Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election

Last updated

In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, which can be held no later than 7 May 2026.

Constituency vote

Polling for the next Holyrood election - constituency vote ScotlandC.svg
Polling for the next Holyrood election - constituency vote
Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
SNP Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform Others Lead
7 Dec 2024 Norstat The Times1,01337%14%21%10%5%12%3%16
1–15 Nov 2024 Survation Progress Scotland 3,01632%14%27%9%6%10%5
30 Oct1 Nov 2024 Norstat The Times1,01333%15%23%10%6%11%10
12 Oct 2024 Alex Salmond, former First Minister and leader of the Alba Party, dies
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation Progress Scotland2,05931%13%31%8%6%9%
2%
Alba on 1% Other on 1%
Tie
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium The Times1,02832%12%25%8%7%12%3%7
27–29 Aug 2024 Survation Scotland in Union1,02131%12%30%9%6%9%
1%
Alba on 1%
1
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,01133%12%30%8%5%9%2%3
4 Jul 2024 2024 United Kingdom general election
26–27 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,20033%14%34%8%3%6%
2%
Alba on 1%
Others on 1%
1
21–25 Jun 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,04237%14%35%8%5%2
21–25 Jun 2024 Survation Ballot Box Scotland1,02233%14%37%8%4%
4%
Alba on 1%
Others on 3%
4
14–18 Jun 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,06936%16%35%7%6%1
11–14 Jun 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,05034%16%32%8%6%5%2
3–7 Jun 2024 YouGov N/A1,06834%13%35%10%5%4%1
1–2 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00033%17%32%9%2%4%
2%
Alba on 2%
Others on 0%
1
8–9 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,07833%15%35%9%3%4%2
6–8 May John Swinney is elected Leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland
3–8 May 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,08035%18%35%6%5%Tie
30 Apr3 May 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,08634%14%33%9%5%5%1
26–29 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,04336%16%32%9%3%4%4
9–12 Apr 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,08635%17%30%10%5%4%5
6–7 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00034%21%32%6%2%3%
2%
Alba on 2%
2
25 Mar2 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,10034%15%32%9%4%5%2
10–11 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00035%18%31%5%3%4%
3%
Alba on 3%
4
3–4 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00035%18%33%8%3%3%
1%

Alba on 1%
2
25–31 Jan 2024 Ipsos STV News1,00539%14%30%7%4%1%
4%

Alba on 1%
9
23–25 Jan 2024 Survation True North1,02935%16%31%8%5%
5%
Alba on 2%
4
22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,00736%16%31%7%5%5%5
9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,04037%18%32%8%3%1%1%5
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos STV News1,00439%15%27%8%4%1%
5%
Alba on 3%
12
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,09234%22%30%8%2%2%
2%
Alba on 2%
4
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,20034%14%32%9%7%4%2
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,00237%18%33%6%5%4
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov Fabians1,02837%20%29%9%3%3%9
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,02235%16%31%7%7%3%4
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,09435%20%29%10%3%1%6
5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium Tony Blair Institute1,00442%20%26%8%5%16
8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times1.10341%16%28%8%3%4%13
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10039%16%30%8%3%
1%
Alba on 1%
9
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation True North1,02239%16%34%8%4%5
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov The Times1,08641%14%31%7%3%4%10
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05036%19%32%8%2%1%
1%
Alba on 1%
4
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,03033%21%30%10%2%2%
1%
Alba on 1%
3
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation N/A1,89138%17%33%10%3%5
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,00736%13%32%9%7%3%4
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,01840%16%33%8%3%7
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,20027%11%21%6%5%3%6
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,39536%21%29%8%2%2%
2%
Alba on 1%
7
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos STV News1,09042%17%28%7%4%
2%
Alba on 1%
14
27 Apr3 May 2023 Survation True North1,00939%19%30%9%4%9
30 Apr2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,29536%18%32%8%2%2%
1%
Alba on 1%
4
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times1,03238%16%30%10%2%4%8
29 Mar3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A1,00138%16%27%7%3%11
31 Mar1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00038%18%28%10%3%2%4%10
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,00939%19%32%7%3%7
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,08937%17%30%8%5%4%7
27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected as the leader of the SNP and then as First Minister of Scotland
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News1,00243%15%26%8%4%3%17
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop1,01339%14%31%8%6%2%8
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05040%20%29%7%2%2%1%11
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times1,01742%18%28%8%2%3%14
15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A1,03443%17%29%8%1%
2%
Alba on 1%
14
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman100843%17%30%8%2%13
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Election Study123939%17%28%8%5%3%11
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/A107043%17%29%7%4%14
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times1,08844%17%26%7%2%3%18
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North1,00246%17%27%8%2%19
22 Dec1 Jan 2023 Survation Scotland in Union1,02544%16%29%8%1%1%
1%
Alba on 1%
15
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman1,04844%18%28%8%3%16
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times1,09050%13%25%7%2%2%25
28 Nov5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News1,04550%14%24%7%3%3%26
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,23934%11%17%6%4%
2%
Others on 2%
'Would not vote' on 10%
'Don't know' on 15%
'Refused' on 1%
17
7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party1,01845%15%28%6%3%
3%
Alba on 3%
17
30 Sep4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times1,06749%13%26%8%4%23
30 Sep4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,02947%17%25%8%2%22
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union1,01145%14%30%6%4%15
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,13345%19%22%8%6%23
29 Jun1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,01047%17%22%9%3%2%25
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,02946%18%25%8%4%21
18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times1,11547%18%23%7%2%3%24
5 May 2022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr3 May 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,01046%18%25%7%4%21
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,00942%19%24%7%4%4%18
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG The Herald1,01244%21%22%8%4%22
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland1,00246%20%25%7%2%21
10–16 Mar 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,00846%20%24%7%3%22
24–28 Feb 2022 Savanta ComRes The Economist1,86647%21%22%8%2%25
1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,01444%19%22%8%3%3%22
14–18 Jan 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,00447%19%22%8%4%25
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI STV News1,10752%19%17%5%3%4%33
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times1,06048%21%19%7%2%3%27
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,78147%20%19%8%4%2%27
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,00548%20%22%7%3%26
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times2,00346%22%18%7%4%3%24
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,01648%22%20%7%3%26
2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News1,01451%21%18%6%4%30
20 Aug 2021Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,28746%24%19%6%3%2%22
6 May 2021 2021 Scottish Parliament election [1] 47.7%21.9%21.6%6.9%1.3%N/A0.6%25.8

