1991 New Brunswick general election

1991 New Brunswick general election

←  1987 September 23, 1991 1995  →
←  outgoing members members  →
58 seats of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 30 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party   CoR Leader Frank McKenna Arch Pafford Party Liberal Confederation of Regions Leader since 1985 1989 Leader's seat Chatham Ran in Miramichi-Newcastle (lost) Last election 58 seats, 60.39% New party Seats won 46 8 Seat change 12 8 Popular vote 193,890 87,256 Percentage 47.11% 21.18% Swing 13.28pp New party   Third party Fourth party   PC NDP Leader Dennis Cochrane Elizabeth Weir Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since 1990 1988 Leader's seat Petitcodiac Saint John South Last election 0 seats, 28.59% 0 seats, 10.55% Seats won 3 1 Seat change 3 1 Popular vote 85,210 44,384 Percentage 20.69% 10.78% Swing 7.89pp 0.23pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election Frank McKenna Liberal Premier after election Frank McKenna Liberal

Rendition of party representation in the 52nd New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election.

  Liberals (46)

  Confederation of Regions (8)

  Progressive Conservatives (3)

  New Democrats (1)

The 1991 New Brunswick general election was held on September 23, 1991, to elect 58 members to the 52nd New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

As expected, the Liberal Party won a large majority. Many were surprised that the Confederation of Regions Party formed the official opposition. ^[1] Though they ran even with the PCs in popular vote, their concentration of support in rural anglophone ridings gave them considerably more seats. Weir's personal popularity and name recognition was not enough to give her party more seats as she, and the Tories, had votes relatively evenly spread around the province.

Background

Though Frank McKenna's Liberals were expected to win a second term after sweeping all 58 seats in 1987, any of the other three parties were considered contenders for official opposition.

The New Democratic Party was led by Elizabeth Weir, who had been the strongest and most consistent voice of opposition to the Liberals since her election as party leader in 1988. In the ensuing three years, thanks to the lack of opposition members in the legislature (MLAs), her firebrand style had made her a well-known name in New Brunswick politics.

The fledgling Confederation of Regions Party had been created out of the ashes of the Hatfield Tories when the latter went from majority government to zero seats in 1987. CoR was running numerous former Tory MLAs and candidates, and even some former Tory cabinet ministers. Its base of support was in English-speaking regions of New Brunswick, where many conservatives had become alienated by Hatfield's close relationship with Acadians.

The Progressive Conservatives had been in power for the majority of years since confederation, and 17 straight years before 1987. Even so, the scandals of the final Hatfield years and the growing unpopularity of the federal Progressive Conservatives hindered their success. Additionally they had perceived internal problems having gone through four leaders since the last election: Hatfield, then two-year interim leader Malcolm MacLeod then Barbara Baird, and then Dennis Cochrane.

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level

Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source	NBLA	CoR	NBPC	NBNDP	Other	ME	Sample
Election 1991	September 23, 1991		47.11	21.18	20.69	10.78	0.24
Baseline Research	August 1991	[2]	51	15	19	13	—	4	350
Baseline Research	August 1991	[3]	51	15	22	10	—	4	350
Baseline Research	July 1991	[4]	53 [5]	—	18	—	—	—	350
Omnifacts	June 1991	[6]	37	—	8	17	—	—	—
Baseline Research	January 1991	[7]	58	15	8	19	—	—	350
Baseline Research	March 1990	[8]	58	12	17	13	—	—	—
Baseline Research	January 1990 [9]	[10]	58	12	17	13	—	—	358 [9]
Baseline Research	June 1989	[11]	63	9	17	—	—	6	—
New Brunswick Confederation of Regions Party founded (1989)
Election 1987	October 13, 1987		60.39	-	28.59	10.55	0.47

Close results

A number of races were close 2 or 3 way contests with only a small fraction of votes separating the winner from the losers. The tables below highlight the seats that the three major parties missed by less than 10 percentage points (pp) and the margins between them and the winner.

