2014 Ontario general election

Last updated

2014 Ontario general election
Flag of Ontario.svg
←  2011 June 12, 2014 (2014-06-12) 2018  →
107 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
54 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout51.3% (Increase2.svg3.1pp) [1]
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Hon Kathleen Wynne MPP Premier of Ontario (cropped2).jpg Tim Hudak 2014 (cropped).jpg Andrea Horwath (cropped).jpg
Leader Kathleen Wynne Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since January 26, 2013 June 27, 2009 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Don Valley West Niagara West—Glanbrook Hamilton Centre
Last election53 seats, 37.65%37 seats, 35.45%17 seats, 22.74%
Seats before483721
Seats won582821
Seat changeIncrease2.svg10Decrease2.svg9Steady2.svg
Popular vote1,863,9741,505,4361,144,822
Percentage38.67%31.23%23.75%
SwingIncrease2.svg1.02pp Decrease2.svg4.22pp Increase2.svg1.01pp
Ontario Provincial Election 2014 Riding Results Map.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

Premier after election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

The 2014 Ontario general election was held on June 12, 2014, to elect the members of the 41st Parliament of Ontario. The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the legislature, allowing its leader, Kathleen Wynne, to continue as premier, moving from a minority to majority government. This was the Liberals' fourth consecutive win since 2003 and an improvement from their performance in the 2011 election. [2] The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak were returned to the official opposition; following the election loss, Hudak announced his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader. [3] The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath remained in third place, albeit with an improved share of the popular vote.

Contents

The election was called on May 2, 2014, by Lieutenant Governor David Onley, [4] upon the recommendation of Wynne following the announcement that the NDP, whose support was critical to the survival of the Liberals' minority government in the Legislative Assembly, would vote against the Liberals' proposed budget. [5]

With the election, Wynne became the first woman and the first openly gay person to lead a party to a majority victory in an Ontario general election. [6] [7]

Timeline (2011–2014)

Seat changes

40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held from 2011 to 2014
Party2011Gain/(loss) due to2014
ResignationByelection holdByelection gain
Liberal 53(8)348
Progressive Conservative 37(2)1137
New Democratic 17421
Vacant–11
Total107(9)45107
Changes in seats held (2011–2014)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Kitchener—Waterloo April 27, 2012 Elizabeth Witmer █  PC Resignation [a 1] September 6, 2012 Catherine Fife █  New Democratic
Vaughan August 1, 2012 Greg Sorbara █  Liberal Resignation [a 2] September 6, 2012 Steven Del Duca █  Liberal
London West February 14, 2013 [8] Chris Bentley █  Liberal Resignation [a 3] August 1, 2013 [9] Peggy Sattler █  New Democratic
Windsor—Tecumseh February 14, 2013 Dwight Duncan █  Liberal Resignation [a 4] August 1, 2013 Percy Hatfield █  New Democratic
Ottawa South June 12, 2013 [10] Dalton McGuinty █  Liberal ResignationAugust 1, 2013 John Fraser █  Liberal
Scarborough—Guildwood June 27, 2013 [11] Margarett Best █  Liberal ResignationAugust 1, 2013 Mitzie Hunter █  Liberal
Etobicoke—Lakeshore July 2, 2013 [12] Laurel Broten █  Liberal Resignation [a 5] August 1, 2013 Doug Holyday █  PC
Niagara Falls September 24, 2013 [13] Kim Craitor █  Liberal ResignationFebruary 13, 2014 [14] Wayne Gates █  New Democratic
Thornhill December 31, 2013 [15] Peter Shurman █  PC ResignationFebruary 13, 2014 Gila Martow █  PC
Brampton—Springdale March 25, 2014 [16] Linda Jeffrey █  Liberal Resignation [a 6] █ Vacant

Other developments

DateEvent
October 6, 2011 Election held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
November 22, 2011The 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario opens with a Speech from the throne. [17]
March 28, 2012 Dwight Duncan presents the Government's first minority budget, requiring support from at least one of the other two parties to ensure passage and avoid an early election.
April 10, 2012NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes several demands to be met in exchange for her party to support the Liberal budget, which support is necessary for the approval of the budget following Tim Hudak's outright rejection of it. [18]
June 15, 2012 Premier Dalton McGuinty states he will drop the writ if his budget is not passed. [19]
June 20, 2012The budget bill is passed, after the NDP agrees to abstain, avoiding a summer election. [20]
October 15, 2012Dalton McGuinty announces his resignation as Premier of Ontario and as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. [21]
January 26, 2013 Kathleen Wynne is elected Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. [22]
February 11, 2013Wynne is sworn in as Premier, and a new cabinet is sworn in. [23]
February 20, 2013Wynne resumes the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario with a Speech of the Throne.
May 1, 2014Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces that his caucus will be voting against the Liberals' budget, proposed earlier that day.
May 2, 2014NDP leader Andrea Horwath announces that the NDP will be voting against the Liberals' proposed budget, triggering a spring election. [5] Following this, Premier Wynne formally asks Lieutenant Governor David Onley to dissolve the legislature and call an election for June 12, 2014. [24]
June 12, 2014The Liberal Party wins a majority, claiming 58 ridings in the Ontario election. [25] Tim Hudak announced that he is stepping down from his leadership of the PC party. [26]
June 14, 2014A judicial recount has been requested in the riding of Thornhill. [27]
June 24, 2014A judge confirms results in Thornhill are in favour of the Progressive Conservatives. [28]

