2019 Cantabrian regional election

2019 Cantabrian regional election

←  2015 26 May 2019 2023  →
All 35 seats in the Parliament of Cantabria 18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	500,925 0.3%
Turnout	329,137 (65.7%) 0.5 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Miguel Ángel Revilla María José Sáenz de Buruaga Pablo Zuloaga Party PRC PP PSOE Leader since 1983 22 January 2019 16 July 2017 Last election 12 seats, 29.9% 13 seats, 32.6% 5 seats, 14.0% Seats won 14 9 7 Seat change 2 4 2 Popular vote 122,679 78,347 57,383 Percentage 37.6% 24.0% 17.6% Swing 7.7 pp 8.6 pp 3.6 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Félix Álvarez Cristóbal Palacio Mónica Rodero Party Cs Vox Podemos Leader since 2 March 2019 20 March 2019 21 March 2019 Last election 2 seats, 6.9% 0 seats, 0.3% 3 seats, 8.9% Seats won 3 2 0 Seat change 1 2 3 Popular vote 25,872 16,496 10,224 Percentage 7.9% 5.1% 3.1% Swing 1.0 pp 4.8 pp 5.8 pp
President before election Miguel Ángel Revilla PRC Elected President Miguel Ángel Revilla PRC

The 2019 Cantabrian regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Parliament of the autonomous community of Cantabria. All 35 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

The election saw the Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC) of incumbent president Miguel Ángel Revilla become the most voted political force in a regional election for the first time, with 37.6% of the share and 14 out of the 35 seats at stake. Combined with an increase in the support for the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), the governing PRC–PSOE coalition went from a minority government to a majority one, with Revilla being re-elected for a fourth term in office. The People's Party (PP), with 24.0% of the vote and 9 seats, obtained its worst result since the 1991 election, whereas Podemos—which had seen an internal crisis ravage its parliamentary group in the region—fell below the five percent threshold and lost all of its seats. Both liberal Citizens and far-right Vox saw an increase in support, with both parties gaining seats and, in the latter's case, entering the chamber for the first time.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Cantabria was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Cantabria, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Cantabrian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Cantabria and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Cantabrians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). ^[2]

The 35 members of the Parliament of Cantabria were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. ^{[1] [3]}

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Cantabria expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Parliament were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 26 May 2019. ^{[1] [3] [4]}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Cantabria and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. ^[1]

