Opinion polling for the 2026 Portuguese presidential election

Last updated

In the run up to the 2026 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Graphical summary

Graph of the polling for the 2026 Portuguese presidential election. Opinion polls Portuguese presidential election 2026.jpg
Graph of the polling for the 2026 Portuguese presidential election.

Polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Gouveia e Melo
Oth/
Und
Lead
Ind. PSD PS CH IL BE CDU L Ind. ADN Ind.
Intercampus [1] [a] 12–16 Dec 202561113.419.114.521.115.47.24.44.92.0
ICS/ISCTE [2] 5–13 Dec 20259032020142210531232
CESOP–UCP [3] 4–12 Dec 20251,18518201622143320.51.52
Aximage [4] [b] 28 Nov–3 Dec 202560719.620.410.721.411.76.63.22.14.31.0
Consulmark2 [5] 19–28 Nov 202579516.622.016.916.415.92.62.50.86.35.1
Intercampus [6] [c] 14–19 Nov 202561119.420.513.919.914.45.44.72.00.6
Aximage [7] [d] 10–17 Nov 202581620.917.816.621.610.64.42.31.74.10.7
ICS/ISCTE [8] 7–17 Nov 202580726231425522<1<131
Pitagórica [9] 5–14 Nov 20251,00021.122.617.414.712.64.42.51.40.23.11.5
Aximage [10] 23–27 Oct 202565124.419.215.719.28.25.02.70.94.65.2
Intercampus [11] [e] 20–26 Oct 202560919.220.715.419.710.58.95.71.0
Pitagórica [12] 6–10 Oct 202562526.920.318.413.99.11.92.52.9
(RT)
0.20.43.5 [f] 6.6
Intercampus [13] 1–8 Oct 202580221.619.710.219.19.95.93.79.91.9
Intercampus [14] 7–14 Aug 202561118.516.013.714.18.74.72.022.3 [g] 2.5
ICS/ISCTE [15] 28 Jun–10 Aug 20252,0171913101345 [h] 6
Aximage [16] 11–21 Jul 20251,00026191441 [i] 7
2419134436 [j] 5
Intercampus [17] 11–18 Jul 202560620.617.216.510.66.83.6
(MM)
3.820.9 [k] 3.4
Intercampus [18] 5–15 Jun 202561627.318.511.08.41.8
(ML)
3.7
(MM)
2.4
(PR)
26.8 [l] 8.8
Consulmark2 [19] 6–13 May 202558927.716.55.47.51.7
(ML)
3.71.7
(PR)
2.233.7 [m] 11.2
Consulmark2 [20] 14–22 Apr 202556929.016.96.36.51.1
(ML)
3.91.1
(PR)
1.434.0 [n] 12.1
Consulmark2 [21] 27 Mar–3 Apr 202558336.917.28.14.50.9
(ML)
3.60.5
(PR)
0.927.6 [o] 19.7
CESOP–UCP [22] 17–26 Mar 20251,2063719793
(ML)
42
(PR)
19 [p] 18
Intercampus [23] 4–10 Mar 202563835.613.97.712.44.0
(ML)
26.2 [q] 21.7
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540035.925.514.112.92.5
(ML)
1.8
(JS)
0.60.36.4 [r] 10.4
32.224.812.12.2
(ML)
1.9
(JS)
0.70.225.9 [s] 7.4
Aximage [25] 23–28 Jan 2025800281181141 [t] 16
Intercampus [26] 21–26 Jan 202563833.114.18.39.44.93.0
(JF)
27.3 [u] 19.0
ICS/ISCTE [27] 9–20 Jan 2025805251315161
(IL)
1
(BE)
1
(PCP)
1
(L)
27 [v] 9
2513161
(IL)
2
(BE)
1
(PCP)
1
(L)
41 [w] 9
2413161
(IL)
2
(BE)
1
(PCP)
1
(L)
42 [x] 7
Polling before confirmed candidates, with several options
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
O/
U
Lead
Ind. PS PSD CDS PSD BE BE PS CH CDU CDU PS IL PSD PS PS PS Ind. L
Intercampus [28] 21–27 Nov 202460523.213.99.84.06.60.95.13.23.24.76.41.32.415.39.3
Aximage [29] 6–19 Sep 202481821.014.710.65.08.87.98.323.76.3
Intercampus [30] 19–26 Jul 20246099.414.14.68.18.411.41.55.74.819.34.62.45.7
[y]
5.2
Duplimétrica [31] 6–13 May 2024800101713572535135154
Intercampus [32] 18–23 Apr 20246058.414.712.52.75.75.97.71.35.32.72.913.62.91.33.59.01.1
Intercampus [33] 9–14 Sep 20236147.88.815.83.96.05.51.59.02.03.43.33.114.83.92.09.31.0
Intercampus [34] 3–6 Jul 20236237.914.313.33.23.06.91.411.40.85.93.215.12.72.61.96.30.8
Intercampus [35] 3–10 Feb 202360210.010.615.83.84.33.89.56.03.84.013.514.9
[z]
2.3
Intercampus [36]
[aa]
15–20 Nov 202260515.99.615.26.37.34.05.86.13.38.62.115.80.7
Intercampus [37] 6–11 Jul 202260531.710.910.47.87.86.13.022.320.8
18.317.412.712.24.534.90.9
31.113.616.27.84.027.414.9
23.116.512.912.44.530.66.6

