2023 Aragonese regional election

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2023 Aragonese regional election
Flag of Aragon.svg
  2019 28 May 2023 Next  

All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon
34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,019,050 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.1%
Turnout678,112 (66.5%)
Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.3 pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Jorge Azcon 2024 (cropped).jpg Javier Lamban 2021 (cropped).jpg Alejandro Nolasco 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Jorge Azcón Javier Lambán Alejandro Nolasco
Party PP PSOE Vox
Leader since19 December 202131 March 201223 December 2022
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Teruel
Last election16 seats, 20.9%24 seats, 30.8%3 seats, 6.1%
Seats won28237
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 12 Red Arrow Down.svg 1 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 4
Popular vote237,817197,91975,349
Percentage35.5%29.6%11.2%
Swing Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 14.6 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 1.2 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 5.1 pp

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Jose Luis Soro 2015b (cropped).jpg Tomas Guitarte 2019c (cropped).jpg Maru Diaz 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader José Luis Soro Tomás Guitarte Maru Díaz
Party CHA Existe PodemosAV
Leader since10 February 201228 January 202327 November 2018
Leader's seat Zaragoza Teruel Zaragoza
Last election3 seats, 6.3%Did not contest5 seats, 8.1%
Seats won331
Seat change Arrow Blue Right 001.svg 0 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 3 Red Arrow Down.svg 4
Popular vote34,16333,19026,923
Percentage5.1%5.0%4.0%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg 1.2 pp New party Red Arrow Down.svg 4.1 pp

 Seventh partyEighth partyNinth party
  Mitin IU marca de agua foto-Pablo Ibanez-20 (cropped).jpg Alberto Izquierdo 2023 (cropped).jpg Portrait placeholder.svg
Leader Álvaro Sanz Alberto Izquierdo Carlos Ortas
Party IU PAR CS–Tú Aragón
Leader since27 May 201710 March 202322 March 2023
Leader's seat Zaragoza Teruel Zaragoza (lost)
Last election1 seat, 3.3%3 seats, 5.1%12 seats, 16.7%
Seats won110
Seat change Arrow Blue Right 001.svg 0 Red Arrow Down.svg 2 Red Arrow Down.svg 12
Popular vote20,95913,9888,595
Percentage3.1%2.1%1.3%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg 0.2 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 3.0 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 15.4 pp

President before election

Javier Lambán
PSOE

Elected President

Jorge Azcón
PP

The 2023 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Contents

The election saw a victory for the People's Party (PP) which, together with the far-right Vox, was able to command a majority of seats in the Cortes. The previous government, formed by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), Podemos, Aragonese Union (CHA) and the Aragonese Party (PAR) under two-term Aragonese president Javier Lambán, fell five seats short of a majority even with the support of United Left (IU). As a result, PP leader Jorge Azcón was able to become new regional president through a coalition with Vox.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. [1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish : Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. [2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force. [3]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one). [1] [4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats: [5]

SeatsConstituencies
35 Zaragoza
18 Huesca
14 Teruel

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude. [6]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the BOA no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 25 June 2023. [1] [4] [7]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. [1]

In November 2021, following emerging speculation on possible snap elections in Andalusia and Castile and León to be called by the spring of 2022, [8] as well as a similar move in the Valencian Community being considered by Valencian president Ximo Puig, [9] it transpired that Lambán had been evaluating the opportunity of a simultaneous early election in Aragon in order to catch the regional People's Party (PP) leaderless and off-guard and to benefit from an improving economic situation. [10] Lambán himself ruled out such possibility on 11 November and maintained that the election would be held in May 2023. [11]

The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 23 June. [5]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution. [12]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 2424
People's Parliamentary Group in the Cortes of Aragon PP 1616
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry Parliamentary Group CS 1212
We Can–Equo Aragon Parliamentary Group Podemos 55
Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group CHA 33
Vox Parliamentary Group in Aragon Vox 33
Aragonese Parliamentary Group PAR 33
Mixed Parliamentary Group IU 11

