2012 Catalan regional election

2012 Catalan regional election

←  2010 25 November 2012 2015  →
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia 68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	5,413,868 0.9%
Turnout	3,668,310 (67.8%) 9.0 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Artur Mas Oriol Junqueras Pere Navarro Party CiU ERC–CatSí PSC–PSOE Leader since 7 January 2002 17 September 2011 17 December 2011 Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona Last election 62 seats, 38.4% 10 seats, 7.0% 28 seats, 18.4% Seats won 50 21 20 Seat change 12 11 8 Popular vote 1,116,259 498,124 524,707 Percentage 30.7% 13.7% 14.4% Swing 7.7 pp 6.7 pp 4.0 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Alicia Sánchez-Camacho Joan Herrera Albert Rivera Party PP ICV–EUiA C's Leader since 6 July 2008 23 November 2008 9 July 2006 Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona Last election 18 seats, 12.4% 10 seats, 7.4% 3 seats, 3.4% Seats won 19 13 9 Seat change 1 3 6 Popular vote 471,681 359,705 274,925 Percentage 13.0% 9.9% 7.6% Swing 0.6 pp 2.5 pp 4.2 pp   Seventh party   Leader David Fernàndez Party CUP Leader since 13 October 2012 Leader's seat Barcelona Last election Did not contest Seats won 3 Seat change 3 Popular vote 126,435 Percentage 3.5% Swing New party
Vote winner strength by constituency Election results by constituency
President before election Artur Mas CiU Elected President Artur Mas CiU

A regional election was held in Catalonia on Sunday, 25 November 2012, to elect the 10th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was a snap election, announced on 25 September by President Artur Mas following the pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona on 11 September—the National Day of Catalonia—and the failed talks between President Mas and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to give greater fiscal autonomy to Catalonia. ^{[1] [2]}

Despite Artur Mas campaigning to win an absolute majority of seats, Convergence and Union (CiU) suffered an electoral setback which had gone largely unnoticed by opinion polls. The Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) also fared poorly, obtaining fewer seats than pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and ending up as the third parliamentary force overall. In turn, ERC regained much of the strength it had loss in the 2010 election and became the main parliamentary opposition party for the first time. The People's Party (PP) and Citizens (C's) benefitted from the electoral polarization between the pro-independence and anti-independence blocs, scoring their best results until then, with 19 and 9 seats, respectively. The Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) also entered the Parliament for the first time. ^[3]

Background

In the 2010 election, Convergence and Union (CiU) was returned to power after 7 years in opposition, as a result of the electoral collapse of all three parties comprising the "Catalan tripartite" government (Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV). Newly-elected Catalan president Artur Mas was able to govern comfortably thanks to his party's large parliamentary representation allowing for punctual support of several parties on different issues, in what was known as a policy of "variable geometry". ^{[4] [5]} In 2011, CiU signed several agreements with the People's Party (PP) in order to pass the 2011 and 2012 budgets, as well as for the approval of several spending cuts. In spite of this, the relationship between both parties quickly deteriorated after the 2011 general election, as a result of Mas asking new Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy for greater fiscal autonomy for Catalonia. ^{[6] [7]}

On 11 September 2012, a massive pro-independence demonstration marked the Catalan political agenda and re-opened the debate about the right to hold a referendum on the independence of Catalonia, ^{[8] [9] [10]} as well as the debate about the feasibility of an independent Catalan state and its integration into the European Union. On 25 September 2012, President Artur Mas announced a snap regional election to be held on 25 November and argued, referring to the demonstration, that "this election will not be held to help a party to perpetuate itself in power. It will be held so that the whole of the Catalan population decides democratically and peacefully what will their future be as a nation." ^[11] President Mas signed the decree to officially call the Catalan election on 1 October. ^[12] Mas' move was criticized as an attempt to try to funnel the popular support for independence seen in the September demonstration into an absolute majority of seats in the election. ^[13]

Overview

Under the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Catalonia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[14] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under transitory provisions, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. ^{[15] [a]}

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated. ^{[15] [17] [18]} Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 introduced a requirement for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). ^{[19] [20]}

The Parliament of Catalonia was entitled to a minimum of 100 and a maximum of 150 seats, with electoral provisions setting its size at 135. All members were elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. ^{[15] [17] [21]} The use of the electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. ^[22]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats: ^{[15] [23]}

