Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

Most recent polling by pollster

This section collates the most recent opinion poll released by each pollster. ^[1]

Pollster	Dates conducted	Lab	Con	Ref	LD	Grn	Lead
Techne	26–27 Feb 2025	26%	22%	25%	13%	8%	Lab +1 over Ref
Find Out Now	26 Feb 2025	23%	21%	28%	13%	10%	Ref +5 over Lab
BMG Research	25–26 Feb 2025	26%	22%	27%	12%	8%	Ref +1 over Lab
YouGov	23–24 Feb 2025	24%	22%	25%	16%	8%	Ref +1 over Lab
More In Common	21–24 Feb 2025	23%	25%	24%	16%	8%	Con +1 over Ref
Opinium	19–21 Feb 2025	28%	21%	26%	12%	8%	Lab +2 over Ref
Lord Ashcroft Polls	13–17 Feb 2025	28%	23%	23%	9%	11%	Lab +5 over Con+Ref
Survation	28–29 Jan 2025	27%	22%	24%	13%	8%	Lab +3 over Ref
Whitestone Insight	22–23 Jan 2025	25%	20%	24%	12%	13%	Lab +1 over Ref
Deltapoll	17–20 Jan 2025	29%	25%	22%	11%	8%	Lab +4 over Con
JL Partners	10–14 Jan 2025	26%	25%	22%	13%	9%	Lab +1 over Con
Stonehaven	6–9 Dec 2024	28%	24%	21%	13%	8%	Lab +4 over Con
We Think	7–8 Aug 2024	33%	20%	21%	11%	8%	Lab +12 over Ref
General election (GB)	4 Jul 2024	34.7%	24.4%	14.7%	12.5%	6.9%	Lab +10.3 over Con

