2016 Manitoba general election

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2016 Manitoba general election
Flag of Manitoba.svg
  2011 April 19, 2016 (2016-04-19) 2019  

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats needed for a majority
Turnout57.43%
 First partySecond party
  Brian Pallister 2014.jpg Premier Greg Selinger Presents US Ambassador Jacobson with a Winnipeg Jets Jersey (3x4 crop).jpg
Leader Brian Pallister Greg Selinger
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since July 30, 2012 October 17, 2009
Leader's seat Fort Whyte St. Boniface
Last election19 seats, 43.71%37 seats, 46.16%
Seats before1935
Seats won4014
Seat changeIncrease2.svg21Decrease2.svg21
Popular vote232,215112,748
Percentage53.10%25.78%
SwingIncrease2.svg9.39%Decrease2.svg20.38%

 Third partyFourth party
  Canadianbokhari.png James Beddome, Leader of the Green Party of Manitoba in 2016 (3x4 cropped).jpg
Leader Rana Bokhari James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 26, 2013 November 15, 2014
Leader's seatran in Fort Rouge (lost)ran in Fort Garry-Riverview (lost)
Last election1 seat, 7.52%0 seats, 2.52%
Seats before10
Seats won30
Seat changeIncrease2.svg2Steady2.svg
Popular vote62,97322,188
Percentage14.40%5.07%
SwingIncrease2.svg6.88%Increase2.svg2.62%

Manitoba Election Map 2016.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.

Premier before election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Premier after election

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. [1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Tories won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats. [2]

Contents

The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election. [3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April. [4] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early. [5] The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016. [6]

Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting; [7] in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate. [8] Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent. [8]

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate. [7] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change. [9]

Election summary

The Tories went into the election as heavy favourites, having led opinion polls for almost four years. They scored a near-sweep of rural southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.

Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election
PartyLeaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote
2011 Dissol. 2016+/-Votes%% change
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 57191940+21232,21553.10+9.39
New Democratic Greg Selinger 57373514-21112,74825.78−20.38
Liberal Rana Bokhari 51113+262,97314.40+6.88
Green James Beddome 3022,1885.07+2.55
Manitoba First Gary Marshall 164,8871.12n/a
Communist Darrell Rankin 63050.07+0.03
 Independents42,0320.46+0.41
 Vacant [lower-alpha 1] 2
Total221575757437,348
Popular vote
PC
53.10%
New Democratic
25.78%
Liberal
14.40%
Green
5.07%
Others
1.65%
Seats summary
PC
70.18%
New Democratic
24.56%
Liberal
5.26%

Summary results

40143
Progressive ConservativeNew DemocraticLiberal
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016
Party2011Gain from (loss to)2016
NDPPCLib
New Democratic 37(21)(2)14
Progressive Conservative 192140
Liberal 123
Total5723(21)(2)57
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party
PartyCandidates1st2nd3rd4th5th
Progressive Conservative 5740116
New Democratic 571428123
Liberal 51311316
Green 3045201
Manitoba 162157
Independent 413
Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
PCNDPLibGrnMBInd
Progressive Conservative 26832140
New Democratic 103114
Liberal 123
Total11281142157
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
PartiesSeats
  Progressive Conservative   New Democratic 36
  Progressive Conservative   Liberal 9
  Progressive Conservative   Green 3
  Progressive Conservative   Manitoba 2
  Progressive Conservative   Independent 1
  New Democratic   Liberal 5
  New Democratic   Green 1
Total57

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents
PartyRidingIncumbent
NDP
Assiniboia Jim Rondeau [11]
Dauphin Stan Struthers [12]
Dawson Trail Ron Lemieux
Fort Rouge Jennifer Howard
Radisson Bidhu Jha [13]
St. Johns Gord Mackintosh
St. Vital Nancy Allan [14]
Seine River Theresa Oswald
Transcona Daryl Reid
Progressive Conservative
Agassiz Stu Briese [15]
Riding Mountain Leanne Rowat [15]
River East Bonnie Mitchelson [16]