Seats	Constituencies
85	Barcelona
18	Tarragona
17	Girona
15	Lleida

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes. ^[24]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. ^{[15] [17] [25]} The previous election was held on 28 November 2010, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 28 November 2014. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGC no later than 4 November 2014, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 28 December 2014.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. ^[26] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[27]

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 2 October 2012 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGC, setting election day for 25 November. ^[23]

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution. ^{[28] [29] [30] [31]}

Parliamentary composition in October 2012

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Convergence and Union's Parliamentary Group		CDC	45	62
			UDC	17
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSC	28	28
	People's Party of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		PP	18	18
	Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left's Parliamentary Group		ICV	8	10
			EUiA	2
	Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		ERC	10	10
	Mixed Group		SI	3	6
			Cs	3
	Non-Inscrits		DCat	1 [b]	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or alliances that had not obtained a parliamentary mandate at the preceding election were required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies. ^[33] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition. ^[34]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	CiU	List Convergence and Union (CiU) – Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) – Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC)		Artur Mas	Catalan nationalism Centrism	38.4%	62		[35] [36]
	PSC–PSOE	List Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE)		Pere Navarro	Social democracy	18.4%	28		[37] [38]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Alicia Sánchez-Camacho	Conservatism Christian democracy	12.4%	18		[39] [40]
	ICV–EUiA	List Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) United and Alternative Left (EUiA) – Party of the Communists of Catalonia (PCC) – Living Unified Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSUC viu) – Revolutionary Workers' Party (POR)		Joan Herrera	Regionalism Eco-socialism Green politics	7.4%	10		[41] [42]
	ERC–CatSí	List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) Catalonia Yes (CatSí)		Oriol Junqueras	Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy	7.0%	10		[43] [44] [45] [46]
	SI	List Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI)		Alfons López Tena	Catalan independence	3.3%	4		[47] [48]
	C's	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)		Albert Rivera	Social liberalism	3.4%	3		[49] [50]
	CUP	List Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP)		David Fernàndez	Catalan independence Anti-capitalism Socialism	Did not contest			[51]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 November 2010 to 25 November 2012, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							SI	PxC		Lead
2012 regional election	25 Nov 2012	—	67.8	30.7 50	14.4 20	13.0 19	9.9 13	13.7 21	7.6 9	1.3 0	1.7 0	3.5 3	16.3
Ipsos–Eco/CCMA [p 1] [p 2]	25 Nov 2012	31,242	?	34.0 54/57	12.6 16/18	12.0 16/18	9.0 10/12	14.2 20/23	5.9 6/7	–	–	4.7 5/6	19.8
Sigma Dos/The Guardian [p 3]	22 Nov 2012	?	?	? 57/59	? 21/22	? 21/22	–	? 16	–	–	–	–	?
Infortécnica [p 4]	18 Nov 2012	1,450	?	? 60/64	? 16/19	? 18/21	? 11/13	? 12/16	? 8/11	? 0/3	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón [p 5] [p 6]	18 Nov 2012	?	59.0	38.1 60/62	14.0 20/21	14.3 19/20	8.8 12	10.5 15	5.8 6/7	–	–	2.9 0/2	24.0
crónica.cat [p 7]	14–16 Nov 2012	1,000	?	? 63/64	? 18/19	? 16/17	? 12	? 14/15	? 5	? 5	–	–	?
GESOP/El Periódico [p 8]	13–16 Nov 2012	800	?	38.0 62/64	12.0 15/17	11.6 15/17	9.8 13/14	12.8 19/20	6.0 6/7	2.5 0/1	–	2.8 0/1	25.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 9]	13–16 Nov 2012	1,150	?	36.6 60/63	15.3 21/23	13.8 20/21	8.1 10/12	9.5 14	4.5 5	2.8 0/2	–	–	21.3
