2018 Ontario general election

Last updated

2018 Ontario general election
Flag of Ontario.svg
←  2014 June 7, 2018 (2018-06-07) 2022  →
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout56.67% (Increase2.svg5.38pp) [1]
 First partySecond party
  Douglas Robert Ford 2018.jpg Andrea Horwath (cropped).jpg
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre
Last election28 seats, 31.25%21 seats, 23.75%
Seats before2718
Seats won7640
Seat changeIncrease2.svg49Increase2.svg22
Popular vote2,326,6321,929,649
Percentage40.50%33.59%
SwingIncrease2.svg9.25pp Increase2.svg9.84pp
 Third partyFourth party
  Hon Kathleen Wynne MPP Premier of Ontario (cropped2).jpg Mike Schreiner 4431 (37439753570) (cropped2).jpg
Leader Kathleen Wynne Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since January 26, 2013 May 16, 2009
Leader's seat Don Valley West Guelph
Last election58 seats, 38.65%0 seats, 4.84%
Seats before550
Seats won71
Seat changeDecrease2.svg48Increase2.svg1
Popular vote1,124,218264,487
Percentage19.57%4.60%
SwingDecrease2.svg19.08pp Decrease2.svg0.24pp
Ontario general election 2018 - Results by Riding.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

Premier after election

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

The 2018 Ontario general election was held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the 42nd Parliament of Ontario. [2] The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, led by Doug Ford, won 76 of the 124 seats in the legislature and formed a majority government. The Ontario New Democratic Party, led by Andrea Horwath, formed the Official Opposition. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne, lost official party status in recording both the worst result in the party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in Ontario. The Green Party of Ontario won a seat for the first time in their history, while the Trillium Party of Ontario lost its single seat gained by a floor-crossing during the 41st Parliament.

Contents

Background

Redistribution of seats

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 [3] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, [4] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. [5] [6] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. [7]

The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Post columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. [8]

In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election. [9]

Change of fixed election date

Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario's power to call an election earlier. [10] As the current government had a majority, the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days. [11]

To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", [2] and it came into effect in December 2016. [12]

Prelude to campaign

The Ontario Liberal Party attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their first election since 1999, and the Ontario New Democratic Party attempted to win their second election (having previously won in 1990). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes.

The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions". [13] [14] In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens [15] and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election. [16]

According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare, which the Liberal platform promised. [17]

In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025. [18] PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree". [19]

Mood of the voters

According to Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for change—such desire being more driven by emotion than by ideology—and one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for. [20] The Huffington Post reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose. [21]

In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a gap analysis on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:

Voter gap analysis by party (February 2018) [22]
LiberalPCNDPHighlights
64%
6%
6%
10%
13%
51%
7%
6%
10%
26%
61%
9%
13%
6%
11%
  • PCs had the lowest proportion of respondents (51%) not willing to vote for them at all, while the Liberals had the highest such proportion (64%)
  • At 13%, the Liberals' "hard support" was only half that for the PCs
  • For PCs, the strength of "hard support" increases with age, and older demographics tend to be more reliable voters
  • Conversely, such support for the Liberals and NDP significantly declines with age, with almost ¾ of those aged 55+ not willing to vote for them at all

  = Not voting for party; not considered
  = Not voting for party; shared consideration
  = Not voting for party; exclusive consideration
  = Will vote for party; others considered
  = Will vote for party; no others considered

Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)

Date
June 12, 2014The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor. [23]
July 2, 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives. [24] Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader. [25]
July 24, 2014The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.
May 9, 2015 Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. [26]
September 24, 2015 Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury by-election scandal. [27]
November 1, 2016 Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection. [28] Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign. [29]
January 24, 2018 CTV News reports that Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations. [30]
January 25, 2018Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. [31] [32]
January 26, 2018Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader. [33]
March 10, 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election. [34] Fedeli continues as Leader of the Opposition for legislative purposes until the election due to Ford not having a seat in the Legislature. [35]
April 11, 2018First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance. [36]
April 16, 2018The Ontario NDP release their full election platform. [37]
May 7, 2018First televised debate hosted by CityNews: Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and Wynne [38]
May 9, 2018Electoral Writ issued. [39]
May 11, 2018Leaders' debate in Parry Sound. [40]
May 17, 2018Candidate nominations close at 2 PM local time. [41]
May 26, 2018 Advance voting starts at voting locations and returning offices. [42] [43]
May 27, 2018Second televised debate, moderated by Steve Paikin and Farah Nasser, held at the Canadian Broadcasting Centre in Toronto and aired on CBC, CTV, Global, TVO, CPAC, CHCH and other outlets. Attended by Wynne, Ford, and Horwath. [44]
May 30, 2018Advance voting ends at advance voting locations. [42]
June 1, 2018Advance voting ends at returning offices. [42]
June 2, 2018Premier Wynne concedes that the Liberals will not win the election. [45] [46]
June 6, 2018Special ballot voting at returning office or through home visit ends at 6:00 PM EST. [42]
June 7, 2018Election day. Fixed-date of the 2018 provincial election.