Opinion polls

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NDP
Progressive Conservative
Liberal
Green MB 2011-2016.png
Polling firmLast date
of polling
Link NDP PC Liberal Green Other
Insights West April 18, 2016 [p 1] 28531071
Insightrix ResearchApril 18, 2016 [p 2] 22491991
Forum Research April 17, 2016 [p 3] 2152189
Mainstreet Research April 14, 2016 [p 4] 2655119
Insights West April 7, 2016 [p 5] 26491771
Insightrix ResearchApril 7, 2016 [p 6] 2449225
Mainstreet Research April 5, 2016 [p 7] 2450179
Probe Research IncApril 4, 2016 [p 8] 2846206
Mainstreet Research March 29, 2016 [p 9] 2345247
Mainstreet Research March 19, 2016 [p 10] 2444247
Forum Research March 13, 2016 [p 11] 22462381
Mainstreet Research March 12, 2016 [p 12] 2743247
Mainstreet Research February 20, 2016 [p 13] 2150236
Mainstreet Research February 11, 2016 [p 14] 2151207
Mainstreet Research January 25, 2016 [p 15] 2052209
Mainstreet Research January 9, 2016 [p 16] 2344276
Insightrix ResearchDecember 22, 2015 [p 17] 19393651
Probe Research IncDecember 15, 2015 [p 18] 2243296
Probe Research IncSeptember 23, 2015 [p 19] 2545245
Probe Research IncJune 27, 2015 [p 20] 2946195
Probe Research IncApril 5, 2015 [p 21] 2944207
Probe Research IncDecember 12, 2014 HTML 2648197
Mainstreet Research November 3, 2014 [p 22] 275320
Probe Research IncOctober 1, 2014 [p 23] 3042208
Probe Research IncJune 19, 2014 HTML 3245167
Probe Research IncMarch 28, 2014 [p 24] 2846233
Insightrix ResearchFebruary 7, 2014 [p 25] 2449189
Probe Research IncDecember 27, 2013 [p 26] 2648206
Probe Research IncSeptember 28, 2013 [p 27] 2943208
Probe Research IncJune 26, 2013 [p 28] 28461710
Probe Research IncApril 14, 2013 [p 29] 3542158
Probe Research IncDecember 14, 2012 [p 30] 3943117
Probe Research IncOctober 14, 2012 [p 31] 4538116
Probe Research IncJune 29, 2012 [p 32] 4440133
Probe Research IncApril 4, 2012 [p 33] 4045105
2011 election October 4, 201146.243.77.52.50.1
Polling firmLast date
of polling
LinkOther
NDP PC Liberal Green

Candidates by riding

Northern Manitoba

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Flin Flon Tom Lindsey
1,106
Angela Enright
954
Leslie Beck
948
Clarence Pettersen (Ind.)
359
Clarence Pettersen
Kewatinook Eric Robinson
1,207
Edna Nabess
375
Judy Klassen
1,565
Eric Robinson
Swan River Ron Kostyshyn
2,408
Rick Wowchuk
4,081
Shayne Lynxleg
483
Dan Soprovich
296
Ron Kostyshyn
The Pas Amanda Lathlin
1,976
Doug Lauvstad
1,765
Tyler Duncan
586
Patrick Wood
217
Amanda Lathlin
Thompson Steve Ashton
1,527
Kelly Bindle
1,712
Inez Vystrcil-Spence
638
Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Agassiz Courtney Lucas
450
Eileen Clarke
5,228
Robert Smith
409
Damian Dempsey (Ind.)
910
Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden Lorne Topolniski
600
Doyle Piwniuk
6,006
Frank Godon (Manitoba)
846
Doyle Piwniuk
Brandon East Drew Caldwell
2,534
Len Isleifson
3,669
Vanessa Hamilton
830
Drew Caldwell
Brandon West Linda Ross
1,884
Reg Helwer
5,624
William Moore
631
Reg Helwer
Dauphin Darcy Scheller
1,899
Brad Michaleski
4,795
Garry Gurke
505
Kate Storey
595
Darrell Inkster (Manitoba)
168
Stan Struthers
Riding Mountain Béla Gyarmati
601
Greg Nesbitt
5,311
Jordan Fleury
1,028
Mark Olenick
779
Leanne Rowat
Spruce Woods Amanda Chmelyk
665
Cliff Cullen
5,210
Jaron Hart
512
Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba)
738
Cliff Cullen

