44th Ontario general election

Last updated

44th Ontario general election
Flag of Ontario.svg
←  2022 On or before June 4, 2026 (2026-06-04)45th →
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Installation of 30th Lieutenant Governor of Ontario ONT 8196 (53335409257) (cropped).jpg Marit Stiles with Olivia Chow (cropped).jpg
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election83 seats, 40.82%31 seats, 23.74%
Current seats7828
  Bonnie Crombie with Lou Rinaldi at 2017 AMO Conference (36541302906) (cropped).jpg Gpo-mike-schreiner-headshot-2021-bricks (cropped).jpg
Leader Bonnie Crombie Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since December 2, 2023 May 16, 2009
Leader's seatNone Guelph
Last election8 seats, 23.85%1 seat, 5.96%
Current seats92
Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 44th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 4, 2026. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election, [1] unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to advice from the Premier of Ontario, a motion of no confidence or the failure of the Assembly to grant supply. Such a dissolution is unlikely as the current government has a majority.

Contents

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
PartyParty leaderSeats
2022 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 8378
New Democratic Marit Stiles 3128
Liberal Bonnie Crombie 89
Green Mike Schreiner 12
  Independent 15
Vacant02
Total124124

Timeline

2022

2023

2024

Changes in seats held since June 2, 2022
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Hamilton Centre August 15, 2022 Andrea Horwath [10] [11] █  New Democratic Resignation from legislature. [a 1] March 16, 2023 Sarah Jama [12] █  New Democratic
Don Valley North March 10, 2023 Vincent Ke [13] █  PC Resignation from PC caucus. [a 2] █  Independent
Kanata—Carleton March 24, 2023 Merrilee Fullerton [14] █  PC Resignation from legislature. [a 3] July 27, 2023 Karen McCrimmon [15] █  Liberal
Algoma—Manitoulin March 31, 2023 Michael Mantha [16] █  New Democratic Expelled from NDP caucus. [a 4] █  Independent
Scarborough—Guildwood May 10, 2023 Mitzie Hunter [17] █  Liberal Resignation from legislature. [a 5] July 27, 2023 Andrea Hazell [18] █  Liberal
Kitchener Centre July 13, 2023 Laura Mae Lindo [19] [20] █  New Democratic Resignation from legislature. [a 6] November 30, 2023 Aislinn Clancy [21] █  Green
Mississauga East—Cooksville September 20, 2023 Kaleed Rasheed [22] █  PC Resignation from PC caucus. [a 7] █  Independent
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex September 22, 2023 Monte McNaughton [23] █  PC Resignation from legislature [a 3] May 2, 2024Vacant
Hamilton Centre October 23, 2023 Sarah Jama [24] █  New Democratic Expelled from NDP caucus. [a 8] █  Independent
Milton January 25, 2024 Parm Gill [25] █  PC Resignation from legislature. [a 9] May 2, 2024Vacant
  1. ↑ to run for Mayor of Hamilton.
  2. ↑ from PC Caucus due to allegations that he was involved in the 2019 Canadian Parliament infiltration plot.
  3. 1 2 as minister and MPP
  4. ↑ from NDP Caucus over workplace misconduct allegations.
  5. ↑ to run for Mayor of Toronto.
  6. ↑ to accept position at the University of Waterloo
  7. ↑ after contradictory claims were made regarding a Las Vegas business trip.
  8. ↑ from NDP Caucus over comments made regarding the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
  9. ↑ to run in the next federal election

Ridings

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 [26] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, [27] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. [28] [29] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. [30]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario has been allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons, which could potentially increase the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.

Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions. Opinion polling for the 44th Ontario general election.svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Polling firmLast date
of polling		Source PC NDP Liberal Green New Blue OtherMargin of errorSample sizePolling typeLead
Liaison StrategiesApril 7, 2024 [p 1] 4018305—6±2.74%1,280IVR10
Abacus Data March 21, 2024 [p 2] 4121277—5±2.5%1,500Online14
Liaison StrategiesMarch 9, 2024 [p 3] 3921295—6±2.74%1,283IVR10
Angus Reid March 6, 2024 [p 4] 3725276—4±3.0%777Online10
Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [p 5] 4119278—5±3.1%1,000Online14
Pallas DataFebruary 11, 2024 [p 6] 34.521.631.67.3—5.0±2.9%1,121IVR2.9
Liaison StrategiesFebruary 3, 2024 [p 7] [p 8] 3822305—5±2.8%1,236IVR8
Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [p 9] 3823275—6±3.1%995Online11
Abacus Data December 12, 2023 [p 10] 3924276—4±3.1%1,000Online12
Mainstreet Research December 4, 2023 [p 11] 3619346—5±3.3%872Smart IVR2
December 2, 2023 Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Abacus Data November 28, 2023 [p 12] 4224237—4±2.6%1,500Online18
Innovative ResearchOctober 30, 2023 [p 13] 4126257—2—925Online15
Abacus Data October 15, 2023 [p 14] 4024247—5±3.7%700Online16
Pallas DataSeptember 27, 2023 [p 15] [p 16] 33.427.426.76.7—5.8±3.2%964IVR6
Angus Reid September 6, 2023 [p 17] 3828227—5—656Online10
Abacus Data September 4, 2023 [p 18] 3426287—5±2.2%2,003Online6
Pallas DataAugust 29, 2023 [p 19] 37.325.826.95.2—4.9±3.2%940IVR10.4
Abacus Data August 23, 2023 [p 20] 3824257—6±3.1%1,040Online13
Abacus Data July 25, 2023 [p 21] 4123247—5±3.1%1,000Online17
Mainstreet Research June 30, 2023 [p 22] [p 23] 34.724.725.010.7—4.9±3.1%993Smart IVR9.7
Abacus Data June 11, 2023 [p 24] [p 25] 3626276—4±3.1%1,000Online9
Counsel Public AffairsJune 8, 2023 [p 26] 3923277—4—1,323Online12
Angus Reid June 3, 2023 [p 27] 3627256—6—653Online9
Angus Reid March 13, 2023 [p 28] 3830206—6±3%861Online8
Abacus Data March 4, 2023 [p 29] 412228522±3.1%1,000Online13
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2023 [p 30] 36.819.423.311.2—9.4±2.9%1,166Smart IVR13.5
February 4, 2023 Marit Stiles is declared leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party
Angus Reid December 3, 2022 [p 31] 3727256—5±3%1,058Online10
Mainstreet Research December 2, 2022 [p 32] 37.325.924.46.6—5.8±2.9%1,162Smart IVR11.4
Abacus Data November 5, 2022 [p 33] 382627532±3.1%1,000Online11
August 3, 2022 Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party; John Fraser becomes interim leader
June 28, 2022 Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party; Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader
EKOS June 20, 2022 [p 34] [p 35] 37.523.319.29.85.25±2.7%1,357Online/Telephone14.2
2022 election June 2, 2022—40.8223.7423.855.962.722.90———16.97