Campaign period

Issues

2018 Ontario election – issues and respective party platforms [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52]
IssueLiberalPCNDP
Budget
  • Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024–25
  • Conduct a value-for-money audit of the government's spending
  • Conduct an independent commission of inquiry into the previous government's spending
  • Centralize government purchasing
  • Increase the Risk Management Program limit by $50 million annually
  • Eliminate the Jobs and Prosperity fund
  • There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5 billion and $2 billion.
Child care
  • Publicly-funded child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income
  • Fund a sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75% of their child-care costs
  • Income-based scale for child care, providing publicly-funded child care for families earning under $40,000 annually and public funding to reduce the cost of childcare to an average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000
Education
  • Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12
  • $3 billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions
  • $16 billion in spending over 10 years on infrastructure and repairs at Ontario's schools
  • Cap kindergarten class sizes at 26 students
  • Abolish standardized EQAO testing
  • Give OSAP-qualified students non-repayable grants instead of loans
  • Remove interest from existing student loans and apply interest that has already been paid to the loan principal
Environment
  • Hire more conservation officers
  • Create an emissions-reduction fund to subsidize new technologies that reduce emissions
  • Increase funding for cleaning up garbage
  • Divert at least 25% of cap-and-trade revenue to help northern, rural and low-income Ontarians adapt to a lower-carbon lifestyle
  • Spend $50 million on a home-efficiency retrofit program
Healthcare
  • Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Create a publicly-funded universal pharmacare program for seniors
  • Hire 400 new mental health workers in schools
  • Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Increase funding for mental health
  • Increase funding for autism treatment by $125 million per year
  • Create a publicly-funded universal pharmacare program for everyone that covers approximately 125 medications
  • Create 40,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Create 2,000 new hospital beds
  • Hire 4,500 new nurses
Electricity
  • Standing by its 2017 plan to defer rate increases through current borrowing
  • Will proceed to sell the Province's remaining 60% interest in Hydro One
  • Cut rates by 12%, over and above the Liberals' current 25% reduction
  • Fire the CEO and Board of Hydro One
  • Cancel energy contracts that are in the pre-construction stage
Regulation
  • Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019
  • End geographic price variations in car insurance rates
  • Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019
  • Allow illegal immigrants to access all government services and do not enforce federal immigration laws against them
  • Impose price controls on gasoline
Taxation
  • Proceed with last budget's simplification of rate structure for personal income tax
  • Raise taxes on cigarettes by $4 per carton
  • Increase taxes on people making over $95,000 per year
  • Reduce middle-class income tax rates by 20%
  • Eliminate income tax entirely for minimum-wage earners
  • Repeal the present cap and trade program
  • Challenge the federal carbon tax in court
  • Reduce the small business income tax rate by 8.7%
  • Reduce gasoline taxes by 10¢ per litre
  • Reduce diesel taxes by 10.3¢ per litre
  • Reduce the corporate income tax rate from 11.5% to 10.5%
  • Reduce aviation fuel taxes for Northern Ontario flights
  • Exempt the Royal Canadian Legion from being charged property tax
  • Raise corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 13%
  • Raise income taxes on people earning over $220,000 by 1%
  • Raise income taxes on people earning over $300,000 by 2%
Transportation
  • Fund $79 billion for various public-transit projects over 14 years
  • Build a Toronto-to-Windsor high-speed rail line
  • Fund an expansion of light rail O-Train in Ottawa
  • $5 billion in extra funding for new subways in Toronto
  • Upload ownership and construction of subway lines from the municipal government to the provincial government
  • Build the Relief Line subway line
  • Build the Yonge Extension subway line
  • Build future crosstown expansions underground
  • Expand all-day two-way GO service Bowmanville and Kitchener
  • Finish construction of the Niagara GO Expansion
  • Restore operations of the Northlander in Northern Ontario
  • Fund an expansion of light rail O-Train in Ottawa
  • Ensure that the Scarborough Subway Extension to the Scarborough Town Centre will have three stops
  • Build the Sheppard Loop with the Scarborough Subway Extension

Party slogans

PartyEnglishFrenchTranslation of French (unofficial)
█  Liberal "Care over cuts" [54]
█  PC "For the People" [55]
█  New Democratic "Change for the better" [56] "Changeons pour le mieux" [57] Let's change for the better
█  Green "People Powered Change" [58]
█  Libertarian "The Party of Choice" [59]

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal PC NDP Green No endorsement
Media
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations
  • Ontario Convenience Stores Association [83]
  • Ottawa Police Association [84]
  • United Steelworkers Local 2251 [85]

Candidates

Candidate nominations

In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in Ottawa West—Nepean and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings. [90] Both candidates denied these claims. [91] The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation. [92]

In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa—Vanier. Evans was the first openly transgender candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election. [93] [94]