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral districtIncumbent at dissolution and subsequent nomineeNew MPP
Durham   John O'Toole [29] Mike Patrick  Granville Anderson
Etobicoke Centre   Donna Cansfield [30] Yvan Baker  Yvan Baker
Kingston and the Islands   John Gerretsen [31] Sophie Kiwala  Sophie Kiwala
Kitchener Centre   John Milloy [32] Daiene Vernile  Daiene Vernile
Newmarket—Aurora   Frank Klees [33] [34] Jane Twinney  Chris Ballard
Ottawa—Orléans   Phil McNeely [35] Marie-France Lalonde  Marie-France Lalonde
Sudbury   Rick Bartolucci [36] Andrew Olivier  Joe Cimino

Results

↓
582821
LiberalPCNDP
Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
PartyParty leaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote [37] [38]
2011 Dissol. 2014Change#%Change
Liberal Kathleen Wynne 1075348585Increase2.svg1,863,97438.67%1.02%Increase2.svg
Progressive Conservative Tim Hudak 1073737289Decrease2.svg1,505,43631.23%4.22%Decrease2.svg
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 1071721214Increase2.svg1,144,82223.75%1.01%Increase2.svg
Green Mike Schreiner 107––––235,9114.89%1.97%Increase2.svg
Libertarian Allen Small 74––––37,6960.78%0.33%Increase2.svg
Freedom Paul McKeever 42––––12,3810.26%0.05%Increase2.svg
Family Coalition Eric Ames (interim)6––––4,2880.09%0.13%Decrease2.svg
None of the Above Greg Vezina 8––––4,2470.09%–
Independent  14––––3,8540.08%–
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 11––––2,2900.05%0.02%Increase2.svg
Canadians' ChoiceBahman Yazdanfar4––––1,2930.03%0.03%Increase2.svg
Vegan EnvironmentalPaul Figueiras5––––9070.02%0.01%Increase2.svg
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 5––––8940.02%0.01%Increase2.svg
Northern Ontario Heritage Edward Deibel3––––8920.02%–
Special Needs Danish Ahmed3––––7090.01%0.01%Decrease2.svg
Confederation of Regions vacant2––––5510.01%–
Trillium Bob Yaciuk2––––3970.01%–
Equal Parenting Dennis Valenta2––––3660.01%–
Socialist Michael Laxer 2––––3610.01%–
Moderate Yuri Duboisky2––––3350.01%–
Pauper John Turmel 3––––194––
 Declined Vote [39] 31,3990.64%+0.59%
 Vacant1
Total6161071071074,820,547
PartyVotesSeats
Liberal 1,863,974
38.67%
Increase2.svg 1.02%
58 / 107 (54%)
Progressive Conservative 1,505,436
31.23%
Decrease2.svg 4.22%
28 / 107 (26%)
New Democratic 1,144,822
23.75%
Increase2.svg 1.01%
21 / 107 (20%)
Green 235,911
4.89%
Increase2.svg 1.97%
0 / 107 (0%)
Libertarian 37,696
0.78%
Increase2.svg 0.33%
0 / 107 (0%)
Popular vote
Liberal
 
38.67%
PC
 
31.23%
New Democratic
 
23.75%
Green
 
4.89%
Others
 
1.46%
Seats summary
Liberal
 
54.21%
PC
 
26.17%
New Democratic
 
19.63%

Synopsis of results

Results by riding - 2014 Ontario general election [a 1]
Riding 2011 Winning partyTurnout
[a 2] 		Votes [a 3]
PartyVotesShareMargin
#		Margin
%		 Lib PC NDP Green IndOtherTotal
 
