2007 Aragonese regional election

2007 Aragonese regional election

←  2003 27 May 2007 2011  →
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,017,085 0.2%
Turnout	676,491 (66.5%) 3.9 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Marcelino Iglesias Gustavo Alcalde José Ángel Biel Party PSOE PP PAR Leader since 15 February 1995 18 May 2001 2 June 2000 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza Last election 27 seats, 37.9% 22 seats, 30.7% 8 seats, 11.2% Seats won 30 23 9 Seat change 3 1 1 Popular vote 276,415 208,642 81,135 Percentage 41.1% 31.1% 12.1% Swing 3.2 pp 0.4 pp 0.9 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Chesús Bernal Adolfo Barrena Party CHA IU Leader since 29 June 1986 May 2002 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Last election 9 seats, 13.7% 1 seat, 3.1% Seats won 4 1 Seat change 5 0 Popular vote 54,752 27,440 Percentage 8.1% 4.1% Swing 5.6 pp 1.0 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon
President before election Marcelino Iglesias PSOE Elected President Marcelino Iglesias PSOE

The 2007 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 27 May 2007, to elect the 7th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which had ruled Aragon since the 1999 election, saw an increase of three seats and obtained its best result since the 1983 election in terms of votes received. The People's Party (PP) also managed to slightly increase its vote share and gained one seat. On the other hand, the Aragonese Union (CHA) lost ground for the first time, losing 5 of its 9 seats and falling behind the Aragonese Party (PAR), which regained third place and increased its vote share for the first time since the 1987 election. United Left (IU) held its single seat and increased its vote share for the first time since 1995.

The PSOE and PAR renewed their coalition administration for a third consecutive time, resulting in Marcelino Iglesias being re-elected as regional President for a third term in office.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one). ^{[1] [2]}

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats: ^[3]

Seats	Constituencies
35	Zaragoza
18	Huesca
14	Teruel

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. ^[4]

Election date

After legal amendments in 2007, fixed-term mandates were abolished, instead allowing the term of the Cortes of Aragon to expire after an early dissolution. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 25 May 2003, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 25 May 2007. The election decree was required to be published in the BOA no later than 1 May 2007, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 24 June 2007. ^{[1] [2] [5]}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[1]

The election to the Cortes of Aragon was officially triggered on 3 April 2007 after the publication of the election decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 27 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 21 June. ^[3]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the time of the election call. ^[6]

Parliamentary composition in April 2007

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	27	27
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	22	22
	Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group		CHA	9	9
	Aragonese Parliamentary Group		PAR	8	8
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		IU	1	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [5]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Marcelino Iglesias	Social democracy	37.94%	27	Y
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Gustavo Alcalde	Conservatism Christian democracy	30.73%	22	N
	CHA	List Aragonese Union (CHA)		Chesús Bernal	Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism	13.71%	9	N
	PAR	List Aragonese Party (PAR)		José Ángel Biel	Regionalism Centrism	11.18%	8	Y
	IU	List United Left of Aragon (IU)		Adolfo Barrena	Socialism Communism	3.06%	1	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout						Lead
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	—	66.5	41.1 30	31.1 23	8.1 4	12.1 9	4.1 1	10.0
Ipsos/RTVE–FORTA [p 1]	27 May 2007	?	?	? 31/34	? 20/23	? 4/5	? 6/7	? 2/3	?
C&J/El Periódico [p 2] [p 3]	20 May 2007	?	?	39.4 27	34.0 23	10.9 7	12.7 9	3.0 1	5.4
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón [p 3]	20 May 2007	?	?	37.8 26	33.1 23	11.0 8	12.8 9	3.6 1	4.7
Celeste-Tel/Terra [p 4] [p 5]	9–15 May 2007	?	?	41.2 29/30	28.4 21/22	11.5 7	10.6 8	4.2 1	12.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 6] [p 7]	27 Apr–8 May 2007	850	?	41.4 28/30	32.0 22/24	10.9 7	9.3 7	3.4 1	9.4
CIS [p 8] [p 9]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,538	?	42.0 30/31	27.9 21	11.9 6/7	10.7 8	4.3 1	14.1
A+M/DGA [p 10] [p 11]	3–11 Feb 2007	2,586	67.0	36.1 27	31.0 23	15.8 8	11.8 8	4.2 1	5.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 12] [p 13]	16–24 Nov 2006	?	?	? 27/29	? 24/26	? 6	? 7	? 1	?
2004 EP election	13 Jun 2004	—	47.3	45.8 (33)	40.0 (30)	6.1 (3)	2.9 (0)	3.1 (1)	5.8
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	—	77.0	41.3 (31)	36.5 (27)	12.1 (6)	4.7 (3)	2.8 (0)	4.8
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—	70.4	37.9 27	30.7 22	13.7 9	11.2 8	3.1 1	7.2

