2023 Navarrese regional election

2023 Navarrese regional election

←  2019 28 May 2023
←  outgoing members
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	518,998 1.6%
Turnout	334,493 (64.4%) 4.1 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Javier Esparza María Chivite Laura Aznal Party UPN PSN–PSOE EH Bildu Leader since 30 November 2014 19 October 2014 6 May 2022 Last election 15 seats (NA+) [lower-alpha 1] 11 seats, 20.6% 7 seats, 14.5% Seats won 15 11 9 Seat change 0 0 2 Popular vote 92,392 68,247 56,535 Percentage 28.0% 20.7% 17.1% Swing n/a 0.1 pp 2.6 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Uxue Barkos Javier García Begoña Alfaro Party GBai PP Contigo/Zurekin Leader since 3 October 2014 4 December 2022 3 November 2022 Last election 9 seats, 17.3% 2 seats (NA+) [lower-alpha 1] 3 seats, 8.2% [lower-alpha 2] Seats won 7 3 3 Seat change 2 1 0 Popular vote 43,660 24,019 20,095 Percentage 13.2% 7.3% 6.1% Swing 4.0 pp n/a 2.1 pp
President before election María Chivite PSN–PSOE Elected President María Chivite PSN–PSOE

The 2023 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish : Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. ^[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force. ^[3]

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. ^[4]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the BON no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 25 June 2023. ^{[1] [4] [5]}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[1]

The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the BON, setting the election date for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 16 June. ^[6]

Parliamentary composition

Further information: 10th Parliament of Navarre

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution. ^[7]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Sum Navarre Parliamentary Group		UPN	15	20
			CS	3
			PP	2
	Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group		PSN–PSOE	11	11
	Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group		GSB/GSV	6	9
			EAJ/PNV	3
	EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group		Sortu	4	7
			EA	3
	Mixed Group		Podemos	2	3
			I–E (n)	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[4] [5]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	UPN	List Navarrese People's Union (UPN)		Javier Esparza	Conservatism Christian democracy Regionalism	36.57% [lower-alpha 3]	20	N	[8] [9] [10]
	CS	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)		Carlos Pérez-Nievas	Liberalism			N	[11]
	PP	List People's Party (PP) Navarre Platform (PN)		Javier García	Conservatism Christian democracy			N	[12] [13] [14]
	PSN–PSOE	List Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)		María Chivite	Social democracy	20.63%	11	Y	[15] [16]
	GBai	List Future Social Greens (GSB/GSV) Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) Villava Group (AT)		Uxue Barkos	Basque nationalism Social democracy	17.32%	9	Y	[17]
	EH Bildu	List Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) – Create (Sortu) – Basque Solidarity (EA) – Alternative (Alternatiba)		Laura Aznal	Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism	14.54%	7	N	[18] [19]
	Contigo/ Zurekin	List We Can (Podemos) United Left of Navarre (IUN/NEB) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Assembly (Batzarre) Green Alliance (AV) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo)		Begoña Alfaro	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	8.21% [lower-alpha 2]	3	Y	[20] [21] [22] [23] [24]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Maite Nosti	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	1.31%	0	N	[25]

There was debate on whether the Navarra Suma (NA+) alliance between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) and the People's Party (PP) would be renewed ahead of the 2023 election, ^[26] with some members within UPN advocating for their party to run under their own label instead while at most allowing some members from PP and Cs to be incorporated as independents within their lists. ^{[27] [28]}

UPN suffered a split following a troubling vote in the Congress of Deputies on the issue of labour reform on 3 February 2022, when deputies Sergio Sayas and Carlos García Adanero broke party discipline and voted against the reform proposed by Pedro Sánchez's government, almost succeeding in bringing it down despite the UPN leadership having pledged its support to the law. ^[29] As a result, both Sayas and Adanero had their party membership suspended, ^{[30] [31]} who then pledged to run on their own under a brand new platform. ^{[32] [33]} This was materialized during an event held on 14 June 2022, when the platform—provisionally dubbed as "Navarre Platform" (Spanish : Plataforma Navarra) ^[34] —was publicly announced, with the support of former high-ranking UPN officers such as former regional Development minister Luis Zarraluqui or former mayor of Estella Begoña Ganuza, among others. ^{[35] [36] [37]} By the end of 2022, this platform had entered talks with the PP to evaluate the prospects of fielding a joint list to the regional election. ^{[38] [39]}