National poll results

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

2025

For political events during the year, see 2025 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2025 in the United Kingdom.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Lab	Con	Reform	Lib Dems	Green	SNP	PC	Others	Lead
26–27 Feb	Techne [2]	N/A	UK	1,643	26%	22%	25%	13%	8%	2%	–	4%	Lab +1 over Ref
26 Feb	Find Out Now [3]	N/A	GB	3,363	23%	21%	28%	13%	10%	3%	1%	1%	Ref +5 over Lab
25–26 Feb	BMG Research [4]	The i	GB	1,586	26%	22%	27%	12%	8%	3%	1%	1%	Ref +1 over Lab
23–24 Feb	YouGov [5]	Sky News The Times	GB	2,415	24%	22%	25%	16%	8%	3%	1%	2%	Ref +1 over Lab
21–24 Feb	More in Common [6]	N/A	GB	2,013	23%	25%	24%	16%	8%	2%	0%	2%	Con +1 over Ref
19–21 Feb	Opinium [7]	The Observer	GB	2,050	28%	21%	26%	12%	8%	3%	–	2%	Lab +2 over Ref
19–20 Feb	Techne [8]	N/A	UK	1,639	25%	22%	26%	12%	7%	3%	–	5%	Ref +1 over Lab
19 Feb	Find Out Now [9]	N/A	GB	2,393	24%	20%	28%	12%	10%	2%	1%	2%	Ref +4 over Lab
14–18 Feb	More in Common [10]	N/A	GB	4,101	25%	23%	26%	12%	7%	2%	1%	3%	Ref +1 over Lab
16–17 Feb	YouGov [11]	N/A	GB	2,436	25%	21%	27%	14%	9%	3%	1%	1%	Ref +2 over Lab
13–17 Feb	Lord Ashcroft Polls [12]	N/A	GB	5,099	28%	23%	23%	9%	11%	2%	0%	3%	Lab +5 over Con+Ref
12–13 Feb	Techne [13]	N/A	UK	1,637	26%	22%	25%	12%	8%	2%	–	5%	Lab +1 over Ref
12 Feb	Find Out Now [14]	N/A	GB	3,421	23%	21%	29%	12%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Ref +6 over Lab
9–10 Feb	YouGov [15]	N/A	GB	2,419	25%	21%	26%	14%	9%	3%	1%	1%	Ref +1 over Lab
7–10 Feb	More in Common [16]	N/A	GB	2,005	25%	23%	25%	12%	8%	2%	1%	3%	Lab-Ref tie
5–7 Feb	Opinium [17]	The Observer	GB	1,493	27%	22%	26%	11%	8%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +1 over Ref
5–6 Feb	Techne [18]	N/A	UK	1,645	25%	23%	25%	13%	7%	2%	–	5%	Lab-Ref tie
5 Feb	Find Out Now [19]	N/A	GB	2,487	25%	18%	29%	13%	10%	3%	1%	2%	Ref +4 over Lab
2–3 Feb	YouGov [20]	Sky News [21]	GB	2,465	24%	21%	25%	14%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Ref +1 over Lab
31 Jan – 3 Feb	More in Common [22]	N/A	GB	2,044	24%	26%	24%	13%	6%	3%	1%	3%	Con +2 over Lab +Ref
29–30 Jan	Techne [23]	N/A	UK	1,633	26%	23%	24%	12%	7%	3%	–	5%	Lab +2 over Ref
29 Jan	Find Out Now [24]	N/A	GB	2,487	23%	21%	27%	11%	10%	3%	1%	3%	Ref +4 over Lab
28–29 Jan	BMG Research [25]	The i	GB	1,514	25%	25%	24%	14%	8%	3%	1%	1%	Lab-Con tie
28–29 Jan	Survation [26]	N/A	UK	1,670	27%	22%	24%	13%	8%	3%	–	4%	Lab +3 over Ref
26–27 Jan	YouGov [27]	The Times	GB	2,523	27%	22%	23%	14%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +4 over Ref
24–27 Jan	More in Common [28]	N/A	GB	2,009	25%	24%	25%	13%	7%	2%	1%	3%	Lab-Ref tie
22–29 Jan	Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus [29] (MRP)	PLMR	GB	5,743	23%	23%	24%	11%	8%	3%	1%	6%	Ref +1 over Lab +Con
22–24 Jan	Opinium [30]	The Observer	GB	2,050	28%	21%	27%	11%	8%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +1 over Ref
22–23 Jan	Whitestone Insight [31]	Daily Express	GB	2,012	25%	20%	24%	12%	13%	3%	–	3%	Lab +1 over Ref
22–23 Jan	Techne [32]	N/A	UK	1,643	25%	24%	24%	13%	7%	2%	–	5%	Lab +1 over Con +Ref
22 Jan	Find Out Now [33]	N/A	GB	2,380	22%	23%	26%	12%	10%	3%	1%	3%	Ref +3 over Con
19–20 Jan	YouGov [34]	The Times	GB	2,466	26%	22%	24%	14%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +2 over Ref
17–20 Jan	More in Common [35]	N/A	GB	2,016	24%	25%	25%	12%	7%	3%	1%	3%	Con-Ref tie
17–20 Jan	Deltapoll [36]	Institute for Government	GB	1,500	29%	25%	22%	11%	8%	3%	–	2%	Lab +4 over Con
16–20 Jan	Lord Ashcroft Polls [37]	N/A	GB	5,251	28%	25%	20%	11%	9%	3%	0%	3%	Lab +3 over Con
15–16 Jan	Techne [38]	N/A	UK	1,624	26%	25%	23%	12%	7%	2%	–	5%	Lab +1 over Con
15 Jan	Find Out Now [39]	N/A	GB	2,386	24%	25%	25%	12%	10%	3%	1%	2%	Con-Ref tie
10–14 Jan	JL Partners [40]	The Sunday Times	GB	2,007	26%	25%	22%	13%	9%	2%	1%	3%	Lab +1 over Con
12–13 Jan	YouGov [41]	The Times	GB	2,279	26%	22%	25%	14%	8%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +1 over Ref
10–13 Jan	More in Common [42]	N/A	GB	1,587	24%	25%	24%	12%	8%	3%	1%	3%	Con +1 over Lab +Ref
8–10 Jan	Opinium [43]	The Observer	GB	2,050	29%	23%	24%	10%	9%	2%	1%	2%	Lab +5 over Ref
8 Jan	Find Out Now [44]	N/A	GB	2,076	25%	20%	25%	11%	11%	3%	1%	2%	Lab-Ref tie
6–8 Jan	More in Common [45]	N/A	GB	2,011	26%	26%	22%	12%	7%	3%	1%	2%	Lab-Con tie
30 Dec – 3 Jan	Deltapoll [46]	Mail on Sunday	GB	1,532	30%	23%	22%	12%	9%	3%	1%	1%	Lab +7 over Con

