Opinion polling for UK general elections |
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1992 election |
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Opinion polls |
In the run up to the 1992 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in the United Kingdom. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the election to 8 April.
Almost every poll leading up to polling day predicted either a hung parliament with Labour the largest party, or a small Labour majority of around 19 to 23. Polls on the last few days before the country voted predicted a very slim Labour majority. [1] After the polls closed, the BBC and ITV exit polls still predicted that there would be a hung parliament and "that the Conservatives would only just get more seats than Labour". [2]
With opinion polls at the end of the campaign showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, the actual election result, a small Conservative majority, was a surprise to many in the media and in polling organisations. The apparent failure of the opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society. Following the election, most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a 'Shy Tory factor' affected the polling.
All data is from UK Polling Report. [3]
Survey end date | Pollster | Client | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 Apr | 1992 general election [4] | 42.8% | 35.2% | 18.3% | 7.6% | |
8 Apr | NOP | The Independent | 39% | 42% | 17% | 3% |
8 Apr | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 38.5% | 38% | 20% | 0.5% |
8 Apr | MORI | The Times | 38% | 39% | 20% | 1% |
7 Apr | ICM | The Guardian | 38% | 38% | 20% | Tie |
7 Apr | Harris | ITN | 38% | 40% | 18% | 2% |
6 Apr | MORI | YTV | 37% | 40% | 20% | 3% |
4 Apr | Harris | Daily Express | 37% | 38% | 21% | 1% |
4 Apr | Harris | The Observer | 38% | 40% | 17% | 2% |
3 Apr | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 35% | 41% | 20% | 6% |
3 Apr | MORI | The Sunday Times | 37% | 39% | 21% | 2% |
3 Apr | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 37.5% | 37.5% | 21% | Tie |
3 Apr | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 38% | 41% | 17% | 3% |
3 Apr | ICM | Press Association | 36.2% | 38.7% | 20.4% | 2.5% |
1 Apr | ICM | Sunday Express | 37% | 39% | 19% | 2% |
1 Apr | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 38% | 37.5% | 20.5% | 0.5% |
31 Mar | NOP | The Independent | 37% | 39% | 19% | 2% |
31 Mar | Neilsen | N/A | 39.8% | 39.6% | 17.2% | 0.2% |
31 Mar | Harris | ITN | 35% | 41% | 19% | 6% |
30 Mar | ICM | The Guardian | 37% | 41% | 18% | 4% |
30 Mar | Harris | Daily Express | 40% | 39% | 17% | 1% |
29 Mar | MORI | The Times | 35% | 42% | 19% | 7% |
28 Mar | Audience Selection | N/A | 37% | 39% | 19% | 2% |
28 Mar | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 39% | 40% | 16% | 1% |
27 Mar | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 37% | 41% | 18% | 4% |
27 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 40% | 20% | 2% |
27 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 40% | 38% | 17% | 2% |
25 Mar | ICM | Sunday Express | 36% | 38% | 20% | 2% |
25 Mar | NOP | The Independent | 39% | 42% | 14% | 3% |
24 Mar | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 40% | 40.5% | 16.5% | 0.5% |
24 Mar | MORI | N/A | 38% | 41% | 17% | 3% |
24 Mar | ICM | The Guardian | 39% | 40% | 17% | 1% |
23 Mar | NMR | EUR | 38% | 39% | 19% | 1% |
23 Mar | Harris | Daily Express | 43% | 38% | 15% | 5% |
23 Mar | Harris | ITN | 38% | 42% | 16% | 4% |
21 Mar | MORI | The Times | 38% | 41% | 17% | 3% |
21 Mar | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 38% | 40% | 16% | 2% |
20 Mar | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 39% | 41% | 15% | 2% |
20 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 41% | 19% | 3% |
20 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 40% | 39% | 17% | 1% |
18 Mar | ICM | Sunday Express | 37% | 42% | 16% | 5% |
18 Mar | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 40.5% | 38.5% | 18% | 2% |
17 Mar | NOP | The Independent | 38% | 42% | 17% | 4% |
16 Mar | ICM | The Guardian | 38% | 43% | 16% | 5% |
16 Mar | Harris | Daily Express | 41% | 38% | 17% | 3% |
13 Mar | MORI | The Times | 38% | 43% | 16% | 5% |
13 Mar | Harris | Daily Express | 39% | 40% | 16% | 1% |
13 Mar | Harris | London Weekend Television | 37% | 41% | 17% | 4% |
13 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 40% | 39% | 16% | 1% |
13 Mar | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 40% | 41% | 14% | 1% |
12 Mar | ICM | Sunday Express | 39% | 40% | 16% | 1% |
12 Mar | MORI | The Times | 38% | 41% | 16% | 3% |
12 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 40% | 43% | 12% | 3% |
11 Mar | Gallup | N/A | 41% | 38.5% | 15% | 2.5% |
10 Mar | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 41% | 40% | 15% | 1% |
7 Mar | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 37% | 38% | 20% | 1% |
7 Mar | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 38% | 41% | 16% | 3% |
6 Mar | ICM | The Guardian | 39% | 42% | 15% | 3% |
2 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 40% | 14% | 1% |
25 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 38.5% | 38.5% | 18.5% | Tie |
