1999 New Brunswick general election

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1999 New Brunswick general election
Flag of New Brunswick.svg
←  1995 June 7, 1999 2003  →
55 seats of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
28 seats were needed for a majority
Turnout75.59% [1]
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Bernard Lord crop.jpg Camille Theriault.jpg
NDP
Leader Bernard Lord Camille Thériault Elizabeth Weir
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Leader since199719971988
Leader's seat Moncton East Kent South Saint John Harbour
Last election6481
Seats won44101
Seat changeIncrease2.svg38Decrease2.svg38Steady2.svg
Popular vote209,008146,93434,526
Percentage53.0%37.3%8.8%
SwingIncrease2.svg22.1%Decrease2.svg14.3%Decrease2.svg0.9%
Nb1999.PNG
Map of New Brunswick's ridings coloured in based on the winning parties and their popular vote
Premier before election

Camille Thériault
Liberal

Premier after election

Bernard Lord
Progressive Conservative

Rendition of party representation in the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election. .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Progressive Conservatives (44) Liberals (10) New Democrats (1) Nb-seating-1999.png
Rendition of party representation in the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election.
  Progressive Conservatives (44)
  Liberals (10)
  New Democrats (1)

The 1999 New Brunswick general election was held on June 7, 1999, to elect the 55 members of the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly.

Contents

Campaign

The election marked the debut of both Camille Thériault and Bernard Lord as leaders of the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives respectively. It was Elizabeth Weir's third general election as leader of the New Democratic Party.

Thériault's Liberals were widely expected to win a fourth majority government from the outset of the campaign, with opinion polls showing them leading by double-digits. However, the PCs were able to capitalize on the issue of highway tolls and use it to portray the Liberals as arrogant. Lord made the tolls an effective wedge issue, saying they were unfair to people who lived near the toll booths and had to drive through them daily. Lord then pledged to implement 20 of his key promises in his first 200 days in office, styled as "200 Days of Change", a message modelled on the Contract with America and the Common Sense Revolution, and it resonated with voters. Another disadvantage for the Liberals was the loss of former premier Frank McKenna, who had retired after 10 years in office in 1997. McKenna was widely popular and Thériault had difficulty shaking negative comparisons between himself and his predecessor.

Following a huge surge in the final weeks of the campaign, Lord became Premier with his party winning its largest majority in the history of New Brunswick. Lord's PCs also won the majority of Acadian seats, something the party had struggled to do in the past.

At 80% of the legislature, Lord's 44-seat landslide victory was viewed as remarkable by all parties. Thériault, who came off in the campaign as cold and uncharismatic, delivered what pundits thought was his best speech of the campaign on election night when he said "the people of New Brunswick have spoken, and the people of New Brunswick are never wrong". Furthermore, Lord's massive victory had a coattail effect that resulted in the defeat of many Liberals who had been viewed by pundits as undefeatable.

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firmLast day
of survey		Source NBPC NBLA NBNDP CoR OtherMESample
Election 1999June 7, 199953.037.38.80.70.2
OmnifactsJune 1999 [2] 49407——3.2901
LégerMay 26, 1999 [3] 334615——3.9603
OmnifactsMay 1999 [4] 4639131.5—3.6779
OmnifactsMay 1999 [5] 4537131—3.6850
Baseline Market ResearchMay 1999 [5] 36.846.714.91.6—3.5443
May 11, 1999 [6] 335110—64.8—
Corporate Research AssociatesMarch 1999 [7] 28518——4.9—
Baseline Market ResearchJanuary 13, 1999 [8] 3251143—4.5500
Corporate Research AssociatesNovember 30, 1998 [9] 255113——3.4806
Corporate Research AssociatesAugust 24, 1998 [10] 205614——4.9405
Corporate Research AssociatesJune 1998 [11] 214919——3.4402
Corporate Research AssociatesFebruary 24, 1998 [12] 304320——3.0800
Election 1995 September 11, 199530.8751.639.657.110.75

Riding-specific polls

Moncton East by-election

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firmLast day
of survey		Source NBPC NBLA NBNDP CoR MESample
By-election 1998October 19, 199850.9339.739.34—
SES Canada ResearchOctober 14, 1998 [13] 494011—5.7301
Election 1995 September 11, 199518.0261.8011.828.36