Ajax—Pickering LibLib26,25751.06%11,25821.89%50.18%26,25714,9998,2741,589–30151,420
Algoma—Manitoulin NDPNDP14,17153.41%7,66728.90%49.38%6,5044,58914,171828–44126,533
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale LibLib24,04244.56%5,79010.73%59.02%24,04218,2528,4152,639–61153,959
Barrie PCLib19,91640.69%2,2494.60%49.18%19,91617,6677,9753,018–36648,942
Beaches—East York NDPLib17,21840.09%4811.12%56.14%17,2185,98216,7372,329–68242,948
Bramalea—Gore—Malton NDPNDP23,51944.32%5,64610.64%45.03%17,8739,40323,5192,277––53,072
Brampton—Springdale LibLib16,92740.06%3,4148.08%45.34%16,92710,11713,5131,311–38242,250
Brampton West LibLib24,83245.23%11,46920.89%42.50%24,83213,36312,9851,504–2,41854,902
Brant LibLib19,39637.63%3,9497.66%52.51%19,39615,44713,9922,095–61451,544
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCPC20,35947.55%8,77320.49%53.93%11,58620,3596,7873,696–38842,816
Burlington PCLib23,57343.41%3,4876.42%57.73%23,57320,0867,7922,250–60854,309
Cambridge PCLib18,76338.93%3,0696.37%48.95%18,76315,69410,4132,726–60548,201
Carleton—Mississippi Mills PCPC30,59047.49%10,11815.71%56.08%20,47230,5908,7444,614––64,420
Chatham-Kent—Essex PCPC14,18337.83%2,5196.72%51.33%9,15814,18311,6641,971–51437,490
Davenport NDPLib16,27245.61%1,9505.47%49.56%16,2722,66514,3221,784–63135,674
Don Valley East LibLib19,24855.71%9,99128.92%47.85%19,2489,2574,5001,256–28734,548
Don Valley West LibLib26,21557.01%12,13326.39%53.90%26,21514,0823,5691,28613869045,980
Dufferin—Caledon PCPC18,01739.86%4,1569.19%51.48%13,86118,0175,2697,518–53845,203
Durham PCLib19,81636.45%1,1762.16%55.71%19,81618,64013,0942,382–43454,366
Eglinton—Lawrence LibLib22,85554.80%8.77621.04%53.99%22,85514,0793,0601,30514326441,706
Elgin—Middlesex—London PCPC20,94646.36%8,91219.72%53.98%9,18320,94612,0342,236–78445,183
Essex NDPNDP28,11860.34%17,94938.52%50.20%6,62810,16928,1181,685––46,600
Etobicoke Centre LibLib23,84850.28%8,32817.56%56.47%23,84815,5205,7581,254–1,05247,432
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LibLib24,31147.49%6,72413.13%53.73%24,31117,5876,3622,064–86951,193
Etobicoke North LibLib12,16844.90%5,06518.69%42.71%12,1686,1637,103677–98727,098
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LibLib23,56549.74%8,13617.17%53.36%23,56515,4295,9021,52829665547,375
Guelph LibLib22,01441.52%10,96620.68%55.47%22,01411,0489,38510,230–34853,025
Haldimand—Norfolk PCPC22,06652.22%12,28029.06%53.97%8,33122,0669,7862,071––42,254
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCPC21,64140.96%3,1295.92%55.98%18,51221,64110,4312,255––52,839
Halton PCLib33,72444.79%5,7877.69%50.90%33,72427,9379,7582,618–1,26275,299
Hamilton Centre NDPNDP18,69752.01%10,24728.50%44.76%8,4505,17318,6973,067–56335,950
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDPNDP19,95846.81%7,52517.65%48.84%12,4337,57419,9581,742–93042,637
Hamilton Mountain NDPNDP23,00646.90%8,49817.32%52.85%14,5088,79523,0062,047–69949,055
Huron—Bruce PCPC18,51239.01%3,8658.14%59.96%14,64718,51210,8431,651–1,80447,457
Kenora—Rainy River NDPNDP12,88955.66%6,98430.16%46.72%3,6525,90512,889711––23,157
Kingston and the Islands LibLib20,83841.59%6,02712.03%52.14%20,83810,65214,8113,566–24250,109
Kitchener Centre LibLib18,47243.14%6,92216.17%52.28%18,47211,5509,7652,472–55742,816
Kitchener—Conestoga PCPC17,08336.36%1,4193.02%50.33%15,66417,0839,9583,277–1,00146,983
Kitchener—Waterloo PCNDP20,53637.43%4,0027.29%54.95%16,53414,45020,5362,859–48154,860
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCPC20,71045.17%8,55018.65%56.93%9,29820,71012,1602,104–1,57545,847
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington PCPC21,96643.52%6,92913.73%53.95%15,03721,96610,1843,283––50,470
Leeds—Grenville PCPC23,25356.07%14,75435.58%52.86%8,49923,2537,2192,030–47141,472
London—Fanshawe NDPNDP17,90350.42%9,70727.34%46.42%7,0668,19617,9031,37811285335,508
London North Centre LibLib16,37935.98%2,5265.55%50.21%16,37912,01613,8532,445–82445,517
London West LibNDP22,24340.36%5,94810.79%56.03%13,07016,29522,2432,310–1,18855,106
Markham—Unionville LibLib21,51751.33%7,27617.36%44.54%21,51714,2414,2051,509–44441,916
Mississauga—Brampton South LibLib19,92348.21%8,67220.99%41.48%19,92311,2516,9061,3023511,59041,323
Mississauga East—Cooksville LibLib20,93452.33%10,45526.14%43.89%20,93410,4796,1581,408–1,02240,001
Mississauga—Erindale LibLib25,35648.98%9,88219.09%46.90%25,35615,4747,7301,216–1,98851,764
Mississauga South LibLib22,19250.76%7,67817.56%53.55%22,19214,5144,6491,418–94643,719
Mississauga—Streetsville LibLib22,58752.57%10,52724.50%46.76%22,58712,0605,8851,566–86642,964
Nepean—Carleton PCPC30,90146.77%8,92713.51%55.39%21,97430,9018,6283,630–94066,073
Newmarket—Aurora PCLib22,99743.94%3,4126.52%53.40%22,99719,5856,0232,144–1,58452,333
Niagara Falls LibNDP24,13147.39%7,42914.59%51.21%7,32916,70224,1311,724–1,03750,923
