Next Navarrese regional election

Next Navarrese regional election

←  2023 No later than 27 June 2027
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Cristina Ibarrola María Chivite Laura Aznal Party UPN PSN–PSOE EH Bildu Leader since 28 April 2024 19 October 2014 6 May 2022 Last election 15 seats, 28.0% 11 seats, 20.7% 9 seats, 17.1% Current seats 15 11 9 Seats needed 11 15 17   Leader Pablo Azcona Javier García Begoña Alfaro Party GBai PP Contigo/Zurekin Leader since 4 September 2023 4 December 2022 3 November 2022 Last election 7 seats, 13.2% 3 seats, 7.3% 3 seats, 6.1% Current seats 7 3 3 Seats needed 19 23 23
Incumbent President María Chivite PSN–PSOE

The next Navarrese regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on Sunday, 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. ^[2]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree shall be published in the BON no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 27 June 2027. ^{[1] [2] [3]}

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time. ^[4]

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group		UPN	15	15
	Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group		PSN–PSOE	11	11
	EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group		Sortu	9	9
	Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group		GSB/GSV	3	7
			EAJ/PNV	3
			AT	1
	People's Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group		PP	3	3
	Navarre With You Parliamentary Group		Podemos	2	3
			I–E (n)	1
	Mixed Group		Vox	2	2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [3]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	UPN	List Navarrese People's Union (UPN)		Cristina Ibarrola	Conservatism Christian democracy Regionalism	28.01%	15	N	[5]
	PSN–PSOE	List Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)		María Chivite	Social democracy	20.69%	11	Y
	EH Bildu	List Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) – Create (Sortu) – Basque Solidarity (EA) – Alternative (Alternatiba)		Laura Aznal	Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism	17.14%	9	N
	GBai	List Future Social Greens (GSB/GSV) Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) Villava Group (AT)		Pablo Azcona	Basque nationalism Social democracy	13.24%	7	Y	[6]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Javier García	Conservatism Christian democracy	7.28%	3	N
	Contigo/ Zurekin	List We Can (Podemos) United Left of Navarre (IUN/NEB) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Assembly (Batzarre) Green Alliance (AV) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo)		Begoña Alfaro	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	6.09%	3	Y
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Maite Nosti	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	4.30%	2	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout						C/Z					SALF	Lead
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	52.8	–	28.8 (16)	18.8 (10)	3.2 (1)	28.0 (16)	[a]	6.6 (3)	0.5 (0)	3.2 (1)	3.9 (2)	3.1 (1)	0.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 1]	30 Apr–27 May 2024	1,245	?	30.2 16	22.4 12	17.7 9	8.7 4	10.7 5	–	3.8 2	0.4 0	1.5 0	3.8 2	–	7.8
CIES/UPN [p 2] [p 3]	9–17 Apr 2024	1,000	?	31.8 17	18.7 10	20.9 11	11.5 6	5.5 2	5.3 2	5.1 2	–	[b]	–	–	10.9
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	66.4	15.3 (8)	27.4 (14)	17.2 (9)	2.9 (0)	16.7 (9)	[a]	5.7 (3)	–	[a]	12.8 (7)	–	10.2
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	64.4	28.0 15	20.7 11	17.1 9	13.2 7	7.3 3	6.1 3	4.3 2	0.4 0	[b]	–	–	7.3

Notes

1. Within Sumar.
2. Within C/ZN.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "ElectoPanel Navarra (29 mayo): UPN no logra mejorar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 May 2024.
2. "Según CÍES, UPN subiría a 17 escaños y Bildu daría un sorpasso al PSN en el Parlamento foral". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 29 May 2024.
3. "[A] NAVARRA. Encuesta CIES (interna UPN) 29/05/2024: UPN 31,8% (17), EH BILDU 20,9% (11), PSOE 18,7% (10), GBAI 11,5% (6), PP 5,5% (2), CONTIGO-ZUREKIN 5,3% (2), VOX 5,1% (2)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 29 May 2024.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra (Organic Law 13) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
2. Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Law 16) (in Spanish). 17 December 1986. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
3. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
4. "Grupos parlamentarios". Parliament of Navarre (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 May 2024.
5. "Cristina Ibarrola, elegida presidenta de UPN con el 81% de los apoyos" (in Spanish). Pamplona: Europa Press. 28 April 2024. Retrieved 10 November 2024.
6. Fernández, Ibai (4 September 2023). "Pablo Azcona asumirá la portavocía de Geroa Bai en el Parlamento de Navarra". Noticias de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 10 November 2024.