2015 Navarrese regional election

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2015 Navarrese regional election
Bandera de Navarra.svg
  2011 24 May 2015 2019  

All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered501,267 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 3.3%
Turnout342,173 (68.3%)
Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.9 pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Jose Javier Esparza 2014 (cropped).jpg Uxue Barkos 2016 (cropped).jpg Adolfo Araiz 2015b (cropped).jpg
Leader Javier Esparza Uxue Barkos Adolfo Araiz
Party UPN GBai EH Bildu
Leader since30 November 20143 October 201411 October 2014
Last election19 seats, 34.5%8 seats, 15.4% [lower-alpha 1] 7 seats, 13.3%
Seats won1598
Seat change Red Arrow Down.svg 4 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 1 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 1
Popular vote92,70553,49748,166
Percentage27.4%15.8%14.2%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg 7.1 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.4 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 0.9 pp

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Laura Perez 2015 (cropped).jpg Maria Chivite 2013 (cropped).jpg Ana Beltran (cropped).jpg
Leader Laura Pérez María Chivite Ana Beltrán
Party Podemos/Ahal Dugu PSN–PSOE PP
Leader since14 February 201519 October 20146 March 2015
Last electionDid not contest9 seats, 15.9%4 seats, 7.3%
Seats won772
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 7 Red Arrow Down.svg 2 Red Arrow Down.svg 2
Popular vote46,20745,16413,289
Percentage13.7%13.4%3.9%
SwingNew party Red Arrow Down.svg 2.5 pp Red Arrow Down.svg 3.4 pp

President before election

Yolanda Barcina
UPN

Elected President

Uxue Barkos
GBai

The 2015 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Contents

Regional president Yolanda Barcina, who had only came to power in 2011 after the establishment of a coalition government between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)—which proved to be short-lived, as Barcina herself expelled the PSN from the cabinet in 2012 over disagreements with then-PSN leader Roberto Jiménez—announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not seek re-election for a second term in office. This came after a legislature that proved to become the most unstable since the Spanish transition to democracy, with Barcina's minority government being unable to pass any budget following 2012, with one failed motion of no confidence in 2013 and the scare of a new one in 2014 over a number of corruption scandals besieging UPN. [1]

After a spell of 19 years in power since 1996, the election saw UPN's support plummet to a low in popular support unseen since 1987, whereas the PSN scored its worst result in history. Both parties, together with the support obtained by the then-ruling party in Spain, the People's Party (PP), commanded just 24 seats, two short of a majority, allowing an alliance of Geroa Bai (GBai), EH Bildu and Izquierda-Ezkerra (I–E) with external support from Podemos to access the regional government and have GBai's Uxue Barkos elected as new president.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. [2] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Navarrese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). [3]

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. [4]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 June 2015. [2] [4] [5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. [2]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in a coalition agreement between Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN), with UPN leader Yolanda Barcina being elected as President. [6] However, tension remained frequent between both coalition partners, [7] and in June 2012, PSN-PSOE leader and then-Vice President of Navarre Roberto Jiménez' questioning of a UPN's decision to pass an additional budget cut of 132 billion euros resulted in his expulsion from Barcina's Cabinet. The PSOE withdrew from the regional government, leaving UPN in minority. [8] [9] As a consequence, with the left-wing opposition commanding a majority in Parliament, political instability marked the remainder of the legislature, with the government being unable to pass its bills into law or to approve further budgets. [10]

The eruption of the Caja Navarra scandal in early 2013, involving President Barcina and other UPN high-ranking members, [11] [12] resulted in an ill-fated attempt by Bildu and Aralar / Nafarroa Bai to bring forward a censure motion against Yolanda Barcina, which had no realistic prospect of succeeding because of PSN abstention. [13] Additionally, dissent within Barcina's party materialized with party Vice President Alberto Catalán forcing a leadership election in March 2013 which Barcina was only narrowly able to win. [14] In February 2014, Finance Counselor Lourdes Goicoechea was accused of influence peddling within the regional Treasury, [15] [16] prompting Roberto Jiménez to threaten Barcina with a censure motion if she did not voluntarily call for a snap regional election. [17] [18] The PSOE national leadership, however, explicitly forbade its regional branch from reaching any kind of agreement that needed Bildu's support, and Jiménez backed down on his threat as a consequence. [19]

The PSN-PSOE was severely mauled in the same year European Parliament election, winning just 14.5% compared to the 31.5% it had won in 2009, and losing over half of its 2009 votes (31,629 compared to 63,848 in 2009). Roberto Jiménez resigned as PSN leader, being succeeded by María Chivite. [20] [21] The abertzale left represented under EH Bildu's flag, on the other hand, became the second political force of the community for the first time ever, with 20.2% of the vote.

