2024 Queensland state election

Last updated

2024 Queensland state election
Flag of Queensland.svg
←  2020 26 October 2024 2028  →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered3,683,368
Turnout3,231,968 (87.74%)
(Decrease2.svg0.2 pp)
 First partySecond party
  David Crisafulli 2024.jpg Steven Miles official portrait (cropped).jpg
Leader David Crisafulli Steven Miles
Party Liberal National Labor
Leader since12 November 2020 15 December 2023
Leader's seat Broadwater Murrumba
Last election34 seats, 35.89%52 seats, 39.57%
Seats before35 [a] 51 [a]
Seats won5236
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 17Decrease2.svg 15
First-preference vote1,289,5351,011,211
Percentage41.5%32.6%
SwingIncrease2.svg 5.6Decrease2.svg 7.0
TPP 53.8%46.2%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 7.0Decrease2.svg 7.0
 Third partyFourth party
  Robbie Katter with hat at lookout (crop).jpg Greens placeholder-01.png
Leader Robbie Katter No leader
Party Katter's Australian Greens
Leader since2 February 2015
Leader's seat Traeger
Last election3 seats, 2.48%2 seats, 9.47%
Seats before4 [b] 2
Seats won31
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1
First-preference vote75,773307,178
Percentage2.4%9.9%
SwingDecrease2.svg 0.1Increase2.svg 0.4
2024 Queensland state election map.svg
Winning margin by electorate.
Premier before election

Steven Miles
Labor

Subsequent Premier

David Crisafulli
Liberal National

The 2024 Queensland state election was held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years. [1] [2]

Contents

The election was the first since 2006 to feature two men leading the major parties. The opposition Liberal National Party (LNP) led by David Crisafulli defeated the incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Steven Miles after three terms in government. [3] Katter's Australian Party and the Queensland Greens also held seats in parliament, while other parties that contested the election included Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Legalise Cannabis Queensland, [4] other minor parties as well as independents.

The LNP's victory was not clear until late on the night of the election count, when analysts projected Labor had lost their majority and the LNP was on track to form a majority government. [5] Crisafulli declared victory in a late-night speech following the close of polls, however Miles initially held back on conceding pending further counting in several seats, though by the following morning he conceded defeat at a press conference. [6] [7]

The LNP won 52 seats in the assembly (enough for a six-seat majority), with a positive swing of over five and a half percentage points on first-preference (primary) votes translating into a net 17-seat gain. Labor by contrast had a swing against them of seven percent, losing a net 15 seats and leaving them on 36 seats. Katter's Australian Party (KAP) retained three of their seats, though former One Nation MP Stephen Andrew, who joined KAP six weeks prior to the election and boosted the party's seat figure in parliament to four, lost the seat of Mirani to the LNP. The Greens were targeting victories in multiple seats throughout metropolitan Brisbane after strong performances at the 2022 federal election, [8] however their primary vote stagnated and the party's representation in parliament was halved, winning only one seat (Maiwar). Independent Sandy Bolton retained the seat of Noosa. [9]

Crisafulli was sworn in as Queensland's 41st Premier by Governor Jeannette Young on 28 October, alongside his deputy Jarrod Bleijie. [10] The pair formed an interim ministry, with the full ministry sworn in later in the week. [11]

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference preferential voting for single-member electorates. The election is conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland. The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) forms the government. If no majority emerges, then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly forms government as a minority government.

The party or coalition that wins the second-highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independent candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Legislative Council, was abolished in 1922.

