2015 Extremaduran regional election

2015 Extremaduran regional election

←  2011 24 May 2015 2019  →
All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura 33 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	911,433 0.5%
Turnout	650,774 (71.4%) 3.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Guillermo Fernández Vara José Antonio Monago Álvaro Jaén Party PSOE–SIEx PP Podemos Leader since 20 September 2006 8 November 2008 14 February 2015 Leader's seat Badajoz Badajoz Cáceres Last election 30 seats, 43.4% 32 seats, 46.1% Did not contest Seats won 30 28 6 Seat change 0 4 6 Popular vote 265,015 236,266 51,216 Percentage 41.5% 37.0% 8.0% Swing 1.9 pp 9.1 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Victoria Domínguez Pedro Escobar Party C's IU Leader since 5 April 2015 30 September 2007 Leader's seat Cáceres Badajoz (lost) Last election 0 seats, 0.3% [lower-alpha 1] 3 seats, 5.7% Seats won 1 0 Seat change 1 3 Popular vote 28,010 27,122 Percentage 4.4% 4.2% Swing 4.1 pp 1.5 pp
Constituency results map for the Assembly of Extremadura
President before election José Antonio Monago PP Elected President Guillermo Fernández Vara PSOE

The 2015 Extremaduran regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Assembly of the autonomous community of Extremadura. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Assembly of Extremadura was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Extremadura, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Extremaduran Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1]

Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Extremadurans abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). ^[2] The 65 members of the Assembly of Extremadura were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies were also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both districts and reached five percent regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations. ^{[1] [3]}

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 2 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called. ^{[3] [4]}

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 21 June 2015. ^{[1] [3] [4]}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					eX			Lead
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	71.4	37.0 28	41.5 30	4.2 0	0.6 0	1.5 0	8.0 6	4.4 1	4.5
GAD3/Antena 3 [p 1]	11–22 May 2015	?	?	? 27/29	? 26/27	? 0	–	–	? 4/5	? 5/6	?
NC Report/La Razón [p 2] [p 3] [p 4]	17 May 2015	500	?	35.7 25/26	37.6 27/28	4.0 0	0.8 0	–	10.1 6/7	9.5 5/6	1.9
PP [p 5]	4–8 May 2015	3,500	?	41.1 30	30.3 21	4.1 0	1.0 0	–	10.0 7	10.6 7	10.8
Enquest/El Periódico [p 6] [p 7]	28–30 Apr 2015	?	75.5	41.0 29/30	30.7 21/22	4.2 0	0.7 0	0.6 0	12.1 7/8	9.9 6	10.3
GAD3/ABC [p 8] [p 9] [p 10]	22–24 Apr 2015	501	?	37.9 26/27	33.9 24/25	3.8 0	1.1 0	–	8.3 6	10.5 7/8	4.0
Metroscopia/El País [p 11] [p 12]	21–22 Apr 2015	1,000	?	37.4 25	31.8 22	5.4 3	–	–	13.0 8	10.5 7	5.6
CIS [p 13] [p 14]	23 Mar–19 Apr 2015	1,199	?	34.6 24/26	38.9 26/28	4.1 0/2	0.7 0	–	11.6 8	6.9 4	4.3
Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días [p 15]	30 Mar–15 Apr 2015	14,073	79.1	33.3 24/25	34.8 26/27	4.3 0/2	3.9 0/1	2.1 0	10.7 7/8	8.1 6/7	1.5
PSOE [p 16]	9 Apr 2015	?	?	? 26	? 29	–	–	–	? 7	? 3	?
NC Report/La Razón [p 17] [p 18] [p 19]	25 Mar–9 Apr 2015	500	?	36.2 26/27	38.2 27/28	4.1 0	0.9 0	–	9.1 5/6	9.2 5/6	2.0
Sigma Dos/Canal Extremadura [p 20] [p 21]	24–27 Feb 2015	1,300	?	43.8 31/33	29.2 21/23	4.4 0/2	–	–	13.4 9	4.4 0/2	14.6
Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días [p 22] [p 23]	9–20 Feb 2015	1,067	?	32.6 24	33.4 24	5.1 3	7.6 5	2.1 0	12.7 9	3.2 0	0.8
PP [p 24]	31 Jan 2015	?	?	? 32	? 25	? 3	–	–	? 5	–	?
Sigma Dos/Hoy [p 25] [p 26]	8–12 Jan 2015	800	?	43.0 29/31	33.3 23/24	5.8 3	–	–	12.4 8/9	–	9.7
Llorente & Cuenca [p 27]	31 Oct 2014	?	?	? 23/26	? 26/29	? 3/5	? 2	–	? 4/7	–	?
Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días [p 28] [p 29]	21 Oct 2014	376	?	33.0 26	35.0 27	4.5 0	7.5 5	–	9.5 7	–	2.0
Sigma Dos/Hoy [p 30] [p 31]	16–20 Oct 2014	800	?	39.7 27/29	38.2 27/29	3.6 0	–	–	13.5 9	–	1.5
2014 EP election [p 32]	25 May 2014	—	44.1	35.6 27	38.7 29	6.3 4	5.5 3	0.5 0	4.8 2	1.0 0	3.1
Sigma Dos/Hoy [p 33] [p 34]	23–27 Jan 2014	800	?	44.3 31/32	38.9 27/28	9.5 6	3.6 0	–	–	–	5.4
NC Report/La Razón [p 35] [p 36] [p 37]	15 Oct–12 Nov 2013	?	?	? 30/31	? 30/31	? 4/5	–	–	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón [p 38] [p 39] [p 40]	15 Apr–10 May 2013	250	?	39.1 29/30	43.2 31/32	? 4/5	–	–	–	–	4.1
Sigma Dos/Hoy [p 41] [p 42]	29 Apr–3 May 2013	800	?	45.1 31/33	39.1 27/29	8.5 5	2.7 0	–	–	–	6.0
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	73.9	51.2 37	37.2 25	5.7 3	3.5 0	–	–	–	14.0
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—	74.7	46.1 32	43.4 30	5.7 3	1.1 0	–	–	–	2.7

