Next Extremaduran regional election

Last updated
Next Extremaduran regional election
Flag of Extremadura with COA.svg
  2023 No later than 27 June 2027

All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura
33 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Miguel Angel Gallardo 2011 (cropped).jpg Maria Guardiola 2023 (cropped).jpg Angel Pelayo 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Miguel Ángel Gallardo María Guardiola Ángel Pelayo
Party PSOE PP Vox
Leader since23 March 202416 July 20221 February 2023
Leader's seat Badajoz Cáceres Badajoz
Last election28 seats, 39.9%28 seats, 38.8%5 seats, 8.1%
Current seats28285
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 5 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 5 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 28

  (Irene de Miguel) Reunion Guillermo Fernandez Vara PODEMOS (17757944544) (cropped) (cropped).jpg
Leader Irene de Miguel
Party Podemos–IU–AV
Leader since27 November 2018
Leader's seat Cáceres
Last election4 seats, 6.0%
Current seats4
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 29

Incumbent President

María Guardiola
PP



The next Extremaduran regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Assembly of the autonomous community of Extremadura. All 65 seats in the Assembly will be up for election.

Contents

Overview

Electoral system

The Assembly of Extremadura is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Extremadura, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Extremaduran Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. [1]

Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Extremadurans abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish : Voto rogado). [2] The 65 members of the Assembly of Extremadura are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies are also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they run candidates in both districts and reach five percent regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations. [1] [3]

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree must be published in the DOE no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 27 June 2027. [1] [3] [4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. [1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 2828
People's Parliamentary Group PP 2828
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 55
United for Extremadura
Parliamentary Group
IU 34
Podemos 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [3] [4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
CandidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Vote %Seats
PSOE Miguel Angel Gallardo 2011 (cropped).jpg Miguel Ángel Gallardo Social democracy 39.9%28Dark Red x.svg [5]
PP
List
Maria Guardiola 2023 (cropped).jpg María Guardiola Conservatism
Christian democracy
38.8%28Check-green.svg
Vox
List
Angel Pelayo 2023 (cropped).jpg Ángel Pelayo Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
8.1%5Dark Red x.svg
Podemos–
IU–AV
(Irene de Miguel) Reunion Guillermo Fernandez Vara PODEMOS (17757944544) (cropped) (cropped).jpg Irene de Miguel Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
6.0%4Dark Red x.svg

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout Logo PSOE Extremadura.svg Logo del PP (2022).svg VOX logo.svg Isotipo de Unidas Podemos (2023).svg
Logo de Podemos (2022).svg
Logo Juntos por Extremadura.svg Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg Sumar icon.svg Lead
NC Report/La Razón [p 1] 16–31 May 2025350??
26
?
29
?
6
?
4
?
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 2] 29 Apr–27 May 20251,295?40.2
28
42.1
30
10.2
7
2.0
0
0.3
0
3.2
0
1.9
El Mundo/Sigma Dos [p 3] 9–22 May 20251,028?36.7
25/26
41.8
29/30
9.3
6
6.6
4
3.1
0
5.1
NC Report/La Razón [p 4] 18–23 Jul 20241,00072.139.4
29
43.5
32
6.8
4
2.4
0
2.9
0
4.1
2024 EP election 9 Jun 202446.936.6
(27)
41.4
(31)
10.0
(7)
2.2
(0)
0.5
(0)
0.5
(0)
2.5
(0)
4.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 5] 25 Nov–23 Dec 20231,295?42.5
31
36.7
27
9.0
6
0.9
0
2.0
0
1.0
0
5.0
1
5.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 202371.739.1
(27)
37.9
(25)
13.6
(9)
[a] 6.9
(4)
1.2
PSOE [p 6] 22 Jun 2023???
30
?
28
?
3/4
?
3/4
?
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 7] 28 May–22 Jun 20231,000?42.2
30
37.0
27
8.5
5
5.2
3
2.7
0
0.9
0
5.2
Data10/OKDiario [p 8] 21 Jun 20231,50065.842.9
31
41.1
30
6.6
4
4.6
0
1.8
2023 regional election 28 May 202370.439.9
28
38.8
28
8.1
5
6.0
4
2.5
0
0.9
0
1.1

Notes

  1. Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Macroencuesta autonómica (I): corrupción y cloacas arrasan el poder territorial del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 June 2025.
  2. "ElectoPanel Extremadura (30My): el PSOE pierde fuelle, Guardiola necesita a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 May 2025.
  3. "El PSOE se hunde en Extremadura con su peor dato histórico en pleno aforamiento exprés de Gallardo". El Mundo (in Spanish). 23 May 2025.
  4. "El PP rompe el empate con el PSOE en Extremadura y se queda a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 August 2024.
  5. "ElectoPanel Extremadura (26dic): la división en la izquierda beneficia a Guardiola". Electomanía (in Spanish). 26 December 2023.
  6. "El PSOE ve la repetición electoral en Extremadura como una baza para "resucitar" tras el 23-J". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 22 June 2023.
  7. "ElectoPanel Extremadura (24J): La izquierda ganaría la Junta en una repetición". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 June 2023.
  8. "La repetición de elecciones no cambia nada: Vara volverá a ganar y el PP necesitaría a Vox para gobernar". OKDiario (in Spanish). 22 June 2023.
Other
  1. 1 2 3 4 Ley Orgánica 1/2011, de 28 de enero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 28 January 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. 1 2 3 Ley 2/1987, de 16 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura (Law 2) (in Spanish). 16 March 1987. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  4. 1 2 Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  5. Barrena, José Emiliano (2 March 2024). "Miguel Ángel Gallardo, elegido sucesor de Fernández Vara al frente del PSOE extremeño". El País (in Spanish). Mérida. Retrieved 2 August 2024.