Opinion polling for the 2026 Portuguese presidential election

Last updated

In the run up to the 2026 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Gouveia e Melo
Oth/
Und		Lead
Ind. PSD PS CH IL BE CDU CDS Ind. ADN
Intercampus [1] 7–14 Aug 202561118.516.013.714.18.74.72.0———22.3 [a] 2.5
ICS/ISCTE [2] 28 Jun–10 Aug 20252,01719131013——————45 [b] 6
Aximage [3] 11–21 Jul 20251,000261914———————41 [c] 7
241913———4——436 [d] 5
Intercampus [4] 11–18 Jul 202560620.617.216.510.66.83.6
(MM)		3.8———20.9 [e] 3.4
Intercampus [5] 5–15 Jun 202561627.318.511.08.41.8
(ML)		3.7
(MM)		2.4
(PR)		———26.8 [f] 8.8
Consulmark2 [6] 6–13 May 202558927.716.55.47.51.7
(ML)		3.71.7
(PR)		3.9—2.229.8 [g] 11.2
Consulmark2 [7] 14–22 Apr 202556929.016.96.36.51.1
(ML)		3.91.1
(PR)		5.6—1.428.4 [h] 12.1
Consulmark2 [8] 27 Mar–3 Apr 202558336.917.28.14.50.9
(ML)		3.60.5
(PR)		5.8—0.921.8 [i] 19.7
CESOP–UCP [9] 17–26 Mar 20251,2063719793
(ML)		42
(PR)		———19 [j] 18
Intercampus [10] 4–10 Mar 202563835.613.97.712.44.0
(ML)		—————26.2 [k] 21.7
Pitagórica [11] 23–27 Feb 202540035.925.514.112.92.5
(ML)		—1.8
(JS)		—0.60.36.4 [l] 10.4
32.224.8—12.12.2
(ML)		—1.9
(JS)		—0.70.225.9 [m] 7.4
Aximage [12] 23–28 Jan 20258002811811——————41 [n] 16
Intercampus [13] 21–26 Jan 202563833.114.18.39.4—4.93.0
(JF)		———27.3 [o] 19.0
ICS/ISCTE [14] 9–20 Jan 2025805251315161
(IL)		1
(BE)		1
(PCP)		0
(CDS)		——28 [p] 9
2513—161
(IL)		2
(BE)		1
(PCP)		0
(CDS)		——42 [q] 9
2413—161
(IL)		2
(BE)		1
(PCP)		0
(CDS)		——43 [r] 7
Polling before confirmed candidates, with several options
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		O/
U		Lead
Ind. PS PSD CDS PSD BE BE PS CH CDU CDU PS IL PSD PS PS PS Ind. L
Intercampus [15] 21–27 Nov 202460523.2—13.9—9.8—4.0—6.6—0.95.13.23.2—4.76.41.32.415.39.3
Aximage [16] 6–19 Sep 202481821.0—14.7—10.6——5.08.8——7.9————8.3——23.76.3
Intercampus [17] 19–26 Jul 20246099.4—14.14.68.18.4——11.4—1.55.74.8—19.3—4.62.4—5.7
[s] 		5.2
Duplimétrica [18] 6–13 May 202480010171357—2—5——3—513—5——154
Intercampus [19] 18–23 Apr 20246058.414.712.52.75.7—5.9—7.7—1.35.32.72.913.6—2.91.33.59.01.1
Intercampus [20] 9–14 Sep 20236147.88.815.83.96.0—5.51.59.0—2.03.43.33.114.8—3.92.0—9.31.0
Intercampus [21] 3–6 Jul 20236237.914.313.33.23.0—6.91.411.4—0.85.93.2—15.12.72.61.9—6.30.8
Intercampus [22] 3–10 Feb 202360210.010.615.8—3.84.3—3.89.5——6.03.84.013.5————14.9
[t] 		2.3
Intercampus [23]
[u] 		15–20 Nov 202260515.99.615.26.37.34.0—5.86.13.3—8.62.1——————15.80.7
Intercampus [24] 6–11 Jul 202260531.7——10.910.47.8—7.86.13.0—————————22.320.8
———18.317.412.7—12.2—4.5—————————34.90.9
—31.1—13.616.27.8———4.0—————————27.414.9
——23.1—16.512.9—12.4—4.5—————————30.66.6

