2024 New Brunswick general election

Last updated
2024 New Brunswick general election
Flag of New Brunswick.svg
  2020 On or before October 21, 2024Next 

49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
25 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Blaine Higgs at COVID-19 announcement (49667487992) (cropped).jpg Susan Holt - Photo by Dimitri Karakostas (cropped).jpg
Leader Blaine Higgs Susan Holt
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since October 22, 2016 August 6, 2022
Leader's seat Quispamsis Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore [lower-alpha 1]
Last election27 seats, 39.34%17 seats, 34.35%
Current seats2816

  David Coon Cropped.jpg Rick DeSaulniers MLA.jpg
Leader David Coon Rick DeSaulniers
Party Green People's Alliance
Leader since September 22, 2012 April 22, 2022
Leader's seat Fredericton South [lower-alpha 2] N/A [lower-alpha 3]
Last election3 seats, 15.24%2 seats, 9.19%
Current seats30

Incumbent Premier

Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative



The 2024 New Brunswick general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2024, according to the Legislative Assembly Act of 2017 which states that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October. [3]

Contents

Background

Defections and de-registration of the People's Alliance

On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives. Austin said that the result of the 2020 provincial election, when the party lost one of its three seats, had prompted him to undertake some “soul-searching”, but that he believed he had changed politics in New Brunswick. [4] Both Austin and Conroy stated that they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government. [5]

Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs expressed excitement about his party's new MLAs, but reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue. The acceptance of MLAs who had expressed anti-bilingual opinions was criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick, an organization promoting the rights of francophones in the province, when their president Alexandre Cédric Doucet said that he was happy to see the Alliance dissolve, but that it was "a sad day" for the Progressive Conservatives. [5]

The Chief Electoral Officer of New Brunswick confirmed that the Peoples Alliance of New Brunswick would be deregistered as a provincial party on March 31, 2022. [6] In April 2022, interim leader Rick DeSaulniers and party announced plans to re-register as a party. [7] Elections New Brunswick confirmed the party was re-registered in May 2022. [8]

Current standings

Standings in the 60th Legislature of New Brunswick
Affiliation Assembly members
2020 election resultsCurrent
Progressive Conservative 2728
Liberal 1716
Green 33
People's Alliance 20
Independent 01
Vacant1
Total members4948
Total seats4949

Summary of seat changes

Changes in seats held (2020–present)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin August 17, 2021 Jake Stewart   PC Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; elected.June 20, 2022 Mike Dawson   PC
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Lisa Harris   Liberal Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; defeated. Réjean Savoie   PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake March 30, 2022 Kris Austin   People's Allnc. Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party.  PC
Miramichi Michelle Conroy   People's Allnc. Changed affiliation.  PC
Fredericton West-Hanwell October 16, 2022 Dominic Cardy   PC Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role.  Independent
Dieppe October 21, 2022 Roger Melanson   Liberal Resigned to head to the private sector.April 24, 2023 Richard Losier   Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur November 27, 2022 Daniel Guitard   Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected. Marco LeBlanc   Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore November 27, 2022 Denis Landry   Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected. Susan Holt   Liberal
Saint John Harbour February 8, 2024 [9] Arlene Dunn   PC Resigned.

Opinion polls

2024 New Brunswick election polls.svg

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link PC Liberal Green PA NDP Margin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
Narrative ResearchFebruary 22, 2024 [p 1] 34401528±4.9 pp400telephone6
Narrative ResearchNovember 27, 2023 [p 2] 354110213±4.9 pp400telephone6
Narrative ResearchAugust 21, 2023 [p 3] 36381618±4.9 pp400telephone2
Narrative ResearchMay 17, 2023 [p 4] 343419210±4.9 pp400telephone0
Narrative ResearchFebruary 25, 2023 [p 5] 37351729±4.6 pp450telephone2
LegerDecember 23, 2022 [p 6] 224015912±4.4 pp500online18
Narrative ResearchNovember 27, 2022 [p 7] 303918210±4.0 pp611telephone9
Narrative ResearchAugust 24, 2022 [p 8] 304114511±4.2 pp525telephone11
Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022)
Angus ReidJune 13, 2022 [p 9] 313614513±6.0 pp247online5
Narrative ResearchMay 19, 2022 [p 10] 34341749±4.0 pp607telephone0
Nanos ResearchApril 11, 2022 [p 11] 36.638.814.21.28.6±4.8 pp423online/telephone2.2
Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022)
Angus ReidMarch 15, 2022 [p 12] 313215139±6.0 pp251online1
Narrative ResearchFebruary 27, 2022 [p 13] 343116511±4.2 pp545telephone3
Angus ReidJanuary 10, 2022 [p 14] 263716108±7.0 pp216online11
MQO ResearchDecember 14, 2021 [p 15] 293616511±4.9 pp400telephone (rolling)7
Narrative ResearchNovember 24, 2021 [p 16] 283814513±3.5 pp800telephone10
StratcomNovember 6, 2021 [p 17] 20.539.817.912.0-±2.8 pp1,184IVR19.3
Angus ReidOctober 3, 2021 [p 18] 3131121213±2.0 pp265online0
Narrative ResearchAugust 17, 2021 [p 19] 332922511±2.0 pp604telephone4
Angus ReidJune 7, 2021 [p 20] 363117124±2.0 pp248online5
Narrative ResearchMay 31, 2021 [p 21] 39281868±3.5 pp800telephone (rolling)11
MQO ResearchMarch 18, 2021 [p 22] 38311756±4.9 pp400telephone (rolling)7
Narrative ResearchFebruary 17, 2021 [p 23] 35322066±3.5 pp800telephone (rolling)3
Narrative ResearchNovember 22, 2020 [p 24] 41282046±3.5 pp800telephone (rolling)13
Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020)
Election 2020 September 14, 2020 HTML 39.334.415.29.21.74.9
Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
LinkMargin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
PC Liberal Green PA NDP

