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The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years. [1] [2]
The Labor government led by Premier Steven Miles will attempt to win a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal National Party opposition currently led by David Crisafulli. Katter's Australian Party and the Queensland Greens also hold seats in parliament, while other parties contesting the election include Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Legalise Cannabis Queensland, [3] as well as independents. Miles became premier after winning an ALP leadership vote in December 2023, replacing Annastacia Palaszczuk who resigned as party leader and premier after more than eight years in government. [4]
The 2024 election is the first election in which both the Premier and Opposition Leader are men since the 2006 election.
Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.
The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.
The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.
The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October. [5] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.
Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned as premier in 2023 and was succeeded by Steven Miles. [6] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West. [7] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP. [8]
The LNP is campaigning heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at the "Super Saturday" elections in the state (where local government elections were held alongside two by-elections in the traditionally Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West, the latter being gained by the LNP) with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues. [9] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes. [10]
Opinion polling and betting odds have the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier. [11] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years. [12]
In August 2024, Miles announced a policy of state-owned petrol stations, [13] [14] [15] while Crisafulli promised to re-introduce optional preferential voting, which was previously used in Queensland from 1992 to 2015, and is currently used at a state level in New South Wales and Tasmania. [16]
Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election. [17] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023. [18]
In late 2023, it was reported by The Courier-Mail that Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli considered a deal to preference the Greens over Labor at the upcoming state election. [19] Crisafulli told the newspaper: "Now, the same doesn't happen on the other side of the draw – the preferences on the right don't flow in the same way that the Greens' preferences flow to Labor," adding: "So it is a corrupt system... and I have a big concern about the prospect of a Labor–Greens coalition. They will say no deals... but they've said that before and they then broke the promise anyway. So I am deeply concerned by that." [19] One Nation leader and federal Senator for Queensland, Pauline Hanson, confirmed in February 2024 that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her reported distrust of both major parties. [20]
This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.
In the lead-up to the state election, a number of polling companies are conducting regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.
Date | Firm | Sample | Primary vote | 2pp vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | GRN | ON | KAP | OTH | ALP | LNP | |||
June – September 2024 | Resolve Strategic [30] | 939 | 23% | 44% | 12% | 8% | 1% | 12% | 41.5% | 58.5% |
6–29 August 2024 | Wolf & Smith [31] [32] | 1,724 | 24% | 42% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 11% | 43% | 57% |
May – August 2024 | RedBridge [33] | 829 | 29% | 42% | 11% | — | — | 18% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
8–15 July 2024 | YouGov [34] | 1,019 | 26% | 43% | 14% | 13% | 1% | 3% | 43% | 57% |
February – May 2024 | RedBridge [35] [36] | 880 | 28% | 47% | 12% | — | — | 13% | 43% | 57% |
February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic [37] [38] | 947 | 26% | 43% | 13% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 44.5% | 55.5% |
9–17 April 2024 | YouGov [39] | 1,092 | 27% | 44% | 15% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 44% | 56% |
16 March 2024 | The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala. | |||||||||
7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll [40] | 1,037 | 30% | 42% | 13% | 8% | — | — | 46% | 54% |
13 February 2024 | uComms [41] [42] | 1,743 | 34.2% | 37.3% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 50% | 50% |
26 December 2023 | uComms [43] | 1,911 | 34.4% | 36.2% | — | — | — | — | 49% | 51% |
15 December 2023 | Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland. | |||||||||
13 December 2023 | uComms [44] | 1,143 | 34% | 38.2% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 48% | 52% |
10 December 2023 | Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland. | |||||||||
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic [45] [46] | 940 | 33% | 37% | 12% | 8% | — | 10% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