DYM/ABC [p 10]	12–16 Nov 2012	847	?	39.6 60/62	13.2 17	14.0 18	8.3 9/10	12.5 18	4.4 6	–	–	4.8 4/7	25.6
Feedback/La Vanguardia [p 11]	12–16 Nov 2012	1,000	58.8	38.2 62/64	13.3 17/19	12.1 16/18	11.0 13/16	10.4 14/15	7.2 7/8	1.4 0	–	2.4 0/2	24.9
Metroscopia/El País [p 12] [p 13]	8–15 Nov 2012	2,500	?	37.3 62	12.3 18	13.2 19	7.9 10	12.2 18	5.7 6	–	–	3.0 2	24.1
MyWord/Cadena SER [p 14] [p 15]	9–14 Nov 2012	1,153	?	36.8 62/65	10.6 16/17	10.9 16/17	9.2 12/13	11.4 16/17	6.5 8	2.9 0	–	2.6 2	25.4
Feedback/La Vanguardia [p 16]	6–9 Nov 2012	1,000	61.3	40.0 64/66	12.0 16/18	12.3 17/18	10.2 12/13	10.9 15/17	7.0 7/8	1.7 0	–	–	27.7
Feedback/RAC 1 [p 17]	30 Oct–2 Nov 2012	900	61.0	39.7 64/65	13.1 18	12.7 17/19	10.7 14	10.1 14/15	5.4 6/7	2.1 0	1.7 0	1.9 0	26.6
crónica.cat [p 18]	29 Oct–2 Nov 2012	1,000	?	? 66	? 17	? 18	? 12/13	? 14/15	? 3	? 4/5	–	–	?
GESOP/Tele 5 [p 19]	29 Oct–1 Nov 2012	2,000	?	39.0– 40.0 63/65	12.5– 13.5 18/20	11.5– 12.5 17/18	8.5– 9.5 11/12	10.5– 11.5 17/18	5.0– 6.0 5/7	–	–	2.0– 3.0 0/1	26.5
DYM/CEO [p 20]	22–30 Oct 2012	2,500	65.0	43.4 69/71	12.0 15	12.5 18/19	8.0 10	9.5 14	5.1 6	2.0 0	–	2.8 0/3	30.9
CIS [p 21] [p 22]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	?	36.8 63/64	12.9 19	11.0 16/17	8.1 11	11.1 17	6.0 7	2.1 1	0.5 0	1.6 0	23.9
GAPS/Ara [p 23]	25–26 Oct 2012	809	?	39.0 64/66	13.3 19/21	12.9 19/20	8.0 9/12	11.2 16/18	5.0 5/6	1.8 0	–	1.5 0	25.7
Feedback/La Vanguardia [p 24]	22–26 Oct 2012	1,000	?	40.9 65/66	13.4 18	11.4 17	10.1 12/13	10.6 16	5.6 6	1.8 0	–	–	27.5
GESOP/El Periódico [p 25] [p 26]	18–22 Oct 2012	800	?	39.1 64/65	14.0 20/21	11.5 15/16	9.4 13/14	10.2 15/16	5.0 5/6	2.5 0	–	2.4 0	25.1
Feedback/RAC 1 [p 27]	15–19 Oct 2012	900	60.0	40.7 67	15.0 21	12.2 17	9.6 12	9.7 14	4.2 4	2.2 0	1.9 0	1.1 0	25.7
Feedback/La Vanguardia [p 28]	8–11 Oct 2012	1,000	?	43.2 68/69	15.2 20/21	12.0 17/18	8.6 10/11	9.3 13	3.1 3	2.6 0/2	? 0/2	–	28.0
NC Report/La Razón [p 29]	29 Sep 2012	850	59.8	36.7 58/59	17.1 24/25	13.7 20	9.1 12	9.3 14	3.6 3	–	3.3 3	–	19.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 30]	26–28 Sep 2012	1,225	?	39.2 64/65	16.9 24/25	12.8 18/20	8.5 11	8.2 12	3.3 3	3.0 0/2	–	–	22.3
GESOP/El Periódico [p 31]	26–27 Sep 2012	800	?	41.0 64/65	14.5 20/21	9.9 12/13	7.7 10	11.3 17/18	5.0 5	4.5 5/6	–	–	28.0
Feedback/La Vanguardia [p 32]	21–27 Sep 2012	1,200	?	43.0 66/67	15.7 21	11.8 15/16	9.6 12	10.1 13	3.6 4	3.3 3	–	–	27.3
GESOP/Tele 5 [p 33] [p 34]	15 Sep 2012	2,000	?	? 58/60	? 23/25	? 15/16	? 12/13	? 17/19	? 3/4	? 4/5	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón [p 35]	12–15 Sep 2012	750	60.1	38.0 58/62	15.8 22/25	13.5 20	8.9 11	9.8 15	3.8 4	–	3.4 3	–	22.2
Tàstic/Ara [p 36] [p 37]	23 Jul 2012	?	?	34.5 55/57	16.6 26/28	11.2 16/17	9.7 11/13	9.9 15/16	3.4 0/3	3.7 0/4	–	–	17.9
DYM/CEO [p 38]	4–18 Jun 2012	2,500	57.4	36.2 60	16.4 24/25	10.5 15/16	9.5 12/13	9.7 15/16	3.7 3/4	3.5 0/4	–	–	19.8
CDC [p 39]	14 Jun 2012	?	55	? 52/54	? 28/30	? 15	? 13/14	? 17	? 0/3	? 0/3	–	–	?
Feedback/La Vanguardia [p 40]	30 May–7 Jun 2012	1,200	?	37.9 58/60	17.7 26/28	11.8 16	9.9 13	9.3 15	3.2 3	3.3 1/3	–	–	20.2
GESOP/El Periódico [p 41] [p 42]	7–9 May 2012	800	?	33.9 56/57	18.4 28/29	10.2 13/14	9.7 13	10.6 17/18	4.5 5	2.4 0	–	–	15.5
DYM/CEO [p 43]	6–21 Feb 2012	2,500	?	37.0 62/63	16.5 25/26	11.7 18/19	8.1 10/11	9.6 14/15	4.0 3/4	2.4 0	–	–	20.5
GESOP/El Periódico [p 44] [p 45]	16–19 Jan 2012	800	?	35.2 62/63	16.9 27/28	10.5 14/15	8.6 12/13	9.0 13/14	3.8 4	2.3 0	–	–	18.3
Feedback/La Vanguardia [p 46]	22–28 Dec 2011	1,200	?	38.5 61/62	16.9 25	12.2 19	10.0 13/14	9.8 15	2.1 0/2	1.5 0	–	–	21.6
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	65.2	29.3 (46)	26.7 (38)	20.7 (31)	8.1 (10)	7.1 (10)	–	–	1.7 (0)	–	2.6
GESOP/El Periódico [p 47]	19–21 Jun 2011	800	?	36.7 62/63	17.5 27/28	13.0 19/20	8.3 11/12	6.5 8/9	3.0 3	2.9 0/2	2.4 0	2.5 0/2	19.2
GESOP/CEO [p 48] [p 49]	2–17 Jun 2011	2,500	60.6	41.4 68/69	19.0 29	10.2 14/15	8.9 13	5.8 8	2.3 2	2.3 0	1.5 0	1.2 0	22.4
2011 local elections	22 May 2011	—	55.0	27.2	25.1	12.7	8.4	9.0	1.2	1.1	2.3	2.2	2.1
GESOP/CEO [p 50] [p 51]	17–27 Jan 2011	2,500	60.4	44.4 71	16.8 24/25	9.6 14/15	8.0 11	6.9 11	2.6 2	2.3 1	–	–	27.6
2010 regional election	28 Nov 2010	—	58.8	38.4 62	18.4 28	12.4 18	7.4 10	7.0 10	3.4 3	3.3 4	2.4 0	–	20.0

