2012 Queensland state election

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2012 Queensland state election
Flag of Queensland.svg
  2009 24 March 2012 (2012-03-24) 2015  

All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Turnout91.00% (Increase2.svg 0.07 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Campbell Newman being interviewed (cropped).jpg Anna Bligh crop.jpg Aidan McLindon (cropped).JPG
Leader Campbell Newman Anna Bligh Aidan McLindon
Party Liberal National Labor Katter's Australian
Leader since22 March 2011 (2011-03-22)13 September 2007 (2007-09-13)9 August 2011 (2011-08-09)
Leader's seat Ashgrove
(won seat)
South Brisbane Beaudesert
(lost seat)
Last election34 seats, 41.60%51 seats, 42.25%Did not contest
Seats before33 seats [lower-alpha 1] 51 seats1 seat [lower-alpha 2]
Seats won7872
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 45Decrease2.svg 44Increase2.svg 1
Popular vote1,214,553652,092282,098
Percentage49.7%26.7%11.5%
SwingIncrease2.svg 8.1Decrease2.svg 15.6Increase2.svg 11.5
TPP 62.8%37.2%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 13.7Decrease2.svg 13.7

2012 Queensland state election.svg
Winning margin by electorate.

Premier before election

Anna Bligh
Labor

Elected Premier

Campbell Newman
Liberal National

The 2012 Queensland state election was held on 24 March 2012 to elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly, a unicameral parliament. [1]

Contents

The Labor Party (ALP), led by Premier Anna Bligh, was defeated by the opposition Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Campbell Newman in a landslide victory. It is only the sixth time that Queenslanders have ousted a sitting government since 1915. The ALP was attempting to win a ninth consecutive election victory, having won every general election since 1989, despite being out of office between 1996 and 1998. Katter's Australian Party contested its first election. Before the election, it held two seats whose members had been elected as LNP candidates.

Labor suffered one of the worst defeats of a state government since Federation, and the worst defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. From 51 seats in 2009, it was reduced to only seven seats, suffering a swing of 15.6 percentage points. The LNP won a majority for the first time in its history, jumping from 34 to 78 seats to win the largest majority government in Queensland history. It was the first outright non-Labor majority since the Queensland Nationals won their last victory in 1986. Katter's Australian Party won two seats, though leader Aidan McLindon lost his own seat. The remaining two seats were taken by independents. Newman took office two days after the election.

Historically, Queenslanders have given their governments long tenures in office. The 2012 election marked only the sixth change of government in the state since 1915.

Background

In choosing 24 March, Bligh made the unusual step of announcing the election date two months prior. Bligh was criticised for selecting a date which required the postponement of local government elections. [2] Bligh has said that date allowed Queenslanders to view the final report of the Commission of Inquiry into the 2010–11 Queensland floods before they vote. [3] Normal practice in Australia is for parliament to be dissolved at the time of the election announcement. However, Bligh did not formally ask Governor Penelope Wensley to dissolve Parliament until 19 February. Wensley granted the request, formally beginning the 35-day campaign. [4] By not asking for a dissolution in January, Bligh avoided placing the government in caretaker mode for 25 days. [3]

Leadership of the Liberal National Party

Campbell Newman was elected leader of the LNP in early 2011 while he was the Lord Mayor of Brisbane. Standard practice calls for an MP from a safe seat to resign so that a newly elected leader can get into parliament via a by-election, though this is not universally followed. However, when Newman won the leadership in 2011, a by-election could not be arranged. [5] For this reason, Jeff Seeney was elected as interim parliamentary leader of the LNP and Leader of the Opposition. Newman led the LNP election team from outside of parliament, often sitting at the galleries, and simultaneously contested the seat of Ashgrove as the LNP candidate. [6]

Disendorsed candidates

The Liberal National Party disendorsed two candidates for the Gold Coast seat of Broadwater. Richard Townson was caught drink driving with a blood alcohol content of 0.07 when he was in a police random breath test. Cameron Caldwell was disendorsed when he confirmed he had attended a Gold Coast swingers' club. [7]

The Australian Labor Party disendorsed candidate Peter Watson for the seat of Southern Downs and expelled him from the party for making racist and homophobic remarks online. [8]