25 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 37% | 37.5% | 20% | 0.5% |
23 Feb | MORI | The Sunday Times | 39% | 40% | 18% | 1% |
22 Feb | Audience Selection | N/A | 36% | 38% | 18% | 2% |
18 Feb | ICM | Daily Mail | 38% | 41% | 17% | 3% |
17 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 39% | 37% | 19% | 2% |
14 Feb | NOP | The Independent | 38% | 42% | 15% | 4% |
13 Feb | ICM | Sunday Express | 40% | 39% | 16% | 1% |
11 Feb | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 40% | 15% | 1% |
8 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 40% | 37.5% | 17.5% | 2.5% |
7 Feb | ICM | The Guardian | 40% | 40% | 16% | Tie |
6 Feb | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 38% | 42% | 15% | 4% |
3 Feb | Harris | Daily Express | 39% | 40% | 17% | 1% |
28 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42.5% | 37.5% | 14% | 5% |
26 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 38% | 39.5% | 17.5% | 1.5% |
25 Jan | Audience Selection | N/A | 40% | 40% | 15% | Tie |
23 Jan | ICM | Daily Mail | 41% | 40% | 13% | 1% |
21 Jan | Harris | Daily Express | 41% | 40% | 14% | 1% |
21 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 40% | 38% | 16.5% | 2% |
17 Jan | MORI | The Sunday Times | 42% | 39% | 16% | 3% |
16 Jan | ICM | Sunday Express | 41% | 42% | 14% | 1% |
13 Jan | Harris | The Observer | 42% | 43% | 13% | 1% |
13 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42% | 37.5% | 16% | 4.5% |
11 Jan | NOP | The Independent | 40% | 43% | 13% | 3% |
8 Jan | ICM | The Guardian | 42% | 41% | 12% | 1% |
8 Jan | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 40% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
Survey end date | Pollster | Client | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
27 Dec | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 44% | 14% | 6% |
15 Dec | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 42% | 41.5% | 13% | 0.5% |
13 Dec | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 41% | 40% | 14% | 1% |
7 Dec | ICM | The Guardian | 39% | 42% | 14% | 3% |
5 Dec | MORI | The Times | 40% | 43% | 12% | 3% |
2 Dec | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 39.5% | 37% | 19% | 2.5% |
2 Dec | Audience Selection | N/A | 39% | 40% | 16% | 1% |
25 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 40% | 42% | 15% | 2% |
25 Nov | NOP | The Independent | 40% | 41% | 15% | 1% |
23 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 41% | 43% | 13% | 2% |
23 Nov | ICM | Daily Mail | 39% | 41% | 16% | 2% |
14 Nov | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 44% | 13% | 5% |
9 Nov | ICM | The Guardian | 41% | 43% | 13% | 2% |
7 Nov | Hemsworth, Kincardine and Deeside and Langbaurgh by-elections | |||||
4 Nov | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 36% | 44% | 15.5% | 8% |
1 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 42% | 41% | 13% | 1% |
28 Oct | Audience Selection | N/A | 37% | 42% | 16% | 5% |
27 Oct | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 45% | 12% | 6% |
26 Oct | ICM | Daily Mail | 40% | 42% | 13% | 2% |
21 Oct | MORI | The Sunday Times | 39% | 45% | 12% | 6% |
21 Oct | NOP | The Independent | 39% | 45% | 12% | 6% |
17 Oct | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 46% | 12% | 7% |
12 Oct | ICM | The Guardian | 41% | 43% | 12% | 2% |
5 Oct | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 39% | 46% | 13% | 7% |
4 Oct | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 39.5% | 41.5% | 15% | 2% |
3 Oct | ICM | Press Association | 40% | 42% | 13% | 2% |
30 Sep | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42% | 38% | 15% | 4% |
30 Sep | Audience Selection | N/A | 41% | 37% | 14% | 4% |
28 Sep | ICM | Daily Mail | 40% | 42% | 14% | 2% |
26 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 40% | 41% | 13% | 1% |
26 Sep | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 40% | 39% | 16% | 1% |
24 Sep | MORI | The Sunday Times | 39% | 39% | 17% | Tie |
23 Sep | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 40% | 38.5% | 16% | 1.5% |
23 Sep | NOP | The Independent | 39% | 42% | 14% | 3% |
20 Sep | MORI | N/A | 39% | 43% | 14% | 4% |
14 Sep | ICM | The Guardian | 39% | 39% | 17% | Tie |
13 Sep | ICM | Sunday Express | 41% | 37% | 17% | 4% |
12 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 43% | 38% | 16% | 5% |
7 Sep | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 41% | 39% | 15% | 2% |
2 Sep | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 39.5% | 35% | 19.5% | 4.5% |
27 Aug | MORI | The Sunday Times | 42% | 40% | 14% | 2% |
24 Aug | ICM | Daily Mail | 40% | 43% | 12% | 3% |
19 Aug | NOP | The Independent | 38% | 44% | 12% | 6% |
15 Aug | Harris | The Observer | 40% | 41% | 14% | 1% |
10 Aug | ICM | The Guardian | 36% | 45% | 16% | 9% |
5 Aug | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 36% | 41% | 16.5% | 5% |
1 Aug | Audience Selection | N/A | 39% | 40% | 15% | 1% |
29 Jul | Audience Selection | N/A | 35% | 43% | 15% | 8% |
24 Jul | ICM | Daily Express | 38% | 44% | 13% | 6% |
22 Jul | MORI | N/A | 38% | 43% | 15% | 5% |
20 Jul | ICM | Daily Mail | 37% | 44% | 16% | 7% |
18 Jul | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 42% | 14% | 3% |
15 Jul | NOP | The Independent | 39% | 43% | 13% | 4% |
6 Jul | ICM | The Guardian | 37% | 43% | 16% | 6% |
