2025 Ontario general election

Last updated

2025 Ontario general election
Flag of Ontario.svg
  2022 February 27, 2025 Next  

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout45.40% (Increase2.svg1.34 pp) [1]
 First partySecond party
  Doug Ford at Building Faster Fund announcement 2024-03-22 02 (cropped).jpg Marit Stiles - May 18, 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election83 seats, 40.83%31 seats, 23.74%
Seats before7928
Seats won8027
Seat changeIncrease2.svg1Decrease2.svg1
Popular vote2,158,452931,796
Percentage42.97%18.55%
SwingIncrease2.svg2.14pp Decrease2.svg5.19pp

 Third partyFourth party
  Bonnie Crombie Centennial Park Aug 2022 (cropped).jpg Gpo-mike-schreiner-headshot-2021-bricks (cropped).jpg
Leader Bonnie Crombie Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since December 2, 2023 November 15, 2009
Leader's seatRan in Mississauga East—Cooksville (lost) Guelph
Last election8 seats, 23.85%1 seat, 5.96%
Seats before92
Seats won142
Seat changeIncrease2.svg5Steady2.svg
Popular vote1,504,688242,822
Percentage29.95%4.83%
SwingIncrease2.svg6.10pp Decrease2.svg1.13pp

Ontario Election 2025 Results Map.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding.

Ontario 2025 General Election seat result.svg
Composition of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario after the election

Premier before election

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

The 2025 Ontario general election was held on February 27, 2025, to elect the 124 members of the 44th Parliament of Ontario. [2] Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives were re-elected to a third consecutive majority government, the first time a party has done so since 1959. [3] The PCs increased their vote share to 43%, however lost three seats compared to 2022. [4] The New Democratic Party led by Marit Stiles retained its status as the Official Opposition, [5] albeit with four fewer seats than in 2022 and while finishing a distant third in the popular vote. The Ontario Liberal Party finished second in the popular vote but won just fourteen seats, although this five-seat increase was enough for the Liberals to regain official party status in the legislature for the first time since 2018. Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie however failed to win her seat in Mississauga East—Cooksville, losing to the PC candidate.

Contents

The Greens held their two seats, including leader Mike Schreiner, although suffering a slight drop in popularity. Incumbent independent MPP Bobbi Ann Brady held her seat in Haldimand-Norfolk, winning the second-largest margin in the province. [6]

Background

Under the Ontario Elections Act, general elections must be held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election. [7] As the previous election was held on June 2, 2022, this election was anticipated to be held on June 4, 2026. However, it had been speculated since early 2024 that Premier Doug Ford would call a snap election to take advantage of a lead in the polls and fundraising, as well as a desire to hold the election before the next federal election, which, at that time, the federal Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre was considered extremely likely to win. [8] [9] This speculation was fueled in May 2024, when Ford refused to commit to the June 2026 date when asked by reporters at multiple press conferences for confirmation. [10] [11] [12] [8]

On January 23, 2025, multiple news outlets reported that Ford would visit Edith Dumont, the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario, on January 29 to ask for the 43rd Provincial Parliament to be dissolved, triggering an election to be held on February 27. [13] [14] [15] This speculation was confirmed by Ford at a press conference on January 24. [16] On January 28, he met with Dumont; the Provincial Parliament was formally dissolved, with a writ of election issued the next day. [17] [2] [18] The election cost approximately $189 million. [19] [20]

Electoral districts

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 [21] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, [22] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. [23] [24] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. [25]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the next provincial election. [26] As Northern Ontario lost a seat in the federal process, further adjustments would have been needed to maintain their extra provincial representation, which would have resulted in an extra additional riding. [27]

Timeline

2022

2023

2025

Seat changes

43rd Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2022–2025)
Party2022Gain/(loss) due to2025
Resignation
as MPP
Resignation
from caucus
ExpulsionByelection
gain
Byelection
hold
Progressive Conservative 83(4)(2)(1)379
New Democratic 31(2)(2)128
Liberal 8(1)119
Green 112
Independent 1236
Total124(7)25124
Changes in seats held since June 2, 2022
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Hamilton Centre August 15, 2022 Andrea Horwath [37] [38]   New Democratic Resignation from legislature. [a 1] March 16, 2023 Sarah Jama [39]   New Democratic
Don Valley North March 10, 2023 Vincent Ke [40]   PC Resignation from caucus. [a 2]   Independent
Kanata—Carleton March 24, 2023 Merrilee Fullerton [41]   PC Resignation from legislature. July 27, 2023 Karen McCrimmon [42]   Liberal
Algoma—Manitoulin March 31, 2023 Michael Mantha [43]   New Democratic Expelled from caucus. [a 3]   Independent
Scarborough—Guildwood May 10, 2023 Mitzie Hunter [44]   Liberal Resignation from legislature. [a 4] July 27, 2023 Andrea Hazell [45]   Liberal
Kitchener Centre July 13, 2023 Laura Mae Lindo [46] [47]   New Democratic Resignation from legislature. [a 5] November 30, 2023 Aislinn Clancy [48]   Green
Mississauga East—Cooksville September 20, 2023 Kaleed Rasheed [49]   PC Resignation from caucus. [a 6]   Independent
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex September 22, 2023 Monte McNaughton [50]   PC Resignation from legislature [a 7] May 2, 2024 Steve Pinsonneault   PC
Hamilton Centre October 23, 2023 Sarah Jama [51]   New Democratic Expelled from caucus. [a 8]   Independent
Milton January 25, 2024 Parm Gill [52]   PC Resignation from legislature. [a 9] May 2, 2024 Zee Hamid   PC
Carleton June 28, 2024 Goldie Ghamari [53]   PC Expelled from caucus. [a 10]   Independent
Bay of Quinte August 16, 2024 Todd Smith [54]   PC Resignation from legislature. [a 7] September 19, 2024 Tyler Allsopp   PC
  1. to run for Mayor of Hamilton.
  2. due to allegations that he was involved in the 2019 Canadian Parliament infiltration plot.
  3. over workplace misconduct allegations.
  4. to run for Mayor of Toronto.
  5. to accept position at the University of Waterloo
  6. after contradictory claims were made regarding a Las Vegas business trip.
  7. 1 2 to accept position in the private sector
  8. over comments made regarding the Gaza war
  9. to run in the next federal election
  10. after meeting with far-right activist Tommy Robinson

By-election results

Analysis of byelections by turnout and vote share for winning candidate (vs 2022)
Riding and winning partyTurnoutVote share for winning candidate
%Change (pp)%Change (pp)
Hamilton Centre   New Democratic Hold21.97−15.97
 
54.28−2.98
 
Kanata—Carleton   Liberal Gain35.14−16.24
 
34.5320.44
 
Scarborough—Guildwood   Liberal Hold21.84−19.79
 
36.55−9.75
 
Kitchener Centre   Green Gain27.28−18.94
 
47.9935.19
 
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex   Progressive Conservative Hold30.25−17.08
 
56.85−1.96
 
Milton   Progressive Conservative Hold27.72−14.99
 
47.043.97
 
Bay of Quinte   Progressive Conservative Hold38.45−7.46
 
38.69−10.61
 

Candidates

Incumbents not standing for re-election

As of the candidate nomination deadline, 12 incumbent MPPs chose not to run in the 2025 Ontario election:

Electoral districtIncumbent at dissolutionDate announced
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound   Rick Byers [55] September 10, 2024
Carleton   Goldie Ghamari [a 1] [56] January 31, 2025
Eglinton—Lawrence   Robin Martin [57] November 1, 2024
Hamilton Mountain   Monique Taylor [58] September 9, 2024
Mississauga East—Cooksville   Kaleed Rasheed [a 1] [59] October 11, 2024
Nepean   Lisa MacLeod [60] September 13, 2024
Ottawa Centre   Joel Harden [58] March 15, 2024
Parkdale—High Park   Bhutila Karpoche [58] September 29, 2024
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke   John Yakabuski [61] November 20, 2024
Sault Ste. Marie   Ross Romano [62] December 12, 2024
Wellington—Halton Hills   Ted Arnott [63] October 15, 2024
York South—Weston   Michael Ford [64] January 24, 2025
  1. 1 2 Previously elected as Progressive Conservative

Campaign

Ford's PCs launched their campaign in Windsor, in front of the Ambassador Bridge. Stiles' NDP launched their campaign in Toronto, while Crombie's Liberals launched their campaign in Barrie. Schreiner's Green's launched their campaign with a speech in Queen's Park. [65]

Contests

Candidate contests in the ridings
Candidates nominatedRidingsParty
PCGreenNDPLibNBOntIndLtnNOTAModOthTotals
311113
45555520
53030303030241113150
644444444434017954410264
724242424242413182438168
817171717171711984316136
93333333421227
Total124124124123123108444117131239768

Issues

In January 2025, Ford began to state that he would need a "clear mandate" from voters to respond to the tariffs on Canadian imports to the United States threatened by the newly re-elected President Donald Trump. [66] [67] A video taken on the day of the 2024 US presidential election was later released showing Ford stating that he was "100% happy" that Trump won, until Trump threatened tariffs on Canada. [68]