Issues

Candidates

Retiring incumbents

The following sitting MLAs have announced that they would not seek re-election:

Legend

Northern

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
Progressive ConservativesLiberalGreenPANBNDPOther
Restigouche West Gilles LePage [20] Myriam Cormier [21] Gilles LePage
Restigouche East Guy Arseneault [20] Guy Arseneault
Campbellton-Dalhousie
Belle-Baie-Belledune Marco LeBlanc [20] Marco LeBlanc
Restigouche-Chaleur
Bathurst René Legacy [20] Robert Kryszko [21] René Legacy
Bathurst West-Beresford
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit Susan Holt #
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Caraquet Isabelle Thériault [20] Isabelle Thériault
Shippagan-Les-Îles Eric Mallet [20] Eric Mallet
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Tracadie Keith Chiasson [20] Serge Brideau [21] Keith Chiasson
Tracadie-Sheila

Miramichi

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
Progressive ConservativesLiberalGreenPANBNDPOther
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Réjean Savoie [22] Sam Johnston [23] Réjean Savoie
Miramichi East Michelle Conroy [24] Veronique Arsenault [25] Michelle Conroy
Miramichi
Miramichi West Mike Dawson [26] Mark Hambrook [27] Mike Dawson
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin

Southeastern

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
Progressive ConservativesLiberalGreenPANBNDPOther
Kent North Carl Cosby [28] Kevin Arseneau [21] Kevin Arseneau
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent Benoît Bourque [20] Benoît Bourque
Kent South
Shediac Bay-Dieppe Robert Gauvin [20] Chantal Landry [21] Robert Gauvin
Shediac-Cap-Acadie Jacques LeBlanc [20] Jean Bourgeois [21] Jacques LeBlanc
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé
Tantramar Megan Mitton [21] Megan Mitton
Memramcook-Tantramar
Dieppe-Memramcook Richard Losier [20] Jacques Giguère [21] Richard Losier
Dieppe
Moncton East Alexandre Cédric Doucet [29] Daniel Allain [14]
Moncton Centre Rob McKee [20] Rob McKee
Moncton South Greg Turner [30] Claire Johnson [20] Greg Turner
Moncton South
Merged district
Sherry Wilson #
Moncton Southwest
Moncton Northwest Ernie Steeves [31] Ana Santana [21] Ernie Steeves
Champdoré-Irishtown Lyne Chantal Boudreau [32] New district
Riverview Sarah Lord [33] Bruce Fitch
Albert-Riverview Sherry Wilson [34] Dave Gauthro [20] Mike Holland [12]
Albert
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills Don Monahan [35] Brian Boucher [21] Ross Wetmore [10]
Gagetown-Petitcodiac

Southern

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
Progressive ConservativesLiberalGreenPANBNDPOther
Sussex-Three Rivers Tammy Scott-Wallace [26] Tammy Scott-Wallace
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins Faytene Grasseschi [36] Nomination convention 11 May [37] Laura Myers [21] Gary Crossman [11]
Hampton
Quispamsis Blaine Higgs [38] Alex White [39] Blaine Higgs
Rothesay Ted Flemming [26] Alyson Townsend [40] Zara MacKay-Boyce [21] Ted Flemming
Saint John East David Alston [41] Gerald Irish [21] Glen Savoie
Saint John Portland-Simonds Nomination convention 8 May [37] Trevor Holder
Portland-Simonds
Saint John Harbour David Hickey [20] Mariah Darling [21] Vacant
Saint John West-Lancaster Joanna Killen [21] Dorothy Shephard
Saint John Lancaster
Kings Centre Bill Oliver [26] Bruce Dryer [21] Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville Patty Borthwick [20] Andrea Anderson-Mason
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
Saint Croix Kathy Bockus [42] Troy Lyons [43] Kathy Bockus

Capital Region

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
Progressive ConservativesLiberalGreenPANBNDPOther
Oromocto-Sunbury Mary Wilson [26] Nomination convention 16 May [37] Tim Thompson [21] Mary Wilson
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
Fredericton-Grand Lake Kris Austin [26] Ken Washburn [21] Kris Austin
Fredericton-Lincoln David Coon [21] New district
Fredericton South-Silverwood Susan Holt [44] Simon Ouellette [21] New district
Fredericton North Jill Green [45] Luke Randall [20] Anthea Plummer [21] Glen Davis [46] Jill Green
Fredericton-York Ryan Cullins [26] Tanya Whitney [20] Pam Allen-LeBlanc [21] Michael Broderick [47] Ryan Cullins
Hanwell-New Maryland Judy Wilson-Shee [48] Susan Jonah [21] New district
Carleton-York Richard Ames [49] Chris Duffie [50] Burt Folkins [21] Richard Ames

Upper River Valley

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
Progressive ConservativesLiberalGreenPANBNDPOther
Woodstock-Hartland Bill Hogan [26] Bill Hogan
Carleton
Carleton-Victoria Margaret Johnson [26] Margaret Johnson
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin Chuck Chiasson [20] Chuck Chiasson
Victoria-La Vallée
Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières Roger Quimper [51] Jean-Claude D'Amours [20] Jean-Claude D'Amours
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston Nomination convention 11 May [52] Francine Landry [20] Francine Landry

Notes

  1. Holt will run in the new riding of Fredericton South-Silverwood.
  2. Coon will run in the new riding of Fredericton-Lincoln.
  3. DeSaulniers was the MLA for Fredericton-York from 2018-2020. The party has named another candidate in his former seat, [1] and he is considering running in his home riding of Fredericton-Grand Lake. [2]

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Opinion poll sources

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