Podemos' emergence in opinion polls marked the end of the legislature and into 2015. Yolanda Barcina, initially widely scheduled to stand for re-election, [22] announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not stand for a second term as President of Navarre. [23] A primary election was held on 29 November 2014, in which incumbent Local Government minister Javier Esparza defeated Alberto Catalán and became UPN candidate for the 2015 regional election.

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Navarre was officially dissolved on 31 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Navarre. [24] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.

Parliamentary composition in March 2015 [25]
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group UPN 1919
Socialists of Navarre Parliamentary Group PSN–PSOE 99
Bildu–Navarre Parliamentary Group Bildu 77
Aralar–Navarre Yes Parliamentary Group Aralar 66
People's Parliamentary Group of Navarre PP 44
Left Parliamentary Group IU 23
Batzarre 1
Mixed Group EAJ/PNV 12
Zabaltzen 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [4] [5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Votes (%)Seats
UPN Jose Javier Esparza 2014 (cropped).jpg Javier Esparza Conservatism
Christian democracy
Regionalism
34.48%19Yes check.svg [23]
[26]
PSN–PSOE
List
Maria Chivite 2013 (cropped).jpg María Chivite Social democracy 15.85%9X mark.svg [27]
[28]
GBai
List
Uxue Barkos 2016 (cropped).jpg Uxue Barkos Basque nationalism
Social democracy
15.41% [lower-alpha 1] 8X mark.svg [29]
[30]
EH Bildu
List
Adolfo Araiz 2015b (cropped).jpg Adolfo Araiz Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism
13.28%7X mark.svg [31]
PP
List
Ana Beltran (cropped).jpg Ana Beltrán Conservatism
Christian democracy
7.29%4X mark.svg [32]
I–E (n) Jose Miguel Nuin (cropped).jpg José Miguel Nuin Socialism
Communism
5.71%3X mark.svg
Podemos/
Ahal Dugu
List
Laura Perez 2015 (cropped).jpg Laura Pérez Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
New partyX mark.svg [33]
C's Portrait placeholder.svg Diego Paños Liberalism New partyX mark.svg [34]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Navarre.

Results

Summary of the 24 May 2015 Parliament of Navarre election results
NavarreParliamentDiagram2015.svg
Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeats
Votes %±pp Total+/−
Navarrese People's Union (UPN)92,70527.44–7.0415–4
Yes to the Future (GBai)153,49715.83+0.429+1
Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu)48,16614.25+0.978+1
We Can (Podemos/Ahal Dugu)46,20713.67New7+7
Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)45,16413.37–2.487–2
People's Party (PP)13,2893.93–3.362–2
Left (I–E (n))12,4823.69–2.022–1
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)9,9932.96New0±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)2,3040.68New0±0
Equo–European Green Party (Equo)2,1700.64New0±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)1,7400.51–0.170±0
Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK)1,7330.51–0.470±0
Navarrese Freedom (Ln)9550.28New0±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)8800.26–0.070±0
Blank ballots6,6101.96–0.56
Total337,89550±0
Valid votes337,89598.75–0.02
Invalid votes4,2781.25+0.02
Votes cast / turnout342,17368.26+0.83
Abstentions159,09431.74–0.83
Registered voters501,267
Sources [35] [36]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
UPN
27.44%
GBai
15.83%
EH Bildu
14.25%
Podemos
13.67%
PSN–PSOE
13.37%
PP
3.93%
I–E (n)
3.69%
C's
2.96%
Others
2.89%
Blank ballots
1.96%
Seats
UPN
30.00%
GBai
18.00%
EH Bildu
16.00%
Podemos
14.00%
PSN–PSOE
14.00%
PP
4.00%
I–E (n)
4.00%

Aftermath

Investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called. [2]

Investiture
Uxue Barkos (GBai)
Ballot →20 July 2015
Required majority →26 out of 50 Yes check.svg
Yes
26 / 50
No
  • UPN (15)
  • PP (2)
17 / 50
Abstentions
7 / 50
Absentees
0 / 50
Sources [36]

Notes

  1. 1 2 Results for NaBai 2011 in the 2011 election.
  2. 1 2 Within PP.
  3. 1 2 Results for Amaiur.

