Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election

Last updated

In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls was from the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to 6 May 2021 when the election for the newly named Senedd took place and was the first Welsh election which included 16 and 17-year-olds in the electoral franchise. After January 2020 most opinion polls also included this data set to reflect the enfranchisement in the next election. [1]

Constituency vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the Senedd election.

Poll results

PollsterClient(s)Date(s)
conducted		Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid
Cymru 		Lib Dem Abolish Reform UK [lower-alpha 1] Green UKIP OtherLead
2021 election 6 May 2021–39.9%26.1%20.3%4.9%1.6%1.6%1.6%0.8%3.2%13.8%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–4 May 20211,07136%29%20%3%2%4%2%1%2%7%
Savanta ComRes N/A29 Apr – 4 May 20211,00236%28%18%6%3%3%––6%8%
Savanta ComRes N/A23–28 Apr 20211,00236%27%19%5%4%4%1%0%4%9%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Apr 20211,14235%24%24%3%3%4%3%–3%11%
Opinium Sky News 9–19 Apr 20212,00540%30%19%4%––––7%10%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–19 Mar 20211,17432%30%23%5%3%3%2%0%1%2%
YouGov Wales Online 19–22 Feb 20211,00433%28%22%4%3%4%4%1%0%5%
ICM BBC Wales 28 Jan – 21 Feb 20211,00139%24%24%4%1%–1%2%4%15%
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [2]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 11–14 Jan 20211,01834%26%22%4%–5%6%0%4%8%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 26–30 Oct 20201,01338%27%20%3%–5%3%0%4%11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Aug – 4 Sep 20201,11034%29%24%3%2%4%3%0%1%5%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29 May – 1 Jun 20201,02134%31%22%5%1%3%3%0%1%3%
Survation Centre for Welsh Studies 22–31 May 20201,05140%26%18%7%–8%––2%14%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Apr 20201,00831%38%19%4%1%4%3%0%0%7%
ICM BBC Wales 4–22 Feb 20201,00031%31%26%6%–2%2%2%1%Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 20–26 Jan 20201,03733%35%19%5%1%4%3%0%1%2%
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 6–9 Dec 20191,02033%31%18%7%1%7%3%0%0%2%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 25–28 Nov 20191,11632%26%20%7%1%11%4%0%0%6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 31 Oct – 4 Nov 20191,13627%24%21%10%1%14%4%0%0%3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 10–14 Oct 20191,03225%23%22%11%1%15%4%0%0%2%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 23–26 Jul 20191,07121%19%24%12%—19%4%–2%3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–20 May 20191,00925%17%24%9%1%17%5%1%0%1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–5 Apr 20191,02531%23%24%6%1%3%1%7%0%7%
ICM BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 20191,00034%23%27%7%––2%5%2%7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 20191,02532%26%23%8%1%–3%7%2%6%
Sky Data Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 20181,01442%26%22%3%––2%4%1%16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister [3] [4]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Dec 20181,02440%25%20%7%1%–2%5%0%15%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Oct – 2 Nov 20181,03138%28%19%6%1%–1%6%1%10%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru [5]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [6]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales [7]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Jun – 2 Jul 20181,03138%28%21%6%1%–1%4%1%10%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 12–15 Mar 20181,01539%28%22%4%1%–1%5%0%11%
ICM BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 20181,00140%22%24%6%––1%5%2%16%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election [8]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 21–24 Nov 20171,01643%26%19%5%1%–2%4%1%17%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats [9]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Sep 20171,01143%25%19%5%1%–1%4%0%18%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29–31 May 20171,01442%26%19%6%1%–1%5%0%16%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 May 20171,02540%27%20%6%0%–2%5%1%13%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 5–7 May 20171,01833%33%20%7%1%–2%3%1%Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–21 Apr 20171,02929%30%22%8%1%–1%8%1%1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 3–6 Jan 20171,03431%25%21%8%1%–2%12%0%6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Sep 20161,00134%24%20%6%1%–2%13%0%10%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Jun – 4 Jul 20161,01032%19%23%7%1%–1%16%0%9%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 May – 2 Jun 20161,01734%18%23%7%1%–2%15%0%11%
2016 election [10] 5 May 2016–34.7%21.2%20.5%7.7%––2.5%12.5%1.0%13.6%

Regional vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Senedd election.