Campaign

Election debates

2023 Navarrese regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present [lower-alpha 4]   S Surrogate [lower-alpha 5]   A Absent invitee
			UPN	CS	PP	PSN	GBai	EH Bildu	C/Z	Audience	Ref.
12 May	Cadena SER	Javier Lorente	P Esparza	P Nievas	P García	P Chivite	P Barkos	P Aznal	P Alfaro	—	[40]
16 May	Diario de Navarra	Yulen Garmendia	P Esparza	P Nievas	P García	P Chivite	P Barkos	P Aznal	P Alfaro	—	[41]
18 May	Navarra TV	Roberto Cámara Blanca Basiano	P Esparza	P Nievas	P García	P Chivite	P Barkos	P Aznal	P Alfaro	TBD	[42]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout											C/Z	PN	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	64.4	–	20.7 11	13.2 7	17.1 9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.3 2	28.0 15	7.3 3	0.4 0	6.1 3	[lower-alpha 7]	7.3
Sigma Dos/EiTB [p 1]	22–27 May 2023	1,600	?	–	19.6 10/11	16.0 8/9	16.3 9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.9 2	23.3 12/13	9.8 5	–	7.1 3/4	[lower-alpha 7]	3.7
NC Report/La Razón [p 2]	22 May 2023	?	?	–	18.9 10	15.7 8	15.6 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.8 2	24.5 13	10.6 5	–	7.9 4	[lower-alpha 7]	5.6
KeyData/Público [p 3]	17 May 2023	?	69.7	–	19.5 10	16.7 9	16.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.1 2	25.7 14	8.9 4	–	6.3 3	[lower-alpha 7]	6.2
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 4] [p 5]	11–17 May 2023	600	?	–	19.4 10	15.0 8	15.8 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.2 1	31.3 17	6.6 3	1.6 0	6.3 3	[lower-alpha 7]	11.9
Simple Lógica/Cadena SER [p 6]	3–12 May 2023	1,202	?	–	24.0 13	14.5 8	15.5 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.0 0/1	24.0 13	7.0 3/4	1.5 0	8.0 4	[lower-alpha 7]	Tie
Sigma Dos/EiTB [p 7] [p 8]	3–11 May 2023	1,358	?	–	21.8 11/12	14.6 7/8	16.2 8/9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.7 1/2	23.8 12/13	10.1 5	1.5 0	7.2 3/4	[lower-alpha 7]	2.0
CIES/Diario de Navarra [p 9]	2–11 May 2023	1,200	?	–	20.1 10/11	15.4 7/8	16.8 8/9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.3 2	27.2 14/15	9.5 5	1.4 0	4.9 2	[lower-alpha 7]	7.1
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 10] [p 11]	4–10 May 2023	600	?	–	19.4 10	15.1 8	16.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.2 1	31.2 17	6.5 3	1.6 0	6.3 3	[lower-alpha 7]	11.8
Gizaker/Grupo Noticias [p 12]	8–9 May 2023	900	71	–	20.0 10	19.0 10	16.3 9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.1 1	23.2 12	10.6 5	–	6.1 3	[lower-alpha 7]	3.2
Demométrica/Navarra TV [p 13] [p 14]	3–9 May 2023	1,200	74.6	–	20.1 11	15.4 7/8	15.9 8/9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.9 1/2	24.5 13	10.6 5/6	1.1 0	6.5 3	[lower-alpha 7]	4.4
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 15] [p 16]	26 Apr–3 May 2023	600	?	–	19.3 10	15.2 8	16.1 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.3 1	30.9 17	7.0 3	1.2 0	6.3 3	[lower-alpha 7]	11.6
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es [p 17]	18–26 Apr 2023	451	71.0	–	20.1 10/11	15.6 8/9	16.7 9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.3 1/2	21.8 11/12	11.9 6	2.0 0	6.6 3	[lower-alpha 7]	1.7
CIS [p 18] [p 19]	10–26 Apr 2023	507	?	–	18.8 9/12	16.6 8/10	15.9 8/10	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	5.0 2/3	21.5 10/13	10.8 5/6	0.8 0	6.3 2/4	[lower-alpha 7]	2.7
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 20] [p 21]	19–25 Apr 2023	600	?	–	19.3 10	15.4 8	16.1 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.3 1	30.6 17	7.0 3	1.2 0	6.4 3	[lower-alpha 7]	11.3
Aztiker/Gara [p 22] [p 23]	11–25 Apr 2023	500	?	–	18.7 10	15.6 8	16.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.0 2	27.5 15	6.5 3	–	9.1 4	[lower-alpha 7]	8.8
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 24] [p 25]	12–18 Apr 2023	600	?	–	19.5 10	15.2 8	16.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.5 1	31.0 17	6.4 3	1.3 0	6.6 3	[lower-alpha 7]	11.5
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 26] [p 27]	5–11 Apr 2023	600	?	–	20.1 10	14.7 8	16.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.7 2	31.6 17	5.4 2	1.4 0	6.7 3	[lower-alpha 7]	11.5
