Opinion polling for UK general elections |
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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. [1] The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.
The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru stand candidates only in Wales and the Scottish National Party stand candidates only in Scotland. Due to rounding, total figures might not add up to 100%.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | SNP | PC | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 Sep | Zack Polanski is elected as leader of the Green Party of England and Wales | ||||||||||||
31 Aug – 1 Sep | YouGov [2] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,523 | 20% | 17% | 29% | 15% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 9 |
29–31 Aug | Freshwater Strategy [3] | City AM | GB | 1,251 | 20% | 17% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | – | 4% | 13 |
29 Aug | Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer are elected as co-leaders of the Scottish Greens | ||||||||||||
26–28 Aug | BMG Research [4] | The i Paper | GB | 1,504 | 20% | 17% | 35% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 15 |
27 Aug | Find Out Now [5] | N/A | GB | 2,538 | 18% | 15% | 34% | 13% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 16 |
25–26 Aug | YouGov [6] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,439 | 20% | 17% | 28% | 16% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 8 |
22–26 Aug | More in Common [7] | N/A | GB | 2,032 | 22% | 18% | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 8 |
20–22 Aug | Opinium [8] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 23% | 17% | 29% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 6 |
20 Aug | Find Out Now [9] | N/A | GB | 2,615 | 18% | 17% | 33% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 15 |
15–19 Aug | Focaldata [10] | N/A | GB | 1,500 | 24% | 18% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 5 |
17–18 Aug | YouGov [11] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,394 | 21% | 18% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 7 |
15–18 Aug | More in Common [12] | N/A | GB | 2,000 | 21% | 20% | 30% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 9 |
14–18 Aug | Lord Ashcroft Polls [13] [a] | N/A | GB | 5,029 | 23% | 20% | 27% | 11% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 4 |
13–14 Aug | Find Out Now [14] | N/A | GB | 2,513 | 19% | 19% | 31% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 12 |
10–11 Aug | YouGov [15] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,501 | 21% | 17% | 28% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 7 |
8–11 Aug | More in Common [16] | N/A | GB | 2,015 | 22% | 22% | 30% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 8 |
6–8 Aug | Opinium [17] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 22% | 17% | 31% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 9 |
6 Aug | Find Out Now [18] | N/A | GB | 2,627 | 20% | 16% | 32% | 12% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 12 |
3–4 Aug | YouGov [19] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,472 | 21% | 17% | 27% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 6 |
1–3 Aug | More in Common [20] | N/A | GB | 2,042 | 22% | 18% | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 9 |
1–3 Aug | Freshwater Strategy [21] | City AM | GB | 1,259 | 22% | 18% | 33% | 14% | 6% | 3% | – | 3% | 11 |
29–31 Jul | BMG Research [22] | The i Paper | GB | 1,528 | 23% | 18% | 32% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 9 |
30 Jul | Find Out Now [23] | N/A | GB | 2,654 | 20% | 17% | 30% | 13% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 10 |
27–28 Jul | YouGov [24] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,208 | 22% | 17% | 29% | 14% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 7 |
26–28 Jul | More in Common [25] | N/A | GB | 2,153 | 23% | 20% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 6 |
23–25 Jul | Opinium [26] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 25% | 17% | 32% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 7 |
23 Jul | Find Out Now [27] | N/A | GB | 2,651 | 20% | 16% | 34% | 14% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 14 |
20–21 Jul | YouGov [28] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,273 | 23% | 17% | 27% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
18–20 Jul | More in Common [29] | N/A | GB | 2,153 | 22% | 21% | 29% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 7 |
17–18 Jul | JL Partners [30] | The Telegraph | GB | 2,035 | 23% | 17% | 29% | 14% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 6 |
14–18 Jul | Focaldata [31] | N/A | GB | 1,271 | 23% | 19% | 27% | 14% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4 |
16 Jul | Find Out Now [32] | N/A | GB | 2,603 | 20% | 17% | 30% | 13% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 10 |
13–14 Jul | YouGov [33] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,209 | 22% | 17% | 28% | 16% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6 |
11–14 Jul | More in Common [34] | N/A | GB | 2,311 | 24% | 20% | 27% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3 |
9–11 Jul | Opinium [35] | The Observer | GB | 2,052 | 24% | 18% | 29% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5 |
