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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 54.57% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Date | May 27, 2017 |
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Convention | Toronto Congress Centre, Toronto |
Resigning leader | Stephen Harper |
Won by | Andrew Scheer |
Candidates | 13 |
Entrance Fee | C$100,000 ($50,000 of which is a refundable compliance deposit) [2] |
Spending limit | C$5,000,000 |
The Conservative Party of Canada held a leadership election on May 27, 2017. The leadership election was prompted by the resignation of Stephen Harper, who had led the Conservative Party of Canada as its leader from 2004, after the party's defeat in the 2015 election.
Thirteen candidates entered the contest: Chris Alexander, Maxime Bernier, Steven Blaney, Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Pierre Lemieux, Deepak Obhrai, Erin O'Toole, Rick Peterson, Lisa Raitt, Andrew Saxton, Andrew Scheer and Brad Trost. Additionally, four other candidates withdrew, including Kevin O'Leary, who remained on the final ballot.
Voting was conducted using a ranked ballot; however votes were calculated so that each electoral district had equal weight with each electoral district allocated 100 points. [3] 259,010 party members were eligible to vote in the leadership contest. [4] 141,000 members cast a vote.
Andrew Scheer was elected leader on the thirteen ballot, narrowly defeating second-place finisher Maxime Bernier. Many considered Scheer's victory as an upset, given Bernier's consistent frontrunner status in the polls. [5]
Stephen Harper, who led the Conservative Party of Canada as its leader from 2004 following the merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties. Harper led the party through five federal elections: the party increased its seat count in the House of Commons in 2004, formed two minority governments in 2006, and 2008, and then a majority government in 2011. Following the defeat of the party in the 2015 federal election on October 19, Harper tendered his resignation as party leader. [6] In a statement, Conservative Party President John Walsh said he had spoken to Harper, "and he has instructed me to reach out to the newly elected parliamentary caucus to appoint an interim Leader and to implement the leadership selection process." [6]
Conservative Party president John Walsh's letter to caucus stated that only Members of Parliament (MPs) would vote for the interim leader, but Conservative Senators pointed out that the party constitution states that the entire parliamentary caucus votes. [7] [8] The caucus allowed senators to vote, declining to adopt the provisions of the Reform Act that would have only allowed MPs to vote. [9] [10]
The caucus chose Rona Ambrose, MP for Sturgeon River—Parkland, Alberta and former Minister of Health, as interim leader at its first meeting on November 5, 2015, in a vote by preferential ballot. [11] [12] [13] Ambrose, as the interim leader, also served as Leader of the Official Opposition in the Parliament of Canada until a permanent leader was chosen. She defeated Candice Bergen, Diane Finley, Mike Lake, Rob Nicholson, Erin O'Toole, and the joint ticket of Denis Lebel and Michelle Rempel in the caucus vote. [14] [15] [16] [13] [17]
Under the party's constitution, Ambrose, as the interim leader, could not run for the permanent position. [15]
Following Harper's resignation, debate emerged within the Conservative Party regarding the timing of the leadership election. Some members of the party's national council called for a leadership convention as early as May 2016 according to Maclean's magazine. [18] However, interim leader Rona Ambrose said there was a consensus among the party's caucus that the leadership election should not be rushed and should be held sometime in 2017. [19] [20] [21] In a December 2015 interview, Ambrose said the party would take its time allowing all members, including those not already involved in politics, to build a strong candidacy. "If we take a little extra time, that will mean we'll have a better leadership race." [22]
The Conservative Party's Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC) met at Toronto's Albany Club January 15–17, 2016 to discuss the process for the Party to elect its next leader. Among its decisions, LEOC selected May 27, 2017, for Conservative Party members to elect their next leader. [23]
Subsequent to the election, fourth placed candidate Brad Trost and his campaign were fined $50,000 by the Conservative Party of Canada for allegedly leaking the party's membership list to the National Firearms Association. Trost denied that he or any of his staff leaked the list. [24] On February 11, 2019, the Conservative Party released a statement from its Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC) which concluded: "In short, LEOC does not believe there is evidence that the Trost Campaign was responsible for leaking of the membership list...." [25] The fine was therefore removed from the Brad Trost Campaign. Trost went on to lose renomination as the party candidate for his riding during the 43rd Federal election on March 10, 2018, to Corey Tochor, former speaker of the Saskatchewan Legislature. [26]