The election to the Parliament of Cantabria was officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of Cantabria (BOC), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 20 June. ^[5]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution. ^[6]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	13	13
	Regionalist Parliamentary Group		PRC	12	12
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	5	5
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		Cs	1	4
			OlaCantabria	1 [a]
			INDEP	2 [b]
	Non-Inscrits		Podemos	1 [c]	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Cantabria, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[3] [4]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		María José Sáenz de Buruaga	Conservatism Christian democracy	32.58%	13	N	[10] [11]
	PRC	List Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC)		Miguel Ángel Revilla	Regionalism Centrism	29.89%	12	Y	[12]
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Pablo Zuloaga	Social democracy	14.04%	5	Y	[13]
	Podemos	List We Can (Podemos)		Mónica Rodero	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	8.89%	3	N	[14] [15] [16]
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Félix Álvarez	Liberalism	6.94%	2	N	[17] [18]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Cristóbal Palacio	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	0.34%	0	N	[19]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 18 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Cantabria.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout		PRC							Lead
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	65.7	24.0 9	37.6 14	17.6 7	3.1 0	7.9 3	1.9 0	5.1 2	–	13.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 1]	22–23 May 2019	?	?	18.9 7	31.2 12	17.5 7	7.2 2	13.2 5	2.2 0	7.3 2	–	12.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 2]	21–22 May 2019	?	?	19.1 7	31.3 12	17.7 7	6.9 2	13.0 5	2.2 0	7.2 2	–	12.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 3]	20–21 May 2019	?	?	19.0 7	31.3 12	17.6 7	6.9 2	12.6 5	2.1 0	7.5 2	–	12.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 4]	19–20 May 2019	?	?	18.9 7	31.2 12	17.5 7	7.0 2	12.8 5	1.9 0	7.3 2	–	12.3
NC Report/La Razón [p 5] [p 6] [p 7]	19 May 2019	?	?	20.1 7	? 13	17.6 6	? 3	? 4	? 0	? 2	–	?
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 8]	16–19 May 2019	?	?	18.5 7	31.0 12	17.6 6	7.0 2	12.9 5	2.0 0	7.4 3	–	12.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 9]	13–16 May 2019	?	?	18.5 7	30.1 12	17.3 6	7.0 2	13.3 5	2.0 0	7.7 3	–	11.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 10]	10–13 May 2019	?	?	17.8 7	29.4 11	16.5 6	7.4 3	14.1 5	2.4 0	8.7 3	–	11.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 11]	7–10 May 2019	?	?	16.9 7	28.8 11	16.8 6	6.8 2	15.0 6	2.3 0	9.3 3	–	11.9
Sigma Dos/El Diario Montañés [p 12]	6–8 May 2019	700	?	22.0 8/9	33.4 12/13	18.0 7	6.8 2	8.6 3	–	6.3 2	–	11.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 13]	4–7 May 2019	?	?	16.0 6	27.7 11	16.1 6	6.8 2	15.8 6	2.4 0	9.4 4	–	11.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 14]	29 Apr–4 May 2019	?	?	16.3 6	28.1 12	15.3 6	7.0 2	15.5 6	2.1 0	9.0 3	–	11.8
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	—	72.4	21.7 (8)	14.6 (5)	25.2 (9)	[d]	15.1 (5)	[d]	11.2 (4)	10.2 (4)	3.5
CIS [p 15]	21 Mar–23 Apr 2019	390	?	20.7 8/10	33.8 12/13	18.1 5/7	7.9 2/3	8.6 2/3	3.2 0	5.3 1/2	–	13.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 16]	31 Mar–7 Apr 2019	?	?	19.0 8	25.0 10	18.3 7	6.0 2	11.4 4	2.2 0	11.3 4	–	6.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 17]	24–31 Mar 2019	?	?	18.1 7	25.9 10	17.9 7	[d]	11.6 4	[d]	11.2 4	7.9 3	7.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 18]	17–24 Mar 2019	?	?	18.3 7	25.8 10	18.4 7	[d]	11.3 4	[d]	11.0 4	7.6 3	7.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 19]	10–17 Mar 2019	?	?	18.1 7	25.5 10	17.4 6	[d]	10.1 4	[d]	13.1 5	7.5 3	7.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 20]	3–10 Mar 2019	?	?	17.7 7	25.7 10	17.1 6	[d]	10.6 4	[d]	13.0 5	7.6 3	8.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 21]	22 Feb–3 Mar 2019	?	?	17.6 7	25.7 10	17.0 6	[d]	10.7 4	[d]	13.0 5	7.7 3	8.1
Sigma Dos/PP [p 22]	2 Dec 2018	1,200	?	29.1 10/11	26.5 10	17.0 6/7	[d]	14.1 5	[d]	–	9.3 3	2.6
SyM Consulting [p 23] [p 24]	4–5 Jun 2018	781	65.0	20.9 8	35.2 14/15	22.2 8/9	4.2 0	10.8 4	1.8 0	–	–	13.0
SyM Consulting [p 25] [p 26]	2–4 Mar 2018	724	67.2	30.5 11/12	27.8 10/11	14.9 5	5.1 2	15.5 6	1.2 0	–	–	2.7
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016	—	68.5	41.5 (15)	–	23.5 (9)	[d]	14.4 (5)	[d]	0.2 (0)	17.7 (6)	18.0
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015	—	71.0	36.9 (14)	–	22.4 (8)	17.9 (7)	15.2 (6)	4.4 (0)	0.3 (0)	–	14.5
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	66.2	32.6 13	29.9 12	14.0 5	8.9 3	6.9 2	2.5 0	0.3 0	–	2.7

Results

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Parliament of Cantabria election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC)	122,679	37.64	+7.75	14	+2
	People's Party (PP)	78,347	24.04	–8.54	9	–4
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	57,383	17.61	+3.57	7	+2
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)	25,872	7.94	+1.00	3	+1
	Vox (Vox)	16,496	5.06	+4.72	2	+2
	We Can (Podemos)	10,224	3.14	–5.75	0	–3
	United Left+Equo (Cantabrian Tide) (IU+Equo (Marea Cántabra))1	6,204	1.90	–1.13	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,854	0.57	–0.03	0	±0
	Cantabrists (Cantabristas)	1,584	0.49	New	0	±0
	Hi Cantabria (OlaCantabria)	1,119	0.34	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE)	774	0.24	New	0	±0
	New People's Left (NIP)	187	0.06	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		3,180	0.98	–0.57
Total		325,903			35	±0
Valid votes		325,903	99.02	+0.75
Invalid votes		3,234	0.98	–0.75
Votes cast / turnout		329,137	65.71	–0.52
Abstentions		171,788	34.29	+0.52
Registered voters		500,925
Sources [6] [20]
Footnotes: 1 United Left+Equo (Cantabrian Tide) results are compared to the combined totals of United Left and Equo in the 2015 election.