9–10 Jul | Find Out Now [36] | MultiComms Ltd | GB | 1,308 | 21% | 16% | 34% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 13 |
9–10 Jul | Techne [37] | N/A | UK | 1,628 | 22% | 18% | 29% | 16% | 9% | 2% | – | 4% | 7 |
9 Jul | Find Out Now [38] | N/A | GB | 2,651 | 22% | 19% | 31% | 13% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 9 |
6–7 Jul | YouGov [39] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,513 | 24% | 16% | 26% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2 |
4–7 Jul | More in Common [40] | N/A | GB | 2,084 | 24% | 19% | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5 |
4–7 Jul | More in Common [41] | N/A | GB | 2,084 | 25% | 20% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3 |
4–6 Jul | Freshwater Strategy [42] | City AM | GB | 1,259 | 23% | 19% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 3% | – | 2% | 8 |
2 Jul | Find Out Now [43] | N/A | GB | 2,604 | 22% | 16% | 30% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 8 |
29–30 Jun | YouGov [44] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,392 | 24% | 17% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
27–30 Jun | More in Common [45] | N/A | GB | 2,532 | 24% | 19% | 29% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5 |
26–30 Jun | Lord Ashcroft Polls [46] [a] | The Mail on Sunday [47] | GB | 5,018 | 22% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 5 |
13–30 Jun | More in Common [48] (MRP) | N/A | GB | 11,282 | 22% | 21% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
25–27 Jun | Survation [49] | N/A | UK | 1,700 | 26% | 19% | 27% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 1 |
25–27 Jun | Opinium [50] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 25% | 17% | 30% | 12% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 5 |
25–26 Jun | Techne [51] | N/A | UK | 1,628 | 23% | 18% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | – | 4% | 5 |
25 Jun | Find Out Now [52] | N/A | GB | 2,605 | 22% | 18% | 30% | 13% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 8 |
24–25 Jun | BMG Research [53] | The i Paper | GB | 1,617 | 27% | 19% | 30% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
22–23 Jun | YouGov [54] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 1,794 | 23% | 17% | 27% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
20–23 Jun | More in Common [55] | N/A | GB | 2,004 | 23% | 20% | 27% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
18 Jun | Find Out Now [56] | N/A | GB | 2,628 | 23% | 16% | 31% | 12% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 8 |
29 May – 18 Jun | YouGov [57] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 17,227 | 23% | 17% | 27% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
29 May – 18 Jun | YouGov [58] (MRP) | N/A | GB | 11,500 | 23% | 18% | 26% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
10–17 Jun | Find Out Now Electoral Calculus [59] (MRP) | PLMR | GB | 5,444 | 22% | 19% | 31% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 9 |
15–16 Jun | YouGov [60] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,255 | 24% | 17% | 27% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
13–16 Jun | More in Common [61] | N/A | GB | 2,032 | 21% | 22% | 29% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 7 |
11–13 Jun | Opinium [62] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 24% | 18% | 30% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6 |
11 Jun | Find Out Now [63] | N/A | GB | 2,651 | 24% | 16% | 30% | 13% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
10–11 Jun | Survation [64] | Rogan Productions | UK | 2,010 | 25% | 21% | 27% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2 |
8–9 Jun | YouGov [65] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,196 | 23% | 17% | 29% | 15% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 6 |
6–9 Jun | More in Common [66] | N/A | GB | 2,073 | 24% | 20% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
6–8 Jun | Freshwater Strategy [67] [a] | City AM | GB | 1,260 | 21% | 21% | 32% | 14% | 8% | 2% | – | 2% | 11 |
4–5 Jun | Techne [68] | N/A | UK | 1,628 | 23% | 17% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | – | 4% | 8 |
4 Jun | Find Out Now [69] | N/A | GB | 1,962 | 22% | 16% | 31% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 9 |
30 May – 4 Jun | Ipsos [70] | N/A | UK | 1,180 | 25% | 15% | 34% | 11% | 9% | – | – | 6% | 9 |
1–2 Jun | YouGov [71] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,240 | 22% | 18% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
30 May – 2 Jun | More in Common [72] | N/A | GB | 2,016 | 23% | 21% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 5 |
30 May – 2 Jun | Survation [73] | N/A | UK | 916 | 24% | 20% | 27% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3 |
29 May – 2 Jun | Lord Ashcroft Polls [74] [a] | N/A | GB | 5,147 | 23% | 18% | 27% | 13% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 4 |
28–30 May | Opinium [75] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 25% | 17% | 31% | 11% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
28–29 May | BMG Research [76] | The i Paper | GB | 1,510 | 24% | 18% | 31% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 7 |
28–29 May | Techne [77] | N/A | UK | 1,647 | 22% | 16% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 2% | – | 4% | 9 |