Second round

Poll results showing how people would vote on hypothetical second round matchups, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Gouveia e Melo Marques Mendes Oth/
Und
Lead
Ind. PSD
Intercampus [1] 12–16 Dec 202561136.741.721.65.0
ICS/ISCTE [2] 5–13 Dec 20259033135344
CESOP–UCP [3] 4–12 Dec 20251,185425088
Consulmark2 [5] 19–28 Nov 202579534.046.020.012.0
Intercampus [6] 14–19 Nov 202561136.737.525.80.8
ICS/ISCTE [8] 7–17 Nov 20258073531344
Pitagórica [9] 5–14 Nov 20251,0003946157
Aximage [10] 23–27 Oct 20256513836262
Intercampus [11] 20–26 Oct 202560937.341.521.24.2
Pitagórica [12] 6–10 Oct 20256254237215
Intercampus [13] 1–8 Oct 202580240.639.320.11.3
Intercampus [14] 7–14 Aug 202561139.838.521.81.3
Aximage [16] 11–21 Jul 20251,0004136235
Intercampus [17] 11–18 Jul 202560640.439.620.00.8
Intercampus [18] 5–15 Jun 202561641.135.423.55.7
Intercampus [23] 4–10 Mar 202563851.628.519.923.1
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540049371412
Intercampus [26] 21–26 Jan 202563852.529.318.223.2
ICS/ISCTE [27] 9–20 Jan 202580543203723
Pitagórica [38] 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 202540051301921
Intercampus [28] 21–27 Nov 202460549.330.320.319.0
Aximage [29] 6–19 Sep 202481847282519
Intercampus [30] 19–26 Jul 202460948.840.211.08.6
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Gouveia e Melo Seguro Oth/
Und
Lead
Ind. PS
Intercampus [1] 12–16 Dec 202561137.338.524.21.2
ICS/ISCTE [2] 5–13 Dec 202590336263810
CESOP–UCP [3] 4–12 Dec 20251,185444975
Consulmark2 [5] 19–28 Nov 202579536.044.519.58.5
Intercampus [6] 14–19 Nov 202561137.234.728.12.5
ICS/ISCTE [8] 7–17 Nov 202580741243517
Pitagórica [9] 5–14 Nov 20251,0003943184
Aximage [10] 23–27 Oct 20256514035255
Intercampus [11] 20–26 Oct 202560942.038.919.13.1
Pitagórica [12] 6–10 Oct 20256254437197
Intercampus [13] 1–8 Oct 202580248.832.219.116.6
Intercampus [14] 7–14 Aug 202561142.234.723.17.5
Aximage [16] 11–21 Jul 20251,0004236226
Intercampus [17] 11–18 Jul 202560641.638.120.33.5
Intercampus [18] 5–15 Jun 202561644.532.323.212.2
Intercampus [23] 4–10 Mar 202563854.524.521.030.0
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540051321719
Intercampus [26] 21–26 Jan 202563855.224.919.930.3
ICS/ISCTE [27] 9–20 Jan 202580545163929
Pitagórica [38] 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 202540054262028
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Gouveia e Melo Ventura Oth/
Und
Lead
Ind. CH
Intercampus [1] 12–16 Dec 202561152.530.017.522.5
ICS/ISCTE [2] 5–13 Dec 202590347242923
CESOP–UCP [3] 4–12 Dec 20251,1856825743
Consulmark2 [5] 19–28 Nov 202579563.419.517.143.9
Intercampus [6] 14–19 Nov 202561154.025.720.328.3
ICS/ISCTE [8] 7–17 Nov 202580749232826
Pitagórica [9] 5–14 Nov 20251,00068181450
Aximage [10] 23–27 Oct 202565154252129
Intercampus [11] 20–26 Oct 202560961.229.49.431.8
Pitagórica [12] 6–10 Oct 202562563152248
Intercampus [13] 1–8 Oct 202580260.325.614.134.7
Intercampus [14] 7–14 Aug 202561156.625.917.530.7
Intercampus [17] 11–18 Jul 202560663.419.117.544.3
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540071131658
ICS/ISCTE [27] 9–20 Jan 202580553163129
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Marques Mendes Seguro Oth/
Und
Lead
PSD PS
Intercampus [1] 12–16 Dec 202561141.433.125.58.3
ICS/ISCTE [2] 5–13 Dec 202590337253812
CESOP–UCP [3] 4–12 Dec 20251,185484395
Consulmark2 [5] 19–28 Nov 202579543.635.720.77.9