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							SI	PxC		?	N	Lead
2012 regional election	25 Nov 2012	—	21.2	10.0	9.0	6.8	9.4	5.2	0.9	1.1	2.4	—	30.4	11.2
Infortécnica [p 4]	18 Nov 2012	1,450	24.2	9.0	5.4	5.8	8.2	3.4	1.0	–	–	28.5	13.4	15.2
GESOP/El Periódico [p 52]	13–16 Nov 2012	800	29.5	8.0	6.3	6.4	12.6	4.4	1.4	0.1	1.5	20.4	4.4	16.9
MyWord/Cadena SER [p 15]	9–14 Nov 2012	1,153	21.3	4.7	4.1	8.8	11.6	5.2	2.3	–	2.2	27.6	5.1	9.7
Feedback/RAC 1 [p 17]	30 Oct–2 Nov 2012	900	29.5	8.4	5.2	9.5	11.2	4.7	1.9	0.5	2.2	10.6	8.3	18.3
DYM/CEO [p 20]	22–30 Oct 2012	2,500	28.3	5.0	1.8	5.0	8.9	1.2	1.0	–	–	40.3	4.2	19.4
CIS [p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	27.0	10.0	5.7	6.4	9.0	3.5	1.2	0.3	0.9	18.5	10.9	17.0
GESOP/El Periódico [p 26]	18–22 Oct 2012	800	32.0	7.9	7.1	7.4	9.6	3.9	1.5	–	1.4	16.9	6.1	22.4
Feedback/RAC 1 [p 27]	15–19 Oct 2012	900	32.7	8.9	4.6	8.4	10.3	3.2	1.9	0.3	1.1	13.8	7.6	22.4
GESOP/El Periódico [p 53]	26–27 Sep 2012	800	28.9	6.5	3.8	3.9	8.8	2.3	1.8	0.1	–	32.0	6.1	20.1
DYM/CEO [p 38]	4–18 Jun 2012	2,500	25.7	10.1	2.2	9.0	7.7	0.7	1.4	–	–	22.9	11.6	15.6
GESOP/El Periódico [p 54]	7–9 May 2012	800	24.3	13.8	3.8	6.8	10.4	1.9	0.5	0.1	–	19.1	9.4	10.5
DYM/CEO [p 43]	6–21 Feb 2012	2,500	30.4	11.0	3.3	8.1	8.0	1.1	1.1	–	–	20.6	8.8	19.4
GESOP/El Periódico [p 45]	16–19 Jan 2012	800	27.0	11.6	4.9	6.4	8.8	1.6	0.9	–	–	16.3	10.6	15.4
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	19.3	17.5	13.6	5.3	4.7	–	–	1.1	–	—	33.2	1.8
GESOP/ICPS [p 55]	19 Sep–27 Oct 2011	2,000	29.8	13.4	5.9	5.0	8.6	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.4	14.3	13.6	16.4
GESOP/El Periódico [p 47]	19–21 Jun 2011	800	28.0	11.3	5.8	6.5	5.1	1.4	2.0	0.5	1.4	15.8	8.8	16.7
GESOP/CEO [p 48]	2–17 Jun 2011	2,500	32.1	12.9	4.6	7.5	4.4	1.4	1.7	–	–	15.4	8.4	19.2
GESOP/CEO [p 50]	17–27 Jan 2011	2,500	34.5	11.5	4.1	7.2	5.7	1.4	1.8	–	–	16.3	7.7	23.0
2010 regional election	28 Nov 2010	—	22.9	10.9	7.3	4.4	4.2	2.0	2.0	1.4	–	—	40.1	12.0

