2007 Navarrese regional election

2007 Navarrese regional election

←  2003 27 May 2007 2011  →
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	471,653 1.5%
Turnout	348,039 (73.8%) 3.1 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Miguel Sanz Patxi Zabaleta Fernando Puras Party UPN NaBai PSN–PSOE Leader since 17 January 1995 16 September 2006 30 September 2006 Last election 23 seats, 41.5% 8 seats, 17.8% [lower-alpha 1] 11 seats, 22.5% Seats won 22 12 12 Seat change 1 4 1 Popular vote 139,132 77,872 74,158 Percentage 42.2% 23.6% 22.5% Swing 0.7 pp 5.8 pp 1.3 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Juan Cruz Alli Jon Erro Party CDN IUN/NEB Leader since 10 April 1995 February 2004 Last election 4 seats, 7.7% 4 seats, 8.8% Seats won 2 2 Seat change 2 2 Popular vote 14,412 14,337 Percentage 4.4% 4.3% Swing 3.3 pp 4.5 pp
President before election Miguel Sanz UPN Elected President Miguel Sanz UPN

The 2007 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 27 May 2007, to elect the 8th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The election saw the ruling coalition formed by the Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and Convergence of Democrats of Navarre (CDN) losing the absolute majority it had enjoyed in the previous legislature, with the newly-formed Navarre Yes (NaBai) alliance—formed by Aralar, Basque Solidarity (EA), the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and Assembly (Batzarre)—emerging as the second political force in the region, with the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) coming in a close third place with its best result since 1991. Negotiations for a coalition government between NaBai, PSN–PSOE and United Left (IUN) ensued, with PSN's candidate Fernando Puras being expected to head the cabinet, but the talks were thwarted by decision from the PSOE's national leadership. As a result, Miguel Sanz was able to be re-elected as president of Navarre for a fourth term thanks to the PSN not opposing his investiture.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. ^[2]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, with elections to the Parliament being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 25 May 2003, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 27 May 2007. ^{[1] [2] [3]}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a thirty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Navarre was officially dissolved on 3 April 2007, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Navarre. ^[4] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.

Parliamentary composition in April 2007 ^[5]

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group		UPN	23	23
	Socialists of the Parliament of Navarre Parliamentary Group		PSN–PSOE	11	11
	United Left of Navarre Parliamentary Group		IU	4	4
	Aralar Parliamentary Group		Aralar	4	4
	Convergence of Democrats of Navarre Parliamentary Group		CDN	4	4
	Basque Solidarity Parliamentary Group		EA	3	3
	Mixed Group		EAJ/PNV	1	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [3]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	UPN	List Navarrese People's Union (UPN)		Miguel Sanz	Conservatism Christian democracy Regionalism	41.48%	23	Y
	PSN–PSOE	List Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)		Fernando Puras	Social democracy	21.15%	11	N
	NaBai	List Aralar (Aralar) Basque Solidarity (EA) Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) Assembly (Batzarre)		Patxi Zabaleta	Basque nationalism Progressivism	17.82% [lower-alpha 1]	8	N
	IUN/NEB	List United Left of Navarre (IUN/NEB) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – Revolutionary Workers' Party (POR)		Jon Erro	Socialism Communism	8.77%	4	N
	CDN	List Convergence of Democrats of Navarre (CDN)		Juan Cruz Alli	Christian democracy Regionalism	7.65%	4	Y