2025 Ontario election – issues and respective party platforms
IssuePCNDPLiberalGreen
Education
  • Invest an additional $830 million a year to clear the repair backlog within 10 years while keeping up with school maintenance needs. [69]
  • Create a universal School Food Program and use fresh food prepared and grown in Ontario.
  • End the practice of streaming.
  • Invest in Francophone education in French school boards and French immersion programs in the English system.
  • More school transportation funding.
  • Clearing the backlog in school repairs, supporting students with special needs, and extending OHIP to cover mental health care. [70]
Energy and Environment
  • Permanently cutting the provincial tax on gas by 5.7 cents per litre and on diesel by 5.3 cents.
  • Working with Indigenous communities to conserve 30% of natural areas by 2030.
  • End reliance on fossil fuels, invest in low-cost renewables and build climate-friendly transit options. [71]
Healthcare
  • Investing $1.8 billion more to connect everyone in Ontario to a family doctor and primary care.
  • Hiring of at least 15,000 nurses over the next three years to ensure safe staffing ratios and end the reliance on private agencies. [72]
  • Expand healthcare in Northern Ontario by hiring 350 doctors, including 200 family physicians and 150 specialists.
  • Establish a Northern Command Centre to manage capacity across the North.
  • Fast-track solutions in the first 100 days—more family health teams, shorter specialist wait times, and flexible care options.
  • Clear the path for 13,000 internationally trained doctors and increase residency spots province-wide. [73]
  • Guarantee a Family Doctor for all Ontarians by 2029. [74]
  • Two new hospitals in Huntsville and Bracebridge.
Housing
  • Create 60,000 new supportive housing units. [75]
  • Double the supply of permanently affordable homes, legalize fourplexes and increase density around transit, and provide funding for non-profit and co-op housing providers.
  • Reintroduce rent control, stopping unethical evictions.
  • Upload shelter funding to the provincial government. [76]
  • Eliminating the provincial Land Transfer Tax for first-time homebuyers, seniors downsizing, and non-profit home builders. [77]
  • Scrapping Development Charges on new middle-class housing, which can add up to $170,000 on the price of a new home, and replacing them with a Better Communities Fund to ensure that the province invests in and benefits from sustainable municipal growth. [78]
  • Introducing fair, phased-in rent control similar to Manitoba, resolving Landlord-Tenant Board disputes within two months, and establishing the Rental Emergency Support for Tenants (REST) Fund to help vulnerable renters avoid eviction during financial emergencies. [79]
  • Allowing for the construction of fourplexes and four-storey buildings as of right across the province and sixplexes in cities over 500,000, and midrise buildings of up to 6-11 storeys on transit corridors and main streets.
  • Removing development charges on homes, condos and apartment units under 2,000 square feet that are built within urban boundaries, and creating an Affordable Communities Fund to cover municipalities’ housing infrastructure costs.
  • Removing the Land Transfer Tax for first-time homebuyers. [80]
Agriculture
  • Immediately increasing funding to expand business risk management programs by $150 million annually.
  • Prioritizing Ontario-grown food by developing local procurement guidelines for public sector purchases, and establishing a fund to increase local processing capacity.
  • Creating an AgTech Innovation Fund.
  • Introducing a provincial program to pay farmers for environmental goods and services by working with organizations such as ALUS (Alternative Land Use Services).
  • Establish an Ontario Foodbelt to protect farmland. [81]
Infrastructure
  • Investing up to $15 billion more over three years to speed up key capital projects, including widening the QEW between Burlington and St. Catharines. [82]
  • Providing another $5 billion for the Building Ontario Fund, for a total of $8 billion, to invest in housing, long-term care, energy, transportation and municipal infrastructure projects.
  • Increasing the Community Sport and Recreation Fund by $300 million to help build more rinks, arenas, sports centres and other community infrastructure.
  • $56 million to upgrade and repair Highway 174 prior to it being uploaded to the province. [83]
  • $50 million to upgrade rural roads and highways outside the downtown core.
Social assistance
  • Double ODSP payments. [84]
  • Overhaul WSIB.
  • Expand workers’ health care benefits so they can receive the treatments they need, including mental health care. [85]
  • Create a Monthly Grocery Rebate
  • Forcing large retailers to publicly post when they raise prices more than two per cent in a week.
  • New watchdog to enforce competition laws and keep food prices fair. [86]
  • Double ODSP payments. [87]
Taxation
  • Cut the income tax rate for the middle-class. [88]
  • Eliminate sales tax (HST) on home heating and hydro bills.
Transportation
  • Investing more than $200 billion to build roads, highways, transit and other infrastructure projects while investing over $2.5 billion to train more than one million people for better jobs and bigger paycheques in the skilled trades.
  • Upload the upload Ottawa LRT system to the provincial government.
  • More than $50 million to design and build a new interchange at Highway 416 and Barnsdale Road.
  • $80 million to support the Kanata North Transitway.
  • Taking tolls off Highway 407 East, which runs between Brock Road in Pickering and Highway 115 in Clarington.
  • Legislation to ban use of congestion pricing on all provincial and municipal roadways. [89]
  • Upload the Ottawa LRT system to the provincial government. [90]
Tariff response
  • $10 billion in cash-flow support for Ontario employers. [91]
  • $3 billion in payroll tax and premium relief.
  • $120 million to support approximately 18,000 bars and restaurants.
  • $40 million for a new Trade-Impacted Communities Program.
  • $300 million to expand the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit.
  • $600 million for the Invest Ontario Fund.
  • Create a Premier's Task Force on the Economy with business, labour and civil society. [92]
  • Invest in retraining opportunities in post-secondary and the skilled trades.
  • Removing the cap from the Risk Management Program.
  • Promote interprovincial cooperation and break down trade barriers.
  • Launch a Buy Ontario campaign to promote Ontario goods.
  • Direct Ontario government-funded agencies to procure locally.
  • Negotiate a joint federal-provincial income assistance program to support people whose livelihoods are impacted by tariffs.
  • Support Canada's national tariff response.
  • Offer a bonus to nurses and doctors who return to Canada from the U.S.
  • Remove the hidden tax on home building and introduce phased-in rent control.
  • Cut the small business tax rate in half, 3.2% to 1.6%, and increase the eligible income threshold.
  • End the Starlink contract with the provincial government. [93]
  • Immediately create a ‘tariff taskforce’ that works across party, jurisdictional and sectoral lines to defend Ontario workers, jobs and companies in trade negotiations.
  • Create an investment tax credit.
  • Create a Protect Ontario Fund for businesses disproportionately impacted by tariffs. [94]

Party slogans

PartyEnglishFrench (translation)
  PC "Protect Ontario"Unofficial: "Protéger l'Ontario" [95]
  New Democratic "On Your Side""À vos côtés" [95]
  Liberal "More For You" [96] "Plus Pour Vous"
  Green "People Before Profits" [97]

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type PC NDP Liberal Green
Media
  • Toronto Star [98] endorsed the NDP, Liberals, and Greens, and encouraged Ontarians to vote strategically to prevent a PC majority
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations

Debates

Results

Elections to the 44th Parliament of Ontario (2025) [165]
PartyLeaderCandidatesVotesSeats
#±%Change (pp) 2022 2025±
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 1242,159,060239,155Increase2.svg42.992.16
 
83
80 / 124
3Decrease2.svg
Liberal Bonnie Crombie 1231,505,093381,028Increase2.svg29.976.06
 
8
14 / 124
6Increase2.svg
New Democratic Marit Stiles 123931,016185,367Decrease2.svg18.54-5.20
 
31
27 / 124
4Decrease2.svg
Green Mike Schreiner 124242,32037,686Decrease2.svg4.83-1.13
 
1
2 / 124
1Increase2.svg
New Blue Jim Karahalios 10880,03347,429Decrease2.svg1.59-1.12
 
  Independent 4153,92628,594Increase2.svg1.070.53
 
1
1 / 124
Steady2.svg
Ontario Party Derek Sloan 4426,00757,611 Decrease2.svg0.52-1.26
 
Libertarian Mark Snow177,6722,430Increase2.svg0.150.04
None of the Above Greg Vezina134,7241,478Decrease2.svg0.09-0.04
Communist Drew Garvie72,294194Increase2.svg0.050.01
Moderate Yuri Duboisky121,857239Increase2.svg0.040.01
CentristMansoor Qureshi51,6011,306Increase2.svg0.030.02
Freedom Paul McKeever51,376727Decrease2.svg0.03-0.01
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda John Kanary21,3531,013Increase2.svg0.030.02
Populist Jim Torma47091,929Decrease2.svg0.01-0.05
Northern Ontario Jacques Ouellette3656373Increase2.svg0.01
Ontario Alliance Joshua E. Eriksen5623515Increase2.svg0.010.01
Progress Party OntarioSana Ahmad2602602Increase2.svg0.01New
Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar258618Increase2.svg0.01
Special Needs Lionel Wayne Poizner2392102Increase2.svg0.01
Electoral Reform PartyPeter House224260Increase2.svg
Consensus Ontario did not campaign
Confederation of Regions
Freedom of Choice, Peace & Justice Party
People's Political Party
People's Progressive Common Front
Public Benefit Party
Total7685,022,142100.00%
Rejected ballots34,7914,274Increase2.svg
Turnout5,056,933324,457Increase2.svg45.22%1.16Increase2.svg
Registered electors11,183,586443,160Increase2.svg

    Vote and seat summaries

    Synopsis of results

    Results by riding - 2025 Ontario general election [165]
    Riding [a 1] Winning partyVotes [a 2]
    2022 1st placeVotesShareMargin
    #
    Margin
    %
    2nd place3rd place PC Lib NDP Green NB Ont SNSA IndOtherTotal
     