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 28] [p 29]	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	600	?	–	20.2 10	14.9 8	15.8 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.7 2	31.4 17	5.3 2	1.5 0	6.6 3	[lower-alpha 7]	11.2
KeyData/Público [p 30]	3 Apr 2023	?	69.1	–	18.2 10	16.9 9	15.5 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.1 1	27.5 15	8.3 4	–	6.5 3	[lower-alpha 7]	9.3
Simple Lógica/PSN [p 31]	13–17 Mar 2023	813	?	–	23.0 12/13	14.0 7	16.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.0 1/2	25.0 13/14	9.0 4/5	1.0 0	6.0 3	[lower-alpha 7]	2.0
NC Report/La Razón [p 32]	3–10 Mar 2023	?	69.2	–	15.1 8	17.1 9	14.2 7	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.1 1	28.8 16	9.4 5	–	8.3 4	[lower-alpha 7]	11.7
GAD3/EiTB [p 33] [p 34]	22–27 Feb 2023	1,204	?	–	18.9 10/11	16.7 8/9	15.1 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.4 2	23.1 12	11.9 6	–	6.3 3	[lower-alpha 7]	4.2
Aztiker/Gara [p 35] [p 36]	14–25 Feb 2023	500	?	–	18.5 10	16.0 8	16.1 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.9 2	27.5 15	7.1 3	–	8.2 4	[lower-alpha 7]	9.0
Gizaker/Grupo Noticias [p 37]	7–10 Feb 2023	1,200	?	–	21.2 11/12	18.4 9/10	17.0 9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	? 0	26.4 14/15	6.5 3	? 0	6.6 3	[lower-alpha 7]	5.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 38] [p 39]	27 Dec–2 Jan 2023	700	?	–	17.4 9	16.2 8/9	15.1 8	2.9 0/1	4.5 2	4.0 2	31.9 17/18	6.6 3	1.0 0	–	–	14.5
BIOK/PSN [p 40]	5–22 Dec 2022	1,000	?	–	25.0 13	13.0 7	15.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	2.0 0	27.0 14	8.0 4	1.0 0	8.0 4	–	2.0
CIS [lower-alpha 8] [p 41] [p 42]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	205	?	–	26.0 12/19	7.8 2/5	14.5 8/11	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.2 0/3	21.4 10/17	5.9 2/4	2.9 0/2	7.9 3/7	–	4.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 43]	16 Oct–25 Nov 2022	207	?	38.4 20	20.9 10	13.6 7	15.3 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.2 2	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	6.7 3	–	17.5
Gizaker/EiTB [p 44]	2–4 May 2022	650	?	32.1 17	21.9 11	15.0 8	17.3 9	3.5 1	4.5 2	3.9 2	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	10.2
CIES/PSN [p 45] [p 46]	29 Mar–21 Apr 2022	1,201	?	–	24.5 13	14.0 7	15.0 8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	5.0 2/3	25.0 14	4.0 1/2	–	8.5 4	2.0 0	0.5
CIES/UPN [p 47] [p 48]	Apr 2022	?	68	31.5 17	20.5 10	–	–	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	11.0
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre [p 49]	9–18 Sep 2021	1,200	72.2	34.5 18/19	23.0 12/13	13.1 7	14.0 7	4.0 2	4.8 2	1.5 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	11.5
inPactos [p 50]	19–27 Apr 2021	800	?	35.0 19	23.0 12	16.0 8	13.5 7	6.0 3	3.0 1	2.0 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	12.0
SyM Consulting [p 51] [p 52]	24–25 Mar 2021	691	72.4	36.0 20	20.9 11/12	17.6 9/10	15.0 8	2.7 0	3.2 1	2.4 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	15.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 53]	15 Oct 2020	740	?	37.4 21	22.3 12	13.8 7	16.7 9	3.2 1	2.8 0	2.0 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	15.1
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre [p 54]	9–19 Sep 2020	1,200	72.2	36.4 20	22.6 12	16.2 8	13.9 7	4.0 2	3.1 1	1.5 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	13.8
SyM Consulting [p 55] [p 56]	21–23 May 2020	667	72.0	38.1 21	19.7 10/11	17.9 9/10	14.7 8	3.5 1	2.4 0	2.1 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	18.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 57] [p 58]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	37.0 20	22.5 12	13.2 7	17.1 9	3.8 1	3.0 1	1.5 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	14.5
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—	65.9	29.6 (15)	25.0 (13)	3.8 (2)	16.9 (9)	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	5.8 (3)	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	16.6 (8)	–	4.6
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	68.5	36.6 20	20.6 11	17.3 9	14.5 7	4.7 2	3.0 1	1.3 0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	16.0

