Next Extremaduran regional election

Next Extremaduran regional election

←  2023 No later than 27 June 2027
All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura 33 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Miguel Ángel Gallardo María Guardiola Ángel Pelayo Party PSOE PP Vox Leader since 23 March 2024 16 July 2022 1 February 2023 Leader's seat Badajoz Cáceres Badajoz Last election 28 seats, 39.9% 28 seats, 38.8% 5 seats, 8.1% Current seats 28 28 5 Seats needed 5 5 28   Leader Irene de Miguel Party Podemos–IU–AV Leader since 27 November 2018 Leader's seat Cáceres Last election 4 seats, 6.0% Current seats 4 Seats needed 29
Incumbent President María Guardiola PP

A regional election will be held in Extremadura no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 65 seats in the Assembly will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on Sunday, 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

Under the 2011 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Extremadura is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they are not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote. ^{[2] [3] [4]}

The 65 members of the Assembly of Extremadura are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies are also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they run candidates in both districts and reach five percent regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations. ^{[2] [5]}

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occur after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term will be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when needed, by the designated substitutes, of which the list may include up to three. ^[6]

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. ^{[1] [7] [8]} The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree must be published in the DOE no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 27 June 2027.

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. ^{[7] [9]} In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[10]

On 29 September 2025, regional president María Guardiola warned that she would call a snap election in the event that she was unable to approve her government's budget for 2026. ^[11] Speculation then emerged that the national leadership of the People's Party (PP) was planning to advance the elections in Aragon and Extremadura (and possibly the Balearic Islands) to make them take place near or concurrently with the Castilian-Leonese election scheduled for early 2026. ^{[12] [13] [14]} While the alleged reason for the early election call would be the regional governments' failure in getting their 2026 budgets passed through parliament, the true motive was attributed to PP plans—not without risk—to turn the simultaneous election call into a referendum on the national government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. ^{[15] [16]} Guardiola's government ruled out any plans for a joint election call with any other region and defended the president's "full freedom" to make her independent decisions. ^{[17] [18]}

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	28	28
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	28	28
	Vox Parliamentary Group		Vox	5	5
	United for Extremadura Parliamentary Group		IU	3	4
			Podemos	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[19] [20]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Miguel Ángel Gallardo	Social democracy	39.9%	28		[21]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		María Guardiola	Conservatism Christian democracy	38.8%	28
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Ángel Pelayo	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	8.1%	5
	Podemos– IU–AV	List We Can (Podemos) United Left (IU) – Communist Party of Extremadura (PCEx) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Green Alliance (AV)		Irene de Miguel	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	6.0%	4

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout								Lead
NC Report/La Razón [p 1]	16–31 May 2025	350	?	? 26	? 29	? 6	? 4	–	–	–	?
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 2]	29 Apr–27 May 2025	1,295	?	40.2 28	42.1 30	10.2 7	2.0 0	–	0.3 0	3.2 0	1.9
El Mundo/Sigma Dos [p 3]	9–22 May 2025	1,028	?	36.7 25/26	41.8 29/30	9.3 6	6.6 4	3.1 0	–	–	5.1
NC Report/La Razón [p 4]	18–23 Jul 2024	1,000	72.1	39.4 29	43.5 32	6.8 4	2.4 0	–	–	2.9 0	4.1
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	46.9	36.6 (27)	41.4 (31)	10.0 (7)	2.2 (0)	0.5 (0)	0.5 (0)	2.5 (0)	4.8
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 5]	25 Nov–23 Dec 2023	1,295	?	42.5 31	36.7 27	9.0 6	0.9 0	2.0 0	1.0 0	5.0 1	5.8
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	71.7	39.1 (27)	37.9 (25)	13.6 (9)	[a]	–	–	6.9 (4)	1.2
PSOE [p 6]	22 Jun 2023	?	?	? 30	? 28	? 3/4	? 3/4	–	–	–	?
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 7]	28 May–22 Jun 2023	1,000	?	42.2 30	37.0 27	8.5 5	5.2 3	2.7 0	0.9 0	–	5.2
Data10/OKDiario [p 8]	21 Jun 2023	1,500	65.8	42.9 31	41.1 30	6.6 4	4.6 0	–	–	–	1.8
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	70.4	39.9 28	38.8 28	8.1 5	6.0 4	2.5 0	0.9 0	–	1.1

