Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election

In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.

Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but Brown eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Brown has since claimed that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest. ^{[1] [2]}

In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader following the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.

2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse effect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MPs from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally at the 2009 European Parliament election, ^[3] and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.

On 6 April 2010, Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May, Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making Clegg deputy prime minister.

Background

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP–Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote. ^[4]

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data. ^[5] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest. ^{[6] [7] [8]}

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Polling since 2005

Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour Party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December, the Conservative Party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader. ^[9]

In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. This was the first consistent lead of the opinion polls that the Conservatives had enjoyed for 14 years.

Labour regained the lead in June 2007, following the resignation of Tony Blair as prime minister and the selection of Gordon Brown as his successor. Brown resisted calls from his party to hold a general election, despite opinion polls suggesting that Labour was capable of being re-elected at this stage. From November 2007, however, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2008 and again in late 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return - scenario which could have allowed Labour to cling onto power in a minority or coalition government. ^[10]

From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives by a narrow margin which was unprecedented in the period since the Lib Dems were founded in 1988. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted. ^[11]

Following the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament, and therefore it still appeared possible that Labour might remain in power as the main party in a minority or coalition government.

Exit poll

At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively, ^[12] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively. ^[13]

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats ^[14] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.

A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55. ^[13]

Graphical summaries

  Conservatives

  Labour

  Liberal Democrats

  UKIP

  BNP

  SNP

  Green

  Respect

The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.

The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period 11 April – 6 May 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.

Poll results

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.

Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.

