Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Last updated

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. [1] The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

Contents

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

Opinion polling graph for the next United Kingdom general election (post-2024).svg

National poll results

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru stand candidates only in Wales and the Scottish National Party stand candidates only in Scotland. Due to rounding, total figures might not add up to 100%.

2025

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientAreaSample
size
Lab Con Ref LD Grn SNP PC OthersLead
2 Sep Zack Polanski is elected as leader of the Green Party of England and Wales
31 Aug1 SepYouGov [2] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,52320%17%29%15%10%3%1%5%9
29–31 AugFreshwater Strategy [3] City AMGB1,25120%17%33%15%7%3%4%13
29 Aug Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer are elected as co-leaders of the Scottish Greens
26–28 AugBMG Research [4] The i PaperGB1,50420%17%35%13%7%2%1%4%15
27 AugFind Out Now [5] N/AGB2,53818%15%34%13%10%2%1%6%16
25–26 AugYouGov [6] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,43920%17%28%16%11%3%1%4%8
22–26 AugMore in Common [7] N/AGB2,03222%18%30%14%7%3%1%5%8
20–22 AugOpinium [8] The ObserverGB2,05023%17%29%14%9%3%1%5%6
20 AugFind Out Now [9] N/AGB2,61518%17%33%12%10%3%1%6%15
15–19 AugFocaldata [10] N/AGB1,50024%18%29%14%8%2%1%4%5
17–18 AugYouGov [11] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,39421%18%28%15%10%3%1%4%7
15–18 AugMore in Common [12] N/AGB2,00021%20%30%13%8%3%1%5%9
14–18 AugLord Ashcroft Polls [13] [a] N/AGB5,02923%20%27%11%11%2%0%6%4
13–14 AugFind Out Now [14] N/AGB2,51319%19%31%12%10%3%1%6%12
10–11 AugYouGov [15] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,50121%17%28%16%10%3%1%5%7
8–11 AugMore in Common [16] N/AGB2,01522%22%30%13%6%2%0%4%8
6–8 AugOpinium [17] The ObserverGB2,05022%17%31%13%9%3%1%4%9
6 AugFind Out Now [18] N/AGB2,62720%16%32%12%9%2%1%7%12
3–4 AugYouGov [19] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,47221%17%27%15%11%3%1%4%6
1–3 AugMore in Common [20] N/AGB2,04222%18%31%14%7%3%1%4%9
1–3 AugFreshwater Strategy [21] City AMGB1,25922%18%33%14%6%3%3%11
29–31 JulBMG Research [22] The i PaperGB1,52823%18%32%13%8%2%1%3%9
30 JulFind Out Now [23] N/AGB2,65420%17%30%13%10%2%1%7%10
27–28 JulYouGov [24] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,20822%17%29%14%11%3%1%4%7
26–28 JulMore in Common [25] N/AGB2,15323%20%29%13%7%3%1%5%6
23–25 JulOpinium [26] The ObserverGB2,05025%17%32%13%8%3%1%2%7
23 JulFind Out Now [27] N/AGB2,65120%16%34%14%10%3%1%4%14
20–21 JulYouGov [28] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,27323%17%27%15%11%3%1%3%4
