2015 Murcian regional election

2015 Murcian regional election

←  2011 24 May 2015 2019  →
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,027,213 5.4%
Turnout	652,979 (63.6%) 4.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Pedro Antonio Sánchez Rafael González Tovar Óscar Urralburu Party PP PSOE Podemos Leader since 5 March 2015 23 March 2012 1 April 2015 Leader's seat Three Three Three Last election 33 seats, 58.8% 11 seats, 23.9% Did not contest Seats won 22 13 6 Seat change 11 2 6 Popular vote 239,011 153,231 84,577 Percentage 37.4% 23.9% 13.2% Swing 21.4 pp 0.0 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Miguel Sánchez José Antonio Pujante Party C's Ganar la Región de Murcia Leader since 16 March 2015 April 2005 Leader's seat Three Three Last election Did not contest 1 seat, 7.8% [lower-alpha 1] Seats won 4 0 Seat change 4 1 Popular vote 80,459 30,761 Percentage 12.6% 4.8% Swing New party 3.0 pp
Constituency results map for the Regional Assembly of Murcia
President before election Alberto Garre PP Elected President Pedro Antonio Sánchez PP

The 2015 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1]

Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). ^[2] The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

• District One (comprising the municipalities of Lorca, Aguilas, Puerto Lumbreras, Totana, Alhama de Murcia, Librilla, Aledo and Mazarrón).
• District Two (comprising the municipalities of Cartagena, La Unión, Fuente Alamo de Murcia, Torre-Pacheco, San Javier, San Pedro del Pinatar and Los Alcázares).
• District Three (comprising the municipalities of Murcia, Alcantarilla, Beniel, Molina de Segura, Alguazas, Las Torres de Cotillas, Lorquí, Ceutí, Cieza, Abarán, Blanca, Archena, Ricote, Ulea, Villanueva del Río Segura, Ojós, Fortuna, Abanilla and Santomera).
• District Four (comprising the municipalities of Caravaca, Cehegín, Calasparra, Moratalla, Bullas, Pliego, Mula, Albudeite and Campos del Río).
• District Five (comprising the municipalities of Yecla and Jumilla).