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					CDN			PNV			Lead
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	—	73.8	42.2 22	22.5 12	4.3 2	[lower-alpha 2]	4.4 2	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	23.6 12	18.6
Ipsos/RTVE–FORTA [p 1] [p 2] [p 3]	27 May 2007	?	?	36.8 19/21	22.3 11/13	5.0 2	[lower-alpha 2]	3.3 1	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	26.9 14/16	9.9
Opina/El País [p 3] [p 4] [p 5]	14–17 May 2007	?	?	40.0 22	26.0 14	5.0 2	[lower-alpha 2]	1.4 0	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	23.5 12	14.0
Celeste-Tel/Terra [p 6] [p 7]	9–15 May 2007	?	?	39.6 21/22	20.1 11	6.9 3	[lower-alpha 2]	5.4 2/3	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	23.2 12/13	16.4
CIES/Diario de Navarra [p 3] [p 8] [p 9]	3–11 May 2007	1,505	76	41.2 21/23	22.1 11/12	5.7 2/3	[lower-alpha 2]	5.5 2/3	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	(6.9)	23.9 12/13	17.3
Opina/Cadena SER [p 10] [p 11]	8 May 2007	1,000	?	38.0 21	24.5 13	7.0 3	[lower-alpha 2]	3.0 0	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	23.0 13	13.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 12] [p 13] [p 14]	27 Apr–8 May 2007	500	?	43.3 22/24	23.4 12/13	6.8 3	[lower-alpha 2]	3.2 1	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	20.5 10/11	19.9
CIS [p 15] [p 16]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,189	?	38.7 20/21	18.6 10	6.4 3	[lower-alpha 2]	5.9 3	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	25.8 13/14	12.9
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 [p 3] [p 17]	2–5 May 2007	503	71.5	43.0 22/23	20.2 10/11	7.2 3/4	[lower-alpha 2]	4.8 2	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	3.6 0/2	20.5 10/11	22.5
Quor/Diario de Noticias [p 3] [p 18]	20–24 Apr 2007	1,100	?	37.0 20/21	25.7 12/13	7.0 3	[lower-alpha 2]	5.1 2	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	25.0 12	11.3
Intereconomía [p 19]	23 Mar 2007	1,006	?	46.0 25	20.0 11	7.0 3	[lower-alpha 2]	6.0 3	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	15.0 8	26.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 20] [p 21]	16–24 Nov 2006	?	?	? 21/23	? 10/11	? 3	[lower-alpha 2]	? 2	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	? 12/13	?
CIES/Diario de Navarra [p 3] [p 22]	25 Oct–6 Nov 2006	960	72	40.7 21	21.9 11	8.2 4	[lower-alpha 2]	7.4 3	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	20.9 11	18.8
			72	39.4 21	21.2 11	7.9 4	[lower-alpha 2]	7.2 3	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	5.6 2	17.8 9	18.2
CIES/Diario de Navarra [p 23]	18–30 May 2006	1,600	72	38.1 21	21.6 12	8.5 4	8.9 4	5.7 3	5.0 2	3.1 1	2.4 0	6.3 3	–	16.5
CIES/Diario de Navarra [p 24]	28 Sep–5 Oct 2005	800	?	41.0 22	25.2 13	8.1 4	10.1 5	5.5 2	6.4 3	3.0 1	[lower-alpha 3]	–	–	15.8
			?	39.2 22	24.1 13	7.5 3	8.9 4	5.3 2	6.2 3	2.1 0	[lower-alpha 3]	6.0 3	–	15.1
2004 EP election	13 Jun 2004	—	46.2	45.2 (25)	34.9 (19)	4.3 (2)	4.4 (2)	0.9 (0)	4.8 (2)	–	2.1 (0)	–	–	10.3
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	—	76.2	37.6 (20)	33.6 (18)	5.9 (3)	[lower-alpha 2]	1.4 (0)	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	18.0 (9)	4.0
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—	70.7	41.5 23	21.2 11	8.8 4	7.8 4	7.7 4	7.4 4	2.6 0	[lower-alpha 3]	–	–	20.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					CDN			?	N	Lead
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	—	30.1	16.0	3.1	[lower-alpha 2]	3.1	[lower-alpha 2]	16.9	—	24.6	13.2
CIS [p 15]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,189	21.1	12.4	2.9	[lower-alpha 2]	1.6	[lower-alpha 2]	12.5	35.2	8.8	8.6
2004 EP election	13 Jun 2004	—	19.7	15.1	1.9	1.9	0.4	2.1	–	—	53.1	4.6
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	—	27.8	24.9	4.4	[lower-alpha 2]	1.2	[lower-alpha 2]	13.4	—	22.4	2.9
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—	28.0	14.3	5.9	5.2	5.2	5.0	–	—	27.7	13.7

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				CDN		Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/Cadena SER [p 11]	8 May 2007	1,000	29.4	21.3	4.1	1.3	17.2	7.2	19.5	8.1
CIS [p 15]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,189	26.2	18.6	3.5	1.5	15.5	12.8	21.9	7.6

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				CDN		Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/Cadena SER [p 11]	8 May 2007	1,000	56.8	13.7	0.5	0.2	3.0	0.4	25.4	43.1
CIS [p 15]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,189	61.2	8.7	0.1	0.1	1.6	1.2	27.2	52.5

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Navarre.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Sanz UPN	Puras PSN	Erro IUN	Alli CDN	Zabaleta NaBai
Opina/Cadena SER [p 11]	8 May 2007	1,000	27.4	13.8	2.8	4.9	13.8	4.1	33.2	13.6

Results

← Summary of the 27 May 2007 Parliament of Navarre election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Navarrese People's Union (UPN)	139,132	42.19	+0.71	22	–1
	Navarre Yes (NaBai)1	77,872	23.62	+5.80	12	+4
	Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)	74,158	22.49	+1.34	12	+1
	Convergence of Democrats of Navarre (CDN)	14,412	4.37	–3.28	2	–2
	United Left of Navarre (IUN/NEB)	14,337	4.35	–4.43	2	–2
	Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK)	4,705	1.43	New	0	±0
	Carlist Party (EKA)	541	0.16	–0.17	0	±0
Blank ballots		4,581	1.39	–0.99
Total		329,738			50	±0
Valid votes		329,738	94.74	+1.22
Invalid votes		18,301	5.26	–1.22
Votes cast / turnout		348,039	73.79	+3.09
Abstentions		123,614	26.21	–3.09
Registered voters		471,653
Sources [6] [7] [8]
Footnotes: 1 Navarre Yes results are compared to the combined totals of Aralar, Basque Solidarity–Basque Nationalist Party and Assembly in the 2003 election.

