2015 Queensland state election

Last updated

2015 Queensland state election
Flag of Queensland.svg
←  2012 31 January 2015 2017  →
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout89.89 (Decrease2.svg 1.11 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Annastacia Palaszczuk 2016 (crop).jpg Campbell Newman being interviewed (cropped).jpg
KAP
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Campbell Newman Ray Hopper
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since28 March 2012 (2012-03-28)22 March 2011 (2011-03-22)29 November 2012 (2012-11-29)
Leader's seat Inala Ashgrove
(lost seat)		 Condamine
(lost Nanango)
Last election7 seats, 26.66%78 seats, 49.66%2 seats, 11.53%
Seats won44422
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 37Decrease2.svg 36Steady2.svg
Popular vote983,0541,084,06050,588
Percentage37.47%41.32%1.93%
SwingIncrease2.svg 10.81Decrease2.svg 8.33Decrease2.svg 9.61
TPP 51.1%48.9%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 14.0Decrease2.svg 14.0
2015 Queensland state election.svg
Winning margin by electorate.
Premier before election

Campbell Newman
Liberal National

Premier after election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland.

Contents

The centre-right Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Premier Campbell Newman, attempted to win a second term but was defeated by the opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. Labor formed a minority government with the support of the lone independent MP in the chamber, Peter Wellington. It is only the seventh change of government in Queensland since 1915, and only the third time since 1932 that a sitting government in the state has failed to win a second term. Furthermore, Annastacia Palaszczuk became the first woman to win government from opposition in a state election (eventual Chief Minister Clare Martin led the Labor Party to victory from opposition in 2001 at an election in the Northern Territory).

The previous election saw Labor, which had governed the state for all but two years since 1989, suffer the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority government in Queensland history—compared to seven for Labor, two for Katter's Australian Party, and two won by independents. Following Labor's defeat former Premier Anna Bligh retired from politics and was succeeded as party leader by her former Transport Minister, Palaszczuk. Months later, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents, resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. Two by-elections saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Although Labor hoped to regain much of what it lost in its severe defeat of three years earlier, most polls pointed to the LNP being returned for another term with a reduced majority.

On election night, the outcome of the election was inconclusive, though most political analysts projected that the LNP had lost its majority after suffering what ended up being a record 14-point two-party swing. [1] Newman was defeated in his seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor, Kate Jones—only the second time since Federation that a sitting Queensland premier has lost their own seat. With the outcome in his own seat beyond doubt, Newman announced his retirement from politics, though remained as caretaker premier pending the final results. According to projections from both ABC News and Brisbane's The Courier-Mail , Labor had taken at least 30 seats from the LNP, and was very close to picking up the 36-seat swing it needed to form government in its own right—a feat initially thought impossible when the writs were issued. On the day after the election, both outlets had Labor either two or three seats short of a majority. [2] [3] Political analysts opined that the balance of power was likely to rest with Katter's Australian Party and independent Wellington.

Wellington announced on 5 February he would support a Palaszczuk-led Labor minority government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to vote on conscience. [4] On 13 February, the Electoral Commission of Queensland declared the results of the election. Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority, putting Labor in a position to form a minority government in the hung parliament. [5] [6] [7] Even allowing for the LNP's previously overwhelming majority, the 37-seat swing is the second-largest shift of seats against a sitting government in Queensland since Federation, only exceeded by the 44-seat shift against Labor in 2012. Conversely, the two-party swing of 13.7 points in 2012 was exceeded by the 2015 two-party swing of 14.0 points.

Palaszczuk approached Governor Paul de Jersey on 11 February and advised him that she could form a minority government. [8] [9] Palaszczuk and de Jersey met again on 13 February. At that meeting, de Jersey formally invited Palaszczuk to form a government, an invitation that Palaszczuk accepted. On 14 February, Palaszczuk was sworn in as the 39th Premier of Queensland. [10]

Background

The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queensland state election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the Liberal National Party led by Campbell Newman. The election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. Newman was the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having resigned the position to run for Premier.