Criticism has been raised about how the party memberships were handled, with some prominent members saying they never received a ballot, even after contacting the party about it. [27]
In addition, the result of the leadership race and party handling was questioned by some supporters of such as runner-up Maxime Bernier and fifth place candidate Kellie Leitch due to discrepancies in the final ballot count, specifically a gap between the number of ballots cast and the announced result – a 7,466 vote discrepancy, which is greater than Andrew Scheer's 7,049 votes margin of victory in the final round. There was criticism over the exact role of the accounting firm Deloitte during the voting process – a deal revealed that Deloitte was not specifically tasked with auditing the vote but "observe" the counting process. [28] [29] It was also reported that some of Brad Trost's supporters contravened the Elections Act and party membership rules by offering incentives to vote. Dimitri Soudas, a former Stephen Harper aide, pointed out that it violated election rules and it benefited Scheer's campaign but the ballots have been destroyed so the results stood. [30]
Only party members in good standing at 5pm Eastern Time on March 28, 2017, were allowed to vote. [2] [31] The fee for a party membership was raised from $15 to $25, an increase that was reversed on April 23, 2016, after criticisms that the move was "elitist". [32] Membership fees could only be paid via personal cheque or credit card. Cash payments were not permitted. This new requirement was intended to prevent the election being dominated by new members, and to prevent anyone other than the individual member, such as a candidate's campaign, from signing up scores of members and paying the membership fees in cash out of campaign funds. [33] Despite this, the Conservative Party confirmed irregularities with 1,351 memberships connected to prepaid credit cards that it subsequently struck from its membership roll. [34]
Voting was on a one member one vote basis using a ranked ballot; however votes were calculated so that each electoral district had equal weight with each electoral district allocated 100 points. [3] Candidates were assigned a point total based on his or her percentage of the vote in each electoral district. To win, a candidate must receive at least 16,901 points which would be a majority. [2] [35]
To register, candidates must: [2]
A party committee reviewed the candidate's nomination form and may disqualify a potential candidate. [38] Candidates are allowed to spend a maximum of $5 million on their campaigns. [39]
Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 | Round 8 | Round 9 | Round 10 | Round 11 | Round 12 | Round 13 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | Points | % | |
Andrew Scheer | 7,375.79 | 21.82% | 7,383.69 | 21.85% | 7,427.00 | 21.97% | 7,455.34 | 22.06% | 7,492.06 | 22.17% | 7,597.28 | 22.48% | 7,764.64 | 22.97% | 8,061.08 | 23.85% | 8,798.38 | 26.03% | 9,557.67 | 28.28% | 10,235.27 | 30.28% | 12,965.47 | 38.36% | 17,222.20 | 50.95% |
Maxime Bernier | 9,763.32 | 28.89% | 9,823.57 | 29.06% | 9,854.61 | 29.16% | 9,922.23 | 29.36% | 10,114.67 | 29.93% | 10,208.33 | 30.20% | 10,313.15 | 30.51% | 10,557.48 | 31.24% | 10,709.58 | 31.69% | 11,570.59 | 34.23% | 12,360.08 | 36.57% | 13,647.14 | 40.38% | 16,577.80 | 49.05% |
Erin O'Toole | 3,600.72 | 10.65% | 3,609.15 | 10.68% | 3,634.90 | 10.75% | 3,669.07 | 10.86% | 3,708.41 | 10.97% | 3,769.09 | 11.15% | 3,824.62 | 11.32% | 4,181.26 | 12.37% | 4,324.01 | 12.79% | 4,947.86 | 14.64% | 6,372.85 | 18.85% | 7,187.38 | 21.26% | ||
Brad Trost | 2,820.87 | 8.35% | 2,826.57 | 8.36% | 2,829.77 | 8.37% | 2,834.43 | 8.39% | 2,843.35 | 8.41% | 2,852.31 | 8.44% | 2,862.22 | 8.47% | 2,883.76 | 8.53% | 4,340.70 | 12.84% | 4,633.83 | 13.71% | 4,831.80 | 14.30% | ||||
Michael Chong | 2,552.47 | 7.55% | 2,572.68 | 7.61% | 2,583.56 | 7.64% | 2,605.63 | 7.71% | 2,618.63 | 7.75% | 2,666.15 | 7.89% | 2,692.83 | 7.97% | 2,907.60 | 8.60% | 2,939.29 | 8.70% | 3,090.04 | 9.14% | ||||||
Kellie Leitch | 2,366.09 | 7.00% | 2,375.00 | 7.03% | 2,383.03 | 7.05% | 2,398.07 | 7.09% | 2,430.25 | 7.19% | 2,454.84 | 7.26% | 2,516.67 | 7.45% | 2,615.63 | 7.74% | 2,688.03 | 7.95% | ||||||||
Pierre Lemieux | 2,495.71 | 7.38% | 2,498.29 | 7.39% | 2,503.92 | 7.41% | 2,510.33 | 7.43% | 2,518.29 | 7.45% | 2,538.17 | 7.51% | 2,561.77 | 7.58% | 2,593.18 | 7.67% | ||||||||||
Lisa Raitt | 1,127.93 | 3.34% | 1,137.56 | 3.37% | 1,164.85 | 3.45% | 1,188.15 | 3.52% | 1,208.97 | 3.58% | 1,244.56 | 3.68% | 1,264.10 | 3.74% | ||||||||||||