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References

  1. ↑ Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
  2. ↑ Benzie, Robert (June 2, 2022). "Doug Ford trounces the competition as Steven Del Duca and Andrea Horwath resign as party leaders". Toronto Star . Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  3. ↑ "Ontario NDP names Peter Tabuns interim leader". CBC News . The Canadian Press. June 28, 2022. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
  4. ↑ Jackson, Hannah (July 25, 2022). "Ontario Liberal caucus selects John Fraser to serve as party's interim leader". Global News . Retrieved August 10, 2022.
  5. ↑ "Ontario Liberals Announce New Critic Roles". www.ontarioliberal.ca. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
  6. ↑ "It's a done deal: Marit Stiles will win the NDP leadership uncontested | TVO.org". www.tvo.org. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  7. ↑ "CityNews". toronto.citynews.ca.
  8. ↑ Griffin, Tyler (February 4, 2023). "Ontario NDP officially confirms Marit Stiles as leader by majority vote". CBC News . The Canadian Press . Retrieved February 8, 2023.
  9. ↑ "Bonnie Crombie takes aim at Doug Ford after winning Ontario Liberal leadership". The Globe and Mail. December 2, 2023. Retrieved December 3, 2023.
  10. ↑ Moro, Teviah (July 26, 2022). "'I love this city': Former Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath enters Hamilton mayoral race". Hamilton Spectator . Retrieved July 26, 2022.
  11. ↑ Werner, Kevin (August 15, 2022). "Hamilton mayoral candidate Andrea Horwath officially resigns her Hamilton Centre seat Aug. 15". Hamilton Spectator . Retrieved August 18, 2022.
  12. ↑ Hristova, Bobby (March 16, 2023). "NDP's Sarah Jama elected as next MPP for Hamilton Centre". CBC News . Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  13. ↑ Stone, Laura (March 10, 2023). "Progressive Conservative MPP Vincent Ke leaves caucus after allegations of election interference". The Globe and Mail . Retrieved March 13, 2023.
  14. ↑ "Ontario PC cabinet minister Merrilee Fullerton resigns". CP24 . The Canadian Press. March 24, 2023. Retrieved March 24, 2023.
  15. ↑ Holder, Gord (July 27, 2023). "Karen McCrimmon wins Kanata-Carleton byelection for Ontario Liberals". Ottawa Citizen . Postmedia . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  16. ↑ The Canadian Press (April 1, 2023). "Michael Mantha removed from Ontario NDP caucus amid workplace investigation". CBC News . Archived from the original on April 1, 2023. Retrieved April 1, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Toronto mayoral candidate Mitzie Hunter reveals date she'll resign as MPP". thestar.com. May 2, 2023.
  18. ↑ Nakhavoly, Melissa (July 27, 2023). "Liberal victory in Scarborough-Guildwood byelection". CityNews . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  19. ↑ Maher, Brandon (July 11, 2023). "Lindo steps down as MPP, citing cost of childcare". CityNews 570 . Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  20. ↑ Bueckert, Kate (January 18, 2023). "Kitchener Centre MPP Laura Mae Lindo stepping down to take Ontario university job". CBC News . Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  21. ↑ Bholla, Cheyenne (November 30, 2023). "Aislinn Clancy wins Kitchener Centre". Waterloo Region Record . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  22. ↑ "Ontario MPP Kaleed Rasheed resigns from Ford's cabinet following Greenbelt probe". CBC. September 21, 2023. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
  23. ↑ Richmond, Randy (September 22, 2023). "'Rising star' Monte McNaughton, region's top-ranking MPP, quits amid tumult". London Free Press . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  24. ↑ DeClerq, Katherine (October 23, 2023). "Ontario MPP Sarah Jama censured and removed from NDP caucus over Israel-Gaza comments". CP24 . Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  25. ↑ Crawley, Mike (January 25, 2024). "Ontario PCs' Parm Gill resigns from cabinet to run for Poilievre's Conservatives". CBC News . Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  26. ↑ Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 , S.O. 2015, c. 31
  27. ↑ as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016 , S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
  28. ↑ "Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission". August 8, 2017. Archived from the original on March 19, 2018. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  29. ↑ Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on December 6, 2017. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
  30. ↑ Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017 , S.O. 2017, c. 18

