Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Last updated

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

Contents

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

Opinion polling graph for the next United Kingdom general election (post-2024).svg

Most recent polling by pollster

This section collates the most recent opinion poll from each pollster. [1]

PollsterDates
conducted		 Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green Lead
Find Out Now29 Jan 202523%21%27%11%10%Ref +4 over Lab
Survation28–29 Jan 202527%22%24%13%8%Lab +3 over Ref
YouGov26–27 Jan 202527%22%23%14%9%Lab +4 over Ref
More In Common24–27 Jan 202525%24%25%13%7%Lab-Ref tie
Opinium22–24 Jan 202528%21%27%11%8%Lab +1 over Ref
Whitestone Insight22–23 Jan 202525%20%24%12%13%Lab +1 over Ref
Techne22–23 Jan 202525%24%24%13%7%Lab +1 over Con & Ref
Deltapoll17–20 Jan 202529%25%22%11%8%Lab +4 over Con
JL Partners10–14 Jan 202526%25%22%13%9%Lab +1 over Con
Stonehaven6–9 Dec 202428%24%21%13%8%Lab +4 over Con
BMG Research26–27 Nov 202429%27%20%12%7%Lab +2 over Con
We Think7–8 Aug 202433%20%21%11%8%Lab +12 over Ref
General election (GB)4 Jul 202434.7%24.4%14.7%12.5%6.9%Lab +10.3 over Con

National poll results

Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

2025

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientAreaSample
size		 Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green OthersLead
29 JanFind Out Now [2] N/AGB2,48723%21%27%11%10%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
4
28–29 JanSurvation [3] N/AUK1,67027%22%24%13%8%
7%
SNP on 3%
Other on 4%
3
26–27 JanYouGov [4] The TimesGB2,52327%22%23%14%9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
4
24–27 JanMore in Common [5] N/AGB2,00925%24%25%13%7%
6%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
Tie
22–24 JanOpinium [6] The ObserverGB2,05028%21%27%11%8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
1
22–23 JanWhitestone Insight [7] Daily ExpressGB2,01225%20%24%12%13%
6%
SNP on 3%
Other on 3%
1
22–23 JanTechne [8] N/AUK1,64325%24%24%13%7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
1
22 JanFind Out Now [9] N/AGB2,38022%23%26%12%10%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
3
19–20 JanYouGov [10] The TimesGB2,46626%22%24%14%9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
2
17–20 JanMore in Common [11] N/AGB2,01624%25%25%12%7%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
Tie
17–20 JanDeltapoll [12] Institute for GovernmentGB1,50029%25%22%11%8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Other on 2%
4
15–16 JanTechne [13] N/AUK1,62426%25%23%12%7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
1
15 JanFind Out Now [14] N/AGB2,38624%25%25%12%10%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
Tie
10–14 JanJL Partners [15] The Sunday TimesGB2,00726%25%22%13%9%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
1
12–13 JanYouGov [16] The TimesGB2,27926%22%25%14%8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
1
10–13 JanMore in Common [17] N/AGB1,58724%25%24%12%8%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
1
8–10 JanOpinium [18] The ObserverGB2,05029%23%24%10%9%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
5
8 JanFind Out Now [19] N/AGB2,07625%20%25%11%11%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
Tie
6–8 JanMore in Common [20] N/AGB2,01126%26%22%12%7%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
Tie
30 Dec 2024 – 3 Jan 2025Deltapoll [21] Mail on SundayGB1,53230%23%22%12%9%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
7