18–20 JulMore in Common [29] N/AGB2,15322%21%29%15%8%2%1%2%7
17–18 JulJL Partners [30] The TelegraphGB2,03523%17%29%14%9%2%1%4%6
14–18 JulFocaldata [31] N/AGB1,27123%19%27%14%9%2%1%5%4
16 JulFind Out Now [32] N/AGB2,60320%17%30%13%12%2%1%4%10
13–14 JulYouGov [33] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,20922%17%28%16%12%3%1%3%6
11–14 JulMore in Common [34] N/AGB2,31124%20%27%13%9%3%1%3%3
9–11 JulOpinium [35] The ObserverGB2,05224%18%29%13%9%3%1%3%5
9–10 JulFind Out Now [36] MultiComms LtdGB1,30821%16%34%11%11%3%1%4%13
9–10 JulTechne [37] N/AUK1,62822%18%29%16%9%2%4%7
9 JulFind Out Now [38] N/AGB2,65122%19%31%13%9%2%1%4%9
6–7 JulYouGov [39] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,51324%16%26%15%11%3%1%3%2
4–7 JulMore in Common [40] N/AGB2,08424%19%29%14%7%3%1%3%5
4–7 JulMore in Common [41] N/AGB2,08425%20%28%14%7%3%1%3%3
4–6 JulFreshwater Strategy [42] City AMGB1,25923%19%31%16%6%3%2%8
2 JulFind Out Now [43] N/AGB2,60422%16%30%15%11%3%1%3%8
29–30 JunYouGov [44] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,39224%17%26%16%10%3%1%2%2
27–30 JunMore in Common [45] N/AGB2,53224%19%29%12%9%3%1%3%5
26–30 JunLord Ashcroft Polls [46] [a] The Mail on Sunday [47] GB5,01822%21%27%11%13%3%0%3%5
13–30 JunMore in Common [48] (MRP)N/AGB11,28222%21%28%15%8%3%1%2%6
25–27 JunSurvation [49] N/AUK1,70026%19%27%12%8%3%1%4%1
25–27 JunOpinium [50] The ObserverGB2,05025%17%30%12%9%2%1%3%5
25–26 JunTechne [51] N/AUK1,62823%18%28%16%8%3%4%5
25 JunFind Out Now [52] N/AGB2,60522%18%30%13%11%3%1%2%8
24–25 JunBMG Research [53] The i PaperGB1,61727%19%30%12%7%2%1%2%3
22–23 JunYouGov [54] The Times/Sky NewsGB1,79423%17%27%16%10%3%1%3%4
20–23 JunMore in Common [55] N/AGB2,00423%20%27%14%9%3%1%3%4
18 JunFind Out Now [56] N/AGB2,62823%16%31%12%11%3%1%2%8
29 May18 JunYouGov [57] The Times/Sky NewsGB17,22723%17%27%15%11%3%1%2%4
29 May18 JunYouGov [58] (MRP)N/AGB11,50023%18%26%15%11%3%1%2%3
10–17 JunFind Out Now
Electoral Calculus [59] (MRP)
PLMRGB5,44422%19%31%13%9%3%1%4%9
15–16 JunYouGov [60] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,25524%17%27%15%10%4%1%2%3
13–16 JunMore in Common [61] N/AGB2,03221%22%29%13%9%3%1%4%7
11–13 JunOpinium [62] The ObserverGB2,05024%18%30%12%9%3%1%3%6
11 JunFind Out Now [63] N/AGB2,65124%16%30%13%11%3%1%2%6
10–11 JunSurvation [64] Rogan ProductionsUK2,01025%21%27%12%7%3%1%4%2
8–9 JunYouGov [65] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,19623%17%29%15%10%3%2%1%6
6–9 JunMore in Common [66] N/AGB2,07324%20%28%14%7%3%1%3%4
6–8 JunFreshwater Strategy [67] [a] City AMGB1,26021%21%32%14%8%2%2%11
4–5 JunTechne [68] N/AUK1,62823%17%31%15%8%2%4%8
4 JunFind Out Now [69] N/AGB1,96222%16%31%15%11%3%1%2%9
30 May4 JunIpsos [70] N/AUK1,18025%15%34%11%9%6%9