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral DistrictIncumbent at dissolution and subsequent nomineeNew MPP
Brant (now Brantford—Brant)  Dave Levac [95] Ruby Toor  Will Bouma
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell   Grant Crack [96] Pierre Leroux  Amanda Simard
Guelph   Liz Sandals [97] Sly Castaldi  Mike Schreiner
Kenora—Rainy River   Sarah Campbell [98] Glen Archer  Greg Rickford
Kitchener—Conestoga   Michael Harris [99] –  Mike Harris Jr.
London North Centre   Deb Matthews [97] Kate Graham  Terence Kernaghan
Markham—Unionville   Michael Chan [96] Amanda Yeung Collucci  Billy Pang
Parkdale—High Park   Cheri DiNovo [100] Bhutila Karpoche  Bhutila Karpoche
Mississauga—Erindale   Harinder Takhar [101] Riding dissolved
Pickering—Scarborough East   Tracy MacCharles [96] Riding dissolved
Scarborough Centre   Brad Duguid [102] Mazhar Shafiq  Christina Mitas
Simcoe North   Patrick Brown [103] –  Jill Dunlop
Welland (now Niagara Centre)  Cindy Forster [104] [105] Jeff Burch  Jeff Burch
York Centre   Monte Kwinter [106] Ramon Estaris  Roman Baber
York—Simcoe   Julia Munro [107] Caroline Mulroney  Caroline Mulroney
York West (now Humber River—Black Creek)  Mario Sergio [108] Deanna Sgro  Tom Rakocevic

Results

↓
764071
Progressive ConservativeNew DemocraticLiberalG

Elections Ontario used electronic vote tabulator machines from Dominion Voting Systems for counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of CA$32,000,000. [109] [110] This election was the first time Ontario used vote counting machines for a provincial election, although tabulators have been used in Ontario civic elections for more than 20 years, and also in a 2016 by-election in Whitby-Oshawa. The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator. [110]

PartyVotesSeats
Progressive Conservative 2,326,632
40.50%
Increase2.svg 9.25pp
76 / 124 (61%)
New Democratic 1,929,649
33.59%
Increase2.svg 9.84pp
40 / 124 (32%)
Liberal 1,124,218
19.57%
Decrease2.svg 19.08pp
7 / 124 (6%)
Green 264,487
4.60%
Decrease2.svg 0.24pp
1 / 124 (0.8%)
Popular vote
PC
 
40.50%
New Democratic
 
33.59%
Liberal
 
19.57%
Green
 
4.60%
Others
 
1.74%
Seat summary
PC
 
61.29%
New Democratic
 
32.26%
Liberal
 
5.65%
Green
 
0.81%

Synopsis of results

Results by riding - 2018 Ontario general election [a 1]
RidingWinning partyTurnout
[a 2] 		Votes [a 3]
PartyVotesShareMargin
#		Margin
%		 PC NDP Lib Green IndOtherTotal
 