Niagara West—Glanbrook PCPC23,37841.82%7,53513.48%58.59%15,84323,37812,4233,004–1,25455,902
Nickel Belt NDPNDP20,10462.62%13,07340.72%50.00%7,0313,82720,1041,145––32,107
Nipissing PCPC13,08541.81%4,70315.03%52.49%8,38213,0858,0571,18820837731,297
Northumberland—Quinte West PCLib23,41942.97%3,8367.04%55.81%23,41919,5839,2112,283––54,496
Oak Ridges—Markham LibLib36,78245.55%6,5268.08%46.21%36,78230,2569,3552,791–1,57180,755
Oakville LibLib24,71749.40%5,79611.58%56.13%24,71718,9213,9941,887–51850,037
Oshawa PCNDP22,23246.70%7,69216.16%50.19%9,05114,54022,2321,785––47,608
Ottawa Centre LibLib27,68952.02%16,79531.55%56.85%27,6899,67810,8944,163–80853,232
Ottawa—Orléans LibLib29,91153.50%11,38620.37%59.33%29,91118,5255,0222,036–41155,905
Ottawa South LibLib23,70849.96%8,47317.86%53.71%23,70815,2355,8172,034–65647,450
Ottawa—Vanier LibLib21,81055.55%13,06033.26%48.86%21,8108,7505,2283,144–32939,261
Ottawa West—Nepean LibLib21,03544.84%5,14010.96%55.95%21,03515,8956,7602,899–31846,907
Oxford PCPC18,95846.24%8,38520.45%51.92%8,73618,95810,5731,985–74941,001
Parkdale—High Park NDPNDP18,38540.77%5441.21%56.88%17,8415,78718,3852,479–60145,093
Parry Sound—Muskoka PCPC15,76140.73%5,60314.48%52.11%10,15815,7614,9997,484–29638,698
Perth—Wellington PCPC15,99238.96%2,4075.86%55.66%13,58515,9927,7642,0053431,35941,048
Peterborough LibLib24,70946.33%8,80216.50%57.30%24,70915,9079,7282,28739530553,331
Pickering—Scarborough East LibLib23,20651.96%10,56823.66%54.77%23,20612,6386,6001,564–65444,662
Prince Edward—Hastings PCPC19,28141.72%4,1769.04%51.61%15,10519,2818,8292,448–55546,218
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCPC25,24161.07%17,34441.96%54.32%7,89725,2415,9781,33739248941,334
Richmond Hill LibLib20,45547.78%4,81311.24%45.69%20,45515,6424,6971,344–67042,808
St. Catharines LibLib19,07041.00%5,25611.30%54.80%19,07013,81411,3501,792–48846,514
St. Paul's LibLib30,02759.74%17,99035.79%57.11%30,02712,0375,0562,569–57250,261
Sarnia—Lambton PCPC18,72241.01%2,3955.25%57.35%8,15218,72216,3272,109–34045,650
Sault Ste. Marie LibLib17,49058.53%9,88033.06%50.77%17,4903,7047,610965–11529,884
Scarborough—Agincourt LibLib17,33249.84%5,29115.22%46.04%17,33212,0414,105907–38734,772
Scarborough Centre LibLib19,39055.05%11,79133.48%48.09%19,3907,5997,1451,086––35,220
Scarborough—Guildwood LibLib17,31849.89%7,59721.89%49.24%17,3189,7215,8941,034–74434,711
Scarborough—Rouge River LibLib16,09538.71%3,0767.40%47.48%16,09511,50013,019571–39841,583
Scarborough Southwest LibLib18,42050.23%9,74626.58%49.91%18,4207,5738,6741,49318532836,673
Simcoe—Grey PCPC25,98847.12%8,78915.94%52.00%17,19925,9887,7934,172––55,152
Simcoe North PCPC22,17943.96%5,76611.43%53.33%16,41322,1797,8464,013––50,451
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCPC20,62451.72%11,37428.52%52.02%9,25020,6248,3361,067–60239,879
Sudbury LibNDP14,27442.24%9782.89%51.92%13,2964,66314,2741,21210524333,793
Thornhill PCPC21,88643.99%1060.21%47.83%21,78021,8864,0521,229–80449,751
Thunder Bay—Atikokan LibLib15,17652.98%7,12424.87%49.02%15,1763,7798,052964–67628,647
Thunder Bay—Superior North LibLib15,51955.97%7,35026.51%50.41%15,5191,9918,169997–1,04927,725
Timiskaming—Cochrane NDPNDP14,66155.48%8,52732.27%50.68%6,1344,52714,661489–61526,426
Timmins—James Bay NDPNDP11,75651.18%6,22927.12%45.15%5,5275,22611,756403–6022,972
Toronto Centre LibLib29,93558.47%20,43739.92%50.86%29,9359,4988,1402,265–1,35751,195
Toronto—Danforth NDPNDP19,19044.61%3,2077.46%55.30%15,9834,30419,1902,351–1,18943,017
Trinity—Spadina NDPLib26,61346.34%9,17115.97%49.33%26,6138,03517,4424,033–1,31157,434
Vaughan LibLib33,87756.21%16,89828.04%44.68%33,87716,9796,9421,350–1,12160,269
Welland NDPNDP21,32646.71%8,39318.38%53.20%9,06012,93321,3261,874–46045,653
Wellington—Halton Hills PCPC22,45046.61%8,33017.29%55.61%14,12022,4506,8043,550–1,24148,165
Whitby—Oshawa PCPC24,02740.65%5,4109.15%54.35%18,61724,02713,6212,523–32259,110
Willowdale LibLib24,30052.58%8,83219.11%46.88%24,30015,4684,6931,758––46,219
Windsor—Tecumseh LibNDP22,81862.16%17,21946.91%42.77%5,5992,11822,8185,493–68236,710
Windsor West LibNDP15,04341.41%1,0422.87%42.71%14,0015,22515,0431,171891–36,331
York Centre LibLib16,93547.89%5,81016.43%46.74%16,93511,1255,6451,163–49335,361
York—Simcoe PCPC19,02540.40%2,7495.84%47.53%16,27619,0258,4202,946–41947,086
York South—Weston LibLib15,66947.85%3,46910.59%46.13%15,6693,68712,20079714624932,748
York West LibLib11,90746.71%1,9107.49%42.24%11,9072,7949,99741811126725,494
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected
  = incumbency arose from byelection gain
  1. ↑ "2014 General Election". elections.on.ca. Elections Ontario . Retrieved June 18, 2023.
  2. ↑ including spoilt ballots
  3. ↑ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Maps