2010

Pollster	Client	Date(s) Conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
2010 general election		6 May	–	29.7%	36.9%	23.6%	9.8%	7.2%
Ipsos MORI	Evening Standard	5 May	1,216	29%	36%	27%	8%	7%
YouGov	The Sun	4–5 May	6,483	28%	35%	28%	9%	7%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Mail	4–5 May	4,014	29%	35%	27%	7%	6%
Populus Archived 25 July 2018 at the Wayback Machine	The Times	4–5 May	2,505	28%	37%	27%	8%	9%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	4–5 May	2,283	24%	36%	29%	11%	7%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	4–5 May	1,383	27%	35%	26%	12%	8%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	4–5 May	1,025	28%	37%	28%	7%	9%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	3–4 May	1,527	28%	36%	26%	10%	8%
YouGov	The Sun	3–4 May	1,461	30%	35%	24%	11%	5%
TNS-BMRB	N/A	29 Apr–4 May	1,864	27%	33%	29%	11%	4%
Harris Interactive	The Metro	28 Apr–4 May	786	26%	36%	28%	10%	8%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	2–3 May	1,024	29%	37%	26%	8%	8%
YouGov	The Sun	2–3 May	1,455	28%	35%	28%	9%	7%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	30 Apr – 3 May	1,870	28%	33%	27%	12%	5%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sun	1–2 May	1,475	28%	34%	29%	9%	5%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	1–2 May	1,024	29%	37%	26%	8%	8%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	30 Apr – 2 May	1,026	28%	33%	28%	12%	5%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Times	30 Apr – 1 May	1,483	27%	35%	28%	10%	7%
ComRes	Multiple The Independent Sunday Mirror	30 Apr – 1 May	1,019	28%	38%	25%	9%	10%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sun	30 Apr	1,412	28%	34%	28%	10%	6%
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	30 Apr	1,019	29%	36%	27%	8%	7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	Sunday Express	29–30 Apr	1,874	23%	35%	29%	13%	6%
		29 Apr	The third Prime Ministerial debate
YouGov	The Sun	28–29 Apr	1,623	27%	34%	28%	11%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	27–28 Apr	1,530	27%	34%	31%	8%	3%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sun	26–27 Apr	1,598	29%	33%	28%	10%	4%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	26–27 Apr	1,006	29%	36%	26%	9%	7%
Populus	The Times	26–27 Apr	1,510	27%	36%	28%	8%	8%
TNS-BMRB	N/A	21–27 Apr	2,078	27%	34%	30%	9%	4%
YouGov	The Sun	25–26 Apr	1,491	28%	33%	29%	10%	4%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	25–26 Apr	1,005	29%	33%	29%	9%	4%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	23–26 Apr	1,942	25%	34%	28%	13%	6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	The Economist	23–26 Apr	2,433	23%	33%	30%	14%	3%
Harris Interactive	The Metro	20–26 Apr	1,678	25%	32%	30%	13%	2%
YouGov	The Sun	24–25 Apr	1,466	28%	34%	30%	8%	4%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	24–25 Apr	1,003	28%	32%	31%	9%	1%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	23–25 Apr	1,031	28%	33%	30%	8%	3%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	23–24 Apr	1,412	27%	35%	28%	9%	7%
ComRes	Multiple The Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror	23–24 Apr	1,006	28%	34%	29%	9%	5%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	23 Apr	1,020	26%	35%	31%	8%	4%
Ipsos MOR	News of the World	23 Apr	1,245	30%	36%	23%	11%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	22–23 Apr	1,381	29%	34%	29%	8%	5%
		22 Apr	The second Prime Ministerial debate
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sun	21–22 Apr	1,576	29%	34%	28%	9%	5%
YouGov	The Sun	20–21 Apr	1,545	27%	33%	31%	9%	2%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sun	19–20 Apr	1,595	26%	31%	34%	9%	3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	19–20 Apr	1,953	23%	32%	33%	12%	1%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	19–20 Apr	1,015	25%	35%	27%	13%	8%
Populus [ permanent dead link ]	The Times	19–20 Apr	1,501	28%	32%	31%	9%	1%
Ipsos MORI	Evening Standard	18–20 Apr	1,253	28%	32%	32%	8%	Tie
TNS-BMRB	N/A	14–20 Apr	1,953	29%	34%	30%	7%	4%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	18–19 Apr	1,012	26%	35%	26%	13%	9%
YouGov	The Sun	18–19 Apr	1,509	27%	33%	31%	8%	2%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	16–19 Apr	1,957	26%	32%	29%	13%	3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	16–19 Apr	2,004	24%	32%	32%	12%	Tie
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	14–19 Apr	1,792	26%	31%	30%	13%	1%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	17–18 Apr	1,003	28%	32%	28%	12%	4%
YouGov	The Sun	17–18 Apr	1,433	26%	32%	33%	8%	1%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	16–18 Apr	1,024	28%	33%	30%	9%	3%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Times	16–17 Apr	1,490	30%	33%	29%	8%	3%
ComRes	Multiple The Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror	16–17 Apr	1,006	27%	31%	29%	13%	2%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sun	15–16 Apr	1,290	28%	33%	30%	9%	3%
ComRes	ITV News	15 Apr	4,032	28%	35%	24%	13%	7%
		15 Apr	The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	14–15 Apr	1,033	29%	34%	27%	10%	5%
YouGov	The Sun	14–15 Apr	1,490	31%	37%	22%	10%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	13–14 Apr	1,578	32%	41%	18%	9%	9%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	12–13 Apr	1,001	29%	35%	21%	15%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	12–13 Apr	1,583	31%	39%	20%	9%	8%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	8–13 Apr	1,523	27%	36%	23%	14%	9%
TNS-BMRB [ permanent dead link ]	N/A	7–13 Apr	1,916	33%	36%	22%	9%	3%
Populus	The Times	12 Apr	1,525	33%	36%	21%	9%	3%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	11–12 Apr	1,002	31%	36%	19%	14%	5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	11–12 Apr	2,006	28%	38%	22%	12%	10%
YouGov	The Sun	11–12 Apr	1,493	33%	39%	20%	8%	6%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	9–12 Apr	1,825	31%	39%	17%	13%	8%
ComRes	Multiple ITV News The Independent	10–11 Apr	1,004	30%	37%	20%	13%	7%
YouGov	The Sun	10–11 Apr	1,455	31%	37%	20%	12%	6%
ICM	The Guardian	9–11 Apr	1,024	31%	37%	20%	11%	6%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	9–10 Apr	1,431	32%	40%	18%	10%	8%
ComRes-	Multiple The Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror	9–10 Apr	1,001	32%	39%	16%	13%	7%
YouGov [ permanent dead link ]	The Sun	8–9 Apr	1,527	30%	40%	20%	10%	10%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Mail	7–8 Apr	1,012	27%	37%	22%	14%	10%