2024

For political events during the year, see 2024 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2024 in the United Kingdom.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Lab	Con	Reform	Lib Dems	Green	SNP	PC	Others	Lead
19–23 Dec	Deltapoll [47]	The Mirror	GB	1,552	29%	25%	21%	12%	8%	4%	0%	1%	Lab +4 over Con
18–20 Dec	Opinium [48]	The Observer	GB	1,472	29%	23%	22%	11%	10%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +6 over Con
18–19 Dec	Techne [49]	N/A	UK	1,642	27%	26%	21%	12%	7%	2%	–	5%	Lab +1 over Con
12–16 Dec	Survation [50]	N/A	UK	2,030	30%	25%	20%	11%	7%	2%	1%	2%	Lab +5 over Con
11–12 Dec	Techne [51]	N/A	UK	1,634	27%	25%	22%	11%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +2 over Con
11 Dec	Find Out Now [52]	N/A	GB	2,659	26%	23%	25%	11%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +1 over Con
6–10 Dec	More in Common [53]	N/A	GB	2,432	26%	26%	19%	13%	8%	3%	1%	4%	Lab-Con tie
6–9 Dec	Stonehaven [54] (MRP)	N/A	GB	2,072	28%	24%	21%	13%	8%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +4 over Con
5–6 Dec	Techne [55]	N/A	UK	1,644	27%	25%	21%	12%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +2 over Con
4 Dec	Find Out Now [56]	N/A	GB	2,607	23%	26%	24%	11%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Con +2 over Lab
29 Nov – 2 Dec	More in Common [57]	N/A	GB	2,002	26%	28%	21%	13%	7%	3%	1%	2%	Con +2 over Lab
27–29 Nov	Opinium [58]	The Observer	GB	2,050	29%	25%	21%	10%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +4 over Con
27–28 Nov	Techne [59]	N/A	UK	1,648	28%	27%	18%	13%	6%	2%	–	6%	Lab +1 over Con
27 Nov	Find Out Now [60]	N/A	GB	2,316	25%	27%	22%	12%	9%	3%	1%	2%	Con +2 over Lab
26–27 Nov	BMG Research [61]	The i	GB	1,531	29%	27%	20%	12%	7%	3%	0%	2%	Lab +2 over Con
26–27 Nov	More in Common [62]	N/A	GB	1,972	27%	30%	18%	12%	8%	2%	1%	2%	Con +3 over Lab
20–21 Nov	Techne [63]	N/A	UK	1,632	29%	27%	17%	12%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +2 over Con
19–21 Nov	More in Common [64]	N/A	GB	2,002	25%	28%	19%	13%	8%	3%	1%	3%	Con +3 over Lab
14–18 Nov	Deltapoll [65]	N/A	GB	1,749	29%	27%	18%	12%	8%	4%	1%	1%	Lab +2 over Con
13–14 Nov	JL Partners [66]	The Sun / Politico	GB	2,024	27%	26%	20%	12%	9%	3%	–	3%	Lab +1 over Con
13–14 Nov	Techne [67]	N/A	GB	1,643	28%	27%	17%	13%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +1 over Con
11–13 Nov	Opinium [68]	The Observer	GB	1,646	30%	24%	21%	12%	8%	3%	1%	1%	Lab +6 over Con
8–11 Nov	More in Common [69]	N/A	GB	2,007	27%	29%	19%	11%	8%	2%	1%	4%	Con +2 over Lab
6–7 Nov	Techne [70]	N/A	UK	1,636	29%	25%	18%	13%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +4 over Con
2 Nov	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
31 Oct – 16 Dec	More in Common [71] (MRP)	N/A	GB	11,024	25%	26%	21%	14%	8%	2%	1%	3%	Con +1 over Lab
30 Oct – 1 Nov	More in Common [72]	N/A	GB	2,007	28%	26%	18%	14%	8%	3%	1%	3%	Lab +2 over Con
30–31 Oct	Opinium [73]	The Observer	GB	1,548	31%	24%	20%	10%	10%	2%	0%	3%	Lab +7 over Con
30–31 Oct	BMG Research [74]	The i	GB	1,511	28%	29%	17%	13%	8%	2%	1%	2%	Con +1 over Lab
30–31 Oct	Techne [75]	N/A	UK	1,632	30%	24%	18%	14%	7%	2%	–	5%	Lab +6 over Con
23–24 Oct	Techne [76]	N/A	UK	1,644	29%	24%	19%	13%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +5 over Con
16–18 Oct	Opinium [77]	The Observer	GB	1,565	31%	24%	20%	12%	8%	2%	1%	2%	Lab +7 over Con
16–17 Oct	Techne [78]	N/A	UK	1,636	28%	25%	19%	13%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +3 over Con
11–13 Oct	JL Partners [79]	The Telegraph	GB	2,000	29%	25%	19%	14%	7%	2%	1%	2%	Lab +4 over Con
9–10 Oct	Techne [80]	N/A	UK	1,651	29%	24%	19%	12%	7%	2%	–	7%	Lab +5 over Con
9–10 Oct	More in Common [81]	The Times	GB	2,000	27%	27%	21%	13%	7%	2%	1%	1%	Lab-Con tie
5–7 Oct	More in Common [82]	Politico	GB	2,023	29%	28%	19%	11%	7%	2%	0%	3%	Lab +1 over Con
4–7 Oct	Deltapoll [83]	N/A	GB	2,108	29%	25%	18%	14%	8%	4%	1%	1%	Lab +4 over Con
2–4 Oct	Opinium [84]	The Observer	GB	1,491	31%	24%	20%	11%	8%	3%	–	2%	Lab +7 over Con
2–3 Oct	BMG Research [85]	i	GB	1,562	30%	25%	20%	13%	7%	3%	0%	1%	Lab +5 over Con
2–3 Oct	Techne [86]	N/A	UK	1,643	31%	23%	18%	13%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +8 over Con
25–26 Sep	Techne [87]	N/A	UK	1,638	32%	22%	18%	13%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +10 over Con
24–25 Sep	More in Common [88]	N/A	GB	2,080	30%	26%	18%	13%	8%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +4 over Con
18–19 Sep	Techne [89]	The Independent	UK	1,641	33%	21%	18%	13%	7%	2%	–	6%	Lab +12 over Con
10–12 Sep	More in Common [90]	Politico	GB	1,542	29%	25%	18%	14%	8%	3%	1%	4%	Lab +4 over Con
29 Aug	BMG Research [91]	i	GB	1,560	30%	26%	19%	12%	8%	3%	1%	2%	Lab +4 over Con
7–8 Aug	We Think [92]	N/A	GB	1,278	33%	20%	21%	11%	8%	3%	1%	4% Independents on 3% Other on 1%	Lab +12 over Ref
5–7 Aug	BMG Research [93]	i	GB	1,523	33%	24%	18%	12%	8%	–	–	4%	Lab +9 over Con
30 Jul – 5 Aug	Stonehaven [94]	N/A	GB	2,048	34%	22%	17%	12%	9%	–	–	6%	Lab +12 over Con
25–26 Jul	We Think [95]	N/A	GB	2,012	36%	22%	17%	11%	7%	2%	1%	4% Independents on 3% Other on 1%	Lab +14 over Con
11–12 Jul	We Think [96]	N/A	GB	2,005	39%	20%	16%	11%	9%	2%	–	3%	Lab +19 over Con
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election	–	UK	–	33.7%	23.7%	14.3%	12.2%	6.8%	2.5%	0.7%	6.1%	Lab +10.0 over Con
			GB		34.7%	24.4%	14.7%	12.5%	6.9%	2.6%	0.7%	3.5%	Lab +10.3 over Con