4 Jul | Liverpool Walton by-election | |||||
1 Jul | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 37% | 40.5% | 17% | 3.5% |
27 Jun | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 41% | 42% | 13% | 1% |
24 Jun | MORI | N/A | 39% | 41% | 15% | 2% |
21 Jun | ICM | Daily Mail | 35% | 44% | 17% | 9% |
21 Jun | MORI | Sunday Express | 39% | 38% | 17% | 1% |
17 Jun | NOP | The Independent | 37% | 45% | 14% | 8% |
13 Jun | Harris | The Observer | 35% | 45% | 16% | 10% |
8 Jun | ICM | The Guardian | 34% | 44% | 17% | 10% |
3 Jun | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 33.5% | 41.5% | 21% | 8% |
2 Jun | Harris | TV-AM | 36% | 43% | 15% | 7% |
1 Jun | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 37% | 43% | 16% | 6% |
1 Jun | Audience Selection | N/A | 41% | 42% | 13% | 1% |
28 May | MORI | The Sunday Times | 37% | 43% | 16% | 6% |
25 May | ICM | Daily Mail | 37% | 41% | 16% | 4% |
20 May | NOP | The Independent | 36% | 44% | 15% | 8% |
18 May | Audience Selection | N/A | 39% | 39% | 19% | Tie |
16 May | Harris | The Observer | 38% | 42% | 16% | 4% |
16 May | Monmouth by-election | |||||
11 May | ICM | The Guardian | 37% | 43% | 16% | 6% |
6 May | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 38.5% | 38% | 18% | 0.5% |
2 May | 1991 local elections [5] | |||||
29 Apr | Audience Selection | N/A | 43% | 38% | 14% | 5% |
27 Apr | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 47% | 37% | 14% | 10% |
27 Apr | ICM | Daily Mail | 39% | 41% | 14% | 2% |
26 Apr | Harris | Sunday Express | 41% | 41% | 14% | Tie |
26 Apr | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 42% | 39% | 14% | 3% |
22 Apr | MORI | The Sunday Times | 42% | 40% | 15% | 2% |
22 Apr | NOP | The Independent | 41% | 41% | 13% | Tie |
18 Apr | Harris | The Observer | 40% | 40% | 14% | Tie |
6 Apr | ICM | The Guardian | 39% | 43% | 13% | 4% |
4 Apr | Neath by-election | |||||
3 Apr | ICM | Daily Express | 38% | 40% | 19% | 2% |
30 Mar | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 39.5% | 34.5% | 18% | 5% |
25 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 40% | 40% | 16% | Tie |
24 Mar | ICM | Daily Mail | 41% | 40% | 15% | 1% |
22 Mar | MORI | Sunday Express | 38% | 44% | 15% | 6% |
21 Mar | ICM | Daily Express | 37% | 40% | 14% | 3% |
14 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 40% | 39% | 17% | 1% |
12 Mar | Audience Selection | N/A | 44% | 32% | 19% | 12% |
11 Mar | NOP | The Independent | 38% | 39% | 18% | 1% |
9 Mar | ICM | The Guardian | 39% | 40% | 16% | 1% |
8 Mar | MORI | Sunday Express | 41% | 37% | 16% | 4% |
7 Mar | Ribble Valley by-election | |||||
5 Mar | NOP | N/A | 43% | 38% | 11% | 5% |
4 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 47% | 39% | 9% | 8% |
1 Mar | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 45% | 36.5% | 13% | 8.5% |
25 Feb | MORI | The Sunday Times | 44% | 41% | 11% | 3% |
23 Feb | ICM | Daily Mail | 44% | 43% | 9% | 1% |
16 Feb | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 47% | 40% | 8% | 7% |
14 Feb | Harris | The Observer | 46% | 42% | 8% | 4% |
13 Feb | NOP | The Independent | 45% | 42% | 9% | 3% |
9 Feb | ICM | The Guardian | 44% | 42% | 9% | 2% |
4 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42% | 42.5% | 10% | 0.5% |
4 Feb | Audience Selection | N/A | 46% | 39% | 8% | 7% |
3 Feb | Harris | The Observer | 47% | 39% | 9% | 8% |
28 Jan | Audience Selection | N/A | 51% | 34% | 8% | 17% |
21 Jan | MORI | The Sunday Times | 46% | 41% | 9% | 5% |
17 Jan | Harris | The Observer | 46% | 41% | 9% | 5% |
14 Jan | NOP | The Independent | 43% | 44% | 8% | 1% |
12 Jan | ICM | The Guardian | 43% | 43% | 10% | Tie |
11 Jan | Harris | ITN | 47% | 41% | 7% | 6% |
10 Jan | MORI | The Times | 44% | 42% | 11% | 2% |
7 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 43% | 41.5% | 10% | 1.5% |
6 Jan | Audience Selection | N/A | 39% | 43% | 11% | 4% |
Survey end date | Pollster | Client | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SDP | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 Dec | MORI | The Sunday Times | 41% | 45% | 9% | – | 4% |
13 Dec | Harris | The Observer | 44% | 40% | 10% | – | 4% |
10 Dec | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 43% | 40.5% | 10.5% | – | 2.5% |
10 Dec | NOP | The Independent | 47% | 42% | 7% | – | 5% |
8 Dec | ICM | The Guardian | 45% | 43% | 9% | – | 2% |
3 Dec | Audience Selection | N/A | 49% | 36% | 9% | – | 13% |
1 Dec | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 48% | 40% | 8% | – | 8% |
29 Nov | Paisley North & Paisley South by-elections | ||||||
28 Nov | Harris | ITN | 49% | 38% | 9% | – | 11% |
27 Nov | John Major is elected leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister [6] | ||||||
26 Nov | Audience Selection | N/A | 44% | 37% | 12% | – | 7% |
26 Nov | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 44% | 41% | 10% | – | 3% |
26 Nov | NOP | The Independent | 49% | 38% | 9% | – | 11% |
23 Nov | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 43% | 41.5% | 11% | – | 1.5% |
23 Nov | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 46% | 40% | 10% | – | 6% |
22 Nov | Margaret Thatcher resigns as Prime Minister [7] | ||||||
19 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 46% | 12% | – | 8% |
