Opinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2009 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 20 February 2005, to the day the next election was held, on 27 September 2009.

Nationwide polling

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date						O	Lead
2009 legislative election	27 Sep 2009	36.6 97	29.1 81	7.9 15	10.4 21	9.8 16	6.2 0	7.5
Eurosondagem	27 Sep 2009 (21:00)	35.4– 37.6 94/102	27.1– 28.9 74/78	7.4– 9.2 15	9.2– 11.2 18/20	9.7– 11.5 17/21	–	8.3– 8.7
Eurosondagem	27 Sep 2009 (20:00)	36.2– 40.4 99/103	26.9– 30.7 74/77	6.5– 8.7 13/15	7.7– 9.9 15/17	9.0– 11.2 18/20	–	9.3– 9.7
Intercampus	27 Sep 2009	36.0– 40.0 97/111	26.3– 30.3 69/80	6.0– 9.0 10/15	8.6– 11.6 16/22	8.5– 11.5 18/22	4.6– 7.6 0	9.7
CESOP–UCP	27 Sep 2009	36–40 102/106	25–29 69/73	7–10 14/16	8.5– 11.5 18/21	9–12 20/23	–	11
Aximage	21–24 Sep 2009	38.8	29.1	8.4	8.6	10.0	5.1	9.7
Intercampus	21–23 Sep 2009	38.0	29.9	8.4	7.7	9.4	6.6	8.1
CESOP–UCP	17–22 Sep 2009	38 100	30 80	7 13	8 15	11 22	6 0	8
Marktest	18–21 Sep 2009	40.0	31.6	7.2	8.2	9.0	4.0	8.4
Aximage	14–17 Sep 2009	36.1	29.7	7.5	7.6	10.0	9.1	6.4
Eurosondagem	13–16 Sep 2009	34.9 88/96	31.6 80/87	8.4 15	8.4 15/17	9.6 18/20	7.1 0/1	3.3
Intercampus	12–15 Sep 2009	32.9	29.7	9.2	7.0	12.0	9.2	3.2
CESOP–UCP	11–14 Sep 2009	38	32	7	7	12	4	6
Eurosondagem	6–9 Sep 2009	33.6 84/90	32.5 84/90	9.4 16/19	8.0 14/16	9.6 18/20	6.9 0/1	1.1
CESOP–UCP	4–8 Sep 2009	37	35	8	6	11	3	2
Marktest	4–7 Sep 2009	35.3	32.4	6.9	5.2	16.2	4.0	2.9
Aximage	1–4 Sep 2009	34.5	28.9	7.8	8.1	10.4	10.3	5.6
Eurosondagem	23–28 Jul 2009	33.0	31.1	9.4	8.5	10.0	8.0	1.9
Marktest	14–18 Jul 2009	35.5	34.2	7.4	4.4	14.3	4.2	1.3
Aximage	1–6 Jul 2009	30.5	30.3	9.5	6.1	13.3	10.3	0.2
Eurosondagem	25–30 Jun 2009	35.1	33.0	9.7	7.4	9.6	5.2	2.1
Marktest	16–20 Jun 2009	34.5	35.8	7.7	4.4	13.1	4.5	1.3
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	26.5 (75)	31.7 (95)	10.6 (24)	8.4 (15)	10.7 (20)	12.1 (1)	5.2
Intercampus	7 Jun 2009	36.9	31.2	10.3	6.4	13.1	2.1	5.7
Aximage	1–4 Jun 2009	35.3	29.8	9.0	6.5	11.5	7.9	5.5
Eurosondagem	28 May–2 Jun 2009	39.6	33.0	7.9	5.6	9.1	4.8	6.6
Marktest	20–22 May 2009	36.3	28.3	9.4	7.1	14.7	4.2	8.0
Aximage	5–7 May 2009	37.3	26.7	8.5	5.2	12.6	9.7	10.6
Eurosondagem	30 Apr–5 May 2009	38.8	30.5	9.2	6.9	9.8	4.8	8.3