Central Manitoba

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Emerson Alanna Jones
432
Cliff Graydon
4,943
Loren Braul
1,423
Cliff Graydon
Gimli Armand Bélanger
2,579
Jeff Wharton
5,614
Dwight Harfield
843
Ed Paquette (Manitoba)
239
vacant
Interlake Tom Nevakshonoff
1,428
Derek Johnson
3,685
Jamal Abas
2,068
Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside Matt Austman
1,369
Ralph Eichler
6,077
Ralph Eichler
Midland Jacqueline Theroux
714
Blaine Pedersen
6,168
Julia Sisler
523
Stacey O’Neill
797
Blaine Pedersen
Morden-Winkler Elizabeth Lynch
215
Cameron Friesen
6,598
Benjamin Bawdon
279
Mike Urichuk
667
Cameron Friesen
Morris Mohamed Alli
840
Shannon Martin
6,980
John Falk
1,430
Shannon Martin
Portage la Prairie Alex MacDonald
697
Ian Wishart
4,635
Stephen Prince
1,238
Ian Wishart

Eastman

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Dawson Trail Roxane Dupuis
1,678
Bob Lagassé
4,430
Terry Hayward
1,652
David Sutherland (Manitoba)
516
Ron Lemieux
Lac du Bonnet Wendy Sol
1,647
Wayne Ewasko
5,666
Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye Echo Asher
705
Dennis Smook
5,262
Bill Paulishyn
696
Janine Gibson
724
Dennis Smook
Steinbach Kathleen McCallum
387
Kelvin Goertzen
6,982
Dakota Young-Brown
461
Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul Andrew Podolecki
1,757
Ron Schuler
7,091
Pete Sanderson
1,055
Ron Schuler
Selkirk Greg Dewar
2,366
Alan Lagimodiere
4,686
Stefan Jones
1,390
Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Burrows Melanie Wight
1,775
Rae Wagner
1,014
Cindy Lamoureux
2,641
Garrett Bodnaryk
216
Tony Petrowski (Communist)
28
Melanie Wight
Kildonan Dave Chomiak
3,065
Nic Curry
3,694
Navdeep Khangura
974
Steven Stairs
456
Gary Marshall (Manitoba)
133
Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas Kevin Chief
2,839
Marsha Street
811
Althea Guiboche
956
Alberteen Spence
247
Frank Komarniski (Communist)
58
Kevin Chief
St. Johns Nahanni Fontaine
2,358
Barbara Judt
1,869
Noel Bernier
1,465
Elizabeth Puchailo
671
Gord Mackintosh
The Maples Mohinder Saran
2,832
Kaur Sidhu
2,705
Harbans Singh Brar
1,695
John Redekopp
582
Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park Ted Marcelino
2,139
Naseer Warraich
1,306
Aida Champagne
1,656
Shane Neustaeter
391

