Next French legislative election

Last updated
Next French legislative election
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←  2024 By July 2029
All 577 seats of the National Assembly
289 seats needed for a majority
  Logo Nouveau Front Populaire 2024.svg Stephane Sejourne 18072024 (cropped).jpg
Leader Collective leadership Stéphane Séjourné
Alliance NFP Ensemble
Leader's seat– Hauts-de-Seine's 10th
Last election180159
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 109Increase2.svg 130
  MEP Jordan Bardella.jpg Les Republicains - logo (France, 2023).svg
Leader Jordan Bardella Vacant
Party RN/UXD LR
Leader's seatNot standing [lower-alpha 1] –
Last election14239
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 147Increase2.svg 250
Incumbent Prime Minister

Michel Barnier
LR



Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in France by June 2029 to elect all 577 members of the 17th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic. [1]

Contents

The 2024 elections resulted into a hung parliament and a minority government led by Michael Barnier being appointed by president Emmanuel Macron. The Constitution of France states "no new dissolution may be carried out within one year of these elections." The National Assembly will therefore remain in session until at least June 2025. [2] However the absence of a stable majority means the current government lives under the threat of a future vote of no confidence as well as losing parliamentery votes which has led to speculations of snap elections taking place well ahead of 2029. [3] [4] [5]

Background

On 9 June 2024, shortly after 21:00 CEST, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called snap elections in a national address following projections which indicated that the L'Europe Ensemble electoral list would be significantly eclipsed by the RN in the European Parliament elections in France. [6] In the second round, based on the Interior Ministry's candidate labeling, NFP candidates won 180 seats, with the Ensemble coalition winning 159, RN-supported candidates being elected to 142, and LR candidate taking 39 seats. Since no party reached the requisite 289 seats needed for a majority, the second round resulted in a hung parliament. Unofficial media classifications of candidates' affiliations may differ slightly from those used by the Ministry of Interior: according to Le Monde 's analysis, 182 NFP-affiliated candidates were elected, compared with 168 for Ensemble, 143 for the RN, and 45 for LR. [7] The turnout for the second round, 66.63%, likewise set the record for being the highest since 1997.

On 5 September 2024, Macron appointed Michel Barnier from LR as prime minister. He presented his minority government on 19 September and announced on 22 September. On 1 October, Barnier presented his first speech in the National Assembly. Analysts noted that the failure of any bloc to attain support from an absolute majority of deputies could lead to institutional deadlock because any government must be able to survive motions of no confidence against them. [8] Although Macron can call a second snap election, he is unable to do so until at least a year after the 2024 election, as stipulated by Article 12 in the constitution. [2] On 9 October, Barnier survived a motion of no confidence led by 193 members of the NFP and 4 members of LIOT members support. [9]

RN leader Marine Le Pen said on 7 October, “there will be elections in less than a year,” although she did not clarify what kind. Following Le Pen’s speech, Jordan Bardella, president of RN, also hinted at the possibility of early elections. This led to speculation that RN is anticipating early elections. [10] The government is reliant on RN not voting against it in a vote of no confidence, which means RN currently holds a kingmaker role. [11]

Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon said on 23 October that the government considers using article 49.3 adoption of a law, under which a law can be adopted without a national assembly vote to pass its 2025 budget. This came after the government lost a vote in the National Assembly, where left-wing and centrist deputies united to make a temporary tax on the rich into a permanent levy. [12] Analysts described the 2025 budget debate as the first major test for the government. [13]

Electoral system

The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected. [14]

Notes

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References

  1. ↑ "French Legislative Election, 2029". PoliGlove.
  2. 1 2 "French elections: When will France get a new government? Five questions to understand what happens after the vote". Le Monde. 2024-07-07. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  3. ↑ Dupont, Laureline (26 June 2024). "Quel gouvernement après le 7 juillet ? Les trois scénarios secrets sur la table de Macron". L'Express. Archived from the original on 29 June 2024. Retrieved 30 June 2024.
  4. ↑ "What Do France's Surprise Election Results Mean for the Far Right? | Council on Foreign Relations". www.cfr.org. Retrieved 2024-10-23. ... to keep the government functioning until June 2025, the next time that general elections can be held.
  5. ↑ "National Rally bets on early election". Brussels Signal. 2024-10-07. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  6. ↑ "French President Macron dissolves parliament, calls snap elections". euronews. 9 June 2024. Archived from the original on 9 June 2024. Retrieved 9 June 2024.
  7. ↑ "En direct, résultats des législatives 2024 : aucune prise de parole d'Emmanuel Macron attendue ce soir « à ce stade », selon l'Elysée". Le Monde. 7 July 2024. Archived from the original on 10 July 2024. Retrieved 7 July 2024.
  8. ↑ "Macron appoints conservative Michel Barnier as prime minister". 2024-09-05. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  9. ↑ "France's minority government survives no-confidence vote as far right refuses to back motion". France 24. 2024-10-08. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  10. ↑ "National Rally bets on early election". Brussels Signal. 2024-10-07. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  11. ↑ "French government to survive no confidence vote with far-right backing". euronews. 2024-10-08. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  12. ↑ "French government considers forcing through budget bill after tax on rich vote". France 24. 2024-10-23. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  13. ↑ Chrisafis, Angelique (2024-10-11). "French government faces first major test over deep budget cuts". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  14. ↑ "Elections: France National Assembly 2017 (first round)". Election Guide. International Foundation for Electoral Systems. 11 June 2017. Archived from the original on 15 August 2020. Retrieved 16 June 2022.
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