Key dates

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October. [12] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Background

After suffering a landslide defeat at the 2012 state election, the Labor Party achieved a 37-seat swing and returned to power in Queensland at the 2015 state election under the leadership of Annastacia Palaszczuk. Initially forming a minority government, they later won a majority at the 2017 state election, and further increased their number of seats in 2020 at an election overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Palaszczuk resigned as Premier in December 2023 and was succeeded by her deputy, Steven Miles. [14] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West. [15] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP. [16]

Registered parties

The following parties are registered with Queensland Electoral Commission: [17]

Campaign

The LNP campaigned heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at by-elections, held in March 2024, with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues. [18] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes. [19]

Opinion polling and betting odds had the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier. [20] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years. [21]

In August 2024, Miles announced a policy of state-owned petrol stations, [22] [23] [24] while Crisafulli promised to re-introduce optional preferential voting, which was previously used in Queensland from 1992 to 2015, and is currently used at a state level in New South Wales and Tasmania. [25]

The lack of affordable rentals, and rent increases emerged as a major issue over the campaign. In Brisbane, median advertised rents increased by 49 per cent from the start of the COVID pandemic to December 2023. [26]

On 26 September Miles suggested Labor would consider introducing a cap of 10% on the amount rent can increase each year. [27] Miles subsequently came under pressure by property industry lobbyists to rule out the policy, with Queensland Greens MP, Amy MacMahon commenting “Make no mistake, the only reason Labor is finally considering something they've opposed for years is because they're under massive pressure from the Greens this election,”. [28] Support for rent caps was expressed by social housing peak body Queensland Shelter.

A YouGov poll commissioned by the Queensland Greens published by Seven News on 2 October and the Courier Mail 3 October indicated 54% of Queenslanders polled supported rent increases being capped at 1% annually, with 60% of Labor voters, 44% of LNP voters and 70% of Greens voters supporting the policy. [29]

A leaders debate was held on the 3rd of October broadcast by Channel 9, 4BC radio and the Brisbane Times. [30] An online reader poll with 64,000 votes conducted by the Brisbane Times declared opposition Leader David Crisafulli won the debate with 57% of the vote. [31]

Miles and Crisafulli ruled out introducing a rent cap during the leaders debate. [32]

In 2 October 2024, Labor's Miles announced a policy of a state-owned energy retailer. [33] [34] On 13 October 2024, Labor announced a policy of Free school meals. [35]

A second leaders debate between the LNP and ALP leaders was held on the 16th of October.

A final leaders debate between the ALP and LNP leaders was hosted by Sky News and The Courier-Mail People’s Forum on October 22. [36] The debate consisted of 100 undecided voters picked by YouGov, who would then be chosen to ask questions to the leaders. The results of the debate are as follows: 39% Miles, 35% Crisafulli, and 26% still undecided. [37]

Controversy

Certain individual candidates attracted controversy during the course of the campaign, in particular for insensitivity regarding Nazi symbolism. [38] [39] [40]

Results

3611352
ALPGRNINDKAPLNP
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout TBD (CV) [9] [41] [42]
PartyVotes%SwingSeats+/–
  Liberal National 1,289,53541.52+5.6352Increase2.svg 17
  Labor 1,011,21132.56−7.0136Decrease2.svg 15
  Greens 307,1789.89+0.421Decrease2.svg 1
  One Nation 248,3348.00+0.880Steady2.svg
  Katter's Australian 75,7732.44–0.083Decrease2.svg 1
  Family First 57,8261.86+1.860Steady2.svg
  Independents 52,6571.69−0.791Steady2.svg
  Legalise Cannabis 49,6211.60+0.690Steady2.svg
  Animal Justice 9,6690.31−0.030Steady2.svg
  Libertarian 4,1410.13+0.130Steady2.svg
 Formal votes3,105,94596.10−0.50
 Informal votes126,0233.90+0.50
 Total 3,231,96810093
 Registered voters / turnout3,683,36887.74−0.17
Two-party-preferred vote
Liberal National 1,669,79953.8Increase2.svg 7.0
Labor 1,436,14646.2Decrease2.svg 7.0

Seats changing hands

Members in italics did not recontest their seats.

