Next Balearic regional election

Next Balearic regional election

←  2023 No later than 27 June 2027
All 59 seats in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands 30 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Marga Prohens TBD Jorge Campos Party PP PSIB–PSOE Vox Leader since 24 July 2021 TBD 1 April 2019 Leader's seat Mallorca TBD Mallorca Last election 25 seats, 35.8% 18 seats, 26.5% 8 seats, 13.9% Current seats 25 18 8 Seats needed 5 12 22   Leader Lluís Apesteguia Josep Castells TBD Party Més MxMe EUIB–Podemos Leader since 24 October 2021 16 December 2018 TBD Leader's seat Mallorca Menorca TBD Last election 4 seats, 8.4% 2 seats, 1.4% 1 seat, 4.4% Current seats 4 2 1 Seats needed 26 28 29
Incumbent President Marga Prohens PP

The next Balearic regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Parliament of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands. All 59 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on Sunday, 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Balearic Islands is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Balearic Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Balearic Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 59 members of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats: ^{[1] [2]}

Seats	Constituencies
33	Mallorca
13	Menorca
12	Ibiza
1	Formentera

Election date

The term of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands (BOIB), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree shall be published in the BOIB no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 27 June 2027. ^{[1] [2] [3]}

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Balearic Islands and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a sixty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time. ^[4]

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	25	25
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSIB–PSOE	18	18
	Vox Balearics Parliamentary Group		Vox	7	7
	More for Mallorca Parliamentary Group		PSM–Entesa	4	4
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		MxMe	2	4
			Podemos	1
			Sa Unió	1
	Non-Inscrits		INDEP	1 [lower-alpha 1]	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [3]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Marga Prohens	Conservatism Christian democracy	35.79%	25	Y
	PSIB–PSOE	List Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE)		TBD	Social democracy	26.53%	18	N	[6]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Jorge Campos	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	13.90%	8	N
	Més	List Socialist Party of Majorca–Agreement (PSM–E) InitiativeGreens (IV) Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)		Lluís Apesteguia	Left-wing nationalism Democratic socialism Green politics	8.35%	4	N
	EUIB– Podemos	List We Can (Podemos) United Left of the Balearic Islands (EUIB) – Communist Party of the Balearic Islands (PCIB) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR)		TBD	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	4.43%	1	N
	MxMe	List More for Menorca (MxMe)		Josep Castells	Left-wing nationalism Democratic socialism Green politics	1.44%	2	N
	Sa Unió	List People's Party (PP) [lower-alpha 2] Commitment to Formentera (CompromísFormentera)		Llorenç Córdoba	Conservatism	0.39%	1	N
	GxF	List People for Formentera (GxF) Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE) [lower-alpha 2]		TBD	Environmentalism Democratic socialism	0.37%	0	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 30 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout												Lead
IBES/Última Hora [p 1]	13–17 May 2024	1,300	?	38.8 28	23.9 16	13.1 6	10.9 5	4.7 0	1.8 0	2.0 3	0.3 0	0.3 0	0.4 1	–	14.9
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	61.3	35.6 (23)	30.2 (18)	15.2 (7)	[lower-alpha 3]	[lower-alpha 3]	–	[lower-alpha 3]	–	–	–	16.6 (11)	5.4
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	55.1	35.8 25	26.5 18	13.9 8	8.4 4	4.4 1	3.8 0	1.4 2	1.4 0	0.4 1	0.4 0	–	9.3

Notes

1. Francisco José Cardona, former Vox legislator. ^[5]
2. In Formentera.
3. Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP crece a costa de Vox y la izquierda sigue sin sumar". Última Hora (in Spanish). 26 May 2024.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 1/2007, de 28 de febrero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de las Illes Balears (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 28 February 2007. Retrieved 13 September 2017.
2. Ley 8/1986, de 26 de noviembre, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de las Islas Baleares. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Law 8) (in Spanish). 26 November 1986. Retrieved 2 February 2020.
3. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
4. "L'hemicicle parlamentari" (PDF). Parliament of the Balearic Islands (in Catalan). Retrieved 26 May 2024.
5. Perpinyà, Joan Miquel (26 October 2023). "Primera baja en Vox: el diputado Cardona abandona el grupo parlamentario". Mallorca Diario (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 May 2024.
6. "Armengol renuncia como diputada en el Parlament" (in Spanish). Palma: Europa Press. 24 July 2023. Retrieved 26 May 2024.