Poll results

PollsterClient(s)Date(s)
conducted		Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid
Cymru 		Abolish Lib Dem Green Reform UK [lower-alpha 1] UKIP OtherLead
2021 election 6 May 2021–36.2%25.1%20.7%3.7%4.3%4.4%1.1%1.6%2.9%11.1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–4 May 20211,07131%25%21%7%4%5%2%3%1%6%
Savanta ComRes N/A29 Apr – 4 May 20211,00232%25%19%6%5%5%3%–6%7%
Savanta ComRes N/A23–28 Apr 20211,00231%24%21%8%5%3%3%–5%7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Apr 20211,14233%22%23%7%4%5%––6%10%
Opinium Sky News 9–19 Apr 20212,00538%27%19%–4%5%–2%5%11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–19 Mar 20211,17431%28%22%7%4%3%1%1%2% [lower-alpha 2] 3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 20211,00429%25%24%9%2%5%3%2%3%4%
ICM BBC Wales 28 Jan – 21 Feb 20211,00137%22%22%4%3%3%–4%6%15%
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [2]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 11–14 Jan 20211,01830%25%23%7%4%5%4%–1%5%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 26–30 Oct 20201,01333%24%20%7%4%4%5%–2%9%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Aug – 4 Sep 20201,11033%27%23%4%3%4%4%–2%6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29 May – 1 Jun 20201,02132%28%24%4%5%4%3%–1%4%
Survation Centre for Welsh Studies22–31 May 20201,05136%23%22%–7%–10%–2%13%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Apr 20201,00829%37%18%3%4%3%4%0%2%8%
ICM BBC Wales 4–22 Feb 20201,00031%29%25%–5%3%3%2%2%2%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 20–26 Jan 20201,03732%32%19%3%5%–3%0%5%Tie
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 6–9 Dec 20191,02032%28%19%2%6%4%7%0%1%4%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 25–28 Nov 20191,11629%26%21%2%7%4%9%0%0%3%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 31 Oct – 4 Nov 20191,13623%23%21%4%9%5%13%1%1%Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 10–14 Oct 20191,03223%22%21%3%10%5%14%1%0%1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 23–26 Jul 20191,07119%18%23%—12%4%17%–7%4%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–20 May 20191,00921%12%22%3%7%8%23%1%1%1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–5 Apr 20191,02528%20%22%3%5%3%6%5%2% [lower-alpha 3] 6%
ICM BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 20191,00032%22%25%–6%3%–6%6%7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 20191,02529%24%23%4%6%4%–6%4% [lower-alpha 4] 5%
Sky Data Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 20181,01439%23%22%7%2%2%–4%1%16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister [3] [4]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Dec 20181,02436%24%20%5%4%4%–4%3% [lower-alpha 5] 12%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Oct – 2 Nov 20181,03137%26%18%3%6%4%–5%2% [lower-alpha 3] 11%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru [5]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [6]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales [7]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Jun – 2 Jul 20181,03137%25%22%3%5%3%–5%1% [lower-alpha 3] 12%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 12–15 Mar 20181,01536%27%21%3%4%3%–6%1% [lower-alpha 3] 9%
ICM BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 20181,00136%21%22%–6%2%–8%3%14%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election [8]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 21–24 Nov 20171,01638%27%18%2%5%3%–4%2% [lower-alpha 6] 11%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats [9]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Sep 20171,01140%23%19%3%5%3%–5%2% [lower-alpha 7] 17%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29–31 May 20171,01438%27%17%3%6%2%–6%2% [lower-alpha 8] 11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 May 20171,02537%26%19%3%5%3%–5%1%11%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 5–7 May 20171,01831%32%20%3%6%3%–5%2% [lower-alpha 8] 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–21 Apr 20171,02927%28%20%3%6%5%–9%2% [lower-alpha 3] 1%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 3–6 Jan 20171,03428%22%20%4%7%2%–14%1%6%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Sep 20161,00129%22%21%4%6%3%–13%3% [lower-alpha 9] 7%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Jun – 4 Jul 20161,01029%18%24%3%6%4%–15%3% [lower-alpha 10] 5%
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 May – 2 Jun 20161,01732%18%21%4%6%4%–14%0%11%
2016 election 5 May 2016–31.5%18.8%20.8%4.4%6.5%3.0%–13.0%2.1%10.6%