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of one seat, with the remaining 40 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations. ^[3]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 24 May 2015. ^{[1] [3] [4]}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. ^[1]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[3] [4]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Pedro Antonio Sánchez	Conservatism Christian democracy	58.79%	33	Y	[5]
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Rafael González Tovar	Social democracy	23.88%	11	N	[6]
	Ganar.IP	List United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia (IU–V–RM) Building the Left–Socialist Alternative (CLI–AS)		José Antonio Pujante	Socialism Communism Eco-socialism	7.83% [lower-alpha 1]	1	N	[7] [8]
	Podemos	List We Can (Podemos)		Óscar Urralburu	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	New party		N	[9]
	C's	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)		Miguel Sánchez	Liberalism	New party		N	[10]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	63.6	37.4 22	23.9 13	4.8 0	1.6 0	13.2 6	12.6 4	13.5
GAD3/Antena 3 [p 1]	11–22 May 2015	?	?	? 21/23	? 12/13	–	–	? 4/6	? 5/6	?
GAD3/ABC [p 2]	17 May 2015	?	?	? 22	? 12/13	–	–	? 4/5	? 6	?
NC Report/La Razón [p 3] [p 4] [p 5]	17 May 2015	400	?	40.2 20/21	21.6 11/12	4.8 0	1.8 0	12.3 6/7	14.2 7/8	18.6
CEMOP [p 6] [p 7]	4–10 May 2015	800	68.4	35.2 18/20	21.3 11	5.2 0	1.1 0	13.8 5	21.8 9/11	13.4
CIS [p 8] [p 9]	23 Mar–19 Apr 2015	1,492	?	41.0 21/22	24.9 11/12	5.0 0	1.1 0	10.4 6	13.8 6	16.1
NC Report/La Razón [p 10] [p 11] [p 12]	4–16 Mar 2015	400	?	39.1 20/22	20.3 9/11	5.1 0/1	2.3 0	14.2 6/7	15.6 7/8	18.8
CEMOP [p 13] [p 14] [p 15] [p 16]	2 Feb–6 Mar 2015	2,944	?	37.6 20	21.2 10	5.4 1	3.1 0	15.7 8	15.1 6	16.4
CEMOP [p 17]	2 Feb–1 Mar 2015	2,667	?	39.2	21.1	5.4	3.4	16.3	13.1	18.1
CEMOP [p 18] [p 19]	2–20 Feb 2015	1,996	?	39.3	21.1	5.4	3.1	17.3	12.5	18.2
CEMOP [p 20] [p 21] [p 22]	2–13 Feb 2015	1,458	?	39.4 21/22	21.9 10/11	5.8 1	3.1 0	17.5 8/9	11.4 3/4	17.5
Llorente & Cuenca [p 23]	31 Oct 2014	?	?	? 23/26	? 9/11	? 1/2	? 2	? 3/7	–	?
PP [p 24]	19 Oct 2014	?	?	? 21/24	? 4/5	? 0	? 7/8	? 10/13	–	?
CEMOP [p 25] [p 26]	17–30 Sep 2014	800	63.3	42.2	18.3	9.4	6.1	17.3	4.2	23.9
Ganemos RM [p 27]	26 Sep 2014	?	?	? 21/22	? 9/10	[lower-alpha 2]	? 3	? 12	–	?
2014 EP election [p 28]	25 May 2014	—	42.5	37.5 23	20.7 11	9.8 4	9.5 4	7.6 2	3.6 0	16.8
TNS Demoscopia/CEMOP [p 29] [p 30]	12–16 May 2014	700	60.9	40.9	20.1	14.4	11.9	–	–	20.8
Sigma Dos/La Verdad [p 31] [p 32]	8–9 Apr 2014	1,000	?	50.1 25/26	25.8 12/13	10.1 3	7.7 3	–	–	24.3
Celeste-Tel/La Verdad [p 33]	24 Nov 2013	?	?	45.1 22/23	27.3 13/14	12.7 4/5	12.2 4/5	–	–	17.8
NC Report/La Razón [p 34] [p 35]	15 Oct–12 Nov 2013	?	?	? 24/25	? 12/13	? 4/5	? 3/4	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón [p 36] [p 37] [p 38]	15 Apr–10 May 2013	200	?	48.1 23/24	22.0 12/13	? 4/5	? 4/5	–	–	26.1
TNS Demoscopia/CEMOP [p 39] [p 40]	24–30 Jan 2013	802	60.2	41.8	27.1	14.3	12.1	–	–	14.7
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	74.1	64.2	21.0	5.7	6.3	–	–	43.2
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—	67.9	58.8 33	23.9 11	7.8* 1	4.5 0	–	–	34.9
(*) Results for United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	239,011	37.35	–21.44	22	–11
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	153,231	23.95	+0.07	13	+2
	We Can (Podemos)	84,577	13.22	New	6	+6
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	80,459	12.57	New	4	+4
	Winning the Region of Murcia.Plural Left (IU–V–RM–CLI–AS)1	30,761	4.81	–3.02	0	–1
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	10,422	1.63	–2.87	0	±0
	Citizens' Movement of Cartagena (MCC)	8,793	1.37	New	0	±0
	Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)	6,772	1.06	New	0	±0
	Vox (Vox)	5,427	0.85	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	4,663	0.73	New	0	±0
	Blank Seats (EB)	2,002	0.31	New	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	1,422	0.22	New	0	±0
	Citizens' Democratic Renewal Movement (RED)	912	0.14	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	763	0.12	New	0	±0
	Centre and Democracy Forum (CyD)	532	0.08	–0.05	0	±0
	Spain on the Move (LEM)	88	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		10,057	1.57	–0.59
Total		639,892			45	±0
Valid votes		639,892	98.00	–0.37
Invalid votes		13,087	2.00	+0.37
Votes cast / turnout		652,979	63.57	–4.34
Abstentions		374,234	36.43	+4.34
Registered voters		1,027,213
Sources [11] [12] [13]
Footnotes: 1 Winning the Region of Murcia.Plural Left results are compared to United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia totals in the 2011 election.

Popular vote PP   37.35% PSOE   23.95% Podemos   13.22% C's   12.57% Ganar.IP   4.81% UPyD   1.63% MCC   1.37% CCD   1.06% Others   2.47% Blank ballots   1.57%

Seats PP   48.89% PSOE   28.89% Podemos   13.33% C's   8.89%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		Podemos		C's
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
One	41.6	4	28.1	2	10.1	1	7.4	−
Two	35.2	5	21.0	3	14.7	2	13.4	1
Three	37.1	10	21.5	5	14.6	3	14.4	3
Four	34.5	2	38.9	2	8.3	−	9.4	−
Five	41.7	1	26.1	1	8.6	−	9.7	−
Total	37.4	22	23.9	13	13.2	6	12.6	4
Sources [11] [12] [13]

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture Pedro Antonio Sánchez (PP)
Ballot →		30 June 2015
Required majority →		23 out of 45 Y
	Yes • PP (22) • C's (4)	26 / 45
	No • PSOE (13) • Podemos (6)	19 / 45
	Abstentions	0 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45
Sources [13]

2017 investiture

Investiture Fernando López Miras (PP)
Ballot →		27 April 2017	29 April 2017
Required majority →		23 out of 45 N	Simple Y
	Yes • PP (22)	22 / 45	22 / 45
	No • PSOE (13) • Podemos (6) • C's (4) (on 27 Apr)	23 / 45	19 / 45
	Abstentions • C's (4) (on 29 Apr)	0 / 45	4 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45	0 / 45
Sources [13]

