2025 Canadian federal election in Nova Scotia

2025 Canadian federal election in Nova Scotia

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All 11 Nova Scotian seats in the House of Commons
Registered	799,595
Turnout	577,740 (72.25%) [1]
First party Second party Third party   Leader Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic Leader since March 9, 2025 September 10, 2022 October 1, 2017 Last election 8 seats, 42.3% 3 seats, 29.4% 0 seats, 22.1% Seats before 7 3 0 Seats won 10 1 0 Seat change 3 2 0 Popular vote 330,556 203,290 30,129 Percentage 57.2% 35.2% 5.2% Swing 14.9% 5.8% 16.9%
Prime minister before election Mark Carney Liberal Prime minister after election Mark Carney Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 11 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of Nova Scotia (3.2% of all members).

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. Nova Scotia's seat allocation stayed the same at 11 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Nova Scotia is 88,126 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 19,722 less people per electoral district than the national average. ^[2]

Timeline

See also: By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament

Changes in Nova Scotian seats held (2021–2025)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Halifax	August 31, 2024	Andy Fillmore	█  Liberal	Resigned to run for the mayoralty of Halifax, Nova Scotia	April 14, 2025 (cancelled)		█ Vacant

Predictions

See also: Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	LPC	CPC	NDP	GPC	PPC	Others	Margin of error [a]	Sample size [b]	Polling method [c]	Lead
Abacus Data	March 20, 2025	[3]	46	37	12	3	2	1	± 4.1 pp	600	Online	9
Cardinal Research	November 15, 2024	[4]	40	37	17	3	1	—	± 3.5 pp	1046	Telephone	3
Narrative Research	August 18, 2024	[5]	30	43	21	4	2	0	± 2.6 pp	400	Telephone	13

Results

Summary

Nova Scotian summary seat results in the 2025 Canadian federal election

Party		Votes	Vote %	Vote +/-	Seats	Seat +/-
	Liberal	330,556	57.2%	14.9pp	10 / 11 (91%)	3
	Conservative	203,290	35.2%	5.8pp	1 / 11 (9%)	2
	New Democratic	30,129	5.2%	16.9pp	0 / 11 (0%)	0
	Green	5,442	0.9%	1.0pp	0 / 11 (0%)	0
	People's	5,126	0.9%	3.1pp	0 / 11 (0%)	0
	Independents and minor parties	3,197	0.6%	0.3pp	0 / 11 (0%)	0
Total		577,740	100%	–	11 / 11 (100%)	1 [d]

^[6]

Comparison with national results

Results by party

Party		Popular vote %			Seats in caucus
		NS	Natl.	diff.
	Liberal	57.2	43.7	+13.5	10 / 169 (6%)
	Conservative	35.2	41.3	-6.1	1 / 144 (0.7%)
	New Democratic	5.2	6.3	-1.1	0 / 7 (0%)
	Green	0.9	1.2	-0.3	0 / 1 (0%)
	People's	0.9	0.7	+0.2	no caucus
	Total	–	–	–	11 / 343 (3%)

Student vote results

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results. ^[7]

Summary of the 2025 Canadian Student Vote in Nova Scotia

Party		Leader	Seats			Popular vote
			Elected	%	Δ	Votes	%	Δ (pp)
	Liberal	Mark Carney	8	72.73	4	11,460	39.99	11.88
	Conservative	Pierre Poilievre	3	27.27	1	8,611	30.05	9.85
	New Democratic	Jagmeet Singh	0	0	5	3,694	12.89	18.67
	Green	Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault	0	0	0	2,657	9.27	1.65
	People's	Maxime Bernier	0	0	0	1,638	5.72	0.87
	Other		0	0	0	597	2.08	0.54
Total			11	100.00	0	28,657	100.00	–
Source: Student Vote Canada [8]

Notes

1. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
2. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
3. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
4. 1 seat was vacant at the dissolution of Parliament.

References

1. https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
2. "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
3. "Abacus Data Poll: What's Happening in Nova Scotia". Abacus Data. Retrieved March 24, 2024.
4. "Nova Scotia Provincial Polling November 7-15, 2024". Cardinal Research. Retrieved November 21, 2024.
5. https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/24-3-Federal-Voting-Intentions-FINAL.pdf ^{[ bare URL PDF ]}
6. https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
7. "Student Vote Canada".
8. "Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results" . Retrieved April 29, 2025.