As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, he chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the 2012 election, and lead the party from outside of parliament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposition Leader in the parliament.

The Labor Party went into the election with a modest margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Labor was defeated in an historic landslide, the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with Newman winning Ashgrove from the former Environment Minister, Kate Jones.

Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter's Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP won two seats. Only two of the independent members were re-elected.

Three by-elections occurred after the 2012 state election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate Anthony Lynham won the 2014 Stafford by-election in July. Jackie Trad held Bligh's former seat of South Brisbane of Labor in an April 2012 by-election, following Bligh's resignation from parliament.

On 5 January 2015, media organisations reported that Newman intended to announce the election date the next day. [11] [12] On 6 January, Newman confirmed on Twitter that he had visited acting governor Tim Carmody and writs had been issued for an election on 31 January. [13] [14] This was the first time in over a century that an Australian general election was held in January. The last January election was held in Tasmania in 1913 and the last on the mainland was the New South Wales colonial election of 1874–75. [15]

The election was held on the same day as the 2015 Davenport state by-election in South Australia.

Key dates

DateEvent
6 January 2015 Writ of election issued by the acting Governor [16]
10 January 2015Close of electoral rolls
13 January 2015Close of nominations
31 January 2015Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
10 February 2015Cut off for the return of postal ballot papers
13 February 2015Election results declared, Annastacia Palaszczuk is asked to form government
14 February 2015Interim Palaszczuk Ministry is sworn in
16 February 2015Full Palaszczuk Ministry sworn in
16 February 2015Writ returned and results formally declared
24 March 201555th Parliament convened

Results

The composition of the Legislative Assembly following the election. Queensland Legislative Assembly 2015.svg
The composition of the Legislative Assembly following the election.
Winning party by electorate. 2015 Queensland state election - Simple Results.svg
Winning party by electorate.
Results of the 2015 Queensland state election, Legislative Assembly
2015 Queensland Legislative Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal National 1,084,06041.32–8.3342-34
Labor 983,05437.47+10.8144+35
Greens 221,1578.43+0.900±0
Palmer United 133,9295.11+5.110±0
Katter's Australian 50,5881.93–9.612±0
Family First 31,2311.19–0.170±0
One Nation 24,1110.92+0.820±0
Independents 95,3133.63+0.471–1
Total2,623,443100.00–89–
Valid votes2,623,44397.89
Invalid/blank votes56,4312.11–0.05
Total votes2,679,874100.00–
Registered voters/turnout2,981,14589.89–1.11
Gallagher Index for the 2015 Queensland state election
PartyVotes (%)Seats (%)DifferenceDifference
squared
Liberal National 41.32%47.19%5.8734.4569
Labor 37.47%49.44%11.97143.2809
Greens 8.43%0.00%-8.4371.0649
Palmer United 5.11%0.00%-5.1126.1121
Katter 1.93%2.25%0.320.1024
Family First 1.19%0.00%-1.191.4161
One Nation 0.92%0.00%-0.920.8464
Independent 3.63%1.12%-2.516.3001
Total of differences squared283.5798
Total / 2141.7899
Square root of (Total / 2): Gallagher Index result11.91
The Gallagher Index ranges from 0 to 100. Low indexes (close to 0)
are very proportionate, high indexes (20 or greater) are very disproportionate.
Popular vote
LNP
 