2024

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientAreaSample
size		 Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green OthersLead
19–23 Dec Deltapoll The MirrorGB1,55229%25%21%12%8%
5%
SNP on 4%
PC on 0%
Other on 1%
4
18–20 Dec Opinium The ObserverGB1,47229%23%22%11%10%
7%
SNP on 3%
PC on 1%
Other on 2%
6
18–19 Dec Techne N/AUK1,64227%26%21%12%7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
1
12–16 Dec Survation N/AUK2,03030%25%20%11%7%
6%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
5
31 Oct – 16 Dec More in Common (MRP)N/AGB11,02425%26%21%14%8%
6%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
1
11–12 Dec Techne N/AUK1,63427%25%22%11%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
2
11 Dec Find Out Now N/AGB2,65926%23%25%11%9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
1
6–10 Dec More in Common N/AGB2,43226%26%19%13%8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
Tie
6–9 Dec Stonehaven (MRP)N/AGB2,07228%24%21%13%8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
4
5–6 Dec Techne N/AUK1,64427%25%21%12%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
2
4 Dec Find Out Now N/AGB2,60723%26%24%11%9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
2
29 Nov – 2 Dec More in Common N/AGB2,00226%28%21%13%7%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
2
27–29 Nov Opinium The ObserverGB2,05029%25%21%10%9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
4
27–28 Nov Techne N/AUK1,64828%27%18%13%6%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
1
27 Nov Find Out Now N/AGB2,31625%27%22%12%9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
2
26–27 Nov BMG Research The iGB1,53129%27%20%12%7%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 2%
2
26–27 Nov More in Common N/AGB1,97227%30%18%12%8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
3
20–21 Nov Techne N/AUK1,63229%27%17%12%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
2
19–21 Nov More in Common N/AGB2,00225%28%19%13%8%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
3
14–18 Nov Deltapoll N/AGB1,74929%27%18%12%8%
6%
SNP on 4%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
2
13–14 Nov JL Partners The Sun / PoliticoGB2,02427%26%20%12%9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Other on 3%
1
13–14 Nov Techne N/AGB1,64328%27%17%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
1
11–13 Nov Opinium The ObserverGB1,64630%24%21%12%8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
6
8–11 Nov More in Common N/AGB2,00727%29%19%11%8%
7%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
2
6–7 Nov Techne N/AUK1,63629%25%18%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
4
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
30 Oct – 1 Nov More in Common N/AGB2,00728%26%18%14%8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
2
30–31 Oct Opinium The ObserverGB1,54831%24%20%10%10%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 3%
7
30–31 Oct BMG Research The iGB1,51128%29%17%13%8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
1
30–31 Oct Techne N/AUK1,63230%24%18%14%7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
6
23–24 Oct Techne N/AUK1,64429%24%19%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
5
16–18 Oct Opinium The ObserverGB1,56531%24%20%12%8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
7
16–17 Oct Techne N/AUK1,63628%25%19%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
3
11–13 Oct JL Partners The Telegraph GB2,00029%25%19%14%7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
4
9–10 Oct Techne N/AUK1,65129%24%19%12%7%
9%
SNP on 2%
Other on 7%
5
9–10 Oct More in Common The TimesGB2,00027%27%21%13%7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
Tie
5–7 Oct More in Common PoliticoGB2,02329%28%19%11%7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 3%
1
4–7 Oct Deltapoll N/AGB2,10829%25%18%14%8%
6%
SNP on 4%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
4
2–4 Oct Opinium The ObserverGB1,49131%24%20%11%8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Other on 2%
7
2–3 Oct BMG Research i GB1,56230%25%20%13%7%
4%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 1%
5
2–3 Oct Techne N/AUK1,64331%23%18%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
8
25–26 Sep Techne N/AUK1,63832%22%18%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
10
24–25 Sep More in Common N/AGB2,08030%26%18%13%8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
4
18–19 Sep Techne The IndependentUK1,64133%21%18%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
12
10–12 Sep More in Common PoliticoGB1,54229%25%18%14%8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
4
29 Aug BMG Research i GB1,56030%26%19%12%8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
4
7–8 Aug We Think N/AGB1,27833%20%21%11%8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Independents on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
12
5–7 Aug BMG Research i GB1,52333%24%18%12%8%4%9
30 Jul – 5 Aug Stonehaven N/AGB2,04834%22%17%12%9%6%12
25–26 Jul We Think N/AGB2,01236%22%17%11%7%
7%
Independents on 3%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
14
11–12 Jul We Think N/AGB2,00539%20%16%11%9%5%19
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election –UK–33.7%23.7%14.3%12.2%6.8%9.3%10.0
GB34.7%24.4%14.7%12.5%6.9%6.8%10.3

