2023 Ceuta Assembly election

2023 Ceuta Assembly election

←  2019 28 May 2023 2027 →
All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority
Registered	63,301 1.2%
Turnout	34,685 (54.8%) 0.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Juan Jesús Vivas Manuel Hernández Peinado Juan Sergio Redondo Party PP PSOE Vox Leader since October 1999 25 July 2015 22 April 2019 Last election 9 seats, 31.1% 7 seats, 25.6% 6 seats, 22.4% Seats won 9 6 5 Seat change 0 1 1 Popular vote 11,774 7,198 7,073 Percentage 34.3% 21.0% 20.6% Swing 3.2 pp 4.6 pp 1.8 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Fatima Hamed Mohamed Mustafa Party MDyC Ceuta Ya! Leader since 27 October 2014 15 October 2021 Last election 2 seats, 7.0% 1 seat, 6.2% [lower-alpha 1] Seats won 3 2 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 3,848 3,442 Percentage 11.2% 10.0% Swing 4.2 pp 3.8 pp
Mayor-President before election Juan Jesús Vivas PP Elected Mayor-President Juan Jesús Vivas PP

The 2023 Ceuta Assembly election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 8th Assembly of the autonomous city of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Electoral system

The Assembly of Ceuta was the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta. ^[1] Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allowed Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty. ^[2]

The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied. ^{[1] [2]}

The Mayor-President was indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause required that mayoral candidates earned the vote of an absolute majority of councillors, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly was to be automatically appointed to the post. In the event of a tie, the appointee would be determined by lot. ^[1]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called. ^[2]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				MDyC				CY!	CA	Lead
2023 Assembly election	28 May 2023	—	54.8	34.3 9	21.0 6	20.6 5	11.2 3	[lower-alpha 2]	0.7 0	0.6 0	10.0 2	–	13.3
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 1] [p 2]	11–17 May 2023	250	?	34.1 9	25.0 7	21.3 5	10.3 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.8 0	–	7.4 2	–	9.1
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 3] [p 4]	4–10 May 2023	250	?	33.4 9	25.3 7	21.6 5	10.4 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.8 0	–	7.4 2	–	8.1
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 5] [p 6]	26 Apr–3 May 2023	250	?	33.5 9	25.5 7	21.2 5	10.5 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.8 0	–	7.5 2	–	8.0
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 7] [p 8]	19–25 Apr 2023	250	?	33.5 9	25.8 7	20.8 5	10.2 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.6 0	–	7.8 2	–	7.7
GAD3/RTVCE [p 9]	20–24 Apr 2023	803	?	39.3 11	19.5 5	21.3 5/6	10.8 2/3	[lower-alpha 2]	0.3 0	1.1 0	6.0 1	–	18.0
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 10] [p 11]	12–18 Apr 2023	250	?	29.7 8	25.6 7	20.2 6	9.7 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.6 0	–	8.3 2	4.9 0	4.1
SyM Consulting [p 12] [p 13]	7–11 Apr 2023	818	49.6	24.9 6/7	21.9 6	31.8 8	10.7 2/3	[lower-alpha 2]	–	–	7.3 2	–	6.9
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 14] [p 15]	5–11 Apr 2023	250	?	30.4 9	25.1 7	19.9 5	9.8 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.6 0	–	8.3 2	4.9 0	5.3
Dialoga Consultores/CeutaTV [p 16]	9 Apr 2023	600	?	35.0 9/11	31.2 8/10	18.9 4/6	5.5 1/2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.3 0	0.3 0	3.5 0	4.2 0/1	3.8
ElectoPanel/El Plural [p 17] [p 18]	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	250	?	31.0 9	24.7 7	19.5 5	9.8 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.6 0	–	8.4 2	4.8 0	6.3
GAD3/El Pueblo de Ceuta [p 19]	23 Jan–10 Feb 2023	1,004	?	38.4 11	21.9 6	19.1 5	9.6 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.4 0	–	5.0 1	3.1 0	16.5
SyM Consulting [p 20] [p 21]	5–9 Dec 2022	1,279	52.8	25.4 6/7	20.2 5	32.8 9	7.4 1/2	[lower-alpha 2]	–	–	9.3 3	1.9 0	7.4
GAD3/El Pueblo de Ceuta [p 22]	2–14 Sep 2022	684	?	36.3 10	20.2 5	18.4 5	7.1 2	[lower-alpha 2]	0.4 0	–	6.0 1	9.9 2	16.1
SyM Consulting [p 23] [p 24]	6–10 Jul 2022	1,116	53.8	25.4 7	20.8 5/6	31.9 8/9	9.2 2	[lower-alpha 2]	–	–	7.2 2	2.2 0	6.5
NC Report/El Faro de Ceuta [p 25]	3 Feb 2022	?	57.9	33.8 9	27.4 8	23.4 6	5.1 1	[lower-alpha 2]	1.4 0	1.4 0	5.7 1	–	6.4
SyM Consulting [p 26] [p 27]	16–19 Dec 2021	740	56.0	23.8 6	22.1 6	32.9 8/9	11.6 3	[lower-alpha 2]	–	–	5.8 1/2	–	9.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 28]	30 Sep 2021	?	?	28.6 8	23.6 6	25.7 7	10.3 2	9.0 2	1.5 0	–	–	–	2.9
SyM Consulting [p 29] [p 30]	20–23 May 2021	732	53.2	26.6 7	23.3 6	28.2 7/8	10.1 2/3	7.8 2	–	–	–	–	1.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 31]	15 Feb 2021	400	?	31.7 9	21.1 6	22.4 6	10.2 2	10.4 2	1.9 0	–	–	–	9.3
SyM Consulting [p 32] [p 33]	9–12 Dec 2020	652	49.8	25.0 7	20.1 5/6	28.3 7/8	8.9 2	12.7 3	–	–	–	–	3.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 34]	16 Aug–26 Sep 2020	?	?	38.9 10	22.1 6	15.6 4	10.9 3	8.9 2	2.3 0	–	–	–	16.8
SyM Consulting [p 35] [p 36]	12–13 Sep 2020	687	50.8	29.8 8	20.5 5/6	23.4 6/7	11.4 3	9.7 2	–	–	–	–	6.4
SyM Consulting [p 37] [p 38]	22–23 Jun 2020	564	59.3	35.4 9/10	26.1 7	14.5 4	8.3 2/3	9.2 2	1.8 0	–	–	–	9.3
SyM Consulting [p 39] [p 40]	25–26 May 2020	541	65.9	39.3 10/11	18.2 5	8.4 2	16.8 4/5	12.0 3	1.4 0	–	–	–	21.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 41] [p 42]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	40.0 11	24.2 7	16.4 4	7.6 2	6.4 1	2.4 0	–	–	–	15.8
SyM Consulting [p 43] [p 44]	1–2 Feb 2020	534	61.7	39.1 10/11	24.9 7	7.9 2	12.5 3	10.1 2/3	1.6 0	–	–	–	14.2
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—	54.0	22.3 6	31.3 9	35.2 10	2.5 0	–	3.4 0	3.9 0	–	–	3.9
2019 Assembly election	26 May 2019	—	54.5	31.1 9	25.6 7	22.4 6	7.0 2	6.2 1	4.5 0	1.5 0	–	–	5.5