41.32%
Labor
 
37.47%
Greens
 
8.43%
Palmer United
 
5.11%
Katter's
 
1.93%
Family First
 
1.19%
One Nation
 
0.92%
Independents
 
3.63%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
 
51.1%
LNP
 
48.9%
Seats
Labor
 
49.44%
LNP
 
47.19%
Katter's
 
2.25%
Independents
 
1.12%

Seats changing hands

Seat2012 ElectionSwing2015 Election [17]
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Algester  Liberal National Anthony Shorten 9.15−16.146.99 Leeanne Enoch Labor 
Ashgrove  Liberal National Campbell Newman 5.70−9.954.25 Kate Jones Labor 
Barron River Liberal National Michael Trout 9.48−12.603.12 Craig Crawford Labor
Brisbane Central  Liberal National Robert Cavallucci 4.88−8.133.25 Grace Grace Labor 
Bulimba  Liberal National Aaron Dillaway 0.14−6.286.14 Di Farmer Labor 
Bundaberg  Liberal National Jack Dempsey 18.17−19.791.62 Leanne Donaldson Labor 
Cairns  Liberal National Gavin King 8.87−17.328.45 Rob Pyne Labor 
Capalaba  Liberal National Steve Davies 3.73−10.797.06 Don Brown Labor 
Cook  Liberal National David Kempton 3.43−10.206.77 Billy Gordon Labor 
Ferny Grove  Liberal National Dale Shuttleworth 9.52−10.340.82 Mark Furner Labor 
Gladstone  Independent Liz Cunningham 14.03−25.9311.89 Glenn Butcher Labor 
Greenslopes  Liberal National Ian Kaye 2.45−6.704.25 Joe Kelly Labor 
Ipswich  Liberal National Ian Berry 4.19−20.0915.90 Jennifer Howard Labor 
Ipswich West  Liberal National Sean Choat 7.16−14.887.71 Jim Madden Labor 
Kallangur  Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg 12.43−18.576.13 Shane King Labor 
Keppel  Liberal National Bruce Young 6.39−11.194.80 Brittany Lauga Labor 
Logan  Liberal National Michael Pucci 4.80−15.6310.82 Linus Power Labor 
Lytton  Liberal National Neil Symes 1.58−11.379.80 Joan Pease Labor 
Maryborough  Liberal National Anne Maddern 0.31−1.961.65 Bruce Saunders Labor 
Mirani  Liberal National Ted Malone 11.19−16.014.82 Jim Pearce Labor 
Morayfield  Liberal National Darren Grimwade 5.57−17.4911.91 Mark Ryan Labor 
Mount Coot-tha  Liberal National Saxon Rice 5.36−7.942.59 Steven Miles Labor 
Mundingburra  Liberal National David Crisafulli 10.19−12.952.76 Coralee O'Rourke Labor 
Murrumba  Liberal National Reg Gulley 9.52−16.887.35 Chris Whiting Labor 
Nudgee  Liberal National Jason Woodforth 3.11−14.3611.25 Leanne Linard Labor 
Pine Rivers  Liberal National Seath Holswich 13.66−21.347.68 Nikki Boyd Labor 
Pumicestone  Liberal National Lisa France 12.07−14.162.08 Rick Williams Labor 
Sandgate  Liberal National Kerry Millard 2.87−12.9610.10 Stirling Hinchliffe Labor 
Springwood  Liberal National John Grant 15.39−17.131.73 Mick de Brenni Labor 
Stretton  Liberal National Freya Ostapovitch 9.55−14.544.98 Duncan Pegg Labor 
Sunnybank  Liberal National Mark Stewart 10.23−17.427.19 Peter Russo Labor 
Thuringowa  Liberal National Sam Cox 1.38−6.925.54 Aaron Harper Labor 
Townsville  Liberal National John Hathaway 4.83−10.525.69 Scott Stewart Labor 
Waterford  Liberal National Mike Latter 1.04−14.3713.33 Shannon Fentiman Labor 
Yeerongpilly  Liberal National Carl Judge 11.44−14.7413.30 Mark Bailey Labor 

