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Riding of Bay of Quinte | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 38.45% ( 7.46) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the provincial riding of Bay of Quinte on September 19, 2024, to elect a new member of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario following the resignation of Progressive Conservative MPP and cabinet minister Todd Smith for a new job in the private sector. [1] It resulted in the victory of PC candidate Tyler Allsopp, though by a reduced margin compared to his predecessor.
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | PC | OLP | ONDP | Green | Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size | Polling Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By-election 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 38.69 | 33.32 | 23.08 | 3.17 | 1.74 | ||||
| Liaison Strategies | September 9, 2024 | [2] | 35 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 6 | ±4.21 pp | 541 | IVR |
| Election 2022 | June 2, 2022 | 49.30 | 18.45 | 20.92 | 6.27 | 5.06 |
| Ontario provincial by-election, September 19, 2024 Resignation of Todd Smith | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Progressive Conservative | Tyler Allsopp | 14,430 | 38.69 | -10.61 | ||||
| Liberal | Sean Kelly | 12,428 | 33.32 | +14.87 | ||||
| New Democratic | Amanda Robertson | 8,607 | 23.08 | +2.16 | ||||
| Green | Lori Borthwick | 1,186 | 3.18 | -3.09 | ||||
| New Blue | Margaret Schuler | 369 | 0.99 | -1.61 | ||||
| Independent | John Turmel | 149 | 0.40 | |||||
| Libertarian | Mark Snow | 129 | 0.35 | |||||
| Total valid votes/Expense limit | ||||||||
| Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots | ||||||||
| Turnout | 38.45 | |||||||
| Eligible voters | 97,016 | |||||||
| 2022 Ontario general election : Bay of Quinte | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Progressive Conservative | Todd Smith | 21,381 | 49.30 | +1.28 | $76,706 | |||
| New Democratic | Alison Kelly | 9,073 | 20.92 | −10.92 | $55,474 | |||
| Liberal | Emilie Leneveu | 8,003 | 18.45 | +3.56 | $31,230 | |||
| Green | Erica Charlton | 2,719 | 6.27 | +2.84 | $0 | |||
| New Blue | Rob Collins | 1,128 | 2.60 | $5,066 | ||||
| Ontario Party | Noah Wales | 1,062 | 2.45 | $3,779 | ||||
| Total valid votes/Expense limit | 43,366 | 99.59 | $133,230 | |||||
| Total rejected, unmarked, and declined ballots | 179 | 0.41 | -0.68 | |||||
| Turnout | 43,545 | 45.91 | -10.55 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 94,852 | |||||||
| Progressive Conservative hold | Swing | +6.10 | ||||||
Source(s)
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