Steven Blaney | 426.37 | 1.26% | 429.13 | 1.27% | 433.00 | 1.28% | 440.71 | 1.30% | 448.37 | 1.33% | 469.25 | 1.39% | ||||||||||||||
Chris Alexander | 379.10 | 1.12% | 385.01 | 1.14% | 391.05 | 1.16% | 407.47 | 1.21% | 417.00 | 1.23% | ||||||||||||||||
Kevin O'Leary | 361.21 | 1.07% | 364.74 | 1.08% | 367.33 | 1.09% | 368.56 | 1.09% | ||||||||||||||||||
Rick Peterson | 220.58 | 0.65% | 223.09 | 0.66% | 226.96 | 0.67% | ||||||||||||||||||||
Andrew Saxton | 169.94 | 0.50% | 171.50 | 0.51% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Deepak Obhrai | 139.90 | 0.41% |
Province | Alexander | Bernier | Blaney | Chong | Leitch | Lemieux | Obhrai | O'Leary | O'Toole | Peterson | Raitt | Saxton | Scheer | Trost |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alberta | 0.56% | 35.54% | 0.34% | 4.63% | 5.95% | 6.04% | 1.09% | 1.52% | 10.24% | 0.57% | 1.77% | 0.28% | 23.65% | 7.79% |
British Columbia | 0.70% | 24.81% | 0.34% | 9.60% | 7.79% | 7.30% | 0.34% | 1.07% | 12.50% | 1.04% | 2.88% | 1.46% | 20.02% | 10.15% |
Manitoba | 0.41% | 28.40% | 0.59% | 5.75% | 7.25% | 13.94% | 0.12% | 1.43% | 13.78% | 0.67% | 2.58% | 0.27% | 17.97% | 6.84% |
New Brunswick | 0.53% | 22.09% | 0.62% | 8.03% | 7.51% | 7.14% | 0.03% | 0.74% | 14.31% | 0.84% | 8.94% | 1.46% | 22.58% | 5.17% |
Newfoundland and Labrador | 0.32% | 29.79% | 0.35% | 8.00% | 14.09% | 6.93% | 0.77% | 0.29% | 10.92% | 0.66% | 5.55% | 0.91% | 16.17% | 5.25% |
Northwest Territories | 0.75% | 33.83% | 0.00% | 10.53% | 9.02% | 4.51% | 1.50% | 0.75% | 11.28% | 3.76% | 5.26% | 0.00% | 17.29% | 1.50% |
Nova Scotia | 0.82% | 21.83% | 0.17% | 8.29% | 7.07% | 5.29% | 0.30% | 0.75% | 17.25% | 0.73% | 13.98% | 1.02% | 16.98% | 5.52% |
Nunavut | 0.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 12.50% | 6.25% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6.25% | 0.00% | 6.25% | 0.00% | 18.75% | 0.00% |
Ontario | 1.78% | 24.41% | 0.39% | 10.85% | 7.56% | 9.20% | 0.51% | 1.35% | 12.08% | 0.50% | 3.89% | 0.27% | 16.21% | 11.00% |
Prince Edward Island | 0.52% | 15.13% | 0.52% | 7.97% | 6.38% | 8.06% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 16.87% | 0.30% | 6.93% | 2.43% | 29.42% | 4.87% |
Quebec | 1.12% | 39.38% | 4.24% | 3.55% | 5.99% | 4.43% | 0.16% | 0.64% | 5.92% | 0.73% | 1.09% | 0.22% | 27.68% | 4.86% |
Saskatchewan | 0.15% | 18.16% | 0.13% | 2.10% | 3.92% | 7.93% | 0.07% | 0.76% | 6.83% | 0.19% | 1.42% | 0.18% | 47.54% | 10.63% |
Yukon | 0.94% | 21.70% | 0.31% | 9.75% | 5.66% | 4.40% | 0.00% | 0.94% | 21.70% | 1.57% | 13.84% | 0.31% | 14.15% | 4.72% |
According to raw voting figures, Scheer received 62,593 votes on the final ballot compared to 55,544 votes for Bernier with 23,000 voters who had voted in the first round ranking neither Scheer or Bernier in their ranked ballot. Votes were apportioned among ridings so that each riding was allocated 100 points, regardless of the number of voters, resulting in 17,222.20 points (50.95%) for Scheer and 16,577.80 points (49.05%) for Bernier. [57]
No. | Date | Time | Place | Host | Participants | |||||||||||||||||
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P Participant N Non-invitee A Absent invitee O Out of race (exploring or withdrawn) | Alexander | Bernier | Blaney | Chong | Leitch | Lemieux | Lindsay | Obhrai | O'Leary | O'Toole | Peterson | Raitt | Saxton | Scheer | Snow | Trost | ||||||
Conservative Party of Canada leadership election debates | ||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | November 9, 2016 | 6 p.m. CST | Delta Bessborough Saskatoon, SK | Conservative Party of Canada | P | P | P | P | P | N | P | P | O | P | N | P | P | P | N | P | ||
2 | November 13, 2016 | 1 p.m. EST | Orchard View Wedding & Event Center Greely, ON | Carleton Conservative Electoral District Association (EDA) | P | P | A | P | A | N | A | P | O | P | N | P | P | P | N | P | ||
3 | December 6, 2016 | 7:30 p.m. AST | Crowne Plaza Moncton, NB | Conservative Party of Canada | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | P | P | P | P | N | P | ||
4 | January 17, 2017 | 6:30 p.m. EST | Hôtel Hilton Quebec City, QC | Conservative Party of Canada | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | O | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
5 | January 19, 2017 | 6:30 p.m. CST | Metropolitan Entertainment Centre Winnipeg, MB | Elmwood—Transcona Conservative EDA | A | P | P | P | A | P | O | P | N | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
6 | February 4, 2017 | 6 p.m. EST | The Westin Nova Scotian Halifax, NS | Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
7 | February 13, 2017 | 7 p.m. EST | Holiday Inn Express & Suites Montreal Airport Montreal, QC | Lac-Saint-Louis Conservative EDA Pierrefonds—Dollard Conservative EDA | P | P | P | P | P | N | O | A | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | N | ||