Notes

1. Results for IU–V–RM in the 2011 election.
2. Within Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
2. "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
3. "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
4. "Murcia: el PP, a dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta sigue alejado del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
5. "Región de Murcia. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015.
6. "Preelectoral Elecciones Autonómicas 2015 Región de Murcia". CEMOP (in Spanish). 18 May 2015. Archived from the original on 17 September 2017. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
7. "Preelectoral Autonómicas 2015. Región de Murcia" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 18 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 May 2015. Retrieved 20 May 2015.
8. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Región de Murcia (Estudio nº 3074. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
9. "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
10. "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
11. "Región de Murcia: El estreno del candidato del PP, al filo de la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
12. "Región de Murcia. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 17 September 2017.
13. "El PP sigue cayendo y Ciudadanos casi supera a Podemos como tercera fuerza política" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
14. "El PP ganaría las elecciones autonómicas con el peor resultado desde 1991". CEMOP (in Spanish). 23 March 2015.
15. "El PP se desploma y pierde más de un tercio de sus escaños en la Asamblea" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 29 March 2015.
16. "El PP se desploma y pierde más de un tercio de sus escaños en la Asamblea". CEMOP (in Spanish). 31 March 2015.
17. "Ciudadanos asciende, Podemos pierde fuerza y PP y PSOE se estancan". CEMOP (in Spanish). 17 March 2015.
18. "Ciudadanos prosigue su crecimiento, mientras que el resto de fuerzas retroceden levemente" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 8 March 2015.
19. "Ciudadanos sigue sumando apoyos y el resto de fuerzas bajan o se estancan". CEMOP (in Spanish). 10 March 2015.
20. "El PP perdería hoy la mayoría absoluta y estaría obligado a pactar para gobernar" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 1 March 2015.
21. "Encuesta de estimación de voto del CEMOP para las Elecciones 24M de 2015". CEMOP (in Spanish). 5 March 2015. Archived from the original on 17 September 2017. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
22. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA, Febrero 2015. Sondeo CEMOP". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 March 2015.
23. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
24. "Un sondeo del PP sitúa a Podemos como segunda fuerza de la Región". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 19 October 2014.
25. "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Otoño 2014". CEMOP (in Spanish). 20 October 2014. Archived from the original on 17 September 2017. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
26. "Barómetro Regional Otoño 2014 (I Parte)" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 20 October 2014.
27. "Un estudio concluye que Ganemos sería la segunda fuerza política si aglutina en sus filas a IU-Verdes y Podemos". enCiezaDigital (in Spanish). 26 September 2014. Archived from the original on 26 February 2015.
28. "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
29. "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Primavera 2014". CEMOP (in Spanish). 9 June 2014.
30. "Barómetro Primavera 2014. Región de Murcia" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 9 June 2014.
31. "Los murcianos dan un aprobado a Garre y destacan su capacidad de liderazgo". La Verdad (in Spanish). 13 April 2014.
32. "El PP de Murcia perdería diputados pero mantendría la mayoría absoluta". Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 13 April 2014.
33. "Península Electoral: Noviembre 2013 (II)". Pasaporte Electoral (in Spanish). 29 November 2014.
34. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
35. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 26 February 2015.
36. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
37. "Repite la mayoría absoluta: Castilla-La Mancha, Baleares, Castilla y León, Región de Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
38. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
39. "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Invierno 2013". CEMOP (in Spanish). 4 March 2013. Archived from the original on 17 September 2017. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
40. "Barómetro Invierno 2013. Región de Murcia" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 4 March 2013.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 4/1982, de 9 de junio, de Estatuto de Autonomía para la Región de Murcia (Organic Law 4) (in Spanish). 9 June 1982. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Ley 2/1987, de 24 de febrero, Electoral de la Región de Murcia (Law 2) (in Spanish). 24 February 1987. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Murcia elige por unanimidad a Pedro Antonio Sánchez para encabezar las listas del PP". El Mundo (in Spanish). Murcia. Europa Press. 5 March 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
6. Gómez, David (23 March 2014). "Tovar será el candidato socialista a la presidencia de Murcia". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 20 February 2021.
7. García Badía, Jorge (10 March 2015). "IU-Verdes irá a las autonómicas con Ganar la Región de Murcia". La Verdad (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
8. Serrano Solana, Pedro (17 March 2015). "José Antonio Pujante será el candidato de Ganar la Región de Murcia". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
9. "Urralburu, candidato de Podemos a la presidencia de la Comunidad". La Verdad (in Spanish). Murcia. EFE. 1 April 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2021.
10. Gómez, David (16 March 2015). "Miguel Sánchez, candidato de Ciudadanos a la Comunidad". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 20 February 2021.
11. "2015 Statistical Yearbook of the Region of Murcia. Volume I" (PDF). econet.carm.es (in Spanish). Regional Statistics Center of Murcia. Retrieved 7 December 2019.
12. Sierra Rodríguez, Javier (2015). El Sistema Electoral de la Región de Murcia: Balance y Perspectivas (PDF) (in Spanish). Murcia: Universidad de Murcia. Facultad de Derecho. p. 327. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
13. "Elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Murcia (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 September 2017.