    Ajax PCLib18,49944.96%3310.80%PCNDP18,16818,4992,88486641331241,142
    Algoma—Manitoulin NDPPC11,26341.33%3,85414.14%NDPLib11,2633,9487,4096777183,23827,253
    Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCPC19,67057.19%8,02523.33%LibNDP19,67011,6451,92961054034,394
    Barrie—Innisfil PCPC22,04854.11%11,43528.06%LibNDP22,04810,6135,4421,65581417440,746
    Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCPC20,07349.88%5,74114.27%LibNDP20,07314,3322,7101,63785663740,245
    Bay of Quinte PCPC20,60644.14%5,95412.75%LibNDP20,60614,6528,7931,61851850146,688
    Beaches—East York LibLib21,54551.17%11,88528.23%NDPPC9,00121,5459,6601,29824612512210742,104
    Brampton Centre PCPC12,77651.85%4,41917.94%LibNDP12,7768,3572,16191043424,638
    Brampton East PCPC14,75951.77%6,24821.92%LibNDP14,7598,5113,1047571,37628,507
    Brampton North PCPC17,59757.52%8,32727.22%LibNDP17,5979,2702,47974649930,591
    Brampton South PCPC15,37952.53%5,84919.98%LibNDP15,3799,5302,4139111,04229,275
    Brampton West PCPC19,02856.58%8,09524.07%LibNDP19,02810,9331,98187755426033,633
    Brantford—Brant PCPC24,16947.23%12,16423.77%NDPLib24,16910,36412,0052,5971,13889951,172
    Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCPC20,15844.14%6,71314.70%LibGreen20,15813,4453,6115,6939301,00682945,672
    Burlington PCPC24,11843.14%390.07%LibNDP24,11824,0794,4871,91372758255,906
    Cambridge PCPC19,21043.66%4,0799.27%LibNDP19,21015,1315,0742,5192,06744,001
    Carleton PCPC26,15849.61%5,82311.04%LibNDP26,15820,3353,76395669934620226352,722
    Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCPC22,25552.03%14,39933.66%LibNDP22,2557,8567,3331,2413,38770442,776
    Davenport NDPNDP22,14357.07%14,16036.49%LibPC6,9377,98322,1431,18455638,803
    Don Valley East LibLib15,46556.65%6,68124.47%PCNDP8,78415,4652,09477818027,301
    Don Valley North PCLib13,37543.77%1,8916.19%PCInd11,48413,3751,5627843463,00530,556
    Don Valley West LibLib18,35057.21%7,48023.32%PCNDP10,87018,3501,2681,05228724732,074
    Dufferin—Caledon PCPC26,07252.49%13,46627.11%LibGreen26,07212,6063,1846,1571,07438419749,674
    Durham PCPC26,96750.48%11,26621.09%LibNDP26,96715,7017,6351,28066640913063553,423
    Eglinton—Lawrence PCPC19,55648.48%1670.41%LibGreen19,55619,3891,39040,335
    Elgin—Middlesex—London PCPC28,72055.78%16,12231.31%LibNDP28,72012,5984,7382,9331,41861046951,486
    Essex PCPC30,79055.61%18,74333.85%NDPLib30,7908,70712,0471,28294093120046955,366
    Etobicoke Centre PCPC22,26148.10%2,9036.27%LibNDP22,26119,3582,1511,00065885146,279
    Etobicoke—Lakeshore PCLib25,19548.52%4,1457.98%PCNDP21,05025,1953,6401,21845236951,924
    Etobicoke North PCPC15,42659.40%8,05731.02%LibNDP15,4267,3692,06752617740525,970
    Flamborough—Glanbrook PCPC23,79049.38%8,65517.97%LibNDP23,79015,1356,0951,9231,23348,176
    Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PCPC24,61851.36%6,86614.32%LibNDP24,61817,7522,3841,08997180032147,935
    Guelph GreenGreen34,23856.94%19,85233.01%PCLib14,3866,8743,49734,2381,13760,132
    Haldimand—Norfolk IndInd33,66963.65%20,72039.17%PCLib12,9492,9182,14782139233,66952,896
    Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCPC26,44652.03%14,77029.06%LibNDP26,44611,6766,9802,5931,22196928765950,831
    Hamilton Centre NDPNDP12,83938.36%5,70717.05%LibPC6,3317,13212,8391,6424415,084 [a 3] 33,469
    Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PCPC16,40142.07%4,07810.46%LibNDP16,40112,3236,8622,04953059522338,983
    Hamilton Mountain NDPPC13,94836.16%2,0155.22%LibNDP13,94811,93310,0371,54439217826727838,577
    Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDPNDP19,68438.87%2,9185.76%PCLib16,76611,54319,6841,74758731050,637
    Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCPC20,24948.58%7,85118.84%LibNDP20,24912,3984,8101,3765282,31841,679
    Humber River—Black Creek NDPNDP8,78835.33%1930.78%PCLib8,5956,8118,78840228024,876
    Huron—Bruce PCPC24,46150.02%10,75822.00%LibNDP24,46113,7035,7392,7272,06520648,901
    Kanata—Carleton PCLib22,81147.91%3,4587.26%PCNDP19,35322,8113,4191,19950332347,608
    Kenora—Rainy River PCPC10,54159.93%7,23341.12%NDPLib10,5413,0723,30833633317,590
    King—Vaughan PCPC28,52764.17%16,07436.16%LibNDP28,52712,4531,71493456925644,453
    Kingston and the Islands LibLib33,28861.57%21,26639.33%PCNDP12,02233,2886,6631,19556533154,064
    Kitchener Centre NDPGreen21,20051.39%11,20927.17%PCLib9,9915,8922,82121,20080439814441,250
    Kitchener—Conestoga PCPC16,94641.54%4,91512.05%LibNDP16,94612,0317,5512,2271,15289040,797
    Kitchener South—Hespeler PCPC17,36345.42%7,53319.71%LibNDP17,3639,8306,8413,34584638,225
    Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCPC25,29753.55%12,90027.31%LibNDP25,29712,3975,7751,6772,09347,239
    Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCPC23,39649.10%7,76916.30%LibNDP23,39615,6275,0301,59569598232847,653
    Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PCPC25,11855.12%12,72627.93%LibNDP25,11812,3924,4891,92674356134245,571
    London—Fanshawe NDPNDP18,74947.59%5,26913.37%PCLib13,4804,88418,7491,04565420538139,398
    London North Centre NDPNDP22,58746.71%6,80414.07%PCLib15,7837,55722,5871,60551231248,356
    London West NDPNDP26,58949.21%7,69714.24%PCLib18,8925,99126,5891,02163615375154,033
    Markham—Stouffville PCPC22,75750.64%4,1339.20%LibNDP22,75718,6242,0511,01849144,941
    Markham—Thornhill PCPC14,28753.58%3,70713.90%LibNDP14,28710,5801,17662326,666
    Markham—Unionville PCPC20,11361.16%9,95530.27%LibNDP20,11310,1581,29877254532,886
    Milton PCPC20,09147.43%2,5406.00%LibNDP20,09117,5512,4031,13086631642,357
    Mississauga Centre PCPC16,59246.79%2,0315.73%LibNDP16,59214,5612,3101,02844319533435,463
    Mississauga East—Cooksville PCPC16,76446.43%1,2103.35%LibNDP16,76415,5541,87974442919242811836,108
    Mississauga—Erin Mills PCPC16,69444.26%230.06%LibNDP16,69416,6712,0901,08075143137,717
    Mississauga—Lakeshore PCPC20,58647.54%1,6713.86%LibNDP20,58618,9151,9741,04154912311343,301
    Mississauga—Malton PCPC15,11750.94%3,61812.19%LibNDP15,11711,4992,00056149829,675