8 | February 19, 2017 | 1 p.m. EST | Vogue Theatre Vancouver, BC | Vancouver Centre Conservative Association | P | A | P | P | A | A | O | A | A | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
9 | February 24, 2017 | 3 p.m. EST | Shaw Centre Ottawa, ON | Manning Centre | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
10 | February 28, 2017 | 6 p.m. MST | Citadel Theatre Edmonton, AB | Conservative Party of Canada | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | A | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
11 | March 1, 2017 | 7 p.m. MST | Deerfoot Inn and Casino Calgary, AB | Calgary Centre Conservative EDA | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | A | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
12 | March 24, 2017 | 7 p.m. EDT | Komoka Wellness & Recreation Centre London, ON | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Conservative EDA | P | A | P | P | A | P | O | A | A | P | P | P | A | P | O | P | ||
13 | April 2, 2017 | 2 p.m. EDT | Eglinton Theatre Eglinton, ON | Eglinton—Lawrence Conservative EDA | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | A | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
14 | April 3–5, 2017 | 5 p.m. EDT | 9 Channel Nine Court Toronto, ON | CTV News | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
15 | April 26, 2017 | 6 p.m. EDT | St. Lawrence Centre for the Arts Toronto, ON | Conservative Party of Canada | P | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | O | P | P | P | P | P | O | P | ||
16 | May 6, 2017 | 2 p.m. EDT | Royal Canadian Legion Branch 586 South Bruce Peninsula, ON | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Conservative EDA | P | A | A | P | P | P | O | A | O | A | A | P | A | P | O | A |
Candidates who have paid their entrance fee and compliance deposit and filed their nomination papers: [58]
Chris Alexander, 48, is the former Minister of Citizenship and Immigration (2013–2015), Parliamentary Secretary to Minister of National Defence (2011– 2013) [59] and the former MP for Ajax—Pickering, Ontario (2011–2015). Prior to entering politics, he served as a member of Canada's foreign diplomatic service, most notably in the Canadian Embassy in Moscow and as the Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005. [60] From 2005 to 2009 he held the post of Deputy Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary General for Afghanistan. [61] In addition to English, he is fluent in both French and Russian languages. [62] [63]
Chris Alexander has 40 detailed published policies that fall into three main categories: New Economy, New Country and New Role. These policies include how Canada should approach: employment, taxation, innovation, families, education, competitiveness, energy self-reliance, cities, agriculture, poverty, homelessness, First Nations peoples, the Métis, refugees, the Monarchy, justice, health care, protecting wilderness, forestry, mining, international diplomacy, terrorism, democratic reform, cyber-security, Canadian culture, northern development, and national defence. [66]
He believes that immigration is the key to "economic growth." [59] Is proposing to increase immigration to 400,000 a year [59] including 40,000 refugees and calling for doubling defence spending and "for an accelerated push to settle all outstanding land claims and to sign treaties with First Nations communities that would empower them to govern themselves". [64] Was prominent in the Conservative government's handling of the Syrian refugee crisis and in the government's promise during the 2015 election to create a telephone tip line to report so-called "barbaric cultural practices." [67] As minister, he was criticized over delays in meeting the government's commitment to resettle Syrian refugees. [68]
Maxime Bernier, 54, was the MP for Beauce, Quebec (2006–2019) and was the Shadow Minister of Innovation (2015–2016). He served in the Harper government as Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism (2011–2015), Minister of Foreign Affairs (2007–2008), and Minister of Industry (2006–2007), [69] [70] [71] [72] Bernier is considered an advocate of limited government and has been compared to a Libertarian. [59] [73] [74] [75] He has been nicknamed "Mad Max", the "Bloc-buster", or the "Albertan from Quebec" by his Ottawa colleagues. [76] [77] [78] Prior to entering federal politics in 2006, Bernier, a lawyer by training, was vice-president of the Standard Life of Canada Insurance company, MEI, and manager of corporate and international relations at the Commission des valeurs mobilières du Québec. [79]
Steven Blaney, 52, was the Shadow Minister of Public Works and Government Services (2015–2016) for the Conservative Opposition, and is the former Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness (2013–2015), Minister of Veterans Affairs (2011–2013). He is the MP for Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis, Quebec (2015–present) and Lévis—Bellechasse, Quebec (2006–2015).