Seat projections

MRP polls

Date(s)
conducted		PollsterClientSample

size

Area Lab Con Lib Dems SNP Reform Green Plaid Cymru OthersMajority
 ?? Jan 2025 Whitestone Insights Daily Express TBCGB28311377181187-16 [a] Hung
(Lab 43 short)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024 More in Common N/A11,024GB2282225837722426 [a] Hung
(Lab 98 short)
6–9 Dec 2024 Stonehaven N/A2,072GB27815747241203219Hung
(Lab 48 short)
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election –UK411121729544
23
Sinn Féin: 7
Independents: 6
DUP: 5
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
UUP: 1
TUV: 1
Speaker: 1
Lab 174

POLARIS projections

Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes. [22]

Date(s)
conducted		PollsterClientSample

size

Area Lab Con Lib Dems SNP Reform Green Plaid Cymru OthersMajority
Through December 2024 J.L. Partners N/A280,000GB2562086667154
34
Northern Irish seats: 18
Independents or Workers Party: 15
Speaker: 1

Hung
(Lab 70 short)
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election –UK411121729544
23
Sinn Féin: 7
Independents: 6
DUP: 5
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
UUP: 1
TUV: 1
Speaker: 1
Lab 174

Sub-national poll results

Northern Ireland

Date(s)
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV OthersLead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [23] –27.0%22.1%15.0%12.2%11.1%6.2%6.4%4.9

Scotland

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland Scotland-only UK general election opinion polling (post-2024).svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland
Date(s)
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Lab SNP Con Lib Dems Reform Green OthersLead
7–13 Jan 2025 Survation N/A1,02424%33%14%9%15%4%1%9
17–24 Dec 2024 Find Out Now [24] The National1,77420%34%14%9%15%6%2%14
4–6 Dec 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,01320%31%14%9%15%6%
4%
Alba on 3%
Other on 1%
11
1–15 Nov 2024 Survation Progress Scotland3,01628%31%15%6%13%5%
3%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
3
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,01323%30%15%10%14%6%
2%
Alba on 1%
Other on 1%
7
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation Progress Scotland2,05931%31%14%9%11%3%
1%
Alba on 1%
Other on 0%
Tie
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium [25] The Sunday Times1,02825%32%14%8%11%7%2%7
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,01132%29%12%8%12%5%
2%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [26] –35.3%30.0%12.7%9.7%7.0%3.8%1.6%5.3

Wales

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Lab Con Reform Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Green OthersLead
3–5 Dec 2024 Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024Survation [27] Reform UK 2,00633%18%21%13%9%5%0%12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [28] –37.0%18.2%16.9%14.8%6.5%4.7%1.9%18.8

English mayoral regions

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Con Lab Lib Dems Reform Green OthersLead
Nov–Dec 2024 Stonehaven PoliticsHome 6,50028%24%TBDTBDTBDTBD4
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election –30.1%25.0%22.0%12.7%6.6%3.7%5.1

Greater Lincolnshire

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Con Lab Reform Lib Dems Green OthersLead
Nov–Dec 2024 Stonehaven PoliticsHome 6,50033%24%28%TBDTBDTBD5
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [29] –34.0%29.1%23.6%5.1%4.5%3.6%4.9

Hull and East Yorkshire

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green OthersLead
Nov–Dec 2024 Stonehaven PoliticsHome 6,50030%26%30%TBDTBDTBDTie
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [30] –37.7%26.2%21.9%7.8%4.7%1.7%11.5