1–2 JunYouGov [71] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,24022%18%28%17%9%3%1%2%6
30 May2 JunMore in Common [72] N/AGB2,01623%21%28%14%8%2%1%3%5
30 May2 JunSurvation [73] N/AUK91624%20%27%13%8%2%2%3%3
29 May2 JunLord Ashcroft Polls [74] [a] N/AGB5,14723%18%27%13%13%2%0%3%4
28–30 MayOpinium [75] The ObserverGB2,05025%17%31%11%10%2%1%2%6
28–29 MayBMG Research [76] The i PaperGB1,51024%18%31%13%9%3%0%2%7
28–29 MayTechne [77] N/AUK1,64722%16%31%16%9%2%4%9
28 MayFind Out Now [78] N/AGB2,44722%16%32%13%11%3%1%2%10
26–27 MayYouGov [79] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,01321%19%29%15%11%2%1%2%8
23–26 MayMore in Common [80] N/AGB2,00022%19%31%14%8%2%1%3%9
21–22 MayTechne [81] N/AUK1,64122%17%30%16%9%2%4%8
21 MayFind Out Now [82] N/AGB2,50121%16%32%14%11%2%1%2%11
18–19 MayYouGov [79] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,22222%16%29%17%10%2%1%2%7
16–19 MayMore in Common [83] N/AGB2,09022%21%30%14%8%2%1%1%8
14–16 MayOpinium [84] The ObserverGB2,05025%18%29%13%10%2%1%3%4
14–15 MayTechne [85] N/AUK1,64522%18%29%15%9%2%5%7
14 MayFind Out Now [86] N/AGB2,55721%16%33%14%11%3%1%2%12
11–12 MayYouGov [87] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,31023%18%28%16%9%3%1%3%5
10–12 MayMore in Common [88] N/AGB2,09425%20%28%14%8%2%1%1%3
9–11 MayFreshwater Strategy [89] [a] City AMGB1,25022%19%32%15%8%3%2%10
7–8 MayTechne [90] N/AUK1,63523%19%28%14%8%3%5%5
6–8 MayBMG Research [91] The i PaperGB1,52522%19%32%13%9%3%0%2%10
7 MayFind Out Now [92] N/AGB2,21020%16%33%15%11%3%1%1%13
5–6 MayYouGov [93] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,18722%17%29%16%10%3%1%1%7
2–5 MaySurvation [94] True North AdvisorsUK2,03225%18%30%13%7%3%1%3%5
3–4 MayMore in Common [95] N/AGB2,21223%21%27%15%8%3%1%3%4
30 Apr2 MayOpinium [96] The ObserverGB2,05026%19%27%13%9%3%1%2%1
30 Apr2 MaySurvation [97] N/AUK1,05626%22%26%12%7%3%0%3%Tie
1 May Local elections in England, and Runcorn and Helsby by-election, a Reform gain from Labour
30 AprFind Out Now [98] N/AGB1,99021%19%29%13%11%3%1%3%8
27–28 AprYouGov [99] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,21423%20%26%15%9%3%1%2%3
25–27 AprMore in Common [100] N/AGB2,00924%23%24%15%8%2%1%4%Tie
23–25 AprOpinium [101] The ObserverGB2,05026%21%26%11%9%3%1%2%Tie
23–24 AprTechne [102] N/AUK1,64225%21%25%14%8%2%5%Tie
23 AprFind Out Now [103] N/AGB2,13920%20%28%14%13%3%0%2%8
21–22 AprYouGov [104] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,01223%20%25%16%10%3%1%2%2
17–21 AprMore in Common [105] N/AGB2,00423%23%25%14%8%3%1%4%2
16 AprFind Out Now [106] N/AGB2,28822%20%28%14%10%3%1%3%6
13–14 AprYouGov [107] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,39924%21%23%14%11%3%1%2%1
11–14 AprMore in Common [108] N/AGB2,27724%23%24%14%8%3%1%4%Tie