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP0.82%
Bundaberg Leanne Donaldson ALP1.62%
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP1.65%
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP1.73%
Pumicestone Rick Williams ALP2.08%
Mount Coot-tha Steven Miles ALP2.59%
Mundingburra Coralee O'Rourke ALP2.76%
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP3.12%
Brisbane Central Grace Grace ALP3.25%
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP4.25%
Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP4.25%
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP4.80%
Mirani Jimmy Pearce ALP4.82%
Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP4.98%
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP5.54%
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP5.69%
Fairly safe
Kallangur Shane King ALP6.13%
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP6.14%
Cook Billy Gordon ALP6.77%
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP6.99%
Capalaba Don Brown ALP7.06%
Sunnybank Peter Russo ALP7.19%
Murrumba Chris Whiting ALP7.35%
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP7.58%
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP7.68%
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP7.71%
Cairns Rob Pyne ALP8.45%
Stafford Anthony Lynham ALP9.59%
Lytton Joan Pease ALP9.80%
Safe
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP10.10%
Logan Linus Power ALP10.82%
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP11.25%
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP11.91%
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP11.89% v IND
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP12.39%
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP12.76%
Yeerongpilly Mark Bailey ALP13.30%
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP13.33%
South Brisbane Jackie Trad ALP13.79%
Rockhampton William Byrne ALP13.87%
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP15.90%
Very safe
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP21.43%
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP25.12%
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP25.95%
Non-government seats
Marginal
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP0.22% v ONP
Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith LNP0.23%
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP0.38%
Mansfield Ian Walker LNP0.55%
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP1.41%
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP1.61%
Albert Mark Boothman LNP1.67%
Everton Tim Mander LNP1.77%
Redlands Matt McEachan LNP2.23%
Gaven Sid Cramp LNP2.24%
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP2.62%
Burdekin Dale Last LNP2.88%
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP3.24%
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP3.82%
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP5.17%
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP5.23%
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP5.45%
Fairly safe
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP6.16%
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP6.62%
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP6.67% v PUP
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP6.73%
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP6.80%
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP7.10%
Broadwater Verity Barton LNP7.19%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP7.21%
Beaudesert Jon Krause LNP7.53%
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP8.21%
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP8.53%
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP8.62% v GRN
Toowoomba South John McVeigh LNP8.89%
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP8.92%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP9.27%
Safe
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP10.09%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP10.97%
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP11.07%
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP12.16%
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP12.93%
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP13.16%
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP15.43%
Condamine Pat Weir LNP16.28%
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP19.20%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP19.21%
Crossbench seats
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND14.89 v LNP
Dalrymple Shane Knuth KAP15.10 v LNP
Mount Isa Robbie Katter KAP15.19 v LNP

Subsequent changes

Aftermath

Labor regained power mainly on the strength of recovering much of what it had lost in Brisbane at the 2012 election. Brisbane had been Labor's power base for more than a quarter-century; Labor had gone into the 2012 election holding 36 of the capital's 40 seats, losing all but three at the election. In 2015, however, Labor won 28 seats in Brisbane. The LNP was still in a position to hope for a minority government primarily by sweeping the Gold Coast, albeit in most cases by somewhat smaller margins than in 2012.

Although Queensland is Australia's least centralised state, since the abolition of the Bjelkemander it has been extremely difficult to form even a minority government without a strong base in Brisbane. The 2015 election underscored this. None of the LNP's safe seats (greater than 10 percent 2PP) were located in Brisbane. The LNP's safest seat, Moggill, only had a majority of 8.2 percent, putting it on the strong side of fairly safe. In contrast, all but two of Labor's safe seats were in the capital.

Following the election, the Palmer United Party candidate for Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, was revealed to be an undischarged bankrupt and was therefore ineligible to run. The revelation spurred speculation that there may need to be a by-election to resolve the seat. [18] The Electoral Commission of Queensland initially released a statement on 8 February saying that it would declare the seat, and then refer the issue to the Supreme Court of Queensland sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The statement raised a by-election as a possible outcome. [19]

Lawrence Springborg, who succeeded Newman as LNP leader on 7 February, called for the caretaker government to continue until after a possible Ferny Grove by-election is held, citing both the uncertainty of a hung parliament and doubt over the status of Ferny Grove. [20] Conversely, ABC election analyst Antony Green believed that the Ferny Grove outcome and possible by-election would not affect who forms government. [21] Professor Graeme Orr, an electoral law expert at University of Queensland, labelled the prospect of the LNP maintaining a caretaker government until a possible by-election analogous to a "constitutional coup". Orr also reasoned that the law and facts were against a Ferny Grove by-election. [22] The Electoral Commission of Queensland declared Ferny Grove had been won by the Labor candidate Mark Furner over LNP incumbent Dale Shuttleworth on 11 February, signalling that it would soon refer the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns. [23] Green analysed the Ferny Grove tally and concluded that Taverner did not have an effect on the outcome of the election. Specifically, Green concluded that at most, 353 of Taverner's ballot papers had exhausted. However, Furner would have still won even if all of those votes had gone to Shuttleworth had Taverner not been on the ballot. To Green's mind, this made it extremely difficult to argue that exhausted preferences alone would be enough to demand a by-election in Ferny Grove. [24]