SeatPre-electionSwingPost-election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Barron River Labor Craig Crawford 3.16.83.7 Bree James Liberal National
Caloundra Labor Jason Hunt 2.54.31.8 Kendall Morton Liberal National
Capalaba Labor Don Brown 9.811.71.9 Russell Field Liberal National
Cook Labor Cynthia Lui 6.311.25.0 David Kempton Liberal National
Hervey Bay Labor Adrian Tantari 2.010.48.4 David Lee Liberal National
Ipswich West Liberal National Darren Zanow [c] 14.4 (ALP)10.4 (LNP)3.9 Wendy Bourne Labor
Keppel Labor Brittany Lauga 5.616.110.5 Nigel Hutton Liberal National
Mackay Labor Julieanne Gilbert 6.717.210.4 Nigel Dalton Liberal National
Maryborough Labor Bruce Saunders 11.914.62.7 John Barounis Liberal National
Mirani Katter's Australian Stephen Andrew [d] 9.0 (ONP)50.90.9 Glen Kelly Liberal National
Mulgrave Labor Curtis Pitt 12.215.43.1 Terry James Liberal National
Mundingburra Labor Les Walker 3.913.39.4 Janelle Poole Liberal National
Nicklin Labor Robert Skelton 0.12.82.7 Marty Hunt Liberal National
Pumicestone Labor Ali King 5.35.70.4 Ariana Doolan Liberal National
Redcliffe Labor Yvette D'Ath 6.19.23.1 Kerri-Anne Dooley Liberal National
Redlands Labor Kim Richards 3.95.81.9 Rebecca Young Liberal National
Rockhampton Labor Barry O'Rourke 8.610.41.8 Donna Kirkland Liberal National
South Brisbane Greens Amy MacMahon 5.311.46.1 Barbara O'Shea Labor
Thuringowa Labor Aaron Harper 3.213.29.9 Natalie Marr Liberal National
Townsville Labor Scott Stewart 3.18.75.6 Adam Baillie Liberal National

Candidates

A total of 525 candidates from nine political parties (or independent) will contest the election. It is the second-most contested election by nominated candidates in Queensland history, behind the previous election (2020). [43] [44]

Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election. [45] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023. [46]

Labor, the LNP, and the Greens have announced candidates in all 93 electorates. [47] Pauline Hanson announced 2 October her One Nation Party would also be contesting every seat. [48]

Preferences

Candidates and parties may publish recommendations to voters on How-to-vote cards and other materials indicating how that candidate or party suggests a voter should order their ballot under the state's full-preference instant-runoff voting system. Voters must number every candidate on the ballot paper to cast a formal vote. A candidate or party cannot determine the order a vote is distributed for a voter. Preference deals refer to parties or candidates agreeing to order recommendations on each other's how-to-vote materials that are favourable to the other.

Liberal National

In late 2023, it was reported in The Australian that Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli considered preferencing the Greens over Labor at the upcoming state election. [49] Crisafulli told the newspaper: "Now, the same doesn't happen on the other side of the draw – the preferences on the right don't flow in the same way that the Greens' preferences flow to Labor," adding: "So it is a corrupt system... and I have a big concern about the prospect of a Labor–Greens coalition. They will say no deals... but they've said that before and they then broke the promise anyway. So I am deeply concerned by that." [49]

On 1 October 2024, the LNP officially announced they would preference Labor over the Greens at the state election. [50]

One Nation

One Nation leader and federal Senator for Queensland, Pauline Hanson, confirmed in February 2024 that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her reported distrust of both major parties. [51]

Labor

Retiring Labor MP and Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath claimed on 24 August the that the Greens were "happy to do deals" with the LNP to get more members elected to parliament. While Ms D'Ath issued a plea to voters to not replace Labor MPs with Greens members, she refused to concede that the polling showed a progressive swing among inner-city residents. [52]

Labor is giving preferences to Legalise Cannabis ahead of the Greens in 28 seats. [53]

Greens

The Queensland Greens had previously ruled out doing any preference deal with the LNP in 2024. [54]

Katter

The Katter's Australian Party will give its preference to the LNP in North Queensland seats. [55]

