2023 Balearic regional election

Last updated

2023 Balearic regional election
Flag of the Balearic Islands.svg
  2019 28 May 2023

All 59 seats in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands
30 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered828,278 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 3.3%
Turnout456,505 (55.1%)
Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 1.2 pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Marga Prohens 2023b (cropped).jpg Francina Armengol 2021 (cropped).jpg Jorge Campos 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Marga Prohens Francina Armengol Jorge Campos
Party PP PSIB–PSOE Vox
Leader since24 July 202125 February 20121 April 2019
Leader's seat Mallorca Mallorca Mallorca
Last election16 seats, 22.2%19 seats, 27.4%3 seats, 8.1%
Seats won25188
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 9 Red Arrow Down.svg 1 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 5
Popular vote161,267119,54062,637
Percentage35.8%26.5%13.9%
Swing Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 13.6 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 0.9 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 5.8 pp

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Lluis Apesteguia 2023 (cropped).jpg Portrait placeholder.svg Antonia Jover 2022 (cropped).jpg
Leader Lluís Apesteguia Josep Castells Antònia Jover
Party Més MxMe EUIB–Podemos
Leader since24 October 202116 December 20184 November 2022
Leader's seat Mallorca Menorca Mallorca (lost)
Last election4 seats, 9.2%2 seats, 1.4%6 seats, 9.7%
Seats won421
Seat change Arrow Blue Right 001.svg 0 Arrow Blue Right 001.svg 0 Red Arrow Down.svg 5
Popular vote37,6516,48619,980
Percentage8.4%1.4%4.4%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg 0.8 pp Arrow Blue Right 001.svg 0.0 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 5.3 pp

 Seventh partyEighth partyNinth party
  Portrait placeholder.svg Portrait placeholder.svg Patricia Guasp 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Llorenç Córdoba Josep Melià Patricia Guasp
Party Sa Unió El Pi CS
Leader since6 March 202326 November 202228 September 2020
Leader's seat Formentera Mallorca (lost) Mallorca (lost)
Last election0 seats, 0.3%3 seats, 7.3%5 seats, 9.9%
Seats won100
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 1 Red Arrow Down.svg 3 Red Arrow Down.svg 4
Popular vote1,74717,0896,097
Percentage0.4%3.8%1.4%
Swing Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.1 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 3.5 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 8.5 pp

Mapa de los resultados de las elecciones autonomicas de Baleares 2023 por municipios.svg

President before election

Francina Armengol
PSOE

Elected President

Marga Prohens
PP

The 2023 Balearic regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Parliament of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands. All 59 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Contents

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Balearic Islands was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Balearic Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. [1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Balearic Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish : Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. [2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force. [3]

The 59 members of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats: [1] [4]

SeatsConstituencies
33 Mallorca
13 Menorca
12 Ibiza
1 Formentera

Election date

The term of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands (BOIB), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the BOIB no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 25 June 2023. [1] [4] [5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Balearic Islands and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a sixty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. [1]

The Parliament of the Balearic Islands was officially dissolved on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOIB, setting the election date for 28 May. [6]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution. [7]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSIB–PSOE 1919
People's Parliamentary Group PP 1616
United We Can Parliamentary Group Podemos 56
EM–EU 1
Citizens Parliamentary Group CS 44
More for Mallorca Parliamentary Group PSM–Entesa 44
Vox–ACTUA Balearics Parliamentary Group Vox 33
El Pi–Proposal for the Isles Parliamentary Group El Pi 33
Mixed Parliamentary Group MxMe 23
PSIB–PSOE 1 [lower-alpha 1]
Non-Inscrits INDEP 1 [lower-alpha 2] 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [4] [5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Votes (%)Seats
PSIB–PSOE Francina Armengol 2021 (cropped).jpg Francina Armengol Social democracy 27.37%19Yes check.svg [10]
PP
List
Marga Prohens 2023b (cropped).jpg Marga Prohens Conservatism
Christian democracy
22.20%16X mark.svg [11]
CS Patricia Guasp 2023 (cropped).jpg Patricia Guasp Liberalism 9.90%5X mark.svg [12]
[13]
EUIB–
Podemos
Antonia Jover 2022 (cropped).jpg Antònia Jover Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
9.74%6Yes check.svg [14]
Més Lluis Apesteguia 2023 (cropped).jpg Lluís Apesteguia Left-wing nationalism
Democratic socialism
Green politics
9.18%4Yes check.svg [15]
Vox
List
Jorge Campos 2023 (cropped).jpg Jorge Campos Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
8.12%3X mark.svg [16]
El Pi Portrait placeholder.svg Josep Melià Regionalism
Liberalism
7.30%3X mark.svg [17]
[18]
MxMe
List
Portrait placeholder.svg Josep Castells Left-wing nationalism
Democratic socialism
Green politics
1.41%2X mark.svg [19]
GxF Portrait placeholder.svg Silvia Tur Environmentalism
Democratic socialism
0.47%1X mark.svg [20]
Sa Unió
List
Portrait placeholder.svg Llorenç Córdoba Conservatism 0.33%0X mark.svg [21]