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ Valentin, David (April 11, 2024). "Ford PCs Lead Liberals by 10, 49% of Ontarians Would Abolish Carbon Tax". Liaison Strategies. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  2. ↑ "Ford vs. Poilievre: What Ontarians think plus the latest Ontario politics tracker". Abacus Data . March 25, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  3. ↑ Valentin, David (March 11, 2024). "Ontario PCs Lead Liberals by 10, Ontarians believe Province is Doing Best on Housing". Liaison Strategies. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Ontario Spotlight: Budget deficit adds to Ford government's challenges, as criticism on top issues mounts from all sides". Angus Reid Institute. April 2, 2024. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Doug Ford's Tories are surging at the expense of Marit Stiles' New Democrats, poll suggests". Toronto Star . February 26, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Ontario - Provincial Voting Intentions And Assessment of the Ford Government" (PDF). www.thetrillium.ca. Pallas Data. Retrieved February 19, 2024.
  7. ↑ Valentin, David (February 6, 2024). "Ontario PCs Lead Liberals by 8, No Confidence in the Healthcare system". Liaison Strategies. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  8. ↑ Wilson, Codi (February 6, 2024). "Ford's PC Party has eight-point lead over Liberals but Crombie gaining ground in some areas: poll". CTV News Toronto . Bell Media . Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  9. ↑ "Doug Ford's Tories are ahead, but ominous signs are on the horizon, poll suggests". Toronto Star . January 28, 2024. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Bonnie Crombie is exposing vulnerabilities in Doug Ford's Tories, poll suggests". Toronto Star . December 18, 2023. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  11. ↑ Martin, Robert (December 5, 2023). "Mainstreet Ontario, December 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  12. ↑ Coletto, David (December 1, 2023). "As the Ontario Liberals prepare to announce new leader, Ford PCs open up an 18-point lead over the NDP". Abacus Data . Retrieved December 2, 2023.
  13. ↑ "Canada This Month: Greenbelt Controversy" (PDF). Innovative Research Group. November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  14. ↑ Coletto, David (October 18, 2023). "Ontario PCs rebound despite RCMP investigation starting". Abacus Data . Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  15. ↑ "Provincial Voting Intentions and Ontarians' Opinions on Ontario Liberal Leadership Candidates" (PDF). Village Media. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  16. ↑ Smith Cross, Jessica (October 2, 2023). "Support for Doug Ford's PCs nears all-time low, poll finds". The Trillium. Village Media . Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Greenbelt Grief: Ford's personal approval drops to five-year low, but voters still prefer PCPO to opposition options". www.angusreid.org. September 8, 2023.
  18. ↑ Coletto, David (September 6, 2023). "Ford's PCs down 7-points since the end of July as the Greenbelt scandal bites". Abacus Data. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Provincial Voting Intentions and Ontarians' Attitudes About Greenbelt Development" (PDF). Village Media. Pallas Data. August 30, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  20. ↑ Coletto, David (August 25, 2023). "Has the Greenbelt scandal hurt the Ford PCs in Ontario?". Abacus Data. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  21. ↑ Benzie, Robert (July 26, 2023). "A bad sign for Doug Ford's future? Majority of Ontarians think his decisions benefit 'friends and supporters,' poll finds". Toronto Star. Retrieved July 26, 2023.
  22. ↑ Fric, Curtis (July 6, 2023). "Ontario Provincial, July 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
  23. ↑ "Latest Ontario Polling From Mainstreet!". Twitter. Mainstreet Research. July 6, 2023. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
  24. ↑ Benzie, Robert (June 12, 2023). "A front-runner has emerged in the Liberal leadership race, poll finds". Toronto Star. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  25. ↑ Coletto, David (June 13, 2023). "Ford PCs ahead by 9 as Ontario Liberal leadership race kicks off: Abacus Data Poll". Abacus Data. Retrieved June 18, 2023.
  26. ↑ Nanji, Sabrina (July 20, 2023). "Exclusive: Crombie is tops, Ford is Teflon". Queen's Park Observer. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  27. ↑ "Provincial Performance: B.C. & Ontario governments face immense, growing criticism over handling of key issues" (PDF). www.angusreid.org.
  28. ↑ "Ontario Spotlight: NDP under Marit Stiles opens up gap over Liberals, but new leader still relatively unknown" (PDF). www.angusreid.org.
  29. ↑ "Ontario Politics: PCs lead by 13 as the public reacts to the story about the Ford family stag-and-doe and wedding". abacusdata.ca. Retrieved March 7, 2023.
  30. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  31. ↑ "Angus Reid Ontario Spotlight: Ford government frozen out over key issues of inflation, health care, education". angusreid.org. December 15, 2022. Retrieved December 16, 2022.
  32. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  33. ↑ "Abacus Data | Ford vs. Education Workers: How are Ontarians reacting?". abacusdata.ca. November 6, 2022. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
  34. ↑ "The 2022 Ontario Election in Review". Ekos Politics. June 27, 2022.
  35. ↑ "Ekos Data Tables" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 7, 2022.
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