2012 Catalan regional election

Last updated

2012 Catalan regional election
Flag of Catalonia.svg
  2010 25 November 2012 2015  

All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,413,868 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.9%
Turnout3,668,310 (67.8%)
Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 9.0 pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Artur Mas 2012 (cropped).jpg Oriol Junqueras 2012 (cropped).jpg Pere Navarro 2012b (cropped).jpg
Leader Artur Mas Oriol Junqueras Pere Navarro
Party CiU ERC–CatSí PSC–PSOE
Leader since7 January 200217 September 201117 December 2011
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election62 seats, 38.4%10 seats, 7.0%28 seats, 18.4%
Seats won502120
Seat change Red Arrow Down.svg 12 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 11 Red Arrow Down.svg 8
Popular vote1,116,259498,124524,707
Percentage30.7%13.7%14.4%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg 7.7 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 6.7 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 4.0 pp

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Alicia Sanchez-Camacho (cropped).jpg Joan Herrera 2010 (cropped).jpg Albert Rivera 2012 (cropped).jpg
Leader Alicia Sánchez-Camacho Joan Herrera Albert Rivera
Party PP ICV–EUiA C's
Leader since6 July 200823 November 20089 July 2006
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election18 seats, 12.4%10 seats, 7.4%3 seats, 3.4%
Seats won19139
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 1 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 3 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 6
Popular vote471,681359,705274,925
Percentage13.0%9.9%7.6%
Swing Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.6 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 2.5 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 4.2 pp

 Seventh party
  David Fernandez 2012 (cropped).jpg
Leader David Fernàndez
Party CUP
Leader since13 October 2012
Leader's seat Barcelona
Last electionDid not contest
Seats won3
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 3
Popular vote126,435
Percentage3.5%
SwingNew party

CataloniaProvinceMapParliament2012.png
2012 Catalan regional parliamentary election.svg

President before election

Artur Mas
CiU

Elected President

Artur Mas
CiU

The 2012 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 25 November 2012, to elect the 10th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was a snap election, announced on 25 September by President Artur Mas following the pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona on 11 September—the National Day of Catalonia—and the failed talks between President Mas and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to give greater fiscal autonomy to Catalonia. [1] [2]

Contents

Despite Artur Mas campaigning to win an absolute majority of seats, Convergence and Union (CiU) suffered an electoral setback which had gone largely unnoticed by opinion polls. The Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) also fared poorly, obtaining fewer seats than pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and ending up as the third parliamentary force overall. In turn, ERC regained much of the strength it had loss in the 2010 election and became the main parliamentary opposition party for the first time. The People's Party (PP) and Citizens (C's) benefitted from the electoral polarization between the pro-independence and anti-independence blocs, scoring their best results until then, with 19 and 9 seats, respectively. The Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) also entered the Parliament for the first time. [3]

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. [4] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. [lower-alpha 1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Catalans abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). [5]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats: [4] [6]

SeatsConstituencies
85 Barcelona
18 Tarragona
17 Girona
15 Lleida

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude. [7]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 28 November 2010, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 28 November 2014. The election was required to be called no later than 13 November 2014, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 12 January 2015. [4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. [4]

Background

In the 2010 election, Convergence and Union (CiU) was returned to power after 7 years in opposition, as a result of the electoral collapse of all three parties comprising the "Catalan tripartite" government (Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV). Newly-elected Catalan president Artur Mas was able to govern comfortably thanks to his party's large parliamentary representation allowing for punctual support of several parties on different issues, in what was known as a policy of "variable geometry". [8] [9] In 2011, CiU signed several agreements with the People's Party (PP) in order to pass the 2011 and 2012 budgets, as well as for the approval of several spending cuts. In spite of this, the relationship between both parties quickly deteriorated after the 2011 general election, as a result of Mas asking new Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy for greater fiscal autonomy for Catalonia. [10] [11]

On 11 September 2012, a massive pro-independence demonstration marked the Catalan political agenda and re-opened the debate about the right to hold a referendum on the independence of Catalonia, [12] [13] [14] as well as the debate about the feasibility of an independent Catalan state and its integration into the European Union. On 25 September 2012, President Artur Mas announced a snap regional election to be held on 25 November and argued, referring to the demonstration, that "this election will not be held to help a party to perpetuate itself in power. It will be held so that the whole of the Catalan population decides democratically and peacefully what will their future be as a nation." [15] President Mas signed the decree to officially call the Catalan election on 1 October. [16] Mas' move was criticized as an attempt to try to funnel the popular support for independence seen in the September demonstration into an absolute majority of seats in the election. [17]

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 2 October 2012, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia. [18] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution. [19] [20] [21]