On 13 February the Electoral Commission of Queensland stated that, based on legal advice, they would not be referring the Ferny Grove result to the Court of Disputed Returns. This formally cleared the way for a Labor minority government, and Governor Paul de Jersey invited Palaszczuk to form a government later that day. The LNP stated they were considering their legal options, with Springborg later releasing a statement where he "congratulate[d] incoming Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her government". [25] [26] On 16 February the LNP announced it would not be challenging the Ferny Grove result. [27]

Retiring MPs

Members who were deselected or who chose not to renominate were as follows:

Labor

LNP

Independent

Opinion polling

Primary vote opinion polling graph

Two-party preferred opinion polling graph

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
LNP ALP GRN PUP KAP OTHLNPALP
29 Jan 2015Essential [38] 39%38%7%5%2%9%50%50%
29 Jan 2015Newspoll [39] 41%37%6%3%2%11%52%48%
29 Jan 2015Galaxy [40] 38%39%10%5%2%10%46%54%
20 Jan 2015ReachTEL [41] 42%36.7%8.4%5.2%—7.6%52%48%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [42] 39.5%37%10%4%3.5%6%50.5%49.5%
7–8 Jan 2015 Galaxy [43] 41%38%8%3%3%7%52%48%
6–8 Jan 2015Newspoll [44] 42%37%7%1%1%12%53%47%
6 Jan 2015ReachTEL [45] 40.3%38.1%7.6%6.3%—7.7%50%50%
28 Nov 2014ReachTEL [45] 39.2%37.3%7.9%6.5%—9.1%49%51%
21–24 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [46] 39%36.5%9.5%4%3.5%7.5%50.5%49.5%
18–19 Nov 2014Galaxy [43] 37%38%9%7%3%6%50%50%
Oct–Dec 2014 Newspoll 37%36%10%—1%*16%50%50%
24–27 Oct 2014Roy Morgan [47] 38.5%38%10%6%2%5.5%49.5%50.5%
9 Oct 2014ReachTEL [45] 40.9%36.6%7.6%7.2%—7.7%51%49%
26–29 Sept 2014Roy Morgan [48] 42%35.5%9%6.5%2.5%4.5%51%49%
4 Sept 2014ReachTEL [45] 41.2%36%6%9.5%—7.2%51%49%
12–14 Aug 2014Galaxy [43] 39%36%7%12%3%3%52%48%
Jul–Sep 2014Newspoll39%32%10%—1%*18%54%46%
7 Aug 2014ReachTEL [45] 41%34.4%5.5%12.6%—6.5%52%48%
3 Jul 2014ReachTEL [45] 38.7%34.4%6.1%15.4%—5.4%51%49%
5 Jun 2014ReachTEL [45] 40.9%34.1%5.2%13.6%—6.3%53%47%
21–22 May 2014Galaxy [49] 43%34%8%—5%10%55%45%
Apr–Jun 2014Newspoll32%34%8%—2%*24%49%51%
2 Apr 2014ReachTEL [50] 39.1%35.1%7.3%8.0%3.3%3.0%——
Jan–Mar 2014Newspoll40%36%8%—1%*15%52%48%
Oct–Dec 2013Newspoll40%32%8%—2%*18%55%45%
10 Jul 2013ReachTEL [51] 43.3%37.0%5.1%4.5%5.7%4.4%——
23 May 2013ReachTEL [52] 44.6%28.2%9.0%†10.4%7.8%——
Apr–Jun 2013Newspoll44%29%10%†3%*14%59%41%
19 Apr 2013ReachTEL [53] 45.1%29.2%7.7%†12.7%5.4%——
23 Mar – 2 Apr 2013ReachTEL [54] 45.8%30.4%8.2%†9.9%5.6%——
20 Mar 2013ReachTEL [55] 47.8%30.2%8.0%†10.1%3.9%——
22 Feb 2013ReachTEL [56] 47.1%28.9%7.9%†11.5%4.5%——
Jan–Mar 2013Newspoll49%27%6%†3%*15%62%38%
18 Jan 2013ReachTEL [57] 42.5%34.9%8.4%†10.5%3.6%——
14 Dec 2012ReachTEL [58] 41.9%32.1%8.2%†12.1%5.7%——
23 Nov 2012ReachTEL [59] 42%34.2%9.5%†8.9%5.4%——
Oct–Dec 2012Newspoll42%31%8%†4%*15%56%44%
12 Oct 2012ReachTEL [60] 44.6%30.5%7.5%†11%6.4%——
14 Sept 2012ReachTEL [61] 44.7%34.7%7%†9.4%4.1%——
17 Aug 2012ReachTEL [62] 44.2%31.6%9.2%†9.6%5.4%——
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012Roy Morgan [63] 51%27.5%7.5%†5%9%59%41%
2 Jul 2012ReachTEL [61] [64] 56.5%21.8%9.4%†7.4%4.8%——
Jul–Sep 2012Newspoll48%30%9%†1%*12%60%40%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012Roy Morgan [65] 54.5%28%7.5%†3.5%6.5%62%38%
28 March 2012 Annastacia Palaszczuk becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
24 Mar 2012 election 49.7%26.7%7.5%†11.5%4.6%62.8%37.2%
20–22 Mar 2012Newspoll50%28%6%†‡16%60.8%39.2%
20–21 Mar 2012Roy Morgan [66] 51%28%7.5%†8.5%5%62%38%
* KAP is not offered as a choice on Newspoll, individuals must nominate them, as such KAP is included as "Others".
† Palmer United Party announced in April 2013 [67] and registered in June 2013, [68] as such, there is no polling data before this point.
‡ KAP part of others prior to election. **On the final Newpoll (29 January 2015), PUP is included with the others total (14%), but a provided footnote shows them to have support of 3% of voters.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Better Premier