Summary analysis

Number of seats held by party in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario (2014). Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Seats by Party (2014).png
Number of seats held by party in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario (2014).
Retention swing analysis between parties for the 2014 Ontario general election, compared to the results from the previous 2011 election. 41onla 2014 retention swing.png
Retention swing analysis between parties for the 2014 Ontario general election, compared to the results from the previous 2011 election.
Gallagher index for the results of the Ontario general election, 2014. There is significant distortion noted in the Liberal results. Gallagher on2014.png
Gallagher index for the results of the Ontario general election, 2014. There is significant distortion noted in the Liberal results.
Polling station in Toronto for the Ontario general election, 2014. MitchellFieldCommunityCentre2014Election.JPG
Polling station in Toronto for the Ontario general election, 2014.
Popular vote
partyyearvoteschange
Liberal2011
  
37.65%+1.02pp
2014
  
38.67%
Conservative2011
  
35.45%-4.22pp
2014
  
31.23%
NDP2011
  
22.74%+1.01pp
2014
  
23.75%
Green2011
  
2.92%+1.97pp
2014
  
4.89%
Libertarian2011
  
0.45%+0.33pp
2014
  
0.78%
Others2011
  
0.79%-0.11pp
2014
  
0.68%


Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won/lost by party, 2011-2014
Party2011Gain from (loss to)2014
LibPCNDP
   Liberal 5373(5)58
   Conservative 37(7)(2)28
   New Democratic 175(3)221
Total1075(10)93(7)107

Pairing off the top three parties, swings were calculated to be:

  • PC to Liberal: 2.6%
  • PC to NDP: 2.6%
  • Liberal to NDP: insignificant

Regional analysis

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won by region (2014)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
   Liberal 201445741358
   Conservative 216764228
   New Democratic 22515621
Total2218101114111011107
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - change in seats by region (2011-2014)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
   Liberal 3141(3)(1)5
   Conservative (1)(2)(4)(2)(9)
   New Democratic (3)111314

Principal races

Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
LibPCNDP
Liberal –431558
Progressive Conservative 22–628
New Democratic 147–21
Total365021107
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
PartiesSeats
█  Liberal █  Progressive Conservative 65
█  Liberal █  New Democratic 29
█  Progressive Conservative █  New Democratic 13
Total107
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties1st2nd3rd4th5thTotal
█  Liberal 583613107
█  Progressive Conservative 2850281107
█  New Democratic 2121623107
█  Green 41012107
█  Libertarian 16162
█  Northern Ontario Heritage 11
█  Freedom 1515
█  None of the Above 44
█  Family Coalition 33
█  Independent 22
█  Communist 22
█  Confederation of Regions 22
█ Canadians' Choice11
█  Trillium 11

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

RidingPartyCandidatesVotesPlaced
Huron—Bruce █  FamilyCoalition Andrew Zettel1,3535th
Kitchener—Conestoga █  Libertarian David Schumm1,0015th
London West █  Freedom Al Gretzky1,1885th
Oak Ridges—Markham █  Libertarian Karl Boelling1,3585th
Vaughan █  Libertarian Paolo Fabrizio1,1215th
Wellington—Halton Hills █  Libertarian Jason Cousineau1,0435th

Seats changing hands

There were 17 seats that changed allegiance from the 2011 election.

Resulting composition of the 41st Legislative Assembly of Ontario
SourceParty
LibPCNDPTotal
Seats retainedIncumbents returned42281484
Open seats held55
Byelection loss reversed11
Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated8210
Open seats gained213
Byelection gains held44
Total582821107

Marginal seats

The following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in the election:

Marginal constituencies (Ontario general election, 2014) [40]
ConstituencyRank of partiesMarginsResult
1st2nd3rd1st vs 2nd1st vs 3rd
Barrie 40.7%36.1%16.3%4.6%24.4% Lib gain
Beaches—East York 40.1%39.0%13.9%1.1%26.2% Lib gain
Durham 36.5%34.3%24.1%2.2%12.4% Lib gain
Kitchener—Conestoga 36.4%33.3%21.2%3.1%15.2% PC hold
Parkdale—High Park 40.8%40.0%12.8%0.8%28.0% NDP hold
Sudbury 42.2%39.4%13.8%2.8%28.4% NDP gain
Thornhill 44.0%43.8%8.1%0.2%35.9% PC hold
Windsor West 41.4%38.5%14.4%2.9%27.0% NDP gain

Opinion polls

Voting intention polls released throughout the election campaign were distinctly inconsistent and contradictory, [41] [42] [43] [44] as shown in the graph and table below. During much of the campaign, different pollsters persistently disagreed, frequently by important margins, on whether the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives held the lead, though by the final days most polls showed the Liberals marginally to comfortably ahead. Still, polls completed on the last day of the campaign by Ipsos Reid and EKOS showed vastly divergent support for the NDP, at 30% and 19%, respectively. Also of note, although four different pollsters released results among "likely voters" alongside their results among all eligible voters in an effort to better predict the outcome of the election based on expected voter turnout, in all cases the former proved to be overall poorer predictors than the latter. [45]

General opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions during the 2014 Ontario general election campaign. Dots represent results of individual polls. Lines connect successive polls by the same polling firm. Dashes on June 12 represent election results. Polling during the 2014 Ontario election campaign.png
Evolution of voting intentions during the 2014 Ontario general election campaign. Dots represent results of individual polls. Lines connect successive polls by the same polling firm. Dashes on June 12 represent election results.
Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other Type
of poll 		Sample
size		 Margin
of Error
Election 2014June 12, 2014 HTML 38.6531.2523.754.841.51Ballot4,851,333
Forum Research June 11, 2014 PDF 41352031 IVR 1,054±3%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS [2] June 11, 2014 PDF 37.331.319.28.23.9 IVR 1,311±2.7%19  "times out of".png  20
Abacus Data [2] June 11, 2014 PDF 35322661 Online 1,882±2.3%19  "times out of".png  20
Ipsos Reid [2] June 11, 2014 HTML 3331305 Online 1,991±2.4% 
EKOS [2] June 10, 2014 PDF 36.630.221.56.65.0 IVR 1,332±2.7%19  "times out of".png  20
Angus Reid [2] June 10, 2014 PDF 36322651 Online 1,866±2.3%19  "times out of".png  20
Forum Research June 9, 2014 PDF 42351931 IVR 739±4%19  "times out of".png  20
Léger Marketing June 9, 2014 PDF 37372051 Online 1,050±3.2%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS [2] June 9, 2014 PDF 34.734.519.86.74.3 IVR 1,417±2.6%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS [2] June 8, 2014 PDF 35.935.917.67.72.8 IVR 1,331±2.7%19  "times out of".png  20
Oraclepoll ResearchJune 8, 2014 PDF 3536245 Telephone 1,000±3.1%19  "times out of".png  20
Abacus Data [2] June 7, 2014 PDF 34312851 Online 1,000±3.1%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS [2] June 6, 2014 PDF 34.235.520.57.42.4 IVR 1,767±2.3%19  "times out of".png  20
Ipsos Reid [2] June 6, 2014 HTML 3535264 Online 2,140±2.4% 
Forum Research June 5, 2014 PDF 39371761 IVR 1,022±3%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS [2] June 5, 2014 PDF 33.934.920.58.42.3 IVR 1,690±2.4%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS [2] June 4, 2014 PDF 35.730.919.89.64.0 IVR 1,303±2.7%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS June 3, 2014 PDF 36.431.019.38.44.9 IVR 997±3.1%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS June 2, 2014 PDF 38.830.517.88.44.5 IVR 934±3.2%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS June 1, 2014 PDF 38.533.716.97.83.0 IVR 927±3.2%19  "times out of".png  20
Abacus Data [2] May 31, 2014 PDF 37302472 Online 1,000±3.1%19  "times out of".png  20
Ipsos Reid [2] May 29, 2014 HTML 3436237 Online 868±3.8% 
Forum Research May 27, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-05-29 at the Wayback Machine 36362071 IVR 882±3%19  "times out of".png  20
Oraclepoll ResearchMay 27, 2014 PDF 3236257 Telephone 1,000±3.1%19  "times out of".png  20
Nanos Research May 26, 2014 PDF 37.731.223.75.3 Telephone 500±4.4%19  "times out of".png  20
Abacus Data [2] May 24, 2014 PDF 34322562 Online 1,000±3.1%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS May 23, 2014 PDF 35.830.020.411.91.9 IVR 1,215±2.8%19  "times out of".png  20
Ipsos Reid [2] May 21, 2014 HTML 3135286 Online 800±3.9% 
Forum Research May 20, 2014 PDF 41342041 IVR 1,136±3%19  "times out of".png  20
Abacus Data [2] May 16, 2014 PDF 33332662 Online 2,000±2.2%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS May 15, 2014 PDF 37.130.320.97.34.5 IVR 1,111±2.9%19  "times out of".png  20
Ipsos Reid [2] May 14, 2014 HTML 3039247 Online 801±3.9% 
Forum Research May 12, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-05-17 at the Wayback Machine 38352151 IVR 996±3%19  "times out of".png  20
Ipsos Reid [2] May 9, 2014 HTML 3137284 Online 821±3.9% 
Innovative Research May 6, 2014 PDF 38.832.819.96.52.0 Online 1,000N/A [1]
Innovative Research May 6, 2014 PDF 38.732.823.74.30.5 Telephone 500±4.4%19  "times out of".png  20
Oraclepoll ResearchMay 5, 2014 PDF [ permanent dead link ‍]

HTML

3142253 Telephone 1,000±3.2%19  "times out of".png  20
Forum Research May 3, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-05-05 at the Wayback Machine 33382261 IVR 1,845±2%19  "times out of".png  20
EKOS May 1, 2014 PDF 34.731.622.29.42.0 IVR 1,576±2.5%19  "times out of".png  20
Election 2011 October 6, 2011 PDF 37.6535.4522.742.921.24Ballot4,316,382

1 Innovative Research states, for Province Wide Online Survey, "Margin of error not applicable, online samples not random."
2 Data shown above for campaign-period polls are top-line results, typically among all eligible voters. However, certain pollsters additionally report results among "likely voters" in an effort to better predict the actual outcome of the election. When available, these alternative results are shown in the following table:

Likely voters

Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link Liberal PC NDP Green Libertarian Other
EKOS June 11, 2014 PDF 42.235.916.92.92.1
Abacus Data June 11, 2014 PDF 36362351
Ipsos Reid June 11, 2014 HTML 3036304
EKOS June 10, 2014 PDF 41.133.217.15.62.9
Angus Reid June 10, 2014 PDF 34362451
EKOS June 9, 2014 PDF 38.136.316.95.73.1
EKOS June 8, 2014 PDF 42.235.413.96.42.0
Abacus Data June 7, 2014 PDF 34342651
EKOS June 6, 2014 PDF 40.735.716.35.61.8
Ipsos Reid June 6, 2014 HTML 3240243
EKOS June 5, 2014 PDF 39.535.616.76.62
EKOS June 4, 2014 PDF 41.432.017.86.23
Abacus Data May 31, 2014 PDF 37352252
Ipsos Reid May 29, 2014 HTML 2941254
Abacus Data May 24, 2014 PDF 36332461
Ipsos Reid May 21, 2014 HTML 3041263
Abacus Data May 16, 2014 PDF 33362551
Ipsos Reid May 14, 2014 HTML 3143224
Ipsos Reid May 9, 2014 HTML 2842272

