338Canada

338Canada

Native name	Qc125
Available in	English
Founded	2017
Country of origin	Canada
Founder(s)	Philippe J. Fournier
URL	qc125.com www.338canada.ca

338Canada, also known as Qc125 in Quebec, is a Canadian political forecasting and commentary website that was founded in 2017. The website provides projections for Canadian elections, as well as French and American presidential elections.

History

338Canada was founded by Philippe J. Fournier in 2017 as an electoral statistics and projections website. ^[1] In 2020 and 2024, the site produced projections for the 2020 United States presidential election and the 2024 United States presidential election. ^{[2] [3]}

2025 Canadian federal election

In January 2025, the site gave the Conservative Party of Canada a >99% chance to win the 2025 Canadian federal election, ^[4] but this has since reversed. ^[5] Fournier called the 2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election a "disaster for the Liberals." ^[6] In April 2025, the month of the election, the projection had switched from a very likely Conservative win to a "safe" win for Mark Carney, of the Liberal Party. ^[7]

Projections

The site creates federal projections, as well as projections for province-level ridings. ^[8] Overall, the site has a 89.7% projection rate across 17 total provincial and federal elections, with the most accurate projection being in the 2024 Nova Scotia general election. ^{[9] [10]}

References

1. "Philippe J. Fournier". POLITICO. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
2. "A final 338Canada U.S. election projection: Where the race will be won or lost". Maclean's. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
3. "Donald Trump's potential path to victory: 338Canada". Maclean’s. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
4. "'Trudeau can't go on like this': Why Canada's PM is under growing pressure to quit". The Times of India. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
5. "'338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats': 338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats". 338Canada. Retrieved 26 March 2025.
6. "Canada's Trudeau to stay in office after special election 'disaster'". Reuters. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
7. "Among riding races for political leaders, Carney 'safe' bet to win; Singh likely to 'lose,' says 338Canada's Fournier". Hill Times. Retrieved 24 April 2025.
8. "Richmond ridings projected by 338Canada.com". Richmond News. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
9. "Federal polls show Conservative wave sweeping much of Nova Scotia". PNI Atlantic News. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
10. "The Record So Far". 338Canada. Retrieved 15 January 2025.