YouGov	The Sun	7–8 Apr	1,626	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	7 Apr	1,032	30%	38%	21%	10%	8%
YouGov	The Sun	6–7 Apr	1,484	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	6–7 Apr	2,193	26%	37%	22%	14%	11%
Populus	The Times	6 Apr	1,507	32%	39%	21%	8%	7%
YouGov	The Sun	5–6 Apr	1,456	32%	40%	17%	11%	8%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	31 Mar-6 Apr	2,080	28%	37%	20%	15%	9%
YouGov	The Sun	4–5 Apr	1,620	31%	41%	18%	11%	10%
Opinium	Daily Express	2–5 Apr	1,903	29%	39%	17%	15%	10%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	1–3 Apr	1,001	33%	37%	21%	9%	4%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	1–2 Apr	1,503	29%	39%	20%	12%	10%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	Sunday Express	31 Mar-1 Apr	1,991	27%	38%	20%	15%	11%
YouGov	The Sun	31 Mar-1 Apr	1,552	31%	39%	19%	11%	8%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	30–31 Mar	1,003	29%	38%	23%	10%	9%
YouGov	The Sun	30–31 Mar	1,615	32%	38%	19%	11%	6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	30–31 Mar	2,013	28%	37%	22%	13%	9%
YouGov	The Sun	29–30 Mar	1,681	31%	38%	19%	12%	7%
TNS-BMRB	N/A	24–30 Mar	1,819	33%	38%	19%	10%	5%
YouGov	The Sun	28–29 Mar	1,614	32%	39%	18%	11%	7%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	26–29 Mar	1,780	28%	38%	18%	16%	10%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	23–29 Mar	1,133	27%	37%	19%	17%	10%
ComRes	The Independent	26–28 Mar	1,001	30%	37%	20%	13%	7%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	25–26 Mar	1,533	32%	37%	19%	13%	5%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	News of the World	24–25 Mar	1,003	31%	39%	19%	11%	8%
YouGov	The Sun	24–25 Mar	1,483	33%	37%	18%	12%	4%
YouGov	The Sun	23–24 Mar	1,554	34%	36%	17%	13%	2%
YouGov	The Sun	22–23 Mar	1,756	33%	37%	18%	12%	4%
YouGov	The Sun	21–22 Mar	1,560	32%	36%	20%	12%	4%
Ipsos MORI	Daily Mirror	19–22 Mar	1,503	30%	35%	21%	14%	5%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	19–22 Mar	1,975	30%	37%	15%	18%	7%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	17–22 Mar	2,117	28%	35%	17%	20%	7%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	18–19 Mar	1,547	31%	38%	19%	13%	7%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	News of the World	17–18 Mar	1,002	32%	38%	19%	10%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	17–18 Mar	1,671	32%	36%	20%	12%	4%
YouGov	The Sun	16–17 Mar	1,676	32%	36%	20%	11%	4%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	15–16 Mar	2,003	26%	39%	21%	15%	13%
YouGov	The Sun	15–16 Mar	1,460	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	10–16 Mar	1,934	28%	36%	18%	18%	8%
YouGov	The Sun	14–15 Mar	1,466	32%	37%	21%	10%	5%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	12–15 Mar	1,951	28%	39%	16%	17%	11%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	12–14 Mar	1,002	31%	40%	20%	9%	9%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	11–12 Mar	1,507	33%	37%	17%	12%	4%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	10–11 Mar	1,007	31%	38%	21%	10%	7%
YouGov	The Sun	10–11 Mar	1,434	34%	37%	17%	12%	3%
YouGov	The Sun	9–10 Mar	1,473	32%	37%	17%	14%	5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	9–10 Mar	2,003	26%	39%	18%	17%	13%
YouGov	The Sun	8–9 Mar	1,524	32%	36%	20%	12%	4%
YouGov	The Sun	7–8 Mar	1,747	34%	39%	16%	11%	5%
Opinium [ permanent dead link ]	Daily Express	5–8 Mar	1,960	30%	37%	16%	16%	7%
Harris Interactive [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	3–8 Mar	1,498	29%	37%	18%	16%	8%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	4–5 Mar	1,558	33%	38%	17%	12%	5%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	News of the World	3–4 Mar	1,005	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
YouGov	The Sun	3–4 Mar	1,640	32%	38%	17%	13%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	2–3 Mar	1,661	32%	38%	19%	12%	6%
TNS-BMRB	N/A	25 Feb – 3 Mar	1,973	31%	39%	19%	11%	8%
YouGov	The Sun	1–2 Mar	1,479	33%	38%	16%	13%	5%
YouGov	The Sun	28 Feb-1 Mar	1,505	32%	39%	17%	12%	7%
ComRes	The Independent	26–28 Feb	1,005	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	25–26 Feb	1,436	35%	37%	17%	11%	2%
YouGov	The Sun	24–25 Feb	1,472	33%	39%	16%	12%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	23–24 Feb	1,473	32%	38%	19%	10%	6%
TNS-BMRB	N/A	18–24 Feb	1,954	32%	36%	21%	12%	4%
YouGov	The Sun	22–23 Feb	1,469	32%	38%	17%	12%	6%
YouGov	The Sun	21–22 Feb	1,578	33%	39%	17%	12%	6%
Ipsos MORI	The Daily Telegraph	19–22 Feb	1,533	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
Harris Interative [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	16–22 Feb	918	30%	39%	22%	9%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	19–21 Feb	1,004	30%	37%	20%	13%	7%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	18–19 Feb	1,472	33%	39%	17%	11%	6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	16–19 Feb	4,004	26%	38%	19%	16%	12%
YouGov	The Sun	17–18 Feb	1,558	32%	39%	18%	11%	7%
ComRes	Theos	16–17 Feb	1,085	30%	38%	20%	11%	8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	16–17 Feb	2,002	26%	40%	18%	16%	14%
YouGov	The Sun	16–17 Feb	2,145	30%	39%	18%	13%	9%
ComRes	The Independent	10–11 Feb	1,009	29%	40%	21%	10%	11%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	9–10 Feb	2,002	25%	38%	20%	16%	13%
Populus	The Times	5–7 Feb	1,502	30%	40%	20%	11%	10%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	3–4 Feb	1,001	30%	39%	20%	11%	9%
ComRes	The Independent	29–31 Jan	1,001	31%	38%	19%	12%	7%
BPIX [15]	Mail on Sunday	29–30 Jan	1,524	30%	39%	18%	13%	9%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	28–29 Jan	2,054	31%	38%	19%	12%	7%
YouGov	The People	26–28 Jan	2,044	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
Ipsos MORI	Daily Mirror	26–28 Jan	1,001	32%	40%	16%	12%	8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	PoliticalBetting.com	26–27 Jan	2,004	24%	40%	19%	16%	16%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	22–24 Jan	1,000	29%	40%	21%	10%	11%
ComRes	Sunday Mirror	20–21 Jan	1,004	29%	38%	19%	14%	9%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	14–15 Jan	2,033	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	13–14 Jan	1,005	29%	42%	19%	10%	13%
Angus Reid Strategies [ permanent dead link ]	PoliticalBetting.com	9–10 Jan	2,010	24%	40%	20%	17%	16%
Populus	The Times	8–10 Jan	1,509	28%	41%	19%	12%	13%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	6–7 Jan	1,003	30%	40%	18%	12%	10%
YouGov	The Sun	6–7 Jan	2,832	30%	42%	16%	12%	12%
YouGov	The Sun	5–6 Jan	4,167	31%	40%	17%	12%	9%