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							SI	PxC	Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS [p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	30.8	13.4	7.0	7.9	10.4	3.6	1.2	0.4	3.2	22.1	17.4

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							SI	Other/ None	?	Lead
Metroscopia/El País [p 13]	8–15 Nov 2012	2,500	75.0	2.0	2.0	–	0.0	0.0	–	0.0	21.0	73.0
DYM/CEO [p 20]	22–30 Oct 2012	2,500	78.3	1.3	1.1	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	18.5	77.0
CIS [p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	77.3	3.6	2.7	0.1	1.4	0.1	0.1	0.1	14.6	73.7

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Mas CiU	Navarro PSC	Camacho PP	Herrera ICV–EUiA	Junqueras ERC	Rivera C's	De Tena SI
GESOP/El Periódico [p 52]	13–16 Nov 2012	800	38.9	5.5	6.6	7.4	11.1	5.8	2.1	12.4	10.2	27.8
CIS [p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	37.2	6.6	6.1	7.1	6.4	2.9	0.8	9.3	23.6	30.1
GESOP/El Periódico [p 26]	18–22 Oct 2012	800	41.4	6.4	6.1	7.9	7.3	4.8	1.6	16.6	8.1	33.5

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered voter turnout on election day, without including non-resident citizens.

Province	Time
	13:00			18:00			20:00
	2010	2012	+/–	2010	2012	+/–	2010	2012	+/–
Barcelona	24.74%	29.41%	+4.67	48.47%	56.58%	+8.11	60.05%	69.89%	+9.84
Girona	26.62%	32.71%	+6.09	50.38%	59.44%	+9.06	60.49%	70.77%	+10.28
Lleida	23.40%	26.45%	+3.05	48.30%	53.45%	+5.15	61.78%	69.29%	+7.51
Tarragona	24.24%	28.24%	+4.00	46.07%	52.96%	+6.89	57.68%	66.39%	+8.71
Total	24.79%	29.43%	+4.64	48.39%	56.30%	+7.91	59.95%	69.57%	+9.62
Sources [52]