Popular vote PRC   37.64% PP   24.04% PSOE   17.61% Cs   7.94% Vox   5.06% Podemos   3.14% IU+Equo   1.90% Others   1.69% Blank ballots   0.98%

Seats PRC   40.00% PP   25.71% PSOE   20.00% Cs   8.57% Vox   5.71%

Aftermath

Further information: Fourth government of Miguel Ángel Revilla

Investiture Miguel Ángel Revilla (PRC)
Ballot →		27 June 2019
Required majority →		18 out of 35 Y
	Yes • PRC (14) • PSOE (7)	21 / 35
	No • PP (9) • Cs (3)	12 / 35
	Abstentions • Vox (2)	2 / 35
	Absentees	0 / 35
Sources [6] [21]

Notes

1. Juan Ramón Carrancio, former Cs legislator. ^[7]
2. José Ramón Blanco and Alberto Bolado, former Podemos legislators. ^[8]
3. Verónica Ordóñez. ^[9]
4. Within Unidas Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "#emojiPanel Cantabria (24M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 May 2019.
2. "#emojiPanel Cantabria (23M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 May 2019.
3. "#emojiPanel Cantabria (22M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 May 2019.
4. "#emojiPanel Cantabria (21M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 May 2019.
5. "El PSOE gana en Madrid, pero la suma de PP, Cs y Vox lo aleja de Sol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
6. "Resultados por comunidades. Encuesta mayo 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 May 2019. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
7. "Encuesta electoral: Ajustada batalla entre bloques el 26-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
8. "#emojiPanel Cantabria (20M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
9. "#electoPanel Cantabria (17M): Revilla amplía el furaco con respecto a sus contrincantes". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2019.
10. "#electoPanel Cantabria (14M): Revilla ya roza el 30%". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 May 2019.
11. "#electoPanel Cantabria (11M): sorpasso del PP al PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 May 2019.
12. "El PRC ganará las elecciones pero necesitará al PP o PSOE para gobernar con mayoría absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
13. "#electoPanel Cantabria (8M): sigue el empate PSOE-PP-Cs en la segunda plaza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 May 2019.
14. "ElectoPanel Cantabria (5M): Revilla (PRC) lidera. Triple empate PP-Cs-PSOE por detrás". Electomanía (in Spanish). 5 May 2019.
15. "Estimaciones de voto en Comunidades Autónomas y grandes ciudades (Estudio nº 3245. Marzo-abril 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
16. "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
17. "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
18. "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
19. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
20. "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
21. "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
22. "CANTABRIA. Encuesta de SigmaDos para PP, 02.12.2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 December 2018.
23. "Estimación oleada Cantabria Junio 2018. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 25 June 2018.
24. "CANTABRIA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta SyM Consulting. Junio 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 June 2018.
25. "Estimación Cantabria. Marzo 2018". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 12 March 2018.
26. "CANTABRIA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 March 2018.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 8/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Cantabria (Organic Law 8) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 18 September 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Ley 5/1987, de 27 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Cantabria (Law 5) (in Spanish). 27 March 1987. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
5. "Decreto 3/2019, de 1 de abril, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Cantabria". Boletín Oficial de Cantabria (in Spanish) (13 Extraordinary): 488. 2 April 2019. ISSN   2483-7091.
6. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Cantabria (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
7. "Carrancio será el candidato de OlaCantabria a la Presidencia de la comunidad". Europa Press (in Spanish). 20 January 2019. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
8. "La gestora de Podemos suspende de militancia a José Ramón Blanco y Alberto Bolado". Europa Press (in Spanish). 21 January 2019. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
9. "Podemos restaura la militancia a Ordóñez, que pide dejar el grupo parlamentario". Europa Press (in Spanish). 17 January 2019. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
10. "Ruth Beitia abandona la política y renuncia a la candidatura del PP a la Presidencia de Cantabria". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 22 January 2019. Retrieved 22 January 2019.
11. "Sáenz de Buruaga, la presidenta humillada por Casado que será segundo plato electoral del PP en Cantabria". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 23 January 2019. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
12. "Revilla repetirá como candidato del PRC y aspirará a la reelección como presidente de Cantabria en 2019". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 25 October 2018. Retrieved 22 January 2019.
13. "Pablo Zuloaga vence las primarias del PSOE y se convierte en el primer candidato a la Presidencia de Cantabria". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 27 May 2018. Retrieved 22 January 2019.
14. "Rosana Alonso tacha de "atentado" la decisión de Podemos de imponer una gestora en Cantabria". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 24 December 2018. Retrieved 22 January 2019.
15. "El Parlamento de Cantabria disuelve el grupo de Podemos tras la ruptura entre sus diputados". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 15 January 2019. Retrieved 22 January 2019.
16. "Podemos se salta las primarias e impone a Mónica Rodero como candidata a la Presidencia de Cantabria". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 21 March 2019. Retrieved 21 March 2019.
17. "Ciudadanos estalla con el abandono masivo de "dos tercios de la militancia"". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 30 June 2017. Retrieved 22 January 2019.
18. "Félix Álvarez gana las primarias y se convierte en el candidato de Ciudadanos a la Presidencia de Cantabria". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 2 March 2019. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
19. "Cristóbal Palacio será el candidato de VOX a la presidencia de Cantabria". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 20 March 2019. Retrieved 25 May 2019.
20. "Parliament of Cantabria election results, 26 May 2019" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Cantabria. 7 June 2019. Retrieved 8 December 2019.
21. "Revilla, reelegido presidente de Cantabria por cuarta vez con el apoyo del PSOE y la abstención de Vox". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 27 June 2019. Retrieved 27 June 2019.