Campaign

Election debates

2023 Balearic regional election debates
DateOrganisersModerator(s)   P Present [lower-alpha 4]   S Surrogate [lower-alpha 5]   NI Non-invitee  A Absent invitee 
PSIB PP UP CS Més Vox El Pi MxMe GxF AudienceRef.
2 MayDiario de Mallorca
Fibwi TV
Marisa GoñiP
Armengol
P
Prohens
P
Jover
P
Guasp
P
Apesteguia
P
Campos
P
Melià
NINI [22]
14 May IB3 Xavi Garcia
Neus Albis
P
Armengol
P
Prohens
P
Jover
P
Guasp
P
Apesteguia
P
Campos
P
Melià
P
Castells
P
Tur
5.2%
(16,000)
[23]
[24]
15 May Última Hora
CESAG
Nekane DomblásS
Armengol
P
Prohens
P
Jover
P
Guasp
P
Apesteguia
P
Campos
P
Melià
NINI [25]
16 MayEspai Mallorca
Passes Perdudes
Pau TorresS
Fernández
S
Durán
S
Sans
NIS
Matas
NIS
Mut
P
Castells
S
Cardona
[26]
26 May Cadena SER
El País
Juan Antonio BauzáS
Armengol
P
Prohens
P
Jover
P
Guasp
P
Apesteguia
NIP
Melià
NINI [27]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

OpinionPollingBalearicRegionalElection2023.svg
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 30 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Balearic Islands.

Results

Overall

Summary of the 28 May 2023 Parliament of the Balearic Islands election results
BalearicParliamentDiagram2023.svg
Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeats
Votes %±pp Total+/−
People's Party (PP)161,26735.79+13.5925+9
Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE)119,54026.53–0.8418–1
Vox (Vox)62,63713.90+5.788+5
More for Mallorca (Més)37,6518.35–0.834±0
United We Can (EUIBPodemos)19,9804.43–5.311–5
El Pi–Proposal for the Isles (El Pi)17,0893.79–3.510–3
More for Menorca (MxMe)6,4861.44+0.032±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)6,0971.35–8.550–5
Progress in Green–PACMA (Progreso en Verde–PACMA)14,3890.97–0.430±0
The Union of Formentera (PP–CompromísFormentera) (Sa Unió)1,7470.39+0.061+1
People for Formentera+PSOE (GxF+PSOE)1,6790.37–0.100–1
Now Ibiza (Ara Eivissa)1,4070.31+0.030±0
Spanish Liberal Project (PLIE)8170.18+0.080±0
Coalition for the Balearics (CperB)7620.17New0±0
EPIC Ibiza Citizen Movement–El Pi (EPIC–El Pi)25970.13–0.510±0
Political Reset (Reset)5090.11New0±0
For the Balearics (PerxB)4240.09New0±0
New National Order (Orden)3590.08New0±0
Blank ballots7,2071.60+0.59
Total450,64459±0
Valid votes450,64498.72–0.58
Invalid votes5,8611.28+0.58
Votes cast / turnout456,50555.11+1.18
Abstentions371,77344.89–1.18
Registered voters828,278
Sources [28]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
35.79%
PSIB–PSOE
26.53%
Vox–AB
13.90%
Més
8.35%
EUIB–Podemos
4.43%
El Pi
3.79%
MxMe
1.44%
CS
1.35%
Sa Unió
0.39%
Others
2.43%
Blank ballots
1.60%
Seats
PP
42.37%
PSIB–PSOE
30.51%
Vox–AB
13.56%
Més
6.78%
MxMe
3.39%
EUIB–Podemos
1.69%
Sa Unió
1.69%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSIB Vox Més UP MxMe Sa Unió
 %S %S %S %S %S %S %S
Formentera 3.346.51
Ibiza 48.8725.649.216.4
Mallorca 34.21326.91015.3610.444.0
Menorca 38.7526.747.216.8116.62
Total35.82526.51813.988.444.411.420.41
Sources [28]

Aftermath

Investiture
Marga Prohens (PP)
Ballot →4 July 20236 July 2023
Required majority →30 out of 59 X mark.svgSimple Yes check.svg
Yes
26 / 59
26 / 59
No
25 / 59
25 / 59
Abstentions
8 / 59
8 / 59
Absentees
0 / 59
0 / 59
Sources [29] [30]

Notes

  1. Antonio Jesús Sanz, representing the GxF+PSOE+EU coalition for the single-member constituency of Formentera. [8]
  2. Maxo Benalal, former CS legislator. [9]
  3. 1 2 In Formentera.
  4. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  5. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  6. 1 2 Within Més.
  7. Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.
  8. 1 2 Within Més Esquerra.