Preferred prime minister

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Kemi Badenoch	Nigel Farage	Ed Davey	Other	None	Don't know	Lead
21–24 Feb 2025	More in Common [6]	2,013	22%	11%	23%	–	–	44%	–	1
19–21 Feb 2025	Opinium [7]	2,050	25%	15%	–	–	–	45%	15%	10
18 Feb 2025	Redfield & Wilton Strategies [97]	1,500	32%	27%	–	–	–	–	41%	5
			36%	–	37%	–	–	–	26%	1
14–18 Feb 2025	More in Common [10]	4,101	23%	10%	25%	–	–	43%	–	2
13–17 Feb 2025	Lord Ashcroft Polls [12]	5,099	29%	17%	–	–	–	–	54%	12
			30%	9%	23%	–	–	–	38%	7
7–10 Feb 2025	More in Common [16]	2,005	22%	13%	24%	–	–	41%	–	2
6–7 Feb 2025	YouGov [98]	2,275	31%	20%	–	–	–	–	–	11
			36%	–	26%	–	–	–	–	10
			24%	–	–	16%	–	–	–	8
			–	22%	22%	–	–	–	–	Tie
			–	17%	–	26%	–	–	–	9
			–	–	25%	30%	–	–	–	5
5–7 Feb 2025	Opinium [99]	2,050	24%	15%	–	–	–	46%	15%	9
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025	More in Common [100]	2,044	22%	12%	24%	–	–	42%	–	2
28–29 Jan 2025	Survation [26]	2,010	34%	31%	–	–	–	–	44%	3
24–27 Jan 2025	More in Common [28]	2,009	21%	12%	23%	–	–	44%	–	2
16–20 Jan 2025	Lord Ashcroft Polls [37]	5,231	29%	18%	–	–	–	–	53%	11
			31%	11%	21%	–	–	–	37%	10
17 Jan 2025	YouGov [101]	2,266	19%	9%	20%	8%	–	34%	–	1
10–14 Jan 2025	JL Partners [40]	2,007	29%	26%	–	–	–	–	44%	3
			38%	–	33%	–	–	–	29%	5
10–13 Jan 2025	More in Common [102]	2,005	21%	12%	20%	–	–	47%	–	1
8–10 Jan 2025	Opinium [43]	2,050	26%	16%	–	–	–	42%	16%	10
18–20 Dec 2024	Opinium [103]	2,010	25%	16%	–	–	–	41%	17%	9
13–17 Dec 2024	Ipsos [104]	1,137	32%	18%	–	–	–	27%	–	14
			37%	–	25%	–	–	21%	–	12
			–	16%	23%	–	–	40%	–	7
12–16 Dec 2024	Survation [105]	2,030	35%	30%	–	–	–	–	35%	5
6–10 Dec 2024	More in Common [106]	2,432	28%	23%	–	–	–	49%	–	5
26–27 Nov 2024	YouGov [107]	2,203	27%	22%	–	–	–	4%	47%	5
2 Nov 2024	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Rishi Sunak	Nigel Farage	Ed Davey	Other	None	Don't know	Lead
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta [108]	2,135	39%	32%	–	–	–	45%	11%	7
2–4 Oct 2024	Opinium [109]	2,003	25%	19%	–	–	–	45%	–	6
25–27 Sep 2024	Opinium [110]	2,049	27%	18%	–	–	–	46%	10%	9
18–20 Sep 2024	Opinium [111]	2,050	28%	18%	–	–	–	44%	10%	10
28–30 Aug 2024	Opinium [112]	2,040	34%	15%	–	–	–	40%	11%	19
14–16 Aug 2024	Opinium [113]	1,996	36%	16%	–	–	–	37%	12%	20
7–8 Aug 2024	We Think [114]	1,278	26%	10%	20%	5%	4% Carla Denyer,Grn on 2% Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 2%	20%	15%	6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024	Opinium [115]	2,063	38%	14%	–	–	–	37%	11%	24
25–26 Jul 2024	We Think [116]	2,012	30%	11%	18%	4%	4% Carla Denyer,Grn on 3% Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 1%	18%	15%	12
17–19 Jul 2024	Opinium [117]	2,010	37%	14%	–	–	–	34%	15%	23
11–12 Jul 2024	We Think [118]	2,005	30%	11%	14%	5%	5% Carla Denyer,Grn on 4% Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 1%	20%	13%	16

