2016 Manitoba general election

2016 Manitoba general election

←  2011 April 19, 2016 (2016-04-19) 2019  →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	57.43%
First party Second party   Leader Brian Pallister Greg Selinger Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since July 30, 2012 October 17, 2009 Leader's seat Fort Whyte St. Boniface Last election 19 seats, 43.71% 37 seats, 46.16% Seats before 19 35 Seats won 40 14 Seat change 21 21 Popular vote 232,215 112,748 Percentage 53.10% 25.78% Swing 9.39% 20.38%   Third party Fourth party   Leader Rana Bokhari James Beddome Party Liberal Green Leader since October 26, 2013 November 15, 2014 Leader's seat ran in Fort Rouge (lost) ran in Fort Garry-Riverview (lost) Last election 1 seat, 7.52% 0 seats, 2.52% Seats before 1 0 Seats won 3 0 Seat change 2 Popular vote 62,973 22,188 Percentage 14.40% 5.07% Swing 6.88% 2.62%
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election Greg Selinger New Democratic Premier after election Brian Pallister Progressive Conservative

The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016, to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. ^[1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Progressive Conservatives won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats. ^[2]

The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election. ^[3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April. ^[4] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early. ^[5] The legislature was dissolved and writs for the election were dropped on March 16, 2016. ^[6]

Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting; ^[7] in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate. ^[8] Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent. ^[8]

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate. ^[7] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change. ^[9]

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

Party		Riding	Incumbent
	NDP
		Assiniboia	Jim Rondeau [10]
		Dauphin	Stan Struthers [11]
		Dawson Trail	Ron Lemieux
		Fort Rouge	Jennifer Howard
		Radisson	Bidhu Jha [12]
		St. Johns	Gord Mackintosh
		St. Vital	Nancy Allan [13]
		Seine River	Theresa Oswald
		Transcona	Daryl Reid
	Progressive Conservative
		Agassiz	Stu Briese [14]
		Riding Mountain	Leanne Rowat [14]
		River East	Bonnie Mitchelson [15]

Opinion polls

NDP   Progressive Conservative   Liberal   Green

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other
Insights West	April 18, 2016	[p 1]	28	53	10	7	1
Insightrix Research	April 18, 2016	[p 2]	22	49	19	9	1
Forum Research	April 17, 2016	[p 3]	21	52	18	9
Mainstreet Research	April 14, 2016	[p 4]	26	55	11	9
Insights West	April 7, 2016	[p 5]	26	49	17	7	1
Insightrix Research	April 7, 2016	[p 6]	24	49	22	5
Mainstreet Research	April 5, 2016	[p 7]	24	50	17	9
Probe Research Inc	April 4, 2016	[p 8]	28	46	20	6
Mainstreet Research	March 29, 2016	[p 9]	23	45	24	7
Mainstreet Research	March 19, 2016	[p 10]	24	44	24	7
Forum Research	March 13, 2016	[p 11]	22	46	23	8	1
Mainstreet Research	March 12, 2016	[p 12]	27	43	24	7
Mainstreet Research	February 20, 2016	[p 13]	21	50	23	6
Mainstreet Research	February 11, 2016	[p 14]	21	51	20	7
Mainstreet Research	January 25, 2016	[p 15]	20	52	20	9
Mainstreet Research	January 9, 2016	[p 16]	23	44	27	6
Insightrix Research	December 22, 2015	[p 17]	19	39	36	5	1
Probe Research Inc	December 15, 2015	[p 18]	22	43	29		6
Probe Research Inc	September 23, 2015	[p 19]	25	45	24		5
Probe Research Inc	June 27, 2015	[p 20]	29	46	19		5
Probe Research Inc	April 5, 2015	[p 21]	29	44	20		7
Probe Research Inc	December 12, 2014	HTML	26	48	19		7
Mainstreet Research	November 3, 2014	[p 22]	27	53	20
Probe Research Inc	October 1, 2014	[p 23]	30	42	20		8
Probe Research Inc	June 19, 2014	HTML	32	45	16		7
Probe Research Inc	March 28, 2014	[p 24]	28	46	23		3
Insightrix Research	February 7, 2014	[p 25]	24	49	18	9
Probe Research Inc	December 27, 2013	[p 26]	26	48	20		6
Probe Research Inc	September 28, 2013	[p 27]	29	43	20		8
Probe Research Inc	June 26, 2013	[p 28]	28	46	17		10
Probe Research Inc	April 14, 2013	[p 29]	35	42	15		8
Probe Research Inc	December 14, 2012	[p 29]	39	43	11		7
Probe Research Inc	October 14, 2012	[p 30]	45	38	11		6
Probe Research Inc	June 29, 2012	[p 31]	44	40	13		3
Probe Research Inc	April 4, 2012	[p 32]	40	45	10		5
2011 election	October 4, 2011		46.2	43.7	7.5	2.5	0.1
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link					Other
			NDP	PC	Liberal	Green