Liberal	Confederation of Regions	Progressive Conservative
Riverview (-0.27pp from CoR) Kings East (-0.33pp from PC) Shippegan-les-îles (-0.51pp from PC) Petitcodiac (-1.16pp from PC) Saint John South (-1.82pp from NDP) Southwest Miramichi (-2.35pp from CoR) Oromocto (-2.94pp from CoR) York South (-6.68pp from CoR)	Queens North (-0.20pp from Lib) Petitcodiac (-0.60pp from PC) Kings Centre (-1.37pp from Lib) Saint John East (-1.56pp from Lib) Saint John Fundy (-4.91pp from Lib) Miramichi-Newcastle (-7.52pp from Lib) Carleton South (-7.55pp from Lib) Kings East (-9.17pp from PC) Queens South (-9.19pp from Lib)	Carleton North (-2.55pp from Lib) Saint John Fundy (-2.56pp from Lib) Miramichi-Newcastle (-3.50pp from Lib) Kings Centre (-6.81pp from Lib)

Results

Results by party

Summary of the 1991 Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick election results

Party		Party leader	# of candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				1987	Dissolution	Elected	% Change	#	%	Change
	Liberal	Frank McKenna	58	58	58	46	-20.7%	193,890	47.11%	-13.28%
	Confederation of Regions	Arch Pafford	48	-	0	8	-	87,256	21.18%	-
	Progressive Conservative	Dennis Cochrane	58	0	0	3	-	85,210	20.69%	-7.89%
	New Democratic	Elizabeth Weir	58	0	0	1	-	44,384	10.78%	+0.23%
	Independent		2	-	-	-		850	0.21%	-0.26%
Total			224	58	58	58	-	411,590	100%
Source: http://www.gnb.ca/elections

Popular vote Liberal   47.11% Conf. of Regions   21.18% PC   20.69% New Democratic   10.78% Others   0.24%

Seats summary Liberal   79.31% Conf. of Regions   13.79% PC   5.17% New Democratic   1.72%

Results by region

Party Name			North	Central	South West	South East	Total
	Liberal	Seats:	15	8	14	9	46
		Popular Vote:	57.0	40.1	39.8	51.4	47.1
	Confederation of Regions	Seats:	0	6	0	2	8
		Popular Vote:	5.8	35.4	25.6	17.8	21.2
	Progressive Conservative	Seats:	1	0	1	1	3
		Popular Vote:	23.6	19.2	21.3	18.6	20.7
	New Democratic	Seats:	0	0	1	0	1
		Popular Vote:	13.0	5.2	13.3	12.1	10.8
Total seats:			16	14	16	12	58

Results by riding

Legend

• bold denotes party leader
• † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election

North

Consisting of Victoria, Madawaska, Restigouche and Gloucester county ridings.

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		CoR		PC		NDP		Other
Victoria-Tobique		Larry R. Kennedy 2,854		Carl Skaarup 1,580		Neville J. Crabbe 1,664		Cheryl Ann Elizabeth Pelkey 308				Larry Kennedy
Grand Falls		Paul Duffie 3,617		Roy Simon Dee 197		Léo R. Thériault 1,209		Clyde Winchester 207				Paul Duffie
Madawaska-les-Lacs		Georges Corriveau 2,906				Raout Cyr 2,211		Gérard Caron 601				Georges Corriveau
Madawaska Centre		Gérald Clavette 2,942				Don Marmen 1,706		Jean-Marie St-Onge 412				Gérald Clavette
Edmundston		Roland Beaulieu 3,686				Patrick Dalpé 1,156		Réal Couturier 719				Roland Beaulieu
Madawaska South		Pierrette Ringuette 2,843				Théo Poitras 1,715		Julien Tardif 209				Pierrette Ringuette
Restigouche West		Jean Paul Savoie 3,922		Robert A. Boudreau 517		Félix J. Dubé 2,524		Rino Pelletier 302				Jean Paul Savoie
Campbellton		Edmond Blanchard 3,599		Ronald Rioux 1,062		Bill Ferguson 934		Douglas Gordon Kingston 593				Edmond Blanchard
Dalhousie		Allan Maher 2,804		Isabelle Ann Culverwell Davis 451		Scott Chedore 608		Aurele Ferlotte 1,927				Allan Maher
Restigouche East		Rayburn Doucett 3,023		Norman Shea 381		Richard Lapointe 294		Walter Gauthier, Jr. 1,241				Rayburn Doucett
Nigadoo-Chaleur		Albert Doucet 4,732				David Boudreau 466		Raoul Charest 1,696		Ulric DeGrace (Ind.) 714		Albert Doucet
Nepisiguit-Chaleur		Frank Branch 3,752		Laurie Alan Daley 760		Robert Hornibrook 616		Karen Ann McCrea 1,172				Frank Branch
Bathurst		Marcelle Mersereau 4,047		Laurie Joseph Robichaud 1,280		Claire Wilt 1,025		Colette Buttimer 832				Paul Kenny†
Caraquet		Bernard Thériault 5,298				Gilbert Godin 2,279		Roger Duguay 2,167				Bernard Thériault
Shippagan-les-Îles		Aldéa Landry 4,831				Jean Gauvin 4,881		John Gagnon 128				Aldéa Landry
Tracadie		Denis Losier 6,374				Colette McGraw 2,103		Pierre Cousineau 1,427				Denis Losier

Central

Consisting of Carleton, York, Sunbury and Northumberland county ridings.

