Background
Justin Trudeau was elected as the leader of the Liberal Party in 2013. He led the party to victory in the 2015 federal election, with a majority government, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2021 with minority governments. On March 22, 2022, the Liberals reached a confidence and supply agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP), who agreed to support the Liberal government until June 2025 in exchange for specific policy commitments. [8]
Throughout 2024, public support for the Liberal Party declined. On June 24, the Liberals lost the Toronto—St. Paul's by-election. The seat was vacated by former minister Carolyn Bennett and represented by the Liberals since 1993, was considered a safe seat for the Liberals. The by-election was considered by some as a "referendum" on Trudeau's premiership. [9] [10] The loss marked the first time Liberals lost a seat that they had held prior to a by-election during the 44th Parliament. [11] In the aftermath of the by-election loss, Wayne Long publicly called on Trudeau to resign, the first Liberal MP to do so. [12] The Liberals lost a second by-election on September 16, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election, which had been vacated by former minister David Lametti and was considered to be a "safe" Liberal seat. Senior Liberal figures considered the by-election a "must-win". [13] On December 16, the Liberals lost the 2024 Cloverdale—Langley City federal by-election, a seat vacated by former Liberal MP John Aldag. [14]
On September 4, the NDP withdrew from their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals, though they did not commit to a motion of non-confidence. [15]
In October, Trudeau faced a caucus revolt when 24 Liberal MPs signed a letter demanding his resignation. However, Trudeau was defiant and unequivocal in his plans to lead the party in the next election. The dissident MPs continued to push for a caucus vote on Trudeau's leadership, though there is no formal mechanism in the party to force one. [16]
Resignation of Chrystia Freeland
Hours before the government's fall economic statement, Chrystia Freeland, the minister of finance and deputy prime minister, resigned due to her opposition to Trudeau's fiscal policy. [17] The move was unexpected, particularly since Freeland was seen as being very loyal, [18] [19] and led to further calls for Trudeau to step down. [20]
Four days later, on December 20, Trudeau conducted a major cabinet reshuffle. Nevertheless, pressure on Trudeau continued to build. Over 20 Liberal MPs publicly call for Trudeau to resign and over 50 sign a private letter asking him to resign. The same day, the NDP publicly committed to introducing a non-confidence motion against the government. [21] The Ontario, Atlantic and Quebec regional caucuses called on Trudeau to resign on December 21, [22] 23 [23] and 31, respectively. [24] On January 3, 2025, the Liberal caucus regional chairs met and called an emergency national Liberal caucus meeting, set for January 8, 2025. [25] [26]
On January 6, 2025, Trudeau announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister shortly after his successor is chosen. [27] [28]
Campaign
Following Trudeau's announcement, political commentators suggested that several figures were likely candidates: Anita Anand, Mark Carney, François-Philippe Champagne, Christy Clark, Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc. [29] [30] [31] [32] Other possible candidates named were Sean Fraser, [33] [32] Karina Gould [29] and Jonathan Wilkinson. [29] [30] [32] Freeland, a leading member of Trudeau's government, had been seen as a "possible heir apparent" as far back as 2021. [34] After her resignation from cabinet, some MPs voiced their support for her to replace Trudeau. [35] LeBlanc, another key member of Trudeau's cabinet and a leadership candidate in 2009, had reportedly been organizing a leadership campaign in April 2024, in the event Trudeau stepped down. [36] Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, had been courted by the party for the leadership in 2012, and had been rumoured as a star candidate in the 2021 election. [37] In November 2024, Carney did not rule out a future leadership bid. [38] Clark, the premier of British Columbia from 2011 to 2017, had called on Trudeau to step down on multiple occasions since 2022, and in October 2024, publicly expressed interest in leading the party. [39] Anand, Champagne and Joly were also widely believed to harbour leadership ambitions. [40]
The same day as Trudeau's announcement, Frank Baylis announced his intention to run for leader. [41] Baylis, the MP for Pierrefonds—Dollard from 2015 to 2019, had publicly mulled a leadership run since June 26, 2024, after the party lost the Toronto—St. Paul's by-election. [42] On January 9, Chandra Arya, MP for Nepean, announced his leadership bid. [43]
In an interview on January 10 with CBC Radio's The House, Clark confirmed she was seriously considering running for the leadership. Addressing her endorsement of Jean Charest in the 2022 Conservative leadership election, Clark claimed to have only done so to oppose Pierre Poilievre, and insisted she had never actually been a member of the Conservative Party. [44] Following the interview, a spokesman from the Conservative Party provided a screenshot of their records showing that Clark had been a member; Clark responded, saying she had "misspoke". Four days later, on January 14, Clark announced she would not run for leader, citing the short length of the race and insufficient French. [45]
On January 13, Jaime Battiste, MP for Sydney—Victoria, announced his campaign. If elected, Battiste, who is Mi'kmaw, would have become the first Indigenous prime minister. Though he acknowledged his bid was a longshot, he hoped it would inspire other Indigenous people and pave the way for future candidates. Battiste was also motivated by Fraser declining to run, and hoped to be a voice for the Atlantic provinces in the contest. [46]
On January 14, it was reported that Gould was preparing a leadership bid. Gould was the incumbent government house leader and had previously headed several ministries. [47]
Carney announced his candidacy on January 16. [48] Freeland announced her candidacy on January 17. [49] Gould announced her candidacy on January 18. [50] Former MP Ruby Dhalla announced her campaign on January 24. [51]
On January 25, Arya was disqualified by the party. [52] Arya did not elaborate on why the party had disqualified him. In a response to media inquiries, a Liberal Party spokesman cited a section of the party rules that state a candidate can be barred if a vetting committee finds a candidate "manifestly unfit for the office of Leader of the Party", but did not elaborate on what specifically were the disqualifying factors. [53] [54]
By January 27, the remaining six prospective candidates were approved by the party. [55]
On January 30, Jamie Battiste withdrew his candidacy after failing to raise the second installment of $50,000. He endorsed Mark Carney. [56] [57]
Rules and procedures
Under the procedure outlined by the party's constitution, all registered Liberals will be eligible to vote directly for leader by preferential ballot as long as they have been registered at least 41 days before the day of the leadership vote. To be eligible to register as a Liberal, and thus be permitted to vote, one must be a Canadian citizen, permanent resident of Canada, or have status under the Indian Act; not be a member of another political party; and be a minimum of 14 years old. [66] [2]
To be nominated, a candidate must collect 300 signatures from registered Liberals, including at least 100 from three different provinces or territories. [67]
Candidates are required to pay a $350,000 entrance fee to run. The fee is to be paid in four installments between January 23 and February 17 with only the initial $50,000 installment being refundable. [63]
Votes will be weighted, with each electoral district being allocated 100 points, and with points in a district allocated in proportion to each candidate by the number of first-preference votes received.
To win, 17,151 points are required. [68] If no candidate receives a majority of points on the first count, the candidate with the fewest points will be eliminated and their votes will be distributed in each electoral district among the remaining leadership contestants according to the next preference indicated. This process would then continue until one candidate has received a majority of points. [69]