11–14 AprFocaldata [109] N/AGB1,58524%24%23%13%9%2%1%4%Tie
10–14 AprLord Ashcroft Polls [110] [a] N/AGB5,26327%24%21%11%11%3%0%3%3
8–14 AprVerian [111] N/AGB1,28525%19%24%16%9%3%2%3%1
9–11 AprOpinium [112] The ObserverGB2,05027%22%26%12%7%3%1%3%1
9–10 AprTechne [113] N/AUK1,64424%22%24%15%8%2%5%Tie
9 AprFind Out Now [114] N/AGB2,54622%21%26%14%11%3%1%3%4
6–7 AprYouGov [115] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,40224%22%23%17%9%3%1%2%1
4–7 AprMore in Common [116] N/AGB2,05824%23%24%17%7%2%0%1%Tie
4–6 AprFreshwater Strategy [117] [a] City AMGB1,25022%27%28%14%5%2%3%1
2–3 AprTechne [118] N/AUK1,63124%23%24%13%8%3%5%Tie
2 AprFind Out Now [119] N/AGB2,76822%20%28%13%11%3%1%3%6
14 Mar1 AprMore in Common (MRP) [120] N/AGB16,17624%24%24%13%8%2%4%Tie
30–31 MarYouGov [121] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,39224%21%23%14%11%3%1%3%1
28–31 MarMore in Common [122] N/AGB2,08121%26%25%13%7%2%1%4%1
26–28 MarOpinium [123] The ObserverGB2,05026%22%26%12%8%3%1%2%Tie
21–28 MarFind Out Now
Electoral Calculus [124] (MRP)
PLMR [125] GB5,18024%22%27%12%10%3%1%3%3
26–27 MarBMG Research [126] The i Paper [127] GB1,54426%24%23%14%8%3%1%1%2
26–27 MarTechne [128] N/AUK1,64225%23%24%14%8%2%4%1
26 MarFind Out Now [129] N/AGB2,74523%22%26%12%11%3%1%2%3
23–24 MarYouGov [130] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,33323%22%22%16%10%3%1%3%1
22–24 MarMore in Common [131] N/AGB2,43224%25%24%12%10%3%1%3%1
19–21 MarOpinium [132] The ObserverGB2,07826%21%26%13%8%3%1%3%Tie
19–20 MarTechne [133] N/AUK1,64427%23%23%14%7%2%4%4
19 MarFind Out Now [134] N/AGB2,77022%21%27%14%11%3%1%2%5
16–17 MarYouGov [135] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,31526%22%24%14%9%3%1%2%2
14–17 MarDeltapoll [136] N/AGB1,97425%25%23%11%9%3%1%2%Tie
14–17 MarMore in Common [137] N/AGB2,43225%24%25%12%7%2%1%4%Tie
13–17 MarLord Ashcroft Polls [138] [a] N/AGB5,11130%24%19%10%11%3%0%3%6
12–13 MarTechne [139] N/AUK1,63827%22%24%14%7%2%4%3
12 MarFind Out Now [140] N/AGB2,68624%21%27%11%10%3%1%2%3
9–10 MarYouGov [141] The Times/Sky NewsGB2,29124%22%23%15%9%3%1%3%1
7–10 MarMore in Common [142] N/AGB2,04125%23%25%14%8%2%1%2%Tie
6–9 MarJL Partners [143] The SunGB2,01226%24%23%14%7%3%1%3%2
5–7 MarOpinium [144] The ObserverGB1,49828%20%27%12%8%3%1%2%1
5–6 MarTechne [145] N/AUK1,63228%21%25%13%7%2%4%3
5 MarFind Out Now [146] N/AGB2,67025%21%26%12%10%3%1%2%1
2–3 MarYouGov [147] The TimesGB2,22226%21%25%14%9%3%1%2%1
1–2 MarFreshwater Strategy [148] [a] City AMGB1,21524%23%27%15%7%3%2%3
28 Feb2 MarMore in Common [149] N/AGB2,01026%24%24%13%7%2%1%2%2
26–28 FebFocaldata [150] N/AGB1,00824%22%21%14%8%3%1%5%2
26–27 FebTechne [151] N/AUK1,64326%22%25%13%8%2%4%1
26 FebFind Out Now [152] N/AGB3,36323%21%28%13%10%3%1%1%5