Summary of results

PartyParty Leader# of
candidates		SeatsPopular Vote
1995 Dissolution Elected% Change#%Change
  Progressive Conservative Bernard Lord 556944+289%209,00853.0%+22.1%
  Liberal Camille Theriault 55484510-77%146,93437.3%-14.3%
  New Democratic Elizabeth Weir 55111-34,5268.8%-0.9%
Confederation of Regions Jim Webb 18----2,8070.7%-6.4%
  Natural Law Christopher Collrin 9----5270.1%-0.2%
  Independents n/a4----4350.1%-0.3%
Total196555555-394,237100%+1.2%
Popular vote
PC
 
53.02%
Liberal
 
37.27%
New Democratic
 
8.76%
Conf. of Regions
 
0.71%
Others
 
0.24%
Seats summary
PC
 
80.00%
Liberal
 
18.18%
New Democratic
 
1.82%

Narrow wins and losses

A lot of Liberals, many high profile, lost their seats by very narrow margins while some barely survived. Below is a list of the 14 ridings (over a quarter of all districts) decided by less than 10%. Incumbent Liberal cabinet ministers are in bold, other incumbents are in italics.

RidingWinnerSecond PlaceMargin
Dieppe-Memramcook      Cy LeBlanc      Greg O'Donnell 4.4%
Fredericton North D. Peter Forbes Brad Woodside 4.4%
Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak Eric MacKenzie Greg Byrne 4.1%
Fundy Isles Eric Allaby Ed Brine2.2%
Grand Falls Region Jean-Guy Laforest Marcel Deschênes5.8%
Grand Lake David Jordan Doug Tyler 6.9%
Kent South Camille Thériault Jean-Noel Allain7.4%
Nepisiguit Joel Bernard Alban Landry 4.7%
Nigadoo-Chaleur Roland Haché Hermel Vienneau7.5%
Restigouche West Benoit Cyr Jean-Paul Savoie 3.7%
Rogersville-Kouchibouguac Rose-May Poirier Maurice Richard1.8%
Saint John Champlain Carole Keddy Roly MacIntyre 2.2%
Victoria-Tobique Larry Kennedy Carman Pirie5.8%
Western Charlotte Tony Huntjens Peter Heelis6.1%

Candidates

Party leaders and cabinet ministers are denoted in bold.

Northern New Brunswick

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
1. Restigouche West Jean-Paul Savoie 3,328 Benoît Cyr 3,592Rose Duguay 255 Jean-Paul Savoie
2. Campbellton Edmond Blanchard 4,321Pierre F. Dubé 2,569Johanne Parent 295 Edmond Blanchard
3. Dalhousie-Restigouche East Carolle de Ste. Croix 2,830 Dennis Furlong 5,148Joel William Hickey 190Francine Richard (NLP) withdrawnCarolle de Ste. Croix
4. Nigadoo-Chaleur Roland Haché 3,435Hermel Vienneau 2,862Raoul Charest 1,244Gilles Godin (NLP) 106 Albert Doucet
5. Bathurst Marcelle Mersereau 3,418Bob Stairs 2,427Antoine Duguay 453 Marcelle Mersereau
6. Nepisiguit Alban Landry 2,227 Joel Bernard 2,534Gilles Halley 1,824 Alban Landry
7. Caraquet Bernard Theriault 4,194 Gaston Moore 3,369Denis Doiron 596 Bernard Theriault
8. Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou Jean-Camille DeGrâce 2,563 Paul Robichaud 5,910Calixte Chaisson 368 Jean-Camille DeGrâce
9. Centre-Péninsule Denis Landry 2,097 Louis-Philippe McGraw 3,045 Roger Duguay 955 Denis Landry
10. Tracadie-Sheila Serge Rousselle 2,926 Elvy Robichaud 5,453Claudette Duguay 285 Elvy Robichaud

Eastern New Brunswick

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
11. Miramichi Bay Danny Gay 3,066 Réjean Savoie 4,014Donald D. Doucet 365 Danny Gay
12. Miramichi-Bay du Vin James Doyle 3,076 Michael Malley 5,393John Gagnon 147 James Doyle
13. Miramichi Centre John McKay 2,975 Kim Jardine 4,076Terry Mullin 853 John McKay
14. Southwest Miramichi Reg MacDonald 2,850 Norman Betts 4,019Terry Carter 254 Reg MacDonald
15. Rogersville-Kouchibouguac Maurice Richard 2,700 Rose-May Poirier 2,820Maria Daigle 1,197  Kenneth Johnson
16. Kent Shawn Graham 3,264Valmond Daigle 2,471Charles Richard 402J.R. Beers (Ind) 103Shawn Graham
17. Kent South Camille Thériault 4,546Jean-Noël Allain 3,838Collette Doucette 1,171 Camille Thériault
18. Shediac-Cap-Pélé Bernard Richard 5,422Odette Babineau 3,240Anne Marie Dupuis 633 Bernard Richard