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 November 2012 Parliament of Catalonia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Convergence and Union (CiU)	1,116,259	30.71	−7.72	50	−12
	Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE)	524,707	14.43	−3.95	20	−8
	Republican Left of Catalonia–Catalonia Yes (ERC–CatSí)	498,124	13.70	+6.70	21	+11
	People's Party (PP)	471,681	12.98	+0.61	19	+1
	Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV–EUiA)	359,705	9.90	+2.53	13	+3
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	275,007	7.57	+4.18	9	+6
	Popular Unity Candidacy–Left Alternative (CUP)	126,435	3.48	New	3	+3
	Platform for Catalonia (PxC)	60,107	1.65	−0.75	0	±0
	Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI)	46,838	1.29	−2.00	0	−4
	Blank Seats (EB)	28,288	0.78	+0.18	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	20,861	0.57	+0.12	0	±0
	Pirates of Catalonia (Pirata.cat)	18,219	0.50	+0.29	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	14,614	0.40	+0.23	0	±0
	Hartos.org (Hartos.org)	11,702	0.32	New	0	±0
	Democratic Way (VD)	5,984	0.16	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	2,582	0.07	+0.04	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	826	0.02	−0.03	0	±0
	Socialists and Republicans (SyR)	333	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		52,898	1.46	−1.47
Total		3,635,170			135	±0
Valid votes		3,635,170	99.10	−0.19
Invalid votes		33,140	0.90	+0.19
Votes cast / turnout		3,668,310	67.76	+8.98
Abstentions		1,745,558	32.24	−8.98
Registered voters		5,413,868
Sources [28] [52] [53] [54]

Popular vote

CiU			30.71%
PSC–PSOE			14.43%
ERC–CatSí			13.70%
PP			12.98%
ICV–EUiA			9.90%
C's			7.57%
CUP			3.48%
PxC			1.65%
SI			1.29%
Others			2.84%
Blank ballots			1.46%

Seats

CiU			37.04%
ERC–CatSí			15.56%
PSC–PSOE			14.81%
PP			14.07%
ICV–EUiA			9.63%
C's			6.67%
CUP			2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	CiU		PSC		ERC		PP		ICV–EUiA		C's		CUP
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Barcelona	28.1	26	15.4	14	12.7	12	13.3	12	11.1	10	8.4	8	3.4	3
Girona	43.0	9	10.1	2	17.8	3	9.6	2	5.9	1	3.6	−	4.2	−
Lleida	43.1	8	10.4	1	17.4	3	11.3	2	5.4	1	3.3	−	3.0	−
Tarragona	31.7	7	13.6	3	15.1	3	15.0	3	6.9	1	7.3	1	3.6	−
Total	30.7	50	14.4	20	13.7	21	13.0	19	9.9	13	7.6	9	3.5	3
Sources [28] [52] [53]

Aftermath

Investiture Artur Mas (CiU)
Ballot →		21 December 2012
Required majority →		68 out of 135 Y
	Yes • CiU (50) • ERC (21)	71 / 135
	No • PSC (20) • PP (18) • ICV–EUiA (13) • C's (9) • CUP (3)	63 / 135
	Abstentions	0 / 135
	Absentees • PP (1)	1 / 135
Sources [28]

Notes

1. Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved. ^[16]
2. Joan Laporta, former SI legislator. ^[32]