28 May | Find Out Now [78] | N/A | GB | 2,447 | 22% | 16% | 32% | 13% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 10 |
26–27 May | YouGov [79] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,013 | 21% | 19% | 29% | 15% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 8 |
23–26 May | More in Common [80] | N/A | GB | 2,000 | 22% | 19% | 31% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 9 |
21–22 May | Techne [81] | N/A | UK | 1,641 | 22% | 17% | 30% | 16% | 9% | 2% | – | 4% | 8 |
21 May | Find Out Now [82] | N/A | GB | 2,501 | 21% | 16% | 32% | 14% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 11 |
18–19 May | YouGov [79] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,222 | 22% | 16% | 29% | 17% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 7 |
16–19 May | More in Common [83] | N/A | GB | 2,090 | 22% | 21% | 30% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 8 |
14–16 May | Opinium [84] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 25% | 18% | 29% | 13% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
14–15 May | Techne [85] | N/A | UK | 1,645 | 22% | 18% | 29% | 15% | 9% | 2% | – | 5% | 7 |
14 May | Find Out Now [86] | N/A | GB | 2,557 | 21% | 16% | 33% | 14% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 12 |
11–12 May | YouGov [87] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,310 | 23% | 18% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5 |
10–12 May | More in Common [88] | N/A | GB | 2,094 | 25% | 20% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3 |
9–11 May | Freshwater Strategy [89] [a] | City AM | GB | 1,250 | 22% | 19% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | – | 2% | 10 |
7–8 May | Techne [90] | N/A | UK | 1,635 | 23% | 19% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 3% | – | 5% | 5 |
6–8 May | BMG Research [91] | The i Paper | GB | 1,525 | 22% | 19% | 32% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 10 |
7 May | Find Out Now [92] | N/A | GB | 2,210 | 20% | 16% | 33% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 13 |
5–6 May | YouGov [93] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,187 | 22% | 17% | 29% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 7 |
2–5 May | Survation [94] | True North Advisors | UK | 2,032 | 25% | 18% | 30% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5 |
3–4 May | More in Common [95] | N/A | GB | 2,212 | 23% | 21% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
30 Apr – 2 May | Opinium [96] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 26% | 19% | 27% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
30 Apr – 2 May | Survation [97] | N/A | UK | 1,056 | 26% | 22% | 26% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 3% | Tie |
1 May | Local elections in England, and Runcorn and Helsby by-election, a Reform gain from Labour | ||||||||||||
30 Apr | Find Out Now [98] | N/A | GB | 1,990 | 21% | 19% | 29% | 13% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 8 |
27–28 Apr | YouGov [99] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,214 | 23% | 20% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
25–27 Apr | More in Common [100] | N/A | GB | 2,009 | 24% | 23% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 4% | Tie |
23–25 Apr | Opinium [101] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 26% | 21% | 26% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
23–24 Apr | Techne [102] | N/A | UK | 1,642 | 25% | 21% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 2% | – | 5% | Tie |
23 Apr | Find Out Now [103] | N/A | GB | 2,139 | 20% | 20% | 28% | 14% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 8 |
21–22 Apr | YouGov [104] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,012 | 23% | 20% | 25% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
17–21 Apr | More in Common [105] | N/A | GB | 2,004 | 23% | 23% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2 |
16 Apr | Find Out Now [106] | N/A | GB | 2,288 | 22% | 20% | 28% | 14% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6 |
13–14 Apr | YouGov [107] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,399 | 24% | 21% | 23% | 14% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
11–14 Apr | More in Common [108] | N/A | GB | 2,277 | 24% | 23% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | Tie |
11–14 Apr | Focaldata [109] | N/A | GB | 1,585 | 24% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 4% | Tie |
10–14 Apr | Lord Ashcroft Polls [110] [a] | N/A | GB | 5,263 | 27% | 24% | 21% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3 |
8–14 Apr | Verian [111] | N/A | GB | 1,285 | 25% | 19% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1 |
9–11 Apr | Opinium [112] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 27% | 22% | 26% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
9–10 Apr | Techne [113] | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 24% | 22% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 2% | – | 5% | Tie |
9 Apr | Find Out Now [114] | N/A | GB | 2,546 | 22% | 21% | 26% | 14% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
6–7 Apr | YouGov [115] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,402 | 24% | 22% | 23% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
4–7 Apr | More in Common [116] | N/A | GB | 2,058 | 24% | 23% | 24% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1% | Tie |