25–26 FebBMG Research [153] The i PaperGB1,58626%22%27%12%8%3%1%1%1
23–24 FebYouGov [154] Sky News / The TimesGB2,41524%22%25%16%8%3%1%2%1
21–24 FebMore in Common [155] N/AGB2,01323%25%24%16%8%2%0%2%1
19–21 FebOpinium [156] The ObserverGB2,05028%21%26%12%8%3%2%2
19–20 FebTechne [157] N/AUK1,63925%22%26%12%7%3%5%1
19 FebFind Out Now [158] N/AGB2,39324%20%28%12%10%2%1%2%4
14–18 FebMore in Common [159] N/AGB4,10125%23%26%12%7%2%1%3%1
16–17 FebYouGov [160] N/AGB2,43625%21%27%14%9%3%1%1%2
13–17 FebLord Ashcroft Polls [161] [a] N/AGB5,09928%23%23%9%11%2%0%3%5
12–13 FebTechne [162] N/AUK1,63726%22%25%12%8%2%5%1
12 FebFind Out Now [163] N/AGB3,42123%21%29%12%9%3%1%2%6
9–10 FebYouGov [164] N/AGB2,41925%21%26%14%9%3%1%1%1
7–10 FebMore in Common [165] N/AGB2,00525%23%25%12%8%2%1%3%Tie
5–7 FebOpinium [166] The ObserverGB1,49327%22%26%11%8%3%1%2%1
5–6 FebTechne [167] N/AUK1,64525%23%25%13%7%2%5%Tie
5 FebFind Out Now [168] N/AGB2,48725%18%29%13%10%3%1%2%4
2–3 FebYouGov [169] Sky News [170] GB2,46524%21%25%14%9%3%1%2%1
31 Jan3 FebMore in Common [171] N/AGB2,04424%26%24%13%6%3%1%3%2
31 Jan2 FebFreshwater Strategy [172] [a] City AMGB1,20029%28%22%9%7%3%2%1
29–30 JanTechne [173] N/AUK1,63326%23%24%12%7%3%5%2
29 JanFind Out Now [174] N/AGB2,48723%21%27%11%10%3%1%3%4
28–29 JanBMG Research [175] The i PaperGB1,51425%25%24%14%8%3%1%1%Tie
28–29 JanSurvation [176] N/AUK1,67027%22%24%13%8%3%4%3
26–27 JanYouGov [177] The TimesGB2,52327%22%23%14%9%3%1%2%4
24–27 JanMore in Common [178] N/AGB2,00925%24%25%13%7%2%1%3%Tie
22–29 JanFind Out Now
Electoral Calculus [179] (MRP)
PLMRGB5,74323%23%24%11%8%3%1%6%1
22–24 JanOpinium [180] The ObserverGB2,05028%21%27%11%8%3%1%2%1
22–23 JanWhitestone Insight [181] Daily ExpressGB2,01225%20%24%12%13%3%3%1
22–23 JanTechne [182] N/AUK1,64325%24%24%13%7%2%5%1
22 JanFind Out Now [183] N/AGB2,38022%23%26%12%10%3%1%3%3
19–20 JanYouGov [184] The TimesGB2,46626%22%24%14%9%3%1%2%2
17–20 JanMore in Common [185] N/AGB2,01624%25%25%12%7%3%1%3%Tie
17–20 JanDeltapoll [186] Institute for GovernmentGB1,50029%25%22%11%8%3%2%4
16–20 JanLord Ashcroft Polls [187] [a] N/AGB5,25128%25%20%11%9%3%0%3%3
15–16 JanTechne [188] N/AUK1,62426%25%23%12%7%2%5%1
15 JanFind Out Now [189] N/AGB2,38624%25%25%12%10%3%1%2%Tie
10–14 JanJL Partners [190] The Sunday TimesGB2,00726%25%22%13%9%2%1%3%1
12–13 JanYouGov [191] The TimesGB2,27926%22%25%14%8%3%1%2%1
10–13 JanMore in Common [192] N/AGB1,58724%25%24%12%8%3%1%3%1
8–10 JanOpinium [193] The ObserverGB2,05029%23%24%10%9%2%1%2%5
8 JanFind Out Now [194] N/AGB2,07625%20%25%11%11%3%1%2%Tie
6–8 JanMore in Common [195] N/AGB2,01126%26%22%12%7%3%1%2%Tie
4–6 JanFreshwater Strategy [196] [a] City AMGB1,20728%29%23%12%5%3%1%1
30 Dec – 3 JanDeltapoll [197] Mail on SundayGB1,53230%23%22%12%9%3%1%1%7

