Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Portuguese legislative election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2024 Portuguese legislative election, held on 10 March, to the present day.

Contents

Nationwide polling

Graphical summary

Graph of the polling for the next Portuguese legislative election with 14 day average bar chart. Graph of the polling for the next Portuguese Legislative Election with bar chart.png
Graph of the polling for the next Portuguese legislative election with 14 day average bar chart.

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, parties are shaded with their colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout
Alianca Democratica 2024 (Portugal) logo.png
Letras PS (Portugal).png Logo Chega!.svg Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png LeftBloc.svg Logo of the Unitary Democratic Coalition.svg Partido LIVRE logo.png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png OLead
Aximage 23–28 Jan 202580078.629.328.118.45.63.83.54.12.94.31.2
Pitagórica 21–26 Jan 2025400 ?33.027.316.86.33.13.43.72.04.45.7
Intercampus [a] 21–26 Jan 2025638 ?27.828.217.37.05.93.43.93.43.10.4
Aximage [b] 16–21 Jan 202580268.029.126.720.56.34.43.23.52.53.82.4
ICS/ISCTE 9–20 Jan 2025805 ?3330174332263
Pitagórica 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 2025400 ?32.926.916.35.74.34.03.11.45.46.0
Intercampus [c] 21–27 Nov 2024605 ?28.830.016.28.35.83.33.33.21.01.2
Aximage [d] 15–22 Nov 202480071.028.126.720.96.03.33.74.31.65.41.4
Aximage 13–19 Nov 202480278.129.828.618.26.84.02.64.12.43.51.2
CESOP–UCP 17–23 Oct 20241,025 ?3329186433224
Intercampus [e] 4–10 Oct 2024612 ?28.229.514.17.56.03.83.52.05.31.3
Aximage 30 Sep–5 Oct 202480268.032.128.615.16.35.53.03.52.33.63.5
Intercampus [f] 29 Aug–4 Sep 2024604 ?29.531.514.88.26.33.63.01.31.82.0
Intercampus [g] 19–26 Jul 2024609 ?28.726.015.59.86.32.45.33.62.42.7
CESOP–UCP 7–13 Jul 2024957 ?3133147433232
Aximage 3–8 Jul 202480174.927.629.517.57.14.63.54.12.53.61.9
2024 EP elections [1] 9 Jun 2024—36.631.1
(89)		32.1
(87)		9.8
(19)		9.1
(20)		4.3
(5)		4.1
(5)		3.8
(5)		1.2
(0)		4.5
(0)		1.0
Intercampus [h] 29 May–4 Jun 2024604 ?29.527.116.19.37.11.65.53.10.72.4
Intercampus [i] 12–20 May 2024609 ?23.724.717.49.08.22.59.43.21.91.0
CESOP–UCP 13–18 May 2024965 ?3029195435231
Intercampus [j] 18–23 Apr 2024605 ?24.328.715.67.99.72.35.72.92.94.4
2024 legislative election [2] 10 Mar 2024—59.928.8
80		28.0
78		18.1
50		4.9
8		4.4
5		3.2
4		3.2
4		2.0
1		7.5
0		0.8

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister or who is better positioned to win are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Luís Montenegro vs Pedro Nuno Santos

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork date Luis Montenegro at EPP Summit, 21 March, Brussels.jpg Pedro Nuno Santos, projecto da alta velocidade Lisboa-Porto-Vigo (2022-10-01), cropped (cropped-2).png NBoth/
O		NOLead
Aximage 23–28 Jan 20254027189613
Aximage 13–19 Nov 20244028188612
Aximage 30 Sep–5 Oct 20244528167417
Intercampus [k] 29 Aug–4 Sep 202445.931.8——22.314.1
Aximage 3–8 Jul 20243728161189
Aximage 17–22 May 20244028189512

Leaders' ratings

Poll results showing the public opinion on all political party leaders rated from 0 to 10 [l] (with the former being strong disapproval and the latter strong approval) are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order (showing the most recent first).

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork date Luis Montenegro at EPP Summit, 21 March, Brussels.jpg EPP Political Assembly, 17-18 November, Lisbon (52505706862) (cropped).jpg Pedro Nuno Santos, projecto da alta velocidade Lisboa-Porto-Vigo (2022-10-01), cropped (cropped-2).png Andre Ventura VIVA 24.jpg Debate com Rui Rocha na CNN, Fev.2024 (53539434166) (cropped) (cropped).jpg Mariana Mortagua, legislativas 2024 (53527512817) (cropped).jpg Paulo Raimundo (Agencia Lusa 2023-10-18) (cropped).png Rui Tavares 2022.png Ines Sousa Real.jpg Lead
Intercampus 21–26 Jan 20256.04.85.44.45.44.84.45.45.00.6
ICS/ISCTE 9–20 Jan 20255.13.84.73.53.73.63.23.93.40.4
Intercampus 21–27 Nov 20246.25.05.64.45.84.84.65.85.20.4
CESOP–UCP 17–23 Oct 20246.0—5.23.54.63.93.54.53.80.8
Intercampus 4–10 Oct 20246.24.85.84.45.65.24.65.85.20.4
Intercampus 29 Aug–4 Sep 20246.65.06.24.65.85.44.65.65.20.4
Intercampus 19–26 Jul 20246.45.25.64.45.85.24.65.85.40.6
CESOP–UCP 7–13 Jul 20245.7—4.83.34.54.23.54.43.70.9
Intercampus 29 May–4 Jun 20246.25.25.64.66.05.44.86.05.60.2
Intercampus 12–20 May 20246.05.05.84.86.05.64.86.45.60.4
CESOP–UCP 13–18 May 20245.7—4.93.54.64.44.04.94.00.8
Intercampus 18–23 Apr 20245.85.05.64.45.85.44.86.05.60.2