19 Nov | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 36% | 44.5% | 10.5% | – | 8.5% |
19 Nov | NOP | The Independent | 40% | 45% | 11% | – | 5% |
18 Nov | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 35% | 48% | 11% | – | 13% |
17 Nov | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 42% | 44% | 11% | – | 2% |
16 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 37% | 48% | 11% | – | 11% |
16 Nov | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 37% | 49% | 9% | – | 12% |
15 Nov | Harris | ITN | 34% | 49% | 13% | – | 15% |
15 Nov | Harris | The Observer | 34% | 49% | 13% | – | 15% |
15 Nov | MORI | The Times | 41% | 45% | 10% | – | 4% |
14 Nov | NOP | The Independent | 32% | 46% | 15% | – | 14% |
10 Nov | ICM | The Guardian | 33% | 49% | 13% | – | 16% |
8 Nov | Bootle & Bradford North by-elections | ||||||
3 Nov | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 32% | 49% | 13% | – | 17% |
3 Nov | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 30% | 51% | 12% | – | 21% |
29 Oct | Audience Selection | N/A | 36% | 40% | 13% | – | 4% |
29 Oct | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 31.5% | 46% | 15.5% | – | 14.5% |
28 Oct | Harris | The Observer | 32% | 48% | 14% | – | 16% |
27 Oct | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 34% | 44% | 14% | – | 10% |
22 Oct | MORI | The Sunday Times | 33% | 49% | 14% | – | 16% |
22 Oct | NOP | The Independent | 35% | 45% | 15% | – | 10% |
18 Oct | Eastbourne by-election | ||||||
13 Oct | ICM | The Guardian | 36% | 49% | 9% | – | 13% |
1 Oct | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 31.5% | 46% | 14% | – | 14.5% |
29 Sep | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 33% | 52% | 10% | – | 19% |
27 Sep | Knowsley South by-election | ||||||
24 Sep | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 45% | 12% | – | 7% |
24 Sep | NOP | The Independent | 39% | 44% | 12% | – | 5% |
22 Sep | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 35% | 44% | 12% | – | 9% |
20 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 38% | 46% | 10% | – | 8% |
8 Sep | ICM | The Guardian | 37% | 50% | 8% | – | 13% |
8 Sep | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 31.5% | 46% | 14% | – | 14.5% |
3 Sep | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 35.5% | 48% | 8.5% | – | 12.5% |
3 Sep | Audience Selection | N/A | 38% | 45% | 6% | – | 7% |
1 Sep | Audience Selection | N/A | 32% | 45% | 15% | – | 13% |
25 Aug | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 37% | 51% | 6% | – | 14% |
23 Aug | Harris | The Observer | 38% | 46% | 10% | – | 8% |
20 Aug | MORI | The Sunday Times | 35% | 50% | 10% | – | 15% |
13 Aug | NOP | The Independent | 36% | 48% | 7% | – | 12% |
11 Aug | ICM | The Guardian | 38% | 49% | 9% | – | 11% |
30 Jul | Audience Selection | N/A | 35% | 46% | 9% | – | 11% |
30 Jul | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 33.5% | 48% | 11.5% | – | 14.5% |
23 Jul | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 46% | 10% | – | 8% |
21 Jul | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 36% | 52% | 7% | – | 16% |
19 Jul | Harris | The Observer | 37% | 49% | 7% | – | 12% |
16 Jul | NOP | The Independent | 37% | 50% | 7% | – | 13% |
7 Jul | ICM | The Guardian | 35% | 51% | 8% | – | 16% |
2 Jul | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 36% | 47% | 9% | – | 11% |
2 Jul | Audience Selection | N/A | 39% | 44% | 7% | – | 5% |
23 Jun | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 36% | 53% | 5% | – | 17% |
21 Jun | Harris | The Observer | 37% | 48% | 8% | – | 11% |
18 Jun | NOP | The Independent | 37% | 48% | 8% | – | 11% |
18 Jun | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 49% | 8% | – | 11% |
9 Jun | ICM | The Guardian | 35% | 54% | 5% | – | 19% |
8 Jun | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 36% | 49% | 9% | – | 13% |
4 Jun | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 29.5% | 53% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 23.5% |
28 May | Audience Selection | N/A | 37% | 47% | 5% | 3% | 10% |
26 May | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 36% | 50% | 5% | 1% | 14% |
24 May | Harris | The Observer | 32% | 50% | 9% | 1% | 18% |
24 May | Bootle by-election | ||||||
21 May | NOP | The Independent | 34% | 49% | 8% | 2% | 15% |
21 May | MORI | The Sunday Times | 35% | 48% | 8% | 4% | 13% |
17 May | Upper Bann by-election | ||||||
12 May | ICM | The Guardian | 32% | 50% | 8% | 4% | 18% |
4 May | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 34% | 47% | 8% | 3% | 13% |
3 May | 1990 local elections [8] | ||||||
30 Apr | Audience Selection | N/A | 32% | 49% | 6% | 4% | 17% |
30 Apr | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 32% | 47% | 7.5% | 4% | 15% |
28 Apr | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 31% | 51% | 7% | 3% | 20% |
28 Apr | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 30% | 53% | 8% | 2% | 23% |
24 Apr | MORI | The Sunday Times | 31% | 54% | 6% | 3% | 23% |
22 Apr | NOP | The Independent | 29% | 54% | 7% | 3% | 25% |
19 Apr | Harris | The Observer | 32% | 54% | 7% | 1% | 22% |
7 Apr | NMR | The Independent on Sunday | 30% | 54% | 5% | 4% | 24% |
7 Apr | ICM | The Guardian | 32% | 56% | 4% | 2% | 24% |
6 Apr | ICM | N/A | 32% | 54% | 5% | 2% | 22% |