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References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Resultados Elecciones Autonómicas de Baleares: El PP es el partido más votado según la encuesta de IB3". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 28 May 2023.
  2. "Elecciones autonómicas: El PP arrebataría al PSOE la Comunidad Valenciana, Castilla-La Mancha y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 May 2023.
  3. "La izquierda y la derecha se disputan Balears en uno de los escenarios más abiertos del 28M". Público (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  4. "PP y Vox siguen a un diputado de conseguir la mayoría absoluta para derrotar a Armengol en Baleares". OKDiario (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  5. "Vuelco a la derecha: PP y Vox lograrían la mayoría y el PI se quedaría a las puertas". Última Hora (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  6. "Más que una encuesta: al PP y a Vox no le salen las cuentas en Baleares". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  7. "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  8. "La izquierda pierde la mayoría en el Parlament y queda a expensas del Pi". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  9. "Se confirma el vuelco electoral en Baleares". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  10. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  11. "Vuelco en Baleares y dos diputados que pueden ser clave para gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  12. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  13. 1 2 "Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Comunidad Autónoma de les Illes Balears (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  14. "Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  15. "Islas Baleares / La izquierda y nacionalistas, a solo un diputado de impedir el gobierno de PP y Vox". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  16. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  17. "Baleares / Escenario electoral muy ajustado en las Islas". El Plural (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
  18. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  19. "Armengol gana en Balears y puede repetir su actual pacto con Més y Unidas Podemos para un tercer mandato". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 21 April 2023.
  20. "Prohens logra 24 diputados, el Pacte no suma y los pactos decidirán el Govern". Mallorca Diario (in Spanish). 2 May 2023.
  21. "PP y Vox se quedan a un diputado de la mayoría absoluta para derrotar a Armengol en Baleares". OKDiario (in Spanish). 16 April 2023.
  22. "ElectoPanel Islas Baleares / Fuerte subida del PSOE, cada vez más cerca de repetir Gobierno". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  23. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  24. "ElectoPanel Islas Baleares / El PSOE sube y tiene posibilidades de mantener el gobierno". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  25. "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  26. "Empate técnico en Illes Balears entre los bloques de izquierda y derecha". Público (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  27. "Baleares. El PP y Vox frenan un nuevo gobierno de Armengol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 March 2023.
  28. "PP y Vox logran la mayoría absoluta en Baleares por la caída de Armengol y Podemos y la extinción de CS". OKDiario (in Spanish). 17 February 2023.
  29. "La izquierda acaricia su tercer mandato pero PP y Vox acechan". Última Hora (in Spanish). 29 January 2023.
  30. "'Sorpasso' del PP en Baleares que roza con Vox la mayoría absoluta ante un PSOE en retroceso". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 December 2022.
  31. "ILLES BALEARS. Encuesta SigmaDos 26/12/2022: PODEM-EUIB 7,9% (4), MÉS 11,1% (5), MxME 2,0% (3), GxF 0,4% (1), PSOE 21,7% (13/14), EL PI 6,9% (3), Cs 3,3% (0/1), PP 28,6% (23/25), VOX 11,5% (5)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 25 December 2022.
  32. 1 2 "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  33. "PP y Vox rozan la mayoría absoluta en Baleares por la caída de Armengol y la desaparición de Cs". OKDiario (in Spanish). 7 November 2022.
  34. "La alianza del PP y Vox bordea la mayoría absoluta en Baleares". Última Hora (in Spanish). 9 October 2022.
  35. "Baleares gira a la derecha y abre la puerta al cambio político por la caída del PSIB". Última Hora (in Spanish). 20 March 2022.
  36. "El PP gana las elecciones en Baleares, el PSOE pierde 2 escaños y Vox se dispara al pasar de 3 a 7 diputados". OKDiario (in Spanish). 23 September 2021.
  37. 1 2 "El PP vuelve a ser el partido más votado pero queda lejos del Govern". Última Hora (in Spanish). 4 July 2021.
  38. "ILLES BALEARS. Encuesta IBES 04/07/2021: PODEM-EUIB 10,1% (5/6), MÉS 8,9% (4), MxME 1,4% (2), GxF-PSOE-EUIB (1), PSOE 24,5% (16/17), PI 6,9% (2/3), Cs 6,8% (3/4), PP 26,9% (18/20), VOX 9,9% (4/5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 July 2021.
  39. "Los partidos de izquierdas ganan pero Armengol sube a costa de sus socios". Última Hora (in Spanish). 21 June 2020.
  40. "ILLES BALEARS. Encuesta IBES 21/06/2020: UNIDES PODEM 9,0% (5/6), MÉS 8,2% (3/4), MxME 1,3% (2), GxF-PSOE-EUIB (1), PSOE 28,7% (19/21), EL PI 5,8% (2), Cs 7,0% (3/4), PP 24,2% (17/18), VOX 10,4% (3/5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 June 2020.
  41. "EP (17My): Baleares – sube el PP, pero Armengol podría mantener el Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  42. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  43. 1 2 "El PP avanza en las encuestas de Baleares y supera al PSOE en intención de voto". MallorcaDiario.com (in Spanish). 28 May 2021.
Other
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  23. "Les claus d'"El Debat" d'IB3 als candidats i candidates a la presidència del Govern de les Illes del 28M". IB3 (in Catalan). 14 May 2023. Retrieved 16 May 2023.
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  29. Ballesteros, Esther (4 July 2023). "Prohens cae en la primera votación para presidir Balears y el PP se encomienda a la abstención de Vox este jueves". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 July 2023.
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