Regional vote

Polling for the next Holyrood election - regional vote ScotlandListVote2026.svg
Polling for the next Holyrood election - regional vote
Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
SNP Con Lab Green Lib Dems Alba Reform Others Lead
17 Dec Norstat The Times1,01332%16%18%8%10%5%12%1%14
1–15 Nov 2024 Survation Progress Scotland 3,01627%15%25%10%9%3%11%2
30 Oct1 Nov 2024 Norstat The Times1,01329%14%22%9%9%3%11%7
12 Oct 2024 Alex Salmond, former First Minister and leader of the Alba Party, dies
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation Progress Scotland2,05928%14%26%10%10%3%10%1%2
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium The Times1,02830%12%25%8%8%12%4%5
27–29 Aug 2024 Survation Scotland in Union1,02127%12%28%10%10%2%9%0%1
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,01128%14%28%8%7%5%9%0%Tie
4 Jul 2024 2024 United Kingdom general election
26–27 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,20027%14%34%8%9%1%6%1%7
21–25 Jun 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,04231%17%29%9%9%4%2
21–25 Jun 2024 Survation Ballot Box Scotland1,02230%16%34%7%8%2%1%4
14–18 Jun 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,06929%16%29%12%10%5%Tie
11–14 Jun 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,05028%16%27%9%8%5%7%1%1
3–7 Jun 2024 YouGov N/A1,06829%14%29%11%9%2%5%2%Tie
1–2 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00031%15%28%7%9%4%6%
0%
3
8–9 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,07827%14%33%9%9%3%5%1%6
6–8 May John Swinney is elected Leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland
3–8 May 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,08026%18%32%11%10%4%6
30 Apr3 May 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,08627%17%28%9%8%4%6%1%1
26–29 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,04331%17%28%8%8%3%3%1%3
9–12 Apr 2024 Norstat Sunday Times1,08628%19%25%9%10%3%4%1%3
6–7 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00026%17%29%9%9%3%5%2%3
25 Mar2 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,10029%16%29%9%8%3%5%2%Tie
10–11 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00028%16%29%9%9%3%5%0%1
3–4 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00027%16%29%9%9%3%5%1%2
25-31 Jan 2024 Ipsos STV News1,00533%13%31%11%7%1%2%2%2
23–25 Jan 2024 Survation True North1,02931%16%29%9%8%3%0%2
22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,00730%19%29%9%7%3%2%1%1
9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,04025%17%30%11%10%3%4%1%5
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos STV News1,00433%15%26%10%8%4%1%2%7
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,09228%21%27%9%8%3%4%1%1
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,20030%14%30%11%8%4%3%2%Tie
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,00228%20%29%13%8%2%1
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov Fabians1,02828%19%28%11%7%3%2%1%Tie
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase Sunday Times1,02229%18%30%12%8%0%*
3%*
Alba on 0% Other on 2%
1
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,09426%19%25%12%12%3%2%1%1
5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium Tony Blair Institution1,00435%18%25%8%8%2%3%10
8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times1,10333%16%25%11%8%2%3%2%8
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,10025%15%30%14%9%4%3%1%5
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation True North1,02230%15%30%9%9%5%2%Tie
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov The Times1,08632%14%28%11%8%2%3%2%4
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05029%18%30%9%9%2%3%1%1
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,03029%19%26%8%12%2%4%1%3
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation N/A1,89130%18%29%10%9%2%2%1
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,00730%17%28%12%8%4%1%2
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,01828%18%28%13%11%3%Tie
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,20022%12%20%6%8%2%1%3%2
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,39525%18%25%13%10%3%3%0%Tie
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos STV News1,09035%17%27%12%5%2%1%1%8
27 Apr3 May 2023 Survation True North1,00932%19%26%10%7%3%2%1%6
30 Apr2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,29525%19%27%13%10%2%2%2%2
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times1,03230%17%26%12%9%2%2%3%4
29 Mar3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A1,00132%17%23%8%7%2%2%9
31 Mar1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00030%19%24%11%13%2%2%6
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,00933%18%30%10%7%2%3