2 Apr | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 28% | 52.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 24.5% |
26 Mar | Audience Selection | N/A | 30% | 51% | 6% | 3% | 21% |
24 Mar | NOP | The Independent on Sunday | 33% | 52% | 6% | 3% | 19% |
23 Mar | ICM | N/A | 28% | 55% | 7% | 2% | 27% |
22 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 29% | 57% | 6% | 3% | 28% |
22 Mar | Mid Staffordshire by-election | ||||||
20 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 31% | 54% | 6% | 2% | 23% |
12 Mar | NOP | The Independent | 33% | 51% | 6% | 3% | 18% |
10 Mar | ICM | The Guardian | 31% | 52% | 5% | 4% | 21% |
26 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 31% | 49.5% | 7% | 3.5% | 18.5% |
26 Feb | Audience Selection | N/A | 34% | 46% | 7% | 3% | 12% |
24 Feb | ICM | N/A | 33% | 52% | 6% | 3% | 19% |
22 Feb | Harris | The Observer | 36% | 48% | 8% | 2% | 12% |
19 Feb | MORI | The Sunday Times | 34% | 51% | 5% | 4% | 17% |
12 Feb | NOP | The Independent | 36% | 48% | 6% | 3% | 12% |
10 Feb | ICM | The Guardian | 36% | 51% | 5% | 3% | 15% |
29 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 32.5% | 48% | 8% | 3% | 15.5% |
29 Jan | Audience Selection | N/A | 38% | 47% | 5% | 4% | 9% |
27 Jan | ICM | N/A | 37% | 48% | 4% | 3% | 11% |
25 Jan | Harris | The Observer | 36% | 49% | 6% | 2% | 13% |
22 Jan | MORI | The Sunday Times | 36% | 48% | 5% | 3% | 12% |
18 Jan | Harris | The Observer | 37% | 48% | 6% | 3% | 11% |
15 Jan | NOP | The Independent | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 4% |
13 Jan | ICM | The Guardian | 38% | 47% | 5% | 3% | 9% |
8 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 35% | 45.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 10.5% |
Survey end date | Pollster | Client | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SDP | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 Dec | MORI | The Sunday Times | 39% | 46% | 6% | 3% | 7% |
18 Dec | Audience Selection | N/A | 40% | 42% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
17 Dec | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 38% | 49% | 4% | 3% | 11% |
14 Dec | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 46% | 6% | 1% | 7% |
8 Dec | ICM | The Guardian | 37% | 49% | 4% | 3% | 12% |
4 Dec | NOP | N/A | 38% | 45% | 7% | – | 7% |
4 Dec | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 37.5% | 43.5% | 9% | 3% | 6% |
27 Nov | MORI | N/A | 42% | 46% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
27 Nov | Audience Selection | N/A | 37% | 44% | 4% | 3% | 7% |
26 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 37% | 51% | 4% | 3% | 14% |
25 Nov | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 38% | 48% | 3% | 4% | 10% |
23 Nov | Harris | The Observer | 36% | 47% | 9% | 1% | 11% |
13 Nov | NOP | N/A | 34% | 46% | 9% | – | 12% |
11 Nov | ICM | The Guardian | 36% | 49% | 6% | 3% | 13% |
31 Oct | Harris | BBC | 37% | 50% | 6% | 2% | 13% |
30 Oct | Audience Selection | N/A | 33% | 50% | 4% | 2% | 17% |
30 Oct | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 35% | 44% | 8% | 2.5% | 9% |
29 Oct | MORI | The Sunday Times | 39% | 46% | 0% | – | 7% |
28 Oct | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 41% | 47% | 6% | – | 6% |
23 Oct | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 48% | 5% | 3% | 10% |
21 Oct | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 35% | 50% | 4% | 3% | 15% |
19 Oct | Harris | The Observer | 38% | 48% | 6% | 1% | 10% |
9 Oct | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 38% | 47.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 9.5% |
7 Oct | ICM | The Guardian | 39% | 49% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
5 Oct | Harris | The Observer | 38% | 49% | 5% | 2% | 11% |
4 Oct | NOP | Evening Standard | 37% | 46% | 5% | – | 9% |
3 Oct | ICM | Press Association | 37% | 45% | 4% | 3% | 8% |
3 Oct | Audience Selection | N/A | 37% | 39% | 6% | 3% | 2% |
2 Oct | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 35% | 41.5% | 8.5% | 5% | 6.5% |
28 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 38% | 45% | 5% | 3% | 7% |
26 Sep | MORI | The Sunday Times | 38% | 43% | 6% | 3% | 5% |
25 Sep | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 36.5% | 42% | 7.5% | 2% | 5.5% |
25 Sep | NOP | The Mail on Sunday | 34% | 46% | 7% | – | 12% |
23 Sep | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 39% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 6% |
20 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 39% | 42% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
14 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 37% | 45% | 6% | 3% | 8% |
9 Sep | ICM | The Guardian | 36% | 46% | 7% | 4% | 10% |
4 Sep | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 36.5% | 43% | 6.5% | 3% | 6.5% |
4 Sep | NOP | The Independent | 38% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 4% |
28 Aug | Audience Selection | N/A | 37% | 42% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
26 Aug | ICM | The Sunday Correspondent | 38% | 46% | 6% | 3% | 8% |
24 Aug | Harris | The Observer | 37% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 8% |
21 Aug | NOP | N/A | 40% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
21 Aug | MORI | The Sunday Times | 40% | 45% | 4% | 3% | 5% |