Second round

Poll results showing how people would vote on hypothetical second round matchups, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		Oth/
Und		Lead
Ind. PSD PS CH
Intercampus [1] 7–14 Aug 202561139.838.5——21.81.3
42.2—34.7—23.17.5
56.6——25.917.530.7
—41.932.1—26.09.8
—57.1—26.516.430.6
——52.029.518.522.5
Aximage [3] 11–21 Jul 20251,0004136——235
42—36—226
—3637—271
Intercampus [4] 11–18 Jul 202560640.439.6——20.00.8
41.6—38.1—20.33.5
63.4——19.117.544.3
—38.039.6—22.41.6
Intercampus [5] 5–15 Jun 202561641.135.4——23.55.7
44.5—32.3—23.212.2
—41.230.0—28.711.2
Intercampus [10] 4–10 Mar 202563851.628.5——19.923.1
54.5—24.5—21.030.0
—42.429.0—28.613.4
Pitagórica [11] 23–27 Feb 20254004937——1412
51—32—1719
71——131658
—4332—2511
—65—171848
——65181747
Intercampus [13] 21–26 Jan 202563852.529.3——18.223.2
55.2—24.9—19.930.3
—44.528.8—26.715.7
ICS/ISCTE [14] 9–20 Jan 20258054320——3723
45—16—3929
53——163137
Pitagórica [25] 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 20254005130——1921
54—26—2028
—4034—266
Intercampus [15] 21–27 Nov 202460549.330.3——20.319.0
Aximage [16] 6–19 Sep 20248184728——2519
Intercampus [17] 19–26 Jul 202460948.840.2——11.08.6
Hypothetical polling
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		O/ULead
PS PS PS PS PS PS Ind. PSD PSD PSD CDS Ind. PSD CH
Intercampus [10] 4–10 Mar 2025638—21.6————57.1———————29.318.1
—26.3—————44.4——————21.335.5
Pitagórica [11] 23–27 Feb 2025400—30————53———————1723
—31—————45——————2414
—62———————————201842
Intercampus [13] 21–26 Jan 2025638—25.2————56.0———————18.830.8
—28.8—————45.0——————26.216.2
ICS/ISCTE [14] 9–20 Jan 2025805—16————53———————3137
—————2340———————3717
Pitagórica [25] 28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 202540036———————46—————1810
—27————55———————1828
—32—————43——————2511
—34——————49—————1715
—————3251———————1719
—————42—36——————226
—————42——44—————142
——————50—32—————1818
Intercampus [15] 21–27 Nov 2024605————32.0——44.6——————23.412.6
————37.3———46.5—————16.29.2
————42.2——————31.8——26.010.4
————35.8———————40.7—23.54.9
—————39.0—35.6——————25.43.4
—————39.9——39.5—————20.50.4
—————52.5—————21.3——26.231.2
—————45.0——————29.4—25.615.6
——————50.8—31.8—————17.319.0
——————59.1————19.8——21.139.3
——————52.4—————28.6—19.023.8
Aximage [16] 6–19 Sep 2024818—————34—33——————331
—————56———————222234
—————43——35—————228
——————51—28—————2123
—————2938———————339
——19———48———————3329
————21—54———————2533
Intercampus [17] 19–26 Jul 2024609———56.7——33.2———————10.123.5
———55.6———34.9——————9.520.7
———58.0————34.7—————7.323.3
———66.1—————21.7————12.244.4
———66.8——————22.6———10.644.2
———69.2———————19.4——11.449.8
————36.7—52.7———————10.716.0
————33.4——55.0——————11.621.6
————42.4———48.8—————8.86.4
————48.3————37.8————13.910.5
————49.9—————36.9———13.213.0
————52.5——————33.2——14.319.3
—————40.246.8———————13.06.6
—————37.1—48.4——————14.511.3
—————48.4——41.1—————10.57.3
—————56.5———27.0————16.529.5
—————56.0————29.4———14.626.6
—————57.8—————25.9——16.331.9
——————51.9—37.6—————10.514.3
——————63.7——23.9————12.439.8
——————61.1———27.3———11.633.8
——————68.1————19.8——12.148.3

Leadership polls

Approval ratings

Preferred candidate

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Right-wing

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		O/ULead
PSD PSD PSD CH CDS Ind. IL
Consulmark2 [7] 14–22 Apr 2025569 [v] 54.1———28.8——17.025.3
Aximage [16] 6–19 Sep 2024818 [v] 3937—————222
Aximage [26] 14–18 Sep 202380419.819.513.011.311.27.06.012.20.3

Left-wing

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		O/ULead
PS PS PS PS PS PS PS PS BE CDU
Intercampus [5] 5–15 Jun 2025616 [w] —25.815.312.5——8.1———38.310.5
Consulmark2 [7] 14–22 Apr 2025569 [w] —41.729.5———————28.812.2
Pitagórica [11] 23–27 Feb 2025400 [w] —5644————————12
Intercampus [13] 21–26 Jan 2025638 [w] —24.921.314.4—7.1————32.33.6
Aximage [16] 6–19 Sep 2024818 [w] ———1441—18———2723
Aximage [26] 14–18 Sep 202380434——1912—8695715

