2024 Queensland state election

Last updated

2024 Queensland state election
Flag of Queensland.svg
  2020 26 October 20242028 

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Dr Steven Miles MP (cropped).jpg DC 2022 (cropped).jpg Robbie Katter with hat at lookout (cropped).jpg
Leader Steven Miles David Crisafulli Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 15 December 2023 12 November 20202 February 2015
Leader's seat Murrumba Broadwater Traeger
Last election52 seats, 39.57%34 seats, 35.89%3 seats, 2.48%
Current seats51 [lower-alpha 1] 35 [lower-alpha 1] 4 [lower-alpha 2]
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 12Increase2.svg 43

  Greens placeholder-01.png
ON
LeaderNo leaderNo leader
Party Greens One Nation
Last election2 seats, 9.47% 1 seat, 7.12%
Current seats20 [lower-alpha 2]
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 45Increase2.svg 47

2024 Queensland state election map.svg
Map of electoral districts to be used at the election

Incumbent Premier

Steven Miles
Labor



The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years. [1] [2]

Contents

The Labor government led by Premier Steven Miles will attempt to win a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal National Party opposition currently led by David Crisafulli. Katter's Australian Party and the Queensland Greens also hold seats in parliament, while other parties contesting the election include Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Legalise Cannabis Queensland, [3] as well as independents. Miles became premier after winning an ALP leadership vote in December 2023, replacing Annastacia Palaszczuk who resigned as party leader and premier after more than eight years in government. [4]

The 2024 election is the first election in which both the Premier and Opposition Leader are men since the 2006 election.

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.

The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.

Key dates

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October. [5] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Background

Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned as premier in 2023 and was succeeded by Steven Miles. [6] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West. [7] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP. [8]

Campaign

The LNP is campaigning heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at the "Super Saturday" elections in the state (where local government elections were held alongside two by-elections in the traditionally Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West, the latter being gained by the LNP) with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues. [9] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes. [10]

Opinion polling and betting odds have the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier. [11] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years. [12]

In August 2024, Miles announced a policy of state-owned petrol stations, [13] [14] [15] while Crisafulli promised to re-introduce optional preferential voting, which was previously used in Queensland from 1992 to 2015, and is currently used at a state level in New South Wales and Tasmania. [16]

Candidates

Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election. [17] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023. [18]

Preferences

In late 2023, it was reported by The Courier-Mail that Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli considered a deal to preference the Greens over Labor at the upcoming state election. [19] Crisafulli told the newspaper: "Now, the same doesn't happen on the other side of the draw – the preferences on the right don't flow in the same way that the Greens' preferences flow to Labor," adding: "So it is a corrupt system... and I have a big concern about the prospect of a Labor–Greens coalition. They will say no deals... but they've said that before and they then broke the promise anyway. So I am deeply concerned by that." [19] One Nation leader and federal Senator for Queensland, Pauline Hanson, confirmed in February 2024 that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her reported distrust of both major parties. [20]

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal National

Electoral pendulum

This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP6.3
Inala Margie Nightingale ALP6.7 [lower-roman 1]
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP6.7
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP9.8
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP11.4
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP11.9
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP13.2
Logan Linus Power ALP13.4
Lytton Joan Pease ALP13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP13.8
Stretton James Martin ALP13.9 [lower-roman 2]
Toohey Peter Russo ALP14.4
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP v ONP20.7
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP26.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP1.3
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP1.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP3.3
Ipswich West Darren Zanow LNP3.5 [lower-roman 3]
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP11.4
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP14.1
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP19.2
Callide Bryson Head LNP21.7 [lower-roman 4]
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN v ALP5.3
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN v LNP6.3
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP v ALP9.0
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP v LNP14.8
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND v LNP15.8
Hill Shane Knuth KAP v ALP22.5
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP v ALP24.7
Notes
  1. In 2024 there was a by-election after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned from her seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  2. In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  3. In 2024 there was a by-election after Labor MP Jim Madden resigned from his seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  4. In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

Opinion polling

In the lead-up to the state election, a number of polling companies are conducting regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.


Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmSamplePrimary vote 2pp vote
ALPLNPGRNONKAPOTHALPLNP
June – September 2024Resolve Strategic [30] 93923%44%12%8%1%12%41.5%58.5%
6–29 August 2024Wolf & Smith [31] [32] 1,72424%42%12%8%3%11%43%57%
May – August 2024RedBridge [33] 82929%42%11%18%45.5%54.5%
8–15 July 2024YouGov [34] 1,01926%43%14%13%1%3%43%57%
February – May 2024RedBridge [35] [36] 88028%47%12%13%43%57%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [37] [38] 94726%43%13%8%1%9%44.5%55.5%
9–17 April 2024 YouGov [39] 1,09227%44%15%10%1%3%44%56%
16 March 2024The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala.
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll [40] 1,03730%42%13%8%46%54%
13 February 2024uComms [41] [42] 1,74334.2%37.3%12.2%7.7%3.9%4.7%50%50%
26 December 2023uComms [43] 1,91134.4%36.2%49%51%
15 December 2023 Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland.
13 December 2023uComms [44] 1,14334%38.2%11.9%7.8%3.3%4.8%48%52%
10 December 2023Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland.
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [45] [46] 94033%37%12%8%10%49.5%50.5%
4–10 October 2023YouGov [47] 1,01333%41%13%8%2%3%48%52%
26 August – 6 September 2023RedBridge [48] [49] [50] [51] 2,01226%41%14%9%10%45%55%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [52] 94332%38%11%8%1%10% [lower-alpha 3] 48%52%
29 June – 2 July 2023Freshwater Strategy [53] 1,06534%40%11%15%49%51%
17 January – 17 April 2023Resolve Strategic [54] 94335%33%12%7%1%11% [lower-alpha 4] 52.5%47.5%
30 March – 5 April 2023YouGov [55] 1,01533%39%13%10%2%49%51%
1–8 December 2022YouGov [56] ~1,00034%38%13%11%4%50%50%
21 August – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [57] 92437%35%11%6%1%10% [lower-alpha 5] 53.2%46.8%
23–30 June 2022YouGov [58] ~1,00034%38%14%10%1%3%50%50%
18–23 February 2022YouGov [59] ~1,00039%38%10%8%1%4%52%48%
31 October 2020 election39.6%35.9%9.5%7.1%2.5%5.7%53.2%46.8%

Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Preferred Premier

DatePolling firmSamplePreferred Premier
Miles Crisafulli Don't know
June – September 2024Resolve Strategic [30] 93927%40%33%
8–15 July 2024YouGov [60] 1,01929%40%31%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [37] 94728%39%33%
9–17 April 2024YouGov [61] 1,09227%40%33%
7–13 March 2024Newspoll [40] 1,03737%43%20%
13 February 2024uComms [41] [42] 1,74349%51%
26 December 2023uComms [43] 1,91147.8%52.2%
DatePolling firmSamplePreferred Premier
Palaszczuk Crisafulli Don't know
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [45] [46] 94034%39%27%
10 November 2023SEC Newgate [62] 60030%34%36%
4–10 October 2023YouGov [47] 1,01335%37%28%
December 2023Resolve Strategic [45] [46] 94034%39%27%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [52] 94336%37%27%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR /Freshwater Strategy [53] 1,06544%45%11%
17 January – 17 April 2023Resolve Strategic [54] 94339%31%31%
30 March – 5 April 2023YouGov [55] 1,01531%29%40%
1–8 December 2022YouGov [56] ~1,00039%28%33%
21 August – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [57] 92442%30%28%
23–30 June 2022YouGov [58] ~1,00041%28%31%

Satisfaction ratings

DatePolling firmSample Miles Crisafulli
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
June – September 2024Resolve Strategic [30] 939–13%+18%
May – August 2024RedBridge [33] 829–12%+14%
8–15 July 2024YouGov [60] 1,01931%44%25%–13%40%23%37%+17%
February – May 2024RedBridge [35] [36] 880–11%+14%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [37] 947–15%+14%
9–17 April 2024YouGov [61] 1,09225%47%28%–22%40%26%34%+14%
7–13 March 2024Newspoll [40] 1,03738%49%13%-11%47%33%20%+14%
13 February 2024uComms [41] [42] 1,74344.2%25.2%25.2%+19%41.7%18.7%31.2%+23%
13 December 2023uComms [44] 1,14338.4%25.9%35.6%+12.5%
DatePolling firmSample Palaszczuk Crisafulli
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [45] [46] 940–17%+9%
4–10 October 2023YouGov [47] 1,01332%52%16%–20%37%26%37%+11%
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [45] [46] 940–17%+9%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [52] 943–15%+7%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR /Freshwater Strategy [53] 1,06539%47%14%–8%
1–8 December 2022YouGov [56] ~1,00040%41%19%–1%31%27%42%+4%
23–30 June 2022YouGov [58] ~1,00045%30%16%+15%31%23%46%+8%
18–23 February 2022YouGov [59] ~1,00050%36%14%+14%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Labor lost the seat of Ipswich West to the LNP at a by-election in 2024, increasing the LNP's seat total to 35 and decreasing Labor's seat total to 51.
  2. 1 2 One Nation's sole MP, Stephen Andrew, resigned from the party after being disendorsed on 2 August 2024. He subsequently joined Katter’s Australian Party.
  3. Independents: 8%, Other parties: 2%
  4. Independents: 10%, Other parties: 1%
  5. Independents: 7%, Other parties: 3%

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