2024

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientAreaSample
size
Lab Con Ref LD Grn SNP PC OthersLead
19–23 DecDeltapoll [198] The MirrorGB1,55229%25%21%12%8%4%0%1%4
18–20 DecOpinium [199] The ObserverGB1,47229%23%22%11%10%3%1%2%6
18–19 DecTechne [200] N/AUK1,64227%26%21%12%7%2%5%1
12–16 DecSurvation [201] N/AUK2,03030%25%20%11%7%2%1%2%5
11–12 DecTechne [202] N/AUK1,63427%25%22%11%7%2%6%2
11 DecFind Out Now [203] N/AGB2,65926%23%25%11%9%3%1%2%1
6–10 DecMore in Common [204] N/AGB2,43226%26%19%13%8%3%1%4%Tie
6–9 DecStonehaven [205] (MRP)N/AGB2,07228%24%21%13%8%3%1%2%4
5–6 DecTechne [206] N/AUK1,64427%25%21%12%7%2%6%2
4 DecFind Out Now [207] N/AGB2,60723%26%24%11%9%3%1%2%2
29 Nov2 DecMore in Common [208] N/AGB2,00226%28%21%13%7%3%1%2%2
27–29 NovOpinium [209] The ObserverGB2,05029%25%21%10%9%3%1%2%4
27–28 NovTechne [210] N/AUK1,64828%27%18%13%6%2%6%1
27 NovFind Out Now [211] N/AGB2,31625%27%22%12%9%3%1%2%2
26–27 NovBMG Research [212] The i PaperGB1,53129%27%20%12%7%3%0%2%2
26–27 NovMore in Common [213] N/AGB1,97227%30%18%12%8%2%1%2%3
20–21 NovTechne [214] N/AUK1,63229%27%17%12%7%2%6%2
19–21 NovMore in Common [215] N/AGB2,00225%28%19%13%8%3%1%3%3
14–18 NovDeltapoll [216] N/AGB1,74929%27%18%12%8%4%1%1%2
13–14 NovJL Partners [217] The Sun / PoliticoGB2,02427%26%20%12%9%3%3%1
13–14 NovTechne [218] N/AGB1,64328%27%17%13%7%2%6%1
11–13 NovOpinium [219] The ObserverGB1,64630%24%21%12%8%3%1%1%6
8–11 NovMore in Common [220] N/AGB2,00727%29%19%11%8%2%1%4%2
6–7 NovTechne [221] N/AUK1,63629%25%18%13%7%2%6%4
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
31 Oct – 16 DecMore in Common [222] (MRP)N/AGB11,02425%26%21%14%8%2%1%3%1
30 Oct1 NovMore in Common [223] N/AGB2,00728%26%18%14%8%3%1%3%2
30–31 OctOpinium [224] The ObserverGB1,54831%24%20%10%10%2%0%3%7
30–31 OctBMG Research [225] The i PaperGB1,51128%29%17%13%8%2%1%2%1
30–31 OctTechne [226] N/AUK1,63230%24%18%14%7%2%5%6
23–24 OctTechne [227] N/AUK1,64429%24%19%13%7%2%6%5
16–18 OctOpinium [228] The ObserverGB1,56531%24%20%12%8%2%1%2%7
16–17 OctTechne [229] N/AUK1,63628%25%19%13%7%2%6%3
11–13 OctJL Partners [230] The TelegraphGB2,00029%25%19%14%7%2%1%2%4
9–10 OctTechne [231] N/AUK1,65129%24%19%12%7%2%7%5
9–10 OctMore in Common [232] The TimesGB2,00027%27%21%13%7%2%1%1%Tie
5–7 OctMore in Common [233] PoliticoGB2,02329%28%19%11%7%2%0%3%1
4–7 OctDeltapoll [234] N/AGB2,10829%25%18%14%8%4%1%1%4
2–4 OctOpinium [235] The ObserverGB1,49131%24%20%11%8%3%2%7
2–3 OctBMG Research [236] i GB1,56230%25%20%13%7%3%0%1%5
2–3 OctTechne [237] N/AUK1,64331%23%18%13%7%2%6%8
25–26 SepTechne [238] N/AUK1,63832%22%18%13%7%2%6%10
24–25 SepMore in Common [239] N/AGB2,08030%26%18%13%8%3%1%2%4
18–23 SepVerian [240] N/AGB1,25831%26%17%13%7%2%1%2%5
18–19 SepTechne [241] The IndependentUK1,64133%21%18%13%7%2%6%12
10–12 SepMore in Common [242] PoliticoGB1,54229%25%18%14%8%3%1%4%4
29 AugBMG Research [243] i GB1,56030%26%19%12%8%3%1%2%4
7–8 AugWe Think [244] N/AGB1,27833%20%21%11%8%3%1%4%12
5–7 AugBMG Research [245] i GB1,52333%24%18%12%8%4%9
30 Jul5 AugStonehaven [246] N/AGB2,04834%22%17%12%9%6%12
25–26 JulWe Think [247] N/AGB2,01236%22%17%11%7%2%1%4%14
11–12 JulWe Think [248] N/AGB2,00539%20%16%11%9%2%3%19
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election UK33.7%23.7%14.3%12.2%6.8%2.5%0.7%6.1%10.0
GB34.7%24.4%14.7%12.5%6.9%2.6%0.7%3.5%10.3

Seat projections

326 seats needed for a majority.

MRP polls

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Area Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid OthersMajority
13–30 Jun 2025More in Common [48] N/A11,282GB126817342290748Hung
(Ref 36 short)
29 May – 18 Jun 2025YouGov [58] N/A11,500GB178468138271773Hung
(Ref 55 short)
10–17 Jun 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now [59] PLMR5,444GB118296926377445Ref 104
14 Mar – 1 Apr 2025More in Common [120] N/A16,176GB16516567351804510Hung
(Ref 146 short)
21–28 Mar 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now [124] PLMR [125] 5,180GB1801334930227445Hung
(Ref 99 short)
22–29 Jan 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now [249] PLMR [250] 5,743GB1741785737175425Hung
(Con 148 short)
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025Focaldata [251] Hope not Hate [252] 17,790GB2871636322764413Hung
(Lab 39 short)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024More in Common [222] N/A11,024GB2282225837722426 [b] Hung
(Lab 98 short)
6–9 Dec 2024Stonehaven [205] N/A2,072GB27815747241203219 [b] Hung
(Lab 48 short)
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election UK411121729544
23
Lab 172