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal National

Electoral pendulum

Pre-election pendulum

Extended content

This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics are not contesting the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP6.3
Inala Margie Nightingale ALP6.7  [i]
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP6.7
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP9.8
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP11.4
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP11.9
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP13.2
Logan Linus Power ALP13.4
Lytton Joan Pease ALP13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP13.8
Stretton James Martin ALP13.9  [ii]
Toohey Peter Russo ALP14.4
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP v ONP20.7
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP26.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP1.3
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP1.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP3.3
Ipswich West Darren Zanow LNP3.5  [iii]
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP11.4
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP14.1
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP19.2
Callide Bryson Head LNP21.7  [iv]
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN v ALP5.3
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN v LNP6.3
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP v ALP9.0
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP v LNP14.8
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND v LNP15.8
Hill Shane Knuth KAP v ALP22.5
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP v ALP24.7
Notes
  1. ↑ In 2024 there was a by-election after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned from her seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  2. ↑ In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  3. ↑ In 2024 there was a by-election after Labor MP Jim Madden resigned from his seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  4. ↑ In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

Post-election pendulum

Extended content
Government seats (52)
Marginal
Pumicestone Ariana Doolan LNP0.4%
Mirani Glen Kelly LNP1.0% v KAP
Caloundra Kendall Morton LNP1.8%
Rockhampton Donna Kirkland LNP1.8%
Redlands Rebecca Young LNP1.9%
Capalaba Russell Field LNP1.9%
Mulgrave Terry James LNP2.7%
Nicklin Marty Hunt LNP2.7%
Maryborough John Barounis LNP2.8%
Redcliffe Kerri-Anne Dooley LNP2.9%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP3.5%
Barron River Bree James LNP3.7%
Cook David Kempton LNP5.0%
Everton Tim Mander LNP5.3%
Townsville Adam Baillie LNP5.6%
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP5.6%
Fairly safe
Hervey Bay David Lee LNP8.4%
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP8.5%
Mundingburra Janelle Poole LNP9.2%
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP9.3%
Thuringowa Natalie Marr LNP9.9%
Safe
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP10.0%
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP10.2%
Mackay Nigel Dalton LNP10.2%
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP10.5%
Keppel Nigel Hutton LNP10.5%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP10.9%
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP11.2%
Oodgeroo Amanda Stoker LNP11.8%
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP12.3%
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP12.7%
Burleigh Hermann Vorster LNP12.8%
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP13.0%
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP13.0%
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP13.1%
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP13.7%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP13.9%
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP14.8%
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP15.4%
Burderkin Dale Last LNP15.8%
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP16.1%
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP16.5%
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP18.5%
Southern Downs James Lister LNP18.6% v ONP
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP19.2%
Very safe
Gregory Sean Dillon LNP21.0%
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP21.3%
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP22.9%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP23.1%
Callide Bryson Head LNP23.2%
Condamine Pat Weir LNP23.6%
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP27.9%
Non-government seats (36)
Marginal
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP0.04%
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP0.7%
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP0.7%
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP1.5%
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP1.9%
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP2.1%
Cairns Michael Healy ALP2.5%
Lytton Joan Pease ALP3.0%
Ipswich West Wendy Bourne ALP3.9%
Logan Linus Power ALP4.3%
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP4.9%
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP5.3%
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP5.9%
Fairly safe
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP6.0%
South Brisbane Barbara O'Shea ALP6.1% v GRN
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP7.1%
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP7.3%
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP7.5%
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP7.9%
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP8.2%
McConnel Grace Grace ALP8.8%
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP8.9%
Toohey Peter Russo ALP9.0%
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP9.2%
Stretton James Martin ALP9.5%
Sandgate Bisma Asif ALP9.6%
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP9.8%
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP9.8%
Safe
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP10.0%
Miller Mark Bailey ALP10.6%
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP11.2%
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP11.3%
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP12.0%
Inala Margie Nightingale ALP12.6%
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP13.8%
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP18.3%
Crossbench seats (5)
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN3.4% v LNP
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND8.5% v LNP
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP13.2% v LNP
Hill Shane Knuth KAP13.7% v LNP
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP13.7% v LNP