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [4] [7]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Votes (%)Seats
PSOE Javier Lamban 2021 (cropped).jpg Javier Lambán Social democracy 30.84%24Yes check.svg [13]
[14]
[15]
PP
List
Jorge Azcon 2024 (cropped).jpg Jorge Azcón Conservatism
Christian democracy
20.87%16X mark.svg [16]
[17]
[18]
[19]
CS–
Tú Aragón
List
Portrait placeholder.svg Carlos Ortas Liberalism 16.67%12X mark.svg [20]
[21]
PodemosAV
List
Maru Diaz 2023 (cropped).jpg Maru Díaz Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
8.11%5Yes check.svg [22]
CHA
List
Jose Luis Soro 2015b (cropped).jpg José Luis Soro Aragonese nationalism
Eco-socialism
6.26%3Yes check.svg [23]
Vox
List
Alejandro Nolasco 2023 (cropped).jpg Alejandro Nolasco Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
6.08%3X mark.svg [24]
PAR
List
Alberto Izquierdo 2023 (cropped).jpg Alberto Izquierdo Regionalism
Centrism
5.08%3Yes check.svg [25]
[26]
IU Mitin IU marca de agua foto-Pablo Ibanez-20 (cropped).jpg Álvaro Sanz Socialism
Communism
3.32%1X mark.svg [27]
Existe Tomas Guitarte 2019c (cropped).jpg Tomás Guitarte Localism
Ruralism
New partyX mark.svg [28]
[29]

In September 2021, citizen collectives of the so-called "Empty Spain" (Spanish : España Vacía or España Vaciada), a coined term to refer to Spain's rural and largely unpopulated interior provinces, [30] agreed to look forward for formulas to contest the next elections in Spain, inspired by the success of the Teruel Existe candidacy (Spanish for "Teruel Exists") in the November 2019 Spanish general election. [31] By December 2021, the platform was seeking to field candidacies in all three Aragonese provinces ahead of the next regional election. [32]

Campaign

Election debates

2023 Aragonese regional election debates
DateOrganisersModerator(s)   P Present [lower-alpha 1]  
PSOE PP CS–TA Podemos CHA Vox PAR IU Existe AudienceRef.
15 May Aragón TV Ana LaiglesiaP
Lambán
P
Azcón
P
Ortas
P
Díaz
P
Soro
P
Nolasco
P
Izquierdo
P
Sanz
P
Guitarte
10.6% [33]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

OpinionPollingAragonRegionalElection2023.svg
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Results

Overall

Summary of the 28 May 2023 Cortes of Aragon election results
AragonCortesDiagram2023.svg
Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeats
Votes %±pp Total+/−
People's Party (PP)237,81735.51+14.6428+12
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)197,91929.55–1.2923–1
Vox (Vox)75,34911.25+5.177+4
Aragonese Union (CHA)34,1635.10–1.163±0
Exists Coalition (Existe)33,1904.96New3+3
We CanGreen Alliance (Podemos–AV)26,9234.02–4.091–4
United Left of Aragon (IU)20,9593.13–0.191±0
Aragonese Party (PAR)13,9882.09–2.991–2
Citizens–You Aragon (CS–Tú Aragón)8,5951.28–15.390–12
Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)13,3430.50–0.180±0
Blank Seats to Leave Empty Seats (EB)2,8600.43+0.210±0
Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA)1,2480.19+0.070±0
Greens Equo (Equo)1,1560.17New0±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE)8780.13+0.050±0
Lower Cinca Between Everyone (ETXSBC)5410.08New0±0
Blank ballots10,8461.62+0.64
Total669,77567±0
Valid votes669,77598.77–0.56
Invalid votes8,3371.23+0.56
Votes cast / turnout678,11266.54+0.38
Abstentions340,93833.46–0.38
Registered voters1,019,050
Sources [12] [34]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
35.51%
PSOE
29.55%
Vox
11.25%
CHA
5.10%
Existe
4.96%
PodemosAV
4.02%
IU
3.13%
PAR
2.09%
CS–Tú Aragón
1.28%
Others
1.50%
Blank ballots
1.62%
Seats
PP
41.79%
PSOE
34.33%
Vox
10.45%
CHA
4.48%
Existe
4.48%
PodemosAV
1.49%
IU
1.49%
PAR
1.49%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSOE Vox CHA Existe Podemos IU PAR
 %S %S %S %S %S %S %S %S
Huesca 35.2830.1710.125.513.23.92.63.3
Teruel 31.1522.8410.512.020.731.92.26.51
Zaragoza 36.21530.51211.645.523.04.413.411.1
Total35.52829.62311.275.135.034.013.112.11
Sources [34]