CESOP–UCP	25–26 Apr 2009	41	34	7	2	12	4	7
Marktest	14–19 Apr 2009	36.2	26.4	11.2	8.3	13.6	4.3	9.8
Aximage	1–3 Apr 2009	38.1	25.1	10.3	5.7	12.6	8.2	13.0
Eurosondagem	25–31 Mar 2009	39.6	29.6	9.4	7.0	9.6	4.8	10.0
Marktest	17–21 Mar 2009	36.7	28.4	8.9	9.4	12.6	4.0	8.3
Aximage	2–5 Mar 2009	38.3	24.0	9.0	6.8	12.6	9.3	14.3
Eurosondagem	26 Feb–3 Mar 2009	39.0	28.3	9.6	7.7	10.4	5.0	10.7
Marktest	17–22 Feb 2009	38.2	28.8	10.6	4.1	14.0	4.3	9.4
Aximage	2–5 Feb 2009	38.2	23.8	9.2	7.7	12.0	9.1	14.4
Eurosondagem	28 Jan–3 Feb 2009	40.3	29.1	8.8	6.9	10.1	4.8	11.2
Marktest	20–23 Jan 2009	39.6	24.9	11.9	9.7	10.1	3.8	14.7
Eurosondagem	7–13 Jan 2009	41.1	30.1	8.3	6.1	9.6	4.8	11.0
Aximage [ permanent dead link ]	6–9 Jan 2009	37.3	23.3	8.1	7.7	11.4	12.2	14.0
Marktest	16–19 Dec 2008	39.9	25.7	11.0	8.0	11.6	3.8	14.2
CESOP–UCP	13–14 Dec 2008	41	30	10	4	9	6	11
Aximage	3–5 Dec 2008	37.9	25.9	8.4	6.2	9.5	12.1	12.0
Eurosondagem	27 Nov–2 Dec 2008	42.5	30.0	8.4	6.0	8.7	4.4	12.5
Marktest	18–21 Nov 2008	40.1	26.4	10.0	6.2	13.1	4.2	13.7
Eurosondagem	5 Nov 2008	41.8	32.1	8.5	5.2	8.4	4.0	9.7
Aximage	3–5 Nov 2008	38.6	26.1	9.0	4.7	9.1	12.5	12.5
Marktest	21–24 Oct 2008	39.8	28.7	10.0	6.4	11.4	3.7	11.1
Intercampus	17–21 Oct 2008	43.9	28.9	10.2	4.0	12.3	0.8	15.0
Aximage	6–8 Oct 2008	38.0	28.5	9.2	3.8	9.3	11.2	9.5
CESOP–UCP	4–5 Oct 2008	41	34	8	2	8	7	7
Eurosondagem	25–30 Sep 2008	40.2	33.3	9.9	4.8	7.7	4.1	6.9
Marktest	16–20 Sep 2008	36.1	29.3	12.6	7.1	10.9	4.0	6.8
Aximage	8–10 Sep 2008	35.7	28.9	10.4	3.8	9.3	11.9	6.8
Eurosondagem	27 Aug–2 Sep 2008	39.0	33.0	10.1	5.0	8.4	4.5	6.0
Aximage	28–29 Jul 2008	33.1	31.1	9.1	4.4	9.4	12.9	2.0
Eurosondagem	23–29 Jul 2008	39.6	32.0	10.0	5.5	8.1	4.8	7.6
Marktest	15–18 Jul 2008	36.7	32.7	10.0	5.1	11.4	4.1	4.0
CESOP–UCP	5–9 Jul 2008	40	32	10	3	7	8	8
Aximage [ permanent dead link ]	1–4 Jul 2008	32.5	32.0	9.7	4.3	8.2	13.3	0.5
Eurosondagem	26 Jun–1 Jul 2008	40.0	29.0	10.1	6.0	9.6	5.3	11.0
Marktest	17–21 Jun 2008	35.2	30.8	11.1	6.7	12.3	3.9	4.4
Eurosondagem	28 May–3 Jun 2008	41.8	25.0	11.0	6.9	10.0	5.3	16.8
Marktest	19–26 May 2008	33.0	32.0	12.8	6.7	11.3	4.2	1.0
Aximage [ permanent dead link ]	7–8 May 2008	36.5	29.0	–	–	–	34.5	7.5
Eurosondagem	23–29 Apr 2008	43.2	26.9	10.0	6.3	8.8	4.8	16.3
Marktest	15–18 Apr 2008	38.0	31.5	10.8	4.3	11.5	3.9	6.5