London

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Lab Con Lib Dems Green Reform OthersLead
30 Oct – 11 Nov 2024 Savanta N/A?36%24%12%12%13%3%12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election –43.0%20.6%11.0%10.0%8.7%6.7%22.7

100 most rural constituencies

In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		 Con Lab Lib Dems Reform Green OthersLead
14–21 Nov 2024Survation [31] Country Land and Business Association 1,00734%21%18%21%7%0%13
4 Jul 20242024 general election (Survation) [32] –33.9%23.6%19.1%16.1%6.0%1.4%10.4

Approval polling

Leadership approval

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates
conducted		PollsterSample
size		 Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
24–27 Jan More in Common 2,00916%58%–4216%32%–1627%39%–1215%24%–9––
22–24 Jan 2025 Opinium 2,05021%55%–3419%34%–1532%39%–721%21%-––
17–20 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,01620%56%–3616%33%–1727%39%–1215%24%–9––
17–20 Jan 2025 Deltapoll 1,50029%64%–3529%45%–16––––
10–13 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,10219%58%–3914%32%–1825%42%–17–––
8–10 Jan 2025 Opinium 2,05022%55%–3321%34%–1330%39%–922%20%+2––
30 Dec – 3 Jan 2025 Deltapoll 1,53226%68%–4225%46%–21––––
19–23 Dec 2024 Deltapoll 1,55228%64%–3634%38%–4––––
18–20 Dec 2024 Opinium 2,01022%54%–3221%32%–1229%38%–923%20%+3––
12–16 Dec 2024 Survation 2,03035%44%–936%25%+1137%37%-29%23%+6––
12–13 Dec 2024 YouGov 2,21525%66%–4118%49%–3128%62%–34–––
6–10 Dec 2024 More in Common 2,43219%55%–3618%27%–927%38%–1117%25%–8––
27 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 Ipsos 1,02827%61%–3419%34%–15–30%27%+3––
27–29 Nov 2024 Opinium 2,02022%54%–3222%28%–629%38%–922%21%+1––
26–27 Nov 2024 BMG Research 1,53125%53%–2823%16%+727%34%–723%18%+5––
26–27 Nov 2024 More in Common 1,74924%53%–2920%26%–625%41%–16–––
14–18 Nov 2024 Deltapoll 1,74929%61%–32 24%38%–14––––
13–14 Nov 2024 JL Partners 2,02425%48%–23 22%23%–131%41%–1020%21%–112%12%-11%10%+1
11–13 Nov 2024 Opinium 2,06825%50%–25 20%25%–529%37%–823%19%+3––
8–11 Nov 2024 Ipsos 1,13923%52%–2921%39%–1828%48%–2021%31%–1017%26%–916%26%–10
8–11 Nov 2024 More In Common 2,11124%48%–2417%19%–2–16%21%–5––
8–10 Nov 2024 YouGov 2,09928%61%–33 21%41%–2030%61%–3124%31%–77%14%–74%12%–8
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted		PollsterSample
size		 Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
30–31 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,51123%49%–26 28%33%–528%35%–719%19%-––
30–31 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,01626%50%–24 23%45%–2228%40%–1223%19%+4––
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta 2,13530%48%–1828%49%–2131%46%–1422%28%–515%20%–513%20%–7
16–18 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,00721%53%–32 20%45%–2525%39%–1422%20%+2––
9–10 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,07318%56%–3818%49%–31––––
5–7 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,02321%54%–3319%51%–32––––
4–7 Oct 2024 Deltapoll 2,10830%61%–3127%65%–38––––
4–6 Oct 2024 YouGov 2,12127%63%–3624%66%–4228%63%–3525%32%–7––
2–4 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,05524%52%–2818%47%–2926%42%–1621%21%-––
2–3 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,56225%50%–2523%41%–1829%32%–421%20%+1––
25–27 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,00323%53%–3020%46%–2629%40%–1122%23%–1––
24–25 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,08021%48%–2717%52%–35––––
20–22 Sep 2024 YouGov 2,13730%60%–3024%68%–4428%63%–3527%36%–9––
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,05024%50%–2621%46%–2527%39%–1224%21%+3––
9 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,02425%45%–20–––––
29 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,56028%44%–1622%46%–2428%37%–919%21%–2––
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common 2,01527%43%–1617%58%–41––––
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,00032%38%–620%50%–3024%43%–1921%21%-––
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think 1,27833%42%–922%57%–3529%44%–1518%36%–1814%28%–1410%26%–16
5–7 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,52330%33%–319%42%–2323%37%–1421%16%+5––
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov 2,16337%53%–1623%71%–4825%67%–42–––
5 Aug 2024 United Kingdom riots end
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,06335%32%+318%48%–3025%40%–1524%19%+519%17%+219%17%+2
30–31 Jul 2024 YouGov 2,23340%49%–923%70%–4727%62%–3527%33%–69%12%–33%10%–7
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think 2,01242%37%+525%61%–3630%50%–2021%36%–1516%34%–1812%32%–20
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,01038%20%+1820%42%–22–25%18%+721%15%+621%15%+6
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,00538%15%+2321%31%–10––––
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov [33] 2,10244%47%–323%70%–4727%65%–3834%29%+513%16%–37%14%–7
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos [34] 1,14140%33%+721%57%–3626%52%–2629%26%+3––

