2024 Queensland state election

Last updated

2024 Queensland state election
Flag of Queensland.svg
←  2020 26 October 20242028 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Dr Steven Miles MP (cropped).jpg DC 2022 (cropped).jpg Robbie Katter with hat at lookout (cropped).jpg
Leader Steven Miles David Crisafulli Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 15 December 2023 12 November 2020 2 February 2015
Leader's seat Murrumba Broadwater Traeger
Last election52 seats, 39.57%34 seats, 35.89%3 seats, 2.48%
Current seats51 [lower-alpha 1] 35 [lower-alpha 1] 3
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 12Increase2.svg 44
  Greens placeholder-01.png
ON
LeaderNo leaderNo leader
Party Greens One Nation
Last election2 seats, 9.47% 1 seat, 7.12%
Current seats21
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 45Increase2.svg 46
2024 Queensland state election.svg
Map of electoral districts to be used at the election
Incumbent Premier

Steven Miles
Labor



The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years. [1] [2]

Contents

The Labor government will attempt to win a fourth term against the Liberal National Party, currently led by David Crisafulli, Queensland Greens, Legalise Cannabis Queensland and various other parties and independents. On 10 December 2023, Annastacia Palaszczuk announced her resignation after more than eight years in government, prompting a leadership vote to elect a new leader and subsequently Premier. [3]

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.

The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.

Key dates

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October. [4] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Background

Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned as premier in 2023 and was succeeded by Steven Miles. [5] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West. [6] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP. [7]

Campaign

The LNP is campaigning heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at the "Super Saturday" elections in the state (where local government elections were held alongside two by-elections in the traditionally Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West, the latter being gained by the LNP) with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues. [8] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes. [9]

Opinion polling and betting odds have the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier. [10] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years. [11]

Candidates

Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election. [12] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023. [13]

Preferences

One Nation leader and federal Senator Pauline Hanson confirmed that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her distrust of both major parties. [14]

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal National

Electoral pendulum

This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP6.3
Inala Margie Nightingale ALP6.7  [lower-roman 1]
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP6.7
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP9.9
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP11.4
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP11.9
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP13.2
Logan Linus Power ALP13.4
Lytton Joan Pease ALP13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP13.8
Stretton James Martin ALP13.9  [lower-roman 2]
Toohey Peter Russo ALP14.4
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP v ONP20.7
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP26.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP1.3
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP1.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP3.3
Ipswich West Darren Zanow LNP3.5  [lower-roman 3]
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP11.4
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP14.1
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP19.2
Callide Bryson Head LNP21.7  [lower-roman 4]
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN v ALP5.3
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN v LNP6.3
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP v ALP9.0
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP v LNP14.8
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND v LNP15.8
Hill Shane Knuth KAP v ALP22.5
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP v ALP24.7
Notes
  1. ↑ In 2024 there was a by-election after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned from her seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  2. ↑ In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  3. ↑ In 2024 there was a by-election after Labor MP Jim Madden resigned from his seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  4. ↑ In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

Opinion polling

Notes

  1. 1 2 Labor lost the seat of Ipswich West to the LNP at a by-election in 2024, increasing the LNP's seat total to 35 and decreasing Labor's seat total to 51.

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References

  1. ↑ The Queensland Electoral System Queensland Parliament
  2. ↑ Queensland referendum: Vote on four-year parliamentary terms passes ABC News 5 April 2016
  3. ↑ Remeikis, Amy (10 December 2023). "Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk retires from politics". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 10 December 2023.
  4. ↑ "Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015" (PDF). www.legislation.qld.gov.au.
  5. ↑ Remeikis, Amy (10 December 2023). "Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk retires from politics". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  6. ↑ "'Send a strong message': Why a Labor seat could be in play in Queensland's upcoming by-election". ABC News. 8 March 2024. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  7. ↑ "Shockwaves as voters deliver Miles government a huge blow in by-elections". 7NEWS. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  8. ↑ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-18/qld-what-now-for-labor-after-very-bad-by-election-results/103598442
  9. ↑ https://www.9news.com.au/national/queensland-election-results-steven-miles-labor/91a78e2f-ca9e-4db2-92c4-24943b6d1b26
  10. ↑ https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fsteven-miles-says-election-wipeout-very-likely-as-new-poll-puts-lnp-in-box-seat%2Fnews-story%2F7ec5fecda60b5a839b958decfe05f957&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append&nk=10fc24e8df3cec35599142367b446702-1714116206
  11. ↑ https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TBWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.townsvillebulletin.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fyougov-poll-steven-miles-more-unpopular-than-campbell-newman-before-2014-election-defeat%2Fnews-story%2F501b518ab9e7194dbe636b4f4afec6d0&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
  12. ↑ Cosoleto, Tara (26 March 2023). "LNP names candidates 18 months out from Queensland poll". Brisbane Times . AAP . Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  13. ↑ McCarthy, Isaac (6 October 2023). "Katters announce Malanda man, ex-SAS soldier Bruce Logan as Cook candidate" . Cairns Post. Retrieved 19 October 2023.
  14. ↑ https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fstate-election%2Fone-nation-to-preference-lnp-at-queensland-state-election-in-october-despite-pauline-hansons-distrust-of-david-crisafulli%2Fnews-story%2F696ea31c756fb37531a6e9a0455a6a66&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE
  15. ↑ Elks, Sarah (11 October 2023). "Stirling Hinchliffe calls it quits after 17 years to 'put family first'". The Australian. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  16. ↑ Johnson, Hayden (13 November 2023). "Premier to lose another Labor MP at 2024 poll". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 14 November 2023.
  17. ↑ McKenna, Kate (22 February 2024). "Queensland Attorney-General Yvette D'Ath to quit politics at the end of the year". ABC News. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  18. ↑ McCormack, Madura (16 June 2023). "Oodgeroo MP Mark Robinson confirms retirement at next election, paving way for Amanda Stoker's political comeback". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
  19. ↑ McCormack, Madura (6 September 2023). "LNP MP for Burleigh Michael Hart won't recontest 2024 state election". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
  20. ↑ Gall, Sally (18 October 2023). "Gregory MP calls time on representing largest electorate in Queensland". Queensland Country Life. Retrieved 21 October 2023.
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