Katter appeal on ballot papers

On 2 March 2012, Katter's Australian Party sought an injunction in the Supreme Court of Queensland to have more than 2 million ballot papers shredded and reprinted. The party said the Queensland Electoral Commission used the party's abbreviated name, "The Australian Party", instead of its registered name, "Katter's Australian Party (Qld Division)", which the party claimed could confuse voters. [9] Bligh said that her lawyers had advised her to reschedule the election if Katter's challenge succeeded. [10]

On 7 March, Supreme Court Justice Roslyn Atkinson referred the matter to the Queensland Court of Appeal as matters of constitutional law in the case were outside her jurisdiction. [11] The Court of Appeal rejected the constitutional arguments and dismissed the appeal the following day. [12]

Key dates

DateEvent
19 February 2012 Writ of election issued by the Governor [13]
25 February 2012Close of electoral rolls
27 February 2012Close of nominations
24 March 2012Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
26 March 2012Interim Newman Ministry was sworn in [14]
3 April 2012Full Newman Ministry sworn [15]
23 April 2012Writ returned and results formally declared
15 May 201254th Parliament convened [16]

Results

The estimated two-party preferred result was 37.2% for Labor and 62.8% for the LNP, a swing of 13.7% from Labor's result of 2009. [17]

The LNP had been unbackable favourites to win the election. By the time the writs were issued, they had led opinion polling for over a year, and had been ahead of Labor on all but one Newspoll since 2010.

The LNP swept Labor from power in a massive landslide, taking 78 seats to Labor's seven on a two-party-preferred swing of 13.7 points away from Labor. The 44-seat loss is double the 22-seat loss suffered by the Nationals in the 1989 election, the previous record for the worst defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. The 13.7-percent swing is one of the largest against a sitting state government in Australia since World War II.

In the process, the LNP won many seats considered Labor heartland. It broke Labor's longstanding grip on Brisbane, taking all but three of the city's 40 seats, some on swings of 10 points or more. By comparison, Labor went into the election holding all but six seats in the capital, which had been its power base for over 20 years. In every election since the "one vote, one value" reforms of the Goss government, Labor had won at least 30 seats in Brisbane. The LNP also won every seat on the Gold Coast while strengthening its hold on its traditional heartlands in provincial and rural Queensland. Ten members of Bligh's cabinet were defeated. Newman won Ashgrove handily, defeating Labor's Kate Jones on a 13-point swing, almost double the 7-point swing he needed to take the seat off Labor.

ABC News called the election for the LNP at 6:48 pm Queensland time, less than an hour after counting began. Bligh conceded defeat at 8:25 pm, and Newman publicly claimed victory 20 minutes later. [18]

The day after the election, Bligh resigned as premier and Queensland Labor leader. She also announced she was resigning from parliament on 30 March and retiring from politics, triggering a by-election in her seat of South Brisbane. [19] [20] An hour later, Newman, who at the time did not know that Bligh had resigned, announced that he would be sworn in as premier on 26 March, heading an interim three-man cabinet composed of himself, Seeney and Tim Nicholls. Although Newman's victory was beyond doubt, counting was still under way in some seats. [14] Bligh handed in her resignation later on the afternoon of 25 March, but remained as caretaker until Newman was sworn in the next day.

Labor was reduced to its smallest presence in the legislature on record, outdoing its previous low in 1974, when it was cut down to a "cricket team" of only 11 members at the height of Joh Bjelke-Petersen's power. Indeed, Michael Madigan of The Courier-Mail wrote that Labor had been reduced to a "water polo squad." [21]

Although Labor came up two seats short of official party status in the legislature, Newman promised that Labor would be "properly resourced as an opposition". [22]