Opinion polling

In the lead-up to the state election, polling companies conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, and contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmSamplePrimary vote 2pp vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP KAP OTH ALP LNP
26 October 2024 election32.6%41.5%9.9%8.0%2.4%5.6%46.2%53.8%
24 October 2024uComms [65] 3,65133.6%39.3%12.9%7.8%2.9%3.5%49%51%
18–24 October 2024Newspoll [66] 1,15133%42%11%8%—6%47.5%52.5%
14–19 October 2024Resolve Strategic [67] 1,00332%40%11%9%2%6%47%53%
10–16 October 2024YouGov [68] 1,50331%41%11%11%1%5%45%55%
15 October 2024The Courier-Mail (Exit Poll) [69] 1,00030%48.2%8.6%7.3%1.5%4.4%42%58%
26–29 September 2024Freshwater Strategy [70] 1,06230%43%12%8%—7%44%56%
12–18 September 2024Newspoll [71] 1,04730%42%12%8%—8%45%55%
June – September 2024Resolve Strategic [72] 93923%44%12%8%1%12%41.5%58.5%
6–29 August 2024Wolf & Smith [73] [74] 1,72424%42%12%8%3%11%43%57%
May – August 2024RedBridge [75] 82929%42%11%——18%45.5%54.5%
8–15 July 2024YouGov [76] 1,01926%43%14%13%1%3%43%57%
February – May 2024RedBridge [77] [78] 88028%47%12%——13%43%57%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [79] [80] 94726%43%13%8%1%9%44.5%55.5%
9–17 April 2024 YouGov [81] 1,09227%44%15%10%1%3%44%56%
16 March 2024The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala.
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll [82] 1,03730%42%13%8%—7%46%54%
13 February 2024uComms [83] [84] 1,74334.2%37.3%12.2%7.7%3.9%4.7%50%50%
26 December 2023uComms [85] 1,91134.4%36.2%————49%51%
15 December 2023 Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland.
13 December 2023uComms [86] 1,14334%38.2%11.9%7.8%3.3%4.8%48%52%
10 December 2023Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland.
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [87] [88] 94033%37%12%8%—10%49.5%50.5%
4–10 October 2023YouGov [89] 1,01333%41%13%8%2%3%48%52%
26 August – 6 September 2023RedBridge [90] [91] [92] [93] 2,01226%41%14%9%—10%45%55%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [94] 94332%38%11%8%1%10% [e] 48%52%
29 June – 2 July 2023Freshwater Strategy [95] 1,06534%40%11%——15%49%51%
17 January – 17 April 2023Resolve Strategic [96] 94335%33%12%7%1%11% [f] 52.5%47.5%
30 March – 5 April 2023YouGov [97] 1,01533%39%13%10%2%—49%51%
1–8 December 2022YouGov [98] ~1,00034%38%13%11%—4%50%50%
21 August – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [99] 92437%35%11%6%1%10% [g] 53.2%46.8%
23–30 June 2022YouGov [100] ~1,00034%38%14%10%1%3%50%50%
18–23 February 2022YouGov [101] ~1,00039%38%10%8%1%4%52%48%
31 October 2020 election39.6%35.9%9.5%7.1%2.5%5.7%53.2%46.8%