References

Opinion poll sources

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2. "Spanish exit polls: Sampling error or nonresponse bias?" (PDF). Revista Internacional de Sociología. 23 August 2016.
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4. "CiU no aconsegueix la majoria absoluta i el PSC podria ser atrapat per ERC ı PP". Segre (in Catalan). 18 November 2012.
5. "Castigo a Mas en las urnas". La Razón (in Spanish). 19 November 2012. Archived from the original on 20 November 2012. Retrieved 22 November 2012.
6. "PP y PSC compiten por la segunda plaza (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 19 November 2012. Archived from the original on 16 March 2015.
7. "ENQUESTA: CiU, ERC i SI creixen i podran declarar la independència al Parlament si Espanya impedeix el referèndum". crónica.cat (in Catalan). 17 November 2012. Archived from the original on 19 November 2012.
8. "La mayoría de CiU sigue sin ser absoluta y ERC supera al PSC". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
9. "CiU, lejos de la mayoría absoluta". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
10. "CiU fracasa en su lucha por la mayoría absoluta y PP logra la segunda posición". ABC (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
11. "CiU no alcanza la mayoría absoluta por el ascenso de ERC, ICV y CUP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
12. Garea, Fernando (17 November 2012). "CiU, lejos de la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish).
13. "Estimación de voto en Cataluña para las elecciones del 25N". El País (in Spanish). 17 November 2012.
14. "CiU se quedará lejos de la mayoría absoluta que reclama Artur Mas para su plan independentista". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 19 November 2012.
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17. "El Racòmetre, 5 de novembre de 2012" (PDF). RAC1 (in Catalan). 5 November 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 February 2013.
18. "ENQUESTA: majoria absoluta sobiranista, mentre CiU no assoleix la majoria absoluta". crónica.cat (in Catalan). 11 November 2012. Archived from the original on 14 November 2012.
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23. "Enquesta GAPS per a l'ARA: CiU se situa a les portes de la majoria absoluta". Ara (in Catalan). 2 November 2012.
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26. "Voto estimado a partir del sondeo" (PDF). El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 25 October 2012.
27. "El Racòmetre, 23 d'octubre de 2012" (PDF). RAC1 (in Catalan). 23 October 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 March 2013. Retrieved 22 November 2012.
28. "CiU acaricia la mayoría absoluta mientras el PP recupera posiciones". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 October 2012.
29. "CiU sufre el "efecto Mas"". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 September 2012. Archived from the original on 1 October 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2021.
30. "CiU no alcanza la mayoría absoluta". El Mundo (in Spanish). 30 September 2012.
31. "Marea soberanista sin mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 1 October 2012.
32. "CiU roza la mayoría absoluta mientras el PSC se hunde y el PP baja levemente". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 30 September 2012.
33. "Una enquesta de Telecinco indica que un 51% de catalans diria 'sí' a la independència i només un 18,6% triaria el 'no'". Ara (in Catalan). 15 September 2012.
34. "CiU perdería 4 escaños mientras ERC subiría con fuerza". eldebat.cat (in Spanish). 16 September 2012.
35. "El "efecto Mas": CiU y PSC bajan y ERC y PP suben". La Razón (in Spanish). 16 September 2012. Archived from the original on 18 September 2012. Retrieved 22 November 2012.
36. "CiU fa evident el seu desgast però l'alternativa segueix òrfena". Ara (in Catalan). 23 July 2012.
37. "CiU fa evident el seu desgast però l'alternativa segueix òrfena". Ara (in Catalan). 23 July 2012.
38. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 27. 2a onada 2012" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 27 June 2012.
39. "Gran davallada electoral de CiU". eldebat.cat (in Catalan). 14 June 2012. Archived from the original on 17 June 2012.
40. "CiU resiste mientras el PP retrocede y los socialistas se estancan a la baja". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 10 June 2012.
41. "Los recortes y las alianzas con el PPC erosionan la pujanza de CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 13 May 2012.
42. "Voto estimado a partir del sondeo" (PDF). El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 13 May 2012.
43. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 26. 1a onada 2012" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 2 March 2012.
44. "Catalunya mantiene la confianza en Mas para salir de la crisis". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 27 January 2012.
45. "Voto estimado a partir del sondeo" (PDF). El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 27 January 2012.
46. "CiU sale indemne de los recortes y mantiene intacto su apoyo electoral". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2 January 2012.
47. "Catalunya mantiene la confianza en Mas para salir de la crisis". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 27 June 2011.
48. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 24. 2a onada 2011" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 29 June 2011.
49. "Proyección electoral. Barómetro de junio de 2011" (PDF). Feedback (in Spanish). 30 June 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 July 2011.
50. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 23. 1a onada 2011" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 25 February 2011.
51. "Proyección electoral. Barómetro de febrero de 2011" (PDF). Feedback (in Spanish). 26 February 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 July 2011.
52. "Enquesta preelectoral a Catalunya. Novembre de 2012" (PDF). GESOP (in Catalan). 18 November 2012.
53. "Enquesta preelectoral a Catalunya. Setembre de 2012" (PDF). GESOP (in Catalan). 2 October 2012.
54. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política a Catalunya. Maig de 2012" (PDF). GESOP (in Catalan). 13 May 2012.
55. "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2011" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 27 October 2011.