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,08931%20%27%10%6%5%2%4
27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected as the leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News1,00235%16%25%11%8%2%3%1%10
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop1,01332%17%27%12%8%3%5
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05029%20%26%10%11%1%3%3
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times1,01735%18%27%9%7%2%2%0%8
15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A1,03435%18%27%8%8%2%1%0%8
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman100832%16%27%14%9%2%5
15 Feb 2023 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party.
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Election Study123933%17%28%11%7%1%3%2%5
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/A1,00733%17%25%12%7%2%3%8
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times1,08836%17%26%9%6%4%3%1%10
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North1,00233%18%25%12%8%2%2%8
22 Dec1 Jan 2023 Survation Scotland in Union1,02533%15%26%12%9%2%2%1%7
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman1,04832%18%24%13%10%2%8
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times1,09040%13%24%11%6%3%2%1%16
28 Nov5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News1,04543%14%21%13%6%1%2%18
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,23929%11%18%6%9%1%2%0%11
7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party1,01837%17%26%9%7%4%0%11
30 Sep4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times1,06738%14%24%12%8%1%1%1%14
30 Sep4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,02932%19%26%13%8%2%1%6
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union1,01131%14%27%14%9%1%2%1%4
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,13338%20%20%9%9%4%18
29 Jun1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,01041%19%22%7%8%3%19
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,02933%20%24%13%8%2%1%9
18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times1,11539%18%21%10%8%2%1%1%18
5 May 2022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr3 May 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,01031%18%23%14%10%1%*
4%*
Alba on 1% Other on 1%
8
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,00936%20%22%10%7%5%14
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG The Herald1,01233%20%22%10%8%3%4%11
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland1,00234%19%23%11%8%2%3%11
10–16 Mar 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,00834%20%22%13%8%2%1%12
24–28 Feb 2022 Savanta ComRes The Economist1,86634%21%20%14%8%2%1%13
1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,01438%21%20%9%8%5%17
14–18 Jan 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,00438%18%20%12%9%2%1%18
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI STV News1,10743%20%15%12%6%1%3%23
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times1,06038%19%19%11%7%1%5%19
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,78141%21%18%10%8%2%20
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,00538%22%20%11%7%1%1%16
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times2,00338%23%18%9%8%4%15
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,01636%23%18%13%7%2%1%13
2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News1,01440%21%16%8%5%10%19
20 Aug 2021Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,28738%23%17%9%6%6%15
6 May 2021 2021 Scottish Parliament election [1] 40.3%23.5%17.9%8.1%5.1%1.7%0.2%3.2%16.8

See also

Notes

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    Opinion polling for the 2019 general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Opinion polling about attitudes to the leaders of various political parties can be found in a separate article.

    At various dates in the run up to the 2019 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

    In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

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    Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The opinion polls listed range from the previous election on 12 December 2019 to the election on Thursday, 4 July 2024.

    Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

    This article collates polling conducted for various geographical regions, including polls of individual constituencies. Polling covering all of the UK or Great Britain are collated in the article Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

    References

    1. 1 2 "Full votes and seats by party etc - SPE21". Electoral Management Board for Scotland. 9 May 2021. Archived from the original on 2 August 2021. Retrieved 2 August 2021.