2024 Tuxedo provincial by-election

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2024 Tuxedo provincial by-election
Flag of Manitoba.svg
←  2023 June 18, 2024
Riding of Tuxedo
Turnout45.62% (Decrease2.svg 14.24 pp)
 First partySecond party
 
NDP
PC
Candidate Carla Compton Lawrence Pinsky
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative
Popular vote3,7773,175
Percentage49.44%41.56%
SwingIncrease2.svg11.95%Increase2.svg1.36%
 Third partyFourth party
 
LIB
 Janine G Gibson August 2023 (Cropped).jpg
CandidateJamie Pfau Janine Gibson
Party Liberal Green
Popular vote569118
Percentage7.45%1.54%
SwingDecrease2.svg14.85%
MLA before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

Elected MLA

Carla Compton
New Democratic

The 2024 Tuxedo provincial by-election was held on June 18. [1]

Contents

In an historic result, the NDP won the election with 49% to the PC's 42%, the first time the party has ever won the seat since its creation in 1981, and the first time a centre-left party won the area since 1945 when the NDP's predecessor, the CCF, won the Assiniboia constituency. The third-place Liberal Party's 7% vote share was the worst result the party ever received in the constituency.

Background

The riding was vacant after former Premier Heather Stefanson resigned from the Legislative Assembly on May 6, 2024. [2]

On May 20, Premier Wab Kinew announced that a by-election would be held in Tuxedo on June 18. [3]

Constituency

Tuxedo is an affluent, [4] traditionally safe Tory seat [5] in southwest Winnipeg. [6] In addition to Stefanson, it was the riding of former premier Gary Filmon. [5] The riding has voted for the Progressive Conservatives in every election since its creation in 1981. Despite the riding being considered safe, the NDP came within 268 votes of picking it up in the 2023 general election. [4]

Candidates

Progressive Conservative

A nomination meeting to determine the PC candidate was held on May 23 with family lawyer, Lawrence Pinsky winning the contested race. [7] [8] The other candidates seeking the nomination were Shannon Martin (MLA for McPhillips, 2019–2023 and Morris, 2014–2019) and Lori Shenkarow (real estate agent). [9]

Kevin Klein (MLA for Kirkfield Park, 2022–2023 and Winnipeg City Councillor for Charleswood-Tuxedo-Westwood, 2018–2022) was also considered a potential candidate, however, he ended up not running. [10]

New Democratic

On May 20, the NDP announced that they had nominated Carla Compton as the candidate for the by-election. She works as a registered nurse and was the Tuxedo candidate for the party in the 2019 election. [5]

Liberal

On May 21, The Liberals announced that their candidate would be Jamie Pfau, president of the Manitoba Foster Parent Association. [11]

Deputy leader of the party, Willard Reaves, who ran for the party in Fort Whyte in 2022 and 2023 sought the nomination before bowing out of the race and supporting Pfau. [9] [11]

Green

On May 20, it was announced that the leader of the Green Party, Janine Gibson would be the candidate for the by-election. [9]

Results

Map of by-election and 2023 general election results. Tuxedo By-Election.png
Map of by-election and 2023 general election results.
Manitoba provincial by-election, June 18, 2024: Tuxedo
Resignation of Heather Stefanson
** Preliminary results — Not yet official **
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Carla Compton 3,77749.44+11.95
Progressive Conservative Lawrence Pinsky3,17541.56+1.36
Liberal Jamie Pfau5697.45-14.85
Green Janine Gibson 1181.54
Total valid votes7,63999.58
Total rejected and declined ballots320.42+0.01
Turnout7,67145.62-14.24
Eligible voters16,814
New Democratic gain from Progressive Conservative Swing +5.30

Previous results

2023 Manitoba general election : Tuxedo
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 3,96840.21-7.65$10,145.15
New Democratic Larissa Ashdown3,70037.49+17.70$1,572.48
Liberal Marc Brandson2,20122.30-1.26$5,309.68
Total valid votes/Expense limit9,86999.60–$64,529.00
Total rejected and declined ballots400.40-0.40
Turnout9,90959.86+1.96
Eligible voters16,554
Progressive Conservative hold Swing -12.67
Source(s)
Source: Elections Manitoba [12] [13] [14]

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References

  1. ↑ "PROVINCE ANNOUNCES BY-ELECTION SET FOR JUNE 18 IN TUXEDO". Government of Manitoba . May 20, 2024. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  2. ↑ "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News . April 25, 2024. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  3. ↑ Streeter, Arin (May 20, 2024). "Premier Wab Kinew announces Tuxedo byelection". Global News . Corus Entertainment . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  4. 1 2 "Tuxedo byelection has all 4 Manitoba parties eyeing Winnipeg constituency that has only ever voted Tory blue". CBC News . June 12, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  5. 1 2 3 Streeter, Arin (May 20, 2024). "Manitoba NDP announce candidate for Tuxedo byelection". Global News . Corus Entertainment . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Pinsky running for Tories in Tuxedo byelection". Winnipeg Free Press . June 12, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  7. ↑ Froese, Ian (May 23, 2024). "Family lawyer learns he'll be running for Tories in Tuxedo byelection via FaceTime from Israel". CBC News . Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Manitoba parties line up candidates for June 18 byelection in former premier's seat". Global News . The Canadian Press. May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  9. 1 2 3 Froese, Ian (May 20, 2024). "Clock is ticking to name candidates as Manitoba NDP calls Tuxedo byelection for June 18". CBC News . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  10. ↑ Froese, Ian (May 7, 2024). "Ex-MLA Shannon Martin among PC hopefuls for Tuxedo seat vacated by Heather Stefanson". CBC News . Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  11. 1 2 "Foster parent advocate Jamie Pfau will represent Manitoba Liberals in Tuxedo byelection". CBC News . May 21, 2024. Retrieved May 21, 2024.
  12. ↑ "Summary of Votes Received" (PDF). Elections Manitoba . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ↑ "CANDIDATE ELECTION RETURNS GENERAL ELECTION 2023". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved May 7, 2024.
  14. ↑ "2023 GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATE AND REGISTERED PARTY ELECTION EXPENSE LIMITS - FINAL EXPENSE LIMIT" (PDF). Elections Manitoba . Retrieved May 4, 2024.
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