Leadership polling

At various dates in the run up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of these polls are displayed in this article. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from 2019 to 2021, with the exception of Welsh party leaders where the entire polling history is shown.

Most approval polling in Wales is carried out by YouGov/Cardiff University. A single score is then given to each figure, based on where the most common answer for a leader lies, with 0 representing Strongly Dislike and 10 representing Strongly Like.

Welsh party leaders

Mark Drakeford

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Mark Drakeford, leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister of Wales.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 March 202119 March 2021 YouGov 1,174Like/Dislike5.7 [11]
3 April 20207 April 2020 YouGov 1,008Like/Dislike4 [12]
29 May 20201 June 2020 YouGov 1,021Like/Dislike5.1 [13]
28 August 20204 September 2020 YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike5.3 [14]
19 February 201922 February 2019 YouGov 1,025Like/Dislike3.9 [15]
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike3.8 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3.5 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike3.7 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike3.9 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.2 [20]
12 March 201815 March 2018 YouGov 1,015Like/Dislike3.8 [21]
30 October 20182 November 2018 YouGov 1,031Like/Dislike4 [22]

Paul Davies

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Paul Davies, the former leader of the Welsh Conservatives and the former Leader of the Opposition in Wales. He resigned as Leader of the Welsh Conservatives and Leader of the Opposition on 23 January 2021, after it was exposed that he was involved in an incident which possibly broke Welsh COVID-19 regulations in December 2020. [23] Andrew RT Davies became the new leader of the Welsh Conservatives and Leader of the Opposition in Wales on 24 January 2021.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
3 April 20207 April 2020 YouGov 1,008Like/Dislike4 [12]
29 May 20201 June 2020 YouGov 1,021Like/Dislike3.7 [13]
28 August 20204 September 2020 YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike3.7 [14]
19 February 201922 February 2019 YouGov 1,025Like/Dislike3.5 [15]
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike3 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike2.8 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike4 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike3.4 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.0 [20]
30 October 20182 November 2018 YouGov 1,031Like/Dislike3.7 [22]

Adam Price

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Adam Price, leader of Plaid Cymru.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
3 April 20207 April 2020 YouGov 1,008Like/Dislike4.9 [12]
29 May 20201 June 2020 YouGov 1,021Like/Dislike4.8 [13]
28 August 20204 September 2020 YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike4.7 [14]
19 February 201922 February 2019 YouGov 1,025Like/Dislike4.6 [15]
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike3.9 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3.6 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike4.2 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike4.4 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike4.0 [20]
30 October 20182 November 2018 YouGov 1,031Like/Dislike4.3 [22]

Jane Dodds

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jane Dodds, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike3.4 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3.7 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike4.2 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike3.4 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.2 [20]
30 October 20182 November 2018 YouGov 1,031Like/Dislike3.8 [22]

Mark Reckless

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Mark Reckless, leader of the Brexit Party.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike2.6 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike2.8 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike2.8 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike2.4 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike2.5 [20]

Neil Hamilton

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Neil Hamilton, leader of UKIP.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike2.2 [17]