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size											C/Z	PN	?	N	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	–	13.8	8.9	11.5	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	2.9	18.7	4.8	0.3	4.1	[lower-alpha 7]	—	32.2	4.9
Simple Lógica/Cadena SER [p 6]	3–12 May 2023	1,202	–	16.6	–	–	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	–	12.8	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 7]	–	–	3.8
Sigma Dos/EiTB [p 8]	3–11 May 2023	1,358	–	17.5	9.2	11.1	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.1	15.1	5.8	0.7	5.2	[lower-alpha 7]	20.2	9.6	2.4
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es [p 17]	18–26 Apr 2023	451	–	13.1	7.3	12.9	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	1.7	10.9	6.1	1.0	7.1	[lower-alpha 7]	21.9	16.9	0.2
CIS [p 18]	10–26 Apr 2023	507	–	12.8	10.2	11.8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	3.5	13.4	7.0	0.5	3.6	[lower-alpha 7]	29.0	4.3	0.6
Simple Lógica/PSN [p 31]	13–17 Mar 2023	813	–	15.9	7.4	8.6	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	2.6	14.6	3.3	0.2	3.7	[lower-alpha 7]	–	–	1.3
GAD3/EiTB [p 59]	22–27 Feb 2023	1,204	–	16.2	9.5	9.8	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.1	12.6	7.8	0.6	5.0	[lower-alpha 7]	11.5	13.5	3.6
CIS [p 41]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	205	–	14.7	4.0	11.3	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	2.0	16.2	3.5	0.4	4.6	–	34.3	2.3	1.5
CIES/PSN [p 46]	29 Mar–21 Apr 2022	1,201	–	20.4	10.0	12.1	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	1.9	16.0	1.5	0.7	6.2	0.3	24.0	1.6	4.4
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre [p 49]	9–18 Sep 2021	1,200	10.1	14.9	8.1	9.5	7.2	3.4	0.8	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	32.6	8.6	4.8
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre [p 54]	9–19 Sep 2020	1,200	18.0	17.7	6.1	9.9	3.3	1.4	1.0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	31.5	7.9	0.3
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—	20.3	17.2	2.6	11.6	[lower-alpha 6]	[lower-alpha 6]	4.0	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	11.4	–	—	30.7	3.1
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	26.2	14.8	12.4	10.5	3.4	2.2	0.9	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	[lower-alpha 9]	–	–	—	27.8	11.4

