Next Asturian regional election

Last updated
Next Asturian regional election
Flag of Asturias.svg
  2023 No later than 23 May 2027

All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Barbon cropped.jpg Portrait placeholder.svg Carolina Lopez 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Adrián Barbón Álvaro Queipo Carolina López
Party PSOE PP Vox
Leader since17 September 201718 November 202319 January 2023
Leader's seat Central Central
Last election19 seats, 36.5%17 seats, 32.6%4 seats, 10.1%
Current seats19174
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 4 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 6 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 19

  2023 07 29 Consejero de Ordenacion del Territorio Urbanismo Vivienda y Derechos Ciudadanos Ovidio Zapico (2) (1) (cropped).jpg Adrian Pumares 2022 (cropped).jpg Portrait placeholder.svg
Leader Ovidio Zapico Adrián Pumares TBD
Party IUMPIAS Foro Podemos Asturies
Leader since28 January 20231 October 2022
Leader's seat Central Central
Last election3 seats, 7.6%1 seat, 3.7%1 seat, 3.9%
Current seats310
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 20 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 22 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 23

Incumbent President

Adrián Barbón
PSOE



The next Asturian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 13th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta will be up for election.

Contents

Overview

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. [1] Voting for the General Junta is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, which were established as follows:

Each constituency is allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations. [2]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each General Junta constituency is entitled the following seats:

SeatsConstituencies
34 Central District
6 Western District
5 Eastern District

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. [3]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 23 May 2027. [1] [2] [4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. [1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the present. [5]

Current parliamentary composition [6]
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 1919
People's Parliamentary Group PP 1717
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 44
Assembly for Asturias Parliamentary Group IU/IX 23
SMR 1
Mixed Parliamentary Group Foro 12
INDEP 1 [a]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [2] [4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Vote %Seats
PSOE Barbon cropped.jpg Adrián Barbón Social democracy 36.5%19Check-green.svg
PP
List
Portrait placeholder.svg Álvaro Queipo Conservatism
Christian democracy
32.6%17Dark Red x.svg [8]
[9]
Vox
List
Carolina Lopez 2023 (cropped).jpg Carolina López Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
10.1%4Dark Red x.svg
IUMPIAS 2023 07 29 Consejero de Ordenacion del Territorio Urbanismo Vivienda y Derechos Ciudadanos Ovidio Zapico (2) (1) (cropped).jpg Ovidio Zapico Socialism
Communism
7.6%3Check-green.svg
Podemos
Asturies
List
Portrait placeholder.svg TBD Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
3.9%1Dark Red x.svg [7]
Foro
List
Adrian Pumares 2022 (cropped).jpg Adrián Pumares Regionalism
Conservatism
3.7%1Dark Red x.svg

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout Logo FSA-PSOE.svg Logo PP Asturias 2022.svg VOX logo.svg IU500PNG.png Podemos-Asturies-Logo.png Foro Asturias icono 2021.svg SOS Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg Sumar icon.svg SALF Lead
NC Report/La Razón [p 1] 16–31 May 2025350??
18
?
19
?
4
?
3
?
1
?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 2] 5–19 May 20251,003?36.6
18/20
33.8
17/19
9.8
3/4
8.3
3
4.6
1/2
3.6
1
2.8
Celeste-Tel/PP [p 3] 5–17 Feb 20251,000?34.9
18
35.0
19
12.2
4
8.0
3
3.4
1
2.9
0
0.1
Celeste-Tel/PP [p 4] 25 Sep–23 Oct 20241,000?35.9
18
35.8
19
10.8
4
8.6
3
3.0
1
2.4
0
0.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 5] 29 Jul–28 Aug 20241,270?35.2
18
36.2
20
8.9
3
[b] 2.6
0
3.4
0
0.4
0
0.8
0
10.3
4
1.0
2024 EP election 9 Jun 202444.735.036.910.0 [b] 3.80.75.93.31.9
GAD3/PP [p 6] 13–21 Mar 20241,000?36.1
18/20
37.4
18/20
8.8
3
7.8
3
3.4
1
2.3
0
1.3
Celeste-Tel/PP [p 7] 26 Jan–8 Feb 20241,270?36.2
18
34.8
19
9.9
4
7.4
3
3.0
1
3.2
0
1.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 8] 26 Sep–29 Oct 20231,270?37.4
20
32.2
17
9.6
3
8.3
3
3.6
1
3.6
1
0.8
0
1.0
0
5.2
2023 general election 23 Jul 202362.934.335.612.5 [b] [b] 0.414.81.3
2023 regional election 28 May 202356.836.5
19
32.6
17
10.1
4
7.6
3
3.9
1
3.7
1
1.1
0
0.9
0
3.9

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Principality of Asturias.

Notes

  1. Covadonga Tomé, former Podemos legislator. [7]
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Macroencuesta autonómica (I): corrupción y cloacas arrasan el poder territorial del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 June 2025.
  2. "El fortín asturiano del PSOE, en manos de 35.000 votantes indecisos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 May 2025.
  3. "El PP ganaría dos diputados en Asturias, uno en el centro y otro en el oriente". RTPA (in Spanish). 2 March 2025.
  4. "El PP ganaría las elecciones en Asturias y podría formar gobierno según un sondeo". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 3 November 2024.
  5. "ElectoPanel Asturias (30Ag): Queipo desbancaría a Barbón pactando con Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 August 2024.
  6. "Una encuesta para el PP le otorga la victoria en Asturias si hoy se celebraran las elecciones autonómicas". RTPA (in Spanish). 2 April 2024.
  7. "El PP de Queipo ganaría las elecciones en Asturias, según una encuesta propia". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 20 February 2024.
  8. "ElectoPanel Asturias (30oct): el PP baja tras la marcha de Canga". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 October 2023.
  9. 1 2 "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.
Other
  1. 1 2 3 Ley Orgánica 7/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía del Principado de Asturias (Organic Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  2. 1 2 3 Ley 14/1986, de 26 de diciembre, sobre régimen de elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (Law 14) (in Spanish). 26 December 1986. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  4. 1 2 Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  5. "Elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 December 2023.
  6. "Junta General del Principado de Asturias. Organización y funciones. Grupos parlamentarios". General Junta of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 December 2023.
  7. 1 2 A. Peri, Bárbara (23 December 2023). "Podemos expulsa del partido a su única representante en el parlamento asturiano". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Oviedo. Retrieved 25 December 2023.
  8. Lamet, Juanma (13 October 2023). "Diego Canga dimite como diputado del PP de Asturias por motivos "personales" tras anunciarse el congreso de su partido". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 25 December 2023.
  9. A. Peri, Bárbara (18 November 2023). "El PP de Asturias abre una nueva etapa que supere las diferencias internas". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Oviedo. Retrieved 2 January 2024.