Party approval

Dates
conducted		PollsterSample
size		 Labour Conservative Reform Lib Dems Green
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
24–27 Jan 2025More in Common [35] 2,00917%53%–3615%49%–34–––
17–20 Jan 2025More in Common [36] 2,01621%56%–3516%49%–33–––
12–16 Dec 2024Survation [37] 2,03034%44%–1036%41%–534%38%–428%29%–128%33%–5
12–13 Dec 2024YouGov [38] 2,21528%63%–3524%67%–4327%59%–32––
6–10 Dec 2024More In Common [39] 2,43220%56%–3618%46%–28–––
8–11 Nov 2024More In Common [40] 2,01121%47%–2616%43%–27–17%23%–6–
8–10 Nov 2024YouGov [41] 2,09930%61%–3125%67%–4226%59%–3338%42%–441%39%+2
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
9–10 Oct 2024More In Common [42] 2,07224%51%–2715%52%–36–––
5–7 Oct 2024More In Common [43] 2,023 [b] 24%51%–2715%53%–38–––
20–22 Sep 2024YouGov [44] 2,13232%59%–2724%67%–4326%62%–3637%45%–840%42%–2
24–27 Aug 2024More In Common [45] 2,01525%45%–2015%57%–42–––
5–6 Aug 2024YouGov [46] 2,16339%53%–1423%70%–47–––
5–8 Jul 2024YouGov [47] [33] 2,10247%46%+121%72%–5128%62%–3445%37%+846%38%+8
5–6 Jul 2024Ipsos [48] [34] 1,14140%34%+620%59%–3925%51%–2629%28%+133%28%+6

Preferred prime minister

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.