Aftermath

Investiture
Jorge Azcón (PP)
Ballot →10 August 2023
Required majority →34 out of 67 Yes check.svg
Yes
36 / 67
No
31 / 67
Abstentions
0 / 67
Absentees
0 / 67
Sources [35]

Notes

  1. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Within Unidas Podemos.
  3. Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.

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References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "El PP sería el partido más votado, pero el Gobierno de Aragón dependería otra vez de pactos". CARTV (in Spanish). 28 May 2023.
  2. "Elecciones autonómicas: El PP arrebataría al PSOE la Comunidad Valenciana, Castilla-La Mancha y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 May 2023.
  3. "La España Vaciada decidirá el gobierno de Aragón entre la izquierda o la derecha". Público (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  4. "El PP de Azcón derrota al PSOE de Lambán pero deberá pactar con Vox y Aragón Existe para gobernar". OKDiario (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  5. "PP y Vox rozan la mayoría absoluta en Aragón y dejan a Lambán en manos de la España vaciada". El Debate (in Spanish). 19 May 2023.
  6. "Más que una encuesta: este partido será clave para decidir gobierno en Aragón". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  7. "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  8. "El PP ganaría las elecciones pero Aragón Existe sería clave para definir el Gobierno". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  9. "El PP se dispara en Aragón y puede echar a Lambán con apoyo de Vox". El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 May 2023.
  10. "[AUT] ARAGÓN. Encuesta SigmaDos 19/05/2023: PODEMOS 4,5% (2/5), IU 2,5% (1), CHA 6,2% (3), PSOE 32,7% (23/26), AE 3,1% (2/3), PAR 1,8%, CS 1,3%, PP 36,4% (26/28), VOX 9,7% (6/8)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 19 May 2023.
  11. "Lambán en peligro: la derecha lograría la mayoría absoluta si se mantiene la tendencia". El Español (in Spanish). 15 May 2023.
  12. "Todo depende de este partido político en Aragón si acierta el último estudio electoral". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  13. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  14. 1 2 "Empate técnico del PP y PSOE en Aragón: Teruel Existe decidirá el próximo Gobierno". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 9 May 2023.
  15. "En Aragón, este partido decidirá si gobierna el PP o el PSOE según el último estudio electoral". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  16. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  17. 1 2 "Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  18. "Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  19. "Aragón Existe / clave en un escenario muy apretado". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  20. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  21. "El PP alcanza a Lambán y Aragón Existe tendrá la llave del gobierno regional". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
  22. "PP y PSOE amplían su hegemonía y ambos tendrían opciones de gobernar con pactos". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
  23. "Aragón / Subida del PP ante un parlamento muy fragmentado en el que no podría gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  24. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  25. "Los populares, a siete escaños de la mayoría absoluta en Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 April 2023.
  26. "ElectoPanel Aragón / La izquierda y partidos regionalistas superan por mucho a la suma de PP y Vox". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  27. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  28. 1 2 "Azcón aventaja a Lambán en 4,5 puntos pero Aragón Existe decidiría con sus 6 diputados quién gobierna". El Español (in Spanish). 13 April 2023.
  29. "ElectoPanel Aragón / Aragón Existe decidirá el gobierno de la región". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  30. "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  31. "El PP de Azcón se dispara en Aragón pero un cuatripartito nuevo salvaría a Lambán". El Mundo (in Spanish). 7 April 2023.