Seat projections

MRP polls

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Area	Lab	Con	LD	SNP	Ref	Grn	Plaid	Others	Majority
22 – 29 Jan 2025	Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now [119]	PLMR [120]	5,743	GB	174	178	57	37	175	4	2	5	Hung (Con 148 short)
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025	Focaldata [121]	Hope not Hate [122]	17,790	GB	287	163	63	22	76	4	4	13	Hung (Lab 39 short)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024	More in Common [123]	N/A	11,024	GB	228	222	58	37	72	2	4	26 [a]	Hung (Lab 98 short)
6–9 Dec 2024	Stonehaven [124]	N/A	2,072	GB	278	157	47	24	120	3	2	19 [a]	Hung (Lab 48 short)
2 Nov 2024	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	UK	411	121	72	9	5	4	4	23 Sinn Féin: 7 Independents: 6 DUP: 5 SDLP: 2 Alliance: 1 UUP: 1 TUV: 1 Speaker: 1	Lab 174

POLARIS projections

Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes. ^[125]

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Area	Lab	Con	LD	SNP	Ref	Grn	Plaid	Oth	Majority
Through January 2025	J.L. Partners [126]	N/A	306,817 [b]	GB	200	190	70	42	102	7	4	34 Northern Irish seats: 18 Independents or Workers Party: 16 Speaker: 1	Hung (Lab 126 short)
Through December 2024	J.L. Partners [127]	N/A	280,000	GB	256	208	66	6	71	5	4	33 Northern Irish seats: 18 Independents or Workers Party: 15 Speaker: 1	Hung (Lab 70 short)
2 Nov	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	UK	411	121	72	9	5	4	4	23 Sinn Féin: 7 Independents: 6 DUP: 5 SDLP: 2 Alliance: 1 UUP: 1 TUV: 1 Speaker: 1	Lab 174

Sub-national poll results

Northern Ireland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Sinn Féin	DUP	Alliance	UUP	SDLP	TUV	Others	Lead
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election [128]		–	27.0%	22.1%	15.0%	12.2%	11.1%	6.2%	6.4%	4.9

Scotland

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	SNP	Con	LD	Ref	Grn	Others	Lead
15–20 Jan 2025	Find Out Now [129]	The Herald	1,334	18%	31%	12%	10%	17%	7%	5%	14
11–14 Jan 2025	Norstat [130]	The Sunday Times	1,026	18%	32%	13%	11%	17%	6%	3%	14
7–13 Jan 2025	Survation [131]	N/A	1,024	24%	33%	14%	9%	15%	4%	1%	9
17–24 Dec 2024	Find Out Now [132]	The National [133]	1,774	20%	34%	14%	9%	15%	6%	2%	14
4–6 Dec 2024	Norstat [134]	The Sunday Times	1,013	20%	31%	14%	9%	15%	6%	4% Alba on 3% Other on 1%	11
1–15 Nov 2024	Survation [135]	Progress Scotland	3,016	28%	31%	15%	6%	13%	5%	3% Alba on 2% Other on 1%	3
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024	Norstat [136]	The Sunday Times	1,013	23%	30%	15%	10%	14%	6%	2% Alba on 1% Other on 1%	7
27 Sep 2024	Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024	Survation [137]	Progress Scotland	2,059	31%	31%	14%	9%	11%	3%	1% Alba on 1% Other on 0%	Tie
5–11 Sep 2024	Opinium [138]	The Sunday Times [139]	1,028	25%	32%	14%	8%	11%	7%	2%	7
20–22 Aug 2024	Norstat [140]	The Sunday Times	1,011	32%	29%	12%	8%	12%	5%	2% Alba on 2% Other on 1%	3
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election [141]		–	35.3%	30.0%	12.7%	9.7%	7.0%	3.8%	1.6%	5.3