12 Aug | ICM | The Guardian | 36% | 44% | 6% | 3% | 8% |
31 Jul | Audience Selection | N/A | 38% | 41% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
26 Jul | MORI | The Sunday Times | 36% | 45% | 4% | 4% | 9% |
20 Jul | Harris | The Observer | 37% | 44% | 6% | 3% | 7% |
10 Jul | NOP | N/A | 36% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 6% |
8 Jul | ICM | The Guardian | 38% | 42% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
7 Jul | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 34% | 44.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 10.5% |
3 Jul | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 34% | 47% | 6% | 3.5% | 13% |
3 Jul | Audience Selection | N/A | 35% | 43% | 4% | 3% | 8% |
27 Jun | MORI | The Sunday Times | 37% | 47% | 4% | 3% | 10% |
22 Jun | Harris | The Observer | 34% | 48% | 6% | 2% | 14% |
15 Jun | Glasgow Central & Vauxhall by-elections | ||||||
15 Jun | 1989 European Parliament election [9] | ||||||
12 Jun | NOP | N/A | 40% | 42% | 8% | 4% | 2% |
10 Jun | ICM | The Guardian | 38% | 42% | 8% | 4% | 4% |
10 Jun | MORI | The Times | 39% | 44% | 7% | 4% | 5% |
5 Jun | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 36.5% | 43.5% | 8% | 3% | 7% |
29 May | Audience Selection | N/A | 41% | 45% | 6% | 4% | 4% |
23 May | Harris | The Observer | 46% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 5% |
22 May | NOP | N/A | 42% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
22 May | MORI | The Sunday Times | 41% | 43% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
17 May | 1989 Northern Ireland local elections | ||||||
13 May | ICM | The Guardian | 43% | 43% | 8% | 3% | Tie |
4 May | Vale of Glamorgan by-election [10] | ||||||
4 May | 1989 local elections [11] | ||||||
1 May | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 40.5% | 37.5% | 10% | 7% | 3% |
30 Apr | Audience Selection | N/A | 42% | 38% | 7% | 9% | 4% |
24 Apr | NOP | N/A | 43% | 37% | 9% | 4% | 6% |
24 Apr | MORI | The Sunday Times | 41% | 41% | 9% | 6% | Tie |
20 Apr | Harris | The Observer | 42% | 39% | 11% | 4% | 3% |
8 Apr | ICM | The Guardian | 44% | 40% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
3 Apr | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 37.5% | 40% | 10% | 8% | 2.5% |
27 Mar | MORI | The Times | 43% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 4% |
23 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 41% | 41% | 9% | 3% | Tie |
20 Mar | NOP | N/A | 42% | 37% | 0% | – | 5% |
19 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 41% | 40% | 9% | 6% | 1% |
19 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 44% | 40% | 6% | 6% | 4% |
13 Mar | ICM | The Guardian | 41% | 39% | 8% | 7% | 2% |
5 Mar | MORI | BBC | 41% | 37% | 9% | 4% | 4% |
28 Feb | MORI | N/A | 42% | 41% | 8% | 4% | 1% |
28 Feb | MORI | The Sunday Times | 42% | 39% | 9% | 7% | 3% |
27 Feb | Audience Selection | N/A | 44% | 35% | 7% | 11% | 9% |
27 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 37.5% | 37.5% | 11.5% | 8.5% | Tie |
23 Feb | Harris | The Observer | 41% | 42% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
23 Feb | Pontypridd & Richmond by-elections | ||||||
20 Feb | NOP | N/A | 41% | 37% | 11% | 4% | 4% |
20 Feb | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 39% | 39% | 11% | 5% | Tie |
13 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 40.5% | 39% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
11 Feb | ICM | The Guardian | 42% | 39% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
30 Jan | MORI | The Sunday Times | 47% | 36% | 8% | 5% | 11% |
30 Jan | Audience Selection | N/A | 44% | 39% | 8% | 5% | 5% |
29 Jan | Harris | BBC | 50% | 37% | 6% | – | 13% |
23 Jan | NOP | N/A | 46% | 34% | 10% | 3% | 12% |
19 Jan | Harris | The Observer | 47% | 37% | 10% | 4% | 10% |
16 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42.5% | 34% | 14% | 5.5% | 8.5% |
16 Jan | ICM | The Guardian | 44% | 40% | 8% | 4% | 4% |
15 Jan | Harris/Channel 4 | N/A | 44% | 41% | 10% | – | 3% |
Survey end date | Pollster | Client | Con | Lab | SLD | SDP | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 Dec | Audience Selection | N/A | 45% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 8% |
29 Dec | MORI | The Sunday Times | 46% | 36% | 6% | 7% | 10% |
15 Dec | Epping Forest by-election | ||||||
12 Dec | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 43% | 32% | 13% | 6.5% | 11% |
6 Dec | Marplan | The Guardian | 45% | 39% | 8% | 4% | 6% |
2 Dec | NOP | N/A | 41% | 36% | 11% | 4% | 5% |
30 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 45% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 8% |
30 Nov | MORI | N/A | 44% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 5% |
28 Nov | Audience Selection | N/A | 40% | 39% | 9% | 6% | 1% |
24 Nov | Harris | The Observer | 44% | 39% | 9% | 3% | 5% |
14 Nov | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42.5% | 36% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% |
10 Nov | Glasgow Govan by-election | ||||||
7 Nov | NOP | N/A | 45% | 36% | 10% | 4% | 9% |
7 Nov | Marplan | The Guardian | 42% | 42% | 8% | 5% | Tie |
31 Oct | MORI | The Sunday Times | 44% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 5% |
31 Oct | Audience Selection | N/A | 46% | 35% | 7% | 6% | 11% |