    Mississauga—Streetsville PCPC19,11847.71%1,8214.54%LibNDP19,11817,2972,0121,01263040,069
    Nepean PCLib22,68348.53%4,72110.10%PCNDP17,96222,6834,11688548538522346,739
    Newmarket—Aurora PCPC20,26047.56%2,5375.96%LibNDP20,26017,7232,7091,08853628642,602
    Niagara Centre NDPNDP20,40842.18%2,3354.83%PCLib18,0737,14320,4081,26185751313048,385
    Niagara Falls NDPNDP29,54954.95%10,98020.42%PCLib18,5693,39829,54983787028526353,771
    Niagara West PCPC22,91651.13%11,82526.39%LibNDP22,91611,0917,3121,79467662939944,817
    Nickel Belt NDPNDP17,12348.37%4,49412.69%PCLib12,6293,87417,12363167647035,403
    Nipissing PCPC17,35654.83%9,37629.62%NDPLib17,3563,9967,9801,29249653631,656
    Northumberland—Peterborough South PCPC28,50252.11%10,79719.74%LibNDP28,50217,7055,0971,99871767354,692
    Oakville PCPC22,75448.01%1,8483.90%LibNDP22,75420,9061,8511,2355569347,395
    Oakville North—Burlington PCPC25,58049.70%4,5278.80%LibNDP25,58021,0532,7691,41165951,472
    Orléans LibLib30,48254.18%10,61418.87%PCNDP19,86830,4823,3781,39863626723356,262
    Oshawa NDPNDP20,36745.87%1,9254.34%PCLib18,4423,89120,36791664414244,402
    Ottawa Centre NDPNDP32,48355.70%18,89232.39%LibPC9,57313,59132,4831,55046832110223258,320
    Ottawa South LibLib22,32653.24%12,01128.64%PCNDP10,31522,3267,4471,20663841,932
    Ottawa—Vanier LibLib20,72151.45%11,63628.89%PCNDP9,08520,7217,3502,08351152540,275
    Ottawa West—Nepean NDPNDP20,08749.33%8,39020.60%PCLib11,6977,22920,08797673340,722
    Oxford PCPC27,06155.26%15,71332.09%LibNDP27,06111,3485,3742,1821,3171,41427448,970
    Parkdale—High Park NDPNDP20,50845.35%6,56714.52%LibPC8,05813,94120,5081,96846228345,220
    Parry Sound—Muskoka PCPC21,73146.80%2,3715.11%GreenLib21,7312,8281,32919,36078540346,436
    Perth—Wellington PCPC21,28547.40%8,76619.52%LibNDP21,28512,5195,6663,3811,35447522944,909
    Peterborough—Kawartha PCPC22,41740.68%2,2003.99%LibNDP22,41720,2179,2901,74585958155,109
    Pickering—Uxbridge PCPC21,97548.06%3,9038.54%LibNDP21,97518,0723,3811,30041138420045,723
    Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCPC24,29754.83%14,49332.71%LibNDP24,2979,8046,6071,1238931,58744,311
    Richmond Hill PCPC17,06155.43%6,51521.17%LibNDP17,06110,5461,77188351930,780
    St. Catharines NDPNDP19,68842.12%3,2666.99%PCLib16,4228,09219,6881,0338073003475646,745
    Sarnia—Lambton PCPC22,72651.32%14,01031.64%NDPLib22,7268,1348,7168401,87635989074244,283
    Sault Ste. Marie PCPC13,07143.07%1140.38%NDPLib13,0713,03612,95742156430130,350
    Scarborough—Agincourt PCPC13,46849.39%2,0387.47%LibNDP13,46811,4301,36855624920027,271
    Scarborough Centre PCPC13,36344.05%5241.73%LibNDP13,36312,8392,62891837921130,338
    Scarborough—Guildwood LibLib13,81351.02%3,58913.26%PCNDP10,22413,8131,81166129826727,074
    Scarborough North PCPC13,03152.98%4,48318.23%LibNDP13,0318,5482,55446524,598
    Scarborough—Rouge Park PCPC16,35749.17%2,9728.93%LibNDP16,35713,3852,36072744033,269
    Scarborough Southwest NDPNDP14,55742.89%4,15712.25%PCLib10,4007,78614,5571,19433,937
    Simcoe—Grey PCPC30,57253.59%12,06521.15%LibNDP30,57218,5073,2643,1541,55457,051
    Simcoe North PCPC24,84951.38%11,52123.82%LibNDP24,84913,3284,8133,2141,58257948,365
    Spadina—Fort York NDPNDP20,44145.00%6,11013.45%LibPC9,13914,33120,4411,22029345,424
    Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCPC23,22161.57%15,96742.34%LibNDP23,2217,2544,72698081871537,714
    Sudbury NDPNDP14,76046.74%2,5668.13%PCLib12,1943,35214,76074842110631,581
    Thornhill PCPC22,82963.99%12,72435.66%LibNDP22,82910,1051,28276852317035,677
    Thunder Bay—Atikokan PCPC13,72745.71%5,96119.85%NDPLib13,7277,3987,76645749718430,029
    Thunder Bay—Superior North NDPNDP11,13740.57%1,7896.52%PCLib9,3485,84611,1374372658233627,451
    Timiskaming—Cochrane NDPNDP11,08543.96%1,5366.09%PCLib9,5492,44611,0851,35977725,216
    Timmins PCPC9,37168.41%6,63948.47%NDPLib9,3711,1272,73224822013,698
    Toronto Centre NDPNDP17,41544.50%3,2638.34%LibPC5,69214,15217,4151,05429015138139,135
    Toronto—Danforth NDPNDP25,60760.40%16,61039.18%LibPC6,1728,99725,6071,19942442,399
    Toronto—St. Paul's NDPLib17,45140.87%3,8989.13%NDPPC10,82217,45113,55387342,699
    University—Rosedale NDPNDP17,91245.50%5,81414.77%LibPC7,82912,09817,9121,22729939,365
    Vaughan—Woodbridge PCPC23,24365.13%13,76138.56%LibNDP23,2439,4821,47962850934535,686
    Waterloo NDPNDP25,05550.23%11,38522.82%PCLib13,6707,83925,0551,81454347748649,884
    Wellington—Halton Hills PCPC24,63745.65%9,76318.09%LibGreen24,63714,8743,9808,4641,41739819953,969
    Whitby PCPC24,80348.11%4,3638.46%LibNDP24,80320,4404,0971,37684451,560
    Willowdale PCPC14,47646.29%6051.93%LibNDP14,47613,8711,70577822222131,273
    Windsor—Tecumseh PCPC21,28548.15%7,56417.11%NDPLib21,2856,33713,72183070771760644,203
    Windsor West NDPNDP19,39252.12%4,72712.70%PCOnt14,66519,3928685231,01974037,207
    York Centre PCPC16,41654.06%5,59318.42%LibNDP16,41610,8231,70065830946330,369
    York—Simcoe PCPC24,70559.40%14,76435.50%LibNDP24,7059,9413,2062,00684131757241,588
    York South—Weston PCPC11,14235.22%2020.64%LibNDP11,14210,9408,10184439621331,636
    Kiiwetinoong NDPNDP3,51262.19%2,07436.73%PCLib1,4384093,5121521365,647
    Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDPNDP3,62645.44%90.11%PCLib3,6176213,6261167,980
    1. In order given by Elections Ontario
    2. In order of total votes received. Minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote and with no candidate winning at least 1,000 votes are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately.
    3. The incumbent Sarah Jama was ousted as the NDP candidate. She ran as an Independent, receiving 4,977 votes and coming in at 4th place.
      = open seat
      = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
      = incumbent had switched allegiance
      = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
      = incumbency arose from byelection gain
      = previously incumbent in another riding
      = other incumbents renominated
      = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
      = multiple candidates

