2015 Aragonese regional election

Last updated

2015 Aragonese regional election
Flag of Aragon.svg
  2011 24 May 2015 2019  

All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon
34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,020,106 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.4%
Turnout676,654 (66.3%)
Red Arrow Down.svg 1.6 pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Luisa Fernanda Rudi 2011 (cropped).jpg Javier Lamban 2016 (cropped).jpg Pablo Echenique 2015c (cropped).jpg
Leader Luisa Fernanda Rudi Javier Lambán Pablo Echenique
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since8 November 200831 March 201214 February 2015
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election30 seats, 39.7%22 seats, 29.0%Did not contest
Seats won211814
Seat change Red Arrow Down.svg 9 Red Arrow Down.svg 4 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 14
Popular vote183,654143,096137,325
Percentage27.5%21.4%20.6%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg 12.2 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 7.6 pp New party

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Arturo Aliaga 2015 (cropped).jpg Susana Gaspar 2015b (cropped).jpg Jose Luis Soro 2015b (cropped).jpg
Leader Arturo Aliaga Susana Gaspar José Luis Soro
Party PAR C's CHA
Leader since29 November 201414 March 201510 February 2012
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election7 seats, 9.2%Did not contest4 seats, 8.2%
Seats won652
Seat change Red Arrow Down.svg 1 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 5 Red Arrow Down.svg 2
Popular vote45,84662,90730,618
Percentage6.9%9.4%4.6%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg 2.3 pp New party Red Arrow Down.svg 3.6 pp

AragonProvinceMapCortes2015.png
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon

President before election

Luisa Fernanda Rudi
PP

Elected President

Javier Lambán
PSOE

The 2015 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Contents

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. [1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). [2]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one). [1] [3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats: [4]

SeatsConstituencies
35 Zaragoza
18 Huesca
14 Teruel

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. [5]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 21 June 2015. [1] [3] [6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. [1]

The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 18 June. [4]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution. [7]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
People's Parliamentary Group PP 3030
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 2222
Aragonese Parliamentary Group PAR 77
Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group CHA 44
United Left of Aragon Parliamentary Group IU 44

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [3] [6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Votes (%)Seats
PP
List
Luisa Fernanda Rudi 2011 (cropped).jpg Luisa Fernanda Rudi Conservatism
Christian democracy
39.69%30Yes check.svg [8]
PSOE Javier Lamban 2016 (cropped).jpg Javier Lambán Social democracy 29.02%22X mark.svg [9]
PAR
List
Arturo Aliaga 2015 (cropped).jpg Arturo Aliaga Regionalism
Centrism
9.15%7Yes check.svg [10]
CHA
List
Jose Luis Soro 2015b (cropped).jpg José Luis Soro Aragonese nationalism
Eco-socialism
8.23%4X mark.svg [11]
IU Portrait placeholder.svg Patricia Luquin Socialism
Communism
6.16%4X mark.svg [12]
UPyD Portrait placeholder.svg José Luis Lajara Social liberalism
Radical centrism
2.31%0X mark.svg
Podemos
List
Pablo Echenique 2015c (cropped).jpg Pablo Echenique Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
New partyX mark.svg [13]
C's Susana Gaspar 2015b (cropped).jpg Susana Gaspar Liberalism New partyX mark.svg [14]

Campaign

Election debates

2015 Aragonese regional election debates
DateOrganisersModerator(s)   P Present [lower-alpha 1]   S Surrogate [lower-alpha 2]   NI Not invited 
PP PSOE PAR CHA IU UPyD Podemos AudienceRef.
11 May Aragón TV Pepe QuílezP
Rudi
P
Lambán
NININININI11.4%
(59,000)
[15]
[16]
15 May Aragón TV Pepe QuílezS
Bermúdez
S
Sada
P
Aliaga
P
Soro
P
Luquin
P
Lajara
P
Echenique
6.4%
(31,000)
[17]
[18]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls  Exit poll

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

Results

Overall

Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Aragon election results
AragonCortesDiagram2015.svg
Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeats
Votes %±pp Total+/−
People's Party (PP)183,65427.50–12.1921–9
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)143,09621.43–7.5918–4
We Can (Podemos)137,32520.56New14+14
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)62,9079.42New5+5
Aragonese Party (PAR)45,8466.86–2.296–1
Aragonese Union (CHA)30,6184.58–3.652–2
United Left of Aragon (IU)28,1844.22–1.941–3
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)5,7080.85–1.460±0
Blank Seats (EB)5,3230.80New0±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)4,9460.74+0.420±0
Commitment with Aragon (CCA)2,8440.43–0.120±0
Equo (Equo)1,2560.19New0±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)1,0820.16New0±0
Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA)6480.10–0.040±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)6160.09New0±0
Aragonese Bloc (BAR)5810.09New0±0
Blank ballots13,2241.98–1.21
Total667,85867±0
Valid votes667,85898.70+0.20
Invalid votes8,7961.30–0.20
Votes cast / turnout676,65466.33–1.57
Abstentions343,45233.67+1.57
Registered voters1,020,106
Sources [7] [19] [20]
Popular vote
PP
27.50%
PSOE
21.43%
Podemos
20.56%
C's
9.42%
PAR
6.86%
CHA
4.58%
IU
4.22%
Others
3.44%
Blank ballots
1.98%
Seats
PP
31.34%
PSOE
26.87%
Podemos
20.90%
PAR
8.96%
C's
7.46%
CHA
2.99%
IU
1.49%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSOE Podemos C's PAR CHA IU
 %S %S %S %S %S %S %S
Huesca 26.2526.4618.648.419.223.13.3
Teruel 27.5522.0416.127.2113.723.44.6
Zaragoza 27.81120.1821.7810.035.225.124.41
Total27.52121.41820.6149.456.964.624.21
Sources [7] [19] [20]

Aftermath

Investiture
Javier Lambán (PSOE)
Ballot →3 July 2015
Required majority →34 out of 67 Yes check.svg
Yes
35 / 67
No
32 / 67
Abstentions
0 / 67
Absentees
0 / 67
Sources [7]

Notes

  1. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  2. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  3. 1 2 Within PP.
  4. 1 2 Within IU.

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References

Opinion poll sources
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Other
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  10. "Arturo Aliaga es el candidato del PAR a la presidencia del Gobierno de Aragón tras la celebración de las primarias". Ronda Somontano (in Spanish). 30 November 2014. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  11. "José Luis Soro, elegido presidente de CHA con el 74,2% de los votos". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 11 February 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  12. "Patricia Luquin elegida candidata a la presidencia de la DGA por la militancia y los simpatizantes de IU Aragón". AraInfo (in Spanish). 2 February 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  13. "José Manuel López y Pablo Echenique serán los candidatos de Podemos en Madrid y Aragón". RTVE (in Spanish). 1 April 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  14. "Susana Gaspar será la candidata de Ciudadanos en Aragón". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 March 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  15. Tragacete, M. (12 May 2015). "Guerra de cifras en el cara a cara entre Lambán y Rudi". Heraldo de Aragón. Zaragoza. Retrieved 4 May 2023.
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