Aximage	2–4 Apr 2008	35.7	26.0	8.9	5.1	10.2	14.1	9.7
Eurosondagem	27 Mar–1 Apr 2008	42.1	29.4	9.6	6.0	8.4	4.5	12.7
Marktest	17–20 Mar 2008	37.8	31.9	12.1	4.0	10.4	3.8	5.9
Aximage	3–5 Mar 2008	33.8	28.4	9.2	4.5	8.5	15.6	5.4
Eurosondagem	20–26 Feb 2008	43.2	31.2	8.3	5.8	7.2	4.3	12.0
CESOP–UCP	23–24 Feb 2008	39	32	9	3	8	9	7
Marktest	19–21 Feb 2008	36.1	33.4	12.8	5.6	8.0	4.1	2.7
Aximage	1–4 Feb 2008	35.8	30.0	8.2	4.6	7.2	14.2	5.8
Eurosondagem	24–28 Jan 2008	42.5	33.0	8.0	6.3	6.9	3.3	9.5
Marktest	15–18 Jan 2008	38.1	33.5	9.9	6.3	8.4	3.8	4.6
Aximage [ permanent dead link ]	7–9 Jan 2008	35.2	31.8	9.1	4.6	6.6	12.7	3.4
Eurosondagem	2–8 Jan 2008	43.3	32.5	8.0	6.0	6.6	3.6	10.8
Marktest	18–21 Dec 2007	41.0	32.5	9.5	5.4	7.8	3.8	8.5
Aximage	5–7 Dec 2007	37.0	29.2	8.5	4.4	6.7	14.2	7.8
Eurosondagem	28 Nov–4 Dec 2007	44.2	32.1	8.6	5.9	6.3	2.9	12.1
Marktest	20–23 Nov 2007	43.8	31.5	9.0	4.5	7.1	4.1	12.3
Aximage	7–9 Nov 2007	36.1	27.8	8.1	3.8	6.6	17.6	8.3
Eurosondagem	24–30 Oct 2007	45.5	31.5	8.8	5.0	5.9	3.3	14.0
CESOP–UCP	20–21 Oct 2007	41	35	9	6	4	5	6
Marktest	16–19 Oct 2007	36.9	35.9	12.3	2.9	8.1	3.9	1.0
Eurosondagem	2 Oct 2007	45.4	28.9	10.1	5.2	5.9	4.5	16.5
Aximage	1–2 Oct 2007	34.8	27.3	9.0	3.1	6.8	19.0	7.5
Marktest	18–21 Sep 2007	41.5	27.6	10.8	8.4	7.5	4.2	13.9
Aximage	3–4 Sep 2007	34.6	28.3	11.1	3.8	5.7	16.5	6.3
Eurosondagem	22–28 Aug 2007	45.2	30.3	9.2	5.0	5.5	4.8	14.9
Marktest	14–17 Aug 2007	42.7	28.3	9.4	7.2	8.5	3.9	14.4
Eurosondagem	7 Aug 2007	43.5	33.0	7.7	4.8	6.9	4.1	10.5
Aximage	21–22 Jul 2007	38.5	28.2	10.2	4.3	5.8	13.0	10.3
Marktest	17–20 Jul 2007	43.9	29.0	8.0	6.0	9.0	4.1	14.9
Aximage	4–6 Jul 2007	40.4	26.9	–	–	–	32.7	13.5
Marktest	19–22 Jun 2007	40.4	29.3	10.0	7.4	8.7	4.2	11.1
Aximage	5–7 Jun 2007	38.5	26.2				35.3	12.3
Eurosondagem	24–29 May 2007	44.6	33.4	7.7	4.0	6.6	3.7	11.2
Marktest	15–18 May 2007	46.8	27.3	8.4	5.6	8.2	3.7	19.5
Aximage	30 Apr–4 May 2007	36.7	26.7	7.6	6.0	7.0	16.0	10.0
Eurosondagem	26 Apr–2 May 2007	42.2	33.5	8.9	3.7	7.7	4.0	8.7
Marktest	17–20 Apr 2007	43.3	27.7	12.6	4.8	7.8	3.8	15.6
Aximage	16–18 Apr 2007	36.9	28.2	7.3	6.3	7.5	13.8	8.7
Aximage	30 Mar–4 Apr 2007	35.7	30.0	7.0	6.5	7.9	12.9	5.7
Eurosondagem	28 Mar–2 Apr 2007	44.2	32.3	9.5	2.7	7.4	3.9	11.9
Marktest	19–21 Mar 2007	46.5	25.8	9.2	5.7	9.0	3.8	20.7
