2003 Navarrese regional election

2003 Navarrese regional election

←  1999 25 May 2003 2007  →
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	464,826 0.7%
Turnout	328,609 (70.7%) 4.5 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Miguel Sanz Juan José Lizarbe Félix Taberna Party UPN PSN–PSOE IUN/NEB Leader since 17 January 1995 18 December 1997 1991 Last election 22 seats, 41.4% 11 seats, 20.3% 3 seats, 6.9% Seats won 23 11 4 Seat change 1 0 1 Popular vote 127,460 65,003 26,962 Percentage 41.5% 21.2% 8.8% Swing 0.1 pp 0.9 pp 1.9 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Patxi Zabaleta Juan Cruz Alli Begoña Errazti Party Aralar CDN EA–PNV Leader since 30 June 2001 10 April 1995 1995 Last election Did not contest 3 seats, 6.9% 3 seats, 5.4% Seats won 4 4 4 Seat change 4 1 1 Popular vote 24,068 23,516 22,824 Percentage 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% Swing New party 0.8 pp 2.0 pp
President before election Miguel Sanz UPN Elected President Miguel Sanz UPN

The 2003 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 25 May 2003, to elect the 6th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. ^[2]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, with elections to the Parliament being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 13 June 1999, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 25 May 2003. ^{[1] [2] [3]}

After legal amendments in 2001, the president was granted the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a thirty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. ^[1]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [3]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	UPN	List Navarrese People's Union (UPN)		Miguel Sanz	Conservatism Christian democracy Regionalism	41.37%	22	Y
	PSN–PSOE	List Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)		Juan José Lizarbe	Social democracy	20.28%	11	N
	IUN/NEB	List United Left of Navarre (IUN/NEB) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – Revolutionary Workers' Party (POR) – Workers' Revolutionary Party–Revolutionary Left (PRT–IR)		Félix Taberna	Socialism Communism	6.88%	3	N
	CDN	List Convergence of Democrats of Navarre (CDN)		Juan Cruz Alli	Christian democracy Regionalism	6.86%	3	N
	EA–PNV	List Basque Solidarity (EA) Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)		Begoña Errazti	Basque nationalism Social democracy Christian democracy	5.44%	3	N
	Aralar	List Aralar (Aralar)		Patxi Zabaleta	Basque nationalism Left-wing nationalism Socialism	New party		N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					CDN		PNV			Lead
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—	70.7	41.5 23	21.2 11	–	8.8 4	7.7 4	7.4 4	[a]	2.6 0	7.8 4	20.3
Sigma Dos/Antena 3 [p 1]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 24/25	? 12/13	–	? 5	? 4	? 4	[a]	–	–	?
Ipsos–Eco/RTVE [p 2]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 24	? 11/13	–	? 4/5	–	–	[a]	–	–	?
CIES/Diario de Navarra [p 3] [p 4]	7–13 May 2003	1,600	65	43.6 22/24	25.5 12/14	–	8.1 4/5	7.5 3/4	6.7 3/4	[a]	1.5 0	6.5 3	18.1
CIS [p 5] [p 6]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	829	67.1	38.3 24	20.7 13	–	8.6 5	6.3 3	8.4 5	[a]	–	–	17.6
CIES/Diario de Navarra [p 7]	17–28 Feb 2003	1,212	65	40.6 22	23.7 12	10.4 5	6.4 3	5.7 3	7.4 4	[a]	2.1 0	3.2 1	16.9
Navcomtel/Parliament of Navarre [p 8] [p 9]	21–27 Oct 2002	1,600	?	41.2 22/23	22.5 11/12	13.0 6/7	7.5 3/4	5.6 2/3	4.9 2	[a]	1.1 0	3.3 1	18.7
CIS [p 10] [p 11] [p 12]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	443	67.3	43.9 25	21.0 12	8.7 4	8.6 4	4.8 2	5.1 2	3.3 1	–	–	22.9
CIES/Parliament of Navarre [p 13] [p 14]	24 Sep–2 Oct 2001	1,300	68	44.2 23/24	24.0 12/13	8.1 4	6.6 3	5.4 2	6.4 3	[a]	1.2 0	3.8 2	20.2
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	—	66.1	49.9 (29)	27.3 (15)	–	7.6 (4)	2.9 (0)	6.8 (2)	2.2 (0)	–	–	22.6
1999 regional election	13 Jun 1999	—	66.2	41.4 22	20.3 11	15.6 8	6.9 3	6.9 3	5.4 3	[a]	[b]	–	21.1