Ted Marcelino

Northeast Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Concordia Matt Wiebe
2,761
Andrew Frank
2,483
Donovan Martin
642
Terry Scott (Manitoba)
254
Matt Wiebe
Elmwood Jim Maloway
2,993
Sarah Langevin
2,886
Albert Ratt (Manitoba)
579
Jim Maloway
Radisson Preet Singh
2,945
James Teitsma
4,635
Scott Newman
1,593
Bidhu Jha
River East Jody Gillis
2,435
Cathy Cox
6,154
Piero Scaramuzzi
776
Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere Erna Braun
3,389
Andrew Micklefield
5,303
Malli Aulakh
838
William Sullivan (Manitoba)
427
Erna Braun
St. Boniface Greg Selinger
3,624
Mamadou Ka
2,211
Alain Landry
1,663
Signe Knutson
1,048
Greg Selinger
Transcona Barb Burkowski
2,281
Blair Yakimoski
3,948
Chad Panting
1,465
Darrell Rankin (Communist)
68
Ajit Kumar (Manitoba)
233
Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Assiniboia Joseph McKellep
2,196
Steven Fletcher
3,450
Ian McCausland
1,631
Ileana Ohlsson
580
Jim Rondeau
Charleswood Janna Barkman
1,168
Myrna Driedger
5,298
Paul Brault
1,187
Kevin Nichols
1,080
Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park Sharon Blady
3,075
Scott Fielding
5,457
Kelly Nord
889
Lisa Omand
784
Sharon Blady
St. James Deanne Crothers
2,723
Scott Johnston
3,532
Michelle Finley
1,150
Jeff Buhse
850
Brad Gross (Manitoba)
137
Deanne Crothers
Tuxedo Zach Fleisher
1,312
Heather Stefanson
4,986
Michael Lazar
1,251
Bob Krul
976
Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Fort Garry-Riverview James Allum
3,450
Jeannette Montufar
3,149
Johanna Wood
807
James Beddome
1,711
James Allum
Fort Rouge Wab Kinew
3,360
Audrey Gordon
2751
Rana Bokhari
1,792
Grant Sharp
983
Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba)
175
Paula Ducharme (Communist)
47
Jennifer Howard
Logan Flor Marcelino
2,020
Allie Szarkiewicz
997
Peter Koroma
1,457
Jitendradas Loves-Life
397
Joe Chan (Manitoba)
185
Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist)
63
Flor Marcelino
Minto Andrew Swan
2,954
Belinda Squance
1,016
Demetre Balaktsis
723
Martha Jo Willard
410
Andrew Taylor (Communist)
41
Virgil Gil (Manitoba)
51
Don Woodstock (Ind)
589
Andrew Swan
River Heights Shafagh Daneshfar
591
Tracey Maconachie
3,485
Jon Gerrard
5,230
Michael Cardillo
771
Jon Gerrard
Wolseley Rob Altemeyer
3,037
Raquel Dancho
945
Shandi Strong
653
David Nickarz
2,645
Wayne Sturby (Manitoba)
79
Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Fort Richmond Kerri Irvin-Ross
2,274
Sarah Guillemard
2,879
Kyra Wilson
814
Cameron Proulx
540
Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Whyte George Wong
1,718
Brian Pallister
6,775
Peter Bastians
1,205
Carli Runions
731
Daryl Newis (Manitoba)
127
Brian Pallister
Riel Christine Melnick
3,053
Rochelle Squires
5,024
Neil Johnston
1,627
Christine Melnick
Seine River Lise Pinkos
2,343
Janice Morley-Lecomte
5,396
Peter Chura
2,388
Theresa Oswald
Southdale Dashi Zargani
2,460
Andrew Smith
6,663
Ryan Colyer
1,318
vacant
St. Norbert Dave Gaudreau
3,062
Jon Reyes
4,673
James Bloomfield
1,251
Narinder Kaur Johar
174
Dave Gaudreau
St. Vital Jamie Moses
2,831
Colleen Mayer
3,229
Bryan Van Wilgenburg
1,296
Kelly Whelan-Enns
791
Nancy Allan

Notes

  1. Erin Selby (Southdale) and Peter Bjornson (Gimli) resigned their seats in 2015. [10] No by-elections were called and their seats remained vacant.

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References

  1. Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election Archived February 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine . Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  2. "Brian Pallister's PCs win majority government in Manitoba". CBC News. April 19, 2016.
  3. Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).
  4. Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
  5. Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
  6. "'Choices are clear:' Selinger makes April 19 Manitoba election official". CTV News. March 16, 2016. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  7. 1 2 "Manitoba election results 2016". Global News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.
  8. 1 2 "Voters don't trust leaders, but Pallister fares better than rivals: poll". Winnipeg Free Press , April 9, 2016.
  9. "Manitobans go to the polls in provincial election". CBC News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.
  10. Owen, Bruce (April 29, 2015). "Selinger's shuffle making the best of a bad situation". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  11. "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics". Global News. April 13, 2015.
  12. "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running". Global News. May 13, 2015.
  13. CBC News Manitoba, 24-11-2015
  14. "Longtime NDP MLA Nancy Allan announces retirement". Winnipeg Free Press. May 28, 2015. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  15. 1 2 "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection". Winnipeg Free Press. September 11, 2014.
  16. "River East MLA Bonnie Mitchelson Announces Retirement". CJOB. October 17, 2014.

Opinion poll sources

  1. "Two Thirds of Manitobans Want a Change of Government".
  2. "Voter Intentions Remain Unchanged in the Final Weekend Before the Manitoba Provincial Election". April 18, 2016.
  3. http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/0075bd7f-b8da-4d7e-88a4-1e0d387dbeacManitoba%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2016%2004%2018)%20Forum%20Research.pdf [ bare URL PDF ]
  4. http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/manitobas-choice/
  5. "Manitoba Progressive Conservatives Hold Sizeable Lead".
  6. "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader".
  7. "Liberals Slide, PCS Lead as Election Nears End".
  8. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 9, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  9. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/mainstreet-poll-election-manitoba-1.3513997/ [ bare URL ]
  10. "Tenuous Tie Continues in Winnipeg".
  11. http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/994ba259-e269-4b4d-a90e-dcb9253ff637Manitoba%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282016%2003%2014%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf [ bare URL PDF ]
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Further reading