Ajax PC19,07839.1%3,9488.1%54.6%19,07815,13012,6071,22422060148,860
Algoma—Manitoulin NDP17,10558.6%9,96234.1%53.1%7,14317,1052,3651,025–1,57329,211
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC25,21456.0%15,49634.4%55.4%25,2149,7188,1161,195–75544,998
Barrie—Innisfil PC22,12150.0%9,46021.4%54.3%22,12112,6615,5433,190–75744,272
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC20,44544.7%7,55416.5%57.0%20,44512,8916,2105,35433545445,689
Bay of Quinte PC24,22448.0%8,16116.2%56.5%24,22416,0637,5111,73037953550,442
Beaches—East York NDP24,06448.2%10,58421.2%61.2%9,20224,06413,4802,12816187949,914
Brampton Centre NDP12,89238.4%890.3%50.3%12,80312,8925,8251,053–1,02533,598
Brampton East NDP18,06246.9%5,16613.4%51.2%12,89618,0626,398523–61638,495
Brampton North NDP14,87737.5%4971.3%51.7%14,38014,8778,4101,366–59139,624
Brampton South PC15,65241.0%2,7337.2%51.6%15,65212,9197,2121,472–91438,169
Brampton West PC14,95139.4%4901.3%49.9%14,95114,4617,013999–53737,961
Brantford—Brant PC24,43739.4%6351.1%47.7%24,43723,8025,5532,741–1,65558,188
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC26,87454.7%15,03730.6%57.2%26,87411,8376,0412,927–1,44949,129
Burlington PC25,50440.4%7,45111.8%58.4%25,50418,05315,5152,828–1,15563,055
Cambridge PC17,79337.0%2,1544.5%63.4%17,79315,63911,1913,018–49048,131
Carleton PC25,79851.3%14,49028.8%55.2%25,79811,3089,7681,985911,30850,258
Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC24,07851.9%7,52016.2%62.0%24,07816,5583,7361,643358–46,373
Davenport NDP27,61360.3%19,05541.6%56.8%7,37027,6138,5581,6246958545,819
Don Valley East Lib13,01235.9%1,0282.8%55.2%11,9849,93713,012917–36736,217
Don Valley North PC18,04644.4%5,48913.5%53.8%18,0468,47612,5571,039–48940,607
Don Valley West Lib17,80238.9%1810.4%61.3%17,6218,62017,8021,268–46645,777
Dufferin—Caledon PC29,70453.1%18,32332.7%56.6%29,70411,3816,9727,011–88855,956
Durham PC28,57547.0%9,32215.3%59.9%28,57519,25310,2372,360–38260,807
Eglinton—Lawrence PC19,99940.4%9571.9%60.1%19,9998,98519,0421,190–31149,527
Elgin—Middlesex—London PC29,26455.5%12,34123.4%59.4%29,26416,9233,8572,029–69452,767
Essex NDP26,13447.9%2,7115.0%56.1%23,42326,1343,0261,920––54,503
Etobicoke Centre PC24,43243.0%4,7248.3%61.9%24,43210,31119,7081,32916288356,825
Etobicoke—Lakeshore PC22,62638.3%3,2255.5%58.6%22,62619,40114,3052,138–52358,993
Etobicoke North PC19,05552.5%9,84527.1%50.6%19,0559,2106,6011,026–41436,306
Flamborough—Glanbrook PC22,45443.5%4,8249.4%60.6%22,45417,6307,9672,307–1,23051,588
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PC19,95241.0%4,5439.3%55.4%19,95210,61015,4091,427–1,29248,690
Guelph Grn29,08245.0%14,99823.4%61.1%14,08413,9296,53729,082–94564,577
Haldimand—Norfolk PC28,88957.1%15,28030.2%59.2%28,88913,6094,6562,095–1,34450,593
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC32,40656.7%17,26430.2%59.7%32,40615,1425,6552,551–1,38957,143
Hamilton Centre NDP23,86665.2%18,13649.6%48.9%5,73023,8663,9822,10215673936,575
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP22,51851.1%9,83422.3%53.1%12,68422,5185,3201,884–1,61444,020
Hamilton Mountain NDP24,40654.6%11,51525.8%56.2%12,89124,4064,1342,300–98644,717
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP23,92143.2%6,73212.2%62.3%17,18923,92110,9602,30224777155,390
Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC22,37450.2%7,93317.8%59.1%22,37414,4415,1801,924–60244,521
Humber River—Black Creek NDP11,57337.4%2,2067.1%47.3%9,36711,5738,642485–86230,929
Huron—Bruce PC27,64652.4%12,32023.3%63.5%27,64615,3267,3561,804–67052,802
Kanata—Carleton PC23,08943.2%7,49714.0%62.3%23,08915,5929,0902,827–2,85553,453
Kenora—Rainy River PC9,74848.6%2,25511.2%54.1%9,7487,4932,123707––20,071
Kiiwetinoong NDP3,23249.9%1,46722.7%45.8%1,7653,232983406–916,477
King—Vaughan PC29,13656.6%17,12433.3%55.5%29,1367,92112,0121,754–63851,461
Kingston and the Islands NDP21,78839.2%6,47611.6%57.3%14,51221,78815,3123,574–45855,644
Kitchener Centre NDP20,51243.4%7,43215.7%58.3%13,08020,5129,4993,234–95547,280
Kitchener—Conestoga PC17,00539.6%6861.6%59.9%17,00516,3196,0352,853–76242,974
Kitchener South—Hespeler PC16,51138.9%7701.8%55.8%16,51115,7416,3353,19827542342,483
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC27,90658.3%11,10822.0%60.8%27,90616,8003,1431,660–91550,424
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC26,19452.0%10,85521.6%62.0%26,19415,3395,3592,41044060150,343
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC30,00261.3%20,31441.5%60.2%30,0029,6886,5432,347–38948,969
London—Fanshawe NDP25,27255.7%11,75325.9%49.6%13,51925,2723,7972,050–75345,391
London North Centre NDP25,75747.6%9,05616.7%54.9%16,70125,7578,5012,493–66154,113
London West NDP32,64455.3%15,51126.3%60.6%17,13332,6445,8472,211–1,16158,996
Markham—Stouffville PC25,91248.1%11,90522.1%58.6%25,91210,99714,0072,153–77753,846
Markham—Thornhill PC18,94350.4%9,78326.0%52.2%18,9438,0109,160859–57637,548
Markham—Unionville PC29,30562.4%20,84944.4%54.7%29,3057,7788,456996–40546,940
Milton PC18,24941.7%5,18511.8%56.1%18,2499,74013,0642,200–53643,789
Mississauga Centre PC17,86040.9%5,81413.3%49.8%17,86012,04611,1021,149–1,55343,710
Mississauga East—Cooksville PC17,86241.1%4,73910.9%51.5%17,8629,87113,1231,498–1,05143,405
Mississauga—Erin Mills PC19,63141.6%6,61014.0%55.1%19,63113,02111,9651,296–1,26547,178
Mississauga—Lakeshore PC22,52042.3%3,88414.0%59.3%22,5209,73518,6361,572–73653,199