Michael Chong, 45, is the MP for Wellington—Halton Hills, Ontario (2004–present) and was the Deputy Shadow Minister of the Environment (2015–2016). He was Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Youth (2006) [59] and Minister of Sport (2006). Chong resigned from the Harper cabinet in 2006 to protest the government's recognition of the Québécois as a nation within Canada. [59] As a backbench MP he advocated democratic reforms in Parliament to limit the power of the Prime Minister's Office and party leaders over their caucuses and individual MPs and introduced the Reform Act to give caucuses the option of the power to remove party leaders, elect caucus chairs, and expel or readmit MPs, and elect interim leaders. [9] [163] [164] [165] He was a member of the Progressive Conservative Party at the time of the merger. [59]
Kellie Leitch, 46, was the MP for Simcoe—Grey, Ontario (2011–2019) and Shadow Minister of Health (2015–2016). In the Harper cabinet, she was Minister of Labour and the Status of Women (2013–2015). [59] [71] [72] [199] [200] [201] [202] She is an orthopaedic pediatric surgeon at SickKids Hospital and an associate professor at the University of Toronto. [59] [203]
Pierre Lemieux, 54, is the former MP for Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, Ontario (2006–2015). In the Harper government he was the Parliamentary Secretary for Official Languages (2007–2008), Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Agriculture (2008–2015), and Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Veterans Affairs (2015). [225]
Deepak Obhrai, 66, was the MP for Calgary Forest Lawn, Alberta (2015–2019), and represented Calgary East, Alberta (1997–2015), was Shadow Minister of International Development (2015–2016), and was the Dean of the Conservative Caucus. In the Harper government he was the Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs (2006–2015). [229] [230] [231] Obhrai was a member of the Canadian Alliance at the time of the merger.
Erin O'Toole, 44, is the MP for Durham, Ontario (2012–present) and was Shadow Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness (2015–2016) for the Conservative Party in Opposition. Previously, he served as Minister of Veterans Affairs (2015). [237] [238]
O'Toole policies wants to give tax credits for youth underemployment and student debt. [59] He wants to restructure temporary foreign worker and provincial nominee programs. [59]
Rick Peterson, 61, is a venture capitalist, party fundraiser, the principal of Peterson Capital, and a former candidate for leadership of the British Columbia Conservative Party. [59] [286] He was a member of the Progressive Conservatives at the time of the merger. [287]
Lisa Raitt, 49, was the MP for Milton, Ontario (2015–2019), previously Halton, Ontario (2008–2015) and the former Shadow Minister of Finance (2015–2016), Minister of Transport (2013–2015), Minister of Labour (2010–2013), Minister of Natural Resources (2008–2010), President and CEO of the Toronto Port Authority (2002–2008). [69] [72] [200] [299] Stepped down from shadow cabinet on October 14, 2016, to prepare for leadership bid. [300]
Canadian Taxpayers Federation's Generation Screwed project [131]
Andrew Saxton, 53, is the former Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance (2013–2015), Parliamentary Secretary to the President of the Treasury Board and for Western Economic Diversification (2011–2013), MP for North Vancouver (2008–2015), former chief executive officer of King George Financial Corporation. [330]
Saxton's campaign is an economic platform. [59] He plans on lowering taxes and balancing the budget. [59]
Andrew Scheer, 38, Opposition House Leader (2015–2016), MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle, Saskatchewan (2004–present), Speaker of the House of Commons (2011–2015). [59] Scheer was a member of the Canadian Alliance at the time of the merger.
Running as an "unapologetic" Conservative who can unite all wings of the party. [379] [380] He is "committed" to lower taxes, [59] fiscal responsibility, [59] and "compassion". Scheer believes that there should be a "more robust screening process." [381] Scheer is pro-life, but doesn't intend to bring any legislation on the topic. [381] Scheer advocates for immigration based process, economic indicators, and "what our society needs." [68]
Brad Trost, 43, was the MP for Saskatoon—University, (2015–2019) and Saskatoon—Humboldt (2004–2015) previously. He was appointed Official Opposition Critic for Canada-U.S. Relations (2015–2016) following the 2015 election. Prior to election, Trost worked as an exploration geophysicist (prospector) in natural resources extraction in the north. He was also an active participant in his family's mixed grain, oilseeds and beef cattle farm operation. In his first Parliament, he founded the Conservative Party Energy Caucus and pushed for the re-creation of the Standing Committee on Natural Resources. He has served on the Standing Committees on International Trade and on Industry, and was elected vice-chair of the Canada-U.S. Parliamentary Association. [382]
Tony Clement, 56, is the MP for Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ontario (2006–2019) and has been Shadow Minister of Foreign Affairs (2015–2016), President of the Treasury Board (2011–2015), Minister of Industry (2008–2011), Minister of Health (2006–2008), and a 2004 leadership candidate, placing third. He was an MPP in the Ontario legislature (1995–2003) and a provincial cabinet minister (1997–2003) under Premiers Mike Harris and Ernie Eves. Clement also ran for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario in 2002, placing third. [69] [71] [72] [199] [388]
Daniel Lindsay, 60, president of the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Manitoba, radiologist, has done five tours as a civilian medical specialist with the Canadian Armed Forces, including in Kandahar, Afghanistan. [397]
Kevin O'Leary, 62, is a businessman, investor, journalist, writer, financial commentator and Emmy award-winning television personality. [72] [402] [403] [404]
O'Leary supported using a "big stick" federally in order to bring provincial governments in-line with federal policies, cutting waste in military spending, supports a peacekeeping role for the military, cutting carbon emissions through criminal sanctions rather than a carbon tax, supports current immigration policy but also wishes to "fast-track" the citizenship applications of skilled immigrants, [416] [417] asserted he would support LGBTQI people, legalize marijuana and defend reproductive rights. [3]
Adrienne Snow, 49, Toronto-based communications consultant, former director of policy for National Foundation for Family Research and Education. Former executive director of Centre for the Study of Civic Renewal. Announced on August 23, 2016, that she intended to be a candidate but failed to register and announced in January that she was ending her campaign. [419]
Some of the polls below were conducted before nominations for the leadership closed and therefore include potential candidates for the leadership race. Rona Ambrose, as interim leader, is ineligible to run for the permanent leadership unless there is a change to the party's constitution.
