Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

Contents

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

Opinion polling graph for the next United Kingdom general election (post-2024).svg

Voting intention polling

National polling

Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientAreaSample
size
Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green OthersLead
18–19 Sep Techne IndependentGBN/A33%21%18%13%7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
12
10–12 Sep More in Common PoliticoGB1,54229%25%18%14%8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
4
29 Aug BMG Research The iGB1,56030%26%19%12%8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
4
7–8 Aug We Think N/AGB1,27833%20%21%11%8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Independents on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
12
5–7 Aug BMG Research The iGB1,52333%24%18%12%8%4%9
30 Jul5 Aug Stonehaven N/AGB2,04834%22%17%12%9%6%12
25–26 Jul We Think N/AGB2,01236%22%17%11%7%
7%
Independents on 3%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
14
11–12 Jul We Think N/AGB2,00539%20%16%11%9%5%19
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election UK33.7%23.7%14.3%12.2%6.8%9.3%10.0
GB34.7%24.4%14.7%12.5%6.9%6.8%10.3

By constituent country

Northern Ireland

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV OthersLead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [1] 27.0%22.1%15.0%12.2%11.1%6.2%6.4%4.9

Scotland

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab. SNP Con. LD Ref. Green OthersLead
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation Progress Scotland2,05931%31%14%9%11%-4%Tie
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium Sunday Times1,02825%32%14%8%11%7%2%7
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,01132%29%12%8%12%5%2%3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election 35.3%30.0%12.7%9.7%7.0%3.8%1.6%5.3

Wales

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab. Con. Ref. Plaid Cymru LD Green OthersLead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [2] 37.0%18.2%16.9%14.8%6.5%4.7%1.9%18.8

Leadership approval polling

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates
conducted
PollsterSample
size
Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,05024%50%–2621%46%–2527%39%–1224%21%+3
29 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,56028%44%–1622%46%–2428%37%–919%21%–2
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common 2,01527%43%–1617%58%–41
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,00032%38%–620%50%–3024%43%–1921%21%-
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think 1,27833%42%–922%57%–3529%44%–1518%36%–1814%28%–1410%26%–16
5–7 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,52330%33%–319%42%–2323%37%–1421%16%+5
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov 2,16337%53%–1623%71%–4825%67%–42
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,06335%32%+318%48%–3025%40%–1524%19%+519%17%+219%17%+2
30–31 Jul 2024 YouGov 2,23340%49%–923%70%–4727%62%–3527%33%–69%12%–33%10%–7
30 JulBeginning of the 2024 United Kingdom riots
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think 2,01242%37%+525%61%–3630%50%–2021%36%–1516%34%–1812%32%–20
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,01038%20%+1820%42%–2225%18%+721%15%+621%15%+6
8–14 Jul 2024 Morning Consult 45%25%+20
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,00538%15%+2321%31%–10
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov [3] 2,10244%47%–323%70%–4727%65%–3834%29%+513%16%–37%14%–7
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos [4] 1,14140%33%+721%57%–3626%52%–2629%26%+3

Party approval polling

Dates
conducted
PollsterSample
size
Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common 2,01525%45%–2015%57%–42
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov 2,16339%53%–1423%70%–47
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov [3] 2,10247%46%+121%72%–5128%62%–3445%37%+846%38%+8
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos [4] 1,14140%34%+620%59%–3925%51%–2629%28%+133%28%+6

Preferred prime minister polling

Some opinion pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister:

Dates
conducted
PollsterSample
size
Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay NoneDon't knowLead
28–30 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,04034%15%40%11%19
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think 1,27826%10%20%5%2%2%20%15%6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,06338%14%37%11%24
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think 2,01230%11%18%4%3%1%18%15%12
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,01037%14%34%15%23
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,00530%11%14%5%4%1%33%16

See also

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References

  1. "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  2. "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  3. 1 2 Smith, Matthew (9 July 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK.
  4. 1 2 "5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.