    Turnout, winning shares and swings

    Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2022) [165]
    Riding and winning partyTurnoutVote share [a 1] Swing [a 2]
    %Change (pp)%Change (pp)ToChange (pp)
     
    AjaxLibGain41.561.60
     
    44.968.98
     
    Lib-2.76
     
    Algoma—ManitoulinPCGain48.936.46
     
    41.335.85
     
    PC-12.30
     
    Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillPCHold38.300.11
     
    57.193.93
     
    PC0.39
     
    Barrie—InnisfilPCHold41.301.68
     
    54.113.87
     
    PC4.82
     
    Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedontePCHold45.90-0.84
     
    49.887.77
     
    PC6.76
     
    Bay of QuintePCHold48.252.34
     
    44.14-5.17
     
    NDP-1.54
     
    Beaches—East YorkLibHold49.970.39
     
    51.1715.75
     
    Lib13.01
     
    Brampton CentrePCHold36.710.04
     
    51.8510.49
     
    PC14.19
     
    Brampton EastPCHold34.81-1.54
     
    51.777.45
     
    PC13.81
     
    Brampton NorthPCHold38.480.02
     
    57.5212.53
     
    PC5.50
     
    Brampton SouthPCHold36.100.30
     
    52.537.15
     
    PC1.21
     
    Brampton WestPCHold34.770.58
     
    56.588.74
     
    PC1.23
     
    Brantford—BrantPCHold43.411.35
     
    47.233.06
     
    PC3.95
     
    Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundPCHold49.972.95
     
    44.14-4.42
     
    Lib-6.77
     
    BurlingtonPCHold53.591.96
     
    43.140.59
     
    Lib-6.53
     
    CambridgePCHold45.822.60
     
    43.666.63
     
    PC8.65
     
    CarletonPCHold47.10-1.69
     
    49.611.47
     
    Lib-5.11
     
    Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonPCHold48.333.46
     
    52.034.50
     
    PC8.82
     
    DavenportNDPHold46.182.87
     
    57.070.00Lib-0.68
     
    Don Valley EastLibHold40.08-2.29
     
    56.6512.79
     
    Lib6.40
     
    Don Valley NorthLibGain38.04-2.72
     
    43.776.94
     
    Lib-8.38
     
    Don Valley WestLibHold42.43-6.93
     
    57.2113.20
     
    Lib8.98
     
    Dufferin—CaledonPCHold42.790.72
     
    52.492.82
     
    Lib-1.87
     
    DurhamPCHold44.090.38
     
    50.484.63
     
    PC0.06
     
    Eglinton—LawrencePCHold46.730.0048.486.19
     
    Lib-0.46
     
    Elgin—Middlesex—LondonPCHold49.324.54
     
    55.784.70
     
    PC6.85
     
    EssexPCHold50.343.13
     
    55.614.51
     
    PC5.52
     
    Etobicoke CentrePCHold48.11-0.43
     
    48.10-0.49
     
    Lib-4.13
     
    Etobicoke—LakeshoreLibGain46.751.47
     
    48.5212.80
     
    Lib-4.87
     
    Etobicoke NorthPCHold34.120.14
     
    59.403.89
     
    Lib-0.52
     
    Flamborough—GlanbrookPCHold47.961.05
     
    49.383.18
     
    PC6.63
     
    Glengarry—Prescott—RussellPCHold47.381.82
     
    51.369.31
     
    PC5.89
     
    GuelphGreenHold51.121.73
     
    56.942.49
     
    PC-0.52
     
    Haldimand—NorfolkIndHold54.195.31
     
    63.6528.60
     
    Ind17.31
     
    Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockPCHold48.180.05
     
    52.03-0.28
     
    PC0.85
     
    Hamilton CentreNDPHold42.294.36
     
    38.36-18.90
     
    PC-10.67
     
    Hamilton East—Stoney CreekPCHold43.822.87
     
    42.077.48
     
    PC8.61
     
    Hamilton MountainPCGain46.024.54
     
    36.166.15
     
    PC-12.47
     
    Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasNDPHold52.474.02
     
    38.87-1.55
     
    PC-0.83
     
    Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonPCHold49.001.88
     
    48.581.03
     
    PC4.25
     
    Humber River—Black CreekNDPHold34.651.50
     
    35.330.84
     
    NDP2.06
     
    Huron—BrucePCHold54.860.70
     
    50.02-1.95
     
    Lib-5.63
     
    Kanata—CarletonLibGain50.40-0.98
     
    47.9124.49
     
    PC7.05
     
    Kenora—Rainy RiverPCHold47.186.97
     
    59.930.35
     
    PC0.73
     
    King—VaughanPCHold39.890.09
     
    64.176.86
     
    PC3.68
     
    Kingston and the IslandsLibHold49.742.90
     
    61.5723.91
     
    Lib21.37
     
    Kitchener CentreGreenGain46.970.75
     
    51.3938.59
     
    PC-15.65
     
    Kitchener—ConestogaPCHold51.062.18
     
    41.541.51
     
    PC5.94
     
    Kitchener South—HespelerPCHold43.961.80
     
    45.425.51
     
    PC7.02
     
    Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexPCHold51.033.75
     
    53.55-5.25
     
    PC0.68
     
    Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonPCHold51.331.31
     
    49.10-1.02
     
    PC4.56
     
    Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesPCHold51.252.07
     
    55.12-2.57
     
    Lib-5.82
     
    London—FanshaweNDPHold41.274.71
     
    47.590.53
     
    PC-0.46
     
    London North CentreNDPHold46.484.35
     
    46.717.06
     
    NDP2.36
     
    London WestNDPHold49.971.35
     
    49.214.08
     
    NDP1.49
     
    Markham—StouffvillePCHold43.39-1.12
     
    50.642.21
     
    Lib-1.88
     
    Markham—ThornhillPCHold37.20-2.48
     
    53.584.76
     
    PC1.29
     
    Markham—UnionvillePCHold35.88-3.25
     
    61.164.74
     
    Lib-0.24
     
    MiltonPCHold41.98-0.72
     
    47.434.36
     
    Lib-1.34
     
    Mississauga CentrePCHold38.150.01
     
    46.793.19
     
    Lib-2.37
     
    Mississauga East—CooksvillePCHold41.451.87
     
    46.435.51
     
    Lib-2.86
     
    Mississauga—Erin MillsPCHold41.03-0.67
     
    44.262.12
     
    Lib-3.36
     
    Mississauga—LakeshorePCHold46.17-0.77
     
    47.542.45
     
    Lib-3.46
     
    Mississauga—MaltonPCHold36.700.18
     
    50.946.05
     
    Lib-4.15
     
    Mississauga—StreetsvillePCHold44.311.64
     
    47.712.13
     
    Lib-3.84
     
    NepeanLibGain45.28-0.60
     
    48.5314.07
     
    Lib-7.04
     
    Newmarket—AuroraPCHold43.79-0.62
     
    47.562.59
     
    Lib-5.06
     
    Niagara CentreNDPHold48.385.01
     
    42.182.48
     
    NDP0.14
     
    Niagara FallsNDPHold45.011.41
     
    54.956.87
     
    NDP0.95
     
    Niagara WestPCHold54.901.73
     
    51.136.20
     
    PC2.20
     
    Nickel BeltNDPHold50.514.99
     
    48.37-2.41
     
    PC-2.91
     
    NipissingPCHold48.930.65
     
    54.834.62
     
    PC1.53
     
    Northumberland—Peterborough SouthPCHold52.300.58
     
    52.111.18
     
    Lib-3.72
     
    OakvillePCHold49.29-1.00
     
    48.012.57
     
    Lib-3.21
     
    Oakville North—BurlingtonPCHold46.55-0.34
     
    49.702.51
     
    Lib-2.79
     
    OrléansLibHold47.701.11
     
    54.187.92
     
    PC-1.33
     
    OshawaNDPHold41.632.15
     
    45.873.80
     
    PC-0.65
     
    Ottawa CentreNDPHold49.09-1.65
     
    55.701.36
     
    Lib-0.36
     
    Ottawa SouthLibHold42.490.01
     
    53.248.10
     
    Lib3.00
     
    Ottawa—VanierLibHold38.82-0.60
     
    51.459.73
     
    Lib3.84
     
    Ottawa West—NepeanNDPHold45.16-2.27
     
    49.3311.79
     
    NDP3.11
     
    OxfordPCHold48.622.17
     
    55.265.25
     
    PC5.23
     
    Parkdale—High ParkNDPHold51.821.56
     
    45.35-8.61
     
    Lib-4.23
     
    Parry Sound—MuskokaPCHold53.710.62
     
    46.801.43
     
    Green-0.53
     
    Perth—WellingtonPCHold52.682.59
     
    47.400.59
     
    PC4.71
     
    Peterborough—KawarthaPCHold52.180.72
     
    40.682.10
     
    Lib-3.07
     
    Pickering—UxbridgePCHold45.640.35
     
    48.063.63
     
    Lib-5.48
     
    Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokePCHold48.952.66
     
    54.83-6.29
     
    PC1.09
     
    Richmond HillPCHold35.56-0.58
     
    55.433.19
     
    Lib-1.18
     
    St. CatharinesNDPHold49.883.22
     
    42.122.41
     
    PC-0.35
     
    Sarnia—LambtonPCHold50.523.83
     
    51.32-1.40
     
    PC1.97
     
    Sault Ste. MariePCHold49.925.43
     
    43.07-3.82
     
    NDP-2.69
     
    Scarborough—AgincourtPCHold37.34-2.08
     
    49.390.36
     
    Lib-2.32
     
    Scarborough CentrePCHold38.65-2.60
     
    44.058.05
     
    Lib-5.98
     
    Scarborough—GuildwoodLibHold38.63-3.00
     
    51.024.71
     
    PC-3.12
     
    Scarborough NorthPCHold37.00-2.26
     
    52.984.67
     
    Lib-2.57
     
    Scarborough—Rouge ParkPCHold42.43-2.68
     
    49.173.89
     
    Lib-6.26
     
    Scarborough SouthwestNDPHold41.73-2.61
     
    42.89-4.78
     
    PC-1.52
     
    Simcoe—GreyPCHold44.180.66
     
    53.592.41
     
    Lib-5.17
     
    Simcoe NorthPCHold46.11-0.13
     
    51.381.58
     
    PC3.89
     
    Spadina—Fort YorkNDPHold41.957.60
     
    45.00-1.06
     
    Lib-1.80
     
    Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryPCHold42.981.34
     
    61.574.07
     
    Lib-0.68
     
    SudburyNDPHold47.412.81
     
    46.745.89
     
    PC-4.82
     
    ThornhillPCHold39.930.05
     
    63.9910.70
     
    PC0.68
     
    Thunder Bay—AtikokanPCHold49.286.19
     
    45.719.41
     
    PC3.53
     
    Thunder Bay—Superior NorthNDPHold48.915.67
     
    40.576.46
     
    PC-1.59
     
    Timiskaming—CochraneNDPHold48.435.82
     
    43.961.22
     
    PC-1.32
     
    TimminsPCHold41.91-1.62
     
    68.413.61
     
    PC4.82
     
    Toronto CentreNDPHold42.592.77
     
    44.500.73
     
    NDP0.27
     
    Toronto—DanforthNDPHold49.760.32
     
    60.405.00
     
    NDP0.57
     
    Toronto—St. Paul'sLibGain46.91-1.17
     
    40.877.20
     
    Lib-3.60
     
    University—RosedaleNDPHold44.451.25
     
    45.507.95
     
    Lib-1.69
     
    Vaughan—WoodbridgePCHold42.56-1.47
     
    65.1311.35
     
    PC4.26
     
    WaterlooNDPHold51.583.17
     
    50.234.34
     
    NDP0.96
     
    Wellington—Halton HillsPCHold50.692.32
     
    45.65-4.96
     
    PC4.12
     
    WhitbyPCHold46.121.24
     
    48.110.73
     
    PC7.44
     
    WillowdalePCHold37.53-2.31
     
    46.291.63
     
    Lib-3.20
     
    Windsor—TecumsehPCHold45.184.57
     
    48.152.26
     
    NDP-0.54
     
    Windsor WestNDPHold38.715.09
     
    52.129.93
     
    PC-2.05
     
    York CentrePCHold39.940.99
     
    54.068.03
     
    Lib-1.85
     
    York—SimcoePCHold40.291.29
     
    59.402.65
     
    Lib-3.33
     
    York South—WestonPCHold38.600.49
     
    35.22-1.38
     
    PC4.19
     
    KiiwetinoongNDPHold27.00-3.40
     
    62.194.62
     
    NDP2.24
     
    Mushkegowuk—James BayNDPHold41.401.99
     
    45.44-1.74
     
    PC-4.79
     
    1. Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2022.
    2. Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2022; negative points to 2022's second-place party being swung to.

    Changes in party vote shares

    Share change analysis by party and riding (2025 vs 2022) [165]
    RidingGreenLiberalNDPPC
    %Change (pp)%Change (pp)%Change (pp)%Change (pp)
     
