44th Ontario general election

Last updated

44th Ontario general election
Flag of Ontario.svg
  2022 On or before June 4, 2026 (2026-06-04)45th 

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Doug Ford at Building Faster Fund announcement 2024-03-22 02 (cropped).jpg Marit Stiles May 6, 2024.jpg
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election83 seats, 40.82%31 seats, 23.74%
Current seats7928

  Bonnie Crombie with Lou Rinaldi at 2017 AMO Conference (36541302906) (cropped).jpg Gpo-mike-schreiner-headshot-2021-bricks (cropped).jpg
Leader Bonnie Crombie Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since December 2, 2023 May 16, 2009
Leader's seatNone Guelph
Last election8 seats, 23.85%1 seat, 5.96%
Current seats92

Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 44th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 4, 2026. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election, [1] unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario on the advice of the premier of Ontario, a motion of no confidence or the failure of the Assembly to grant supply.

Contents

Date

Under the Ontario Elections Act, general elections shall be held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election. As the previous election was held on June 2, 2022, the election would be June 4, 2026. However, there has been speculation that Premier Doug Ford will call a snap election to take advantage of a lead in the polls and fundraising, as well as a desire to hold the election before the next federal election, which the Conservative party is currently leading in polls and speculated to win. [2] [3] Speculation was further fuelled by Ford refusing to commit to the June 2026 date when asked by reporters at multiple press conferences in May 2024. [4] [5] [6]

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
PartyParty leaderSeats
2022 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 8379
New Democratic Marit Stiles 3128
Liberal Bonnie Crombie 89
Green Mike Schreiner 12
  Independent 16
Total124124

Timeline

2022

2023

Changes in seats held since June 2, 2022
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Hamilton Centre August 15, 2022 Andrea Horwath [15] [16]   New Democratic Resignation from legislature. [a 1] March 16, 2023 Sarah Jama [17]   New Democratic
Don Valley North March 10, 2023 Vincent Ke [18]   PC Resignation from caucus. [a 2]   Independent
Kanata—Carleton March 24, 2023 Merrilee Fullerton [19]   PC Resignation from legislature. July 27, 2023 Karen McCrimmon [20]   Liberal
Algoma—Manitoulin March 31, 2023 Michael Mantha [21]   New Democratic Expelled from caucus. [a 3]   Independent
Scarborough—Guildwood May 10, 2023 Mitzie Hunter [22]   Liberal Resignation from legislature. [a 4] July 27, 2023 Andrea Hazell [23]   Liberal
Kitchener Centre July 13, 2023 Laura Mae Lindo [24] [25]   New Democratic Resignation from legislature. [a 5] November 30, 2023 Aislinn Clancy [26]   Green
Mississauga East—Cooksville September 20, 2023 Kaleed Rasheed [27]   PC Resignation from caucus. [a 6]   Independent
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex September 22, 2023 Monte McNaughton [28]   PC Resignation from legislature [a 7] May 2, 2024 Steve Pinsonneault   PC
Hamilton Centre October 23, 2023 Sarah Jama [29]   New Democratic Expelled from caucus. [a 8]   Independent
Milton January 25, 2024 Parm Gill [30]   PC Resignation from legislature. [a 9] May 2, 2024 Zee Hamid   PC
Carleton June 28, 2024 Goldie Ghamari [31]   PC Expelled from caucus. [a 10]   Independent
Bay of Quinte August 16, 2024 Todd Smith [32]   PC Resignation from legislature. [a 7] September 19, 2024 Tyler Allsopp   PC
  1. to run for Mayor of Hamilton.
  2. due to allegations that he was involved in the 2019 Canadian Parliament infiltration plot.
  3. over workplace misconduct allegations.
  4. to run for Mayor of Toronto.
  5. to accept position at the University of Waterloo
  6. after contradictory claims were made regarding a Las Vegas business trip.
  7. 1 2 to accept position in the private sector
  8. over comments made regarding the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
  9. to run in the next federal election
  10. after meeting with far-right activist Tommy Robinson

Ridings

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 [33] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, [34] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. [35] [36] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. [37]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario has been allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with past tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the next provincial election. [38]

Candidates

See also: Candidates of the 44th Ontario general election

Incumbents not standing for reelection

Electoral districtIncumbent at dissolution
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound   Rick Byers [39]
Burlington   Natalie Pierre [40]
Eglinton—Lawrence   Robin Martin
Hamilton Mountain   Monique Taylor [41]
Mississauga East—Cooksville   Kaleed Rasheed [42]
Nepean   Lisa MacLeod [43]
Ottawa Centre   Joel Harden [41]
Parkdale—High Park   Bhutila Karpoche [41]
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke   John Yakabuski [44]
Sault Ste. Marie   Ross Romano [45]
Wellington—Halton Hills   Ted Arnott [46]