Results

The Tories went into the election as heavy favourites, having led opinion polls for almost four years. They scored a near-sweep of rural southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.

Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election

Party		Leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2011	Dissol.	2016	+/-	Votes	%	% change
	Progressive Conservative	Brian Pallister	57	19	19	40	+21	232,215	53.10	+9.39
	New Democratic	Greg Selinger	57	37	35	14	-21	112,748	25.78	−20.38
	Liberal	Rana Bokhari	51	1	1	3	+2	62,973	14.40	+6.88
	Green	James Beddome	30	–	–	–	–	22,188	5.07	+2.55
	Manitoba	Gary Marshall	16	–	–	–	–	4,887	1.12	n/a
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	6	–	–	–	–	305	0.07	+0.03
	Independents		4	–	–	–	–	2,032	0.46	+0.41
	Vacant [a]				2
Total			221	57	57	57		437,348

Vote and seat summaries

Ternary plots – shift of electoral support (2011–2016)

• 
  2011
• 
  2016

Electoral districts identified by colours of winning parties

Popular vote PC   53.10% New Democratic   25.78% Liberal   14.40% Green   5.07% Others   1.65%

Seats summary PC   70.18% New Democratic   24.56% Liberal   5.26%

Synopsis of results

2016 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results ^{[17] [18]}

Electoral division	Winning party										Votes
	2011		1st place		Votes	Share	Margin #	Margin %	2nd place		PC	NDP	Lib	Grn	MB	Ind	Comm	Total
Agassiz		PC		PC	5,228	74.72%	4,318	61.71%		Ind	5,228	450	–	409	–	910	–	6,997
Arthur-Virden		PC		PC	6,006	80.60%	5,160	69.24%		MB	6,006	600	–	–	846	–	–	7,452
Assiniboia		NDP		PC	3,450	43.91%	1,254	15.96%		NDP	3,450	2,196	1,631	580	–	–	–	7,857
Brandon East		NDP		PC	3,669	52.17%	1,135	16.14%		NDP	3,669	2,534	830	–	–	–	–	7,033
Brandon West		PC		PC	5,624	69.10%	3,740	45.95%		NDP	5,624	1,884	631	–	–	–	–	8,139
Burrows		NDP		Lib	2,641	46.55%	866	15.26%		NDP	1,014	1,775	2,641	216	–	–	28	5,674
Charleswood		PC		PC	5,298	60.67%	4,111	47.07%		Lib	5,298	1,168	1,187	1,080	–	–	–	8,733
Concordia		NDP		NDP	2,761	44.97%	278	4.53%		PC	2,483	2,761	642	–	254	–	–	6,140
Dauphin		NDP		PC	4,795	60.22%	2,896	36.37%		NDP	4,795	1,899	505	595	168	–	–	7,962
Dawson Trail		NDP		PC	4,430	53.53%	2,752	33.25%		NDP	4,430	1,678	1,652	–	516	–	–	8,276
Elmwood		NDP		NDP	2,993	46.35%	107	1.66%		PC	2,886	2,993	–	–	579	–	–	6,458
Emerson		PC		PC	4,943	72.71%	3,520	51.78%		Lib	4,943	432	1,423	–	–	–	–	6,798
Flin Flon		NDP		NDP	1,106	32.85%	152	4.51%		PC	954	1,106	948	–	–	359	–	3,367
Fort Garry-Riverview		NDP		NDP	3,450	37.84%	301	3.30%		PC	3,149	3,450	807	1,711	–	–	–	9,117
Fort Richmond		NDP		PC	2,879	44.24%	605	9.30%		NDP	2,879	2,274	814	540	–	–	–	6,507
Fort Rouge		NDP		NDP	3,360	37.63%	789	8.84%		PC	2,571	3,360	1,792	983	175	–	47	8,928
Fort Whyte		PC		PC	6,775	64.18%	5,057	47.91%		NDP	6,775	1,718	1,205	731	127	–	–	10,556
Gimli		NDP		PC	5,614	60.53%	3,035	32.72%		NDP	5,614	2,579	–	843	239	–	–	9,275
Interlake		NDP		PC	3,685	51.32%	1,617	22.52%		Lib	3,685	1,428	2,068	–	–	–	–	7,181
Kewatinook		NDP		Lib	1,565	49.73%	358	11.38%		NDP	375	1,207	1,565	–	–	–	–	3,147