    Ajax2.10-1.36
     
    44.968.98
     
    7.01-9.68
     
    44.163.47
     
    Algoma—Manitoulin2.48-0.63
     
    14.495.78
     
    27.19-18.74
     
    41.335.85
     
    Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill1.77-2.12
     
    33.863.14
     
    5.61-2.07
     
    57.193.93
     
    Barrie—Innisfil4.06-2.25
     
    26.057.95
     
    13.36-5.78
     
    54.113.87
     
    Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte4.07-0.23
     
    35.61-5.74
     
    6.73-1.10
     
    49.887.77
     
    Bay of Quinte3.47-2.80
     
    31.3812.93
     
    18.83-2.09
     
    44.14-5.17
     
    Beaches—East York3.08-7.14
     
    51.1715.75
     
    22.94-10.27
     
    21.382.84
     
    Brampton Centre3.690.09
     
    33.928.91
     
    8.77-17.89
     
    51.8510.49
     
    Brampton East2.660.74
     
    29.868.74
     
    10.89-20.17
     
    51.777.45
     
    Brampton North2.44-0.54
     
    30.301.53
     
    8.10-11.71
     
    57.5212.53
     
    Brampton South3.11-0.48
     
    32.554.73
     
    8.24-10.90
     
    52.537.15
     
    Brampton West2.61-0.16
     
    32.516.27
     
    5.89-14.86
     
    56.588.74
     
    Brantford—Brant5.08-1.68
     
    20.257.30
     
    23.46-4.83
     
    47.233.06
     
    Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound12.463.61
     
    29.449.11
     
    7.91-6.01
     
    44.14-4.42
     
    Burlington3.42-3.27
     
    43.0713.65
     
    8.03-9.61
     
    43.140.59
     
    Cambridge5.72-3.25
     
    34.3913.69
     
    11.53-10.66
     
    43.666.63
     
    Carleton1.81-3.67
     
    38.5711.68
     
    7.14-8.53
     
    49.611.47
     
    Chatham-Kent—Leamington2.90-0.47
     
    18.3718.37
     
    17.14-13.13
     
    52.034.50
     
    Davenport3.05-1.77
     
    20.571.36
     
    57.070.0017.883.80
     
    Don Valley East2.85-1.21
     
    56.6512.79
     
    7.67-7.84
     
    32.17-0.02
     
    Don Valley North2.57-1.15
     
    43.776.94
     
    5.11-4.76
     
    37.58-9.82
     
    Don Valley West3.28-2.23
     
    57.2113.20
     
    3.95-5.27
     
    33.89-4.76
     
    Dufferin—Caledon12.39-1.74
     
    25.386.56
     
    6.41-4.36
     
    52.492.82
     
    Durham2.40-1.62
     
    29.394.50
     
    14.29-4.30
     
    50.484.63
     
    Eglinton—Lawrence3.45-0.41
     
    48.077.11
     
    -9.68
     
    48.486.19
     
    Elgin—Middlesex—London5.701.03
     
    24.477.07
     
    9.20-9.00
     
    55.784.70
     
    Essex2.320.29
     
    15.737.14
     
    21.76-6.52
     
    55.614.51
     
    Etobicoke Centre2.16-2.33
     
    41.837.78
     
    4.65-3.96
     
    48.10-0.49
     
    Etobicoke—Lakeshore2.35-2.40
     
    48.5212.80
     
    7.01-10.91
     
    40.543.06
     
    Etobicoke North2.03-0.72
     
    28.384.94
     
    7.96-5.15
     
    59.403.89
     
    Flamborough—Glanbrook3.99-1.45
     
    31.4211.01
     
    12.65-10.09
     
    49.383.18
     
    Glengarry—Prescott—Russell2.27-1.49
     
    37.03-2.46
     
    4.97-3.56
     
    51.369.31
     
    Guelph56.942.49
     
    11.43-1.86
     
    5.82-2.24
     
    23.923.52
     
    Haldimand—Norfolk1.55-2.50
     
    5.52-1.81
     
    4.06-9.83
     
    24.48-6.01
     
    Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock5.10-2.45
     
    22.979.50
     
    13.73-1.99
     
    52.03-0.28
     
    Hamilton Centre4.91-3.86
     
    21.318.28
     
    38.36-18.90
     
    18.922.45
     
    Hamilton East—Stoney Creek5.260.31
     
    31.6110.54
     
    17.60-9.74
     
    42.077.48
     
    Hamilton Mountain4.00-1.62
     
    30.9315.36
     
    26.02-18.79
     
    36.166.15
     
    Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas3.45-1.92
     
    22.804.62
     
    38.87-1.55
     
    33.110.12
     
    Hastings—Lennox and Addington3.30-1.23
     
    29.7511.15
     
    11.54-7.47
     
    48.581.03
     
    Humber River—Black Creek1.62-0.25
     
    27.38-3.28
     
    35.330.84
     
    34.554.80
     
    Huron—Bruce5.581.48
     
    28.029.31
     
    11.74-4.64
     
    50.02-1.95
     
    Kanata—Carleton2.52-2.97
     
    47.9124.49
     
    7.18-17.06
     
    40.65-2.96
     
    Kenora—Rainy River1.91-1.88
     
    17.466.11
     
    18.81-1.11
     
    59.930.35
     
    King—Vaughan2.10-0.60
     
    28.01-0.49
     
    3.86-3.09
     
    64.176.86
     
    Kingston and the Islands2.21-1.07
     
    61.5723.91
     
    12.32-18.83
     
    22.24-2.32
     
    Kitchener Centre51.3938.59
     
    14.28-0.44
     
    6.84-33.75
     
    24.22-2.45
     
    Kitchener—Conestoga5.46-0.70
     
    29.4911.96
     
    18.51-10.36
     
    41.541.51
     
    Kitchener South—Hespeler8.75-2.82
     
    25.729.40
     
    17.90-8.54
     
    45.425.51
     
    Lambton—Kent—Middlesex3.55-0.43
     
    26.2416.66
     
    12.23-6.61
     
    53.55-5.25
     
    Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston3.35-3.40
     
    32.7917.04
     
    10.56-10.14
     
    49.10-1.02
     
    Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes4.23-1.82
     
    27.199.07
     
    9.85-3.72
     
    55.12-2.57
     
    London—Fanshawe2.65-0.85
     
    12.402.03
     
    47.590.53
     
    34.211.45
     
    London North Centre3.32-1.47
     
    15.63-5.29
     
    46.717.06
     
    32.642.35
     
    London West1.89-1.54
     
    11.09-1.10
     
    49.214.08
     
    34.961.11
     
    Markham—Stouffville2.27-1.68
     
    41.445.96
     
    4.56-4.90
     
    50.642.21
     
    Markham—Thornhill2.34-0.22
     
    39.682.17
     
    4.41-4.64
     
    53.584.76
     
    Markham—Unionville2.35-1.32
     
    30.890.47
     
    3.95-3.33
     
    61.164.74
     
    Milton2.67-1.47
     
    41.442.68
     
    5.67-4.03
     
    47.434.36
     
    Mississauga Centre2.90-0.62
     
    41.064.74
     
    6.51-5.77
     
    46.793.19
     
    Mississauga East—Cooksville2.06-1.92
     
    43.085.73
     
    5.20-5.63
     
    46.435.51
     
    Mississauga—Erin Mills2.86-1.42
     
    44.206.72
     
    5.54-6.60
     
    44.262.12
     
    Mississauga—Lakeshore2.40-2.63
     
    43.686.92
     
    4.56-3.94
     
    47.542.45
     
    Mississauga—Malton1.89-2.15
     
    38.758.30
     
    6.74-10.97
     
    50.946.05
     
    Mississauga—Streetsville2.53-0.47
     
    43.177.69
     
    5.02-6.97
     
    47.712.13
     
    Nepean1.89-1.99
     
    48.5314.07
     
    8.81-10.53
     
    38.43-0.83
     
    Newmarket—Aurora2.55-3.06
     
    41.6010.13
     
    6.36-6.36
     
    47.562.59
     
    Niagara Centre2.61-1.92
     
    14.761.44
     
    42.182.48
     
    37.35-0.28
     
    Niagara Falls1.56-1.14
     
    6.32-2.10
     
    54.956.87
     
    34.53-1.90
     
    Niagara West4.00-2.46
     
    24.755.58
     
    16.32-4.40
     
    51.136.20
     
    Nickel Belt1.78-1.21
     
    10.941.05
     
    48.37-2.41
     
    35.675.81
     
    Nipissing4.080.74
     
    12.62-0.91
     
    25.21-3.05
     
    54.834.62
     
    Northumberland—Peterborough South3.65-2.02
     
    32.377.43
     
    9.32-3.80
     
    52.111.18
     
    Oakville2.61-2.58
     
    44.116.42
     
    3.91-2.87
     
    48.012.57
     
    Oakville North—Burlington2.74-1.56
     
    40.905.59
     
    5.38-4.54
     
    49.702.51
     
    Orléans2.48-2.07
     
    54.187.92
     
    6.00-7.79
     
    35.312.66
     
    Oshawa2.06-1.96
     
    8.76-0.37
     
    45.873.80
     
    41.531.29
     
    Ottawa Centre2.66-2.21
     
    23.300.72
     
    55.701.36
     
    16.410.69
     
    Ottawa South2.88-1.78
     
    53.248.10
     
    17.76-5.99
     
    24.601.41
     
    Ottawa—Vanier5.17-2.63
     
    51.459.73
     
    18.25-7.68
     
    22.562.39
     
    Ottawa West—Nepean2.40-1.13
     
    17.75-4.69
     
    49.3311.79
     
    28.72-6.22
     
    Oxford4.46-0.28
     
    23.1710.86
     
    10.97-10.47
     
    55.265.25
     
    Parkdale—High Park4.35-1.71
     
    30.838.45
     
    45.35-8.61
     
    17.823.12
     
    Parry Sound—Muskoka41.691.07
     
    6.096.09
     
    2.86-4.83
     
    46.801.43
     
    Perth—Wellington7.531.21
     
    27.8811.75
     
    12.62-9.43
     
    47.400.59
     
    Peterborough—Kawartha3.17-0.49
     
    36.696.14
     
    16.86-4.52
     
    40.682.10
     
    Pickering—Uxbridge2.84-2.40
     
    39.5210.97
     
    7.39-8.64
     
    48.063.63
     
    Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke2.53-1.12
     
    22.1312.35
     
    14.91-2.19
     
    54.83-6.29
     
    Richmond Hill2.87-0.11
     
    34.262.36
     
    5.75-3.35
     
    55.433.19
     
    St. Catharines2.21-1.88
     
    17.310.68
     
    42.122.41
     
    35.130.70
     
    Sarnia—Lambton1.90-1.25
     
    18.377.92
     
    19.68-3.93
     
    51.32-1.40
     
    Sault Ste. Marie1.39-1.12
     
    10.004.01
     
    42.695.39
     
    43.07-3.82
     
    Scarborough—Agincourt2.04-0.15
     
    41.914.64
     
    5.02-3.76
     
    49.390.36
     
    Scarborough Centre3.030.23
     
    42.3211.95
     
    8.66-17.56
     
    44.058.05
     
    Scarborough—Guildwood2.44-0.38
     
    51.024.71
     
    6.69-9.97
     
    37.766.25
     
    Scarborough North1.890.06
     
    34.755.14
     
    10.38-8.03
     
    52.984.67
     
    Scarborough—Rouge Park2.19-0.22
     
    40.2312.53
     
    7.09-14.83
     
    49.173.89
     
    Scarborough Southwest3.52-0.02
     
    22.944.38
     
    42.89-4.78
     
    30.653.04
     
    Simcoe—Grey5.53-3.44
     
    32.4410.34
     
    5.72-5.34
     
    53.592.41
     
    Simcoe North6.65-2.15
     
    27.5610.11
     
    9.95-7.79
     
    51.381.58
     
    Spadina—Fort York2.69-2.93
     
    31.553.60
     
    45.00-1.06
     
    20.121.74
     
    Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry2.60-1.49
     
    19.231.35
     
    12.53-1.26
     
    61.574.07
     
    Sudbury2.37-2.66
     
    10.61-8.86
     
    46.745.89
     
    38.619.65
     
    Thornhill2.15-1.19
     
    28.32-1.36
     
    3.59-4.22
     
    63.9910.70
     
    Thunder Bay—Atikokan1.52-1.41
     
    24.640.25
     
    25.86-7.07
     
    45.719.41
     
    Thunder Bay—Superior North1.59-1.40
     
    21.30-6.98
     
    40.576.46
     
    34.053.19
     
    Timiskaming—Cochrane5.39-1.13
     
    9.702.68
     
    43.961.22
     
    37.872.64
     
    Timmins1.81-0.43
     
    8.238.23
     
    19.94-9.64
     
    68.413.61
     
    Toronto Centre2.69-2.42
     
    36.16-0.55
     
    44.500.73
     
    14.542.39
     
    Toronto—Danforth2.83-3.25
     
    21.22-1.14
     
    60.405.00
     
    14.561.11
     
    Toronto—St. Paul's2.04-3.41
     
    40.877.20
     
    31.74-4.51
     
    25.342.95
     
    University—Rosedale3.12-12.76
     
    30.733.37
     
    45.507.95
     
    19.892.31
     
    Vaughan—Woodbridge1.76-0.17
     
    26.57-8.51
     
    4.14-1.21
     
    65.1311.35
     
    Waterloo3.64-3.29
     
    15.711.80
     
    50.234.34
     
    27.40-1.93
     
    Wellington—Halton Hills15.681.54
     
    27.5613.58
     
    7.37-8.23
     
    45.65-4.96
     
    Whitby2.67-2.53
     
    39.6418.92
     
    7.95-14.88
     
    48.110.73
     
    Willowdale2.49-1.13
     
    44.356.39
     
    5.45-4.85
     
    46.291.63
     
    Windsor—Tecumseh1.88-0.72
     
    14.34-0.18
     
    31.041.08
     
    48.152.26
     
    Windsor West2.33-0.44
     
    -13.10
     
    52.129.93
     
    39.414.11
     
    York Centre2.17-0.67
     
    35.643.70
     
    5.60-8.39
     
    54.068.03
     
    York—Simcoe4.82-2.52
     
    23.906.65
     
    7.71-3.44
     
    59.402.65
     
    York South—Weston2.670.14
     
    34.5810.34
     
    25.61-8.38
     
    35.22-1.38
     
    Kiiwetinoong2.69-0.63
     
    7.241.34
     
    62.194.62
     
    25.46-4.47
     
    Mushkegowuk—James Bay1.45-0.49
     
    7.78-3.96
     
    45.44-1.74
     
    45.339.57
     
        = did not field a candidate in 2022


      Relative party strengths (measured by swing)

      Party on party swings by riding (PC/Liberal/NDP, 2025 vs 2022) [165] [a 1]
      Riding  
      Liberal/PC
        