Results

← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Assembly of Ceuta election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	11,774	34.34	+3.22	9	±0
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	7,198	21.00	–4.60	6	–1
	Vox (Vox)	7,073	20.63	–1.74	5	–1
	Movement for Dignity and Citizenship (MDyC)	3,848	11.22	+4.26	3	+1
	Ceuta Now! (Ceuta Ya!)1	3,442	10.04	+3.82	2	+1
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)	239	0.70	–3.84	0	±0
	We Can (Podemos)2	192	0.56	–0.93	0	±0
	Free (LB)	122	0.36	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		394	1.15	+0.55
Total		34,282			25	±0
Valid votes		34,282	98.84	–0.30
Invalid votes		403	1.16	+0.30
Votes cast / turnout		34,685	54.79	+0.25
Abstentions		28,616	45.21	–0.25
Registered voters		63,301
Sources [3]
Footnotes: 1 Ceuta Now! results are compared to Caballas Coalition totals in the 2019 election. 2 We Can results are compared to the totals of United We Can–United Left–Equo in the 2019 election.

Popular vote PP   34.34% PSOE   21.00% Vox   20.63% MDyC   11.22% CY!   10.04% Others   1.61% Blank ballots   1.15%

Seats PP   36.00% PSOE   24.00% Vox   20.00% MDyC   12.00% CY!   8.00%

Aftermath

Investiture
Ballot →		17 June 2023
Required majority →		13 out of 25 [lower-alpha 3]
	Juan Jesús Vivas (PP) • PP (9)	9 / 25	Y
	Fatima Hamed (MDyC) • MDyC (3)	3 / 25	N
	Mohamed Mustafa (Ceuta Ya!) • Ceuta Ya! (2)	2 / 25	N
	Blank ballots • PSOE (6) • Vox (5)	11 / 25
	Absentees	0 / 25
Sources [4]

Notes

1. Results for Caballas in the 2019 election.
2. Within CY!.
3. If no candidate reaches an absolute majority, the candidate from the largest party is elected as Mayor