4–6 Apr | Freshwater Strategy [117] [a] | City AM | GB | 1,250 | 22% | 27% | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | – | 3% | 1 |
2–3 Apr | Techne [118] | N/A | UK | 1,631 | 24% | 23% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 3% | – | 5% | Tie |
2 Apr | Find Out Now [119] | N/A | GB | 2,768 | 22% | 20% | 28% | 13% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6 |
14 Mar – 1 Apr | More in Common (MRP) [120] | N/A | GB | 16,176 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 2% | – | 4% | Tie |
30–31 Mar | YouGov [121] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,392 | 24% | 21% | 23% | 14% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
28–31 Mar | More in Common [122] | N/A | GB | 2,081 | 21% | 26% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1 |
26–28 Mar | Opinium [123] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 26% | 22% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
21–28 Mar | Find Out Now Electoral Calculus [124] (MRP) | PLMR [125] | GB | 5,180 | 24% | 22% | 27% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3 |
26–27 Mar | BMG Research [126] | The i Paper [127] | GB | 1,544 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2 |
26–27 Mar | Techne [128] | N/A | UK | 1,642 | 25% | 23% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 2% | – | 4% | 1 |
26 Mar | Find Out Now [129] | N/A | GB | 2,745 | 23% | 22% | 26% | 12% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
23–24 Mar | YouGov [130] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,333 | 23% | 22% | 22% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
22–24 Mar | More in Common [131] | N/A | GB | 2,432 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
19–21 Mar | Opinium [132] | The Observer | GB | 2,078 | 26% | 21% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | Tie |
19–20 Mar | Techne [133] | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 27% | 23% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 2% | – | 4% | 4 |
19 Mar | Find Out Now [134] | N/A | GB | 2,770 | 22% | 21% | 27% | 14% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5 |
16–17 Mar | YouGov [135] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,315 | 26% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
14–17 Mar | Deltapoll [136] | N/A | GB | 1,974 | 25% | 25% | 23% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
14–17 Mar | More in Common [137] | N/A | GB | 2,432 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4% | Tie |
13–17 Mar | Lord Ashcroft Polls [138] [a] | N/A | GB | 5,111 | 30% | 24% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 6 |
12–13 Mar | Techne [139] | N/A | UK | 1,638 | 27% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2% | – | 4% | 3 |
12 Mar | Find Out Now [140] | N/A | GB | 2,686 | 24% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
9–10 Mar | YouGov [141] | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,291 | 24% | 22% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
7–10 Mar | More in Common [142] | N/A | GB | 2,041 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
6–9 Mar | JL Partners [143] | The Sun | GB | 2,012 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2 |
5–7 Mar | Opinium [144] | The Observer | GB | 1,498 | 28% | 20% | 27% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
5–6 Mar | Techne [145] | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 28% | 21% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 4% | 3 |
5 Mar | Find Out Now [146] | N/A | GB | 2,670 | 25% | 21% | 26% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
2–3 Mar | YouGov [147] | The Times | GB | 2,222 | 26% | 21% | 25% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
1–2 Mar | Freshwater Strategy [148] [a] | City AM | GB | 1,215 | 24% | 23% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | – | 2% | 3 |
28 Feb – 2 Mar | More in Common [149] | N/A | GB | 2,010 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
26–28 Feb | Focaldata [150] | N/A | GB | 1,008 | 24% | 22% | 21% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2 |
26–27 Feb | Techne [151] | N/A | UK | 1,643 | 26% | 22% | 25% | 13% | 8% | 2% | – | 4% | 1 |
26 Feb | Find Out Now [152] | N/A | GB | 3,363 | 23% | 21% | 28% | 13% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 5 |
25–26 Feb | BMG Research [153] | The i Paper | GB | 1,586 | 26% | 22% | 27% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1 |
23–24 Feb | YouGov [154] | Sky News / The Times | GB | 2,415 | 24% | 22% | 25% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
21–24 Feb | More in Common [155] | N/A | GB | 2,013 | 23% | 25% | 24% | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1 |
19–21 Feb | Opinium [156] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 28% | 21% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 3% | – | 2% | 2 |
19–20 Feb | Techne [157] | N/A | UK | 1,639 | 25% | 22% | 26% | 12% | 7% | 3% | – | 5% | 1 |
19 Feb | Find Out Now [158] | N/A | GB | 2,393 | 24% | 20% | 28% | 12% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
14–18 Feb | More in Common [159] | N/A | GB | 4,101 | 25% | 23% | 26% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
16–17 Feb | YouGov [160] | N/A | GB | 2,436 | 25% | 21% | 27% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2 |
13–17 Feb | Lord Ashcroft Polls [161] [a] | N/A | GB | 5,099 | 28% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 5 |