Polling firm/Link | Last date of polling | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Alexander | Maxime Bernier | Steven Blaney | Michael Chong | Kellie Leitch | Pierre Lemieux | Kevin O'Leary | Erin O'Toole | Lisa Raitt | Andrew Scheer | Brad Trost | Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual results | May 27, 2017 | N/A | 1.12% | 28.89% (49.05%) | 1.26% | 7.55% | 7.00% | 7.38% | 1.07% | 10.65% | 3.34% | 21.82% (50.95%) | 8.35% | Rick Peterson 0.65% Andrew Saxton 0.50% | |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | May 23, 2017 [446] | 12,840 | ±0.84% | 0.70% | 31.30% | 0.70% | 9.50% | 6.80% | 6.00% | — | 12.90% | 3.50% | 17.20% | 5.10% | Undecided 4.80% Rick Peterson 0.70% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | May 14, 2017 [447] | 9,111 | ±1.01% | 1.14% | 28.41% | 1.10% | 7.73% | 6.22% | 5.00% | — | 15.20% | 4.31% | 19.54% | 3.74% | Undecided 5.96% Rick Peterson 0.72% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | May 7, 2017 [448] | 12,170 | ±0.87% | 0.88% | 26.26% | 1.09% | 7.30% | 6.55% | 5.45% | — | 13.55% | 4.15% | 20.11% | 3.26% | Undecided 9.18% Rick Peterson 1.10% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | May 2, 2017 [449] | 1009 | ±3.09% | 1.89% | 31.18% | 1.89% | 4.18% | 8.17% | 4.18% | — | 11.25% | 5.48% | 22.01% | 3.59% | Undecided 4.48% Rick Peterson 0.8% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | April 22, 2017 [450] | 2135 | ±2.1% | 2.11% | 19.63% | 1.31% | 7.08% | 11.76% | 4.36% | — | 10.26% | 7.31% | 18.83% | 4.73% | Undecided 10.96% Rick Peterson >0.47% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | April 22, 2017 | 2135 | ±2.1% | 1.36% | 14.19% | 0.89% | 5.53% | 6.60% | 4.17% | 26.32% | 7.82% | 4.87% | 16.72% | 4.73% | Undecided 5.62% Rick Peterson 0.47% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | April 13, 2017 | 1740 | ±2.35% | 1.32% | 19.02% | 2.30% | 5.98% | 7.70% | 2.07% | 23.16% | 10.46% | 6.38% | 13.10% | 0.11% | Undecided 5.17% Rick Peterson 1.03% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | April 6, 2017 | 1864 | ±2.25% | 2.52% | 16.84% | 2.41% | 6.76% | 9.28% | 1.18% | 22.14% | 9.22% | 6.92% | 13.73% | 1.55% | Undecided 6.17% Rick Peterson 0.11% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | March 31, 2017 | 1776 | ±2.32% | 1.41% | 16.44% | 2.42% | 7.55% | 8.90% | 2.42% | 23.59% | 9.91% | 6.31% | 13.12% | 1.91% | Undecided 5.74% Rick Peterson 0% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | March 24, 2017 | 1670 | ±2.38% | 1.92% | 17.66% | 2.16% | 4.07% | 8.68% | 3.53% | 24.85% | 6.53% | 7.66% | 12.34% | 2.46% | Undecided 7.25% Rick Peterson 0.42% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | March 19, 2017 | 1105 | ±2.8% | 3.05% | 14.73% | 2.70% | 5.48% | 16.89% | 1.53% | 22.10% | 2.88% | 7.82% | 9.16% | 1.62% | Undecided 11.05% Deepak Obhrai 0.45% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | March 11, 2017 | 1607 | ±2.26% | 1.97% | 19.29% | 2.55% | 3.73% | 8.53% | 2.18% | 23.65% | 4.23% | 7.78% | 10.33% | 3.24% | Undecided 11.45% Andrew Saxton 0.68% Deepak Obhrai 0.25% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | March 4, 2017 | 839 | ±3.37% | 2.15% | 19.07% | 2.38% | 3.81% | 6.32% | 2.26% | 23.96% | 2.62% | 7.15% | 7.87% | 2.15% | Undecided 18.12% Andrew Saxton 1.07% Deepak Obhrai 0.60% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | February 24, 2017 | 1,457 | ±2.55% | 1.99% | 18.91% | 3.51% | 3.71% | 7.50% | 1.93% | 22.49% | 4.47% | 7.29% | 7.36% | 1.79% | Undecided 17.95% Andrew Saxton 0.55% Rick Peterson 0.34% Deepak Obhrai 0.21% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | February 17, 2017 | 1,894 | ± 2.24% | 2.8% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 20.9% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 1.1% | Undecided 7.0% Deepak Obhrai 1.8% Rick Peterson 1.6% Andrew Saxton 0.8% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | February 12, 2017 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 6.09% | 17.54% | 1.24% | 2.86% | 20.90% | 2.36% | 22.01% | 3.36% | 3.48% | 4.60% | 1.74% | Undecided 11.82% Andrew Saxton 0.75% Deepak Obhrai 0.62% Rick Peterson 0.62% |