Kildonan		NDP		PC	3,694	44.39%	629	7.56%		NDP	3,694	3,065	974	456	133	–	–	8,322
Kirkfield Park		NDP		PC	5,457	53.47%	2,382	23.34%		NDP	5,457	3,075	889	784	–	–	–	10,205
La Vérendrye		PC		PC	5,262	71.23%	4,538	61.43%		Green	5,262	705	696	724	–	–	–	7,387
Lac du Bonnet		PC		PC	5,666	77.48%	4,019	54.96%		NDP	5,666	1,647	–	–	–	–	–	7,313
Lakeside		PC		PC	6,077	81.61%	4,708	63.23%		NDP	6,077	1,369	–	–	–	–	–	7,446
Logan		NDP		NDP	2,020	39.46%	563	11.00%		Lib	997	2,020	1,457	397	185	–	63	5,119
Midland		PC		PC	6,168	75.20%	5,371	65.48%		Green	6,168	714	523	797	–	–	–	8,202
Minto		NDP		NDP	2,954	51.07%	1,938	33.51%		PC	1,016	2,954	723	410	51	589	41	5,784
Morden-Winkler		PC		PC	6,598	85.04%	5,931	76.44%		Green	6,598	215	279	667	–	–	–	7,759
Morris		PC		PC	6,980	75.46%	5,550	60.00%		Lib	6,980	840	1,430	–	–	–	–	9,250
Point Douglas		NDP		NDP	2,839	57.81%	1,883	38.34%		Lib	811	2,839	956	247	–	–	58	4,911
Portage la Prairie		PC		PC	4,635	70.55%	3,397	51.70%		Lib	4,635	697	1,238	–	–	–	–	6,570
Radisson		NDP		PC	4,635	50.53%	1,690	18.42%		NDP	4,635	2,945	1,593	–	–	–	–	9,173
Riding Mountain		PC		PC	5,311	68.80%	4,283	55.49%		Lib	5,311	601	1,028	779	–	–	–	7,719
Riel		NDP		PC	5,024	51.77%	1,971	20.31%		NDP	5,024	3,053	1,627	–	–	–	–	9,704
River East		PC		PC	6,154	65.71%	3,719	39.71%		NDP	6,154	2,435	776	–	–	–	–	9,365
River Heights		Lib		Lib	5,230	51.90%	1,745	17.32%		PC	3,485	591	5,230	771	–	–	–	10,077
Rossmere		NDP		PC	5,303	53.26%	1,914	19.22%		NDP	5,303	3,389	838	–	427	–	–	9,957
Seine River		NDP		PC	5,396	53.28%	3,008	29.70%		Lib	5,396	2,343	2,388	–	–	–	–	10,127
Selkirk		NDP		PC	4,686	55.51%	2,320	27.48%		NDP	4,686	2,366	1,390	–	–	–	–	8,442
Southdale		NDP		PC	6,663	63.82%	4,203	40.25%		NDP	6,663	2,460	1,318	–	–	–	–	10,441
Spruce Woods		PC		PC	5,210	73.12%	4,472	62.76%		MB	5,210	665	512	–	738	–	–	7,125
St. Boniface		NDP		NDP	3,624	42.41%	1,413	16.53%		PC	2,211	3,624	1,663	1,048	–	–	–	8,546
St. James		NDP		PC	3,532	42.09%	809	9.64%		NDP	3,532	2,723	1,150	850	137	–	–	8,392
St. Johns		NDP		NDP	2,358	37.06%	489	7.69%		PC	1,869	2,358	1,465	671	–	–	–	6,363
St. Norbert		NDP		PC	4,673	51.02%	1,611	17.59%		NDP	4,673	3,062	1,251	–	–	174	–	9,160
St. Paul		PC		PC	7,091	71.60%	5,334	53.86%		NDP	7,091	1,757	1,055	–	–	–	–	9,903
St. Vital		NDP		PC	3,229	39.63%	398	4.89%		NDP	3,229	2,831	1,296	791	–	–	–	8,147
Steinbach		PC		PC	6,982	89.17%	6,521	83.28%		Lib	6,982	387	461	–	–	–	–	7,830
Swan River		NDP		PC	4,105	56.19%	1,683	23.04%		NDP	4,105	2,422	482	297	–	–	–	7,306
The Maples		NDP		NDP	2,832	36.24%	127	1.63%		PC	2,705	2,832	1,695	582	–	–	–	7,814
The Pas		NDP		NDP	1,976	43.49%	211	4.64%		PC	1,765	1,976	586	217	–	–	–	4,544
Thompson		NDP		PC	1,712	44.16%	185	4.77%		NDP	1,712	1,527	638	–	–	–	–	3,877
Transcona		NDP		PC	3,948	49.38%	1,667	20.85%		NDP	3,948	2,281	1,465	–	233	–	68	7,995
Tuxedo		PC		PC	4,986	58.49%	3,674	43.10%		NDP	4,986	1,312	1,251	976	–	–	–	8,525
Tyndall Park		NDP		NDP	2,139	38.95%	483	8.79%		Lib	1,306	2,139	1,656	391	–	–	–	5,492
Wolseley		NDP		NDP	3,037	41.27%	392	5.33%		Green	945	3,037	653	2,645	79	–	–	7,359