UK party leaders

Boris Johnson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Boris Johnson, leader of the Conservative Party and prime minister of the United Kingdom.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 March 202119 March 2021 YouGov 1,174Like/Dislike3.9 [11]
3 April 20207 April 2020 YouGov 1,008Like/Dislike5.3 [12]
29 May 20201 June 2020 YouGov 1,021Like/Dislike4.1 [13]
28 August 20204 September 2020 YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike3.9 [14]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike4 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike4 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike3.9 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.8 [20]

Keir Starmer

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
29 May 20201 June 2020 YouGov 1,021Like/Dislike5.6 [13]
28 August 20204 September 2020 YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike5.1 [14]

Ed Davey

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
28 August 20204 September 2020 YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike3.7 [14]

Nigel Farage

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit Party.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike3.7 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3.1 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike3.1 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike2.9 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike2.8 [20]

Siân Berry

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Siân Berry, co-leader of the Green Party.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike4.2 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3.6 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike3.9 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike4.0 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.9 [20]

Jonathan Bartley

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jonathan Bartley, co-leader of the Green Party.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike3.6 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3.2 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike4.3 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike3.9 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.6 [20]

Approval ratings for former party leaders

Jeremy Corbyn

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour Party.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
16 May 201920 May 2019 YouGov 1,009Like/Dislike3 [16]
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike3.4 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike3.8 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.7 [20]

Jo Swinson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jo Swinson, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)
10 October 201914 October 2019 YouGov 1,032Like/Dislike3.5 [17]
31 October 20194 November 2019 YouGov 1,136Like/Dislike3.3 [18]
22 November 201925 November 2019 YouGov 1,116Like/Dislike3.3 [19]
6 December 20199 December 2019 YouGov 1,020Like/Dislike3.0 [20]

Topical polling

Coronavirus handling

The following polls have asked people how well they think key figures have handled the coronavirus pandemic: very well, fairly well, fairly badly, very badly, or don't know. They are then provided with a Total Well or Total Badly figure.

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Mark Drakeford Matt Hancock Boris Johnson Rishi Sunak Vaughan Gething
Total WellTotal BadlyNetTotal WellTotal BadlyNetTotal WellTotal BadlyNetTotal WellTotal BadlyNetTotal WellTotal BadlyNet
28 Aug – 4 Sep [14] YouGov/Cardiff University 1,1105722352448-243456-2250252535269
29 May – 1 Jun [13] YouGov/Cardiff University 1,0214925242947-183757-2051232832275
3 Apr – 7 Apr [12] YouGov/Cardiff University 1,00830237502228632934551441291811

Average popularity

The following averages are taken from the above breakdown of individual figures' popularity. Note for some figures polling exists prior to 2018 which is not shown here. Some figures may only have a small number of surveys.

FigureAverage Score (0–10)2020 Average Score (0–10)
Keir Starmer5.355.35
Adam Price4.344.8
Mark Drakeford4.0184.8
Boris Johnson4.0144.433
Siân Berry3.92
Jonathan Bartley3.72
Ed Davey3.73.7
Jane Dodds3.617
Jeremy Corbyn3.38
Jo Swinson3.275
Paul Davies3.183.8
Nigel Farage3.12
Mark Reckless2.62
Neil Hamilton2.2

Seat projections

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.