Southeastern New Brunswick

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
19. Tantramar Kirk W. Meldrum 925 Peter Mesheau 3,311Heather Patterson 990Frank Comeau (Ind) 47Peter Mesheau
20. Dieppe-Memramcook Greg O'Donnell 4,738 Cy LeBlanc 5,206Marc LeBel 754 Greg O'Donnell
21. Moncton East Kevin John Fram 2,046 Bernard Lord 5,248Marc Robar 542Laurent Maltais (NLP) 59Bernard Lord
22. Moncton South James E. Lockyer 2,710 Joan MacAlpine 3,143Theresa Sullivan 687 James E. Lockyer
23. Moncton North Gene Devereux 2,304 René Landry 3,776Nancy Hartling 1049John Gallant (CoR) 103Gene Devereux
24. Moncton Crescent Kenneth R. MacLeod 2,233 John Betts 4,825Carl Fowler 699Albert H. Wood (CoR) 85Kenneth R. MacLeod
25. Petitcodiac Gary Stewart Armstrong 1,171 Wally Stiles 4,284Blair McInnis 447Donald R. Alward (CoR) 278 Hollis Steeves
26. Riverview Al J. Kavanaugh 2,151 Pat Crossman 4,439Brad Smith 888Shane Harvey (CoR) 137

Jamie Ed Borden (Ind) 81

Al J. Kavanaugh
27. Albert Harry Doyle 2,065 Wayne Steeves 3,633Myrna Geldart 529Dean Ryder (CoR) 136Harry Doyle
28. Kings East LeRoy Armstrong 2,420 Doug Cosman 4,310Jessica Coleman 354Eldon MacKay (CoR) 109LeRoy Armstrong

Greater Saint John & Fundy Coast

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
29. Hampton-Belleisle Georgie Day 2,628 Bev Harrison 4,551Jocelyne Comeau 769 Georgie Day
30. Kennebecasis Peter LeBlanc 2,388 Brenda Fowlie 4,070Albert Charles Joseph Comeau 939Greg Boyle (CoR) 192Peter LeBlanc
31. Saint John-Fundy Stuart Jamieson 1,933 Rodney Weston 3,473Robert E. Holmes-Lauder 494David Lytle (CoR) 115Stuart Jamieson
32. Saint John-Kings Zita Longobardi 1,752 Margaret-Ann Blaney 4,605Ken Wilcox 664  Laureen Jarrett
33. Saint John Champlain Roly MacIntyre 1,949 Carole Keddy 2,073Dr. Paula C. Tippett 1,597Dolores H. Cook (CoR) 98

Jeanne Geldart (NLP) 36

Roly MacIntyre
34. Saint John Harbour Mark Thomas McNulty 1,347Tim Clarke 1,349 Elizabeth Weir 2,398Thomas Mitchell (NLP) 54Elizabeth Weir
35. Saint John Portland Leo McAdam 1,668 Trevor Holder 3,773Pam F. Coates 844Miville Couture (NLP) 45Leo McAdam
36. Saint John Lancaster Jane Barry 2,190 Norm McFarlane 3,999Bill Farren 945 Jim Webb (CoR) 154

Christopher B. Collrin (NLP) 96

Jane Barry
37. Grand Bay-Westfield Grace Losier 1,433 Milt Sherwood 3,546Percy Ward 490Colby Fraser (CoR) 240Milt Sherwood
38. Charlotte Sheldon Lee 3,263Sharon Tucker 2,071Eugene A. Dugas 299 Sheldon Lee
39. Fundy Isles Eric Allaby 1,248Ed Brine 1,192Bill Barteau 66 Eric Allaby
40. Western Charlotte Peter Heelis 3,071 Tony Huntjens 3,490Andrew Gordon Graham 283  Ann Breault