2012 QLD Legislative Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal National 1,214,55349.66Increase2.svg 8.0678Increase2.svg 44
Labor 652,09226.66Decrease2.svg 15.597Decrease2.svg 44
Katter's Australian Party 282,09811.53New2New
Greens 184,1477.53Decrease2.svg 0.840Steady2.svg 0
Independents 77,2823.16Decrease2.svg 3.422Decrease2.svg 2
Family First 33,2691.36Increase2.svg 0.540Steady2.svg 0
One Nation 2,5250.10Decrease2.svg 0.280Steady2.svg 0
Total2,445,966100.0089
Valid votes2,445,96697.85
Invalid/blank votes53,7972.15Increase2.svg 0.21
Total votes2,499,763100.00
Registered voters/turnout2,746,84491.00Increase2.svg 0.07
Two-party-preferred
Liberal National 62.8Increase2.svg 13.7
Labor 37.2Decrease2.svg 13.7
Total
Source: The two-party preferred summary is an estimate by Antony Green using a methodology by Malcolm Mackerras.


Popular vote
LNP
49.66%
Labor
26.66%
Katter's
11.53%
Greens
7.53%
Family First
1.36%
One Nation
0.10%
Independents
3.16%
Two-party preferred vote
LNP
62.80%
Labor
37.20%
Seats
LNP
87.64%
Labor
7.87%
Katter's
2.25%
Independents
2.25%

Seats changing hands

Seat2009 ElectionSwing2012 Election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Albert  Labor Margaret Keech 6.47–18.3611.89 Mark Boothman Liberal National 
Algester  Labor Karen Struthers 9.21–18.369.15 Anthony Shorten Liberal National 
Ashgrove  Labor Kate Jones 7.10–12.795.70 Campbell Newman Liberal National 
Barron River  Labor Steve Wettenhall 2.32–11.819.48 Michael Trout Liberal National 
Brisbane Central  Labor Grace Grace 5.97–10.854.88 Robert Cavallucci Liberal National 
Broadwater  Labor Peta-Kaye Croft 2.03–13.3211.29 Verity Barton Liberal National 
Bulimba  Labor Di Farmer 7.77–7.910.14 Aaron Dillaway Liberal National 
Burleigh  Labor Christine Smith 4.90–15.9511.05 Michael Hart Liberal National 
Cairns  Labor Desley Boyle 4.15–13.038.87 Gavin King Liberal National 
Capalaba  Labor Michael Choi 9.67–13.403.73 Steve Davies Liberal National 
Chatsworth  Labor Steve Kilburn 0.14–14.0813.94 Steve Minnikin Liberal National 
Cook  Labor Jason O'Brien 2.24–5.683.43 David Kempton Liberal National 
Dalrymple  Liberal National Shane Knuth 15.18–20.4015.22 Shane Knuth Katter's Australian 
Everton  Labor Murray Watt 1.39–14.5413.15 Tim Mander Liberal National 
Ferny Grove  Labor Geoff Wilson 4.49–14.029.52 Dale Shuttleworth Liberal National 
Greenslopes  Labor Cameron Dick 6.94–9.402.45 Ian Kaye Liberal National 
Ipswich  Labor Rachel Nolan 16.71–20.904.19 Ian Berry Liberal National 
Ipswich West  Labor Wayne Wendt 9.55–16.717.16 Sean Choat Liberal National 
Kallangur  Labor Mary-Anne O'Neill 4.63–17.0612.43 Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 
Keppel  Labor Paul Hoolihan 7.62–14.026.39 Bruce Young Liberal National 
Logan  Labor John Mickel 13.93–18.734.80 Michael Pucci Liberal National 
Lytton  Labor Paul Lucas 12.21–13.791.58 Neil Symes Liberal National 
Mansfield  Labor Phil Reeves 4.39–15.5311.14 Ian Walker Liberal National 
Maryborough  Independent Chris Foley 16.83–17.140.31 Anne Maddern Liberal National 
Morayfield  Labor Mark Ryan 9.13–14.715.57 Darren Grimwade Liberal National 
Mount Coot-tha  Labor Andrew Fraser 5.25–10.605.36 Saxon Rice Liberal National 
Mount Isa  Labor Betty Kiernan 5.7215.7610.04 Robbie Katter Katter's Australian 
Mount Ommaney  Labor Julie Attwood 4.79–21.2716.48 Tarnya Smith Liberal National 
Mundingburra  Labor Lindy Nelson-Carr 6.59–16.7810.19 David Crisafulli Liberal National 
Murrumba  Labor Dean Wells 7.21–16.749.52 Reg Gulley Liberal National 
Nanango  Independent Dorothy Pratt 2.90-11.888.98 Deb Frecklington Liberal National 
Nudgee  Labor Neil Roberts 4.26–17.373.11 Jason Woodforth Liberal National 
Pine Rivers  Labor Carolyn Male 4.61–18.2713.66 Seath Holswich Liberal National 
Pumicestone  Labor Carryn Sullivan 4.99–17.0612.07 Lisa France Liberal National 
Redcliffe  Labor Lillian van Litsenburg 5.57–15.6710.10 Scott Driscoll Liberal National 
Sandgate  Labor Vicky Darling 12.37–15.242.87 Kerry Millard Liberal National 
Southport  Labor Peter Lawlor 3.48–18.2014.72 Rob Molhoek Liberal National 
Springwood  Labor Barbara Stone 4.08–19.4815.39 John Grant Liberal National 
Stafford  Labor Stirling Hinchliffe 7.29–14.357.06 Chris Davis Liberal National 
Stretton  Labor Stephen Robertson 9.48−19.049.55 Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 
Sunnybank  Labor Judy Spence 10.79−21.0210.23 Mark Stewart Liberal National 
Thuringowa  Labor Craig Wallace 8.47−9.851.38 Sam Cox Liberal National 
Toowoomba North  Labor Kerry Shine 3.22–12.809.58 Trevor Watts Liberal National 
Townsville  Labor Mandy Johnstone 4.02−8.844.83 John Hathaway Liberal National 
Waterford  Labor Evan Moorhead 16.46−17.501.04 Mike Latter Liberal National 
Whitsunday  Labor Jan Jarratt 3.24−13.9110.67 Jason Costigan Liberal National 
Yeerongpilly  Labor Simon Finn 8.73−10.171.44 Carl Judge Liberal National 