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		CoR		PC		NDP		Other
Carleton North		Fred Harvey 2,163		Jack Salmon 857		Dale Graham 2,032		Anna Marie Kilfoil 84				Fred Harvey
Carleton Centre		Allison DeLong 2,087		Lois M. Clark 1,281		Mary Hatfield 1,387		Linda Marie Lawrence 104				Allison DeLong
Carleton South		Bruce Smith 2,462		Jerry Covey 2,036		Bill Hamilton 890		Arthur L. Slipp 254				Bruce Smith
York North		Bob Simpson 3,825		Gregory James Hargrove 5,463		Mark A. Moir 1,174		Chris Orenstein 450				Bob Simpson
York South		Al Lacey 4,754		Danny Cameron 5,607		Marven Grant 1,797		Rita Hurley 602				Al Lacey
Fredericton South		Russ King 4,584		Meryl Sarty 3,295		Jamie Henderson 2,575		Pauline MacKenzie 1,463		Henry John Marshall (Ind.) 136		Russ King
Fredericton North		Jim Wilson 3,864		Ed Allen 6,052		Donald H. Parent 1,810		Richard Stephen DeSaulniers 553				Jim Wilson
Sunbury		Shawn Perry 2,616		Max White 3,935		Keith Ashfield 799		Barbara Ann Fairley 306				Doug Harrison†
Oromocto		Tom Gilbert 2,036		Albert Rector 2,197		Joe Mombourquette 939		Alton Shears 297				Tom Gilbert
Southwest Miramichi		Claude Stewart 2,798		Brent Taylor 2,954		Donald Long 701		Larry Lynch 193				Morris Green†
Miramichi-Newcastle		John McKay 2,583		Arch Pafford 2,252		Paul Dawson 2,573		Liane Tiboudeau-Doucet 315				John McKay
Chatham		Frank McKenna 3,147		Jim West 1,563		Richard Hilchey 598		Wera Baldwin 383				Frank McKenna
Bay du Vin		Reg MacDonald 2,834		John J. Keating 604		Muriel Lamkey 1,608		Jeanne Thériault 220				Reg MacDonald
Miramichi Bay		Danny Gay 3,940		James Grant MacIntosh 638		Emilien LeBreton 2,117		Norman A. Richardson 493				Danny Gay

South West

Consisting of Queens, Kings, Saint John and Charlotte county ridings.

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		CoR		PC		NDP		Other
Queens North		Doug Tyler 1,740		Constance Melissa Webber 1,654		Clayton Chase 256		Susan Barton 94				Doug Tyler
Queens South		Vaughn Blaney 1,543		Jarvis M. Ducey 1,205		Larry C. Black 676		Gordon Black 255				Vaughn Blaney
Kings West		Laureen Jarrett 6,219		Glendon F. Jones 3,810		Nancy E. Grant 3,267		Roger M. Olmstead 1,494				Laureen Jarrett
Kings Centre		Georgie Day 3,011		Colby Fraser 2,882		Charles Edward Murray 2,371		Marian Jefferies 1,133				Kal Seaman†
Kings East		Tim Wilson 2,843		Mel Stockford 2,098		Hazen Myers 2,871		Anne-Marie Dupuis 617				Pete Dalton†
Saint John Fundy		Stuart Jamieson 2,213		Gary William Vincent 1,868		Bev Harrison 2,033		Kathleen Fudge 907				Stuart Jamieson
East Saint John		George J. Jenkins 2,785		Gary Ewart 2,650		Don Elliott 1,360		Ben Donaldson 1,868				Peter Trites†
Saint John Harbour		Louis Murphy 1,779		Marie Gerrior 844		Nargis Kheraj 496		Al Maund 968				Louis Murphy
Saint John South		John Mooney 1,596		Ray McDevitt 549		Paddy Addison 514		Elizabeth Weir 1,675				John Mooney
Saint John Park		Shirley Dysart 1,743		Richard Condon Sullivan Kinsella 825		Shirley McAlary 733		Judith Meinert 777				Shirley Dysart
Saint John North		Leo McAdam 1,892		Peter A. Whitebone 950		Doug Shippee 1,089		Julie Galbraith 966				Leo McAdam
Saint John West		Jane Barry 3,527		Jim Webb 2,471		Gerry Maher 1,559		Robert W. Hickes 1,382				Jane Barry
Charlotte-Fundy		Eric Allaby 1,950		Keith B. Guptilt 957		Sharon Tucker 757		Dorothy Matthews 183				Eric Allaby
Charlotte Centre		Sheldon Lee 2,195		Connie M. Stewart 516		Stanley John Smith 471		Jean Stewart 162				Sheldon Lee
Charlotte West		Reid Hurley 1,796		Mabel Groom 768		Bev Lawrence 1,077		Ellen Smith 281				Reid Hurley
St. Stephen-Milltown		Ann Breault 1,820		Robert Michael Booth 798		Ken Stevens 1,129		Irene Tobin 114				Ann Breault