Parliamentary composition in October 2012 [22]
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Convergence and Union's Parliamentary Group CDC 4562
UDC 17
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSC 2828
People's Party of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group PP 1818
Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and
Alternative Left's Parliamentary Group
ICV 810
EUiA 2
Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group ERC 1010
Mixed Group SI 36
Cs 3
Non-InscritsDCat1 [lower-alpha 2] 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [24]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Votes (%)Seats
CiU Artur Mas 2012 (cropped).jpg Artur Mas Catalan nationalism
Centrism
38.43%62Yes check.svg [25]
PSC–PSOE Pere Navarro 2012b (cropped).jpg Pere Navarro Social democracy 18.38%28X mark.svg [26]
PP
List
Alicia Sanchez-Camacho (cropped).jpg Alicia Sánchez-Camacho Conservatism
Christian democracy
12.37%18X mark.svg [27]
ICV–EUiA Joan Herrera 2010 (cropped).jpg Joan Herrera Regionalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics
7.37%10X mark.svg [28]
ERC–CatSí Oriol Junqueras 2012 (cropped).jpg Oriol Junqueras Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy
7.00%10X mark.svg [29]
[30]
C's Albert Rivera 2012 (cropped).jpg Albert Rivera Social liberalism 3.39%3X mark.svg [31]
SI Portrait placeholder.svg Alfons López Tena Catalan independence 3.29%4X mark.svg [32]
CUP David Fernandez 2012 (cropped).jpg David Fernàndez Catalan independence
Anti-capitalism
Socialism
New partyX mark.svg [33]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

OpinionPollingCataloniaRegionalElection2012.svg
Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 November 2010 to 25 November 2012, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls  Exit poll

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Results

Overall

Summary of the 25 November 2012 Parliament of Catalonia election results
CataloniaParliamentDiagram2012.svg
Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeats
Votes %±pp Total+/−
Convergence and Union (CiU)1,116,25930.71–7.7250–12
Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE)524,70714.43–3.9520–8
Republican Left of Catalonia–Catalonia Yes (ERC–CatSí)498,12413.70+6.7021+11
People's Party (PP)471,68112.98+0.6119+1
Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV–EUiA)359,7059.90+2.5313+3
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)275,0077.57+4.189+6
Popular Unity Candidacy–Left Alternative (CUP)126,4353.48New3+3
Platform for Catalonia (PxC)60,1071.65–0.750±0
Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI)46,8381.29–2.000–4
Blank Seats (EB)28,2880.78+0.180±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)20,8610.57+0.120±0
Pirates of Catalonia (Pirata.cat)18,2190.50+0.290±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)14,6140.40+0.230±0
Hartos.org (Hartos.org)11,7020.32New0±0
Democratic Way (VD)5,9840.16New0±0
Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)2,5820.07+0.040±0
Republican Left (IR)8260.02–0.030±0
Socialists and Republicans (SyR)3330.01New0±0
Blank ballots52,8981.46–1.47
Total3,635,170135±0
Valid votes3,635,17099.10–0.19
Invalid votes33,1400.90+0.19
Votes cast / turnout3,668,31067.76+8.98
Abstentions1,745,55832.24–8.98
Registered voters5,413,868
Sources [19] [34] [35]
Popular vote
CiU
30.71%
PSC–PSOE
14.43%
ERC–CatSí
13.70%
PP
12.98%
ICV–EUiA
9.90%
C's
7.57%
CUP
3.48%
PxC
1.65%
SI
1.29%
Others
2.84%
Blank ballots
1.46%
Seats
CiU
37.04%
ERC–CatSí
15.56%
PSC–PSOE
14.81%
PP
14.07%
ICV–EUiA
9.63%
C's
6.67%
CUP
2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency CiU PSC ERC PP ICV–EUiA C's CUP
 %S %S %S %S %S %S %S
Barcelona 28.12615.41412.71213.31211.1108.483.43
Girona 43.0910.1217.839.625.913.64.2
Lleida 43.1810.4117.4311.325.413.33.0
Tarragona 31.7713.6315.1315.036.917.313.6
Total30.75014.42013.72113.0199.9137.693.53
Sources [19] [35]

Aftermath

Investiture
Artur Mas (CiU)
Ballot →21 December 2012
Required majority →68 out of 135 Yes check.svg
Yes
71 / 135
No
63 / 135
Abstentions
0 / 135
Absentees
  • PP (1)
1 / 135
Sources [19]

Notes

  1. Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
  2. Joan Laporta, former SI legislator. [23]

