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The 44th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 4, 2026. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election, [1] unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario on the advice of the premier of Ontario, a motion of no confidence or the failure of the Assembly to grant supply.
Under the Ontario Elections Act, general elections shall be held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election. As the previous election was held on June 2, 2022, the election would be June 4, 2026. However, there has been speculation that Premier Doug Ford will call a snap election to take advantage of a lead in the polls and fundraising, as well as a desire to hold the election before the next federal election, which the Conservative party is currently leading in polls and speculated to win. [2] [3] Speculation was further fuelled by Ford refusing to commit to the June 2026 date when asked by reporters at multiple press conferences in May 2024. [4] [5] [6]
Party | Party leader | Seats | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | Current | |||
Progressive Conservative | Doug Ford | 83 | 79 | |
New Democratic | Marit Stiles | 31 | 28 | |
Liberal | Bonnie Crombie | 8 | 9 | |
Green | Mike Schreiner | 1 | 2 | |
Independent | 1 | 6 | ||
Total | 124 | 124 |
The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 [33] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.
The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, [34] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. [35] [36] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. [37]
With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario has been allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with past tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the next provincial election. [38]
See also: Candidates of the 44th Ontario general election
Party | English | French (translation) |
---|---|---|
█ PC | "Let's get it done" | "Faisons-le" |
█ New Democratic | "It's Marit" [47] | "C'est Marit" |
█ Liberal | "More For You" [48] | "Plus Pour Vous" |
█ Green | ||
█ New Blue | ||
█ Ontario Party |
Polling firm | Last date of polling | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling type | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abacus Data | December 4, 2024 | [p 1] | 43 | 21 | 25 | 6 | 5 | ±2.6% | 1,500 | Online | 18 |
Mainstreet Research | December 2, 2024 | [p 2] | 42 | 22 | 27 | 6 | 3 | ±3.6% | 742 | Smart IVR | 15 |
Abacus Data | November 5, 2024 | [p 3] | 42 | 22 | 26 | 7 | 4 | ±3.1% | 998 | Online | 16 |
Pallas Data | October 15, 2024 | [p 4] | 41.5 | 21.6 | 27.7 | 7.1 | 2.1 | ±3.1% | 996 | IVR | 13.8 |
Abacus Data | October 10, 2024 | [p 5] | 44 | 22 | 24 | 7 | 4 | ±3.1% | 997 | Online | 20 |
Angus Reid | September 18, 2024 | [p 6] | 40 | 25 | 23 | 7 | 4 | ±3.0% | 858 | Online | 15 |
Mainstreet Research | September 17, 2024 | [p 7] | 41 | 18 | 30 | 5 | 6 | ±3.5% | 764 | Smart IVR | 11 |
Abacus Data | August 17, 2024 | [p 8] | 42 | 21 | 26 | 8 | 4 | ±3.057% | 1,028 | Online | 16 |
Liaison Strategies | August 20, 2024 | [p 9] | 40 | 21 | 27 | 6 | 6 | ±2.71% | 1,300 | IVR | 13 |
Abacus Data | July 21, 2024 | [p 10] | 44 | 19 | 26 | 7 | 4 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 18 |
Liaison Strategies | June 27, 2024 | [p 11] | 39 | 21 | 28 | 7 | 5 | ±2.77% | 1,245 | IVR | 11 |
Abacus Data | June 25, 2024 | [p 12] | 41 | 22 | 25 | 8 | 4 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 16 |
Pallas Data | June 4, 2024 | [p 13] | 39.4 | 22.6 | 26.5 | 8.3 | 3.2 | ±2.9% | 1,136 | IVR | 12.9 |
Abacus Data | May 15, 2024 | [p 14] | 39 | 22 | 26 | 9 | 4 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 13 |
Abacus Data | April 16, 2024 | [p 15] | 41 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 5 | ±3.1% | 995 | Online | 16 |