South East

Consisting of Kent, Westmorland and Albert county ridings.

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		CoR		PC		NDP		Other
Kent North		Conrad Landry 3,377				Dominique Babineau 939		Docile Doiron 1,011				Conrad Landry
Kent Centre		Alan Graham 3,025		Percy Beers 626		David MacDonald 347		Neil Gardner 379				Alan Graham
Kent South		Camille Thériault 5,573				Jean-Claude Cormier 2,023		Gérald Mazerolle 1,256				Camille Thériault
Shediac		Bernard Richard 7,298		Lester Russell Hyslop 481		Emile Goguen Dupré 1,240		Patrick Allain 830				Azor LeBlanc†
Tantramar		Marilyn Trenholme 3,008		Clarke Edgar Sheppard 1,091		William R. Campbell 556		Robert Hall 1,419				Marilyn Trenholme
Memramcook		Greg O'Donnell 6,393		Julia Elnora LeBlanc 407		Jean-Robert Gaudet 680		Martin Aubin 1,797				Greg O'Donnell
Moncton East		J. Raymond Frenette 4,041		William André Joseph LeSage 1,120		John Hansen 1,026		Mary Elizabeth McLaughlin 1,416				Ray Frenette
Moncton North		Mike McKee 4,797		Tom Taylor 1,780		John MacFarlane 1,262		J.C. Bourque 973				Mike McKee
Moncton West		Jim Lockyer 3,558		Arthur M. Hayden 1,691		Ben D. Stymiest 1,483		Stephanie Day Domingue 726				Jim Lockyer
Petitcodiac		Hollis S. Steeves 4,698		Leona May Geldart 4,786		Dennis Cochrane 4,879		Richard Hay 1,204				Hollis Steeves
Riverview		Hubert Seamans 3,115		Gordon B. Willden 3,139		Ross MacCallum 2,084		Wayne Brown 594				Hubert Seamans
Albert		Lee Martin 1,432		Beverly M. Brine 2,328		Wayne Steeves 1,641		Elizabeth Venart 277				Harold Terris†

References

1. Cox, K. (1991, Sep 24). Liberals take N.B. as CoR surprises new party wins official opposition. The Globe and Mail
2. Spears, John (September 20, 1991). "N.B. Liberals heading for massive win, new poll says". The Toronto Star. p. A11.
3. Spears, John (September 15, 1991). "N.B. opposition makes a fight of it - for 2nd place". The Toronto Star. p. B8.
4. Flaherty, Elaine (August 23, 1991). "Clear sailing for McKenna; Three opposition parties will scramble for few dissenting votes". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
5. Spears, John (August 22, 1991). "McKenna calls Sept. 23 vote". The Toronto Star. p. A2.
6. Sheppard, Robert (June 29, 1991). "Rallying around a political ghost". The Globe and Mail. p. A15.
7. Cox, Kevin (April 9, 1991). "N.B. parties gearing up to slay giant: McKenna's Liberals in no hurry to end one-party government". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
8. Cox, Kevin (March 26, 1990). "N.B. may head to polls within next year". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
9. "McKenna still on top, poll finds". The Globe and Mail. February 14, 1990. p. N18.
10. Cox, Kevin (March 26, 1990). "N.B. may head to polls within next year". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
11. Spears, John (September 10, 1989). "Anti-bilingual movement takes formal root in N.B". The Toronto Star. p. A13.

Further reading

• Leyton-Brown, David, ed. (1998). Canadian Annual Review of Politics and Public Affairs, 1991 . Toronto: University of Toronto Press. ISBN   9781442672048.