Notes

  1. ↑ Rui Moreira – 3.3%; Others/Neither/Would not vote – 19.0%.
  2. ↑ Others - 6%; Would not vote - 12%; Invalid/Blank - 4%; Undecided - 24%.
  3. ↑ Other candidates - 12%; Undecided - 29%.
  4. ↑ António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 6%; Other candidates - 6%; Undecided - 24%.
  5. ↑ António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 4.1%; Undecided - 16.8%.
  6. ↑ António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 3.6%; Undecided - 23.3%.
  7. ↑ António Vitorino - 6.1%; Tim Vieira - 0.2%; Undecided: 15.1%; Abstention: 2.4%; Refused to answer: 2.7%; Blank/Invalid: 1.9%; Other: 1.4%.
  8. ↑ António Vitorino - 5.6%; Tim Vieira - 0.7%; Undecided: 13.9%; Abstention: 2.3%; Refused to answer: 1.6%; Blank/Invalid: 3.2%; Other: 1.1%.
  9. ↑ Tim Vieira - 0.2%; Undecided: 13.7%; Abstention: 1.0%; Refused to answer: 1.4%; Blank/Invalid: 3.8%; Other: 1.7%.
  10. ↑ António Vitorino - 7%; António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 3%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 9%.
  11. ↑ António Vitorino – 5.6%; Others/Neither/Would not vote – 20.6%.
  12. ↑ António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 4.9%; Inês Sousa Real - 0.9%; Tim Vieira - 0.6%.
  13. ↑ António Vitorino - 20.7%; António Sampaio da Nóvoa - 3.8%; Inês Sousa Real - 0.7%; Tim Vieira - 0.6%.
  14. ↑ António Vitorino - 12%; Durão Barroso- 9%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 20%.
  15. ↑ António Vitorino - 8.6%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 18.7%.
  16. ↑ LIVRE candidate – 1%; Other Independent candidate – 1%; PAN candidate – 0%; Neither/Would not vote - 25%.
  17. ↑ António Vitorino - 14%; LIVRE candidate – 1%; Other Independent candidate – 1%; PAN candidate – 0%; Neither/Would not vote - 25%.
  18. ↑ Mário Centeno - 17%; LIVRE candidate – 1%; Other Independent candidate – 1%; PAN candidate – 0%; Neither/Would not vote - 24%.
  19. ↑ Leonor Beleza - 0.9%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 4.8%.
  20. ↑ Rui Moreira- 4.7%; Francisco Assis - 0.5%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 9.7%.
  21. ↑ Voters were asked which candidate they prefer.
  22. 1 2 Which candidate should the Social Democratic Party (PSD) support?
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 Which candidate should the Socialist Party (PS) support?

References

  1. 1 2 "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 69". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in European Portuguese). 2025-08-18. Retrieved 2025-09-03.
  2. ↑ "Gouveia e Melo vai buscar votos até ao Bloco; Mendes, Ventura e Seguro dependem dos fiéis". Expresso (in Portuguese). 2025-09-04. Retrieved 2025-09-06.
  3. 1 2 "Sondagem sobre Eleições Presidenciais - julho 2025". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-07-23. Retrieved 2025-08-06.
  4. 1 2 "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 68". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in European Portuguese). 2025-07-21. Retrieved 2025-08-06.
  5. 1 2 3 "Sondagem para eleição para Presidente da República". Correio da Manhã (in Portuguese). 2025-06-20. Retrieved 2025-06-20.
  6. ↑ Pinto, Nuno Tiago (2025-05-16). "Sondagem. AD aumenta vantagem sobre o PS". Jornal SOL (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2025-05-16.
  7. 1 2 3 Pinto, Nuno Tiago (2025-04-24). "Sondagem. AD lidera. Maioria com Iniciativa Liberal mais perto". Jornal SOL (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2025-04-24.
  8. ↑ "Sondagem para Jornal Nascer do Sol – Vaga 2 (2025)". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-04-04. Retrieved 2025-04-19.
  9. ↑ "CESOP Sondagem política Sondagem de março de 2025". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-04-03. Retrieved 2025-04-19.
  10. 1 2 3 "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 62". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-03-11.
  11. 1 2 3 4 "BARÓMETRO TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF, JN e O Jogo". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-03-06.
  12. ↑ "Atualidade Política Sondagem Aximage Janeiro 2025". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-02-01.
  13. 1 2 3 4 "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 61". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-01-29.
  14. 1 2 3 "Sondagem ICS/ISCTE Janeiro 2025". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-01-29.
  15. 1 2 3 "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 60". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2024-10-29.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 "Sondagem Aximage Presidenciais 2026 Setembro 2024". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2024-09-23.
  17. 1 2 3 "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 57". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2024-07-29.
  18. ↑ "SONDAGEM SOBRE ELEIÇÕES EUROPEIAS - PORTUGAL". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2024-05-19.
  19. ↑ "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 54". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2024-04-24.
  20. ↑ "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 47". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2023-09-20.
  21. ↑ "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 45". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2023-07-07.
  22. ↑ "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 41". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2023-02-15.
  23. ↑ "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 38". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2022-11-23.
  24. ↑ "Barómetro CMTV, Vaga 34". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2022-07-13.
  25. 1 2 "Barómetro TVI / CNN Portugal /JN/ TSF / O Jogo - Janeiro 2025". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2025-01-07.
  26. 1 2 "Sondagem aximage: Candidatos às eleições presidenciais - setembro 2023". ERC - Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social (in Portuguese). 2023-07-20.
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