2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election

Not to be confused with 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election

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Riding of Scarborough Southwest
CPC NDP Candidate Doly Begum TBD TBD Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic Last election 61.41% 30.68% 4.98%
Incumbent MP Vacant [a]

A by-election will be held in the federal riding of Scarborough Southwest in Ontario, Canada, following the announced resignation of incumbent Liberal MP Bill Blair on February 2, 2026.

Background

Early speculation

In September 2025, The Globe and Mail reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney was considering appointing former cabinet minister Bill Blair to a senior diplomatic post, with sources indicating he was being considered for the role of Canada’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. The report said the potential appointment was viewed as part of an effort to recognize former senior ministers and create opportunities to recruit new cabinet talent following the formation of Carney’s government. ^[1]

The article noted that Blair, who had served as minister of national defence and minister of public safety, had not been included in Carney’s new cabinet despite being regarded by sources as a competent minister. It also reported that his riding of Scarborough Southwest was considered a safe Liberal seat in the event a by-election were triggered by a diplomatic appointment. ^[1]

In January 2026, CBC News reported that Blair was among former ministers expected to receive diplomatic appointments that would require them to vacate their seats, citing prior media reporting and statements from the prime minister indicating that multiple by-elections were anticipated. ^[2]

Neither Blair nor his office provided public comment at the time of the reports, and no appointment timeline was announced. ^{[1] [2]}

Announcement

On February 2, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that former cabinet minister Bill Blair would resign as member of Parliament for Scarborough Southwest to accept an appointment as Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom. Blair previously served as Toronto’s chief of police before being elected to the House of Commons in 2015, and later held cabinet positions including minister of public safety and minister of national defence. ^{[3] [4]}

Blair’s departure resulted in a vacancy in Scarborough Southwest and marked the second Toronto-area seat to be vacated in 2026, following Chrystia Freeland’s resignation earlier in the year. The appointment filled a diplomatic vacancy created by the conclusion of Ralph Goodale’s posting in London. ^{[3] [4]}

Constituency

Main article: Scarborough Southwest (federal electoral district)

Scarborough Southwest is an urban riding in the southwestern part of Scarborough in Toronto, encompassing the area from Lake Ontario in the south to Eglinton Avenue East in the north, and from Victoria Park Avenue in the west to Markham Road in the east. It includes the neighbourhoods of Birch Cliff, Oakridge, Cliffside, Kennedy Park, Clairlea, and Cliffcrest, as well as parts of Scarborough Village and the Golden Mile.

The seat has been held by the Liberals since its creation in 1996.

Candidates

Liberal Party

On February 3, 2026, the Liberal Party appointed Ontario MPP and Ontario New Democratic Party deputy leader Doly Begum as their candidate. She announced her resignation from the ONDP and the Ontario legislature on the same day. ^[5] She resigned from the Ontario NDP on the same day as well as her seat in the Ontario legislature. ^[6]

Result

v t e Canadian federal by-election, TBD 2026 : Scarborough Southwest Resignation of Bill Blair
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Doly Begum
	Conservative	TBD
	New Democratic	TBD
	Green	TBD
Total valid votes/expense limit
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters
Source:

Previous result

v t e 2025 Canadian federal election : Scarborough Southwest
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Bill Blair	33,395	61.41	+3.45
	Conservative	Asm Tarun	16,682	30.68	+10.09
	New Democratic	Fatima Shaban	2,710	4.98	–11.01
	Green	Amanda Cain	753	1.38	–0.87
	People's	Michael Poulin	565	1.04	–1.84
	Centrist	Imran Khan	165	0.30	N/A
	Marxist–Leninist	Christine Nugent	113	0.21	N/A
Total valid votes/expense limit
Total rejected ballots
Turnout			54,383	63.56
Eligible voters			85,555
	Liberal notional hold		Swing		–3.72
Source: Elections Canada [7] [8]

See also

• By-elections to the 45th Canadian Parliament

Notes

1. Seat last held by Bill Blair (Liberal)

References

1. Fife, Robert (September 3, 2025). "Two former Liberal cabinet ministers in line for top diplomatic posts, sources say". The Globe and Mail . Retrieved February 2, 2026.
2. Major, Darren (January 26, 2026). "Freeland resignation shakes up already fluid situation in House of Commons". CBC News . Retrieved February 2, 2026.
3. Robertson, Dylan (February 2, 2026). "Bill Blair to resign Toronto seat, become next high commissioner to U.K." The Globe and Mail . Retrieved February 2, 2026.
4. Press, The Canadian (February 2, 2026). "Bill Blair resigning seat, will become next high commissioner to U.K." CTV News . Retrieved February 2, 2026.
5. Tumilty, Ryan (February 3, 2026). "Mark Carney's Liberals recruit Ontario NDP deputy leader to run in Scarborough byelection". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
6. "Ontario NDP MPP resigns to run for federal Liberals in upcoming byelection". Global News. February 3, 2026. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
7. "Voter information service". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 18, 2025.
8. "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. April 29, 2025. Retrieved April 29, 2025.