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Assembly of Extremadura election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party–Independent Socialists (PSOE–SIEx)	265,015	41.50	–1.95	30	±0
	People's Party (PP)	236,266	37.00	–9.13	28	–4
	We Can (Podemos)	51,216	8.02	New	6	+6
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1	28,010	4.39	+4.06	1	+1
	Let's Win Extremadura–United Left–The Greens (Ganemos–IU–LV)	27,122	4.25	–1.47	0	–3
	Extremadurans (eXtremeños)2	9,305	1.46	+1.30	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	3,947	0.62	–0.44	0	±0
	United Extremadura (EU)	3,127	0.49	New	0	±0
	Vox (Vox)	1,786	0.28	New	0	±0
	Forward Extremadura (AEx)	1,538	0.24	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,502	0.24	New	0	±0
	Forward Badajoz (BA)	1,245	0.19	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		8,561	1.34	–0.07
Total		638,640			65	±0
Valid votes		638,640	98.14	–0.51
Invalid votes		12,134	1.86	+0.51
Votes cast / turnout		650,774	71.40	–3.25
Abstentions		260,659	28.60	+3.25
Registered voters		911,433
Sources [5] [6] [7]
Footnotes: 1 Citizens–Party of the Citizenry results are compared to Extremaduran People's Union totals in the 2011 election. 2 Extremadurans results are compared to Convergence for Extremadura totals in the 2011 election.

Popular vote PSOE–SIEx   41.50% PP   37.00% Podemos   8.02% C's   4.39% Ganemos–IU–LV   4.25% eX   1.46% Others   2.06% Blank ballots   1.34%

Seats PSOE–SIEx   46.15% PP   43.08% Podemos   9.23% C's   1.54%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP		Podemos		C's
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Badajoz	43.7	18	36.3	15	7.3	3	3.9	−
Cáceres	38.0	12	38.2	13	9.2	3	5.1	1
Total	41.5	30	37.0	28	8.0	6	4.4	1
Sources [5] [6] [7]