  = open seat

  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature

  = incumbent had switched allegiance

  = previously incumbent in another riding

  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain

  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature

  = other incumbents renominated

  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada

  = multiple candidates

Turnout, winning shares and swings

Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2011) ^{[17] [18]}

Riding and winning party				Turnout				Vote share [a 1]				Swing [a 2]
				%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			To	Change (pp)
Agassiz		PC	Hold	57.14	11.13			74.72	3.67			PC	7.22
Arthur-Virden		PC	Hold	53.29	1.39			80.60	14.62			PC	18.39
Assiniboia		PC	Gain	59.57	-2.43			43.91	6.68			PC	-18.48
Brandon East		PC	Gain	54.50	1.38			52.17	13.62			PC	-16.27
Brandon West		PC	Hold	55.93	-3.86			69.10	20.42			PC	22.11
Burrows		Lib	Gain	52.60	5.52			46.55	34.36			PC	-10.24
Charleswood		PC	Hold	65.65	4.56			60.67	4.84			PC	10.74
Concordia		NDP	Hold	54.09	4.30			44.97	-18.09			PC	-15.08
Dauphin		PC	Gain	61.85	-0.24			60.22	19.11			PC	-25.09
Dawson Trail		PC	Gain	57.78	-0.40			53.53	10.01			PC	-21.14
Elmwood		NDP	Hold	54.98	2.43			46.35	-8.26			PC	-9.52
Emerson		PC	Hold	53.49	9.06			72.71	0.06			PC	6.74
Flin Flon		NDP	Hold	34.44	-0.90			32.85	-24.29			PC	-14.26
Fort Garry-Riverview		NDP	Hold	68.53	3.48			37.84	-17.71			PC	-9.65
Fort Richmond		PC	Gain	67.10	4.19			44.24	5.62			PC	-12.07
Fort Rouge		NDP	Hold	65.15	3.92			37.63	-13.63			Lib	-5.28
Fort Whyte		PC	Hold	60.71	-1.20			64.18	1.74			PC	7.55
Gimli		PC	Gain	65.96	-0.03			60.53	17.25			PC	-20.48
Interlake		PC	Gain	61.00	7.64			51.32	7.90			PC	-19.24
Kewatinook		Lib	Gain	24.31	-11.37			49.73	48.36			NDP	4.07
Kildonan		PC	Gain	60.96	5.99			44.39	8.74			PC	-15.71
Kirkfield Park		PC	Gain	68.71	-0.25			53.47	6.92			PC	-11.77
La Verendrye		PC	Hold	55.32	1.71			71.23	7.16			PC	11.87