2009

Pollster	Client	Date(s) Conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	29–30 Dec	1,848	30%	40%	17%	12%	10%
ComRes	The Independent	19–20 Dec	1,006	29%	38%	19%	14%	9%
Angus Reid Strategies	PoliticalBetting.com	16–18 Dec	2,010	24%	40%	20%	15%	16%
YouGov	The People	15–17 Dec	2,052	28%	40%	18%	14%	12%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	11–13 Dec	1,009	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	11–13 Dec	1,017	26%	43%	20%	12%	17%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	10–11 Dec	2,044	31%	40%	16%	13%	9%
ComRes [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent on Sunday	9–10 Dec	1,001	24%	41%	21%	14%	17%
Angus Reid Strategies	PoliticalBetting.com	8–10 Dec	2,002	23%	40%	19%	19%	17%
Populus	The Times	4–6 Dec	1,505	30%	38%	20%	12%	8%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	3–4 Dec	2,095	27%	40%	18%	15%	13%
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	2–3 Dec	1,001	29%	40%	19%	12%	11%
ComRes	The Independent	27–29 Nov	1,003	27%	37%	20%	16%	10%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	24–26 Nov	2,004	29%	39%	19%	13%	10%
Angus Reid Strategies	PoliticalBetting.com	20–23 Nov	2,004	22%	39%	21%	18%	17%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	13–15 Nov	1,006	31%	37%	17%	13%	6%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	13–15 Nov	1,010	29%	42%	19%	10%	13%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	12–13 Nov	2,026	27%	41%	18%	14%	14%
		12 Nov	Glasgow North East by-election
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	11–12 Nov	1,007	25%	39%	17%	19%	14%
Populus	The Times	6–8 Nov	1,504	29%	39%	18%	14%	10%
Angus Reid Strategies [ permanent dead link ]	PoliticalBetting.com	4–6 Nov	2,000	24%	38%	20%	17%	14%
YouGov	Channel 4 News	4–5 Nov	1,021	27%	41%	17%	16%	14%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	28–29 Oct	1,007	25%	42%	21%	13%	17%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	27–29 Oct	2,024	28%	41%	16%	15%	13%
ComRes	The Independent	23–25 Oct	1,004	27%	40%	18%	15%	13%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	22–23 Oct	1,314	27%	40%	19%	14%	13%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	16–18 Oct	1,002	27%	44%	18%	11%	17%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	16–18 Oct	996	26%	43%	19%	11%	17%
Angus Reid Strategies [ permanent dead link ]	PoliticalBetting.com	15–16 Oct	2,077	23%	40%	20%	15%	17%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	15–16 Oct	2,025	30%	41%	17%	12%	11%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	14–15 Oct	1,008	28%	40%	19%	13%	12%
Populus	The Times	9–11 Oct	1,509	30%	40%	18%	12%	10%
YouGov	The Sun	8–9 Oct	2,161	28%	42%	18%	12%	14%
YouGov	Sky News	8–9 Oct	1,064	27%	44%	17%	12%	17%
ICM	News of the World	7–9 Oct	1,008	26%	45%	18%	10%	19%
YouGov	Sky News	7–8 Oct	1,074	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
YouGov	Sky News	6–7 Oct	1,039	29%	43%	17%	11%	14%
YouGov	Sky News	5–6 Oct	1,223	28%	41%	18%	13%	13%
YouGov	Sky News	4–5 Oct	1,102	27%	40%	20%	13%	13%
YouGov	The People	3 Oct	2,027	28%	40%	18%	14%	12%
YouGov	Sky News	1–2 Oct	1,053	29%	41%	17%	13%	12%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	30 Sep-1 Oct	1,022	28%	40%	19%	13%	12%
YouGov	Sky News	30 Sep-1 Oct	1,085	26%	40%	20%	15%	14%
YouGov	Sky News	29–30 Sep	1,078	30%	37%	21%	12%	7%
YouGov	Sky News	28–29 Sep	1,024	29%	40%	18%	13%	11%
YouGov	Sky News	27–28 Sep	1,051	29%	39%	20%	13%	10%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	25–27 Sep	1,003	24%	36%	25%	15%	11%
ComRes	The Independent	25–27 Sep	1,003	23%	38%	23%	16%	15%
YouGov	Sky News	24–25 Sep	1,059	24%	40%	21%	14%	16%
YouGov	Sky News	23–24 Sep	1,057	25%	38%	23%	14%	13%
ICM	News of the World	23–24 Sep	1,003	26%	40%	23%	11%	14%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	22–24 Sep	2,026	26%	39%	20%	15%	13%
YouGov	Sky News	22–23 Sep	1,036	28%	38%	19%	15%	10%
YouGov	Sky News	21–22 Sep	1,062	27%	39%	20%	13%	12%
YouGov	Sky News	20–21 Sep	1,081	30%	39%	17%	14%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 Sep	1,001	26%	43%	19%	12%	17%
Populus	The Times	11–13 Sep	1,506	27%	41%	18%	14%	14%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	10–11 Sep	2,009	27%	41%	17%	15%	14%
ComRes	The Independent	4–6 Sep	1,005	24%	40%	21%	15%	16%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	4–6 Sep	1,573	27%	40%	18%	15%	13%
YouGov	The Sun	27–28 Aug	1,996	28%	42%	17%	14%	14%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	25–27 Aug	2,199	26%	42%	18%	14%	16%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	21–23 Aug	1,013	26%	43%	17%	13%	17%
ICM	The Guardian	21–23 Aug	1,004	25%	41%	19%	14%	16%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	19–20 Aug	1,013	24%	41%	18%	16%	17%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	13–14 Aug	2,007	28%	42%	18%	13%	14%
ICM/Sunday Mirror	Sunday Mirror	12–13 Aug	1,005	26%	43%	19%	12%	17%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	28–30 July	2,334	27%	41%	18%	15%	14%
ComRes	The Independent	24–26 July	1,008	24%	42%	18%	16%	18%
		23 July	Norwich North by-election
YouGov	The People	21–23 July	2,218	25%	40%	20%	16%	15%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	17–19 July	1,012	24%	40%	18%	18%	16%
Populus	The Times	17–19 July	1,504	26%	38%	20%	16%	12%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	16–17 July	1,956	25%	42%	18%	15%	17%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	15–16 July	1,010	23%	38%	22%	16%	15%
ICM	The Guardian	10–11 July	1,000	27%	41%	20%	12%	14%
YouGov	Fabian Society	1–3 July	2,001	26%	39%	19%	17%	13%
ComRes	The Independent	26–28 June	1,007	25%	36%	19%	20%	11%
YouGov	The People	24–26 June	2,017	24%	40%	17%	19%	16%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	23–25 June	2,233	25%	38%	18%	19%	13%
Ipsos MORI [ permanent dead link ]	N/A	19–21 June	1,004	21%	38%	19%	23%	17%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	17–18 June	1,012	22%	39%	18%	21%	17%
Harris Interative [ permanent dead link ]	The Metro	10–17 June	2,081	20%	35%	16%	29%	15%
Ipsos MORI	UNISON	12–14 June	1,252	25%	39%	19%	17%	14%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	12–14 June	1,006	27%	39%	18%	15%	12%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	11–12 June	1,902	24%	40%	18%	19%	16%
Populus	The Times	9–10 June	1,001	24%	36%	19%	21%	12%
		8 June	2009 European Parliament election
ComRes	The Independent	5–7 June	1,001	22%	38%	20%	20%	16%
		5 June	2009 United Kingdom local elections
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	2–3 June	4,014	21%	37%	19%	23%	16%
ComRes	The Independent	29–31 May	1,005	22%	30%	18%	30%	8%
Ipsos MORI		29–31 May	1,001	18%	40%	18%	24%	22%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	27–29 May	5,016	22%	39%	18%	21%	17%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	27–28 May	1,013	22%	40%	25%	13%	15%
Populus	The Times	27–28 May	1,001	21%	41%	15%	23%	20%
Populus	ITV News	19–20 May	1,000	27%	39%	17%	18%	12%
ICM	The Guardian	15–17 May	1,002	28%	39%	20%	14%	11%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	14–16 May	2,235	23%	39%	19%	19%	16%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	13–14 May	1,010	21%	40%	18%	21%	19%
YouGov	The Sun	13–14 May	1,814	22%	41%	19%	18%	19%
Populus	The Times	8–10 May	1,504	26%	39%	22%	13%	13%
BPIX [15]	Mail on Sunday	8–9 May	Unknown [15]	23%	45%	17%	15%	22%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	7–8 May	2,209	27%	43%	18%	12%	16%
ComRes	The Independent	24–26 April	1,003	26%	45%	17%	12%	19%
YouGov/Sunday People	Sunday People	23–24 April	1,855	27%	45%	17%	12%	18%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	22–23 April	1,896	27%	45%	18%	10%	18%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	17–19 April	1,011	28%	41%	22%	9%	13%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	17–19 April	1,005	30%	40%	19%	11%	10%
Marketing Sciences	The Sunday Telegraph	15–16 April	1,007	26%	43%	21%	10%	17%
Populus	The Times	3–5 April	1,512	30%	43%	18%	9%	13%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	3–4 April	2,125	34%	41%	16%	10%	7%
ComRes	The Independent	27–29 March	1,002	28%	40%	18%	14%	12%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	25–26 March	1,003	31%	44%	18%	8%	13%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	24–26 March	2,104	31%	41%	17%	11%	10%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	18–19 March	1,002	30%	41%	17%	12%	11%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	13–15 March	1,004	30%	42%	20%	8%	12%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	13–15 March	1,007	32%	42%	14%	11%	10%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	12–13 March	1,840	31%	41%	17%	11%	10%
Populus	The Times	6–8 March	1,504	30%	42%	19%	9%	12%
ComRes	The Independent	27 Feb-1 Mar	1,006	28%	44%	17%	12%	16%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	24–26 Feb	2,063	31%	41%	15%	12%	10%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	20–22 Feb	1,004	30%	42%	18%	10%	12%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	13–15 Feb	1,001	28%	48%	17%	7%	20%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	12–13 Feb	1,711	32%	44%	14%	10%	12%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	11–12 Feb	1,002	25%	41%	22%	12%	16%
Populus	The Times	6–8 Feb	1,504	28%	42%	18%	12%	14%
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	4–5 Feb	1,010	28%	40%	22%	10%	12%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	27–29 Jan	2,338	32%	43%	16%	10%	11%
ICM	The Guardian	23–25 Jan	1,003	32%	44%	16%	8%	12%
ComRes	The Independent	21–22 Jan	1,012	28%	43%	16%	13%	15%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	16–18 Jan	1,005	30%	44%	17%	9%	14%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	15–16 Jan	2,077	32%	45%	14%	9%	13%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	14–15 Jan	1,009	32%	41%	15%	12%	9%
Populus	The Times	9–11 Jan	1,500	33%	43%	15%	9%	10%
YouGov	The Sun	7–8 Jan	1,835	34%	41%	15%	10%	7%