Mississauga—Malton PC14,71239.1%2,3616.3%48.4%14,71212,3517,8136741,18787437,611
Mississauga—Streetsville PC20,87943.5%8,48617.7%55.5%20,87912,39312,3441,349–99947,964
Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP4,82751.8%2,03221.8%54.0%2,7954,8271,332167–2039,324
Nepean PC23,89945.1%8,78916.6%58.7%23,89915,11010,3832,739–82652,957
Newmarket—Aurora PC24,81347.7%12,40823.9%59.0%24,81312,40511,8401,85944764952,013
Niagara Centre NDP21,61844.2%3,2856.7%56.1%18,33321,6185,7791,8032171,12448,874
Niagara Falls NDP30,16150.8%9,03515.2%54.6%21,12630,1615,5542,057–48359,381
Niagara West PC24,39452.8%10,62523.0%63.3%24,39413,7694,8592,590–57846,190
Nickel Belt NDP23,15763.5%15,13941.5%55.4%8,01823,1573,1821,137–97336,467
Nipissing PC17,59849.9%4,60413.1%58.2%17,59812,9942,794997–86035,243
Northumberland—Peterborough South PC27,38645.3%12,58220.8%64.6%27,38614,80414,6032,740–89060,423
Oakville PC24,83743.7%4,5107.9%62.5%24,8379,42420,3271,986–29756,871
Oakville North—Burlington PC25,69146.4%12,19522.0%60.2%25,69113,49613,4872,052–62555,351
Orléans Lib24,97239.0%2,4633.8%62.8%22,50914,03324,9721,60343539863,950
Oshawa NDP24,30144.9%1,7073.2%54.6%22,59424,3014,2781,957–1,01354,143
Ottawa Centre NDP29,67546.1%8,56413.3%61.2%10,32729,67521,1112,266–1,02464,403
Ottawa South Lib20,77339.6%5,45410.4%56.9%15,31914,25020,7731,618–45652,416
Ottawa—Vanier Lib20,55542.9%6,32313.2%51.5%10,25214,23220,5551,955–96447,958
Ottawa West—Nepean PC16,59032.8%1750.3%57.0%16,59016,41514,8101,937–79350,545
Oxford PC29,15255.7%13,23525.3%59.2%29,15215,9173,6202,2543351,03352,311
Parkdale—High Park NDP32,40759.4%22,58641.4%62.4%9,82132,4079,2712,544–50654,549
Parry Sound—Muskoka PC22,66248.1%12,27726.0%59.2%22,66210,3854,0719,43821936847,143
Perth—Wellington PC23,73650.7%9,35120.0%60.3%23,73614,3855,0622,746–91446,843
Peterborough—Kawartha PC22,90437.7%2,3863.9%62.7%22,90420,51814,9462,024–39860,790
Pickering—Uxbridge PC22,44742.2%5,41410.2%58.9%22,44717,03310,8512,10537338453,193
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC33,35069.2%25,28452.5%59.7%33,3508,0664,7011,436–64648,199
Richmond Hill PC22,22451.2%10,11623.3%52.2%22,2247,49012,1081,248–30143,371
St. Catharines NDP18,91136.6%1,5583.0%58.1%17,35318,91112,6711,923–79251,650
Sarnia—Lambton PC26,81152.7%7,81615.4%60.9%26,81118,9952,2461,8567185150,830
Sault Ste. Marie PC13,49842.0%4141.3%54.5%13,49813,0843,1991,044–1,29232,117
Scarborough—Agincourt PC18,58250.4%8,15322.1%51.3%18,5826,43410,42963518960236,871
Scarborough Centre PC15,26638.4%2,0195.1%53.2%15,26613,2478,791919–1,48139,704
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib11,97233.3%740.2%52.9%11,8989,91711,972878661,17435,905
Scarborough North PC17,41351.0%9,09326.7%50.8%17,4138,3207,519543–31834,113
Scarborough—Rouge Park PC16,22438.6%9632.3%55.5%16,22415,2618,7851,014–73142,015
Scarborough Southwest NDP19,83545.7%6,27014.4%56.0%13,56519,8358,2281,174–64143,443
Simcoe—Grey PC34,09455.9%20,65033.9%57.1%34,09413,4448,7804,192–45360,963
Simcoe North PC25,23646.9%10,15818.9%58.9%25,23615,0789,5233,632–32053,789
Spadina—Fort York NDP24,67749.6%12,90726.0%53.4%10,83424,67711,7701,815–63549,731
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC26,78061.5%17,36439.9%54.1%26,7809,4165,3861,596–36043,538
Sudbury NDP17,38648.1%8,98124.8%54.2%8,40517,3868,1081,5048268236,167
Thornhill PC28,88961.1%19,75541.8%56.2%28,8899,1346,9851,043–1,20847,259
Thunder Bay—Atikokan NDP11,79336.3%810.3%54.7%7,55511,79311,712880–58532,525
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib11,97339.9%8132.7%53.8%5,39511,16011,973838–66930,035
Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP16,80661.2%10,64638.8%53.1%6,16016,8062,476723–1,29627,461
Timmins NDP8,97857.4%4,34427.8%48.1%4,6348,9781,378273–37015,633
Toronto Centre NDP23,68853.7%11,70226.5%54.3%6,23423,68811,9861,377–86344,148
Toronto—Danforth NDP32,93864.2%24,80748.4%61.6%8,13132,9387,2162,24822850851,269
Toronto—St. Paul's NDP18,84336.0%1,3452.6%60.7%13,78018,84317,4981,690–59152,402
University—Rosedale NDP24,53749.7%13,63927.6%56.6%10,43124,53710,8982,65222067449,412
Vaughan—Woodbridge PC21,68750.5%7,94518.5%56.0%21,6876,25413,742972–29142,946
Waterloo NDP27,31550.5%10,34219.1%61.8%16,97327,3156,5772,613–56654,044
Wellington—Halton Hills PC31,65954.0%17,57230.0%61.1%31,65914,0877,4925,066–32058,624
Whitby PC26,47145.8%5,3139.2%60.3%26,47121,1587,4411,958–76857,796
Willowdale PC17,73243.6%6,91717.0%50.5%17,73210,48110,81593223345340,646
Windsor—Tecumseh NDP25,22158.4%13,54431.4%47.8%11,67725,2213,5131,909863–43,183
Windsor West NDP20,27652.1%9,20323.7%43.3%11,07320,2765,7221,393–43538,899
York Centre PC18,43450.1%9,81726.7%52.9%18,4348,6177,865843–1,00236,761
York—Simcoe PC26,05057.3%15,39533.8%54.9%26,05010,6556,1822,195–40945,491
York South—Weston NDP13,45536.1%1,1653.1%49.2%12,29013,45510,379946–22837,298
  1. ↑ "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate: 2018 General Election". elections.on.ca. Archived from the original on December 3, 2019. Retrieved December 3, 2019.; "Statistical Summary by Electoral District: 2018 General Election". elections.on.ca. Archived from the original on December 3, 2019. Retrieved December 3, 2019.
  2. ↑ including spoilt ballots
  3. ↑ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Detailed results and analysis