12–13 Feb | Techne [162] | N/A | UK | 1,637 | 26% | 22% | 25% | 12% | 8% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
12 Feb | Find Out Now [163] | N/A | GB | 3,421 | 23% | 21% | 29% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
9–10 Feb | YouGov [164] | N/A | GB | 2,419 | 25% | 21% | 26% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1 |
7–10 Feb | More in Common [165] | N/A | GB | 2,005 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | Tie |
5–7 Feb | Opinium [166] | The Observer | GB | 1,493 | 27% | 22% | 26% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
5–6 Feb | Techne [167] | N/A | UK | 1,645 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | Tie |
5 Feb | Find Out Now [168] | N/A | GB | 2,487 | 25% | 18% | 29% | 13% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
2–3 Feb | YouGov [169] | Sky News [170] | GB | 2,465 | 24% | 21% | 25% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
31 Jan – 3 Feb | More in Common [171] | N/A | GB | 2,044 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2 |
31 Jan – 2 Feb | Freshwater Strategy [172] [a] | City AM | GB | 1,200 | 29% | 28% | 22% | 9% | 7% | 3% | – | 2% | 1 |
29–30 Jan | Techne [173] | N/A | UK | 1,633 | 26% | 23% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | – | 5% | 2 |
29 Jan | Find Out Now [174] | N/A | GB | 2,487 | 23% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
28–29 Jan | BMG Research [175] | The i Paper | GB | 1,514 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | Tie |
28–29 Jan | Survation [176] | N/A | UK | 1,670 | 27% | 22% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 3% | – | 4% | 3 |
26–27 Jan | YouGov [177] | The Times | GB | 2,523 | 27% | 22% | 23% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
24–27 Jan | More in Common [178] | N/A | GB | 2,009 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% | Tie |
22–29 Jan | Find Out Now Electoral Calculus [179] (MRP) | PLMR | GB | 5,743 | 23% | 23% | 24% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 1 |
22–24 Jan | Opinium [180] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 28% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
22–23 Jan | Whitestone Insight [181] | Daily Express | GB | 2,012 | 25% | 20% | 24% | 12% | 13% | 3% | – | 3% | 1 |
22–23 Jan | Techne [182] | N/A | UK | 1,643 | 25% | 24% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
22 Jan | Find Out Now [183] | N/A | GB | 2,380 | 22% | 23% | 26% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3 |
19–20 Jan | YouGov [184] | The Times | GB | 2,466 | 26% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
17–20 Jan | More in Common [185] | N/A | GB | 2,016 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | Tie |
17–20 Jan | Deltapoll [186] | Institute for Government | GB | 1,500 | 29% | 25% | 22% | 11% | 8% | 3% | – | 2% | 4 |
16–20 Jan | Lord Ashcroft Polls [187] [a] | N/A | GB | 5,251 | 28% | 25% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3 |
15–16 Jan | Techne [188] | N/A | UK | 1,624 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
15 Jan | Find Out Now [189] | N/A | GB | 2,386 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
10–14 Jan | JL Partners [190] | The Sunday Times | GB | 2,007 | 26% | 25% | 22% | 13% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
12–13 Jan | YouGov [191] | The Times | GB | 2,279 | 26% | 22% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
10–13 Jan | More in Common [192] | N/A | GB | 1,587 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
8–10 Jan | Opinium [193] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 29% | 23% | 24% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5 |
8 Jan | Find Out Now [194] | N/A | GB | 2,076 | 25% | 20% | 25% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
6–8 Jan | More in Common [195] | N/A | GB | 2,011 | 26% | 26% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
4–6 Jan | Freshwater Strategy [196] [a] | City AM | GB | 1,207 | 28% | 29% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 3% | – | 1% | 1 |
30 Dec – 3 Jan | Deltapoll [197] | Mail on Sunday | GB | 1,532 | 30% | 23% | 22% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 7 |
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | SNP | PC | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19–23 Dec | Deltapoll [198] | The Mirror | GB | 1,552 | 29% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 4 |
18–20 Dec | Opinium [199] | The Observer | GB | 1,472 | 29% | 23% | 22% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
18–19 Dec | Techne [200] | N/A | UK | 1,642 | 27% | 26% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
12–16 Dec | Survation [201] | N/A | UK | 2,030 | 30% | 25% | 20% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5 |
11–12 Dec | Techne [202] | N/A | UK | 1,634 | 27% | 25% | 22% | 11% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 2 |
11 Dec | Find Out Now [203] | N/A | GB | 2,659 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
6–10 Dec | More in Common [204] | N/A | GB | 2,432 | 26% | 26% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | Tie |
6–9 Dec | Stonehaven [205] (MRP) | N/A | GB | 2,072 | 28% | 24% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
5–6 Dec | Techne [206] | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 27% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 2 |