Wales

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Ref	Pld	LD	Grn	Oth	Lead
3–5 Dec 2024	Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024	Survation [142]	Reform UK	2,006	33%	18%	21%	13%	9%	5%	0%	12
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election [143]		–	37.0%	18.2%	16.9%	14.8%	6.5%	4.7%	1.9%	18.8

English mayoral regions

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	Ref	Grn	Others	Lead
Nov–Dec 2024	Stonehaven [144]	PoliticsHome	6,500	28%	24%	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	4
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	30.1%	25.0%	22.0%	12.7%	6.6%	3.7%	5.1

Greater Lincolnshire

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con	Lab	Ref	LD	Grn	Others	Lead
Nov–Dec 2024	Stonehaven [145]	PoliticsHome	6,500	33%	24%	28%	TBD	TBD	TBD	5
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	34.0%	29.1%	23.6%	5.1%	4.5%	3.6%	4.9

Hull and East Yorkshire

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Ref	LD	Grn	Others	Lead
Nov–Dec 2024	Stonehaven [146]	PoliticsHome	6,500	30%	26%	30%	TBD	TBD	TBD	Tie
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	37.7%	26.2%	21.9%	7.8%	4.7%	1.7%	11.5

London

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	Grn	Ref	Others	Lead
30 Oct – 11 Nov 2024	Savanta [147]	N/A	?	36%	24%	12%	12%	13%	3%	12
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	43.0%	20.6%	11.0%	10.0%	8.7%	6.7%	22.7

100 most rural constituencies

In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	Ref	Grn	Others	Lead
14–21 Nov 2024	Survation [148]	Country Land and Business Association	1,007	34%	21%	18%	21%	7%	0%	13
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election (Survation) [148]		–	33.9%	23.6%	19.1%	16.1%	6.0%	1.4%	10.4