24 Oct | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 45.5% | 34% | 12.5% | 5% | 11.5% |
20 Oct | Harris | The Observer | 49% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 9% |
12 Oct | NOP | N/A | 46% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 10% |
11 Oct | Marplan | N/A | 45% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 5% |
11 Oct | Marplan | The Guardian | 44% | 40% | 7% | 5% | 4% |
10 Oct | MORI | N/A | 46% | 39% | 8% | 4% | 7% |
29 Sep | Harris | TV-AM | 48% | 36% | 11% | 2% | 12% |
26 Sep | MORI | The Sunday Times | 44% | 39% | 8% | 6% | 5% |
22 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 47% | 38% | 8% | 5% | 9% |
14 Sep | Marplan | The Guardian | 44% | 42% | 9% | 3% | 2% |
14 Sep | NOP | N/A | 46% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 8% |
12 Sep | Audience Selection | N/A | 42% | 40% | 8% | 6% | 2% |
12 Sep | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 43% | 36.5% | 12.5% | 5% | 6.5% |
22 Aug | MORI | The Sunday Times | 50% | 36% | 8% | 4% | 14% |
15 Aug | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 45.5% | 33.5% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
9 Aug | Marplan | The Guardian | 45% | 41% | 7% | 4% | 4% |
29 Jul | Paddy Ashdown is elected leader of the Social and Liberal Democrats [12] [13] | ||||||
25 Jul | NOP | N/A | 46% | 36% | 10% | 4% | 10% |
25 Jul | MORI | The Sunday Times | 46% | 41% | 8% | 4% | 5% |
21 Jul | Harris | The Observer | 46% | 41% | 9% | 3% | 5% |
18 Jul | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 41.5% | 39% | 9% | 7% | 2.5% |
14 Jul | Kensington by-election | ||||||
12 Jul | Marplan | The Guardian | 45% | 43% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
11 Jul | MORI | N/A | 48% | 38% | 7% | 5% | 10% |
3 Jul | Harris | TV-AM | 47% | 38% | 9% | 3% | 9% |
28 Jun | MORI | The Sunday Times | 48% | 38% | 7% | 5% | 10% |
28 Jun | Audience Selection | N/A | 45% | 38% | 8% | 5% | 7% |
27 Jun | NOP | N/A | 49% | 34% | 10% | 4% | 15% |
23 Jun | Harris | The Observer | 48% | 36% | 9% | 3% | 12% |
13 Jun | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42% | 43% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
11 Jun | MORI | N/A | 47% | 40% | 7% | 4% | 7% |
7 Jun | Marplan | The Guardian | 47% | 42% | 5% | 3% | 5% |
4 Jun | Harris | TV-AM | 43% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 3% |
1 Jun | MORI | The Sunday Times | 44% | 40% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
29 May | Audience Selection | N/A | 40% | 43% | 6% | 8% | 3% |
23 May | NOP | N/A | 47% | 37% | 8% | 4% | 10% |
19 May | Harris | The Observer | 44% | 41% | 10% | 2% | 3% |
16 May | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 45% | 36% | 8.5% | 6% | 9% |
10 May | Marplan | The Guardian | 44% | 42% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
5 May | 1988 local elections [14] | ||||||
2 May | Harris | TV-AM | 43% | 38% | 11% | – | 5% |
26 Apr | MORI | The Sunday Times | 44% | 42% | 6% | 5% | 1% |
21 Apr | Harris | The Observer | 44% | 39% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
18 Apr | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 40.5% | 41.5% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
12 Apr | Marplan | The Guardian | 43% | 42% | 8% | 5% | 1% |
11 Apr | NOP | N/A | 45% | 36% | 15% | – | 9% |
28 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 46% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 9% |
24 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 46% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 7% |
21 Mar | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 42% | 36.5% | 13% | 6.5% | 5.5% |
20 Mar | MORI | N/A | 46% | 39% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
13 Mar | Audience Selection | N/A | 45% | 40% | 11% | – | 5% |
8 Mar | Marplan | The Guardian | 43% | 42% | 14% | – | 1% |
3 Mar | The Liberal Party and the SDP merge to form the Social and Liberal Democrats [15] | ||||||
3 Mar | Harris | The Observer | 47% | 36% | 12% | 2% | 11% |
1 Mar | MORI | The Sunday Times | 46% | 38% | 14% | – | 8% |
29 Feb | Harris | N/A | 44% | 43% | 12% | – | 1% |
15 Feb | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 46% | 36% | 15% | – | 10% |
14 Feb | Audience Selection | N/A | 45% | 41% | 11% | – | 4% |
9 Feb | Marplan | The Guardian | 45% | 41% | 8% | 4% | 4% |
8 Feb | NOP | N/A | 45% | 37% | 14% | – | 8% |
26 Jan | MORI | The Sunday Times | 50% | 36% | 12% | – | 14% |
18 Jan | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 45.5% | 37% | 15% | – | 7.5% |
11 Jan | NOP | N/A | 47% | 35% | 16% | – | 12% |
11 Jan | Marplan | The Guardian | 42% | 40% | 17% | – | 2% |
Survey end date | Pollster | Client | Con | Lab | All | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 Dec | MORI | The Sunday Times | 48% | 36% | 15% | 12% |
14 Dec | NOP | N/A | 47% | 35% | 15% | 12% |
8 Dec | Marplan | The Guardian | 47% | 37% | 13% | 10% |
7 Dec | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 46.5% | 34.5% | 16% | 12% |
30 Nov | NOP | N/A | 49% | 34% | 15% | 15% |
25 Nov | MORI | The Sunday Times | 50% | 38% | 11% | 12% |
16 Nov | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 46.5% | 33% | 17% | 13.5% |
3 Nov | NOP | N/A | 45% | 36% | 15% | 9% |
26 Oct | MORI | The Sunday Times | 47% | 37% | 14% | 10% |