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None	?	Lead
Aztiker/Gara [p 35]	14–25 Feb 2023	500	17.5	8.7	26.3	–	–	8.8

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None	?	Lead
Aztiker/Gara [p 35]	14–25 Feb 2023	500	14.2	12.5	16.2	–	–	2.0

Results

← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Parliament of Navarre election results

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Navarrese People's Union (UPN)1	92,392	28.01	n/a	15	±0
	Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)	68,247	20.69	+0.06	11	±0
	Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu)	56,535	17.14	+2.60	9	+2
	Yes to the Future (GBai)	43,660	13.24	–4.08	7	–2
	People's Party (PP)1	24,019	7.28	n/a	3	+1
	We Can–United Left–Assembly–Green Alliance–Greens Equo (Contigo/Zurekin)2	20,095	6.09	–1.66	3	±0
	Vox (Vox)	14,197	4.30	+3.00	2	+2
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,740	0.53	New	0	±0
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)1	1,273	0.39	n/a	0	–3
	Sunflower (Eguzkilore)	1,261	0.38	New	0	±0
	Foral Will (Voluntad Foral)	582	0.18	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		5,860	1.78	+1.00
Total		329,861			50	±0
Valid votes		329,861	98.62	–0.76
Invalid votes		4,632	1.38	+0.76
Votes cast / turnout		334,493	64.45	–4.08
Abstentions		184,505	35.55	+4.08
Registered voters		518,998
Sources [43]
Footnotes: 1 Within the Sum Navarre alliance in the 2019 election. 2 We Can–United Left–Assembly–Green Alliance–Greens Equo results are compared to the combined totals of We Can and Left in the 2019 election.

Popular vote UPN   28.01% PSN–PSOE   20.69% EH Bildu   17.14% GBai   13.24% PP   7.28% Contigo/Zurekin   6.09% Vox   4.30% Others   1.47% Blank ballots   1.78%

Seats UPN   30.00% PSN–PSOE   22.00% EH Bildu   18.00% GBai   14.00% PP   6.00% Contigo/Zurekin   6.00% Vox   4.00%

Aftermath

Further information: Second government of María Chivite

Investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called. ^[1]

Investiture María Chivite (PSN)
Ballot →		14 August 2023	15 August 2023
Required majority →		26 out of 50 N	Simple Y
	Yes • PSN (11) • GBai (7) • Contigo/Zurekin (3)	21 / 50	21 / 50
	No • UPN (15) • PP (3) • Vox (2)	20 / 50	20 / 50
	Abstentions • EH Bildu (9)	9 / 50	9 / 50
	Absentees	0 / 50	0 / 50
Sources