  32. "[AUT] ARAGÓN. Encuesta SigmaDos 07/04/2023: PODEMOS 5,7% (3/4), IU 4,0% (1), CHA 5,2% (3), PSOE 31,2% (23/24), AE 4,6% (4/5), PAR 1,8%, CS 3,5% (1), PP 33,4% (25), VOX 9,3% (5/7)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 7 April 2023.
  33. "EP Aragón (31M): Populares y Socialistas empatan en escaños". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 March 2023.
  34. "El PP ganaría las elecciones en Aragón pero necesitaría el apoyo de Vox y el PAR para gobernar". El Debate (in Spanish). 23 January 2023.
  35. "EP Aragón (31Dic): Aragón Existe y el PAR, decisivos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 December 2022.
  36. 1 2 "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  37. "Estimación de escaños elecciones autonómicas (Estudio nº 3386. Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  38. "Lambán resiste pese al 'sorpasso' del PP y por la incompatibilidad de Vox con todos sus socios". El Mundo (in Spanish). 21 November 2022.
  39. "ARAGÓN. Encuesta SigmaDos 21/11/2022: PODEMOS 8,0% (5/6), IU 3,8% (1), CHA 8,1% (4/5), PSOE 28,5% (20/21), AE 4,4% (2/4), PAR 3,3% (2/3), Cs 1,8%, PP 29,6% (21/23), VOX 10,9% (7/8)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 21 November 2022.
  40. 1 2 "El PP arrebataría hoy Aragón a los socialistas: aventaja en 5 puntos a Lambán pese a no tener aún candidato". El Español (in Spanish). 12 October 2022.
  41. "Un empate técnico de PP y PSOE y la debacle de Cs permitirían a Lambán repetir el cuatripartito en Aragón". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 12 October 2022.
  42. "EP (Aragón 1Oct): bajada de Aragón Existe y del PSOE. Seguiría un gobierno multipartito". Electomanía (in Spanish). 1 October 2022.
  43. "ElectoPanel Aragón (15My): bajada del PSOE. Aragón Existe desciende ligeramente". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 May 2022.
  44. "El PP ganaría las elecciones, pero el Gobierno dependerá de pactos con múltiples partidos". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2022.
  45. "EP Aragón (30D): Aragón Existe lograría 7 diputados, alcanzando en escaños a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 December 2021.
  46. "EP Aragón (15Ag): empate PP-PSOE con UP y TEx marcando el próximo Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 August 2021.
  47. "El PSOE podría reeditar su cuatripartito en Aragón a pesar de que la debacle de Ciudadanos impulsa al PP". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2021.
  48. "ARAGÓN. Encuesta A+M 23/04/2021: IU 3,8% (1), PODEMOS-EQUO 5,9% (3), CHA 7,2% (5), PSOE 32,7% (25), PAR 4,4% (2), Cs 4,9% (3), PP 31,2% (23), VOX 7,5% (5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2021.
  49. "Estimación Marzo 2021. Aragón. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 10 March 2021.
  50. "ARAGÓN. Encuesta SyM Consulting 10/03/2021: IU 2,5% (1), PODEMOS-EQUO 6,9% (4), CHA 6,6% (4), PSOE 33,5% (26), PAR 5,4% (3/5), Cs 5,3% (2/4), PP 23,2% (16/17), VOX 12,8% (8/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 March 2021.
  51. "EP Autonómico (15Ag): Teruel Existe sería clave en Aragón, con los dos bloques muy igualados. Múltiple empate en Andalucía". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 August 2020.
  52. "Estimación Mayo 2020. Aragón. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 June 2020.
  53. "ARAGÓN. Encuesta SyM Consulting 03/06/2020: IU 2,0%, PODEMOS-EQUO 8,2% (4), CHA 5,7% (3/4), PSOE 28,8% (22/24), PAR 4,8% (3), Cs 7,2% (4), PP 25,4% (19/20), VOX 14,4% (9/11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 June 2020.
  54. "EP (17My): Aragón – Lambán sube, y el PP también". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  55. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  56. 1 2 "Un duelo en la cumbre para liderar Aragón". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 22 January 2023.
Other
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