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Preferred Premier

DatePolling firmSamplePreferred Premier
Miles Crisafulli Don't know
18–24 October 2024Newspoll [102] 1,15145%42%13%
14–19 October 2024Resolve Strategic [67] 1,00337%39%24%
10–16 October 2024YouGov [68] 1,50336%37%27%
26–29 September 2024Freshwater Strategy [70] 1,06238%46%16%
12–18 September 2024Newspoll [71] 1,04739%46%15%
June – September 2024Resolve Strategic [72] 93927%40%33%
8–15 July 2024YouGov [103] 1,01929%40%31%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [79] 94728%39%33%
9–17 April 2024YouGov [104] 1,09227%40%33%
7–13 March 2024Newspoll [103] 1,03737%43%20%
13 February 2024uComms [83] [84] 1,74349%51%—
26 December 2023uComms [85] 1,91147.8%52.2%—
DatePolling firmSamplePreferred Premier
Palaszczuk Crisafulli Don't know
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [87] [88] 94034%39%27%
10 November 2023SEC Newgate [105] 60030%34%36%
4–10 October 2023YouGov [89] 1,01335%37%28%
December 2023Resolve Strategic [87] [88] 94034%39%27%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [94] 94336%37%27%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR /Freshwater Strategy [95] 1,06544%45%11%
17 January – 17 April 2023Resolve Strategic [96] 94339%31%31%
30 March – 5 April 2023YouGov [97] 1,01531%29%40%
1–8 December 2022YouGov [98] ~1,00039%28%33%
21 August – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [99] 92442%30%28%
23–30 June 2022YouGov [100] ~1,00041%28%31%

Satisfaction ratings

DatePolling firmSample Miles Crisafulli
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
18–24 October 2024Newspoll [106] 1,15145%48%7%–3%43%46%11%–3%
14–19 October 2024Resolve Strategic [67] 1,003———+8%———+7%
10–16 October 2024YouGov [68] 1,50334%44%22%–10%38%32%30%+6%
4–16 October 2024RedBridge Group [107] 2,31535%44%21%–9%40%31%29%+9%
12–18 September 2024Newspoll [71] 1,04741%51%8%–10%49%37%14%+12%
June – September 2024Resolve Strategic [72] 939———–13%———+18%
May – August 2024RedBridge [75] 829———–12%———+14%
8–15 July 2024YouGov [103] 1,01931%44%25%–13%40%23%37%+17%
February – May 2024RedBridge [77] [78] 880———–11%———+14%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [79] 947———–15%———+14%
9–17 April 2024YouGov [104] 1,09225%47%28%–22%40%26%34%+14%
7–13 March 2024Newspoll [103] 1,03738%49%13%–11%47%33%20%+14%
13 February 2024uComms [83] [84] 1,74344.2%25.2%25.2%+19%41.7%18.7%31.2%+23%
13 December 2023uComms [86] 1,14338.4%25.9%35.6%+12.5%————
DatePolling firmSample Palaszczuk Crisafulli
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [87] [88] 940———–17%———+9%
4–10 October 2023YouGov [89] 1,01332%52%16%–20%37%26%37%+11%
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [87] [88] 940———–17%———+9%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [94] 943———–15%———+7%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR /Freshwater Strategy [95] 1,06539%47%14%–8%————
1–8 December 2022YouGov [98] ~1,00040%41%19%–1%31%27%42%+4%
23–30 June 2022YouGov [100] ~1,00045%30%16%+15%31%23%46%+8%
18–23 February 2022YouGov [101] ~1,00050%36%14%+14%————

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Labor lost the seat of Ipswich West to the LNP at a by-election in 2024, increasing the LNP's seat total to 35 and decreasing Labor's seat total to 51.
  2. ↑ MP for Mirani Stephen Andrew left One Nation after being disendorsed, and joined the KAP shortly thereafter.
  3. ↑ Zanow was elected at the 2024 Ipswich West state by-election after the resignation of Labor MP Jim Madden. The LNP's margin at the by-election was 3.5%.
  4. ↑ Andrew was elected as a One Nation member but left to join Katter's Australian Party (KAP) after his disendorsement.
  5. ↑ Independents: 8%, Other parties: 2%
  6. ↑ Independents: 10%, Other parties: 1%
  7. ↑ Independents: 7%, Other parties: 3%

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