Approval ratings

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter PremierNewmanPalaszczuk
NewmanPalaszczukSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
27–29 Jan 2015 Newspoll [39] 43%42%35%58%38%40%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [42] 48.5%51.5%not asked
6–8 Jan 2015 Newspoll [44] 42%38%41%51%38%38%
21–24 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [46] 47.5%52.5%not asked
Oct–Dec 2014Newspoll44%35%38%51%38%34%
24–27 Oct 2014Roy Morgan [47] 47.5%52.5%not asked
26–29 Sept 2014Roy Morgan [48] 50%50%not asked
Jul–Sep 2014Newspoll41%35%35%54%36%36%
Apr–Jun 2014Newspoll39%35%33%57%35%37%
Jan–Mar 2014Newspoll41%35%36%54%38%30%
Oct–Dec 2013Newspoll45%32%40%48%36%31%
Apr–Jun 2013Newspoll49%26%41%46%34%33%
Jan–Mar 2013Newspoll53%21%43%45%33%33%
Oct–Dec 2012Newspoll45%29%38%48%34%30%
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012Roy Morgan [63] 62.5%20.5%51%36%33%28.5%
Jul–Sep 2012Newspoll55%21%47%38%29%30%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012Roy Morgan [65] 67.5%16%53%26.5%26.5%21%
28 March 2012 Palaszczuk replaces BlighNewman Bligh NewmanBligh
24 Mar 2012 election ––––––
20–22 Mar 2012Newspoll51%36%47%40%36%58%
20–21 Mar 2012Roy Morgan [66] 48%35%53%34.5%38.5%53.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

See also

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References

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