Intercampus [6] 14–19 Nov 202561139.932.128.07.8
ICS/ISCTE [8] 7–17 Nov 202580736263810
Pitagórica [9] 5–14 Nov 20251,0004440164
Aximage [10] 23–27 Oct 2025651373726Tie
Intercampus [11] 20–26 Oct 202560943.233.523.39.7
Pitagórica [12] 6–10 Oct 20256254037233
Intercampus [13] 1–8 Oct 202580247.130.722.216.4
Intercampus [14] 7–14 Aug 202561141.932.126.09.8
Aximage [16] 11–21 Jul 20251,0003637271
Intercampus [17] 11–18 Jul 202560638.039.622.41.6
Intercampus [18] 5–15 Jun 202561641.230.028.711.2
Intercampus [23] 4–10 Mar 202563842.429.028.613.4
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540043322511
Intercampus [26] 21–26 Jan 202563844.528.826.715.7
Pitagórica [38] 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 20254004034266
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Marques Mendes Ventura Oth/
Und
Lead
PSD CH
Intercampus [1] 12–16 Dec 202561155.830.114.125.7
ICS/ISCTE [2] 5–13 Dec 202590349232826
CESOP–UCP [3] 4–12 Dec 20251,1856926543
Consulmark2 [5] 19–28 Nov 202579564.820.015.244.8
Intercampus [6] 14–19 Nov 202561154.727.717.627.0
ICS/ISCTE [8] 7–17 Nov 202580747242923
Pitagórica [9] 5–14 Nov 20251,00070191151
Aximage [10] 23–27 Oct 202565154252129
Intercampus [11] 20–26 Oct 202560960.829.69.631.2
Pitagórica [12] 6–10 Oct 202562562191943
Intercampus [13] 1–8 Oct 202580260.126.113.834.0
Intercampus [14] 7–14 Aug 202561157.126.516.430.6
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540065171848
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Seguro Ventura Oth/
Und
Lead
PS CH
Intercampus [1] 12–16 Dec 202561152.233.614.218.6
ICS/ISCTE [2] 5–13 Dec 202590345243121
CESOP–UCP [3] 4–12 Dec 20251,1856629537
Consulmark2 [5] 19–28 Nov 202579560.121.418.538.7
Intercampus [6] 14–19 Nov 202561153.028.518.524.5
ICS/ISCTE [8] 7–17 Nov 202580742253317
Pitagórica [9] 5–14 Nov 20251,00067211246
Aximage [10] 23–27 Oct 202565156261830
Intercampus [11] 20–26 Oct 202560958.529.911.628.6
Pitagórica [12] 6–10 Oct 202562561211840
Intercampus [13] 1–8 Oct 202580254.929.815.325.1
Intercampus [14] 7–14 Aug 202561152.029.518.522.5
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540065181747
Hypothetical polling
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
O/ULead
PS PS PS PS PS PS Ind. PSD PSD PSD CDS Ind. PSD CH
Intercampus [23] 4–10 Mar 202563821.657.129.318.1
26.344.421.335.5
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 202540030531723
31452414
62201842
Intercampus [26] 21–26 Jan 202563825.256.018.830.8
28.845.026.216.2
ICS/ISCTE [27] 9–20 Jan 202580516533137
23403717
Pitagórica [38] 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 202540036461810
27551828
32432511
34491715
32511719
4236226
4244142
50321818
Intercampus [28] 21–27 Nov 202460532.044.623.412.6
37.346.516.29.2
42.231.826.010.4
35.840.723.54.9
39.035.625.43.4
39.939.520.50.4
52.521.326.231.2
45.029.425.615.6
50.831.817.319.0
59.119.821.139.3
52.428.619.023.8
Aximage [29] 6–19 Sep 20248183433331
56222234
4335228
51282123
2938339
19483329
21542533
Intercampus [30] 19–26 Jul 202460956.733.210.123.5
55.634.99.520.7
58.034.77.323.3
66.121.712.244.4
66.822.610.644.2
69.219.411.449.8
36.752.710.716.0
33.455.011.621.6
42.448.88.86.4
48.337.813.910.5
49.936.913.213.0
52.533.214.319.3
40.246.813.06.6
37.148.414.511.3
48.441.110.57.3
56.527.016.529.5
56.029.414.626.6
57.825.916.331.9
51.937.610.514.3
63.723.912.439.8
61.127.311.633.8
68.119.812.148.3