Notes

1. Within the NA+ alliance in the 2019 election.
2. Results for Podemos (4.74%, 2 seats), Left (3.01%, 1 seat) and Equo (0.46%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.
3. Results for NA+ in the 2019 election.
4. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
5. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
6. Within C/ZN.
7. Within PP.
8. Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.
9. Within NA+.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PNV ganaría en Bilbao y San Sebastián, EH Bildu en Vitoria y empate técnico en Pamplona". EiTB (in Spanish). 28 May 2023.
2. "Elecciones autonómicas: El PP arrebataría al PSOE la Comunidad Valenciana, Castilla-La Mancha y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 May 2023.
3. "EH Bildu volverá a ser clave para que la socialista Chivite repita Gobierno en Navarra". Público (in Spanish). 19 May 2023.
4. "Sondeo electoral/ Bildu no funciona a PP y Vox para obtener votos en Navarra". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
5. "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
6. "Elecciones autonómicas Navarra 2023: PSN y UPN en pugna por ser primera fuerza el 28 M". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 22 May 2023.
7. "UPN sería primera fuerza en Navarra, pero el PSN podría reeditar la actual fórmula de Gobierno". EiTB (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
8. "Encuesta electoral Comunidad Foral de Navarra y Ayuntamiento de Pamplona. Mayo 2023" (PDF). Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
9. "UPN sería el partido más votado y Chivite necesitaría aún más a Bildu para gobernar". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
10. "Más que una encuesta / Resultados devastadores para PP y Vox en Navarra, superados, por mucho, por Bildu y Podemos". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
11. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
12. "Encuesta en Navarra: los socios del Gobierno conservan su holgada mayoría". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
13. "UPN ganaría las forales pero PSN podría seguir gobernando". Navarra TV (in Spanish). 18 May 2023.
14. "Cuestiones de interés político y social. Mayo 2023" (PDF). Demométrica (in Spanish). 18 May 2023.
15. "Sondeo Electoral / Consulte el descalabro de la derecha en Navarra en las próximas elecciones autonómicas". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
16. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
17. "La división de la derecha facilita la reedición del Gobierno progresista de Chivite en Navarra". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
18. "Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Comunidad Foral de Navarra (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
19. "Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
20. "Navarra / UPN mantiene el liderato pero sería la izquierda la que podría gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
21. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
22. "Nafarroa: ligero viraje a la izquierda". Gara (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
23. "NAVARRA. Encuesta Aztiker 11/05/2023: EH BILDU 16,0% (8), GBAI 15,6% (8), CONTIGO-ZUREKIN 9,1% (4), PSOE 18,7% (10), UPN 27,5% (15), PP 6,5% (3), VOX 4,0% (2)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
24. "Navarra / UPN multiplica casi por cinco la intención de voto del PP". El Plural (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
25. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
26. "ElectoPanel Navarra / La derecha, muy lejos de arrebatar el gobierno a la izquierda y nacionalistas". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
27. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
28. "ElectoPanel Navarra / El PSOE mantendría Navarra con el apoyo del resto de la izquierda". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
29. "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
30. "Chivite mantendrá el Gobierno de coalición de izquierdas en Navarra". Público (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
31. "La ruptura con el PP llevaría a UPN a su peor resultado en casi 40 años según la encuesta encargada por el PSN". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 31 March 2023.
32. "Navarra: Chivite perdería el Gobierno en favor de Uxue Barkos". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 March 2023.
33. "UPN obtendría los peores resultados de su historia y la izquierda podría volver a hacer presidenta a Chivite". EiTB (in Spanish). 27 March 2023.
34. "Barómetro sociopolítico. Navarra. Marzo 2023" (PDF). GAD3 (in Spanish). 27 March 2023.
35. "EH Bildu y Contigo Navarra crecen, los bloques se mantienen y Vox entra". Gara (in Spanish). 19 March 2023.
36. "NAVARRA. Encuesta Aztiker 19/03/2023: EH BILDU 16,1% (8), GBAI 16,0% (8), CONTIGO-ZUREKIN 8,2% (4), PSOE 18,5% (10), UPN 27,5% (15), PP 7,1% (3), VOX 3,9% (2)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 19 March 2023.
37. "Los socios del Gobierno en Navarra refuerzan su mayoría". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 19 March 2023.
38. "El auge de Bildu acecha al Gobierno tripartito de Navarra liderado por el PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 January 2023.