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Bulimba Aaron Dillaway LNP0.14%
Maryborough Anne Maddern LNP0.31% v IND
Waterford Mike Latter LNP1.04%
Thuringowa Sam Cox LNP1.38% v KAP
Yeerongpilly Carl Judge LNP1.44%
Lytton Neil Symes LNP1.58%
Greenslopes Ian Kaye LNP2.45%
Sandgate Kerry Millard LNP2.87%
Nudgee Jason Woodforth LNP3.11%
Cook David Kempton LNP3.43%
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP3.63% v KAP
Capalaba Steve Davies LNP3.73%
Ipswich Ian Berry LNP4.19%
Logan Michael Pucci LNP4.80%
Townsville John Hathaway LNP4.83%
Brisbane Central Robert Cavallucci LNP4.88%
Mount Coot-tha Saxon Rice LNP5.36%
Morayfield Darren Grimwade LNP5.57%
Ashgrove Campbell Newman LNP5.70%
Fairly safe
Keppel Bruce Young LNP6.39%
Stafford Chris Davis LNP7.06%
Ipswich West Sean Choat LNP7.16%
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP8.50% v IND
Cairns Gavin King LNP8.87%
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP8.98% v KAP
Algester Anthony Shorten LNP9.15%
Barron River Michael Trout LNP9.48%
Ferny Grove Dale Shuttleworth LNP9.52%
Murrumba Reg Gulley LNP9.52%
Stretton Freya Ostapovitch LNP9.55%
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP9.58%
Safe
Redcliffe Scott Driscoll LNP10.10%
Mundingburra David Crisafulli LNP10.19%
Sunnybank Mark Stewart LNP10.23%
Beaudesert Jon Krause LNP10.56% v KAP
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP10.67%
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP11.05%
Mansfield Ian Walker LNP11.14%
Mirani Ted Malone LNP11.19%
Broadwater Verity Barton LNP11.29%
Albert Mark Boothman LNP11.89%
Pumicestone Lisa France LNP12.07%
Kallangur Trevor Ruthenberg LNP12.43%
Burdekin Rosemary Menkens LNP12.47% v KAP
Everton Tim Mander LNP13.15%
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP13.51% v KAP
Pine Rivers Seath Holswich LNP13.66%
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP13.94%
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP14.72%
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP14.87% v KAP
Springwood John Grant LNP15.39%
Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith LNP16.48%
Gympie David Gibson LNP17.26% v KAP
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP18.10%
Bundaberg Jack Dempsey LNP18.17%
Gaven Alex Douglas LNP19.10%
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP19.55%
Very safe
Condamine Ray Hopper LNP20.10% v KAP
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP20.18%
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP20.39%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP20.56%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP20.93%
Redlands Peter Dowling LNP21.10%
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP21.23%
Toowoomba South John McVeigh LNP21.62%
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP21.72%
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP21.75%
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP23.26%
Moggill Bruce Flegg LNP23.91%
Warrego Howard Hobbs LNP25.06%
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP25.46% v GRN
Gregory Vaughan Johnson LNP25.48%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP25.93%
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP26.01%
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP26.05%
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP26.26%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP29.50%
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP29.77% v KAP
Non-government seats
Marginal
Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP0.53%
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP1.15%
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP1.82%
Rockhampton William Byrne ALP3.95%
South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP4.66%
Woodridge Desley Scott ALP5.80%
Fairly safe
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP6.90%
Crossbench seats
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND4.55% v LNP
Mount Isa Robbie Katter KAP10.04% v LNP
Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND14.03% v ALP
Dalrymple Shane Knuth KAP15.22% v LNP