Lac du Bonnet		PC	Hold	54.92	-3.12			77.48	23.18			PC	19.60
Lakeside		PC	Hold	57.78	0.66			81.61	15.81			PC	11.66
Logan		NDP	Hold	51.98	3.95			39.46	-19.29			Lib	-15.33
Midland		PC	Hold	59.65	8.30			75.20	5.76			PC	10.35
Minto		NDP	Hold	51.38	4.95			51.07	-15.33			PC	-8.80
Morden-Winkler		PC	Hold	51.93	11.15			85.04	-0.49			PC	4.10
Morris		PC	Hold	56.94	6.26			75.46	1.46			PC	5.87
Point Douglas		NDP	Hold	42.53	-1.51			57.81	-15.47			PC	-7.16
Portage la Prairie		PC	Hold	51.33	0.34			70.55	18.31			PC	23.51
Radisson		PC	Gain	62.84	1.36			50.53	11.22			PC	-17.13
Riding Mountain		PC	Hold	55.50	1.49			68.80	10.34			PC	18.51
Riel		PC	Gain	67.38	3.24			51.77	11.60			PC	-17.52
River East		PC	Hold	65.94	-1.06			65.71	14.38			PC	16.26
River Heights		Lib	Hold	72.70	0.19			51.90	5.98			Lib	2.06
Rossmere		PC	Gain	60.51	0.44			53.26	17.26			PC	-19.91
Seine River		PC	Gain	66.80	-4.01			53.28	9.20			PC	-19.57
Selkirk		PC	Gain	58.72	3.95			55.51	16.13			PC	-22.06
Southdale		PC	Gain	62.31	-7.82			63.82	18.83			PC	-23.64
Spruce Woods		PC	Hold	51.99	3.35			73.12	6.47			PC	12.88
St. Boniface		NDP	Hold	63.67	4.17			42.41	-26.47			PC	-17.22
St. James		PC	Gain	61.94	-0.08			42.09	3.76			PC	-10.53
St. Johns		NDP	Hold	51.43	3.08			37.06	-28.91			PC	-17.99
St. Norbert		PC	Gain	65.09	0.85			51.02	6.22			PC	-8.97
St. Paul		PC	Hold	61.12	2.83			71.60	12.02			PC	15.86
St. Vital		PC	Gain	63.97	3.62			39.63	5.23			PC	-15.28
Steinbach		PC	Hold	51.71	2.05			89.17	3.68			PC	3.18
Swan River		PC	Gain	60.18	0.52			56.19	15.8			PC	-19.40
The Maples		NDP	Hold	55.63	0.72			36.24	-15.59			PC	-12.17
The Pas		NDP	Hold	30.70	0.30			43.49	-30.12			PC	-22.70
Thompson		PC	Gain	37.36	0.64			44.16	15.86			PC	-22.50
Transcona		PC	Gain	55.98	4.74			49.38	14.76			PC	-22.23
Tuxedo		PC	Hold	62.39	0.08			58.49	5.75			PC	7.88
Tyndall Park		NDP	Hold	53.40	1.89			38.95	-6.22			Lib	-0.73
Wolseley		NDP	Hold	63.26	7.66			41.27	-19.46			Green	-17.88