39. "NAVARRA. Encuesta SigmaDos 09/01/2023: EH BILDU 15,1% (8), GBAI 16,2% (8/9), I-E 4,5% (2), PODEMOS 2,9% (0/1), PSOE 17,4% (9), UPN 31,9% (17/18), Cs 1,0%, PP 6,6% (3), VOX 4,0% (2)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 9 January 2023.
40. "La ruptura de Navarra Suma pone en riesgo a UPN como primera fuerza parlamentaria". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 13 January 2023.
41. "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
42. "Estimación de escaños elecciones autonómicas (Estudio nº 3386. Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
43. "EP (Navarra 30N): EH Bildu sube y se distancia de Geroa Bai". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 November 2022.
44. "NA+ ganaría las elecciones en Navarra, el PSN mantendría la fuerza y EH Bildu subiría". EiTB (in Spanish). 1 June 2022.
45. "Una encuesta interna del PSN les da 13 escaños y amplía el bloque progresista". Noticias de Navarra (in Spanish). 21 May 2022.
46. "Tendencia política de Navarra. Mayo 2022" (PDF). Promecal (in Spanish). 21 May 2022.
47. "A un año de las elecciones: UPN obtiene 7 escaños más que el PSN en una encuesta interna". Navarra.com (in Spanish). 28 May 2022.
48. "El cachondeo de las encuestas de CIES para el PSN y UPN". España Confidencial (in Spanish). 30 May 2022.
49. "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2021" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 20 December 2021.
50. "La crisis del coronavirus refuerza el apoyo al Gobierno de Navarra". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 6 May 2021.
51. "Estimación Marzo 2021. Navarra. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 29 March 2021.
52. "NAVARRA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 29/03/2021: EH BILDU 15,0% (8), GBAI 17,6% (9/10), I-E 3,2% (1), PODEMOS 2,7%, PSOE 20,9% (11/12), NA+ 36,0% (20), VOX 2,4%". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 March 2021.
53. "EP Autonómico (15oct): Page perdería Castilla-La Mancha. ERC sube, baja Junts y Vox roza el sorpasso a CUP en Cat. Bajada del PSN en Navarra". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2020.
54. "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2020" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
55. "Estimación Junio 2020. Navarra. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 June 2020.
56. "NAVARRA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 05/06/2020: EH BILDU 14,7% (8), GBAI 17,9% (9/10), I-E 2,4%, PODEMOS 3,5% (1), PSOE 19,7% (10/11), NA+ 38,1% (21), VOX 2,1%". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 June 2020.
57. "EP (17My): Navarra – Suben PSN, Nav+ y EH Bildu". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
58. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
59. "Informe Navarra. Marzo 2023". GAD3 (in Spanish). 2 April 2023.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra". Organic Law No. 13 of 10 August 1982 (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 June 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
4. "Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra". Law No. 16 of 17 December 1986 (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 June 2017.
5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 April 2023.
6. "Decreto Foral de la Presidenta de la Comunidad Foral de Navarra 3/2023, de 3 de abril, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra". Boletín Oficial de Navarra (in Spanish) (68): 13238. 4 April 2023. ISSN   1130-5894.
7. "Parliamentary groups". Parliament of Navarre (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 July 2020.
8. "Esparza será el candidato de UPN en las elecciones de 2023". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 14 January 2022. Retrieved 24 January 2022.
9. "Esparza dice que el PP "da por finiquitada NA+" de forma "unilateral" porque "antepone sus propias siglas"" (in Spanish). Pamplona: Europa Press. 15 August 2022. Retrieved 15 August 2022.
10. "UPN confirma la exclusiva de 'Herrera en COPE': irá en solitario a las elecciones sin Navarra Suma" (in Spanish). COPE. Europa Press. 12 December 2022. Retrieved 13 December 2022.
11. "Pérez-Nievas, proclamado candidato de Ciudadanos a la presidencia de Navarra". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 8 February 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
12. Calleja, Mariano (15 August 2022). "Miguel Tellado: "El PP debe ser un partido tan descentralizado como es España"". ABC (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 15 August 2022.
13. Salvoch, Íñigo (29 October 2022). "Javier García confirma su candidatura para presidir el PP de Navarra". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 November 2022.
14. "Los exdiputados de UPN Sayas y Adanero irán a las elecciones con el PP". El Periódico (in Spanish). Europa Press. 17 January 2023. Retrieved 17 January 2023.
15. "Chivite es reelegida secretaria general del PSN con el 97,22% de los votos" (in Spanish). Pamplona: Europa Press. 23 October 2021. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
16. "Chivite apuesta por seguir liderando un gobierno "progresista" tras las elecciones forales de 2023". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Europa Press. 21 May 2022. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