Party slogans

PartyEnglishFrench (translation)
  PC "Let's get it done""Faisons-le"
  New Democratic "It's Marit" [47] "C'est Marit"
  Liberal "More For You" [48] "Plus Pour Vous"
  Green
  New Blue
  Ontario Party

Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions. Opinion polling for the 44th Ontario general election.svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Polling firmLast date
of polling
Source PC NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin of errorSample sizePolling typeLead
Abacus Data December 4, 2024 [p 1] 43212565±2.6%1,500Online18
Mainstreet Research December 2, 2024 [p 2] 42222763±3.6%742Smart IVR15
Abacus Data November 5, 2024 [p 3] 42222674±3.1%998Online16
Pallas DataOctober 15, 2024 [p 4] 41.521.627.77.12.1±3.1%996IVR13.8
Abacus Data October 10, 2024 [p 5] 44222474±3.1%997Online20
Angus Reid September 18, 2024 [p 6] 40252374±3.0%858Online15
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2024 [p 7] 41183056±3.5%764Smart IVR11
Abacus Data August 17, 2024 [p 8] 42212684±3.057%1,028Online16
Liaison StrategiesAugust 20, 2024 [p 9] 40212766±2.71%1,300IVR13
Abacus Data July 21, 2024 [p 10] 44192674±3.1%1,000Online18
Liaison StrategiesJune 27, 2024 [p 11] 39212875±2.77%1,245IVR11
Abacus Data June 25, 2024 [p 12] 41222584±3.1%1,000Online16
Pallas DataJune 4, 2024 [p 13] 39.422.626.58.33.2±2.9%1,136IVR12.9
Abacus Data May 15, 2024 [p 14] 39222694±3.1%1,000Online13
Abacus Data April 16, 2024 [p 15] 41212575±3.1%995Online16
Liaison StrategiesApril 7, 2024 [p 16] 40183056±2.74%1,280IVR10
Abacus Data March 21, 2024 [p 17] 41212775±2.5%1,500Online14
Liaison StrategiesMarch 9, 2024 [p 18] 39212956±2.74%1,283IVR10
Angus Reid March 6, 2024 [p 19] 37252764±3.0%777Online10
Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [p 20] 41192785±3.1%1,000Online14
Pallas DataFebruary 11, 2024 [p 21] 34.521.631.67.35.0±2.9%1,121IVR2.9
Liaison StrategiesFebruary 3, 2024 [p 22] [p 23] 38223055±2.8%1,236IVR8
Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [p 24] 38232756±3.1%995Online11
Abacus Data December 12, 2023 [p 25] 39242764±3.1%1,000Online12
Mainstreet Research December 4, 2023 [p 26] 36193465±3.3%872Smart IVR2
December 2, 2023 Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Abacus Data November 28, 2023 [p 27] 42242374±2.6%1,500Online18
Innovative ResearchOctober 30, 2023 [p 28] 41262572925Online15
Abacus Data October 15, 2023 [p 29] 40242475±3.7%700Online16
Pallas DataSeptember 27, 2023 [p 30] [p 31] 33.427.426.76.75.8±3.2%964IVR6
Angus Reid September 6, 2023 [p 32] 38282275656Online10
Abacus Data September 4, 2023 [p 33] 34262875±2.2%2,003Online6
Pallas DataAugust 29, 2023 [p 34] 37.325.826.95.24.9±3.2%940IVR10.4
Abacus Data August 23, 2023 [p 35] 38242576±3.1%1,040Online13
Abacus Data July 25, 2023 [p 36] 41232475±3.1%1,000Online17
Mainstreet Research June 30, 2023 [p 37] [p 38] 34.724.725.010.74.9±3.1%993Smart IVR9.7
Abacus Data June 11, 2023 [p 39] [p 40] 36262764±3.1%1,000Online9
Counsel Public AffairsJune 8, 2023 [p 41] 392327741,323Online12
Angus Reid June 3, 2023 [p 42] 36272566653Online9
Angus Reid March 13, 2023 [p 43] 38302066±3%861Online8
Abacus Data March 4, 2023 [p 44] 41222854±3.1%1,000Online13
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2023 [p 45] 36.819.423.311.29.4±2.9%1,166Smart IVR13.5
February 4, 2023 Marit Stiles is declared leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party
Angus Reid December 3, 2022 [p 46] 37272565±3%1,058Online10
Mainstreet Research December 2, 2022 [p 47] 37.325.924.46.65.8±2.9%1,162Smart IVR11.4
Abacus Data November 5, 2022 [p 48] 38262755±3.1%1,000Online11
August 3, 2022 Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party; John Fraser becomes interim leader
June 28, 2022 Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party; Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader
EKOS June 20, 2022 [p 49] [p 50] 37.523.319.29.810.2±2.7%1,357Online/Telephone14.2
2022 election June 2, 202240.8223.7423.855.965.6216.97

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References

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