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References

Opinion poll sources
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  7. 1 2 "UPN se estanca y el cambio se abre paso con una participación histórica". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
  8. "Ligera recuperación de UPN (15-16) y leve caída de Geroa Bai (8) y Podemos (7-8)". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
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  10. "Encuesta preelectoral". inPactos (in Spanish). 25 May 2015.
  11. "Ficha técnica". inPactos (in Spanish). 14 May 2015.
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Other
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  5. 1 2 "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
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  7. "UPN will govern in minority after breaking with the PSN" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-06-15.
  8. "PSN-PSOE announces a Cabinet crisis in Navarre because of the budget cut" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-06-01.
  9. "The UPN-PSN agreement breaks apart before its 1st birthday" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2012-06-15.
  10. "The regional Parliament rejects the 2015 budgets and Navarre will run on an extended budget for a third time" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-11-25.
  11. "Caja Navarra paid up to 2,680 euros to UPN officials for one-hour meetings" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-03-07.
  12. "Caja Navarra's opaque bonuses trap Barcina" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-06-05.
  13. "PSN's abstention saves Yolanda Barcina from the censure motion" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2013-04-18.
  14. "Barcina wins absolute control over a divided UPN amidst the Caja Navarra's bonuses crisis" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2013-03-17.
  15. "Nieves blames the counselor for "meddling" and continued "interference"" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-02-12.
  16. "Former Treasury Director lit the fuse" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-02-13.
  17. "PSN announces a motion of censura if Barcina does not call for a snap election" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2014-02-12.
  18. "I told her that Foral Treasury data were not available for private use" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-02-14.
  19. "The PSOE renounces to a censure motion in Navarre to prevent needing Bildu's support" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-03-05.
  20. "Roberto Jiménez proposes a primary election and an extraordinary PSN party congress for this year, and announces he will not stand for election" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-05-27.
  21. "Senator María Chívite, new leader of the Navarrese Socialists" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-12-13.
  22. "Barcina will lead UPN into the next election" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-08-30.
  23. 1 2 "Barcina no concurrirá a la reelección en 2015". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Agencias. 10 November 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  24. "Decreto Foral 2/2015, de 30 de marzo, de la Presidenta de la Comunidad Foral de Navarra, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra". Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (77): 27320. 31 March 2015. ISSN   0212-033X.
  25. "Memoir 2014–2015" (PDF). www.parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre . Retrieved 23 July 2020.
  26. "Esparza derrota a Alberto Catalán y será el candidato de UPN al Gobierno de Navarra". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 29 November 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  27. "María Chivite será cabeza de lista del PSN en las elecciones 2015". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. EFE. 20 October 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  28. "La senadora María Chivite, elegida secretaria general del PSN-PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Pamplona. EFE. 13 December 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  29. "Barkos, única candidata para liderar lista de Geroa Bai al Parlamento". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. EFE. 19 September 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  30. "Uxue Barkos e Itziar Gomez, proclamadas candidatas de Geroa Bai". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). Pamplona. 3 October 2014. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  31. Encinas, Javier (8 October 2014). "Adolfo Araiz será el cabeza de lista de EH Bildu al Parlamento". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  32. Arnez, Beatriz (6 January 2015). "Ana Beltrán se perfila como la candidata del PP a las forales". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). Pamplona. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  33. "Laura Pérez, elegida secretaria general de Podemos Navarra con el 52,3% de los votos". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). Pamplona. Europa Press. 14 February 2015. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  34. "Diego Paños, cabeza de lista de Ciudadanos al Parlamento de Navarra". 20 minutos (in Spanish). Pamplona. Europa Press. 12 April 2015. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  35. "IX Legislature (2015-2019)". parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
  36. 1 2 "Elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Nafarroako Parlamentua) (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.