Pre-campaign period

Evolution of voting intentions since the 40th Ontario general election on October 6, 2011. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages. ON provincial polling since the 2011 election (alt).png
Evolution of voting intentions since the 40th Ontario general election on October 6, 2011. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.
Pre-campaign period polling (October 2011 – April 2014)
Polling firmLast date of pollingLink Liberal PC NDP Green Type of pollSample size
Ipsos Reid April 17, 2014 HTML 3237275 Online 813
Innovative Research April 14, 2014 PDF 3930237 Online 800
Nanos Research April 11, 2014 PDF 36.336.021.65.7 Telephone 503
Forum Research April 7, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-04-13 at the Wayback Machine 3138237 IVR 928
Oraclepoll ResearchApril 7, 2014 PDF 3534248 Telephone 1,000
EKOS April 3, 2014 PDF 32.327.429.08.3 IVR 1,234
Innovative Research March 26, 2014 PDF 3833254 Online 1,017
Forum Research March 24, 2014 PDF Archived 2014-04-07 at the Wayback Machine 3532257 IVR 908
Nanos Research March 3, 2014 PDF 35.732.924.56.8 Telephone 500
Forum Research February 25, 2014 HTML 3235266 IVR 1,014
Ipsos Reid February 7, 2014 HTML 3134314 Online 828
Forum Research January 25, 2014 HTML 3336264 IVR 1,222
Nanos Research January 20, 2014 PDF 35.528.127.48.1 Telephone 500
Forum Research December 18, 2013 HTML 3138245 IVR 1,044
Forum Research November 26, 2013 PDF Archived 2013-12-19 at the Wayback Machine 3238236 IVR 1,126
Ipsos Reid November 6, 2013 HTML 3431315 Online 832
Forum Research October 25, 2013 HTML 3134277 IVR 1,049
Forum Research October 1, 2013 HTML 3336237 IVR 1,093
Nanos Research September 29, 2013 PDF 36.031.326.16.3 Telephone 500
Campaign Research September 19, 2013 PDF 3632228 IVR 1,414
Abacus Data September 4, 2013 PDF 3033305 Online 1,000
Forum Research August 28, 2013 PDF 3235266 IVR 1,063
Innovative Research August 27, 2013 HTML 37302210 Telephone 600
Forum Research July 22, 2013 PDF 3136275 IVR 914
Nanos Research July 14, 2013 PDF 37.230.627.04.9 Telephone 500
EKOS July 9, 2013 PDF 31.928.925.99.4 IVR 830
Forum Research June 26, 2013 PDF 3335248 IVR 1,037
Forum Research May 28, 2013 PDF 3834216 IVR 918
EKOS May 26, 2013 HTML 34.929.622.69.4 IVR 1,152
Ipsos Reid May 21, 2013 HTML 3434265 Online 1,772
Abacus Data May 9, 2013 PDF 3434256 Online 1,185
Innovative Research May 9, 2013 PDF 3730256 Telephone 610
Forum Research May 3, 2013 PDF 3535254 IVR 869
Forum Research April 26, 2013 PDF 3636244 IVR 1,133
Ipsos Reid April 17, 2013 HTML 2837296 Online 1,360
EKOS April 10, 2013 PDF 30.831.725.59.7 IVR 1,084
Forum Research March 27, 2013 PDF 3335265 IVR 1,156
Forum Research March 1, 2013 PDF 3232295 IVR 2,773
Forum Research February 20, 2013 PDF 2936285 IVR 1,053
Nanos Research February 13, 2013 PDF 33.633.726.55.4 Telephone 500
EKOS February 10, 2013 PDF 32.528.525.610.1 IVR 1,797
Abacus Data February 6, 2013 PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine 3033315 Online 1,020
Innovative Research January 29, 2013 PDF 3130279 Telephone 446
Forum Research January 24, 2013 PDF 2732355 IVR 1,108
Forum Research December 17, 2012 PDF 2733318 IVR 990
Abacus Data December 8, 2012 PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine 2835315 Online 821
Forum Research November 28, 2012 PDF 2935278 IVR 1,127
Oraclepoll ResearchNovember 24, 2012 PDF 2637316 Telephone
Forum Research October 31, 2012 PDF 2237327 IVR 1,102
Innovative Research October 22, 2012 PDF 2832319 Telephone 600
Angus Reid October 17, 2012 PDF 2636325 Online 802
Forum Research September 25, 2012 PDF 2037357 IVR 851
Nanos Research August 16, 2012 PDF 34.034.722.16.8 Telephone 1,000
Forum Research August 15, 2012 PDF 2738286 IVR 1,021
Forum Research June 15, 2012 PDF 2638305 IVR 1,098
Forum Research June 4, 2012 PDF 2836304 IVR 1,038
Environics May 25, 2012 PDF 25372810 Telephone 500
Forum Research May 14, 2012 PDF 2734325 IVR 1,072
Nanos Research May 13, 2012 PDF 31.033.628.55.6 Telephone 500
Forum Research April 17, 2012 PDF 2834315 IVR 1,084
Nanos Research April 15, 2012 PDF 35.432.126.56.0 Telephone 501
Environics April 13, 2012 HTML 2737306 Telephone 500
Forum Research March 28, 2012 PDF 3034305 IVR 1,131
Forum Research March 13, 2012 PDF 2840238 IVR 1,065
Nanos Research March 5, 2012 PDF 39.930.024.74.3 Telephone 500
Forum Research February 15, 2012 PDF 3236265 IVR 1,218
Forum Research January 18, 2012 PDF 3341204 IVR 1,041
Nanos Research November 13, 2011 PDF 39.134.521.63.5 Telephone 500
Innovative Research November 2, 2011 PDF 3934234 Online 545
Election 2011 October 6, 2011 PDF 37.6535.4522.742.92Ballot4,316,382

Issues

Economy

Unemployment in Ontario was a major political issue. In particular, the manufacturing sector had shrunk by about 30% or more than 300,000 jobs since 2002. [46]