Leadership polls

Approval ratings

Preferred candidate

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Right-wing

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
O/ULead
PSD PSD PSD CH CDS Ind. IL
Consulmark2 [20] 14–22 Apr 2025569 [ab] 54.128.817.025.3
Aximage [29] 6–19 Sep 2024818 [ab] 3937222
Aximage [39] 14–18 Sep 202380419.819.513.011.311.27.06.012.20.3

Left-wing

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
O/ULead
PS PS PS PS PS PS PS PS BE CDU
Intercampus [18] 5–15 Jun 2025616 [ac] 25.815.312.58.138.310.5
Consulmark2 [20] 14–22 Apr 2025569 [ac] 41.729.528.812.2
Pitagórica [24] 23–27 Feb 2025400 [ac] 564412
Intercampus [26] 21–26 Jan 2025638 [ac] 24.921.314.47.132.33.6
Aximage [29] 6–19 Sep 2024818 [ac] 1441182723
Aximage [39] 14–18 Sep 20238043419128695715

Notes

  1. Results presented here exclude undecideds (11.6%). With their inclusion results are: André Ventura: 18.7%; Marques Mendes: 16.9%; Cotrim Figueiredo: 13.6%; António José Seguro: 12.8%; Gouveia e Melo: 11.9%; Catarina Martins: 7.2%; Jorge Pinto: 4.3%; António Filipe: 3.9%.
  2. Results presented here exclude undecideds (10.6%). With their inclusion results are: André Ventura: 19.1%; Marques Mendes: 18.2%; Gouveia e Melo: 17.5%; Cotrim Figueiredo: 10.5%; António José Seguro: 9.6%; Catarina Martins: 5.9%; António Filipe: 2.9%; Jorge Pinto: 1.9%; Others/Invalid: 3.8%.
  3. Results presented here exclude undecideds (20.0%). With their inclusion results are: Marques Mendes: 16.4%; André Ventura: 15.9%; Gouveia e Melo: 15.5%; Cotrim Figueiredo: 11.5%; António José Seguro: 11.1%; Catarina Martins: 4.3%; António Filipe: 3.8%; Jorge Pinto: 1.6%.
  4. Results presented here exclude undecideds (10.6%). With their inclusion results are: André Ventura: 19.4%; Gouveia e Melo: 18.7%; Marques Mendes: 15.9%; António José Seguro: 14.8%; Cotrim Figueiredo: 9.5%; Catarina Martins: 3.9%; António Filipe: 2.1%; Jorge Pinto: 1.5%; Others/Invalid: 3.6%.
  5. Results presented here exclude undecideds (19.9%). With their inclusion results are: Marques Mendes: 16.6%; André Ventura: 15.8%; Gouveia e Melo: 15.4%; António José Seguro: 12.3%; Cotrim Figueiredo: 8.4%; Catarina Martins: 7.1%; António Filipe: 4.6%.
  6. Pedro Tinoco de Faria - 0.4%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 3.1%.
  7. Rui Moreira – 3.3%; Others/Neither/Would not vote – 19.0%.