PollsterClient(s)/Publisher(s)Date(s)
conducted		Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid
Cymru 		Abolish Lib Dem Reform UK [lower-alpha 1] Green UKIP OtherMajority
2021 election 6 May 2021–3016130100001 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Apr 20211,142271415310–––4 short
Opinium Sky News 9–19 Apr 20212,005291910–1––1–2 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–19 Mar 20211,174221914410–––9 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 20211,004241614510–––7 short
ICM BBC Wales 28 Jan – 21 Feb 20211,001301315–1––1–1 short
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [2]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 11–14 Jan 20211,018261615210–––5 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 26–30 Oct 20201,013281611410–––3 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Aug – 4 Sep 20201,110251915–10–––6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 29 May – 1 Jun 20201,021251915–10–––6 short
Survation Centre for Welsh Studies22–31 May 20201,051291312–15–––2 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Apr 20201,008232610–10–––5 short
ICM BBC Wales 4–22 Feb 20201,000212018–10–––10 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 20–26 Jan 20201,037242213–10–––7 short
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 6–9 Dec 20191,020251911–14–––6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 25–28 Nov 20191,116251712–15–––6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 31 Oct – 4 Nov 20191,136181815–27–––Tie
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 10–14 Oct 20191,032181413–69–––13 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 23–26 Jul 20191,071171115–710–––14 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 16–20 May 20191,00920713–2135––11 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 2–5 Apr 20191,025231516–14–1–8 short
ICM BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 20191,000251419–1––1–6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–22 Feb 20191,025231716–2––2–8 short
Sky Data Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 20181,01429131421––1–2 short
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister [3] [4]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Dec 20181,024291613–1––1–2 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Oct – 2 Nov 20181,031291811–1––1–2 short
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru [5]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [6]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales [7]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 28 Jun – 2 Jul 20181,031281515–1––1–3 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 12–15 Mar 20181,015281713–1––1–3 short
ICM BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 20181,001301315–1––1–1 short
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election [8]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 21–24 Nov 20171,016301810–1––1–1 short
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats [9]
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 4–7 Sep 20171,011311611–1––1–2
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 19–21 Apr 20171,029211814–2––5–10 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 3–6 Jan 20171,034221414–2––8–9 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 18–21 Sep 20161,001261412–1––7–5 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 Jun – 4 Jul 20161,010251115–1––8–6 short
YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 30 May – 2 Jun 20161,017271114–1––7–4 short
2016 election 5 May 2016–291112–1––7–2 short

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Known as the Brexit Party (Plaid Brexit) from 2018 until January 2021.
  2. ↑ Including Propel with 1%
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Including the Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  4. ↑ Including the Socialist Labour Party and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  5. ↑ Including the BNP and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  6. ↑ Including the Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  7. ↑ Including the BNP with 1%
  8. 1 2 Including the Socialist Labour Party with 1%
  9. ↑ Including the Welsh Christian Party, BNP and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  10. ↑ Including the Welsh Christian Party and Communist Party of Britain with 1%

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References

  1. ↑ "16 and 17 year olds get right to vote - a historic day for democracy in Wales". Senedd Cymru. 27 November 2019. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
  2. 1 2 3 "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Retrieved 24 January 2021.
  3. 1 2 3 "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  4. 1 2 3 "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  5. 1 2 3 "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  6. 1 2 3 "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  7. 1 2 3 "UKIP Wales members elect Gareth Bennett as assembly leader". BBC News. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  8. 1 2 3 "Jack Sargeant wins Alyn and Deeside by-election". BBC News. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  9. 1 2 3 "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  10. ↑ Jones, Helen; Holzinger, Owen (June 2016). Research Briefing 2016 Assembly Election Results (PDF). senedd.wales: National Assembly for Wales Research Service.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  11. 1 2 McDonnell, Adam (25 March 2021). "2021 Senedd race narrows with six weeks to go". YouGov. Retrieved 6 April 2021.
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 "The April Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 9 April 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "The June Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 4 June 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "The September Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 14 September 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  15. 1 2 3 "The February Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 25 February 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "The May Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 20 May 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "The October Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 15 October 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "The November Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 17 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "The November Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 25 November 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "The December Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 9 December 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  21. ↑ "The March Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 19 March 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  22. 1 2 3 4 "The November Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 6 November 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  23. ↑ "Tory Senedd leader Paul Davies quits over alcohol row". BBC News. 23 January 2021. Retrieved 23 January 2021.
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