2008

Pollster	Client	Date(s) Conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
ComRes	The Independent	19–21 Dec	1,000	34%	39%	16%	11%	5%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	16–18 Dec	2,241	35%	42%	14%	9%	7%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	12–14 Dec	1,000	35%	39%	15%	11%	4%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	12–14 Dec	1,003	33%	38%	19%	10%	5%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	11–12 Dec	2,098	35%	41%	15%	10%	6%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	10–11 Dec	1,003	36%	37%	14%	12%	1%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	10–11 Dec	1,007	36%	41%	11%	12%	5%
Populus	The Times	5–7 Dec	1,505	35%	39%	17%	9%	4%
ComRes	The Independent	28–30 Nov	1,005	36%	37%	17%	10%	1%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	27–28 Nov	1,017	32%	43%	15%	10%	11%
ICM	The Guardian	25–26 Nov	1,027	30%	45%	18%	7%	15%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	24–25 Nov	1,556	36%	40%	14%	10%	4%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	Sunday Mirror	19–20 Nov	1,010	31%	42%	19%	8%	11%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	14–16 Nov	1,002	37%	40%	12%	11%	3%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	13–14 Nov	2,080	36%	41%	14%	10%	5%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	12–13 Nov	1,010	32%	43%	12%	13%	11%
Populus	The Times	7–9 Nov	1,503	35%	41%	16%	8%	6%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	5–6 Nov	1,005	30%	43%	18%	9%	13%
		6 Nov	Glenrothes by-election
BPIX [15]	N/A	2 NovP	?	31%	45%	13%	11%	14%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	27–29 Oct	2,271	33%	42%	15%	10%	9%
ComRes	The Independent	24–26 Oct	1,001	31%	39%	16%	14%	8%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	17–19 Oct	1,004	30%	45%	14%	11%	15%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	17–19 Oct	1,007	30%	42%	21%	7%	12%
BPIX [15]	N/A	16–18 Oct	2,046	30%	46%	13%	11%	16%
YouGov	The Daily Mirror	15–17 Oct	2,029	34%	42%	14%	10%	8%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	15–16 Oct	1,005	31%	40%	16%	14%	9%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	9–10 Oct	1,941	33%	43%	14%	10%	10%
Populus	The Times	3–5 Oct	1,503	30%	45%	15%	10%	15%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	1–3 Oct	2,048	31%	45%	15%	9%	14%
ComRes	The Independent	26–28 Sep	1,017	29%	41%	18%	12%	12%
BPIX [15]	N/A	24–26 Sep	2,020	31%	43%	17%	9%	12%
ICM	The Guardian	24–25 Sep	1,012	32%	41%	18%	9%	9%
YouGov	The Sun	23–24 Sep	1,536	31%	41%	16%	12%	10%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	17–18 Sep	1,010	27%	39%	21%	12%	12%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	17–19 Sep	2,227	24%	44%	20%	12%	20%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	12–14 Sep	1,017	24%	52%	12%	12%	28%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	10–12 Sep	2,161	27%	46%	16%	11%	19%
ComRes	The Independent	3–4 Sep	1,013	25%	44%	17%	14%	19%
Populus	The Times	29–31 Aug	1,506	27%	43%	18%	12%	16%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	26–27 Aug	2,267	26%	45%	16%	13%	19%
ComRes	The Independent	20–21 Aug	1,014	25%	46%	16%	13%	21%
ICM	The Guardian	15–17 Aug	1,002	29%	44%	19%	8%	15%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	15–17 Aug	1,005	24%	48%	16%	12%	24%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	14–15 Aug	1,745	25%	45%	18%	12%	20%
YouGov	News of the World	6–8 Aug	2,031	26%	46%	17%	11%	20%
BPIX [15]	N/A	31 Jul – 2 Aug	1,333	24%	47%	16%	13%	23%
ICM	Sunday Express	30 Jul – 1 Aug	1,001	29%	45%	16%	10%	16%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	29–31 July	1,949	25%	47%	16%	12%	22%
Populus	The Times	25–27 July	1,002	27%	43%	18%	12%	16%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	23–25 July	2,120	26%	45%	17%	12%	19%
ComRes	The Independent	23–24 July	1,021	24%	46%	18%	12%	22%
		24 July	Glasgow East by-election
Ipsos MORI	N/A	18–20 July	1,016	27%	47%	15%	11%	20%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	18–20 July	1,007	28%	43%	19%	10%	15%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	16–17 July	1,016	24%	45%	16%	15%	21%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	10–11 July	1,832	25%	47%	16%	12%	22%
Populus	The Times	4–6 July	1,507	28%	41%	19%	12%	13%
ComRes	The Independent	25–26 June	1,007	25%	46%	18%	11%	21%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	23–25 June	2,163	28%	46%	15%	11%	18%
		26 June	Henley by-election
ICM	The Guardian	20–22 June	1,000	25%	45%	20%	10%	20%
BPIX [15]	N/A	18–20 June	2,385	26%	49%	14%	11%	23%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	13–15 June	1,012	28%	45%	16%	11%	17%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	11–12 June	1,012	26%	44%	17%	13%	18%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	12–13 June	1,769	25%	47%	18%	10%	22%
Populus	The Times	6–8 June	1,508	25%	45%	20%	10%	20%
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	4–5 June	1,023	26%	42%	21%	11%	16%
ComRes	The Independent	30 May-1 June	1,006	30%	44%	16%	10%	14%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	27–29 May	2,241	23%	47%	18%	12%	24%
		22 May	Crewe and Nantwich by-election
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 May	1,008	27%	41%	22%	10%	14%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	15–16 May	1,854	25%	45%	18%	12%	20%
ComRes	The Independent on Sunday	14–15 May	1,004	26%	43%	19%	12%	17%
YouGov	The Sun	7–8 May	1,571	23%	49%	17%	11%	26%
Populus	The Times	2–4 May	1,509	29%	40%	19%	11%	11%
		1 May	2008 United Kingdom local elections
ComRes [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	25–27 Apr	1,005	26%	40%	20%	14%	14%
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	23–24 Apr	1,010	29%	39%	20%	12%	10%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	21–23 Apr	2,073	26%	44%	17%	13%	18%
Ipsos-MORI	The Observer	17–22 Apr	1,059	31%	40%	19%	10%	9%
ICM/The Gurdian	N/A	18–20 Apr	1,000	34%	39%	19%	8%	5%
Populus	Sunday Mirror	16–17 Apr	1,006	30%	40%	19%	11%	10%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	10–11 Apr	1,755	28%	44%	17%	11%	16%
Populus	The Times	8–10 Apr	1,502	33%	39%	17%	6%	6%
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	2–3 Apr	1,010	32%	43%	18%	7%	11%
ComRes	The Independent	28–30 Mar	1,004	31%	38%	17%	14%	7%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	25–27 Mar	1,926	29%	43%	17%	11%	14%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	13–18 Mar	1,983	35%	40%	18%	7%	5%
ICM	The Guardian	14–16 Mar	1,003	29%	42%	21%	8%	13%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	13–14 Mar	2,311	27%	43%	16%	13%	16%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	News of the World	12–13 Mar	1,002	31%	40%	20%	9%	9%
Populus	The Times	7–9 Mar	1,502	34%	37%	19%	10%	3%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	25–27 Feb	2,011	33%	40%	16%	11%	7%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	21–26 Feb	2,063	37%	39%	16%	8%	2%
ComRes	The Independent	22–24 Feb	1,010	30%	41%	17%	12%	11%
YouGov/The Economist	The Economist	18–20 Feb	2,118	34%	40%	16%	11%	6%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	15–17 Feb	1,003	34%	37%	21%	8%	3%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	14–15 Feb	2,469	32%	41%	16%	11%	9%
Populus	The Times	1–3 Feb	1,504	31%	40%	17%	12%	9%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	30–31 Jan	1,012	32%	37%	21%	10%	5%
ComRes	The Independent	25–27 Jan	1,003	30%	38%	17%	15%	8%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	21–23 Jan	1,992	33%	41%	16%	10%	8%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	17–22 Jan	2,045	38%	37%	16%	9%	1%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 Jan	1,009	35%	37%	20%	8%	2%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	10–11 Jan	2,139	33%	43%	14%	11%	10%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	9–10 Jan	1,011	33%	40%	18%	9%	7%
Ipsos MORI	The Sun	9–10 Jan	1,006	32%	42%	15%	11%	10%
Populus	The Times	4–6 Jan	1,509	33%	37%	19%	11%	4%