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Polling

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample size Luís Montenegro's cabinet
ApproveDisapproveNeitherNo opinionNet
Aximage 23–28 Jan 20258004547—82
Pitagórica 21–26 Jan 20254006229—933
Intercampus 21–26 Jan 202563825.136.736.81.40.1
ICS/ISCTE 9–20 Jan 20258054145—144
Pitagórica 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 20254006232—630
Intercampus 21–27 Nov 202460530.032.935.51.52.6
Aximage 13–19 Nov 20248024548—73
CESOP–UCP 17–23 Oct 20241,025221857335
Intercampus 4–10 Oct 202461229.235.633.81.31.8
Aximage 30 Sep–5 Oct 20248026034—626
Intercampus 29 Aug–4 Sep 202460439.623.735.31.44.3
Intercampus 19–26 Jul 202460933.926.336.33.52.4
CESOP–UCP 3–7 Jul 2024957182057537
Marktest 5–7 Jun 202444046.029.622.32.216.4
Intercampus 29 May–4 Jun 202460431.531.635.31.73.7
Intercampus 12–20 May 202460919.832.244.83.212.6
CESOP–UCP 13–18 May 20249651524511027
Marktest 7–15 May 202449737.036.224.32.40.8
Intercampus 18–23 Apr 202460521.837.835.94.51.9

Notes

  1. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (12.3%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 24.7%; AD: 24.4%; CHEGA: 15.2%; IL: 6.1%; BE: 5.2%; Livre: 3.4%; CDU: 3.0%; PAN: 3.0%; Others/Invalid: 2.7%.
  2. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (7.5%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.9%; PS: 24.7%; CHEGA: 19.0%; IL: 5.8%; BE: 4.1%; Livre: 3.2%; CDU: 3.0%; PAN: 2.3%; Others/Invalid: 3.5%.
  3. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.8%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 27.1%; AD: 26.0%; CHEGA: 14.6%; IL: 7.5%; BE: 5.2%; CDU: 3.0%; Livre: 3.0%; PAN: 2.9%; Others/Invalid: 0.9%.
  4. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (6.9%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.2%; PS: 24.9%; CHEGA: 19.5%; IL: 5.6%; Livre: 4.0%; CDU: 3.4%; BE: 3.1%; PAN: 1.5%; Others/Invalid: 5.0%.
  5. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (13.6%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 25.5%; AD: 24.3%; CHEGA: 12.2%; IL: 6.5%; BE: 5.2%; CDU: 3.3%; Livre: 3.0%; PAN: 1.7%; Others/Invalid: 4.6%.
  6. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.9%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 28.4%; AD: 26.6%; CHEGA: 13.3%; IL: 7.4%; BE: 5.7%; CDU: 3.2%; Livre: 2.7%; PAN: 1.2%; Others/Invalid: 1.6%.
  7. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (8.1%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.4%; PS: 23.9%; CHEGA: 14.3%; IL: 9.0%; BE: 5.8%; Livre: 4.9%; PAN: 3.3%; CDU: 2.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.2%.
  8. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.2%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.8%; PS: 24.6%; CHEGA: 14.6%; IL: 8.5%; BE: 6.5%; Livre: 5.0%; PAN: 2.8%; CDU: 1.6%; Others/Invalid: 0.6%.
  9. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (6.3%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 23.1%; AD: 22.2%; CHEGA: 16.3%; Livre: 8.8%; IL: 8.4%; BE: 7.7%; PAN: 3.0%; CDU: 2.3%; Others/Invalid: 1.8%.
  10. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (7.4%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 26.6%; AD: 22.5%; CHEGA: 14.4%; BE: 9.0%; IL: 7.3%; Livre: 5.3%; PAN: 2.7%; CDU: 2.1%; Others/Invalid: 2.7%.
  11. ↑ Question: Who do you think has more competency to be the prime minister of Portugal, the current prime minister Luís Montenegro or Pedro Nuno Santos?
  12. ↑ Intercampus and Aximage polls rate party leaders from 1 to 5. CESOP–UCP poll rates party leaders from 0 to 20. The results are adapted to match the ICS/ISCTE polls.

References

  1. ↑ "AD ficava à frente em São Bento com resultados das europeias" (in Portuguese). Diário de Notícias. 2024-06-11. Retrieved 2024-06-11.
  2. ↑ "Eleições Legislativas 2024". legislativas2024.mai.gov.pt (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-03-31.
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