Carleton in the 2025 Canadian federal election

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Carleton in the 2025 Canadian federal election
Flag of Canada (Pantone).svg
←  2021 28 April 2025 Next  →
Riding of Carleton
Turnout86,655
81.84% (Increase2.svg7.27pp)
 First partySecond party
 
Lib
 Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Candidate Bruce Fanjoy Pierre Poilievre
Party Liberal Conservative
Popular vote43,84639,333
Percentage50.95%45.70%
SwingIncrease2.svg 19.09pp Decrease2.svg 6.16pp
MP before election

Pierre Poilievre
Conservative

Elected MP

Bruce Fanjoy
Liberal

An election took place in the federal electoral district of Carleton on April 28, 2025 as part of the 2025 Canadian federal election. Liberal Party candidate Bruce Fanjoy defeated Conservative Party leader and Leader of the Opposition Pierre Poilievre by over 4,300 votes in an upset victory. [1] During the campaign, it became "one of the most-watched races in the country". [2]

Contents

Background

Carleton, which covers much of Ottawa's rural area and outer suburbs, [2] [3] was considered a Conservative stronghold seat, [1] with Poilievre holding it, and its predecessor seat Nepean—Carleton since the 2004 Canadian federal election. [4] First elected when he was 25 years old, [5] Poilievre won seven straight elections, with only the 2015 election being close. [3] The 2025 election was the first with Poilievre as leader of the Conservatives. [2]

Campaign

Fanjoy, a stay-at-home father, [1] former businessman, and environmentalist [2] began canvassing the district in 2023, and officially became the Liberal candidate in June 2024. [3] His candidacy was initially seen as a "long shot", [6] with many people being skeptical of his chances. [1] During the campaign, he went through two pairs of shoes and a pair of boots, while door-knocking five days a week, [1] estimating that he knocked on 15,000 doors, [4] and raised more than $100,000. [2]

It was not until the last stages of the campaign when the Conservatives began to be worried that the riding was in danger of being lost. With just a few days to go before election day, a source from the Liberal campaign confirmed with the press that their projections showed that the gap between Poilievre and Fanjoy had dropped to five points. [5]

Both the Liberals and Conservatives sent extra campaign workers to the riding in the final days of the campaign, with Conservative sources confirming Poilievre was at risk of losing the seat. [5] Poilievre visited the riding the night before election day, though almost half of all voters had already cast their ballots in advance polls, the most of any district in the country. [2] Previously, Poilievre had only visited the riding at the beginning of the election to launch his campaign. [5]

Ballot paper for the 2025 election Carleton - 2025 Federal election - 20250428-152255.jpg
Ballot paper for the 2025 election

In addition to the race being a high-profile one, the campaign was targeted by the Longest Ballot Committee, whose aim is to field many candidates to protest Canada's use of the first-past-the-post voting system. In total, 91 candidates ran in the seat, tying the record for the most candidates on a federal ballot. [7] The ballot was a metre long and caused logistical difficulties. [2]

Owing to the closeness of the result, and the sheer length of the ballots, the CBC finally called the race for Fanjoy at 5:00am on election night. [7]

Fanjoy credited his victory to the ongoing trade war with the United States spurred on by President of the United States Donald Trump, [7] with the Liberal campaign drawing parallels between Poilievre and Trump's styles. [3] Many federal public servants live in the riding and Fanjoy targeted them with fears of job cuts by Poilievre. [3] Fanjoy also stated that Poilievre "took the riding for granted". [8] Other factors that were attributed to Poilievre's loss include the suburbanization of the riding, with people moving there during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ottawa, as well as Poilievre's support for the Canada convoy protest, which occupied the city's downtown during the pandemic. [9]

Aftermath

Despite losing the seat, Poilievre decided to stay on as Conservative leader. [3] As a result, Battle River—Crowfoot MP Damien Kurek announced his intention to vacate his seat, which would trigger a by-election in his riding and allow Poilievre a chance to return to Parliament. [10] [11] Poilievre was elected on August 18, returning to the House of Commons.