2007

Pollster	Client	Date(s) Conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	18–19 Dec	1,034	34%	39%	18%	9%	5%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	17–19 Dec	2,060	31%	43%	16%	11%	12%
		18 Dec	Nick Clegg becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
ComRes [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	14–16 Dec	1,004	30%	41%	16%	12%	11%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	13–14 Dec	1,481	32%	45%	14%	10%	13%
Populus	The Times	7–9 Dec	1,506	32%	40%	16%	11%	8%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	29 Nov-7 Dec	1,859	35%	42%	14%	9%	7%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	News of the World	28–29 Nov	1,011	30%	41%	19%	10%	11%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	26–29 Nov	4,004	32%	43%	14%	11%	11%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	23–27 Nov	1,933	32%	41%	17%	10%	9%
ComRes [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	23–25 Nov	1,009	27%	41%	18%	15%	13%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	21–22 Nov	1,005	31%	37%	21%	10%	6%
YouGov	Channel 4 News	21–22 Nov	1,600	32%	41%	14%	13%	9%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	14–16 Nov	1,983	35%	41%	13%	11%	6%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	Sunday Express	8–10 Nov	1,001	35%	43%	15%	7%	8%
Populus	The Times	2–4 Nov	1,503	37%	36%	16%	11%	1%
Ipsos MORI	The Sun	31 Oct-1 Nov	1,013	35%	40%	13%	12%	5%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Guardian	26–28 Oct	1,011	35%	40%	18%	7%	5%
ComRes [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	26–28 Oct	1,002	33%	42%	15%	10%	8%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	22–24 Oct	2,105	38%	41%	11%	10%	3%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	18–23 Oct	1,987	41%	40%	13%	6%	1%
ICM [ permanent dead link ]	The Sunday Telegraph	10–11 Oct	1,010	36%	43%	14%	8%	7%
Ipsos MORI	The Sun	10 Oct	1,007	38%	41%	11%	10%	3%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	5–6 Oct	1,757	38%	41%	11%	10%	3%
Populus	The Times	5–7 Oct	1,008	40%	38%	12%	10%	2%
YouGov	Channel 4 News	3–4 Oct	1,741	40%	36%	13%	11%	4%
ICM	The Guardian	3–4 Oct	1,008	38%	38%	16%	8%	Tie
Populus	The Times	2–3 Oct	1,000	39%	36%	15%	10%	3%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	26–28 Sep	2,165	43%	32%	15%	10%	11%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	27–28 Sep	1,000	41%	34%	16%	9%	7%
Populus	The Times	26–27 Sep	1,002	41%	31%	17%	10%	10%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	20–26 Sep	1,964	44%	31%	15%	10%	13%
YouGov	Channel 4 News	24–25 Sep	1,341	44%	33%	13%	11%	11%
Ipsos MORI	The Sun	20–22 Sep	1,009	42%	34%	14%	10%	8%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	19–21 Sep	2,085	39%	33%	16%	12%	6%
ICM	Sunday Mirror	19–20 Sep	1,029	39%	33%	19%	9%	6%
ICM	The Guardian	13–16 Sep	1,005	40%	32%	20%	8%	8%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	13–14 Sep	1,942	39%	34%	15%	12%	5%
ComRes [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	11–12 Sep	1,005	37%	34%	15%	14%	3%
Populus	The Times	31 Aug-2 Sep	1,506	37%	36%	18%	9%	1%
YouGov	GMTV	29–31 Aug	2,154	38%	35%	15%	12%	3%
ComRes [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	29–30 Aug	1,016	35%	36%	14%	14%	1%
Ipsos MORI	The Sun	23–29 Aug	1,941	41%	36%	16%	7%	5%
Populus	Conservative Party	25–28 Aug	530	37%	36%	16%	10%	1%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	24–28 Aug	2,266	41%	33%	14%	12%	8%
ICM	The Guardian	22–23 Aug	1,016	39%	34%	18%	9%	5%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	9–10 Aug	1,966	42%	32%	14%	12%	10%
ICM	Sunday Mirror	8–10 Aug	1,007	39%	33%	18%	10%	6%
Ipsos MORI	The Sun	8–9 Aug	531	38%	33%	15%	14%	5%
Populus	The Times	27–29 July	1,511	39%	33%	15%	13%	6%
Communicate [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	27–29 July	1,006	37%	34%	16%	14%	3%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	23–25 July	1,877	41%	32%	16%	11%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	20–22 July	1,005	38%	32%	20%	10%	6%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	19–20 July	1,664	40%	33%	15%	12%	7%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	12–17 July	1,919	41%	35%	15%	9%	6%
ICM	Sunday Mirror	4–5 July	1,006	37%	35%	17%	10%	2%
Populus	The Times	1 July	1,504	37%	34%	18%	11%	3%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	28–29 June	1,886	38%	35%	15%	12%	3%
ICM	The Guardian	27–28 June	1,005	39%	35%	18%	8%	4%
		27 June	Gordon Brown becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Communicate [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	22–24 June	1,005	32%	37%	18%	13%	5%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	14–20 June	1,970	39%	36%	15%	10%	3%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	14–15 June	1,753	35%	37%	14%	14%	2%
Populus	N/A	1–3 June	1,503	33%	36%	17%	14%	3%
ICM	The Sunday Telegraph	30–31 May	1,014	32%	37%	21%	10%	5%
Communicate [ permanent dead link ]	The Independent	25–28 May	1,003	31%	35%	19%	15%	4%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	21–23 May	2,050	33%	39%	15%	13%	6%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 May	1,003	32%	34%	21%	12%	2%
Populus	The Times	11–13 May	1,504	33%	37%	17%	13%	4%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	10–11 May	1,962	34%	38%	15%	14%	4%
		3 May	2007 United Kingdom local elections
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	23–25 Apr	2,019	32%	37%	18%	14%	5%
Ipsos MORI	The Observer	19–25 Apr	1,163	31%	38%	20%	11%	7%
ICM	The Guardian	20–22 Apr	1,005	30%	37%	21%	12%	7%
Populus	The Times	13–15 Apr	1,503	29%	37%	20%	14%	8%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	4–5 Apr	2,218	31%	39%	16%	14%	8%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	26–28 Mar	2,042	32%	39%	17%	13%	7%
Communicate [ permanent dead link ]	N/A	23–25 Mar	1,002	31%	35%	20%	14%	4%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	21–22 Mar	2,752	31%	39%	16%	14%	8%
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 Mar	1,011	31%	41%	18%	10%	10%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	15–16 Mar	1,897	32%	38%	16%	14%	6%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	9–15 Mar	1,983	33%	41%	17%	9%	8%
Populus	The Times	2–4 Mar	1,509	30%	38%	18%	14%	8%
Communicate [ permanent dead link ]	N/A	23–25 Feb	1,001	29%	40%	17%	14%	11%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	19–21 Feb	2,292	32%	37%	17%	14%	5%
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 Feb	1,000	31%	40%	19%	10%	9%
YouGov	The Sunday Times	8–9 Feb	2,019	32%	37%	18%	14%	5%
Populus	The Times	2–4 Feb	1,509	33%	36%	19%	12%	3%
Ipsos MORI	N/A	19–29 Jan	949	35%	39%	19%	7%	4%
Communicate [ permanent dead link ]	N/A	26–28 Jan	1,008	29%	34%	21%	16%	5%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	22–24 Jan	2,245	31%	38%	18%	13%	7%
ICM	The Guardian	19–21 Jan	1,004	31%	37%	23%	9%	6%
Populus	The Times	5–7 Jan	1,507	32%	39%	18%	11%	7%