Greater Fredericton

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
41. Oromocto-Gagetown Ron Lindala 2,059 Jody Carr 4,372Terry John Hovey 283Paul Pye (CoR) 151 Vaughn Blaney
42. Grand Lake Doug Tyler 3,245 David Charles Jordan 3,769Phyllis MacLean 384Murray C. Barton (CoR) 223Doug Tyler
43. Fredericton North Brad Woodside 3,698 D. Peter Forbes 4,081Todd Joseph Tingley 632Ronald Bubar (CoR) 203

William Parker (NLP) 34

Jim Wilson
44. Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak Greg Byrne 2,685 Eric MacKenzie 2,949Pat A. Kennedy 715David Alexander Brown (CoR) 96

Andie Haché (NLP) 31

Greg Byrne
45. Fredericton South Lorraine Siliphant 2,510 Brad Green 4,070Myrna Gunter 1,409Michael McKay (NLP) 66Brad Green
46. New Maryland Joan Kingston 3,077 Keith Ashfield 4,223Carol E. Moore 441George Rennick (CoR) 182Joan Kingston
47. York John Flynn 3,783 Don Kinney 4,332Josh Johnson 449Malcolm MacNeil (CoR) 88John Flynn
48. Mactaquac David Olmstead 2,385 Kirk MacDonald 4,405Sandra Burtt 463Wilmot F. Ross (CoR) 217David Olmstead

Upper Saint John River Valley

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
49. Woodstock James W. Andow 1,989 David Alward 5,354Sheila Moore 242  Bruce Atherton Smith
50. Carleton David Harvey 3,240 Dale Graham 4,561Marilyn Young 176 Dale Graham
51. Victoria-Tobique Larry Kennedy 3,127Carmen Cecil Pirie 2,768Amy Dunham 144Carter Charles Edgar (Ind) 204Larry Kennedy
52. Grand Falls Region Marcel Deschênes 3,094 Jean-Guy Laforest 3,493Jean-Paul Gallant 265  Paul Duffie
53. Madawaska-la-Vallée Huguette Plourde 1,798 Percy Mockler 4,367Jean-Charles Lombard 189 Percy Mockler
54. Edmundston Roland Beaulieu 2,173 Madeleine Dubé 3,567Michael Gagné 366  Bernard Valcourt
55. Madawaska-les-Lacs Georges Corriveau 2,138 Jeannot Volpé 4,289Marie-Pierre Valay-Nadeau 154 Jeannot Volpé

References

  1. ↑ "Provincial Election Results - Elections NB". February 5, 2014.
  2. ↑ Cox, Kevin (June 7, 1999). "Liberal 'cakewalk' looks more like an uphill climb: New Brunswick election is too close to call though Theriault at first looked certain to win". The Globe and Mail. p. A7.
  3. ↑ Cox, Kevin (June 1, 1999). "Polls suggest N.B. Liberals in tough fight with Tories: Conservatives say results have given new energy to campaign; Grits believe team now working harder to win June 7 vote". The Globe and Mail. p. A11.
  4. ↑ "New Brunswick: Tories take lead in polls". The Times Colonist. May 29, 1999. p. A9.
  5. 1 2 Poitras, Jacques (May 29, 1999). "Poll gives PCs first lead since Hatfield". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.
  6. ↑ Cox, Kevin (June 18, 1999). "New Brunswick Tory Leader calls for tax cuts Lord tries to cut Liberals' lead by arguing that high provincial rates drive away doctors and nurses". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.
  7. ↑ "Liberals' popularity up slightly: poll". The Telegraph Journal. March 9, 1999.
  8. ↑ White, Alan (January 21, 1999). "Pollster finds Liberals are main choice". The Telegraph Journal.
  9. ↑ Hrabluk, Lisa; Veniot, Andre (December 8, 1998). "Liberal popularity dips in latest poll". The Telegraph Journal.
  10. ↑ Veniot, Andre (September 2, 1998). "Liberals' approval rating jumps". The Telegraph Journal.
  11. ↑ Goguen, Giselle (June 13, 1998). "Theriault should wait to call election, poll indicates". The Telegraph Journal.
  12. ↑ Richardson, Don (May 29, 1999). "Poll tracks steady Liberal decline". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.
  13. ↑ Hrabluk, Lisa (October 17, 1998). "Moncton East going down to the wire: poll". The Telegraph Journal.
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