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El sondeo de Ceuta y Melilla al margen de las sospechas de la compra de voto". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
2. "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
3. "Esto es lo que pasará el 28-M en Ceuta y Melilla, según el último pronóstico electoral". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
4. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
5. "La estimación de escaños de Ceuta y Melilla deja todo abierto de cara a las elecciones autonómicas". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
6. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
7. "Ceuta y Melilla / El PP ganaría en las ciudades autónomas, pero necesitaría el apoyo de la extrema derecha". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
8. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
9. "Encuesta elecciones Ceuta". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 April 2023.
10. "Ceuta y Melilla / El PP necesitaría de la extrema derecha para gobernar en las ciudades autónomas". El Plural (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
11. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
12. "Estimación oleada Abril 2023. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 28 April 2023.
13. "[AUT] CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 28/04/2023: CEUTA YA! 7,3% (2), MDyC 10,7% (2/3), PSOE 21,9% (6), PP 24,9% (6/7), VOX 31,8% (8)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 28 April 2023.
14. "ElectoPanel Ceuta y Melilla / El PP necesitaría pactar con Vox o PSOE para repetir gobierno". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
15. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
16. "Encuesta electoral. Hay partido. El PP va ganando (10), pero el PSOE podría ganar (9)". CeutaTV (in Spanish). 9 April 2023.
17. "ElectoPanel Ceuta y Melilla / El PP ganaría las elecciones en ambas ciudades autónomas, pero necesitaría apoyos para gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
18. "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
19. "Vivas ganaría las elecciones, a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta según GAD3". El Pueblo de Ceuta (in Spanish). 21 February 2023.
20. "Estimación oleada Diciembre 2022. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 4 January 2023.
21. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 04/01/2023: CEUTA YA! 9,3% (3), MDyC 7,4% (1/2), PSOE 20,2% (5), CEUTA AVANZA 1,9%, PP 25,4% (6/7), VOX 32,8% (9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 January 2023.
22. "El PP sumaría un escaño más y ganaría de nuevo las elecciones en Ceuta, según GAD3". El Pueblo de Ceuta (in Spanish). 20 September 2022.
23. "Estimación oleada Julio 2022. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 15 July 2022.
24. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 15/07/2022: CEUTA YA! 7,2% (2), MDyC 9,2% (2), PSOE 20,8% (5/6), CEUTA AVANZA 2,2%, PP 25,4% (7), VOX 31,9% (8/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 July 2022.
25. "Una encuesta de NC Report da al PP la victoria electoral en 2023". El Faro de Ceuta (in Spanish). 3 February 2022.
26. "Estimación oleada Diciembre 2021. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 December 2021.
27. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/12/2021: CEUTA YA! 5,8% (1/2), MDyC 11,6% (3), PSOE 22,1% (6), PP 23,8% (6), VOX 32,9% (8/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 December 2021.
28. "EP Ceuta (30S): PP y Vox entran en empate técnico". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 September 2021.
29. "Estimación oleada Mayo 2021. Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 26 May 2021.
30. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 26/05/2021: CABALLAS 7,8% (2), MDyC 10,1% (2/3), PSOE 23,3% (6), PP 26,6% (7), VOX 28,2% (7/8)". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 May 2021.
31. "EP (15F): doble sorpasso en Ceuta (Vox al PSOE y Caballas a MDyC). En Melilla, bajada del PP y subida de CpM, que le acecha". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 February 2021.
32. "Estimación oleada Diciembre 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
33. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 21/12/2020: CABALLAS 12,7% (3), MDyC 8,9% (2), PSOE 20,1% (5/6), PP 25,0% (7), VOX 28,3% (7/8)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
34. "EP Autonómico (30S): subida de MDyC y bajada del PP que dejan a la izquierda más cerca del Gobierno de Ceuta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 September 2020.
35. "Estimación oleada Septiembre 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 17 September 2020.
36. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 17/09/2020: CABALLAS 9,7% (2), MDyC 11,4% (3), PSOE 20,5% (5/6), PP 29,8% (8), VOX 23,4% (6/7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 September 2020.
37. "Estimación oleada Julio 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 June 2020.
38. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/06/2020: CABALLAS 9,2% (2/3), MDyC 8,3% (2), PSOE 26,1% (7), Cs 1,8%, PP 35,4% (9/10), VOX 14,5% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 June 2020.
39. "Estimación oleada Mayo 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 1 June 2020.
40. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 01/06/2020: CABALLAS 12,0% (3), MDyC 16,8% (4/5), PSOE 18,2% (5), Cs 1,4%, PP 39,3% (10/11), VOX 8,4% (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 June 2020.
41. "EP (17My): Ceuta – trasvase de Vox al PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
42. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
43. "Estimación oleada Febrero 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 February 2020.
44. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 05/02/2020: CABALLAS 10,1% (2/3), MDyC 12,5% (3), PSOE 24,9% (7), Cs 1,6%, PP 39,1% (10/11), VOX 7,9% (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 February 2020.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 1/1995, de 13 de marzo, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Ceuta". Law No. 1 of 13 March 1995 (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 February 2020.
2. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 April 2023.
3. "Resolución de 5 de julio de 2023, de la Presidencia de la Junta Electoral Central, por la que se procede a la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones locales convocadas por Real Decreto 207/2023, de 3 de abril, y celebradas el 28 de mayo de 2023, según los datos que figuran en las actas de proclamación remitidas por cada una de las Juntas Electorales de Zona. Provincias: Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Segovia, Sevilla, Soria, Tarragona, Teruel, Toledo, Valencia, Valladolid, Zamora y Zaragoza. Ciudades Autónomas de Ceuta y Melilla" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (261): 145194–146077. 1 November 2023. ISSN   0212-033X.
4. "El popular Juan Vivas, investido por séptima vez presidente de Ceuta con la abstención de PSOE y Vox". eldiario.es. 17 June 2023. Retrieved 20 June 2023.