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics | February 3, 2017 | 5,487 | ± 1.3% | 8.9% | 16.55% | 3.95% | 4.55% | 10.83% | 2.24% | 24.75% | 3.06% | 6.35% | 4.57% | 1.89% | Undecided 10.63% Andrew Saxton 0.62% Deepak Obhrai 0.55% Rick Peterson 0.55% |
Forum Research | January 21, 2017 | 111 | ± 3.0% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 5% | 7% | — | 31% | — | 14% | 8% | — | Someone else 18% |
Forum Research | December 7, 2016 | 65 | ± 3.0% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 8% | — | — | — | 12% | 2% | 5% | Someone else 48% |
Forum Research | May 11, 2016 | 118 | ± 3.0% | — | — | 11% | — | 4% | — | 23% | — | 2% | — | — | Someone else 23% Peter MacKay 16% Rona Ambrose 12% Jason Kenney 9% |
Forum Research | April 5, 2016 | 112 | ± 3.0% | — | — | 9% | — | 1% | — | 28% | — | 2% | — | — | Someone else 24% Peter MacKay 20% Rona Ambrose 9% Jason Kenney 7% |
Polling firm/Link | Last date of polling | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Alexander | Maxime Bernier | Steven Blaney | Michael Chong | Kellie Leitch | Pierre Lemieux | Kevin O'Leary | Erin O'Toole | Lisa Raitt | Andrew Scheer | Brad Trost | Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probit Inc. | May 11, 2017 | 2,042 | ± 2.17% | 1% | 45% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 2% | 1% (Write-in) | 8% | 9% | 11% | 1% | Rona Ambrose (write-in) 1% Rick Peterson 1% Other 1% |
Ipsos/Global News | January 25, 2017 | 190 | ± 3.5% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 60% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | Andrew Saxton 5% Deepak Obhrai 1% Rick Peterson 1% |
Forum Research | January 21, 2017 | 434 | ± 3.0% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 3% | — | 50% | — | 7% | 5% | — | Someone else 21% |
Forum Research | December 7, 2016 | 415 | ± 3.0% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 6% | — | — | — | 8% | 5% | 2% | Someone else 49% |
Mainstreet Research | November 6, 2016 | 1,478 | ± 2.55% | 2% | 11% | 1% | 12% | 19% | — | — | 11% | 4% | 14% | 3% | Undecided 18% Deepak Obhrai 3% Dan Lindsay 0% Andrew Saxton 0% |
Forum Research | October 12, 2016 | 355 | ± 3.0% | 3% | 17% | — | 6% | 6% | — | — | 2% | — | 6% | 4% | Someone else 41% Tony Clement 14% |
Mainstreet Research | September 8, 2016 | 1,564 | ± 2.48% | — | 6% | — | 7% | 15% | — | — | 9% | 3% | 9% | — | Peter MacKay 19% Undecided 12% Tony Clement 12% Someone else 7% Deepak Obhrai 1% |
Forum Research | August 6, 2016 | 1,345 | ± 4.9% | — | 10% | — | 5% | 4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | Tony Clement 18% Deepak Obhrai 3% |
Probit Inc. | June 9, 2016 | 2,212 | ± 2.08% | — | 11% | — | 3% | 1% | — | 21% | — | 5% | — | — | Peter MacKay 27% Jason Kenney 17% Rona Ambrose (write-in) 4% Tony Clement 3% Doug Ford 3% Michelle Rempel 3% Other 3% |
Forum Research | May 11, 2016 | 420 | ± 3.0% | — | 6% | — | — | 3% | — | 27% | — | 2% | — | — | Peter MacKay 23% Someone else 17% Rona Ambrose 16% Jason Kenney 6% |
Mainstreet Research | April 27, 2016 | 1,676 | ± 2.4% | — | 6% | — | 3% | 2% | — | 20% | — | 1% | — | — | Rona Ambrose 26% Peter MacKay 16% Undecided 10% Tony Clement 7% Jason Kenney 6% Someone else 3% |
— | 8% | — | 5% | 4% | — | 22% | — | 3% | — | — | Peter MacKay 23% Undecided 16% Tony Clement 8% Jason Kenney 7% Someone else 4% | ||||