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario proposed a plan called "Million Jobs Plan", outlining their strategy for job creation and economic growth. By reducing tax, government services, energy costs and regulations the PCs projected to create a cumulative 507,488 jobs over eight years. [47] The plan also called for the reduction of 100,000 civil service jobs. Economists and critics noted fundamental mathematical errors with the PCs' projections. They held, even if the PCs' own data were correctly tabulated, only 50,000 extra jobs would be created (in addition to the 500,000 that would be created anyway without any policy change). [48]

The Ontario Liberal Party proposed the 10 year "Jobs and Investment Plan", which proposed infrastructure investments as their main strategy to create jobs. [49]

The Ontario New Democratic Party platform called for targeted tax credits and incentives to encourage job creation. [50]

The Green Party of Ontario policy proposal stated that it would "focus on your job by lowering payroll taxes for small businesses" as well as investing in transit infrastructure and subsidising energy-saving home improvements. [51]

The Ontario Libertarian Party called for mass privatization, lower taxes and general deregulation, eliminating many business requirements such as permitting, insurance and certification that they considered to be interfering with job creation. [52] Their platform called for government spending to be limited to "only core functions of government; defending life, liberty, and property" [53] and as such would have eliminated industry subsidies or incentives of any kind, particularly in the energy sector. [54]

The Communist Party of Ontario called for raising the minimum wage to $19/hr as well as introducing a guaranteed annual income, nationalization of the domestic steel industry, and investments in public housing, infrastructure and social programs, while shifting taxes from lower to higher income-earners and businesses. [55]

Transit

Due to rapid urban and suburban expansion in southern Ontario, traffic congestion had been increasing greatly. A 2013 study by the CD Howe Institute determined that it was costing $7.5-11 billion annually for the economy of Toronto alone. [56] [57]

The Liberals promised $29 billion in infrastructure spending, $15 billion of which would go towards building new transit (mostly LRT) lines in the GTHA, based on the outline of Metrolinx's The Big Move plan, as well as an LRT in Ottawa. [58] [59] A high-speed rail line crossing the province from the southeast into Quebec was also planned. The PCs promised to finish building the Eglinton Crosstown, but cancel all the other planned lines, and instead focus on quickly expanding GO service. [60] The NDP plan was similar to the Liberal plan, but included an extra $1 billion to get certain projects built faster. [58]

Endorsements

Media endorsements

The following media outlets made endorsements during the campaign:

Liberal

Progressive Conservative

New Democratic Party

Explicitly not endorsing any party

Public figure endorsements

The media has reported the following endorsements by public figures during the campaign:

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References

  1. ↑ "STATISTICAL SUMMARY" (PDF). Elections Ontario. June 13, 2014. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 25, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  2. ↑ "Ontario election 2014: Liberals return to power with majority". CBC News. June 12, 2014. Archived from the original on May 11, 2017. Retrieved June 12, 2014.
  3. ↑ "Ontario election 2014: Tim Hudak to step down". CBC News. June 12, 2014. Archived from the original on June 12, 2019. Retrieved June 12, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Ontario election 2014: Wynne vows to re-introduce budget - Toronto - CBC News". CBC News. May 2, 2014. Archived from the original on September 17, 2020. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
  5. 1 2 "Ontario Election Seemingly On Way As NDP Won't Support Budget". Huffington Post. May 2, 2014. Archived from the original on May 2, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.
  6. ↑ "Sexuality a 'non-issue' during Wynne's election campaign: expert". National Post. The Canadian Press. June 14, 2014. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  7. ↑ Tepper, Sean (June 13, 2014). "Ontario takes pride that gay premier's win taken in stride". Globe and Mail . Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Energy Minister Chris Bentley to resign his seat". Toronto Star. February 8, 2013. Archived from the original on February 11, 2013. Retrieved February 11, 2013.
  9. ↑ "Ontario byelections: NDP wins 2, PCs take 1 seat". CBC News. August 1, 2013. Archived from the original on August 2, 2013. Retrieved August 1, 2013.
  10. ↑ Criger, Erin (June 12, 2013). "Dalton McGuinty officially resigns as MPP". City News. Archived from the original on June 7, 2015. Retrieved June 13, 2013.
  11. ↑ "Toronto MPP Margarett Best resigns from legislature". CBC News. June 27, 2013. Archived from the original on March 23, 2022. Retrieved June 29, 2013.
  12. ↑ "Liberal cabinet minister Laurel Broten quits". CBC News. June 23, 2013. Archived from the original on June 24, 2013. Retrieved June 24, 2013.
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  14. ↑ "NDP takes Niagara, Tories keep Thornhill in Ontario byelections". CBC News. February 13, 2014. Archived from the original on February 23, 2014. Retrieved February 14, 2014.
  15. ↑ "Former PC finance critic Peter Shurman resigns as MPP". The Canadian Press. December 10, 2013. Archived from the original on March 23, 2022. Retrieved December 10, 2013.
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  18. ↑ "Horwath makes her budget demands". Toronto Sun. April 10, 2012. Archived from the original on November 12, 2014. Retrieved April 12, 2012.
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  20. ↑ "Summer election avoided as Ontario budget bill passes". MetroNews. June 20, 2012. Archived from the original on January 15, 2013.
  21. ↑ Morrow, Howlett, Adrian, Karen (October 15, 2012). "Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty resigns". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on April 20, 2017. Retrieved October 15, 2012.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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  24. ↑ "Ontario election called for June 12 as Kathleen Wynne's Liberals lose support of NDP | National Post". News.nationalpost.com. May 2, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
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  33. ↑ "MPP Frank Klees won't seek re-election". Toronto Star. January 21, 2014. Archived from the original on January 22, 2014. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
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  58. 1 2 Ontario parties' transit plans reveal politics and paralysis Archived 2014-06-08 at the Wayback Machine . CBC. 2014-05-28
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