      Liberal/NDP
        
      PC/NDP
       
      Ajax-2.76
       
      -9.33
       
      -6.57
       
      Algoma—Manitoulin0.03
       
      -12.26
       
      -12.30
       
      Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill0.39
       
      -2.61
       
      -3.00
       
      Barrie—Innisfil-2.04
       
      -6.87
       
      -4.82
       
      Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte6.76
       
      2.32
       
      -4.43
       
      Bay of Quinte-9.05
       
      -7.51
       
      1.54
       
      Beaches—East York-6.46
       
      -13.01
       
      -6.55
       
      Brampton Centre0.79
       
      -13.40
       
      -14.19
       
      Brampton East-0.64
       
      -14.45
       
      -13.81
       
      Brampton North5.50
       
      -6.62
       
      -12.12
       
      Brampton South1.21
       
      -7.82
       
      -9.03
       
      Brampton West1.23
       
      -10.57
       
      -11.80
       
      Brantford—Brant-2.12
       
      -6.06
       
      -3.95
       
      Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound-6.77
       
      -7.56
       
      -0.79
       
      Burlington-6.53
       
      -11.63
       
      -5.10
       
      Cambridge-3.53
       
      -12.18
       
      -8.65
       
      Carleton-5.11
       
      -10.11
       
      -5.00
       
      Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonN/A [a 2] -8.82
       
      Davenport1.22
       
      -0.68
       
      -1.90
       
      Don Valley East-6.40
       
      -10.32
       
      -3.91
       
      Don Valley North-8.38
       
      -5.85
       
      2.53
       
      Don Valley West-8.98
       
      -9.24
       
      -0.26
       
      Dufferin—Caledon-1.87
       
      -5.46
       
      -3.59
       
      Durham0.06
       
      -4.40
       
      -4.46
       
      Eglinton—Lawrence-0.46
       
      N/A [a 3]
      Elgin—Middlesex—London-1.19
       
      -8.04
       
      -6.85
       
      Essex-1.32
       
      -6.83
       
      -5.52
       
      Etobicoke Centre-4.13
       
      -5.87
       
      -1.74
       
      Etobicoke—Lakeshore-4.87
       
      -11.85
       
      -6.98
       
      Etobicoke North-0.52
       
      -5.04
       
      -4.52
       
      Flamborough—Glanbrook-3.91
       
      -10.55
       
      -6.63
       
      Glengarry—Prescott—Russell5.89
       
      -0.55
       
      -6.44
       
      Guelph2.69
       
      -0.19
       
      -2.88
       
      Haldimand—Norfolk-2.10
       
      -4.01
       
      -1.91
       
      Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock-4.89
       
      -5.75
       
      -0.85
       
      Hamilton Centre-2.91
       
      -13.59
       
      -10.67
       
      Hamilton East—Stoney Creek-1.53
       
      -10.14
       
      -8.61
       
      Hamilton Mountain-4.60
       
      -17.08
       
      -12.47
       
      Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas-2.25
       
      -3.08
       
      -0.83
       
      Hastings—Lennox and Addington-5.06
       
      -9.31
       
      -4.25
       
      Humber River—Black Creek4.04
       
      2.06
       
      -1.98
       
      Huron—Bruce-5.63
       
      -6.97
       
      -1.35
       
      Kanata—Carleton-13.73
       
      -20.78
       
      -7.05
       
      Kenora—Rainy River-2.88
       
      -3.61
       
      -0.73
       
      King—Vaughan3.68
       
      -1.30
       
      -4.97
       
      Kingston and the Islands-13.12
       
      -21.37
       
      -8.25
       
      Kitchener Centre-1.01
       
      -16.65
       
      -15.65
       
      Kitchener—Conestoga-5.22
       
      -11.16
       
      -5.94
       
      Kitchener South—Hespeler-1.94
       
      -8.97
       
      -7.02
       
      Lambton—Kent—Middlesex-10.96
       
      -11.64
       
      -0.68
       
      Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston-9.03
       
      -13.59
       
      -4.56
       
      Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes-5.82
       
      -6.39
       
      -0.57
       
      London—Fanshawe-0.29
       
      -0.75
       
      -0.46
       
      London North Centre3.82
       
      6.18
       
      2.36
       
      London West1.10
       
      2.59
       
      1.49
       
      Markham—Stouffville-1.88
       
      -5.43
       
      -3.55
       
      Markham—Thornhill1.29
       
      -3.41
       
      -4.70
       
      Markham—Unionville2.13
       
      -1.90
       
      -4.04
       
      Milton0.84
       
      -3.36
       
      -4.20
       
      Mississauga Centre-0.78
       
      -5.26
       
      -4.48
       
      Mississauga East—Cooksville-0.11
       
      -5.68
       
      -5.57
       
      Mississauga—Erin Mills-2.30
       
      -6.66
       
      -4.36
       
      Mississauga—Lakeshore-2.24
       
      -5.43
       
      -3.20
       
      Mississauga—Malton-1.12
       
      -9.63
       
      -8.51
       
      Mississauga—Streetsville-2.78
       
      -7.33
       
      -4.55
       
      Nepean-7.45
       
      -12.30
       
      -4.85
       
      Newmarket—Aurora-3.77
       
      -8.24
       
      -4.48
       
      Niagara Centre-0.86
       
      0.52
       
      1.38
       
      Niagara Falls0.10
       
      4.49
       
      4.39
       
      Niagara West0.31
       
      -4.99
       
      -5.30
       
      Nickel Belt2.38
       
      -1.73
       
      -4.11
       
      Nipissing2.77
       
      -1.07
       
      -3.84
       
      Northumberland—Peterborough South-3.13
       
      -5.62
       
      -2.49
       
      Oakville-1.92
       
      -4.64
       
      -2.72
       
      Oakville North—Burlington-1.54
       
      -5.07
       
      -3.53
       
      Orléans-2.63
       
      -7.85
       
      -5.23
       
      Oshawa0.83
       
      2.08
       
      1.25
       
      Ottawa Centre-0.02
       
      0.32
       
      0.34
       
      Ottawa South-3.34
       
      -7.05
       
      -3.70
       
      Ottawa—Vanier-3.67
       
      -8.71
       
      -5.03
       
      Ottawa West—Nepean-0.76
       
      8.24
       
      9.00
       
      Oxford-2.81
       
      -10.67
       
      -7.86
       
      Parkdale—High Park-2.66
       
      -8.53
       
      -5.87
       
      Parry Sound—MuskokaN/A [a 2] -3.13
       
      Perth—Wellington-5.58
       
      -10.59
       
      -5.01
       
      Peterborough—Kawartha-2.02
       
      -5.33
       
      -3.31
       
      Pickering—Uxbridge-3.67
       
      -9.81
       
      -6.14
       
      Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke-9.32
       
      -7.27
       
      2.05
       
      Richmond Hill0.41
       
      -2.86
       
      -3.27
       
      St. Catharines0.01
       
      0.87
       
      0.85
       
      Sarnia—Lambton-4.66
       
      -5.92
       
      -1.27
       
      Sault Ste. Marie-3.92
       
      0.69
       
      4.61
       
      Scarborough—Agincourt-2.14
       
      -4.20
       
      -2.06
       
      Scarborough Centre-1.95
       
      -14.76
       
      -12.81
       
      Scarborough—Guildwood0.77
       
      -7.34
       
      -8.11
       
      Scarborough North-0.24
       
      -6.59
       
      -6.35
       
      Scarborough—Rouge Park-4.32
       
      -13.68
       
      -9.36
       
      Scarborough Southwest-0.67
       
      -4.58
       
      -3.91
       
      Simcoe—Grey-3.97
       
      -7.84
       
      -3.87
       
      Simcoe North-4.27
       
      -8.95
       
      -4.68
       
      Spadina—Fort York-0.93
       
      -2.33
       
      -1.40
       
      Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry1.36
       
      -1.31
       
      -2.67
       
      Sudbury9.25
       
      7.37
       
      -1.88
       
      Thornhill6.03
       
      -1.43
       
      -7.46
       
      Thunder Bay—Atikokan4.58
       
      -3.66
       
      -8.24
       
      Thunder Bay—Superior North5.08
       
      6.72
       
      1.63
       
      Timiskaming—Cochrane-0.02
       
      -0.73
       
      -0.71
       
      TimminsN/A [a 2] -6.62
       
      Toronto Centre1.47
       
      0.64
       
      -0.83
       
      Toronto—Danforth1.13
       
      3.07
       
      1.95
       
      Toronto—St. Paul's-2.13
       
      -5.86
       
      -3.73
       
      University—Rosedale-0.53
       
      2.29
       
      2.82
       
      Vaughan—Woodbridge9.93
       
      3.65
       
      -6.28
       
      Waterloo-1.86
       
      1.27
       
      3.13
       
      Wellington—Halton Hills-9.27
       
      -10.91
       
      -1.64
       
      Whitby-9.09
       
      -16.90
       
      -7.81
       
      Willowdale-2.38
       
      -5.62
       
      -3.24
       
      Windsor—Tecumseh1.22
       
      0.63
       
      -0.59
       
      Windsor WestN/A [a 4] 2.91
       
      York Centre2.16
       
      -6.05
       
      -8.21
       
      York—Simcoe-2.00
       
      -5.04
       
      -3.04
       
      York South—Weston-5.86
       
      -9.36
       
      -3.50
       
      Kiiwetinoong-2.91
       
      1.64
       
      4.55
       
      Mushkegowuk—James Bay6.77
       
      1.11
       
      -5.66
       
      1. Positive swings are for the second party of the pair; negatives are towards the first party shown.
      2. 1 2 3 Liberals did not field a candidate in 2022.
      3. NDP did not field a candidate in 2025.
      4. Liberals did not field a candidate in 2025.


      Party on party swings (Ridings with significant Green presence, 2025 vs 2022) [165] [a 1] [a 2]
      Riding  
      Liberal/PC
        
      Liberal/Green
        
      PC/Green
        
      NDP/Green
       
      Beaches—East York-6.46
       
      -11.44
       
      -4.99
       
      1.57
       
      Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound-6.77
       
      -2.75
       
      4.02
       
      4.81
       
      Dufferin—Caledon-1.87
       
      -4.15
       
      -2.28
       
      1.31
       
      Eglinton—Lawrence-0.46
       
      -3.76
       
      -3.30
       
      N/A
      Guelph2.69
       
      2.17
       
      -0.52
       
      2.36
       
      Kitchener Centre-1.01
       
      19.52
       
      20.52
       
      36.17
       
      Kitchener South—Hespeler-1.94
       
      -6.11
       
      -4.17
       
      2.86
       
      Parry Sound—MuskokaN/A-0.18
       
      2.95
       
      University—Rosedale-0.53
       
      -8.07
       
      -7.54
       
      -10.36
       
      Wellington—Halton Hills-9.27
       
      -6.02
       
      3.25
       
      4.88
       
      1. Positive swings are for the second party of the pair; negatives are towards the first party shown.
      2. Restricted to ridings where the Greens finished in the top three, or otherwise received a share greater than 10%, in either election.
        = Greens met threshold in 2022 only
        = Greens met threshold in 2025 only

      Analysis

      Analytical charts


      Summary

      Party candidates in 2nd place [165]
      Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
      PCNDPLiberalGrn
      Progressive Conservative 1069180
      New Democratic 19827
      Liberal 12214
      Green 22
      Independent 11
      Total3412771124
      Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results [165]
      PartiesSeats
        Progressive Conservative   Liberal 81
        New Democratic   Progressive Conservative 29
        New Democratic   Liberal 10
        Green   Progressive Conservative 3
        Independent   Progressive Conservative 1
      Total124
      Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party [165]
      Parties1st2nd3rd4th5th
        Progressive Conservative 803410
        New Democratic 2712768
        Liberal 147732
        Green 21410213
        Independent 1132
        Ontario Party 126
        New Blue 885
        None of the Above 3
        Communist 2
        Libertarian 2
        Northern Ontario 2
        Moderate 1
       Progress Party Ontario1
        Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda 1

      Seats changing hands

      Of the 124 seats, 13 were open because of MPPs who chose not to stand for reelection, and voters in only 9 seats changed allegiance from the previous election in 2022. Three incumbents ousted from their parties opted to stand as Independents, but none were re-elected.


      Elections to the 43rd Legislative Assembly of Ontario – seats won/lost by party, 2022–2025 [165]
      Party2022Gain from (loss to)2025
      PCNDPLibGrn
      Progressive Conservative 832(5)80
      New Democratic 31(2)(1)(1)27
      Liberal 85114
      Green 112
      Independent 11
      Total1245(2)4(6)(1)124

      There were 9 seats that changed allegiance in the election:


      Of the 9 seats that changed hands:

      • two were open seats where the MPPs chose to retire,
      • two had already switched over in by-elections,
      • two had parties that ousted their incumbents, but still failed to hold onto the seat, and
      • three others saw their incumbents defeated.
      Resulting composition of the 44th Legislative Assembly of Ontario [165]
      SourceParty
      PCNDPLibGrnIndTotal
      Seats retainedIncumbents returned6924811103
      Open seats held9211
      Ouster of incumbents changing affiliation11
      Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated34
      Open seats gained112
      Byelection gains held112
      Ouster of incumbents standing as Independents112
      Total80271421124

      Student Vote results

      Student Vote elections are mock elections that run parallel to real elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by CIVIX Canada, in partnership with Elections Ontario. Student Vote elections are for educational purposes and do not count towards the actual results.

      Summary of the 2025 Ontario Student Vote
      PartyLeaderSeatsVotes
      Elected 2022 ±#%Change
      Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 5117Increase2.svg 3458,18924.14%Increase2.svg 5.45
      New Democratic Marit Stiles 4175Decrease2.svg 3456,57023.47%Decrease2.svg 5.09
      Liberal Bonnie Crombie 2828Steady2.svg57,22823.74%Decrease2.svg 1.68
      Green Mike Schreiner 34Decrease2.svg 137,48915.55%Decrease2.svg 0.44
       Independent10Increase2.svg 15,3622.22%Increase2.svg 1.32
      New Blue Jim Karahalios 00013,6435.66%Increase2.svg 0.07
      Ontario Party Derek Sloan 0005,2212.17%Decrease2.svg 1.78
       Others0007,3413.03%Decrease2.svg 2.11
      Valid votes234,807
      Rejected ballots7,600
      Total votes cast124124Steady2.svg242,407
      Source: Student Vote Ontario 2025 Archived 2025-02-28 at the Wayback Machine

