Next Asturian regional election

Next Asturian regional election

←  2023 No later than 23 May 2027
←  outgoing members
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Adrián Barbón Álvaro Queipo Carolina López Party PSOE PP Vox Leader since 17 September 2017 18 November 2023 19 January 2023 Leader's seat Central — Central Last election 19 seats, 36.5% 17 seats, 32.6% 4 seats, 10.1% Current seats 19 17 4 Seats needed 4 6 19   Leader Ovidio Zapico Adrián Pumares TBD Party IU–MP–IAS Foro Podemos Asturies Leader since 28 January 2023 1 October 2022 — Leader's seat Central Central — Last election 3 seats, 7.6% 1 seat, 3.7% 1 seat, 3.9% Current seats 3 1 0 Seats needed 20 22 23
Incumbent President Adrián Barbón PSOE

The next Asturian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 13th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the General Junta is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, which were established as follows:

• Central District , comprising the municipalities of Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco).
• Eastern District , comprising the municipalities of Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa).
• Western District , comprising the municipalities of Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros de Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza).

Each constituency is allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations. ^[2]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each General Junta constituency is entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
34	Central District
6	Western District
5	Eastern District

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. ^[3]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 23 May 2027. ^{[1] [2] [4]}

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

Further information: 12th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the present. ^[5]

Current parliamentary composition ^[6]

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	19	19
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	17	17
	Vox Parliamentary Group		Vox	4	4
	Assembly for Asturias Parliamentary Group		IU/IX	2	3
			MP	1
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		Foro	1	2
			INDEP	1 [lower-alpha 1]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [4]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Adrián Barbón	Social democracy	36.50%	19	Y
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Álvaro Queipo	Conservatism Christian democracy	32.61%	17	N	[8] [9]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Carolina López	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	10.11%	4	N
	IU–MP–IAS	List United Left of Asturias (IU/IX) – Communist Party of Asturias (PCA) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) More Country (Más País) Asturian Left (IAS)		Ovidio Zapico	Socialism Communism	7.59%	3	Y
	Podemos Asturies	List We Can Asturias (Podemos Asturies)		TBD	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	3.92%	1	N	[7]
	Foro	List Asturias Forum (Foro)		Adrián Pumares	Regionalism Conservatism	3.66%	1	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							SOS			SALF	Lead
Celeste-Tel/PP [p 1]	25 Sep–23 Oct 2024	1,000	?	35.9 18	35.8 19	10.8 4	8.6 3	3.0 1	2.4 0	–	–	–	–	0.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 2]	29 Jul–28 Aug 2024	1,270	?	35.2 18	36.2 20	8.9 3	[lower-alpha 2]	2.6 0	3.4 0	0.4 0	0.8 0	10.3 4	–	1.0
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	44.7	35.0	36.9	10.0	[lower-alpha 2]	3.8	–	–	0.7	5.9	3.3	1.9
GAD3/PP [p 3]	13–21 Mar 2024	1,000	?	36.1 18/20	37.4 18/20	8.8 3	7.8 3	3.4 1	2.3 0	–	–	–	–	1.3
Celeste-Tel/PP [p 4]	26 Jan–8 Feb 2024	1,270	?	36.2 18	34.8 19	9.9 4	7.4 3	3.0 1	3.2 0	–	–	–	–	1.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 5]	26 Sep–29 Oct 2023	1,270	?	37.4 20	32.2 17	9.6 3	8.3 3	3.6 1	3.6 1	0.8 0	1.0 0	–	–	5.2
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	62.9	34.3	35.6	12.5	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	0.4	–	14.8	–	1.3
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	56.8	36.5 19	32.6 17	10.1 4	7.6 3	3.9 1	3.7 1	1.1 0	0.9 0	–	–	3.9

Notes

1. Covadonga Tomé, former Podemos legislator. ^[7]
2. Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP ganaría las elecciones en Asturias y podría formar gobierno según un sondeo". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 3 November 2024.
2. "ElectoPanel Asturias (30Ag): Queipo desbancaría a Barbón pactando con Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 August 2024.
3. "Una encuesta para el PP le otorga la victoria en Asturias si hoy se celebraran las elecciones autonómicas". RTPA (in Spanish). 2 April 2024.
4. "El PP de Queipo ganaría las elecciones en Asturias, según una encuesta propia". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 20 February 2024.
5. "ElectoPanel Asturias (30oct): el PP baja tras la marcha de Canga". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 October 2023.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 7/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía del Principado de Asturias (Organic Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
2. Ley 14/1986, de 26 de diciembre, sobre régimen de elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (Law 14) (in Spanish). 26 December 1986. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
5. "Elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 December 2023.
6. "Junta General del Principado de Asturias. Organización y funciones. Grupos parlamentarios". General Junta of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 December 2023.
7. A. Peri, Bárbara (23 December 2023). "Podemos expulsa del partido a su única representante en el parlamento asturiano". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Oviedo. Retrieved 25 December 2023.
8. Lamet, Juanma (13 October 2023). "Diego Canga dimite como diputado del PP de Asturias por motivos "personales" tras anunciarse el congreso de su partido". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 25 December 2023.
9. A. Peri, Bárbara (18 November 2023). "El PP de Asturias abre una nueva etapa que supere las diferencias internas". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Oviedo. Retrieved 2 January 2024.