Subsequent changes

Retiring MPs

The following Members of Parliament stood down at the election:

Labor

LNP

Independent

Polling

Newspoll and Galaxy polling was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 800-1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at around ±3 percent.

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of primary voting opinion polls for the 2012 Queensland state election.
Graphical summary of two-party preferred voting opinion polls for the 2012 Queensland state election.
Legislative Assembly polling
Primary vote TPP vote
ALPLNPGRNOTHALPLNP
2012 election26.7%49.7%7.5%16.1%37.2%62.8%
20–22 March 201228%50%6%16%39.2%60.8%
3–15 February 201230%47%9%14%42%58%
Oct–Dec 201131%44%10%15%44%56%
Jul–Sep 201127%50%8%15%39%61%
Apr–May 201131%51%7%11%40%60%
Jan–Mar 201138%37%10%15%52%48%
Oct–Dec 201026%45%13%16%41%59%
Jul–Sep 201029%44%14%13%43%57%
2009 election 42.3%41.6%8.4%7.8%50.9%49.1%
18–19 March 200942%42%7%9%49.9%50.1%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .

Better Premier and leadership approval graphical summary

Graphical summary of Better Premier opinion polling for the 2012 Queensland state election.
Graphical summary of Anna Bligh's approval ratings as Premier.
Better Premier polling^
BlighNewman
ALPLNP
20–22 March 201236%51%
3–15 February 201240%44%
Oct–Dec 201139%43%
Jul–Sep 201134%48%
Apr–May 201135%49%
Jan–Mar 201153%26%2
Oct–Dec 201031%41%2
Jul–Sep 201034%42%2
2009 election
18–19 March 200953%33%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll
and published in The Australian .
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Lawrence Springborg.
2 John-Paul Langbroek.
Satisfaction polling^
BlighNewman
ALPLNP
SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
20–22 March 201236%58%47%40%
3–15 February 201241%50%45%37%
Oct–Dec 201139%50%45%33%
Jul–Sep 201138%52%51%27%
Apr–May 201140%50%50%22%
Jan–Mar 201149%43%33%240%2
Oct–Dec 201024%67%38%238%2
Jul–Sep 201026%65%32%242%2
2009 election
18–19 March 200946%44%39%149%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Lawrence Springborg.
2 John-Paul Langbroek.

Newspaper endorsements

NewspaperEndorsement
The Australian Liberal National [28]
The Courier-Mail Liberal National

See also

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References

  1. Aidan McLindon, the then-Member for Beaudesert, resigned from the LNP in 2010 and later created The Queensland Party, which merged with Katter's Australian Party in 2011, resulting in him becoming their state leader.
  2. McLindon joined the KAP in 2011 and became their state leader after merging his Queensland Party into the KAP. He was elected in 2009 as a member of the LNP.
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