2006

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation / Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
20–22 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,918	32%	37%	15%	15%	5%
18–20 Dec	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,874	33%	37%	17%	13%	4%
19–20 Dec	Communicate	1,009	37%	36%	14%	14%	1%
15–17 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	32%	40%	18%	10%	8%
9–12 Dec	Ipsos MORI	1,938	36%	37%	18%	9%	1%
8–10 Dec	Populus/The Times	1,513	33%	34%	19%	14%	1%
28–30 Nov	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,979	32%	37%	16%	15%	5%
29–30 Nov	ICM/News of the World	1,006	31%	39%	20%	10%	8%
24–26 Nov	Communicate	1,004	36%	34%	17%	12%	2%
17–19 Nov	ICM/The Guardian	1,000	32%	37%	22%	9%	5%
9–14 Nov	Ipsos MORI	1,115	33%	35%	20%	12%	2%
3–5 Nov	Populus/The Times	1,510	33%	36%	20%	11%	3%
24–26 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,722	32%	39%	16%	13%	7%
20–22 Oct	Communicate	977	32%	38%	14%	15%	6%
20–22 Oct	ICM/The Guardian	1,019	29%	39%	22%	9%	10%
12–16 Oct	Ipsos MORI/Financial Times	1,113	37%	35%	18%	10%	2%
6–8 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,515	35%	36%	18%	11%	1%
4–5 Oct	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,005	32%	38%	20%	10%	6%
28–30 Sep	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,029	35%	36%	19%	11%	1%
27–29 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,849	36%	36%	16%	12%	Tie
21–22 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,546	33%	37%	18%	12%	4%
19–22 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,733	31%	38%	18%	13%	7%
19–20 Sep	ICM/The Guardian	1,066	32%	36%	22%	10%	4%
13–14 Sep	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,003	33%	37%	21%	8%	4%
13–14 Sep	YouGov/The Sun	1,519	31%	38%	18%	14%	7%
6–7 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,504	32%	40%	17%	11%	8%
31 Aug – 6 Sep	Ipsos MORI/Sunday Times	1,186	36%	35%	19%	10%	1%
1–3 Sep	Populus/The Times	1,504	32%	36%	20%	13%	4%
22–24 Aug	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,757	31%	38%	18%	13%	7%
18–20 Aug	ICM/The Guardian	1,007	31%	40%	22%	8%	9%
24–26 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,633	33%	38%	18%	11%	5%
20–24 July	Ipsos MORI	1,897	32%	36%	24%	8%	4%
21–23 July	ICM/The Guardian	1,001	35%	39%	17%	9%	4%
7–9 July	Populus/The Times	1,512	34%	36%	19%	11%	2%
29 June	By-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chislehurst
28–29 June	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,003	35%	36%	18%	11%	1%
26–28 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,962	33%	39%	18%	10%	6%
22–26 June	Ipsos MORI	1,931	33%	36%	21%	10%	3%
21–23 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,009	32%	39%	17%	12%	7%
16–18 June	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	32%	37%	21%	9%	5%
8–12 June	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,975	34%	41%	18%	7%	7%
2–4 June	Populus/The Times	1,505	34%	37%	18%	11%	3%
25–30 May	Ipsos MORI	1,984	31%	41%	18%	10%	10%
23–25 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,102	32%	38%	16%	14%	6%
19–21 May	ICM/The Guardian	1,001	34%	38%	20%	8%	4%
8–9 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,910	31%	37%	17%	15%	6%
5–7 May	Populus/The Times	1,516	30%	38%	20%	11%	8%
4 May	2006 United Kingdom local elections
27 Apr-2 May	Ipsos MORI/Financial Times	1,078	32%	36%	21%	11%	4%
27–28 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,930	32%	35%	18%	15%	3%
21–23 Apr	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	32%	34%	24%	10%	2%
20–22 Apr	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,006	30%	30%	25%	15%	Tie
18–20 Apr	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,075	35%	33%	17%	15%	2%
31 Mar-2 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,503	36%	34%	21%	10%	2%
27–29 Mar	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,873	36%	36%	18%	10%	Tie
16–21 Mar	Ipsos MORI	1,155	39%	34%	19%	8%	5%
16–18 Mar	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,003	37%	33%	21%	9%	4%
16–17 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,811	35%	38%	19%	8%	3%
10–12 Mar	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	37%	34%	21%	8%	3%
3–5 Mar	Populus/The Times	1,509	35%	35%	20%	9%	Tie
2 Mar	Sir Menzies Campbell becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
21–22 Feb	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,019	36%	38%	18%	9%	2%
16–20 Feb	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,143	38%	35%	20%	7%	3%
17–19 Feb	ICM/The Guardian [ permanent dead link ]	1,002	34%	37%	21%	8%	3%
9–10 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,617	39%	37%	15%	10%	2%
9 Feb	Dunfermline and West Fife by-election
3–5 Feb	Populus/The Times	1,508	36%	37%	18%	9%	1%
24–26 Jan	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,096	40%	39%	13%	9%	1%
19–23 Jan	Ipsos MORI	1,163	38%	40%	17%	5%	2%
20–22 Jan	ICM/The Guardian	1,009	36%	37%	19%	7%	1%
12–17 Jan	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	541	39%	39%	15%	7%	Tie
6–8 Jan	Populus/The Times	1,509	39%	36%	16%	9%	3%