Results

2025 Canadian federal election : Carleton
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
Liberal Bruce Fanjoy 43,84650.95+19.09
Conservative Pierre Poilievre 39,33345.70−6.16
New Democratic Beth Prokaska1,2211.42−9.95
Green Mark Watson5610.65−1.50
UnitedKaren Bourdeau1120.13N/A
Canadian Future Shawn MacEachern630.07N/A
Independent Lorant Polya570.07
Independent Scott Falkingham450.05
Independent Sana Ahmad410.05
Independent Pierre Gauthier380.04
Marijuana Danny Légaré370.04N/A
Independent Guillaume Paradis370.04
Independent Dan Kyung350.04
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 310.04N/A
Independent Sarah Burke270.03
Independent Mark Moutter230.03
Independent David Zhu210.02
Independent Charlie Currie200.02
Independent John Dale200.02
Independent Euan Fraser Tait180.02
Independent John Boylan170.02
Independent Mélodie Anderson160.02
Independent Alex Banks160.02
Independent Michael Bednarski150.02
Independent David Nguyen150.02
Independent Sophie Bearden140.02
Independent Seyed Hosseini Lavasani130.02
No affiliationJeani Boudreault120.01
Independent Alexandra Engering120.01
Independent Lajos Polya120.01
No affiliationDarcy Vanderwater120.01
Independent Jenny Cartwright110.01
Independent Jeffrey Goodman110.01
Independent Donald McKay110.01
Independent Daniel Stuckless110.01
Independent Maria Gabriel100.01
No affiliationLaina Kohler100.01
Independent Charles Lemieux100.01
Independent Marthalee Aykroyd90.01
Independent Ryan Huard90.01
Independent Sarah Thompson90.01
Independent Alain Bourgault80.01
Independent Daniel Gagnon80.01
Independent Robert Harris80.01
Independent Andrea Hollinger80.01
Independent Connie Lukawski80.01
Independent John Francis O'Flynn80.01
Independent Peter Gorman70.01
Independent Julian Selody70.01
Independent Michal Wieczorek70.01
Independent Line Bélanger60.01
Independent Blake Hamilton60.01
Independent Loren Hicks60.01
No affiliationAlexander Lein60.01
Independent Agnieszka Marszalek60.01
Independent Hakim Sheriff60.01
Independent Tetia Bayoro50.01
Independent David Cherniak50.01
Independent Kevin Krisa50.01
Independent Alain Lamontagne50.01
Independent Winston Neutel50.01
Independent Lény Painchaud50.01
Independent Elliot Wand50.01
Independent Dante Camarena Jimenez40.00
Independent Jaël Champagne Gareau40.00
Independent Gerrit Dogger40.00
Independent Gregory Gillis40.00
No affiliationChristopher Navarro-Canseco40.00
Independent Lanna Palsson40.00
Independent Spencer Rocchi40.00
Independent Patrick Strzalkowski40.00
No affiliationManon Marie Lili Desbiens30.00
Independent Artem Gudkov30.00
No affiliationKerri Hildebrandt30.00
Independent Trevor Holsworth30.00
No affiliationKrzysztof Krzywinski30.00
Independent Samuel Lafontaine30.00
Independent Roger Sherwood30.00
Independent Yogo Shimada30.00
Independent Michael Skirzynski30.00
Independent Julie St-Amand30.00
Independent Daniel Graham20.00
Independent Zornitsa Halacheva20.00
Independent Anthony Hamel20.00
Independent Demetrios Karavas20.00
Independent Sheri Oberman20.00
Independent Wallace Richard Rowat20.00
Independent Pascal St-Amand20.00
Independent Benjamin Teichman20.00
Independent Joseph Maw10.00
No affiliationYsack Dupont00.00
Total valid votes/expense limit86,06099.31
Total rejected ballots5950.69
Turnout86,65581.84
Eligible voters105,889
Liberal notional gain from Conservative Swing +12.63
Source: Elections Canada [12] [13]
Note: number of eligible voters does not include voting day registrations.

Previous result

2021 federal election redistributed results [14]
PartyVote%
  Conservative 36,53451.86
  Liberal 22,44831.86
  New Democratic 8,01211.37
  People's 1,9392.75
  Green 1,5122.15
 Others70.01
2021 Canadian federal election : Carleton
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
Conservative Pierre Poilievre 35,35649.9+3.55$108,590.73
Liberal Gustave Roy24,29834.3−3.93$91,061.91
New Democratic Kevin Hua8,16411.5+2.16$3,138.40
People's Peter Crawley1,7282.4+1.26$1,053.55
Green Nira Dookeran1,3271.9−3.04$2,403.07
Total valid votes/expense limit70,87399.37—$122,996.20
Total rejected ballots4470.63+0.03
Turnout71,32074.57−2.61
Eligible voters95,639
Conservative hold Swing +3.74
Source: Elections Canada [15] [16] [17]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Djuric, Mickey (May 1, 2025). "'Pierre Barely Showed Up': How Canada's Conservative Leader Lost His Seat in Parliament". POLITICO. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mohsen, Sadeen; Payne, Elizabeth (April 28, 2025). "'Conservatives lose election; Poilievre loses Carleton riding". Ottawa Citizen. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Taylor, Stephanie; Nardi, Christopher (April 29, 2025). "Pierre Poilievre didn't just lose his seat. He also likely lost his home". National Post. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  4. 1 2 Molina, Kimberly (April 30, 2025). "Carleton was Poilievre's riding to lose. When he did, it came as a shock to many". CBC. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  5. 1 2 3 4 Payne, Elizabeth (April 24, 2025). "Pierre Poilievre in a horse race in Carleton as gap with Liberal Bruce Fanjoy tightens". Ottawa Citizen. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  6. ↑ Isai, Vjosa; Bearak, Max (April 29, 2025). "Pierre Poilievre, Canada's Opposition Leader, Loses Seat in Parliament". The New York Times. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  7. 1 2 3 "Liberal Bruce Fanjoy topples Pierre Poilievre in Carleton". CBC. April 29, 2025. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  8. ↑ Van Dyk, Spencer (April 29, 2025). "'He took the riding for granted,' says Liberal who unseated Poilievre". CTV. Retrieved May 3, 2025.
  9. ↑ Payne, Elizabeth (May 8, 2025). "Losing Carleton: Poilievre's defeat in rural Ottawa was years in the making". Ottawa Citizen. Retrieved May 8, 2025.
  10. ↑ Westoll, Nick; Heintz, Lauryn (2025-05-02). "Mark Carney says he will quickly call byelection for Pierre Poilievre, Alberta MP to resign". CityNews Edmonton. Retrieved 2025-05-02.
  11. ↑ Tipper, Stephen (May 2, 2025). "Pierre Poilievre to contest byelection in Alberta riding after Damien Kurek steps down". Calgary Herald . Retrieved 2 May 2025.
  12. ↑ "Voter information service". Elections Canada. Retrieved May 6, 2025.
  13. ↑ "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. Retrieved May 6, 2025.
  14. ↑ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada . Retrieved 9 April 2024.
  15. ↑ "List of confirmed candidates – September 20, 2021 Federal Election". Elections Canada . Retrieved 2 September 2021.
  16. ↑ "Election Night Results – Electoral Districts". Elections Canada . Retrieved 24 September 2021.
  17. ↑ "Candidate Campaign Returns". Elections Canada . Retrieved 19 July 2022.
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