2015 Cantabrian regional election

2015 Cantabrian regional election

←  2011 24 May 2015 2019  →
All 35 seats in the Parliament of Cantabria 18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	499,596 0.9%
Turnout	330,868 (66.2%) 1.2 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Ignacio Diego Miguel Ángel Revilla Eva Díaz Tezanos Party PP PRC PSOE Leader since 13 November 2004 1983 31 March 2012 Last election 20 seats, 46.1% 12 seats, 29.1% 7 seats, 16.4% Seats won 13 12 5 Seat change 7 0 2 Popular vote 105,944 97,185 45,653 Percentage 32.6% 29.9% 14.0% Swing 13.5 pp 0.8 pp 2.4 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader José Ramón Blanco Rubén Gómez Party Podemos C's Leader since 14 February 2015 9 April 2015 Last election Did not contest Did not contest Seats won 3 2 Seat change 3 2 Popular vote 28,895 22,552 Percentage 8.9% 6.9% Swing New party New party
President before election Ignacio Diego PP Elected President Miguel Ángel Revilla PRC

The 2015 Cantabrian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community of Cantabria. All 35 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Cantabria was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Cantabria, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Cantabrian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Autonomous Community. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Cantabria and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Cantabrians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). ^[2]

The 35 members of the Parliament of Cantabria were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. ^{[1] [3]}

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in Cantabria. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called. ^{[3] [4] [5]}

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Cantabria expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Parliament were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 24 May 2015. ^{[1] [3] [4] [5]}

The President of the Autonomous Community had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Cantabria and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. ^[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 18 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Cantabria (20 until 1 June 2012).

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout		PRC						Lead
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	66.2	32.6 13	29.9 12	14.0 5	2.5 0	0.7 0	8.9 3	6.9 2	2.7
GAD3/Antena 3 [p 1]	11–22 May 2015	?	?	? 15/16	? 9/10	? 5/6	–	–	? 0/2	? 3/4	?
GAD3/ABC [p 2] [p 3]	17 May 2015	?	?	37.5 14/15	22.3 8/9	15.7 6	–	–	7.4 2/3	10.3 4	15.2
NC Report/La Razón [p 4] [p 5] [p 6]	17 May 2015	400	?	36.2 13	24.2 9	15.3 5	2.8 0	0.7 0	10.2 3	8.9 3	12.0
Ikerfel/El Diario Montañés [p 7] [p 8]	5–9 May 2015	2,000	?	34.7 13/14	21.8 8/9	15.7 6	4.0 0	1.4 0	8.8 3	11.9 4/5	12.9
PP [p 9]	1 May 2015	?	?	? 15/17	? 7/9	? 5/7	–	–	? 2	? 3	?
CIS [p 10] [p 11]	23 Mar–19 Apr 2015	799	?	33.2 13/14	22.4 8/9	16.3 6	3.0 0	1.6 0	9.5 3	10.3 4	10.8
NC Report/La Razón [p 12] [p 13] [p 14]	17–26 Mar 2015	400	?	35.9 13/14	20.1 7/8	15.1 5/6	2.7 0	1.1 0	12.7 3/4	10.1 3/4	15.8
Ikerfel/El Diario Montañés [p 15] [p 16]	23 Feb–3 Mar 2015	1,800	?	34.8 13/14	17.6 6/7	15.3 5/6	4.1 0	–	13.1 5	12.5 4/5	17.2
PP [p 17]	2 Feb 2015	?	?	? 14/16	? 8/10	? 5/6	–	–	? 5/6	–	?
PP [p 18]	10 Nov 2014	?	?	? 16	? 9	? 5	–	–	? 5	–	?
SyM Consulting [p 19] [p 20] [p 21]	1–5 Nov 2014	508	69.9	36.8 14	12.6 4/6	21.8 8	6.0 2/3	5.9 2	13.4 5	–	15.0
Llorente & Cuenca [p 22]	31 Oct 2014	?	?	? 13/15	? 9/10	? 4	? 1/2	? 0/1	? 4/5	–	?
2014 EP election	25 May 2014	—	44.1	34.7 (15)	–	24.3 (10)	9.0 (3)	8.2 (3)	9.2 (4)	3.0 (0)	10.4
SyM Consulting [p 23] [p 24]	6–9 Feb 2014	516	70.7	36.9 14	27.7 10/11	16.8 6	7.7 2/3	6.3 2	–	–	9.2
NC Report/La Razón [p 25] [p 26]	15 Oct–12 Nov 2013	?	?	39.6 15/16	30.6 11/12	16.7 6/7	? 2	–	–	–	9.0
SyM Consulting [p 27] [p 28]	24–27 Sep 2013	450	77.2	36.7 14/16	24.3 9/10	17.2 5/6	7.7 2/3	? 2/3	–	–	12.4
NC Report/La Razón [p 29] [p 30] [p 31]	15 Apr–10 May 2013	200	?	39.8 15/16	30.8 11/12	16.2 6/7	6.1 2	–	–	–	9.0
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	71.6	52.2 (23)	12.5 (5)	25.2 (11)	3.6 (0)	3.6 (0)	–	–	27.0
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—	69.8	46.1 20	29.1 12	16.4 7	3.3* 0	1.7 0	–	–	17.0
(*) Results for Social and Ecologist Left.