  8. Others - 6%; Would not vote - 12%; Invalid/Blank - 4%; Undecided - 24%.
  9. Other candidates - 12%; Undecided - 29%.
  10. António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 6%; Other candidates - 6%; Undecided - 24%.
  11. António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 4.1%; Undecided - 16.8%.
  12. António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 3.6%; Undecided - 23.3%.
  13. António Vitorino - 6.1%; Paulo Portas - 3.9%; Tim Vieira - 0.2%; Undecided: 15.1%; Abstention: 2.4%; Refused to answer: 2.7%; Blank/Invalid: 1.9%; Other: 1.4%.
  14. António Vitorino - 5.6%; Paulo Portas - 5.6%; Tim Vieira - 0.7%; Undecided: 13.9%; Abstention: 2.3%; Refused to answer: 1.6%; Blank/Invalid: 3.2%; Other: 1.1%.
  15. Paulo Portas - 5.8%; Tim Vieira - 0.2%; Undecided: 13.7%; Abstention: 1.0%; Refused to answer: 1.4%; Blank/Invalid: 3.8%; Other: 1.7%.
  16. António Vitorino - 7%; António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 3%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 9%.
  17. António Vitorino – 5.6%; Others/Neither/Would not vote – 20.6%.
  18. António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 4.9%; Inês Sousa Real - 0.9%; Tim Vieira - 0.6%.
  19. António Vitorino - 20.7%; António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 3.8%; Inês Sousa Real - 0.7%; Tim Vieira - 0.6%.
  20. António Vitorino - 12%; Durão Barroso- 9%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 20%.
  21. António Vitorino - 8.6%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 18.7%.
  22. Other Independent candidate – 1%; CDS candidate – 0%; PAN candidate – 0%; Neither/Would not vote - 25%.
  23. António Vitorino - 14%; Other Independent candidate – 1%; CDS candidate – 0%; PAN candidate – 0%; Neither/Would not vote - 25%.
  24. Mário Centeno - 17%; Other Independent candidate – 1%; CDS candidate – 0%; PAN candidate – 0%; Neither/Would not vote - 24%.
  25. Leonor Beleza - 0.9%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 4.8%.
  26. Rui Moreira- 4.7%; Francisco Assis - 0.5%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 9.7%.
  27. Voters were asked which candidate they prefer.
  28. 1 2 Which candidate should the Social Democratic Party (PSD) support?
  29. 1 2 3 4 5 Which candidate should the Socialist Party (PS) support?

References

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