17. "Uxue Barkos repetirá como candidata de Geroa Bai a la presidencia de Navarra". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 23 January 2022. Retrieved 23 January 2022.
18. "La portavoz de EH Bildu en el Parlamento de Navarra no se presentará a las elecciones forales de 2023". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 3 May 2022. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
19. "Laura Aznal será la candidata de EH Bildu a la presidencia de Navarra". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Europa Press. 6 May 2022. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
20. "Podemos, IUN, Batzarre e independientes irán juntos a los comicios de 2023 a "fortalecer el cambio político" en Navarra" (in Spanish). Pamplona: Europa Press. 11 June 2022. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
21. "Contigo Navarra, el nombre de la alianza de izquierdas para las elecciones forales y municipales de 2023". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Europa Press. 2 July 2022. Retrieved 2 July 2022.
22. Encinas, Javier (4 November 2022). "Begoña Alfaro será la candidata de Contigo Navarra a la presidencia del Gobierno de Navarra". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 November 2022.
23. "Alianza Verde en Navarra se suma a Contigo-Zurekin para los comicios de mayo". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). EFE. 12 December 2022. Retrieved 9 January 2023.
24. "Verdes Equo se une a la coalición Contigo Navarra-Zurekin Nafarroa". Pamplona Actual (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 April 2023.
25. "Maite Nosti, candidata de VOX al Gobierno de Navarra". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 27 March 2023. Retrieved 16 May 2023.
26. Arnedo, Beatriz (23 April 2022). "Los partidos navarros revisan sus coaliciones de cara a 2023". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 May 2022.
27. "UPN debatirá este verano sobre su futuro con PP y Ciudadanos en Navarra Suma de cara a las elecciones del 2023". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Europa Press. 19 June 2021. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
28. Gurpegui, Iker (28 June 2021). "El posible final de Navarra Suma: Una realidad que inquieta en el Partido Popular y en Ciudadanos". El Cierre Digital (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 May 2022.
29. "Los dos diputados de UPN rompen con la disciplina de voto y deciden no apoyar la reforma laboral". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 3 February 2022. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
30. G. Lorenzo, Clara (5 February 2022). "UPN avala expulsar a Sayas y Adanero por votar en contra de la reforma laboral". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 February 2022.
31. Saiz, Rodrigo (1 March 2022). "UPN confirma la suspensión de militancia de Sayas y Adanero durante dos años y medio". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 May 2022.
32. Saiz, Rodrigo (20 March 2022). "La plataforma de Sayas y Adanero fractura a la derecha navarra". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 May 2022.
33. Esteban, Paloma (22 May 2022). "Los diputados díscolos de UPN lanzarán en junio su partido para las elecciones forales". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 May 2022.
34. "Sayas y Adanero presentan Plataforma Navarra como "alternativa real a Sánchez y Chivite"" (in Spanish). EiTB. Agencias. 15 June 2022. Retrieved 20 June 2022.
35. Fernández, Ibai (8 June 2022). "Sayas y Adanero lanzan una plataforma política en Navarra para abrir un espacio a la derecha de UPN". Noticias de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
36. Fernández, Ibai (14 June 2022). "Más de un centenar de simpatizantes respaldan la nueva Plataforma de Sayas y Adanero". Noticias de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
37. "Sayas y Adanero, contra todos en la presentación de su plataforma: "No pedimos perdón ni permiso"". Navarra.com (in Spanish). 14 June 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
38. Arnedo, Beatriz (15 December 2022). "El PP acuerda con Adanero y Sayas iniciar conversaciones para ir juntos a las elecciones". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 January 2023.
39. "Feijóo abrirá el PP a fichajes procedentes de Cs y UPN ante las elecciones municipales y generales". ABC (in Spanish). 7 January 2023. Retrieved 8 January 2023.
40. "La carrera al 28 de mayo comienza en SER Navarra: primer debate de los candidatos y candidatas a la presidencia del Gobierno de Navarra". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 May 2023. Retrieved 16 May 2023.
41. "Siga aquí en directo el debate de Diario de Navarra con los candidatos a la presidencia del Gobierno foral". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 16 May 2023. Retrieved 16 May 2023.
42. "Debate a 7 entre los candidatos a la presidencia de Navarra" (in Spanish). Navarra TV. 17 May 2023. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
43. "Resultados definitivos". Government of Navarre (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 June 2023.