Liaison Strategies | April 7, 2024 | [p 16] | 40 | 18 | 30 | 5 | 6 | ±2.74% | 1,280 | IVR | 10 |
Abacus Data | March 21, 2024 | [p 17] | 41 | 21 | 27 | 7 | 5 | ±2.5% | 1,500 | Online | 14 |
Liaison Strategies | March 9, 2024 | [p 18] | 39 | 21 | 29 | 5 | 6 | ±2.74% | 1,283 | IVR | 10 |
Angus Reid | March 6, 2024 | [p 19] | 37 | 25 | 27 | 6 | 4 | ±3.0% | 777 | Online | 10 |
Abacus Data | February 21, 2024 | [p 20] | 41 | 19 | 27 | 8 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 14 |
Pallas Data | February 11, 2024 | [p 21] | 34.5 | 21.6 | 31.6 | 7.3 | 5.0 | ±2.9% | 1,121 | IVR | 2.9 |
Liaison Strategies | February 3, 2024 | [p 22] [p 23] | 38 | 22 | 30 | 5 | 5 | ±2.8% | 1,236 | IVR | 8 |
Abacus Data | January 23, 2024 | [p 24] | 38 | 23 | 27 | 5 | 6 | ±3.1% | 995 | Online | 11 |
Abacus Data | December 12, 2023 | [p 25] | 39 | 24 | 27 | 6 | 4 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 12 |
Mainstreet Research | December 4, 2023 | [p 26] | 36 | 19 | 34 | 6 | 5 | ±3.3% | 872 | Smart IVR | 2 |
Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | |||||||||||
Abacus Data | November 28, 2023 | [p 27] | 42 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 4 | ±2.6% | 1,500 | Online | 18 |
Innovative Research | October 30, 2023 | [p 28] | 41 | 26 | 25 | 7 | 2 | — | 925 | Online | 15 |
Abacus Data | October 15, 2023 | [p 29] | 40 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 5 | ±3.7% | 700 | Online | 16 |
Pallas Data | September 27, 2023 | [p 30] [p 31] | 33.4 | 27.4 | 26.7 | 6.7 | 5.8 | ±3.2% | 964 | IVR | 6 |
Angus Reid | September 6, 2023 | [p 32] | 38 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 5 | — | 656 | Online | 10 |
Abacus Data | September 4, 2023 | [p 33] | 34 | 26 | 28 | 7 | 5 | ±2.2% | 2,003 | Online | 6 |
Pallas Data | August 29, 2023 | [p 34] | 37.3 | 25.8 | 26.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | ±3.2% | 940 | IVR | 10.4 |
Abacus Data | August 23, 2023 | [p 35] | 38 | 24 | 25 | 7 | 6 | ±3.1% | 1,040 | Online | 13 |
Abacus Data | July 25, 2023 | [p 36] | 41 | 23 | 24 | 7 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 17 |
Mainstreet Research | June 30, 2023 | [p 37] [p 38] | 34.7 | 24.7 | 25.0 | 10.7 | 4.9 | ±3.1% | 993 | Smart IVR | 9.7 |
Abacus Data | June 11, 2023 | [p 39] [p 40] | 36 | 26 | 27 | 6 | 4 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 9 |
Counsel Public Affairs | June 8, 2023 | [p 41] | 39 | 23 | 27 | 7 | 4 | — | 1,323 | Online | 12 |
Angus Reid | June 3, 2023 | [p 42] | 36 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 6 | — | 653 | Online | 9 |
Angus Reid | March 13, 2023 | [p 43] | 38 | 30 | 20 | 6 | 6 | ±3% | 861 | Online | 8 |
Abacus Data | March 4, 2023 | [p 44] | 41 | 22 | 28 | 5 | 4 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | February 4, 2023 | [p 45] | 36.8 | 19.4 | 23.3 | 11.2 | 9.4 | ±2.9% | 1,166 | Smart IVR | 13.5 |
Marit Stiles is declared leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party | |||||||||||
Angus Reid | December 3, 2022 | [p 46] | 37 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 5 | ±3% | 1,058 | Online | 10 |
Mainstreet Research | December 2, 2022 | [p 47] | 37.3 | 25.9 | 24.4 | 6.6 | 5.8 | ±2.9% | 1,162 | Smart IVR | 11.4 |
Abacus Data | November 5, 2022 | [p 48] | 38 | 26 | 27 | 5 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 11 |
Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party; John Fraser becomes interim leader | |||||||||||
Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party; Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader | |||||||||||
EKOS | June 20, 2022 | [p 49] [p 50] | 37.5 | 23.3 | 19.2 | 9.8 | 10.2 | ±2.7% | 1,357 | Online/Telephone | 14.2 |
2022 election | June 2, 2022 | — | 40.82 | 23.74 | 23.85 | 5.96 | 5.62 | — | — | — | 16.97 |
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