Approval polling

Leadership approval

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer			Kemi Badenoch			Nigel Farage			Ed Davey			Carla Denyer			Adrian Ramsay
			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
25–26 Feb 2025	BMG Research	1,586	24%	54%	–30	23%	22%	+1	32%	33%	–1	23%	18%	+5	–			–
21–24 Feb 2025	More in Common	2,013	19%	58%	–39	13%	37%	–24	26%	38%	–12	–
19–21 Feb 2025	Opinium	2,050	21%	55%	–34	18%	38%	–20	30%	38%	–8	21%	22%	–1
18 Feb 2025	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,500	30%	48%	–18	–			–			–
14–18 Feb 2025	More in Common	4,101	20%	57%	–37	15%	36%	–21	30%	38%	–8	16%	26%	–10
16–17 Feb 2025	YouGov	2,436	26%	66%	–40	17%	51%	–34	30%	60%	–30	27%	32%	–5	7%	13%	–5	4%	12%	–8
12 Feb 2025	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	2,300	–			29%	24%	+5	–			–			–			–
7–10 Feb 2025	More in Common	2,005	19%	60%	–41	17%	36%	–19	29%	40%	–11	19%	24%	–5
5–7 Feb 2025	Opinium	2,050	22%	56%	–34	20%	35%	–15	31%	38%	–7	22%	21%	+1
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025	More in Common	2,044	18%	56%	–38	15%	33%	–18	26%	38%	–12	15%	24%	–9
28–29 Jan 2025	BMG Research	1,514	22%	55%	–33	23%	23%	0	32%	35%	–3	22%	18%	+4
28–29 Jan 2025	Survation	2,010	30%	49%	–19	33%	31%	+2	35%	42%	–7	28%	25%	+3
24–27 Jan 2025	More in Common	2,009	16%	58%	–42	16%	32%	–16	27%	39%	–12	15%	24%	–9
22–24 Jan 2025	Opinium	2,050	21%	55%	–34	19%	34%	–15	32%	39%	–7	21%	21%	0
17–20 Jan 2025	More in Common	2,016	20%	56%	–36	16%	33%	–17	27%	39%	–12	15%	24%	–9
17–20 Jan 2025	Deltapoll	1,500	29%	64%	–35	29%	45%	–16	–			–
10–13 Jan 2025	More in Common	2,102	19%	58%	–39	14%	32%	–18	25%	42%	–17	–
8–10 Jan 2025	Opinium	2,050	22%	55%	–33	21%	34%	–13	30%	39%	–9	22%	20%	+2
30 Dec – 3 Jan 2025	Deltapoll	1,532	26%	68%	–42	25%	46%	–21	–			–
19–23 Dec 2024	Deltapoll	1,552	28%	64%	–36	34%	38%	–4	–			–
18–20 Dec 2024	Opinium	2,010	22%	54%	–32	21%	32%	–12	29%	38%	–9	23%	20%	+3
12–16 Dec 2024	Survation	2,030	35%	44%	–9	36%	25%	+11	37%	37%	0	29%	23%	+6
12–13 Dec 2024	YouGov	2,215	25%	66%	–41	18%	49%	–31	28%	62%	–34	–
6–10 Dec 2024	More in Common	2,432	19%	55%	–36	18%	27%	–9	27%	38%	–11	17%	25%	'–8
27 Nov – 4 Dec 2024	Ipsos	1,028	27%	61%	–34	19%	34%	–15	–			30%	27%	+3
27–29 Nov 2024	Opinium	2,020	22%	54%	–32	22%	28%	–6	29%	38%	–9	22%	21%	+1
26–27 Nov 2024	BMG Research	1,531	25%	53%	–28	23%	16%	+7	27%	34%	–7	23%	18%	+5
26–27 Nov 2024	More in Common	1,749	24%	53%	–29	20%	26%	–6	25%	41%	–16	–
14–18 Nov 2024	Deltapoll	1,749	29%	61%	–32	24%	38%	–14	–			–
13–14 Nov 2024	JL Partners	2,024	25%	48%	–23	22%	23%	–1	31%	41%	–10	20%	21%	–1	12%	12%	-	11%	10%	+1
11–13 Nov 2024	Opinium	2,068	25%	50%	–25	20%	25%	–5	29%	37%	–8	23%	19%	+3	–			–
8–11 Nov 2024	Ipsos	1,139	23%	52%	–29	21%	39%	–18	28%	48%	–20	21%	31%	–10	17%	26%	–9	16%	26%	–10
8–11 Nov 2024	More In Common	2,111	24%	48%	–24	17%	19%	–2	–			16%	21%	–5	–			–
8–10 Nov 2024	YouGov	2,099	28%	61%	–33	21%	41%	–20	30%	61%	–31	24%	31%	–7	7%	14%	–7	4%	12%	–8
2 Nov	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer			Rishi Sunak			Nigel Farage			Ed Davey			Carla Denyer			Adrian Ramsay
			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
30–31 Oct 2024	BMG Research	1,511	23%	49%	–26	28%	33%	–5	28%	35%	–7	19%	19%	-	–			–
30–31 Oct 2024	Opinium	2,016	26%	50%	–24	23%	45%	–22	28%	40%	–12	23%	19%	+4
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta	2,135	30%	48%	–18	28%	49%	–21	31%	46%	–14	22%	28%	–5	15%	20%	–5	13%	20%	–7
16–18 Oct 2024	Opinium	2,007	21%	53%	–32	20%	45%	–25	25%	39%	–14	22%	20%	+2	–			–
9–10 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,073	18%	56%	–38	18%	49%	–31	–			–
5–7 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,023	21%	54%	–33	19%	51%	–32
4–7 Oct 2024	Deltapoll	2,108	30%	61%	–31	27%	65%	–38
4–6 Oct 2024	YouGov	2,121	27%	63%	–36	24%	66%	–42	28%	63%	–35	25%	32%	–7
2–4 Oct 2024	Opinium	2,055	24%	52%	–28	18%	47%	–29	26%	42%	–16	21%	21%	-
2–3 Oct 2024	BMG Research	1,562	25%	50%	–25	23%	41%	–18	29%	32%	–4	21%	20%	+1
25–27 Sep 2024	Opinium	2,003	23%	53%	–30	20%	46%	–26	29%	40%	–11	22%	23%	–1
24–25 Sep 2024	More In Common	2,080	21%	48%	–27	17%	52%	–35	–			–
20–22 Sep 2024	YouGov	2,137	30%	60%	–30	24%	68%	–44	28%	63%	–35	27%	36%	–9
18–20 Sep 2024	Opinium	2,050	24%	50%	–26	21%	46%	–25	27%	39%	–12	24%	21%	+3
9 Sep 2024	More In Common	2,024	25%	45%	–20	–			–			–
29 Aug 2024	BMG Research	1,560	28%	44%	–16	22%	46%	–24	28%	37%	–9	19%	21%	–2
24–27 Aug 2024	More In Common	2,015	27%	43%	–16	17%	58%	–41	–			–
14–16 Aug 2024	Opinium	2,000	32%	38%	–6	20%	50%	–30	24%	43%	–19	21%	21%	-
7–8 Aug 2024	We Think	1,278	33%	42%	–9	22%	57%	–35	29%	44%	–15	18%	36%	–18	14%	28%	–14	10%	26%	–16
5–7 Aug 2024	BMG Research	1,523	30%	33%	–3	19%	42%	–23	23%	37%	–14	21%	16%	+5	–			–
5–6 Aug 2024	YouGov	2,163	37%	53%	–16	23%	71%	–48	25%	67%	–42	–
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024	Opinium	2,063	35%	32%	+3	18%	48%	–30	25%	40%	–15	24%	19%	+5	19%	17%	+2	19%	17%	+2
30–31 Jul 2024	YouGov	2,233	40%	49%	–9	23%	70%	–47	27%	62%	–35	27%	33%	–6	9%	12%	–3	3%	10%	–7
25–26 Jul 2024	We Think	2,012	42%	37%	+5	25%	61%	–36	30%	50%	–20	21%	36%	–15	16%	34%	–18	12%	32%	–20
17–19 Jul 2024	Opinium	2,010	38%	20%	+18	20%	42%	–22	–			25%	18%	+7	21%	15%	+6	21%	15%	+6
11–12 Jul 2024	We Think	2,005	38%	15%	+23	21%	31%	–10				–			–			–
5–8 Jul 2024	YouGov [149]	2,102	44%	47%	–3	23%	70%	–47	27%	65%	–38	34%	29%	+5	13%	16%	–3	7%	14%	–7
5–6 Jul 2024	Ipsos [150]	1,141	40%	33%	+7	21%	57%	–36	26%	52%	–26	29%	26%	+3	–			–