4 Dec | Find Out Now [207] | N/A | GB | 2,607 | 23% | 26% | 24% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
29 Nov – 2 Dec | More in Common [208] | N/A | GB | 2,002 | 26% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
27–29 Nov | Opinium [209] | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 29% | 25% | 21% | 10% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
27–28 Nov | Techne [210] | N/A | UK | 1,648 | 28% | 27% | 18% | 13% | 6% | 2% | – | 6% | 1 |
27 Nov | Find Out Now [211] | N/A | GB | 2,316 | 25% | 27% | 22% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
26–27 Nov | BMG Research [212] | The i Paper | GB | 1,531 | 29% | 27% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2 |
26–27 Nov | More in Common [213] | N/A | GB | 1,972 | 27% | 30% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
20–21 Nov | Techne [214] | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 29% | 27% | 17% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 2 |
19–21 Nov | More in Common [215] | N/A | GB | 2,002 | 25% | 28% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3 |
14–18 Nov | Deltapoll [216] | N/A | GB | 1,749 | 29% | 27% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2 |
13–14 Nov | JL Partners [217] | The Sun / Politico | GB | 2,024 | 27% | 26% | 20% | 12% | 9% | 3% | – | 3% | 1 |
13–14 Nov | Techne [218] | N/A | GB | 1,643 | 28% | 27% | 17% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 1 |
11–13 Nov | Opinium [219] | The Observer | GB | 1,646 | 30% | 24% | 21% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 6 |
8–11 Nov | More in Common [220] | N/A | GB | 2,007 | 27% | 29% | 19% | 11% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2 |
6–7 Nov | Techne [221] | N/A | UK | 1,636 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 4 |
2 Nov | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||||||||
31 Oct – 16 Dec | More in Common [222] (MRP) | N/A | GB | 11,024 | 25% | 26% | 21% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
30 Oct – 1 Nov | More in Common [223] | N/A | GB | 2,007 | 28% | 26% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2 |
30–31 Oct | Opinium [224] | The Observer | GB | 1,548 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7 |
30–31 Oct | BMG Research [225] | The i Paper | GB | 1,511 | 28% | 29% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
30–31 Oct | Techne [226] | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 30% | 24% | 18% | 14% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 6 |
23–24 Oct | Techne [227] | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 29% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 5 |
16–18 Oct | Opinium [228] | The Observer | GB | 1,565 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 7 |
16–17 Oct | Techne [229] | N/A | UK | 1,636 | 28% | 25% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 3 |
11–13 Oct | JL Partners [230] | The Telegraph | GB | 2,000 | 29% | 25% | 19% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
9–10 Oct | Techne [231] | N/A | UK | 1,651 | 29% | 24% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 7% | 5 |
9–10 Oct | More in Common [232] | The Times | GB | 2,000 | 27% | 27% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | Tie |
5–7 Oct | More in Common [233] | Politico | GB | 2,023 | 29% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1 |
4–7 Oct | Deltapoll [234] | N/A | GB | 2,108 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 4 |
2–4 Oct | Opinium [235] | The Observer | GB | 1,491 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 3% | – | 2% | 7 |
2–3 Oct | BMG Research [236] | i | GB | 1,562 | 30% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 5 |
2–3 Oct | Techne [237] | N/A | UK | 1,643 | 31% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 8 |
25–26 Sep | Techne [238] | N/A | UK | 1,638 | 32% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 10 |
24–25 Sep | More in Common [239] | N/A | GB | 2,080 | 30% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
18–23 Sep | Verian [240] | N/A | GB | 1,258 | 31% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5 |
18–19 Sep | Techne [241] | The Independent | UK | 1,641 | 33% | 21% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 12 |
10–12 Sep | More in Common [242] | Politico | GB | 1,542 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4 |
29 Aug | BMG Research [243] | i | GB | 1,560 | 30% | 26% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
7–8 Aug | We Think [244] | N/A | GB | 1,278 | 33% | 20% | 21% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 12 |
5–7 Aug | BMG Research [245] | i | GB | 1,523 | 33% | 24% | 18% | 12% | 8% | – | – | 4% | 9 |
30 Jul – 5 Aug | Stonehaven [246] | N/A | GB | 2,048 | 34% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 9% | – | – | 6% | 12 |
25–26 Jul | We Think [247] | N/A | GB | 2,012 | 36% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 14 |
11–12 Jul | We Think [248] | N/A | GB | 2,005 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 9% | 2% | – | 3% | 19 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | – | 33.7% | 23.7% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 6.1% | 10.0 |
GB | 34.7% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 3.5% | 10.3 |
326 seats needed for a majority.
Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Area | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Ref | Grn | Plaid | Others | Majority |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13–30 Jun 2025 | More in Common [48] | N/A | 11,282 | GB | 126 | 81 | 73 | 42 | 290 | 7 | 4 | 8 | Hung (Ref 36 short) |
29 May – 18 Jun 2025 | YouGov [58] | N/A | 11,500 | GB | 178 | 46 | 81 | 38 | 271 | 7 | 7 | 3 | Hung (Ref 55 short) |
10–17 Jun 2025 | Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now [59] | PLMR | 5,444 | GB | 118 | 29 | 69 | 26 | 377 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Ref 104 |
14 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 | More in Common [120] | N/A | 16,176 | GB | 165 | 165 | 67 | 35 | 180 | 4 | 5 | 10 | Hung (Ref 146 short) |
21–28 Mar 2025 | Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now [124] | PLMR [125] | 5,180 | GB | 180 | 133 | 49 | 30 | 227 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Hung (Ref 99 short) |
22–29 Jan 2025 | Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now [249] | PLMR [250] | 5,743 | GB | 174 | 178 | 57 | 37 | 175 | 4 | 2 | 5 | Hung (Con 148 short) |
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025 | Focaldata [251] | Hope not Hate [252] | 17,790 | GB | 287 | 163 | 63 | 22 | 76 | 4 | 4 | 13 | Hung (Lab 39 short) |
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024 | More in Common [222] | N/A | 11,024 | GB | 228 | 222 | 58 | 37 | 72 | 2 | 4 | 26 [b] | Hung (Lab 98 short) |
6–9 Dec 2024 | Stonehaven [205] | N/A | 2,072 | GB | 278 | 157 | 47 | 24 | 120 | 3 | 2 | 19 [b] | Hung (Lab 48 short) |
2 Nov 2024 | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||||||||
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | 411 | 121 | 72 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | Lab 172 |
Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes. [253] All models from January onwards are combined with a representative survey data, with the data used shifted to reflect the pollsters' most recent national polling.
Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Area | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Ref | Grn | Plaid | Others | Majority |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 2025 | J.L. Partners [254] | N/A | 306,817 | GB | 218 | 136 | 70 | 41 | 135 | 5 | 3 | 39 | Hung (Lab 108 short) |
January 2025 | J.L. Partners [255] | N/A | 306,817 | GB | 200 | 190 | 70 | 42 | 102 | 7 | 4 | 34 | Hung (Lab 126 short) |
December 2024 | J.L. Partners [256] | N/A | 280,000 | GB | 256 | 208 | 66 | 6 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 33 | Hung (Lab 70 short) |
2 Nov 2024 | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||||||||
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | 411 | 121 | 72 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | Lab 172 |
Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Sinn Féin | DUP | Alliance | UUP | SDLP | TUV | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | 27.0% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9 |
Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | SNP | Con | LD | Ref | Grn | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 Aug | Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer are elected as co-leaders of the Scottish Greens | ||||||||||
13–19 Jun 2025 | YouGov [257] | Scottish Election Study | 1,178 | 19% | 29% | 10% | 11% | 22% | 7% | 1% | 7 |
12–18 Jun 2025 | Ipsos [258] | STV News | 1,064 | 22% | 31% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 10% | 1% | 9 |
27–30 May 2025 | Norstat [259] | The Times | 1,007 | 20% | 31% | 12% | 8% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 10 |
2–5 May 2025 | Survation [260] | True North | 1,020 | 19% | 32% | 11% | 11% | 21% | 5% | 0% | 11 |
16–22 Apr 2025 | Survation [261] | Diffley Partnership | 1,005 | 24% | 33% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 5% | 0% | 9 |
25 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 | YouGov [262] | Scottish Election Study | 1,164 | 21% | 32% | 12% | 7% | 19% | 7% | 1% | 11 |
15–20 Jan 2025 | Find Out Now [263] | The Herald | 1,334 | 18% | 31% | 12% | 10% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 13 |
11–14 Jan 2025 | Norstat [264] | The Sunday Times | 1,026 | 18% | 32% | 13% | 11% | 17% | 6% | 3% | 14 |
7–13 Jan 2025 | Survation [265] | N/A | 1,024 | 24% | 33% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 9 |
17–24 Dec 2024 | Find Out Now [266] | The National [267] | 1,774 | 20% | 34% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 14 |
4–6 Dec 2024 | Norstat [268] | The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 20% | 31% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 4% Alba on 3% Other on 1% | 11 |
1–15 Nov 2024 | Survation [269] | Progress Scotland | 3,016 | 28% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 3% Alba on 2% Other on 1% | 3 |
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 | Norstat [270] | The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 23% | 30% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 6% | 2% Alba on 1% Other on 1% | 7 |
27 Sep 2024 | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||||||
10–13 Sep 2024 | Survation [271] | Progress Scotland | 2,059 | 31% | 31% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 3% | 1% Alba on 1% Other on 0% | Tie |
5–11 Sep 2024 | Opinium [272] | The Sunday Times [273] | 1,028 | 25% | 32% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 7 |
20–22 Aug 2024 | Norstat [274] | The Sunday Times | 1,011 | 32% | 29% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 5% | 2% Alba on 2% Other on 1% | 3 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election [275] | – | 35.3% | 30.0% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 5.3 |
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | PC | LD | Grn | Oth | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23–30 Apr 2025 | YouGov [276] | Barn Cymru | 1,248 | 20% | 13% | 24% | 24% | 9% | 7% | 2% | Tie |
10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 | Survation [277] | N/A | 844 | 29% | 15% | 25% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 4 |
3–5 Dec 2024 | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | ||||||||||
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 | Survation [278] | Reform UK | 2,006 | 33% | 18% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 12 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election [279] | – | 37.0% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 18.8 |