EKOS | April 15, 2016 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | — | 4% | — | — | 2% | — | 17% | — | 5% | — | — | Stephen Harper 28% Peter MacKay 23% Someone else 17% Don't know 5% |
Forum Research | April 5, 2016 | 1,455 | ± 3.0% | — | 5% | — | — | 1% | — | 24% | — | 4% | — | — | Peter MacKay 22% Someone else 19% Rona Ambrose 17% Jason Kenney 8% |
Abacus Data | March 18 2016 | 1,500 | ± 2.6% | — | 5% | — | 5% | 1% | — | 27% | — | 8% | — | — | Peter MacKay 36% Jason Kenney 12% Tony Clement 6% |
Mainstreet Research | January 15, 2016 | 4,937 | ± 1.4% | — | 4% | — | — | 3% | — | 23% | — | 4% | — | — | Undecided 29% Peter MacKay 22% Jason Kenney 8% Someone else 3% |
Abacus Data | January 12, 2016 | 1,500 | ± 2.6% | — | 5% | — | — | 4% | — | — | — | 13% | — | — | Peter MacKay 42% Jason Kenney 19% Tony Clement 13% Bernard Lord 5% |
Abacus Data | November 25, 2015 | 360 | ± 2.6% | — | 6% | — | 3% | 3% | — | — | — | 8% | — | — | Peter MacKay 35% Brad Wall 17% Jason Kenney 12% Jean Charest 11% Doug Ford 4% |
Forum Research | November 7, 2015 | 334 | ± 3.0% | — | — | — | — | 4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | Peter MacKay 32% John Baird 18% Jason Kenney 16% Rona Ambrose 12% Michelle Rempel 7% Tony Clement 7% Rob Nicholson 4% |
Polling firm/Link | Last date of polling | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Alexander | Maxime Bernier | Steven Blaney | Michael Chong | Kellie Leitch | Pierre Lemieux | Kevin O'Leary | Erin O'Toole | Lisa Raitt | Andrew Scheer | Brad Trost | Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nanos research | February 9, 2017 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | <1% | 8.5% | 2% | 9.2% | 2% | — | 15% | 2% | 7.1% | 2% | <1% | Someone else 34% |
Ipsos | January 25, 2017 | 1,000 | ± 3.5% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 24% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 1% | Andrew Saxton 3% Deepak Obhrai 2% Rick Peterson 1% |
Forum Research | January 21, 2017 | 1,332 | ± 3.0% | 3% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 2% | — | 27% | — | 7% | 4% | — | Someone else 38% |
Forum Research | December 7, 2016 | 1,304 | ± 3.0% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 7% | — | — | — | 8% | 3% | 2% | Someone else 53% |
Forum Research | October 12, 2016 | 1,143 | ± 3.0% | 3% | 14% | — | 7% | 4% | — | — | 3% | — | 5% | 2% | Someone else 54% Tony Clement 9% |
Ipsos | September 8, 2016 | 1,000 | ± 3.5% | — | 15% | — | 5% | 2% | — | 25% | 2% | 7% | — | — | Peter MacKay 26% Candice Bergen 10% Tony Clement 8% |
Forum Research | May 11, 2016 | 1,517 | ± 3.0% | — | 9% | — | — | 3% | — | 14% | — | 4% | — | — | Someone else 35% Peter MacKay 18% Rona Ambrose 11% Jason Kenney 6% |
EKOS | April 15, 2016 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | — | 6% | — | — | 3% | — | 9% | — | 4% | — | — | Someone else 36% Peter MacKay 20% Don't know 13% Stephen Harper 11% |
Forum Research | April 5, 2016 | 1,455 | ± 3.0% | — | 9% | — | — | 2% | — | 14% | — | 6% | — | — | Someone else 35% Peter MacKay 18% Rona Ambrose 10% Jason Kenney 6% |
Abacus Data | March 18, 2016 | 1,500 | ± 2.6% | — | 10% | — | 6% | 3% | — | 18% | — | 12% | — | — | Peter MacKay 33% Tony Clement 9% Jason Kenney 8% |
Abacus Data | November 25, 2015 | 360 | ± 2.6% | — | 8% | — | 7% | 4% | — | — | — | 10% | — | — | Peter MacKay 31% Jean Charest 15% Jason Kenney 10% Brad Wall 9% Doug Ford 8% |
Forum Research | November 7, 2015 | 334 | ± 3.0% | — | — | — | — | 9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | Peter MacKay 29% Rona Ambrose 14% John Baird 14% Jason Kenney 11% Michelle Rempel 11% Tony Clement 7% Rob Nicholson 6% |
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