Changes in party shares

Share change analysis by party and riding (2016 vs 2011) ^{[17] [18]}

Riding	Green				Liberal				NDP				PC
	%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)
Agassiz	5.85	0.74			–	-6.64			6.43	-10.77			74.72	3.67
Arthur-Virden					–	-3.81			8.05	-22.16			80.60	14.62
Assiniboia	7.38	5.05			20.76	18.54			27.95	-30.27			43.91	6.68
Brandon East	–	-2.52			11.80	7.82			36.03	-18.92			52.17	13.62
Brandon West					7.75	3.37			23.15	-23.79			69.10	20.42
Burrows	3.81	1.40			46.55	34.36			31.28	-28.05			17.87	-7.58
Charleswood	12.37	6.92			13.59	4.88			13.37	-16.64			60.67	4.84
Concordia	–	-4.85			10.46	6.73			44.97	-18.09			40.44	12.07
Dauphin	7.47	5.03			6.34	4.82			23.85	-31.07			60.22	19.11
Dawson Trail					19.96	16.03			20.28	-32.27			53.53	10.01
Elmwood	–	-4.89			–	-6.60			46.35	-8.26			44.69	10.79
Emerson					20.93	13.36			6.35	-13.42			72.71	0.06
Flin Flon	–	-3.36			28.16	12.74			32.85	-24.29			28.33	4.24
Fort Garry-Riverview	18.77	14.46			8.85	1.66			37.84	-17.71			34.54	1.59
Fort Richmond	8.30	5.30			12.51	7.61			34.95	-18.53			44.24	5.62
Fort Rouge	11.01	5.57			20.07	-3.06			37.63	-13.63			28.80	8.64
Fort Whyte	6.92	6.92			11.42	3.49			16.28	-13.36			64.18	1.74
Gimli	9.09	5.91			–	-2.03			27.81	-23.72			60.53	17.25
Interlake					28.80	25.90			19.89	-30.58			51.32	7.90
Kewatinook	–	-2.63			49.73	48.36			38.35	-18.79			11.92	-26.94
Kildonan	5.48	5.48			11.70	6.86			36.83	-22.68			44.39	8.74
Kirkfield Park	7.68	4.47			8.71	5.23			30.13	-16.62			53.47	6.92
La Verendrye	9.80	5.02			9.42	4.41			9.54	-16.59			71.23	7.16
Lac du Bonnet	–	-3.62			–	-3.55			22.52	-16.01			77.48	23.18
Lakeside	–	-4.95			–	-3.35			18.39	-7.51			81.61	15.81
Logan	7.76	1.16			28.46	11.38			39.46	-19.29			19.48	2.94
Midland	9.72	9.72			6.38	-0.53			8.71	-14.94			75.20	5.76
Minto	7.09	1.01			12.50	1.31			51.07	-15.33			17.57	2.26
Morden-Winkler	8.60	8.60			3.60	0.59			2.77	-8.69			85.04	-0.49
Morris					15.46	8.83			9.08	-10.29			75.46	1.46
Point Douglas	5.03	1.64			19.47	14.52			57.81	-15.47			16.51	-1.14
Portage la Prairie					18.84	10.40			10.61	-28.71			70.55	18.31
Radisson					17.37	11.82			32.11	-23.04			50.53	11.22
Riding Mountain	10.09	6.60			13.32	9.76			7.79	-26.69			68.80	10.34
Riel					16.77	11.84			31.46	-23.44			51.77	11.60
River East	–	-2.68			8.29	6.45			26.00	-18.14			65.71	14.38
River Heights	7.65	4.08			51.90	5.98			5.86	-11.93			34.58	1.87
Rossmere	–	-3.68			8.42	4.68			34.04	-22.55			53.26	17.26
Seine River					23.58	20.73			23.14	-29.93			53.28	9.20
Selkirk					16.47	11.87			28.03	-28.00			55.51	16.13
Southdale					12.62	9.62			23.56	-28.45			63.82	18.83
Spruce Woods					7.19	2.46			9.33	-19.28			73.12	6.47
St. Boniface	12.26	6.09			19.46	12.40			42.41	-26.47			25.87	7.97
St. James	10.13	5.90			13.70	6.01			32.45	-17.31			42.09	3.76
St. Johns	10.55	4.33			23.02	17.50			37.06	-28.91			29.37	7.08
St. Norbert					13.66	3.60			33.43	-11.72			51.02	6.22
St. Paul					10.65	7.69			17.74	-19.71			71.60	12.02
St. Vital	9.71	9.71			15.91	10.39			34.75	-25.33			39.63	5.23
Steinbach					5.89	-0.99			4.94	-2.69			89.17	3.68
Swan River	4.07	4.07			6.60	3.13			33.15	-23.00			56.19	15.80
The Maples	7.45	3.71			21.69	3.12			36.24	-15.59			34.62	8.76
The Pas	4.78	4.78			12.90	10.07			43.49	-30.12			38.84	15.27
Thompson					16.46	13.28			39.39	-29.14			44.16	15.86
Transcona					18.32	11.17			28.53	-29.70			49.38	14.76
Tuxedo	11.45	6.10			14.67	-1.85			15.39	-10.00			58.49	5.75
Tyndall Park	7.12	3.00			30.15	-4.76			38.95	-6.22			23.78	7.98
Wolseley	35.94	16.30			8.87	1.45			41.27	-19.46			12.84	0.64

1. Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2011.
2. Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2011; negative points to 2011's second-place party being swung to.

  = did not field a candidate in 2011

Summary results

Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016

Party		2011	Gain from (loss to)			2016
			NDP	PC	Lib
	New Democratic	37		(21)	(2)	14
	Progressive Conservative	19	21			40
	Liberal	1	2			3
Total		57	23	(21)	(2)	57

Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party

Party		Candidates	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
	Progressive Conservative	57	40	11	6	–	–
	New Democratic	57	14	28	12	3	–
	Liberal	51	3	11	31	6	–
	Green	30	–	4	5	20	1
	Manitoba	16	–	2	1	5	7
	Independent	4	–	1	–	3	–

Party candidates in 2nd place

Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place						Total
		PC	NDP	Lib	Grn	MB	Ind
	Progressive Conservative	–	26	8	3	2	1	40
	New Democratic	10	–	3	1	–		14
	Liberal	1	2	–	–	–	–	3
Total		11	28	11	4	2	1	57

Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results

Parties		Seats
█  Progressive Conservative	█  New Democratic	36
█  Progressive Conservative	█  Liberal	9
█  Progressive Conservative	█  Green	3
█  Progressive Conservative	█  Manitoba	2
█  Progressive Conservative	█  Independent	1
█  New Democratic	█  Liberal	5
█  New Democratic	█  Green	1
Total		57

Notes

1. Erin Selby (Southdale) and Peter Bjornson (Gimli) resigned their seats in 2015. ^[16] No by-elections were called and their seats remained vacant.