2005

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation / Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
15–18 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,004	36%	37%	21%	7%	1%
13–15 Dec	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,071	36%	38%	18%	8%	2%
9–12 Dec	MORI/The Observer	1,000	31%	40%	20%	9%	9%
9–11 Dec	Populus/The Times	1,521	38%	35%	19%	8%	3%
6–8 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,089	36%	37%	18%	8%	1%
7–8 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,003	35%	37%	21%	7%	2%
6 Dec	David Cameron becomes leader of the Conservative Party
5–6 Dec	YouGov/Sky News	1,612	36%	36%	18%	10%	Tie
22–24 Nov	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,616	37%	35%	20%	8%	2%
17–22 Nov	MORI	1,089	42%	32%	19%	7%	10%
18–20 Nov	ICM/The Guardian	1,013	38%	33%	19%	10%	5%
4–6 Nov	Populus/The Times	1,512	40%	32%	19%	9%	8%
2–3 Nov	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,010	39%	33%	21%	7%	6%
25–27 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,947	40%	32%	19%	9%	8%
20–25 Oct	MORI	1,904	40%	34%	21%	5%	6%
19–20 Oct	ICM/The Guardian [ permanent dead link ]	1,007	36%	33%	22%	8%	3%
7–9 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,509	40%	30%	21%	9%	10%
5–6 Oct	ICM/News of the World	1,015	38%	32%	22%	8%	5%
27–29 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,183	40%	32%	20%	9%	8%
22–26 Sep	MORI	1,132	39%	29%	25%	7%	10%
16–17 Sep	ICM/The Guardian	1,013	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
8–9 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,856	37%	32%	21%	10%	5%
2–4 Sep	Populus/The Times	1,506	37%	35%	20%	8%	2%
19–24 Aug	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	–	40%	33%	20%	7%	7%
11–15 Aug	MORI	1,191	39%	31%	24%	6%	8%
12–14 Aug	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	38%	31%	22%	9%	7%
26–28 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	–	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
22–24 July	Populus/The Times	1,506	40%	28%	22%	10%	12%
14–18 July	MORI/The Observer	1,227	41%	28%	25%	6%	13%
15–17 July	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	39%	31%	23%	7%	8%
28–30 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	3,717	38%	33%	20%	9%	5%
16–20 June	MORI	1,227	42%	29%	21%	8%	13%
17–19 June	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	38%	31%	23%	8%	7%
24–26 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	–	38%	31%	23%	8%	7%
19–23 May	MORI/Financial Times	1,274	37%	30%	26%	7%	7%
5 May	2005 general election	–	36.2%	33.2%	22.7%	7.9%	3%

See also

• Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
• Opinion polling for the 2005 United Kingdom general election
• 2009 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
• List of political parties in the United Kingdom

Notes

1. Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (7 October 2007). "Gordon Brown: Why I put off an early election". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
2. Sylvester, Rachel (22 April 2015). "What if... Gordon Brown had called an election in 2007?". Prospect Magazine. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
3. Wintour, Patrick (8 June 2009). "European elections: Labour suffers long, dark night of humiliation". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
4. Wyburn-Powell, Alun (11 June 2014). "The rise of multi-party politics heightens the chances of a perverse and unrepresentative outcome in next year's General Election" (PDF). Democratic Audit UK. London School of Economics . Retrieved 15 December 2020.
5. Predicting Results UK Polling Report
6. Baston, Lewis (18 April 2010). "Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077.
7. Barone, Michael (19 April 2010). "The Lib Dems surge in Britain". Washington Examiner.
8. Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
9. Wells, Anthony (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
10. Wells, Anthony (29 January 2010). "YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points". UK Polling Report.
11. Editorial (20 April 2010). "General election 2010: All change for new politics". The Guardian.
12. Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 6 May 2010
13. "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
14. "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
15. BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.

^P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

External links

• Ipsos Mori archive of all pollsters' polls
• British Polling Council
• Electoral Calculus
• UK Polling Report Election Guide
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• Latest polling results and seat projections from Angus Reid Public Opinion