Eurosondagem	2 Mar 2007	45.4	32.0	8.6	3.8	6.4	3.8	13.4
Aximage	1–2 Mar 2007	37.4	31.2	6.2	6.3	7.6	11.3	6.2
Marktest	13–16 Feb 2007	47.1	27.3	9.7	4.8	7.0	4.1	19.8
Aximage	31 Jan–2 Feb 2007	39.0	29.4	6.5	5.0	6.0	14.1	9.6
Eurosondagem	25–30 Jan 2007	44.4	33.3	7.8	4.4	6.7	3.4	11.1
Marktest	16–19 Jan 2007	42.7	28.4	9.2	7.6	8.3	3.8	14.3
Eurosondagem	12 Jan 2007	45.5	34.4	7.7	4.0	6.6	1.8	11.1
Aximage	7–9 Jan 2007	38.9	28.4	8.2	3.4	4.9	16.2	10.5
Marktest	19–22 Dec 2006	43.1	28.5	9.8	6.7	8.3	3.6	14.6
Aximage	5–7 Dec 2006	40.9	28.6	7.1	3.0	3.9	16.5	12.3
Eurosondagem	29 Nov–5 Dec 2006	44.4	31.3	8.8	4.7	8.0	2.8	13.1
Marktest	13–15 Nov 2006	43.4	28.5	10.3	5.7	8.2	3.9	14.9
Eurosondagem	10 Nov 2006	43.7	32.2	9.2	4.6	6.9	3.4	11.5
Aximage	6–8 Nov 2006	39.4	29.3	7.2	2.8	3.9	17.4	10.1
Marktest	17–20 Oct 2006	42.0	29.7	10.6	3.9	9.7	4.1	12.3
Aximage	2–4 Oct 2006	38.2	29.7	7.3	3.4	4.7	16.7	8.5
Eurosondagem	27 Sep–3 Oct 2006	44.6	33.5	7.7	4.0	6.5	3.7	11.1
Marktest	19–22 Sep 2006	45.7	29.9	9.9	1.7	8.4	4.4	15.8
Aximage	6–7 Sep 2006	36.6	29.6	9.1	3.3	6.7	14.7	7.0
Eurosondagem	31 Aug–5 Sep 2006	44.2	34.3	7.1	5.0	5.9	3.5	9.9
Marktest	15–18 Aug 2006	44.4	30.9	9.8	2.2	8.5	4.2	13.5
Marktest	18–21 Jul 2006	43.1	31.9	9.7	2.6	8.6	4.1	11.2
Eurosondagem	29 Jun–4 Jul 2006	43.8	32.5	8.7	3.9	7.5	3.6	11.3
Marktest	20–23 Jun 2006	44.1	28.6	9.5	6.1	7.8	3.9	15.5
Eurosondagem	8 Jun 2006	43.0	34.5	8.0	4.9	6.9	2.7	8.5
Aximage	2–3 Jun 2006	36.8	31.7	7.6	3.8	5.7	14.4	5.1
Marktest	16–19 May 2006	42.1	30.2	8.2	7.0	8.5	4.0	11.9
Aximage	4–5 May 2006	37.5	32.2	8.2	4.6	3.8	13.7	5.3
Eurosondagem	26 Apr–2 May 2006	43.3	36.0	6.9	5.0	5.2	3.6	7.3
Marktest	18–21 Apr 2006	43.1	30.5	8.0	5.2	9.0	4.2	12.6
Eurosondagem	10 Apr 2006	42.4	36.6	7.7	4.7	5.0	3.6	5.8
Aximage	1–3 Apr 2006	37.8	34.2	7.6	3.8	4.4	12.2	3.6
Marktest	21–24 Mar 2006	41.9	35.1	7.2	4.0	7.8	4.0	6.8
Eurosondagem	2–7 Mar 2006	42.6	34.3	8.4	4.8	6.3	3.6	8.3
Aximage	1–3 Mar 2006	37.9	34.1	6.9	4.0	5.1	12.0	3.8
Marktest	15–19 Feb 2006	38.0	35.8	9.6	3.8	8.8	4.0	2.2
Eurosondagem	2–7 Feb 2006	41.4	36.0	8.0	5.2	5.8	3.6	5.4
Aximage	1–3 Feb 2006	37.9	34.5	6.9	4.4	7.3	9.0	3.4
Eurosondagem	5–10 Jan 2006	43.3	33.0	7.7	5.8	6.9	3.3	10.3
Aximage	3–5 Jan 2006	37.5	33.9	7.1	4.2	8.2	9.1	3.6
Aximage [ permanent dead link ]	30 Nov–2 Dec 2005	35.4	34.9	7.4	4.8	7.7	9.8	0.5