4–10 October 2023 | YouGov [47] | 1,013 | 33% | 41% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 48% | 52% |
26 August – 6 September 2023 | RedBridge [48] [49] [50] [51] | 2,012 | 26% | 41% | 14% | 9% | — | 10% | 45% | 55% |
May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic [52] | 943 | 32% | 38% | 11% | 8% | 1% | 10% [lower-alpha 3] | 48% | 52% |
29 June – 2 July 2023 | Freshwater Strategy [53] | 1,065 | 34% | 40% | 11% | — | — | 15% | 49% | 51% |
17 January – 17 April 2023 | Resolve Strategic [54] | 943 | 35% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 1% | 11% [lower-alpha 4] | 52.5% | 47.5% |
30 March – 5 April 2023 | YouGov [55] | 1,015 | 33% | 39% | 13% | 10% | 2% | — | 49% | 51% |
1–8 December 2022 | YouGov [56] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 13% | 11% | — | 4% | 50% | 50% |
21 August – 4 December 2022 | Resolve Strategic [57] | 924 | 37% | 35% | 11% | 6% | 1% | 10% [lower-alpha 5] | 53.2% | 46.8% |
23–30 June 2022 | YouGov [58] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 50% | 50% |
18–23 February 2022 | YouGov [59] | ~1,000 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 52% | 48% |
31 October 2020 election | 39.6% | 35.9% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 53.2% | 46.8% | ||
Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miles | Crisafulli | Don't know | |||
June – September 2024 | Resolve Strategic [30] | 939 | 27% | 40% | 33% |
8–15 July 2024 | YouGov [60] | 1,019 | 29% | 40% | 31% |
February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic [37] | 947 | 28% | 39% | 33% |
9–17 April 2024 | YouGov [61] | 1,092 | 27% | 40% | 33% |
7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll [40] | 1,037 | 37% | 43% | 20% |
13 February 2024 | uComms [41] [42] | 1,743 | 49% | 51% | — |
26 December 2023 | uComms [43] | 1,911 | 47.8% | 52.2% | — |
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier | ||
Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | Don't know | |||
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic [45] [46] | 940 | 34% | 39% | 27% |
10 November 2023 | SEC Newgate [62] | 600 | 30% | 34% | 36% |
4–10 October 2023 | YouGov [47] | 1,013 | 35% | 37% | 28% |
December 2023 | Resolve Strategic [45] [46] | 940 | 34% | 39% | 27% |
May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic [52] | 943 | 36% | 37% | 27% |
29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR /Freshwater Strategy [53] | 1,065 | 44% | 45% | 11% |
17 January – 17 April 2023 | Resolve Strategic [54] | 943 | 39% | 31% | 31% |
30 March – 5 April 2023 | YouGov [55] | 1,015 | 31% | 29% | 40% |
1–8 December 2022 | YouGov [56] | ~1,000 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
21 August – 4 December 2022 | Resolve Strategic [57] | 924 | 42% | 30% | 28% |
23–30 June 2022 | YouGov [58] | ~1,000 | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Miles | Crisafulli | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | |||
June – September 2024 | Resolve Strategic [30] | 939 | — | — | — | –13% | — | — | — | +18% |
May – August 2024 | RedBridge [33] | 829 | — | — | — | –12% | — | — | — | +14% |
8–15 July 2024 | YouGov [60] | 1,019 | 31% | 44% | 25% | –13% | 40% | 23% | 37% | +17% |
February – May 2024 | RedBridge [35] [36] | 880 | — | — | — | –11% | — | — | — | +14% |
February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic [37] | 947 | — | — | — | –15% | — | — | — | +14% |
9–17 April 2024 | YouGov [61] | 1,092 | 25% | 47% | 28% | –22% | 40% | 26% | 34% | +14% |
7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll [40] | 1,037 | 38% | 49% | 13% | -11% | 47% | 33% | 20% | +14% |
13 February 2024 | uComms [41] [42] | 1,743 | 44.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | +19% | 41.7% | 18.7% | 31.2% | +23% |
13 December 2023 | uComms [44] | 1,143 | 38.4% | 25.9% | 35.6% | +12.5% | — | — | — | — |
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | ||||||
Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | |||
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic [45] [46] | 940 | — | — | — | –17% | — | — | — | +9% |
4–10 October 2023 | YouGov [47] | 1,013 | 32% | 52% | 16% | –20% | 37% | 26% | 37% | +11% |
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic [45] [46] | 940 | — | — | — | –17% | — | — | — | +9% |
May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic [52] | 943 | — | — | — | –15% | — | — | — | +7% |
29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR /Freshwater Strategy [53] | 1,065 | 39% | 47% | 14% | –8% | — | — | — | — |
1–8 December 2022 | YouGov [56] | ~1,000 | 40% | 41% | 19% | –1% | 31% | 27% | 42% | +4% |
23–30 June 2022 | YouGov [58] | ~1,000 | 45% | 30% | 16% | +15% | 31% | 23% | 46% | +8% |
18–23 February 2022 | YouGov [59] | ~1,000 | 50% | 36% | 14% | +14% | — | — | — | — |
Campbell Kevin Thomas Newman is an Australian former politician who served as the 38th Premier of Queensland from 26 March 2012 to 14 February 2015. He served as the member for Ashgrove in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland between 24 March 2012 and 31 January 2015. He was LNP Leader from 2 April 2011 to 7 February 2015; Newman previously served as the 15th Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 27 March 2004 to 3 April 2011.
The Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP) is a major centre-right political party in Queensland, Australia. It was formed in 2008 by a merger of the Queensland divisions of the Liberal Party and the National Party. At a federal level and in most other states, the two parties remain distinct and often operate as a Coalition. The LNP is a division of the Liberal Party of Australia, and an affiliate of the National Party of Australia.
Annastacia Palaszczuk is an Australian politician who served as the 39th premier of Queensland from 2015 to 2023. She held office as the leader of the Queensland branch of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) from 2012 until her resignation, and has been a member of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland (MLA) for the division of Inala since 2006. Palaszczuk is the fifth-most tenured premier in Queensland state history and the first woman to win the premiership from opposition, she also presided over the first majority female cabinet in Australian state and federal history.
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The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland.
David Frank Crisafulli is an Australian politician who is the current leader of the Opposition in Queensland, holding office as the leader of the Liberal National Party since November 2020. He has been the member of the Legislative Assembly for Broadwater since 2017. He was the member for Mundingburra from 2012 to 2015, holding ministerial portfolios in the Newman government.
Deborah Kay Frecklington is an Australian politician who serves as the member for Nanango in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland, having won the seat at the 2012 state election. She was the Leader of the Queensland Opposition and leader of the Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP) before resigning as party leader following the LNP’s loss at the 2020 Queensland state election.
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Steven John Miles is an Australian politician who is the 40th and current premier of Queensland, in office since 2023. He is the state leader of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and previously served as deputy premier from 2020 to 2023.
Mark Craig Bailey is an Australian politician who has been the Labor member for Miller in the Queensland Legislative Assembly since 2015. Bailey most recently served as the Minister for Transport and Main Roads of Queensland until 17 December 2023. He has also worked in gambling, liquor and racing policy for the Queensland state government.
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The 2020 Queensland state election was held on 31 October to elect all 93 members to the 57th Legislative Assembly of Queensland. The Labor Party was returned to government for a third-term, led by incumbent premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. With 47 seats needed to form a majority government, Labor won 52 seats, including all but five in Brisbane, while the Liberal National Party won 34 seats and formed opposition. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party retained its 3 seats, the Queensland Greens picked up South Brisbane for a total of 2, Pauline Hanson's One Nation retained Mirani and independent Sandy Bolton retained her seat of Noosa.
The Third Palaszczuk Ministry was a ministry of the Government of Queensland led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. Palaszczuk led the Labor Party to a majority victory in the 2020 state election and a third term in government since 2015. Cabinet's first meeting was held on 16 November 2020 in the Sunshine Coast suburb of Caloundra.
A by-election for the electoral district of Inala in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland was held on 16 March 2024 following the resignation of former Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk from parliament, which was announced on 10 December 2023 and took effect on 31 December 2023. The by-election was held on the same day as the Ipswich West by-election and the statewide local government elections.
The 2023 Queensland Labor Party leadership election was held on 15 December 2023 to elect a new leader of the Queensland Labor Party and a Premier of Queensland, following the resignation of Annastacia Palaszczuk as both Premier and MP for Inala. Steven Miles was appointed leader unopposed, while Cameron Dick was appointed Deputy Leader unopposed.