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					CDN		PNV			?	N	Lead
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—	28.0	14.3	–	5.9	5.2	5.0	[a]	1.7	5.2	—	27.7	13.7
CIS [p 5]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	829	18.2	11.8	–	4.9	1.4	4.3	[a]	–	–	43.4	9.7	6.4
Navcomtel/Parliament of Navarre [p 8]	21–27 Oct 2002	1,600	24.8	13.5	8.1	4.8	3.6	3.1	[a]	0.6	2.0	32.2	3.9	11.3
CIS [p 10]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	443	19.2	13.3	2.0	3.8	0.7	1.4	0.9	–	–	41.0	14.2	5.9
CIES/Parliament of Navarre [p 14]	24 Sep–2 Oct 2001	1,300	21.4	11.8	4.5	4.8	2.8	4.0	[a]	0.7	1.7	34.5	10.3	9.6
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	—	33.1	18.1	–	5.1	1.9	3.1	1.4	–	–	—	32.8	15.0
1999 regional election	13 Jun 1999	—	27.4	13.4	10.3	4.6	4.6	3.6	[a]	[b]	–	—	33.0	14.0

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				CDN		Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS [p 5]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	829	24.5	18.1	6.5	2.4	5.1	5.9	37.5	6.4

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				CDN		Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS [p 5]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	829	60.9	9.9	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0	28.6	51.0

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Navarre.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Sanz UPN	Lizarbe PSN	Taberna IUN	Alli CDN	Errazti EA
CIS [p 5]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	829	25.1	13.1	5.0	8.1	5.2	3.0	40.5	12.0

Results

← Summary of the 25 May 2003 Parliament of Navarre election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Navarrese People's Union (UPN)	127,460	41.48	+0.11	23	+1
	Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)	65,003	21.15	+0.87	11	±0
	United Left of Navarre (IUN/NEB)	26,962	8.77	+1.89	4	+1
	Aralar (Aralar)	24,068	7.83	New	4	+4
	Convergence of Democrats of Navarre (CDN)	23,516	7.65	+0.79	4	+1
	Basque Solidarity–Basque Nationalist Party (EA–PNV)	22,824	7.43	+1.99	4	+1
	Assembly (Batzarre)	7,873	2.56	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	1,290	0.42	New	0	±0
	Carlist Party (EKA–PC)	1,017	0.33	+0.04	0	±0
	Basque Citizens (EH)	n/a	n/a	–15.58	0	–8
Blank ballots		7,304	2.38	+0.03
Total		307,317			50	±0
Valid votes		307,317	93.52	–5.65
Invalid votes		21,292	6.48	+5.65
Votes cast / turnout		328,609	70.70	+4.45
Abstentions		136,217	29.30	–4.45
Registered voters		464,826
Sources [4] [5]

Popular vote UPN   41.48% PSN–PSOE   21.15% IUN/NEB   8.77% Aralar   7.83% CDN   7.65% EA–PNV   7.43% Batzarre   2.56% Others   0.75% Blank ballots   2.38%

Seats UPN   46.00% PSN–PSOE   22.00% IUN/NEB   8.00% Aralar   8.00% CDN   8.00% EA–PNV   8.00%

Aftermath

After legal amendments in 2001, investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a thirty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called. ^[1]

Investiture Miguel Sanz (UPN)
Ballot →		26 June 2003
Required majority →		26 out of 50 Y
	Yes • UPN (23) • CDN (4)	27 / 50
	No • PSN (11) • IUN (4) • Aralar (4) • EA–PNV (4)	23 / 50
	Abstentions	0 / 50
	Absentees	0 / 50
Sources [5]

Notes

1. Within EA.
2. Within EH.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El sondeo de Sigma Dos determina una lucha codo a codo entre populares y socialistas en Madrid". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 May 2003. Archived from the original on 25 May 2019. Retrieved 19 May 2019.
2. "Sondeo a pie de urna de Ipsos Eco Consulting para TVE". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 May 2003. Archived from the original on 7 December 2017. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
3. "UPN (22-24) y PSN (12-14) suben, Aralar entra con 3 y CDN (3-4) será clave para el Gobierno". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 18 May 2003.
4. "Sondeos electorales CIES" (PDF). CIES (in Spanish). 22 May 2011.
5. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2003. Comunidad Foral de Navarra (Estudio nº 2495. Marzo-Abril 2003)". CIS (in Spanish). 17 May 2003.
6. "La guerra pasa factura electoral al PP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 18 May 2003.
7. "UPN mantiene 22 parlamentarios y el PSN sube de 11 a 12 escaños". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 16 March 2003.
8. "Informe de la Actualidad en Navarra. Noviembre, 2002" (PDF). n@vcomtel (in Spanish). 12 November 2002.
9. Muez, Mikel (13 November 2002). "Una encuesta del Parlamento navarro concluye que Batasuna recupera apoyos". El País (in Spanish).
10. "Instituciones y autonomías, II. Comunidad Foral de Navarra (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
11. "El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
12. "El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
13. "UPN, cerca de la mayoría absoluta y Batasuna pierde 4 escaños". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 17 October 2001.
14. "Estudio sobre la Actualidad de Navarra. Octubre, 2001" (PDF). CIES (in Spanish). 16 October 2001.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra (Organic Law 13) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
2. Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Law 16) (in Spanish). 17 December 1986. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
3. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
4. "VI Legislature (2003-2007)". parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
5. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Nafarroako Parlamentua) (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.