[111] [112] [113]

Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Ontario (2018)
Political partyParty leaderMPPsVotes
Candidates 2014 Dissol. 2018±#%± (pp)
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 12428277648Increase2.svg2,326,52340.19%9.08Increase2.svg
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 12421184019Increase2.svg1,929,96633.34%9.68Increase2.svg
Liberal Kathleen Wynne 1245855751Decrease2.svg1,124,34619.42%19.10Decrease2.svg
Green Mike Schreiner 124––11Increase2.svg264,5194.57%0.31Decrease2.svg
Libertarian Allen Small117––––42,8220.74%0.04Decrease2.svg
None of the Above Greg Vezina42––––16,1460.28%0.20Increase2.svg
  Independents and no affiliation32–2––8,2260.14%0.06Increase2.svg
Trillium Bob Yaciuk26–1––8,0910.14%0.13Increase2.svg
Northern Ontario Trevor Holliday10––––5,9120.10%0.08Increase2.svg
Consensus Ontario Brad Harness10––––2,6820.05%New
Freedom Paul McKeever 14––––2,5650.04%0.20Decrease2.svg
Ontario Party Jason Tysick5––––2,3160.04%New
Moderate Yuri Duboisky16––––2,1990.04%0.03Increase2.svg
Communist Dave McKee12––––1,4710.03%0.01Decrease2.svg
Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar5––––1,2390.02%0.01Decrease2.svg
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Queenie Yu3––––1,0780.02%New
Ontario Alliance Joshua E. Eriksen3––––8020.01%New
New People's Choice PartyDaryl Christoff3––––6340.01%New
Special Needs Hilton Milan5––––6310.01%Steady2.svg
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 6––––6280.01%0.01Decrease2.svg
Confederation of Regions vacant2––––3860.01%Steady2.svg
Stop Climate ChangeKen Ranney2––––3400.01%New
Canadian Economic PartyPatrick Knight2––––3210.01%New
Go Vegan Paul Figueiras2––––256–0.02Decrease2.svg
Cultural Action PartyArthur Smitherman3––––215–New
Multicultural Party of OntarioWasyl Luczkiw2––––191–New
Party of Objective Truth Derrick Matthews2––––176–New
Pauper John Turmel 2––––112–Steady2.svg
Social Reform PartyAbu Alam2––––67–New
 Vacant4
Blank and invalid ballots61,4261.06
Total8251071071245,806,286100.00%
Registered voters / turnout10,246,06656.67%5.38Increase2.svg


Incumbents MPPs who lost their seats [114]

38 incumbent Liberal MPPs lost their re-election races, as well as a one Trillium party MPP.

ConstituencyPartyNameYear first electedSeat held by party sinceDefeated byParty
Ottawa Centre █  Liberal Yasir Naqvi 2007 1995 Joel Harden █  New Democratic
Ottawa West-Nepean █  Liberal Bob Chiarelli 2010 b.e. 2003 Jeremy Roberts █  Progressive Conservative
Kingston and the Islands █  Liberal Sophie Kiwala 2014 1995 Ian Arthur █  New Democratic
Barrie-Innisfil █  Liberal Ann Hogarth ‡ 2014 (new riding) Andrea Khanjin █  Progressive Conservative
Northumberland—Peterborough South █  Liberal Lou Rinaldi ‡ 2014

(previously served from 2003-2011)