Marktest	15–19 Nov 2005	35.4	37.7	9.1	5.3	8.5	4.0	2.3
Aximage	7–8 Nov 2005	35.1	33.4	8.1	4.1	7.2	12.1	1.7
Marktest	18–21 Oct 2005	37.3	36.1	8.2	5.3	9.1	4.0	1.2
Aximage	17–19 Oct 2005	35.4	32.7	7.6	3.7	8.0	12.6	2.7
2005 local elections	9 Oct 2005	35.9 (94)	39.9 (105)	10.9 (22)	3.1 (4)	3.0 (5)	7.2 (0)	4.0
Eurosondagem	22–27 Sep 2005	42.5	33.0	8.0	7.0	6.0	3.5	9.5
Marktest	20–26 Sep 2005	33.7	39.0	9.6	4.3	9.6	3.8	5.3
Aximage	5–6 Sep 2005	38.2	30.1				31.7	8.1
Eurosondagem	1–6 Sep 2005	43.0	31.9	7.8	6.2	6.8	4.2	11.1
Marktest	19–22 Jul 2005	43.0	31.2	8.2	4.0	9.4	4.2	11.8
Aximage	1–5 Jul 2005	40.4	28.4	6.5	4.5	7.2	13.0	12.0
UCP [ usurped ]	18–20 Jun 2005	42	31	11	3	8	5	11
Marktest	14–17 Jun 2005	46.5	27.7	10.8	4.2	6.9	3.9	18.8
Aximage	3–6 Jun 2005	45.7	26.0	5.8	3.1	6.7	12.7	19.3
Marktest	17–19 May 2005	48.8	30.2	6.0	4.2	6.8	4.0	18.6
Aximage	3–4 May 2005	46.1	26.5	6.6	4.9	5.2	10.7	19.6
Marktest	19–22 Apr 2005	45.7	30.6	7.2	4.5	8.1	3.9	15.1
Aximage	3–4 Apr 2005	44.7	29.3	7.2	4.8	5.8	8.2	15.4
Marktest [ usurped ]	15–18 Mar 2005	51.7	26.3	6.5	5.0	6.7	3.8	25.4
2005 legislative election	20 Feb 2005	45.0 121	28.8 75	7.5 14	7.2 12	6.4 8	5.1 0	16.2

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Sócrates vs Ferreira Leite

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	José Sócrates	Ferreira Leite	N/B/NO	Lead
Aximage	14–17 Sep 2009	45.7	26.4	27.9	19.3
Aximage	1–4 Sep 2009	42.0	26.1	31.9	15.9
Aximage	1–6 Jul 2009	42.4	29.1	28.5	13.3
Aximage	1–4 Jun 2009	46.0	32.0	22.0	14.0
Aximage	5–7 May 2009	46.6	22.7	30.7	23.9
Aximage	1–3 Apr 2009	46.6	22.7	30.7	23.9
Aximage	2–5 Mar 2009	48.3	20.5	31.2	27.8
Aximage	2–5 Feb 2009	47.9	22.3	29.8	25.6
Aximage	6–9 Jan 2009	47.5	22.9	29.6	24.6
Aximage	3–5 Dec 2008	47.9	24.9	27.2	23.0
Aximage	3–5 Nov 2008	46.8	26.3	26.9	20.5
Aximage	6–8 Oct 2008	40.9	28.4	30.7	12.5
Aximage	8–10 Sep 2008	38.7	30.3	31.0	8.4
Aximage	28–29 Jul 2008	37.0	33.2	29.8	3.8
Aximage	1–4 Jul 2008	36.1	33.1	30.8	3.0

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	José Sócrates' cabinet
		Approve	Disapprove	Neither	No opinion	Net
CESOP–UCP	4–8 Sep 2009	37	57	—	6	20
CESOP–UCP	13–14 Dec 2008	35	60	—	5	25
CESOP–UCP	23–24 Feb 2008	26	66	—	8	40

External links

• Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
• ERC - Official publication of polls