POLARIS projections

Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes. [253] All models from January onwards are combined with a representative survey data, with the data used shifted to reflect the pollsters' most recent national polling.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Area Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid OthersMajority
March 2025J.L. Partners [254] N/A306,817GB218136704113553
Hung
(Lab 108 short)
January 2025J.L. Partners [255] N/A306,817GB200190704210274
Hung
(Lab 126 short)
December 2024J.L. Partners [256] N/A280,000GB2562086667154


Hung
(Lab 70 short)
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election UK411121729544
23
Lab 172

Sub-national poll results

Northern Ireland

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV OthersLead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election 27.0%22.1%15.0%12.2%11.1%6.2%6.4%4.9

Scotland

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland Scotland-only UK general election opinion polling (post-2024).svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland
Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab SNP Con LD Ref Grn OthersLead
29 Aug Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer are elected as co-leaders of the Scottish Greens
13–19 Jun 2025YouGov [257] Scottish Election Study1,17819%29%10%11%22%7%1%7
12–18 Jun 2025Ipsos [258] STV News1,06422%31%10%9%16%10%1%9
27–30 May 2025Norstat [259] The Times1,00720%31%12%8%21%7%2%10
2–5 May 2025Survation [260] True North1,02019%32%11%11%21%5%0%11
16–22 Apr 2025Survation [261] Diffley Partnership1,00524%33%14%9%15%5%0%9
25 Feb3 Mar 2025YouGov [262] Scottish Election Study1,16421%32%12%7%19%7%1%11
15–20 Jan 2025Find Out Now [263] The Herald1,33418%31%12%10%17%7%5%13
11–14 Jan 2025Norstat [264] The Sunday Times1,02618%32%13%11%17%6%3%14
7–13 Jan 2025Survation [265] N/A1,02424%33%14%9%15%4%1%9
17–24 Dec 2024Find Out Now [266] The National [267] 1,77420%34%14%9%15%6%2%14
4–6 Dec 2024Norstat [268] The Sunday Times1,01320%31%14%9%15%6%
4%
Alba on 3%
Other on 1%
11
1–15 Nov 2024Survation [269] Progress Scotland3,01628%31%15%6%13%5%
3%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
3
30 Oct1 Nov 2024Norstat [270] The Sunday Times1,01323%30%15%10%14%6%
2%
Alba on 1%
Other on 1%
7
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024Survation [271] Progress Scotland2,05931%31%14%9%11%3%
1%
Alba on 1%
Other on 0%
Tie
5–11 Sep 2024Opinium [272] The Sunday Times [273] 1,02825%32%14%8%11%7%2%7
20–22 Aug 2024Norstat [274] The Sunday Times1,01132%29%12%8%12%5%
2%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [275] 35.3%30.0%12.7%9.7%7.0%3.8%1.6%5.3

Wales

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab Con Ref PC LD Grn OthLead
23–30 Apr 2025YouGov [276] Barn Cymru1,24820%13%24%24%9%7%2%Tie
10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025Survation [277] N/A84429%15%25%18%6%6%1%4
3–5 Dec 2024 Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives
18 Oct4 Nov 2024Survation [278] Reform UK 2,00633%18%21%13%9%5%0%12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election [279] 37.0%18.2%16.9%14.8%6.5%4.7%1.9%18.8

100 most rural constituencies

In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Con Lab LD Ref Grn OthersLead
14–21 Nov 2024Survation [280] Country Land and Business Association 1,00734%21%18%21%7%0%13
4 Jul 20242024 general election (Survation) [280] 33.9%23.6%19.1%16.1%6.0%1.4%10.4

Northern England and the Midlands

In April 2025, Survation conducted a survey of Northern England and the Midlands.