Party approval

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Labour			Conservative			Reform			Lib Dems			Green
			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
21–24 Feb 2025	More in Common [6]	2,013	18%	57%	–39	–			–			–			–
14–18 Feb 2025	More in Common [10]	4,101	18%	58%	–40	14%	50%	–36	–			–			–
16–17 Feb 2025	YouGov [151]	2,436	29%	64%	–35	24%	68%	–44	32%	56%	–24	34%	45%	–11	41%	38%	+3
7–10 Feb 2025	More in Common [16]	2,005	21%	57%	–36	16%	51%	–35	–			–			–
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025	More in Common [100]	2,044	20%	53%	–33	16%	46%	–30	–			–			–
28–29 Jan 2025	Survation [26]	2,010	34%	47%	–13	34%	44%	–10	33%	41%	–8	29%	31%	–2	32%	33%	–1
24–27 Jan 2025	More in Common [28]	2,009	17%	53%	–36	15%	49%	–34	–			–			–
17–20 Jan 2025	More in Common [35]	2,016	21%	56%	–35	16%	49%	–33	–			–			–
12–16 Dec 2024	Survation [105]	2,030	34%	44%	–10	36%	41%	–5	34%	38%	–4	28%	29%	–1	28%	33%	–5
12–13 Dec 2024	YouGov [152]	2,215	28%	63%	–35	24%	67%	–43	27%	59%	–32	–			–
6–10 Dec 2024	More In Common [106]	2,432	20%	56%	–36	18%	46%	–28	–			–			–
8–11 Nov 2024	More In Common [153]	2,011	21%	47%	–26	16%	43%	–27	–			17%	23%	–6	–
8–10 Nov 2024	YouGov [154]	2,099	30%	61%	–31	25%	67%	–42	26%	59%	–33	38%	42%	–4	41%	39%	+2
2 Nov 2024	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
9–10 Oct 2024	More In Common [155]	2,072	24%	51%	–27	15%	52%	–36	–			–			–
5–7 Oct 2024	More In Common [156]	2,023 [c]	24%	51%	–27	15%	53%	–38	–			–			–
20–22 Sep 2024	YouGov [157]	2,132	32%	59%	–27	24%	67%	–43	26%	62%	–36	37%	45%	–8	40%	42%	–2
24–27 Aug 2024	More In Common [158]	2,015	25%	45%	–20	15%	57%	–42	–			–			–
5–6 Aug 2024	YouGov [159]	2,163	39%	53%	–14	23%	70%	–47	–			–			–
5–8 Jul 2024	YouGov [160] [149]	2,102	47%	46%	+1	21%	72%	–51	28%	62%	–34	45%	37%	+8	46%	38%	+8
5–6 Jul 2024	Ipsos [161] [150]	1,141	40%	34%	+6	20%	59%	–39	25%	51%	–26	29%	28%	+1	33%	28%	+6

Other polling

Hypothetical polling

Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Hypothetical Conservative leader		Lab	Con	LD	SNP	Ref	Grn	Plaid	Others	Majority / lead
11–15 Oct 2024	Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) [162]	Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick	GB	6,289	Kemi Badenoch	Seats	332	151	63	48	25	4	4	5	Lab 14
						Vote share	29%	22%	12%	4%	21%	10%	1%	1%	7
					Robert Jenrick	Seats	311	178	58	48	24	4	4	5	Hung (Labour 15 short)
						Vote share	28%	23%	12%	4%	20%	11%	1%	1%	5

Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Kemi Badenoch	Robert Jenrick	None	Don't know	Lead
30–31 Oct 2024	YouGov [163]	2,234	27%	20%	–	47%	6%	7
			29%	–	21%	45%	5%	8
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta [108]	2,135	41%	23%	–	–	35%	18
			41%	–	25%	–	35%	16

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
• Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
• Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
• Opinion polling for the next Senedd election

Notes

1. Polling was of GB adults only, but 18 seats were assigned to Northern Irish parties in the reporting of the outcome.
2. Combined with a 2,000 sample nationally representative survey.
3. All of the sample was asked about their approval of the Conservative Party. Half of the sample (1,012) was asked about their approval of the Labour Party; half of the sample (1,011) were asked about their approval of the government.

References

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