Aftermath

Investiture Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE)
Ballot →		1 July 2015
Required majority →		33 out of 65 Y
	Yes • PSOE–SIEx (30) • Podemos (6)	36 / 65
	No	0 / 65
	Abstentions • PP (28) • C's (1)	29 / 65
	Absentees	0 / 65
Sources [7]

Notes

1. Results for UPEx in the 2011 election.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
2. "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
3. "Extremadura: PP y PSOE pugnan por el poder con la amenaza del ascenso de Podemos". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
4. "Extremadura. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015.
5. "Monago obtendría 30 diputados y Vara 21, según una encuesta del PP". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 13 May 2015.
6. "El PP mantiene la mayoría y el PSOE pierde casi 13 puntos en Extremadura". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
7. "Los populares ganan en el ámbito urbano y ahora también en el rural". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
8. "Monago amplía su ventaja sobre el PSOE en Extremadura, pero decidirán los pactos". ABC (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
9. "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
10. "La segunda vuelta de Monago y Vara". ABC (in Spanish). 21 May 2015.
11. "Ciudadanos y Podemos erosionan el bipartidismo en Extremadura". El País (in Spanish). 25 April 2015.
12. "Situación política en Extremadura". El País (in Spanish). 24 April 2015.
13. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Estudio nº 3073. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
14. "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
15. "PSOE o PP estarían obligados a pactar para gobernar Extremadura". Extremadura 7 Días (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
16. "El PSOE vencerá en Extremadura con tres escaños más que el PP, Podemos entra con siete y Ciudadanos con tres". El Plural (in Spanish). 9 April 2015.
17. "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
18. "Extremadura: Monago y Fernández Vara, pugna reñida por ser la fuerza más votada". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
19. "Extremadura. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 April 2015.
20. "Estudio de Opinión ante las Elecciones Autonómicas en Extremadura". Canal Extremadura (in Spanish). 9 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015.
21. "EXTREMADURA, Febrero 2015. Sondeo SigmaDos". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 March 2015.
22. "Encuesta sobre las elecciones autonómicas en Extremadura - Febrero 2015". Extremadura 7 Días (in Spanish). 26 February 2015. Archived from the original on 26 February 2015.
23. "EXTREMADURA, Febrero 2015. Sondeo Vaubán". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 February 2015.
24. "EXTREMADURA, Enero 2015. Sondeo interno PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 31 January 2015.
25. "El PP, a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta". Hoy (in Spanish). 18 January 2015. Archived from the original on 20 January 2015.
26. "EXTREMADURA, Enero 2015. Sondeo Sigma Dos". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 January 2015.
27. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
28. "Encuesta Electoral, intención de voto actual de los extremeños". Extremadura 7 Días (in Spanish). 21 October 2014. Archived from the original on 7 December 2014.
29. "EXTREMADURA, Octubre 2014. Vaubán". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 October 2014.
30. "El PP, a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta". Hoy (in Spanish). 25 October 2014.
31. "EXTREMADURA, Octubre 2014. Sigma Dos / Hoy". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 October 2014.
32. "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
33. "IU dobla los escaños y refuerza su papel clave en la política extremeña". Hoy (in Spanish). 2 February 2014.
34. "El paro y la falta de industria, problemas más importantes para los extremeños". Hoy (in Spanish). 31 January 2014.
35. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
36. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 3 July 2014.
37. "Las cosas de Paco Marhuenda: Extremadura: Monago necesitaría otra vez el apoyo de IU". Extremadura Progresista (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
38. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
39. "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
40. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
41. "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones en Extremadura". Hoy (in Spanish). 12 May 2013.
42. "El 45,1% de los extremeños votaría al PP en las autonómicas, frente al 39,1% que apoyaría el PSOE". El Imparcial (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 1/2011, de 28 de enero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 28 January 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Ley 2/1987, de 16 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura (Law 2) (in Spanish). 16 March 1987. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Assembly of Extremadura election results, 24 May 2015. Badajoz" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Extremadura. 10 June 2015. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
6. "Assembly of Extremadura election results, 24 May 2015. Cáceres" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Extremadura. 10 June 2015. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
7. "Eleccions a la Asamblea de Extremadura (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 September 2017.