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						SALF	?	N	Lead
CIS [p 9]	7–31 Mar 2025	442	21.6	27.2	8.8	1.1	3.1	0.2	27.7	5.0	5.6
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	17.5	19.8	4.7	1.1	1.2	1.6	—	51.7	2.3
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	28.3	27.5	9.9	[a]	5.0	–	—	26.3	0.8
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	28.2	27.5	5.7	4.2	–	–	—	27.5	0.7

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			F. Vara PSOE	Gallardo PSOE	Guardiola PP	Pelayo Vox	De Miguel Podemos
CIS [p 9]	7–31 Mar 2025	442	1.2	9.7	26.5	3.3	2.5	6.0	50.9	16.8

Notes

1. Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Macroencuesta autonómica (I): corrupción y cloacas arrasan el poder territorial del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 June 2025.
2. "ElectoPanel Extremadura (30My): el PSOE pierde fuelle, Guardiola necesita a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 May 2025.
3. "El PSOE se hunde en Extremadura con su peor dato histórico en pleno aforamiento exprés de Gallardo". El Mundo (in Spanish). 23 May 2025.
4. "El PP rompe el empate con el PSOE en Extremadura y se queda a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 August 2024.
5. "ElectoPanel Extremadura (26dic): la división en la izquierda beneficia a Guardiola". Electomanía (in Spanish). 26 December 2023.
6. "El PSOE ve la repetición electoral en Extremadura como una baza para "resucitar" tras el 23-J". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 22 June 2023.
7. "ElectoPanel Extremadura (24J): La izquierda ganaría la Junta en una repetición". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 June 2023.
8. "La repetición de elecciones no cambia nada: Vara volverá a ganar y el PP necesitaría a Vox para gobernar". OKDiario (in Spanish). 22 June 2023.
9. "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.

Other

1. Statute (2011) , art. 16.
2. Statute (2011) , art. 17.
3. LEEx (1987) , art. 2.
4. LOREG (1985) , arts. 2–3.
5. LEEx (1987) , arts. 17–19.
6. LEEx (1987) , arts. 19 & 26.
7. LEEx (1987) , art. 22.
8. LOREG (1985) , art. 42.
9. Statute (2011) , art. 26–27.
10. Statute (2011) , art. 25.
11. Barrena, José Emiliano (3 October 2025). "Guardiola advierte que adelantará elecciones en Extremadura si no logra aprobar los Presupuestos". El País (in Spanish). Mérida. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
12. Esteban, Paloma (29 September 2025). "Varias comunidades del PP sopesan adelantar elecciones en 2026". ABC (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
13. D. Prieto, Alberto (2 October 2025). "El PP planea un 'superdomingo' electoral en Baleares, Andalucía, Extremadura y Aragón adelante Sánchez las generales o no". El Español (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 October 2025.
14. Gutiérrez, Lucía (3 October 2025). "El PP no descarta ningún escenario: del «superdomingo» a las elecciones en cascada" (in Spanish). Demócrata. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
15. Lamet, Juanma (1 October 2025). "El PP ve posible un adelanto electoral en Extremadura y Aragón y contempla ya un 'superdomingo' autonómico en marzo". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
16. Carmona, José (2 October 2025). "El 'superdomingo electoral' autonómico: un plebiscito sobre Sánchez con riesgos para el PP". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
17. Entonado Arias, Rocío (2 October 2025). "Extremadura se desmarca del "superdomingo electoral" del PP: "La presidenta Guardiola tiene plena libertad", afirma Bautista". El Periódico Extremadura (in Spanish). Mérida. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
18. "El PP niega que impulse un adelanto electoral conjunto y defiende la independencia de cada presidente autonómico". Canal Extremadura (in Spanish). Europa Press. 2 October 2025. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
19. LEEx (1987) , arts. 25–26.
20. LOREG (1985) , art. 44.
21. Barrena, José Emiliano (2 March 2024). "Miguel Ángel Gallardo, elegido sucesor de Fernández Vara al frente del PSOE extremeño". El País (in Spanish). Mérida. Retrieved 2 August 2024.

Bibliography

• Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5/1985). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 19 June 1985 [version as of 14 July 2025]. BOE-A-1985-11672. Retrieved 5 October 2025.
• Ley 2/1987, de 16 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura (Law 2/1987). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 16 March 1987 [version as of 26 March 1991]. BOE-A-1987-8817. Retrieved 7 October 2025.
• Ley Orgánica 1/2011, de 28 de enero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Organic Law 1/2011). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 28 January 2011 [version as of 29 January 2011]. BOE-A-2011-1638. Retrieved 7 October 2025.