Other

1. "Mas adelanta elecciones al 25-N "para abrir una nueva etapa"". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 25 September 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
2. "Spain's Catalonia region to hold early elections on Nov 25". Reuters. 25 September 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
3. "Elecciones catalanas 2012: Batacazo de Artur Mas al perder CiU 12 diputados y quedarse muy lejos de la absoluta". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 26 November 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
4. "PSC, PP y ERC critican la geometría variable de un Mas que defiende los "grandes consensos"". El Economista (in Spanish). 6 July 2011. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
5. "Sánchez-Camacho, a Mas: 'La geometría variable no siempre le saldrá bien'". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 January 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
6. "Mas y Sánchez-Camacho sellan el pacto CiU-PP para los presupuestos". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 11 June 2011. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
7. "CiU y PP vuelven a aliarse para mantener los recortes sanitarios". El País (in Spanish). 20 October 2011. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
8. "Los partidos catalanes valoran la manifestación independentista". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 September 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
9. "El independentismo marca la agenda política en un otoño crítico para el Estado español". Gara (in Spanish). 23 September 2012. Archived from the original on 23 September 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
10. "CiU, ICV-EUiA, ERC y SI negocian una resolución por la autodeterminación". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 24 September 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
11. "Mas pone rumbo a la autodeterminación". El País (in Spanish). 24 September 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
12. "Mas: "Ningú no pot utilitzar les armes contra la voluntat d'un poble"". Nació Digital (in Catalan). 1 October 2012. Retrieved 1 October 2012.
13. "Elecciones catalanas: Mas pide una mayoría absoluta como la del SNP escocés para la consulta". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 19 November 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
14. Statute (2006) , art. 55.
15. Statute (1979) , tran. prov. 4.
16. Statute (2006), tran. prov. 2.
17. Statute (2006) , art. 56.
18. LOREG (1985) , arts. 2–3.
19. LOREG (1985) , art. 75.
20. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Archived from the original on 31 August 2021. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
21. LOREG (1985) , arts. 162–164.
22. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Dublin: Trinity College Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
23. Decreto 104/2012, de 1 de octubre, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Cataluña y de su disolución (PDF) (Decree 104/2012). Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (in Spanish). 1 October 2012. Retrieved 9 November 2025.
24. LOREG (1985) , arts. 46 & 48.
25. LOREG (1985) , art. 42.
26. Statute (2006) , art. 75.
27. Statute (2006) , art. 67.
28. Lozano, Carles. "Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya (des de 1980)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 November 2025.
29. Lozano, Carles. "Parlament de Catalunya: grups parlamentaris (1980 – ...)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 November 2025.
30. Lozano, Carles. "Diputats del Parlament de Catalunya (des de 1932)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 November 2025.
31. "IX legislatura". Parliament of Catalonia (in Catalan). Retrieved 9 November 2025.
32. "Laporta deja el subgrupo de SI en el Parlament y será diputado no adscrito" (in Spanish). Europa Press. 9 March 2011. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
33. LOREG (1985) , arts. 44 & 169.
34. LOREG (1985) , art. 44 bis.
35. "Arranca el congreso de CDC que encumbrará a Oriol Pujol y que busca la "plena soberanía"". 20 minutos (in Spanish). Tarragona. Europa Press. 14 October 2012. Retrieved 14 November 2025.
36. Masreal, Fidel (14 October 2012). "Mas: "La consulta se hará en los próximos cuatro años"". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Barcelona. Retrieved 14 November 2025.
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42. "ICV proclama a Joan Herrera candidato a la Generalitat catalana" (in Spanish). RTVE. 13 October 2012. Retrieved 14 November 2025.
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47. "Laporta rompe la coalición que lidera y negocia ir en las listas municipales de ERC". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). Barcelona. EFE. 3 March 2011. Retrieved 14 November 2025.
48. "SI proclama candidato a Tena, que aspira a una Cataluña sin "oligarquía española"". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Barcelona. Europa Press. 14 October 2012. Retrieved 14 November 2025.
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51. Roger, Maiol (13 October 2012). "La CUP decide presentarse a las elecciones al Parlament". El País (in Spanish). Barcelona. Retrieved 14 November 2025.
52. "Resultats electorals. Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya 2012. Catalunya". Government of Catalonia (in Catalan). Retrieved 15 November 2025.
53. "Resolución de 10 de enero de 2013, de la presidencia de la Junta Electoral Central, por la que se ordena la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones al Parlamento de Cataluña convocadas por el Decreto del presidente de la Generalidad de Cataluña 104/2012, de 1 de octubre, y celebradas el 25 de noviembre de 2012, conforme a las actas de escrutinio general y de proclamación de electos remitidas por las juntas electorales provinciales de la Comunidad Autónoma de Cataluña" (PDF). Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (in Spanish) (6307): 6191–6195. 4 February 2013. ISSN   1988-298X . Retrieved 15 November 2025.
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