(new riding) David Piccini █  Progressive Conservative
Peterborough—Kawartha █  Liberal Jeff Leal 2003 2003 Dave Smith █  Progressive Conservative
Ajax █  Liberal Joe Dickson‡ 2007 (new riding) Rod Phillips █  Progressive Conservative
Durham █  Liberal Granville Anderson 2014 2014 Lindsey Park █  Progressive Conservative
Brampton North █  Liberal Harinder Malhi 2014 (new riding) Kevin Yarde █  New Democratic
Brampton West █  Liberal Vic Dhillon 2003 2007 (riding created) Amarjot Sandhu █  Progressive Conservative
Mississauga East—Cooksville █  Liberal Dipika Damerla 2011 2007 (riding created) Kaleed Rasheed █  Progressive Conservative
Mississauga—Lakeshore █  Liberal Charles Sousa 2007 2007 Rudy Cuzetto █  Progressive Conservative
Mississauga—Malton █  Liberal Amrit Mangat 2007 (new riding) Deepak Anand █  Progressive Conservative
Mississauga—Streetsville █  Liberal Bob Delaney 2003 2007 (riding created) Nina Tangri █  Progressive Conservative
Markham—Stouffville █  Liberal Helena Jaczek 2007 (new riding) Paul Calandra █  Progressive Conservative
Newmarket—Aurora █  Liberal Chris Ballard 2014 2014 Christine Elliott █  Progressive Conservative
Richmond Hill █  Liberal Reza Moridi 2007 2007 (riding created) Daisy Wai █  Progressive Conservative
Vaughan—Woodbridge █  Liberal Steven Del Duca 2012 b.e.(new riding) Michael Tibollo █  Progressive Conservative
Scarborough—Agincourt █  Liberal Soo Wong 2011 1987 (riding created) Aris Babikian █  Progressive Conservative
Scarborough Southwest █  Liberal Lorenzo Berardinetti 2003 2003 Doly Begum █  New Democratic
Eglinton—Lawrence █  Liberal Michael Colle 1995 1999 (riding created) Robin Martin █  Progressive Conservative
Willowdale █  Liberal David Zimmer 2003 2003 Stan Cho █  Progressive Conservative
Beaches—East York █  Liberal Arthur Potts 2014 2014 Rima Berns-McGown █  New Democratic
Davenport █  Liberal Cristina Martins 2014 2014 Marit Stiles █  New Democratic
Spadina—Fort York █  Liberal Han Dong 2014 (new riding) Chris Glover █  New Democratic
Etobicoke Centre █  Liberal Yvan Baker 2014 2003 Kinga Surma █  Progressive Conservative
Etobicoke—Lakeshore █  Liberal Peter Milczyn 2014 2014 Christine Hogarth █  Progressive Conservative
Etobicoke North █  Liberal Shafiq Qaadri 2003 2003 Doug Ford █  Progressive Conservative
York South—Weston █  Liberal Laura Albanese 2007 2007 Faisal Hassan █  New Democratic
Burlington █  Liberal Eleanor McMahon 2014 2014 Jane McKenna █  Progressive Conservative
Milton █  Liberal Indira Naidoo-Harris 2014 (new riding) Parm Gill █  Progressive Conservative
Oakville █  Liberal Kevin Flynn 2003 2003 Stephen Crawford █  Progressive Conservative
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas █  Liberal Ted McMeekin 2000 b.e.(new riding) Sandy Shaw █  New Democratic
St. Catharines █  Liberal Jim Bradley 1977 1977 Jennie Stevens █  New Democratic
Cambridge █  Liberal Kathryn McGarry 2014 2014 Belinda Karahalios █  Progressive Conservative
Kitchener Centre █  Liberal Daiene Vernile 2014 2003 Laura Mae Lindo █  New Democratic
Sudbury █  Liberal Glenn Thibeault 2015 b.e.2015 b.e. Jamie West █  New Democratic
Thunder Bay—Atikokan █  Liberal Bill Mauro 2003 1999 (riding created) Judith Monteith-Farrell █  New Democratic
Kanata—Carleton █  Trillium Jack MacLaren 2011 (as a PC)2017 (floor crossing) Merrilee Fullerton █  Progressive Conservative
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results [115]
PartiesSeats
█  Progressive Conservative █  New Democratic 90
█  Progressive Conservative █  Liberal 22
█  Progressive Conservative █  Green 1
█  New Democratic █  Liberal 11
Total124
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party [115]
Parties1st2nd3rd4th5thTotal
█  Progressive Conservative 763711124
█  New Democratic 406123124
█  Liberal 726883124
█  Green 121174124
█  Libertarian 17778
█  None of the Above 2020
█  Northern Ontario 21012
█  Independent 11011
█  Trillium 88
█  Ontario Party 55

Regional analysis

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario – seats won by region (2018)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
Progressive Conservative 11216101194476
New Democratic 1147 226840
Liberal 3   3  17
Green      1  1
Total2525131016121013124

Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests

Top 10 marginal 2-way contests (2018) [115]
Riding1st2nd1st vs 2nd
Scarborough—Guildwood 33.3%33.1%0.2%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 36.2%36.0%0.2%
Brampton Centre 38.4%38.1%0.3%
Ottawa West—Nepean 32.8%32.5%0.3%
Don Valley West 38.9%38.5%0.4%
Brantford—Brant 42.0%40.9%1.1%
Brampton North 37.5%36.3%1.2%
Sault Ste. Marie 42.0%40.7%1.3%
Brampton West 39.4%38.1%1.3%
Kitchener—Conestoga 39.6%38.0%1.6%
Top 10 marginal 3-way contests (2018) [115]
Riding1st2nd3rd1st vs 3rd
Ottawa West—Nepean 32.8%32.5%29.3%3.5%
Scarborough—Guildwood 33.3%33.1%27.6%5.7%
York South—Weston 36.1%33.0%27.8%8.3%
Don Valley East 35.9%33.1%27.4%8.5%
Humber River—Black Creek 37.4%30.3%27.9%9.5%
Toronto—St. Paul's 36.0%33.4%26.3%9.7%
St. Catharines 36.6%33.6%24.5%12.1%
Ottawa South 39.6%29.2%27.2%12.4%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 36.2%36.0%23.2%13.0%
Kingston and the Islands 39.2%27.5%26.1%13.1%

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

RidingPartyCandidatesVotesPlaced
Algoma—Manitoulin █  N.Ont. Heritage Tommy Lee1,3664th
Kanata—Carleton █  Trillium Jack MacLaren 1,9475th
Mississauga—Malton █  Independent Caroline Roach1,1874th
Scarborough Centre █  Libertarian Matthew Dougherty1,0404th
Timiskaming—Cochrane █  N.Ont. Heritage Shawn Poirier1,1054th

Opinion polls

Campaign period

Evolution of voting intentions during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign. Plot generated in R from data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. Opinion polling during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign.svg
Evolution of voting intentions during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign. Plot generated in R from data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

*Includes support for the Green Party

Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings

DateFirmBest Premier ratingsApproval ratings
FordHorwathWynne
FordHorwathWynneApproveDisapproveApproveDisapproveApproveDisapprove
June 6, 2018Research Co. 36%55%54%34%29%64%
June 2, 2018 Forum Research 27%31%17%27%55%41%34%23%65%
June 2, 2018 Abacus Data  25%48%42%20%21%56%
May 31, 2018Research Co.23%28%15%33%56%52%34%27%64%
May 29, 2018 Forum Research 29%30%16%30%53%40%32%23%65%
May 29, 2018 Angus Reid 25%34%15% 
May 29, 2018Innovative Research23%30%14%30%54%48%23%25%59%
May 26, 2018 Abacus Data  27%45%44%15%19%60%
May 23, 2018 Forum Research 30%33%15%32%51%43%26%19%69%
May 23, 2018Innovative Research24%26%19%27%57%46%20%24%61%
May 22, 2018 Leger 23%28%12% 
May 18, 2018 Abacus Data  26%46%42%13%17%60%
May 12, 2018Innovative Research24%26%16%31%52%44%17%21%62%
May 9, 2018 Forum Research  34%49%42%25%20%71%

Major Regional Polls – Toronto

Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link Lib PC NDP Gre OthMargin
of error		Sample
size		Polling methodLead
Campaign ResearchMay 16, 2018 HTML Archived May 21, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 27353252±2.3 pp1,871Online3
Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018)
Mainstreet Research May 7, 2018 PDF 31.136.623.15.93.4±2.19 pp2,000IVR5.5
CityTV Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018) [117]

Pre-campaign period

Ten-poll average of Ontario opinion polls from June 12, 2014, to the last possible date of the next election on June 6, 2018. Each line corresponds to a political party. ON 42nd provincial election polling.png
Ten-poll average of Ontario opinion polls from June 12, 2014, to the last possible date of the next election on June 6, 2018. Each line corresponds to a political party.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">42nd Parliament of Ontario</span> 2018–2022 Canadian provincial legislature

The 42nd Legislative Assembly of Ontario was a legislature of the province of Ontario, Canada. The membership was set by the 2018 Ontario general election and sat for two sessions until it was dissolved on May 3, 2022 in advance of the 2022 Ontario general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Will Bouma</span> Canadian politician

Willem Bouma is a Dutch-Canadian politician, who was elected to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario in the 2018 provincial election. He represents the riding of Brantford—Brant as a member of the Progressive Conservative Party. Before becoming an MPP, Bouma practised optometry and was a member of the Brant County Council.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Ontario general election</span>

The 2022 Ontario general election was held on June 2, 2022, to elect Members of the Provincial Parliament to serve in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario.

The 2023 Ontario New Democratic Party leadership election was held in Toronto, on February 4, 2023. The leadership election was called after ONDP leader Andrea Horwath announced her resignation on June 2, 2022, in her concession speech on the night of the 2022 Ontario general election, in which the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won a second consecutive majority government under Doug Ford.

The 44th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 4, 2026. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election, unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due advice from the Premier of Ontario, a motion of no confidence or the failure of the Assembly to grant supply. Such a dissolution is unlikely as the current government has a majority.

References

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