Dates
conducted		PollsterSample
size		 Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay NoneDon't knowLead
24–27 Jan 2025More in Common [49] 2,00921%12%23%–––44%–2
17 Jan 2025YouGov [50] TBD19%9%20%8%––34%–1
10–14 JanJL Partners [51] 2,00729%26%–––––44%3
38%–33%––––29%5
10–13 Jan 2025More in Common [52] TBD21%12%20%–––47%–1
8–10 Jan 2025Opinium [53] 2,05026%16%––––42%16%10
18–20 Dec 2024Opinium [54] 2,01025%16%––––41%17%9
13–17 Dec 2024Ipsos [55] 1,13732%18%––––27%–14
37%–25%–––21%–12
–16%23%–––40%–7
12–16 Dec 2024Survation [56] 2,03035%30%–––––35%5
6–10 Dec 2024More in Common [57] 2,43228%23%––––49%–5
26–27 Nov 2024YouGov [58] 2,20327%22%––––4%47%5
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted		PollsterSample
size		 Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay NoneDon't knowLead
18–20 Oct 2024Savanta [59] 2,13539%32%––––45%11%7
2–4 Oct 2024Opinium [60] 2,00325%19%––––45%–6
25–27 Sep 2024Opinium [61] 2,04927%18%––––46%10%9
18–20 Sep 2024Opinium [62] 2,05028%18%––––44%10%10
28–30 Aug 2024Opinium [63] 2,04034%15%––––40%11%19
14–16 Aug 2024Opinium [64] 1,99636%16%––––37%12%20
7–8 Aug 2024We Think [65] 1,27826%10%20%5%2%2%20%15%6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024Opinium [66] 2,06338%14%––––37%11%24
25–26 Jul 2024We Think [67] 2,01230%11%18%4%3%1%18%15%12
17–19 Jul 2024Opinium [68] 2,01037%14%––––34%15%23
11–12 Jul 2024We Think [69] 2,00530%11%14%5%4%1%20%13%16

Other polling

Hypothetical polling

Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Dates

conducted

PollsterClientAreaSample

size

Hypothetical Conservative leader Lab Con Lib Dems SNP Reform Green Plaid Cymru OthersMajority / lead
11–15 Oct 2024Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) [70] Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick GB6,289 Kemi Badenoch Seats332151634825445Lab 14
Vote share29%22%12%4%21%10%1%1%7
Robert Jenrick Seats311178584824445Hung (Labour 15 short)
Vote share28%23%12%4%20%11%1%1%5

Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling

Dates
conducted		PollsterSample
size		 Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Robert Jenrick NoneDon't knowLead
30–31 Oct 2024YouGov [71] 2,23427%20%–47%6%7
29%–21%45%5%8
18–20 Oct 2024Savanta [72] 2,13541%23%––35%18
41%–25%–35%16

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Polling was of GB adults only, but 16 seats were assigned to Northern Irish parties in the reporting of the outcome.
  2. ↑ All of the sample was asked about their approval of the Conservative Party. Half of the sample (1,012) was asked about their approval of the Labour Party; half of the sample (1,011) were asked about their approval of the government.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wales (European Parliament constituency)</span> Former European Parliament constituency

Wales was a constituency of the European Parliament. It elected 4 MEPs using the D'Hondt method of party-list proportional representation, until the UK exit from the European Union on 31 January 2020.

The British Polling Council (BPC) is an association of market research companies whose opinion polls are regularly published or broadcast in media in the United Kingdom. The current President is Jane Green.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2013 British Columbia general election</span> Canadian provincial election

The 2013 British Columbia general election took place on May 14, 2013, to elect the 85 members of the 40th Parliament of British Columbia to the Legislative Assembly in the Canadian province of British Columbia. The British Columbia Liberal Party formed the government during the 39th Parliament prior to this general election, initially under the leadership of Premier Gordon Campbell then after his resignation, Christy Clark. The British Columbia New Democratic Party under the leadership of Carole James, and then Adrian Dix, formed the Official Opposition. The BC Green Party under the leadership of Jane Sterk and the BC Conservative Party under John Cummins were also included in polling, although neither party had representation at the end of the 39th Parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Savanta</span> British market research consultancy

Savanta is a market research consultancy based in London, England. Established in 2003 as Communicate Research Ltd, then ComRes, it was a founding member of the British Polling Council in 2004, and, by 2016, it was described one of the UK's "most respected" polling companies. In 2022, it became known as Savanta.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Opinium is a market research and insight agency established on 7 September 2007. It is headquartered in New York and London. Its chief executive is James Endersby. The agency works across five practice areas: Brand & Communications, Product & Service Development, Stakeholder Research, and Thought Leadership. It is chiefly known for its full service market research and insight consultancy for clients ranging from Vodafone, Unilever, Santander, MetLife, Dawn Foods, Direct Line Insurance, Itsu, Next, Amnesty International, to the London School of Economics and Canderel.