In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14–21 Nov 2024 | Survation [280] | Country Land and Business Association | 1,007 | 34% | 21% | 18% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 13 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election (Survation) [280] | – | 33.9% | 23.6% | 19.1% | 16.1% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 10.4 |
In April 2025, Survation conducted a survey of Northern England and the Midlands.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11–13 Apr 2025 | Survation [281] | Friderichs Advisory Partners | 2,032 | 27% | 22% | 30% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 3 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | 39.6% | 23.8% | 17.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 15.9 |
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | Grn | Ref | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 Apr – 21 May 2025 | Savanta [282] | QMUL | 1,003 | 32% | 21% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 6% | 11 |
4–8 May 2025 | Find Out Now [283] | Alex Wilson | 1,102 | 30% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 4% | 11 |
30 Oct – 11 Nov 2024 | Savanta [284] | QMUL | 1,004 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 4% | 12 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | 43.0% | 20.6% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 22.7 |
For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Hypothetical Conservative leader | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Ref | Grn | Plaid | Others | Majority / lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11–15 Oct 2024 | Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) [285] | Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick | GB | 6,289 | Kemi Badenoch | Seats | 332 | 151 | 63 | 48 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Lab 14 |
Vote share | 29% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 21% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 7 | ||||||
Robert Jenrick | Seats | 311 | 178 | 58 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Hung (Labour 15 short) | |||||
Vote share | 28% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 20% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 5 |
In February 2025, YouGov conducted polling on scenarios wherein only two parties appear to have a chance of winning a constituency. [286]
Dates conducted | Pollster | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Don't know | Would not vote/refused | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative–Reform races | ||||||||||||
23–24 Feb 2025 | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 10% | 26% | 25% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 18% | 1 |
Conservative–Lib Dem races | ||||||||||||
23–24 Feb 2025 | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 5% | 25% | 7% | 33% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 17% | 8 |
Conservative–Labour races | ||||||||||||
23–24 Feb 2025 | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 31% | 28% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 17% | 3 |
Labour–Reform races | ||||||||||||
23–24 Feb 2025 | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 35% | 4% | 31% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 16% | 4 |
Lib Dem–Reform races | ||||||||||||
23–24 Feb 2025 | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 5% | 4% | 29% | 36% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 7 |
In July 2025, the Government announced their intention to reduce the voting age to 16. [287] Following this, some pollsters conducted polling including 16 and 17 year-olds, although the voting age has not yet been reduced.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | SNP | PC | Oth | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14–18 Jul 2025 | Focaldata [288] | MultiComms Ltd | GB | 1,307 | 23% | 19% | 26% | 14% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 3 |
Some pollsters also conducted polling solely among 16 and 17 year olds, or broke out an oversample of this group.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | SNP | PC | Your | Oth | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7–28 Aug 2025 | More in Common [289] | The Sunday Times | GB | 1,115 | 24% | 13% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 0% | 1 |
30% | 14% | 23% | 14% | 14% | 3% | 0% | – | 3% | 7 | |||||
14–18 Jul 2025 | Focaldata [288] | MultiComms Ltd | GB | 274 (oversample) | 35% | 11% | 17% | 7% | 19% | 4% | 1% | – | 6% 4% independents, 2% other parties | 16 |
4–6 Jul 2025 | Merlin Strategy [290] | ITV News | GB | 500 | 33% | 10% | 20% | 12% | 18% | 2% | 0% | – | 6% 3% independents, 3% other parties | 13 |
Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana have stated their intention to found a new political party, provisionally referred to as "Your Party" pending the adoption of a permanent name. [291] Prior to that announcement, polling was carried out about the idea for a hypothetical new party. Since the announcement, more polling has been carried out, but the party has not yet been included in headline voting intention polls.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | SNP | PC | Your | Oth | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15–19 Aug 2025 | Focaldata [10] | N/A | GB | 1,500 | 23% | 18% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4% [c] | 3% | 5 |
29–31 Jul 2025 | BMG Research [292] | The i Paper | GB | 1,528 | 20% | 19% | 31% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 6% [d] | 2% | 11 |
24 Jul 2025 | Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn announce a new political party | |||||||||||||
9–10 Jul 2025 | Find Out Now [36] | MultiComms Ltd | GB | 1,308 | 15% | 17% | 34% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 15% [e] | 1% | 17 |
4–7 Jul 2025 | More in Common [293] | N/A | GB | 2,084 | 22% | 20% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 8% [f] | 1% | 5 |
20–23 Jun 2025 | More in Common [294] | N/A | GB | 2,004 | 20% | 20% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 10% [f] | 1% | 7 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | GB | – | 34.7% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | N/A | 3.5% | 10.3 |
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