Popular vote UPN   42.19% NaBai   23.62% PSN–PSOE   22.49% CDN   4.37% IUN/NEB   4.35% RCN/NOK   1.43% EKA   0.16% Blank ballots   1.39%

Seats UPN   44.00% NaBai   24.00% PSN–PSOE   24.00% CDN   4.00% IUN/NEB   4.00%

Aftermath

Further information: Fourth government of Miguel Sanz

Investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a thirty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called. ^[1]

Investiture Miguel Sanz (UPN)
Ballot →		10 August 2007 [lower-alpha 4]	11 August 2007 [lower-alpha 4]
Required majority →		26 out of 50 N	Simple Y
	Yes • UPN (22) • CDN (2)	24 / 50	24 / 50
	No • NaBai (12) • PSN (11) (on 10 Aug) • IUN (2)	25 / 50	14 / 50
	Abstentions • PSN (1) (on 12 Aug)	0 / 50	1 / 50
	Absentees	0 / 50	0 / 50
Sources [8]

Notes

1. Results for Aralar (7.83%, 4 seats), EA–PNV (7.43%, 4 seats) and Batzarre (2.56%, 0 seats) in the 2003 election.
2. Within NaBai.
3. Within EA.
4. 1 PSN MP cast an invalid ballot in the 10 August vote; 11 PSN MPs cast blank ballots on 12 August.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Navarra y Baleares podrían cambiar de gobierno". Expansión (in Spanish). 27 May 2007.
2. "Sondeo de EiTB". Auzolan (in Spanish). 27 May 2007. Archived from the original on 27 September 2007.
3. ""Elecciones 2007: Análisis en caliente"" (PDF). Auzolan (in Spanish). 11 June 2007.
4. "Rajoy saca peor nota que Zapatero en los bastiones electorales del PP". El País (in Spanish). 20 May 2007.
5. "UPN se tambalea en Navarra por el ascenso de PSN y Nafarroa Bai". El País (in Spanish). 20 May 2007.
6. "Vuelco electoral en Navarra, Baleares y Canarias y aplastante victoria del PP en Madrid". Terra (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 20 May 2007. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
7. "Encuestas autonómicas". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 11 May 2009. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
8. "UPN-CDN tienen difícil repetir la mayoría y hay casi un empate técnico con la oposición". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 19 May 2007. Archived from the original on 27 September 2007.
9. "Sondeos electorales CIES" (PDF). CIES (in Spanish). 22 May 2011.
10. "El PP navarro, UPN, perderá la mayoría absoluta". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
11. "Informe Navarra. Mayo 2007". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 May 2007. Archived from the original on 26 May 2007.
12. "Sondeo de Sigma Dos: El PP renovaría siete autonomías y podría perder dos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
13. "Elecciones 27-M / Sondeo El Mundo-Sigma Dos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
14. ""Sigma-dos" otorga hasta 24 escaños a UPN y "Opina" los reduce a 21". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 13 May 2007. Archived from the original on 27 September 2007.
15. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2007. Comunidad Foral de Navarra (Estudio nº 2698. Abril-Mayo 2007)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2007.
16. "La aritmética juega en contra del PSOE sólo en las islas Canarias". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
17. "UPN y CDN perderían la mayoría absoluta en Navarra por un solo escaño". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 8 May 2007.
18. "UPN y CDN perderían la mayoría absoluta en el Gobierno navarro". Diario Vasco (in Spanish). 20 May 2007.
19. "Primera encuesta electora: mayoría absoluta UPN-CDN". Navarra Confidencial (in Spanish). 23 March 2007.
20. "El PP y el PSOE mantendrán sus gobiernos autonómicos, aunque los socialistas bajan". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.
21. "El voto en las comunidades. Elecciones autonómicas 2007" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.
22. "UPN y CDN pierden la mayoría absoluta (24) y el PSN continúa en su suelo electoral (11)". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 12 November 2006. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015.
23. "Estudio sobre la actualidad de Navarra 2006" (PDF). CIES (in Spanish). 12 June 2006.
24. "UPN y CDN perderían la mayoría si hoy hubiera elecciones forales". Foro Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 9 October 2005. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 28 February 2015.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra (Organic Law 13) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
2. Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Law 16) (in Spanish). 17 December 1986. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
3. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
4. "Decreto Foral 4/2007, de 2 de abril, del Presidente del Gobierno de Navarra, por el que se convocan elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (80): 14497. 3 April 2007. ISSN   0212-033X.
5. "Memoir 2006–2007" (PDF). www.parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre . Retrieved 23 July 2020.
6. "VII Legislature (2007-2011)". parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
7. "Parliament of Navarre election results, 27 May 2007" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Navarre. 1 August 2007. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
8. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Nafarroako Parlamentua) (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.