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References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Sondejos" (PDF). Generalitat de Catalunya (in Catalan). 25 November 2012.
  2. "Spanish exit polls: Sampling error or nonresponse bias?" (PDF). Revista Internacional de Sociología. 23 August 2016.
  3. "Catalan separatists face poll setback". The Guardian. 22 November 2012.
  4. 1 2 "CiU no aconsegueix la majoria absoluta i el PSC podria ser atrapat per ERC ı PP". Segre (in Catalan). 18 November 2012.
  5. "Castigo a Mas en las urnas". La Razón (in Spanish). 19 November 2012. Archived from the original on 20 November 2012. Retrieved 22 November 2012.
  6. "PP y PSC compiten por la segunda plaza (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 19 November 2012. Archived from the original on 16 March 2015.
  7. "ENQUESTA: CiU, ERC i SI creixen i podran declarar la independència al Parlament si Espanya impedeix el referèndum". crónica.cat (in Catalan). 17 November 2012. Archived from the original on 19 November 2012.
  8. "La mayoría de CiU sigue sin ser absoluta y ERC supera al PSC". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
  9. "CiU, lejos de la mayoría absoluta". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
  10. "CiU fracasa en su lucha por la mayoría absoluta y PP logra la segunda posición". ABC (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
  11. "CiU no alcanza la mayoría absoluta por el ascenso de ERC, ICV y CUP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 18 November 2012.
  12. "CiU, lejos de la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 17 November 2012.
  13. 1 2 "Estimación de voto en Cataluña para las elecciones del 25N". El País (in Spanish). 17 November 2012.
  14. "CiU se quedará lejos de la mayoría absoluta que reclama Artur Mas para su plan independentista". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 19 November 2012.
  15. 1 2 "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER. Estudio preelectoral de Cataluña (19/11/2012)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 19 November 2012.
  16. "El PP atrapa al PSC mientras CiU sigue cerca de la mayoría absoluta". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 11 November 2012.
  17. 1 2 "El Racòmetre, 5 de novembre de 2012" (PDF). RAC1 (in Catalan). 5 November 2012.
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  19. "El independentismo bajaría al 40% si Catalunya saliera de la UE". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 4 November 2012.
  20. 1 2 3 "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 28. 3a onada 2012" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 8 November 2012.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 "Preelectoral de Cataluña. Elecciones autonómicas, 2012 (Estudio nº 2965. Octubre 2012)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 8 November 2012.
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  30. "CiU no alcanza la mayoría absoluta". El Mundo (in Spanish). 30 September 2012.
  31. "Marea soberanista sin mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 1 October 2012.
  32. "CiU roza la mayoría absoluta mientras el PSC se hunde y el PP baja levemente". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 30 September 2012.
  33. "Una enquesta de Telecinco indica que un 51% de catalans diria 'sí' a la independència i només un 18,6% triaria el 'no'". Ara (in Catalan). 15 September 2012.
  34. "CiU perdería 4 escaños mientras ERC subiría con fuerza". eldebat.cat (in Spanish). 16 September 2012.
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  36. "CiU fa evident el seu desgast però l'alternativa segueix òrfena". Ara (in Catalan). 23 July 2012.
  37. "CiU fa evident el seu desgast però l'alternativa segueix òrfena". Ara (in Catalan). 23 July 2012.
  38. 1 2 "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 27. 2a onada 2012" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 27 June 2012.
  39. "Gran davallada electoral de CiU". eldebat.cat (in Catalan). 14 June 2012. Archived from the original on 17 June 2012.
  40. "CiU resiste mientras el PP retrocede y los socialistas se estancan a la baja". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 10 June 2012.
  41. "Los recortes y las alianzas con el PPC erosionan la pujanza de CiU". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 13 May 2012.
  42. "Voto estimado a partir del sondeo" (PDF). El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 13 May 2012.
  43. 1 2 "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 26. 1a onada 2012" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 2 March 2012.
  44. "Catalunya mantiene la confianza en Mas para salir de la crisis". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 27 January 2012.
  45. 1 2 "Voto estimado a partir del sondeo" (PDF). El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 27 January 2012.
  46. "CiU sale indemne de los recortes y mantiene intacto su apoyo electoral". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2 January 2012.
  47. 1 2 "Catalunya mantiene la confianza en Mas para salir de la crisis". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 27 June 2011.
  48. 1 2 "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 24. 2a onada 2011" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 29 June 2011.
  49. "Proyección electoral. Barómetro de junio de 2011" (PDF). Feedback (in Spanish). 30 June 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 July 2011.
  50. 1 2 "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política 23. 1a onada 2011" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 25 February 2011.
  51. "Proyección electoral. Barómetro de febrero de 2011" (PDF). Feedback (in Spanish). 26 February 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 July 2011.
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