Survation is a polling and market research agency based in London, England. Survation have been conducting research surveys since 2010. Surveys are conducted via telephone, online panel and face to face as well as omnibus research for a broad range of clients including television, newspapers, charities, lobby groups, trade unions, law firms and political parties. Damian Lyons Lowe is the company founder and Chief Executive.

This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).

Prior to the 2015 general election, various polling organisations conducted opinion polling in specific constituencies. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article. However, most opinion polling covers Great Britain, where the results are published in this article here.

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns the nearly 300 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Opinion polling for the 2019 general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Opinion polling about attitudes to the leaders of various political parties can be found in a separate article.

At various dates in the run up to the 2019 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The opinion polls listed range from the previous election on 12 December 2019 to the election on Thursday, 4 July 2024.

At various dates in the run up to the 2024 general election on 4 July 2024, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The date range for opinion polls is from the 2019 general election, held on 12 December, to the eve of the 2024 election.

In the run-up to the 2025 German federal election, which will take place on 23 February 2025, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Germany. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Potential re-accession of the United Kingdom to the European Union</span>

Following a 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom exited from the European Union at the end of January 2020. Since leaving the EU, numerous polling organisations have conducted surveys to gauge public opinion on rejoining the organisation. The trend of the poll data shows that, over time, support for Brexit has waned, while public opinion in the UK has gradually moved in favour of rejoining the EU.

In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, first led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf until 10 April 2022 and then by Shehbaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), with the latter government being supported by the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People's Party. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

This article collates polling conducted for various geographical regions, including polls of individual constituencies. Polling covering all of the UK or Great Britain are collated in the article Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