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						?	N	Lead
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	—	27.7	21.0	5.5	8.2	2.8	—	32.0	6.7
CIS [p 8]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,538	24.5	11.2	3.3	4.4	2.1	41.6	10.6	13.3
A+M/DGA [p 10]	3–11 Feb 2007	2,586	24.2	16.6	5.7	4.5	2.9	29.6	11.5	7.6
2004 EP election	13 Jun 2004	—	21.8	19.1	2.9	1.4	1.5	—	52.1	2.7
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	—	32.0	28.3	9.4	3.6	2.2	—	22.0	3.7
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—	26.9	21.8	9.7	7.9	2.2	—	28.7	5.1

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS [p 8]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,538	36.3	16.6	4.5	6.0	2.3	9.4	24.8	19.7

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS [p 8]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,538	53.7	8.0	0.5	1.6	0.0	0.9	35.2	45.7

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Iglesias PSOE	Alcalde PP	Bernal CHA	Biel PAR	Barrena IU
CIS [p 8]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,538	37.0	11.4	3.9	7.2	1.7	1.7	37.0	25.6
A+M/DGA [p 10]	3–11 Feb 2007	2,586	35.8	10.9	5.0	3.6	1.9	3.4	38.8	24.9

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 27 May 2007 Cortes of Aragon election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	276,415	41.14	+3.20	30	+3
	People's Party (PP)	208,642	31.06	+0.33	23	+1
	Aragonese Party (PAR)	81,135	12.08	+0.90	9	+1
	Aragonese Union (CHA)	54,752	8.15	–5.56	4	–5
	United Left of Aragon (IU)	27,440	4.08	+1.02	1	±0
	The Greens–Federation of Independents of Aragon (LV–FIA)1	4,417	0.66	+0.06	0	±0
	Aragon United Citizens Party (pCUA)	2,463	0.37	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	1,105	0.16	–0.02	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	577	0.09	+0.04	0	±0
Blank ballots		14,890	2.22	+0.13
Total		671,836			67	±0
Valid votes		671,836	99.31	–0.05
Invalid votes		4,655	0.69	+0.05
Votes cast / turnout		676,491	66.51	–3.85
Abstentions		340,594	33.49	+3.85
Registered voters		1,017,085
Sources [6] [7] [8]
Footnotes: 1 The Greens–Federation of Independents of Aragon results are compared to The Greens–SOS Nature totals in the 2003 election.

Popular vote PSOE   41.14% PP   31.06% PAR   12.08% CHA   8.15% IU   4.08% Others   1.27% Blank ballots   2.22%

Seats PSOE   44.78% PP   34.33% PAR   13.43% CHA   5.97% IU   1.49%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP		PAR		CHA		IU
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Huesca	44.3	9	29.2	6	12.7	2	7.5	1	3.1	−
Teruel	36.1	6	31.1	5	19.1	3	5.9	−	5.0	−
Zaragoza	41.2	15	31.5	12	10.6	4	8.7	3	4.2	1
Total	41.1	30	31.1	23	12.1	9	8.1	4	4.1	1
Sources [7] [8] [6]

Aftermath

Investiture Marcelino Iglesias (PSOE)
Ballot →		5 July 2007
Required majority →		34 out of 67 Y
	Yes • PSOE (30) • PAR (9)	39 / 67
	No • PP (23) • CHA (4) • IU (1)	28 / 67
	Abstentions	0 / 67
	Absentees	0 / 67
Sources [6]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Sólo Navarra y Baleares podrían cambiar de gobierno, según el sondeo de RTVE y FORTA". Europa Press (in Spanish). 27 May 2007.
2. "El PSOE volverá a ganar y el PAR le disputará a CHA la tercera plaza". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 20 May 2007.
3. "El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones y podría pactar con PAR o CHA". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 20 May 2007.
4. "Vuelco electoral en Navarra, Baleares y Canarias y aplastante victoria del PP en Madrid". Terra (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 20 May 2007. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
5. "Encuestas autonómicas". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 11 May 2009. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
6. "Sondeo de Sigma Dos: El PSOE mantendría sus comunidades si revalida las coaliciones". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 May 2007.
7. "Elecciones 27-M / Sondeo El Mundo-Sigma Dos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
8. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2007. CA de Aragón (Estudio nº 2687. Abril-Mayo 2007)". CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2007.
9. "La aritmética juega en contra del PSOE sólo en las islas Canarias". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
10. "La intención de voto de los aragoneses se mantiene estable en relación a las elecciones autonómicas de 2003". Aragón Hoy (in Spanish). 12 March 2007.
11. "El voto a las Cortes sigue estable pero el PP gana un diputado". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 13 March 2007.
12. "El PP y el PSOE mantendrán sus gobiernos autonómicos, aunque los socialistas bajan". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.
13. "El voto en las comunidades. Elecciones autonómicas 2007" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 20 April 2007. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
2. Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Law 2) (in Spanish). 12 February 1987. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
3. "Decreto de 2 de abril de 2007, de la Presidencia del Gobierno de Aragón, por el que se convocan elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (80): 14481–14482. 3 April 2007. ISSN   0212-033X.
4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
5. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
6. "Elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 December 2023.
7. "Cortes of Aragon election results, 27 May 2007" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Aragon. 18 June 2007. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
8. "Aragon Electoral Archive. Cortes of Aragon election, 2007. Autonomous Community of Aragon". servicios.aragon.es (in Spanish). Government of Aragon. Retrieved 26 September 2017.