Results

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Parliament of Cantabria election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	105,944	32.58	–13.51	13	–7
	Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC)	97,185	29.89	+0.77	12	±0
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	45,653	14.04	–2.32	5	–2
	We Can (Podemos)	28,895	8.89	New	3	+3
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	22,552	6.94	New	2	+2
	United Left (IU)1	8,246	2.54	–0.78	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	2,380	0.73	–0.99	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,965	0.60	New	0	±0
	For Cantabria Yes (Sí)	1,852	0.57	New	0	±0
	Equo (Equo)	1,592	0.49	New	0	±0
	Let's Win Cantabria (Ganemos)	1,417	0.44	New	0	±0
	Vox (Vox)	1,119	0.34	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	562	0.17	–0.16	0	±0
	Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD)	495	0.15	–0.12	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	251	0.08	–0.07	0	±0
Blank ballots		5,025	1.55	–0.61
Total		325,133			35	–4
Valid votes		325,133	98.27	–0.03
Invalid votes		5,735	1.73	+0.03
Votes cast / turnout		330,868	66.23	–3.56
Abstentions		168,728	33.77	+3.56
Registered voters		499,596
Sources [6] [7]
Footnotes: 1 United Left results are compared to Social and Ecologist Left totals in the 2011 election.

Popular vote PP   32.58% PRC   29.89% PSOE   14.04% Podemos   8.89% C's   6.94% IU   2.54% Others   3.58% Blank ballots   1.55%

Seats PP   37.14% PRC   34.29% PSOE   14.29% Podemos   8.57% C's   5.71%

Aftermath

Further information: Third government of Miguel Ángel Revilla

Investiture Miguel Ángel Revilla (PRC)
Ballot →		1 July 2015	3 July 2015
Required majority →		18 out of 35 N	Simple Y
	Yes • PRC (12) • PSOE (5)	17 / 35	17 / 35
	No • PP (13) • C's (2)	15 / 35	15 / 35
	Abstentions • Podemos (3)	3 / 35	3 / 35
	Absentees	0 / 35	0 / 35
Sources [7]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
2. "Diego y Revilla, en busca de alianzas". ABC (in Spanish). 20 May 2015.
3. "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
4. "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
5. "Cantabria: Ignacio Diego dependerá del PRC o de los socialistas para gobernar". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
6. "Cantabria. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
7. "En Cantabria no habrá gobernabilidad sin pactos". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
8. "CANTABRIA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Ikerfel". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
9. "El PP maneja una nueva encuesta electoral". Popular TV Cantabria (in Spanish). 1 May 2015.
10. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Cantabria (Estudio nº 3070. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
11. "El PP se echa a la calle para recuperar a las clases medias". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
12. "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
13. "Cantabria: La gobernabilidad en juego en una cámara que reduce su aforo". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
14. "Cantabria. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 April 2015.
15. "PP perdería mayoría absoluta y lograrían escaños Podemos y C's, según sondeo". El Diario Montañés (in Spanish). 15 March 2015.
16. "CANTABRIA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo Ikerfel". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 March 2015.
17. "CANTABRIA, Enero 2015. Sondeos internos". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 February 2015.
18. "CANTABRIA, Octubre 2014. Sondeo interno PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 November 2014.
19. "BCM Cantabria. Tercera oleada. Noviembre 2014. Elecciones autonómicas 2015". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
20. "Estimación tercera oleada Cantabria. Noviembre 2014". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
21. "CANTABRIA, Noviembre 2014. SyM Consulting". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
22. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
23. "BCM Cantabria Febrero 2014. Segunda oleada sondeo electoral. Elecciones autonómicas 2015 y europeas". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 13 February 2014.
24. "Estimación segunda oleada Cantabria. Febrero 2014" (PDF). SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 13 February 2014.
25. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
26. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 15 March 2015.
27. "BCM Cantabria. Primera oleada sondeo electoral. Septiembre 2013. Elecciones autonómicas 2015". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 8 October 2013.
28. "Estimación primera oleada Cantabria. Septiembre 2013". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 8 October 2013.
29. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
30. "Perderían la mayoría absoluta en Madrid, Cantabria y Valencia". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
31. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.

Other

1. Statute of Autonomy of Cantabria of 1981 (Organic Law 8) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 18 September 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Parliament of Cantabria Elections Law of 1987 (Law 5) (in Spanish). 27 March 1987. Retrieved 18 September 2017.
4. General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985 (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
6. "Parliament of Cantabria election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Cantabria. 17 July 2015. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
7. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Cantabria (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 September 2017.