References

  1. ↑ Pack, Mark (4 January 2025). "Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion polls". markpack.org.uk. Retrieved 5 January 2025.
  2. ↑ https://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/01/29th-Jan-VI-Find-Out-Now.xlsx
  3. ↑ https://x.com/survation/status/1884975994127155251
  4. ↑ https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51477-voting-intention-lab-27-ref-23-con-22-26-27-jan-2025
  5. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rv2b0fig/voting-intention-jan-27.xlsx
  6. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/VI-2025-01-22-Observer-Tables-Final.xlsx
  7. ↑ https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2007249/reform-nigel-farage-keir-starmer-poll
  8. ↑ https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/R138-UK-2024-1-24-DATA.pdf
  9. ↑ https://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/01/22nd-Jan-VI-Find-Out-Now.xlsx
  10. ↑ https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51428-voting-intention-lab-26-ref-24-con-22-19-20-jan-2025
  11. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/k4pp3jza/january-20-voting-intention.xlsx
  12. ↑ https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Deltapoll-IfG-Conference-250121.pdf
  13. ↑ https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/R137-UK-2024-1-17-DATA.pdf
  14. ↑ https://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/01/15th-Jan-VI-Find-Out-Now.xlsx
  15. ↑ https://jlpartners.co.uk/s/Voting-Intention-blyp.xlsx
  16. ↑ https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250113_w.pdf
  17. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/jffes4ou/january-13-vi-and-political-trackers.xlsx
  18. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/VI-2025-01-08-Observer-Tables.xlsx
  19. ↑ https://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/01/8th-Jan-VI-Find-Out-Now.xlsx
  20. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/uiwb2sat/january-8-voting-intention.xlsx
  21. ↑ https://deltapoll.co.uk/polls/mailonsunday-250106
  22. ↑ "POLARIS". JLP. Retrieved 28 December 2024.
  23. ↑ "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News . Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  24. ↑ "Poll predicts Scottish pro-independence majority at 2026 Holyrood vote". The National . 30 December 2024. Retrieved 30 December 2024.
  25. ↑ "IndyRef – 10 Years On". Opinium Research . 18 September 2024. Retrieved 5 December 2024.
  26. ↑ "Scotland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News . Archived from the original on 7 July 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
  27. ↑ https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/08145423/Wales_Tables.xlsx
  28. ↑ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News . Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  29. ↑ Walker, Ben. "The ultimate 2024 General Election breakdown". New Statesman. Retrieved 26 December 2024.
  30. ↑ Walker, Ben. "The ultimate 2024 General Election breakdown". New Statesman. Retrieved 26 December 2024.
  31. ↑ https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/04091630/CLA_2024-11-21_Tables.xlsx
  32. ↑ https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/04091630/CLA_2024-11-21_Tables.xlsx
  33. 1 2 Smith, Matthew (9 July 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK. Archived from the original on 12 July 2024. Retrieved 12 July 2024.
  34. 1 2 "5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.
  35. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rv2b0fig/voting-intention-jan-27.xlsx
  36. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/k4pp3jza/january-20-voting-intention.xlsx
  37. ↑ https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/31131622/Survation_31_12_2024_Tables.xlsx
  38. ↑ https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_Results_241213.pdf
  39. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/t5hh5rka/voting-intention-and-trackers.xlsx
  40. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2k1gii2h/november-voting-intention.xlsx
  41. ↑ https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_241111_RBwujCj.pdf
  42. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/xbccsbla/labour-100-days-mic-polling.xlsx
  43. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/5o5l5kfr/october-approval-tracker.xlsx
  44. ↑ https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Favourability_and_Labour_government_actions_230924.pdf
  45. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rd3bfnah/approval-tracking-and-labour-corruption.xlsx
  46. ↑ https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_240806.pdf
  47. ↑ https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49993-keir-starmer-favourability-rises-8pts-following-election-victory
  48. ↑ https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-07/ipsos-general-election-campaign-tracker-july-2024-tables.pdf
  49. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rv2b0fig/voting-intention-jan-27.xlsx
  50. ↑ https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1880613950858936765
  51. ↑ https://jlpartners.co.uk/s/Voting-Intention-blyp.xlsx
  52. ↑ https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1879433875581276439
  53. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/VI-2025-01-08-Observer-Tables.xlsx
  54. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/VI-2024-12-18-Observer-Data-Tables-211224.xlsx
  55. ↑ https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/despite-low-approval-ratings-public-prefers-starmer-pm-badenoch-or-farage-0
  56. ↑ https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/31131622/Survation_31_12_2024_Tables.xlsx
  57. ↑ https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/t5hh5rka/voting-intention-and-trackers.xlsx
  58. ↑ https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_Economy_241127_publish.pdf
  59. ↑ https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/press-and-polls/political-tracker-savanta-27-october-2024/
  60. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VI-2024-10-02-Observer-Tables-V3.xlsx
  61. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VI-2024-09-25-Final-Tables-v3.xlsx
  62. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Observer-VI-2024-09-18-Data-tables-V2.xlsx
  63. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/VI-2024-08-28-Observer-Tables.xlsx
  64. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/VI-2024-08-14-Observer-Tables.xlsx
  65. ↑ https://www.omnisis.co.uk/media/1401/np-2024-wk3-vi-097-report-tables-13-8-2024.xlsx
  66. ↑ https://opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/VI-2024-07-31-Observer-Tables.xlsx
  67. ↑ https://www.omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/np-2024-vi-wk2-96/
  68. ↑ https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/VI-2024-07-17-Observer-Tables-V2.xlsx
  69. ↑ https://omnisis.co.uk/media/1400/np-2024-wk1-vi-095-report-tables-12-7-2024.xlsx
  70. ↑ https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html
  71. ↑ https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Internal_ConLeader_241031.pdf
  72. ↑ https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/press-and-polls/political-tracker-savanta-27-october-2024/
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.