19 Oct | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 52% | 31.5% | 13.5% | 20.5% |
19 Oct | MORI | N/A | 50% | 34% | 14% | 16% |
13 Oct | Marplan | The Guardian | 45% | 39% | 13% | 6% |
30 Sep | MORI | The Sunday Times | 49% | 36% | 12% | 13% |
28 Sep | NOP | N/A | 50% | 34% | 13% | 16% |
21 Sep | Gallup | The Sunday Telegraph | 48% | 35.5% | 14% | 12.5% |
20 Sep | Harris | The Observer | 47% | 35% | 16% | 12% |
7 Sep | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 44% | 33% | 20% | 11% |
3 Sep | NOP | N/A | 49% | 33% | 16% | 16% |
26 Aug | MORI | The Sunday Times | 48% | 36% | 14% | 12% |
24 Aug | NOP | N/A | 48% | 33% | 17% | 15% |
17 Aug | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 45.5% | 35.5% | 17.5% | 10% |
28 Jul | MORI | The Sunday Times | 49% | 33% | 17% | 16% |
16 Jul | Harris | The Observer | 48% | 33% | 17% | 15% |
13 Jul | Gallup | The Daily Telegraph | 44.5% | 33% | 20.5% | 11.5% |
2 Jul | Harris | TV-AM | 42% | 36% | 20% | 6% |
1 Jul | MORI | The Sunday Times | 49% | 31% | 17% | 18% |
29 Jun | NOP | N/A | 42% | 33% | 23% | 9% |
11 Jun | 1987 general election | 43.3% | 31.5% | 23.1% | 11.8% |
Neil Gordon Kinnock, Baron Kinnock, is a Welsh politician who was Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party from 1983 to 1992. He was a Member of Parliament (MP) from 1970 to 1995, first for Bedwellty and then for Islwyn. He was Vice-President of the European Commission from 1999 to 2004. Kinnock was considered to be on the soft left of the Labour Party.
The 1997 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 1 May 1997. The governing Conservative Party led by Prime Minister John Major was defeated in a landslide by the opposition Labour Party led by Tony Blair, achieving a 179-seat majority and a total of 418 seats.
The 1983 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 9 June 1983. It gave the Conservative Party under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher the most decisive election victory since that of the Labour Party in 1945, with a majority of 144 seats and the first of two consecutive landslide victories.
The 1992 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 9 April 1992, to elect 651 members to the House of Commons. The governing Conservative Party led by the prime minister John Major won majority of 21, and would be the last time that the Conservatives would win an overall majority at a general election until 2015. It was also the last general election to be held on a day which did not coincide with any local elections until 2017. This election result took many by surprise, as opinion polling leading up to the election day had shown a narrow but consistent lead for the Labour Party under leader Neil Kinnock during a period of recession and declining living standards.
The SDP–Liberal Alliance was a centrist and social liberal political and electoral alliance in the United Kingdom.
The 2010 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 May 2010, to elect Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. The election took place in 650 constituencies across the United Kingdom under the first-past-the-post system. The election resulted in a large swing to the opposition Conservative Party led by David Cameron similar to that seen in 1979, the last time a Conservative opposition had ousted a Labour government. The governing Labour Party led by the prime minister Gordon Brown lost the 66-seat majority it had previously enjoyed, but no party achieved the 326 seats needed for a majority. The Conservatives won the most votes and seats, but still fell 20 seats short. This resulted in a hung parliament where no party was able to command a majority in the House of Commons. This was only the second general election since the Second World War to return a hung parliament, the first being the February 1974 election. This election marked the start of Conservative government for the next 14 years.
"Shy Tory factor" is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon first observed by psephologists in the early 1990s. They observed that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls. The accepted explanation was that so-called "shy Tories" were voting Conservative after telling pollsters they would not. The general elections held in 1992 and 2015 are examples where it has allegedly affected the overall results, but has also been discussed in other elections where the Conservatives did unexpectedly well. It has also been applied to the success of the Republican Party in the United States or the continued electoral victories of the People's Action Party in Singapore.
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In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
In the run up to the general election of 2005, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
In the run up to the general election of 2001, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
Prior to the 1997 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.
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In the run-up to the 1983 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date ranges for these opinion polls are from the 1979 general election until 6 June 1983.
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