References

1. Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election Archived February 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine . Retrieved June 24, 2012.
2. "Brian Pallister's PCs win majority government in Manitoba". CBC News. April 19, 2016.
3. Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).
4. Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
5. Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
6. "'Choices are clear:' Selinger makes April 19 Manitoba election official". CTV News. March 16, 2016. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
7. "Manitoba election results 2016". Global News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.
8. "Voters don't trust leaders, but Pallister fares better than rivals: poll". Winnipeg Free Press , April 9, 2016.
9. "Manitobans go to the polls in provincial election". CBC News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.
10. "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics". Global News. April 13, 2015.
11. "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running". Global News. May 13, 2015.
12. CBC News Manitoba, 24-11-2015
13. "Longtime NDP MLA Nancy Allan announces retirement". Winnipeg Free Press. May 28, 2015. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
14. "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection". Winnipeg Free Press. September 11, 2014.
15. "River East MLA Bonnie Mitchelson Announces Retirement". CJOB. October 17, 2014.
16. Owen, Bruce (April 29, 2015). "Selinger's shuffle making the best of a bad situation". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
17. "Results of 40th General Election, October 4, 2011". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved September 30, 2025.
18. "Results of 41st General Election, April 19, 2016". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved October 3, 2025.

Opinion poll sources

1. "Two Thirds of Manitobans Want a Change of Government". Archived from the original on April 27, 2016.
2. "Voter Intentions Remain Unchanged in the Final Weekend Before the Manitoba Provincial Election". April 18, 2016.
3. Progressive Conservatives to take more than half the vote Forum Research Inc.
4. "Manitoba's choice". mainstreetresearch.ca. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
5. "Manitoba Progressive Conservatives Hold Sizeable Lead". Archived from the original on April 18, 2016. Retrieved December 11, 2022.
6. "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader".
7. "Liberals Slide, PCS Lead as Election Nears End".
8. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 9, 2016.
9. "Poll suggests Tories hold solid support as Manitoba election approaches". CBC. March 31, 2016.
10. "Tenuous Tie Continues in Winnipeg".
11. "Forum research Inc" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 22, 2016. Retrieved March 29, 2016.
12. "Dead Heat in Winnipeg".
13. "Mainstreet - Manitoba February 22 | PDF | Opinion Poll | Politics Of Canada". Scribd.
14. "Mainstreet - Manitoba February 16 | PDF | Opinion Poll | Political Parties". Scribd.
15. "PCS Dominating in Manitoba".
16. "PCS Lead, Liberals Second in Manitoba".
17. "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader". December 30, 2015. Archived from the original on March 29, 2016.
18. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 23, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2015.
19. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on October 1, 2015. Retrieved September 30, 2015.
20. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 24, 2015. Retrieved August 4, 2015.
21. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 4, 2016. Retrieved April 7, 2015.
22. "Nov 2014: Most Manitobans say Selinger should resign: Poll". Winnipeg Free Press. November 4, 2014.
23. Owen, Bruce (October 9, 2014). "Oct 2014: Liberals only gainers in latest poll numbers". Winnipeg Free Press.
24. Kusch, Larry (April 7, 2014). "Apr 2014: Tories keep top spot in survey". Winnipeg Free Press.
25. "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader".
26. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 27, 2013. Retrieved December 27, 2013.
27. "New opinion poll suggests Manitoba's NDP government still low in popular support | Metro". metronews.ca. Archived from the original on June 10, 2015. Retrieved January 25, 2022.
28. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 1, 2014. Retrieved January 30, 2014.
29. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 19, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2013.
30. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved October 27, 2012.
31. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 12, 2016. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
32. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved September 13, 2012.

Further reading

• Levasseur, Karine; Rounce, Andrea; Ferguson, Barry; Koop, Royce, eds. (2019). Understanding the Manitoba Election 2016: Campaigns, Participation, Issues, Place. Winnipeg: University of Manitoba Press. ISBN   978-0-88755-548-0.

External links

• Elections Manitoba