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab Con Ref LD Grn OthersLead
11–13 Apr 2025Survation [281] Friderichs Advisory Partners2,03227%22%30%10%9%2%3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election 39.6%23.8%17.7%7.5%6.8%4.6%15.9

London

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab Con LD Grn Ref OthersLead
29 Apr21 May 2025Savanta [282] QMUL 1,00332%21%13%13%15%6%11
4–8 May 2025Find Out Now [283] Alex Wilson 1,10230%17%16%15%19%4%11
30 Oct11 Nov 2024Savanta [284] QMUL 1,00436%24%12%12%13%4%12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election 43.0%20.6%11.0%10.0%8.7%6.7%22.7

Hypothetical scenarios

Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Dates

conducted

PollsterClientAreaSample

size

Hypothetical Conservative leader Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid OthersMajority / lead
11–15 Oct 2024Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) [285] Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick GB6,289 Kemi Badenoch Seats332151634825445Lab 14
Vote share29%22%12%4%21%10%1%1%7
Robert Jenrick Seats311178584824445Hung (Labour 15 short)
Vote share28%23%12%4%20%11%1%1%5

Tactical voting scenarios

In February 2025, YouGov conducted polling on scenarios wherein only two parties appear to have a chance of winning a constituency. [286]

Dates
conducted
PollsterAreaSample
size
Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green OthersDon't knowWould not vote/refusedLead
Conservative–Reform races
23–24 Feb 2025YouGovGB2,17810%26%25%5%6%3%7%18%1
Conservative–Lib Dem races
23–24 Feb 2025YouGovGB2,1785%25%7%33%3%2%6%17%8
Conservative–Labour races
23–24 Feb 2025YouGovGB2,17831%28%7%3%3%2%6%17%3
Labour–Reform races
23–24 Feb 2025YouGovGB2,17835%4%31%2%3%2%6%16%4
Lib Dem–Reform races
23–24 Feb 2025YouGovGB2,1785%4%29%36%3%2%6%15%7

Including 16-17 year-olds

In July 2025, the Government announced their intention to reduce the voting age to 16. [287] Following this, some pollsters conducted polling including 16 and 17 year-olds, although the voting age has not yet been reduced.

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientAreaSample
size
Lab Con Ref LD Grn SNP PC OthLead
14–18 Jul 2025Focaldata [288] MultiComms LtdGB1,30723%19%26%14%9%2%1%5%3

Some pollsters also conducted polling solely among 16 and 17 year olds, or broke out an oversample of this group.

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientAreaSample
size
Lab Con Ref LD Grn SNP PC Your OthLead
7–28 Aug 2025More in Common [289] The Sunday TimesGB1,11524%13%23%12%6%1%0%21%0%1
30%14%23%14%14%3%0%3%7
14–18 Jul 2025Focaldata [288] MultiComms LtdGB274 (oversample)35%11%17%7%19%4%1%
6%
4% independents, 2% other parties
16
4–6 Jul 2025Merlin Strategy [290] ITV NewsGB50033%10%20%12%18%2%0%
6%
3% independents, 3% other parties
13

With Your Party

Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana have stated their intention to found a new political party, provisionally referred to as "Your Party" pending the adoption of a permanent name. [291] Prior to that announcement, polling was carried out about the idea for a hypothetical new party. Since the announcement, more polling has been carried out, but the party has not yet been included in headline voting intention polls.

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientAreaSample
size
Lab Con Ref LD Grn SNP PC Your OthLead
15–19 Aug 2025Focaldata [10] N/AGB1,50023%18%28%14%7%2%1%4% [c] 3%5
29–31 Jul 2025BMG Research [292] The i PaperGB1,52820%19%31%13%7%2%1%6% [d] 2%11
24 Jul 2025 Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn announce a new political party
9–10 Jul 2025Find Out Now [36] MultiComms LtdGB1,30815%17%34%9%5%2%1%15% [e] 1%17
4–7 Jul 2025More in Common [293] N/AGB2,08422%20%27%13%5%3%1%8% [f] 1%5
20–23 Jun 2025More in Common [294] N/AGB2,00420%20%27%14%5%2%1%10% [f] 1%7
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election GB34.7%24.4%14.7%12.5%6.9%2.6%0.7%N/A3.5%10.3

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Pollster is not a member of the British Polling Council.
  2. 1 2 Polling was of GB adults only, but 18 seats were assigned to Northern Irish parties in the reporting of the outcome.
  3. Framed as "Your Party (provisional name for new party founded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana)"
  4. Framed as "Your Party (provisional name for new party led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana)"
  5. Framed as "A new populist left-wing party... with Zarah Sultana MP and Jeremy Corbyn MP as co-leaders"
  6. 1 2 Framed as "a new populist left-wing party ... with Jeremy Corbyn as leader."

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