      Opinion polls

      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions. Opinion polling for the 2025 Ontario general election.svg
      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
      Opinion polls conducted during period
      Polling firmLast date
      of polling
      Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of errorSample sizePolling typeLead
      2025 electionFebruary 27, 202542.9718.5529.954.833.7013.02
      Mainstreet Research February 26, 2025 [p 1] 44173064±2.7%1270 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)14
      Nanos Research February 26, 2025 [p 2] 48152664±3.9%630telephone (rolling)/online22
      Forum Research February 26, 2025 [p 3] 41203253±4%1013IVR9
      Pallas DataFebruary 26, 2025 [p 4] 46172952±3.1%989IVR17
      Research Co.February 26, 2025 [p 5] 46173052±3.9%701online16
      Ipsos February 25, 2025 [p 6] 48162862± 3.1%1501Online20
      Relay StrategiesFebruary 25, 2025 [p 7] 4816288±3%756 (1/3)Online20
      Abacus Data February 25, 2025 [p 8] 45162955±3.1%1,000Online16
      Mainstreet Research February 25, 2025 [p 9] 42183154±2.5%1516 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Innovative ResearchFebruary 24, 2025 [p 10] 42183262±4%917Online10
      Mainstreet Research February 24, 2025 [p 11] 42193154±2.6%1414 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Leger February 23, 2025 [p 12] 47172862±3.09%1,005Online19
      Liaison StrategiesFebruary 23, 2025 [p 13] 42183253±3.45%805IVR10
      Mainstreet Research February 23, 2025 [p 14] 42193244±2.7%1335 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)10
      Mainstreet Research February 22, 2025 [p 15] 43173054±2.8%1238 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)13
      Nanos Research February 22, 2025 [p 16] 44202953±3.3%920telephone (rolling)/online15
      Mainstreet Research February 21, 2025 [p 17] 42173164±2.8%1245 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Nanos Research February 21, 2025 [p 18] 43193162±3.3%918telephone (rolling)/online12
      Ipsos February 20, 2025 [p 19] 46212544± 4.2%800Online21
      Relay StrategiesFebruary 20, 2025 [p 20] 4718268±3%975 (1/3)Online21
      Nanos Research February 20, 2025 [p 21] 45173152±3.2%931telephone (rolling)/online14
      Mainstreet Research February 20, 2025 [p 22] 40192975±2.8%1243 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Nanos Research February 19, 2025 [p 23] 44173172±3.2%936telephone (rolling)/online13
      Mainstreet Research February 19, 2025 [p 24] 38212966±2.7%1291 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)9
      Relay StrategiesFebruary 18, 2025 [p 25] 4717279±4%822 (1/3)Online20
      Nanos Research February 18, 2025 [p 26] 46163072±3.2%929telephone (rolling)/online16
      Mainstreet Research February 18, 2025 [p 27] 39212856±2.7%1281 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Leger February 17, 2025 [p 28] 48162853±3.09%1,002Online20
      Mainstreet Research February 17, 2025 [p 29] 41183056±2.7%1278 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Probe ResearchFebruary 16, 2025 [p 30] 471727812.8%1200Online20
      Innovative ResearchFebruary 16, 2025 [p 31] 451828724%963Online17
      Relay StrategiesFebruary 16, 2025 [p 32] 4720268±4%704 (1/3)Online21
      Nanos Research February 16, 2025 [p 33] 46182772±3.3%912telephone (rolling)/online19
      Mainstreet Research February 16, 2025 [p 34] 41183165±2.8%1229 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)10
      Abacus Data February 15, 2025 [p 35] 41212863±2.8%1,500Online13
      Nanos Research February 15, 2025 [p 36] 45183052±3.3%915telephone (rolling)/online15
      Mainstreet Research February 15, 2025 [p 37] 43173063±2.8%1228 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)13
      Mainstreet Research February 14, 2025 [p 38] 431929632.7%1272 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)14
      Nanos Research February 13, 2025 [p 39] 44173162±3.2%900telephone (rolling)/online13
      Mainstreet Research February 13, 2025 [p 40] 44172964±2.7%1294 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)15
      Research Co.February 13, 2025 [p 41] 45153144±3.9%702online14
      Pallas DataFebruary 12, 2025 [p 42] 44.118.927.74.74.6±2.1%2,193IVR16.4
      Nanos Research February 12, 2025 [p 43] 45172962±3.2%938telephone (rolling)/online16
      Mainstreet Research February 12, 2025 [p 44] 42173164±2.7%1314 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Relay StrategiesFebruary 11, 2025 [p 45] 4919249±4%656 (1/3)Online25
      Mainstreet Research February 11, 2025 [p 46] 41163274±2.7%1,301 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)9
      Relay StrategiesFebruary 10, 2025 [p 47] 5019229±4%656 (1/3)Online28
      Mainstreet Research February 10, 2025 [p 48] 40193064±2.7%1,303 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)10
      Nanos Research February 10, 2025 [p 49] 44173252±3.2%920telephone (rolling)/online12
      Relay StrategiesFebruary 9, 2025 [p 50] 5118238±4%656 (1/3)Online28
      Leger February 9, 2025 [p 51] 47172664 [a] ±3.09%1,004Online21
      Liaison StrategiesFebruary 9, 2025 [p 52] 41183164±2.82%1,201IVR10
      Nanos Research February 9, 2025 [p 53] 44193142±3.2%920telephone (rolling)/online13
      Mainstreet Research February 9, 2025 [p 54] 44182674±2.7%1,347 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)18
      Nanos Research February 8, 2025 [p 55] 44202853±3.3%913telephone (rolling)/online16
      Mainstreet Research February 8, 2025 [p 56] 41212575±2.8%1,187 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)16
      Mainstreet Research February 7, 2025 [p 57] 39202875±2.5%1,262 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)11
      Abacus Data February 6, 2025 [p 58] 46212454±3.1%2,000Online22
      Mainstreet Research February 6, 2025 [p 59] 39222956±2.5%1,236 (1/4)Smart IVR (rolling)10
      Nanos Research February 6, 2025 [p 60] 46163072±3.3%904telephone (rolling)/online16
      Mainstreet Research February 5, 2025 [p 61] 42192955±2.8%1,236 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)13
      Mainstreet Research February 4, 2025 [p 62] 45162955±2.9%1,162 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)16
      Mainstreet Research February 3, 2025 [p 63] 44153057±3.0%1,080 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)14
      Angus Reid February 3, 2025 [p 64] 43212655±2%1,760Online17
      Pallas DataFebruary 2, 2025 [p 65] 45212852±3.1%1,014IVR17
      Mainstreet Research February 2, 2025 [p 66] 431729561,374 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)14
      Leger February 2, 2025 [p 67] 47172384 [b] ±3.09%1,004Online24
      Mainstreet Research February 1, 2025 [p 68] 421729651,124 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)13
      Liaison StrategiesFebruary 1, 2025 [p 69] 43163155±2.74%1,274IVR12
      Mainstreet Research January 31, 2025 [p 70] 431929541,247 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)14
      Innovative ResearchJanuary 31, 2025 [p 71] 49192291857Online27
      Mainstreet Research January 30, 2025 [p 72] 38203065±2.4%1,644 (1/3)Smart IVR (rolling)8
      Ipsos January 30, 2025 [p 73] 50202433± 4.2%800Online26
      Mainstreet Research January 29, 2025 [p 74] 382229561,460Smart IVR9
      January 29, 2025Election campaign begins
      Innovative ResearchJanuary 27, 2025 [p 75] 511823621,286Online28
      Mainstreet Research January 26, 2025 [p 76] 36232966±3.2%936Smart IVR7
      Abacus Data January 26, 2025 [p 77] 47192473±3.1%1,021Online23
      Campaign ResearchJanuary 26, 2025 [p 78] 471823751,611Online24
      Liaison StrategiesJanuary 23, 2025 [p 79] 39183355±2.71%1,307IVR6
      Yorkville StrategiesJanuary 23, 2025 [p 80] 48152575±4.0%600Online23
      Leger January 19, 2025 [p 81] 46192276±3.08%1,007Online24
      Liaison StrategiesJanuary 16, 2025 [p 82] 41193254±2.83%1,197IVR9
      Campaign ResearchJanuary 15, 2025 [p 83] 471923741,789Online24
      Mainstreet Research January 15, 2025 [p 84] 40213054±3.2%943Smart IVR10
      Liaison StrategiesJanuary 9, 2025 [p 85] 40213045±2.82%1,202IVR10
      Abacus Data December 4, 2024 [p 86] 43212565±2.6%1,500Online18
      Mainstreet Research December 2, 2024 [p 87] 42222763±3.6%742Smart IVR15
      Abacus Data November 5, 2024 [p 88] 42222674±3.1%998Online16
      Pallas DataOctober 15, 2024 [p 89] 41.521.627.77.12.1±3.1%996IVR13.8
      Abacus Data October 10, 2024 [p 90] 44222474±3.1%997Online20
      Angus Reid September 18, 2024 [p 91] 40252374±3.0%858Online15
      Mainstreet Research September 17, 2024 [p 92] 41183056±3.5%764Smart IVR11
      Abacus Data August 17, 2024 [p 93] 42212684±3.057%1,028Online16
      Liaison StrategiesAugust 20, 2024 [p 94] 40212766±2.71%1,300IVR13
      Abacus Data July 21, 2024 [p 95] 44192674±3.1%1,000Online18
      Liaison StrategiesJune 27, 2024 [p 96] 39212875±2.77%1,245IVR11
      Abacus Data June 25, 2024 [p 97] 41222584±3.1%1,000Online16
      Pallas DataJune 4, 2024 [p 98] 39.422.626.58.33.2±2.9%1,136IVR12.9
      Abacus Data May 15, 2024 [p 99] 39222694±3.1%1,000Online13
      Abacus Data April 16, 2024 [p 100] 41212575±3.1%995Online16
      Liaison StrategiesApril 7, 2024 [p 101] 40183056±2.74%1,280IVR10
      Abacus Data March 21, 2024 [p 102] 41212775±2.5%1,500Online14
      Liaison StrategiesMarch 9, 2024 [p 103] 39212956±2.74%1,283IVR10
      Angus Reid March 6, 2024 [p 104] 37252764±3.0%777Online10
      Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [p 105] 41192785±3.1%1,000Online14
      Pallas DataFebruary 11, 2024 [p 106] 34.521.631.67.35.0±2.9%1,121IVR2.9
      Liaison StrategiesFebruary 3, 2024 [p 107] [p 108] 38223055±2.8%1,236IVR8
      Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [p 109] 38232756±3.1%995Online11
      Abacus Data December 12, 2023 [p 110] 39242764±3.1%1,000Online12
      Mainstreet Research December 4, 2023 [p 111] 36193465±3.3%872Smart IVR2
      December 2, 2023 Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
      Abacus Data November 28, 2023 [p 112] 42242374±2.6%1,500Online18
      Innovative ResearchOctober 30, 2023 [p 113] 41262572925Online15
      Abacus Data October 15, 2023 [p 114] 40242475±3.7%700Online16
      Pallas DataSeptember 27, 2023 [p 115] [p 116] 33.427.426.76.75.8±3.2%964IVR6
      Angus Reid September 6, 2023 [p 117] 38282275656Online10
      Abacus Data September 4, 2023 [p 118] 34262875±2.2%2,003Online6
      Pallas DataAugust 29, 2023 [p 119] 37.325.826.95.24.9±3.2%940IVR10.4
      Abacus Data August 23, 2023 [p 120] 38242576±3.1%1,040Online13
      Abacus Data July 25, 2023 [p 121] 41232475±3.1%1,000Online17
      Mainstreet Research June 30, 2023 [p 122] [p 123] 34.724.725.010.74.9±3.1%993Smart IVR9.7
      Abacus Data June 11, 2023 [p 124] [p 125] 36262764±3.1%1,000Online9
      Counsel Public AffairsJune 8, 2023 [p 126] 392327741,323Online12
      Angus Reid June 3, 2023 [p 127] 36272566653Online9
      Angus Reid March 13, 2023 [p 128] 38302066±3%861Online8
      Abacus Data March 4, 2023 [p 129] 41222854 [c] ±3.1%1,000Online13
      Mainstreet Research February 4, 2023 [p 130] 36.819.423.311.29.4±2.9%1,166Smart IVR13.5
      February 4, 2023 Marit Stiles is declared leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party
      Angus Reid December 3, 2022 [p 131] 37272565±3%1,058Online10
      Mainstreet Research December 2, 2022 [p 132] 37.325.924.46.65.8±2.9%1,162Smart IVR11.4
      Abacus Data November 5, 2022 [p 133] 38262755 [d] ±3.1%1,000Online11
      August 3, 2022 Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party; John Fraser becomes interim leader
      June 28, 2022 Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party; Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader
      EKOS June 20, 2022 [p 134] [p 135] 37.523.319.29.810.2 [e] ±2.7%1,357Online/Telephone14.2
      2022 election June 2, 202240.8223.7423.855.965.6216.97

      Footnotes

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