Opinion polling for the 2015 Portuguese legislative election

Last updated

In the run up to the 2015 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 5 June 2011, to the day the next election was held, on 4 October 2015.

Graphical summary

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

DatePolling FirmSample size Logo Portugal a Frente.svg [lower-alpha 1] PS Logo (Text version).png Simbolo CDU (PCP-PEV) (Letras).png LeftBloc.svg MPT (Simbolo Eleitoral).png Partido LIVRE logo.png Simbolo do Partido Democratico Republicano.png OthersLead
Partido Social Democrata Logo.svg Cds simbolo 2.png
4 Oct 2015 2015 legislative election 55.9%38.632.38.310.20.40.71.18.46.3
4 Oct Aximage [lower-alpha 2] 40.232.38.99.49.27.9
4 Oct Eurosondagem [lower-alpha 2] 46,62638.331.37.99.313.27.0
4 Oct Intercampus [lower-alpha 2] 17,72639.231.78.510.210.47.5
4 Oct UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 2] 25,89840.532.58.09.51.08.58.0
Exit polls
26 Sep–1 Oct Aximage 1,38739.132.59.29.010.26.6
26–30 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 1,07039.034.010.08.09.05.0
22–30 Sep Intercampus 1,01337.232.98.87.90.50.51.710.54.3
29 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 20040.331.88.17.112.78.5
26–29 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,00838.432.18.47.913.26.3
25–29 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 1,01039.033.011.08.09.06.0
24–29 Sep Eurosondagem 2,06737.732.79.46.713.55.0
22–29 Sep Marktest 1,60741.028.69.38.70.80.710.912.4
28 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 20039.032.18.27.113.66.9
25–28 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,00838.831.68.27.913.57.2
24–28 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 1,07140.034.010.07.09.06.0
27 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 19938.431.88.47.114.36.6
26–27 Sep UCP–CESOP 3,30238.032.09.09.01.01.010.06.0
24–27 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,02537.932.19.17.513.45.8
23–27 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 1,07541.034.09.07.09.07.0
26 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 20037.932.38.67.014.25.6
23–26 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,02538.133.09.06.713.25.1
22–26 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 93643.033.08.07.09.010.0
25 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 37.732.330.05.4
22–25 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,02537.532.88.96.70.31.112.74.7
21–25 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 1,02742.035.08.07.08.07.0
24 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 37.732.629.75.1
21–24 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,02437.032.39.26.11.114.34.7
20–24 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 1,04641.034.09.07.09.07.0
18–24 Sep Aximage 71037.932.09.07.114.05.9
23 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 10037.033.47.66.515.53.6
20–23 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,01737.932.97.86.015.45.0
19–23 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 89140.035.09.08.08.05.0
17–23 Sep Eurosondagem 1,54835.536.010.15.01.51.910.00.5
22 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 10336.334.37.96.215.32.0
19–22 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,00738.934.18.34.813.94.8
18–22 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 82840.034.010.08.08.06.0
21 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 35.934.729.41.2
18–21 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 1,00538.935.77.34.413.73.2
17–21 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 73840.035.08.07.010.05.0
20 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 35.634.829.60.8
18–20 Sep Intercampus [lower-alpha 3] 73340.137.16.34.012.53.0
19 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 35.634.929.50.7
16–19 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 61340.035.08.07.010.05.0
18 Sep Aximage [lower-alpha 3] 35.535.18.45.715.30.4
15–18 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 67840.034.08.08.010.06.0
14–17 Sep UCP–CESOP [lower-alpha 3] 64741.034.07.08.010.07.0
13–17 Sep Aximage 70435.334.78.35.816.00.6
11–16 Sep Eurosondagem 1,86734.035.510.35.21.82.211.01.5
4–7 Sep Aximage 60238.933.38.54.61.61.811.35.6
27 Aug–2 Sep Eurosondagem 1,04035.036.010.44.61.72.310.01.0
29 Jul–4 Aug Eurosondagem 1,03034.836.310.05.01.72.39.91.5
12–16 Jul Aximage 60737.838.07.54.01.31.410.00.2
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,02534.636.710.24.81.92.59.32.1
26 Jun–4 Jul Intercampus 1,01432.737.611.06.00.90.60.810.44.9
15–21 Jun Pitagórica 52336.433.510.13.61.31.613.52.9
13–16 Jun UCP–CESOP 1,04838.037.010.08.07.01.0
4–9 Jun Eurosondagem 1,03033.336.910.54.52.02.710.13.6
31 May–4 Jun Aximage 59837.238.07.54.01.22.110.00.8
7–12 May Eurosondagem 1,02133.638.110.34.81.82.58.94.5
7–10 May Aximage 60537.237.37.74.22.02.69.00.1
9–15 Apr Eurosondagem 1,02526.78.037.510.24.32.02.88.510.8
4–8 Apr Aximage 60230.56.036.99.23.51.73.88.46.4
5–10 Mar Eurosondagem 1,00525.28.138.19.64.42.13.09.512.9
3–6 Mar Aximage 60028.96.136.110.74.01.64.48.27.2
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem [1] 1,51535.037.59.64.22.12.59.12.5
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem [2] 1,51527.87.736.510.04.42.32.78.68.7
5–11 Feb Eurosondagem 1,01526.76.938.19.04.02.23.010.111.4
4–8 Feb Aximage 60830.25.336.79.23.82.55.27.16.5
8–14 Jan Eurosondagem 1,01026.97.937.99.33.52.02.510.011.0
9–12 Jan Aximage 60130.94.736.97.73.53.05.28.16.0
2015
4–10 Dec Eurosondagem 1,03625.27.337.510.13.31.72.212.712.3
1–4 Dec Aximage 60731.05.137.47.65.22.94.16.76.4
6–11 Nov Eurosondagem 1,02225.37.736.910.43.61.01.513.610.6
7–10 Nov Aximage 60331.15.238.57.96.02.12.17.17.4
11–13 Oct UCP–CESOP 1,06428.04.045.010.04.09.017.0
2–7 Oct Eurosondagem 1,02126.28.034.810.54.02.11.612.88.6
1–4 Oct Aximage 60927.46.140.29.27.71.18.312.8
4–9 Sep Eurosondagem 1,01128.07.533.010.74.33.31.7Did not exist11.55.0
31 Aug–3 Sep Aximage 60228.68.430.911.95.714.52.3
31 Jul–6 Aug Eurosondagem 1,03327.87.032.111.04.53.61.912.14.3
25–31 Jul Pitagórica [lower-alpha 4] 50426.85.133.913.03.13.115.07.1
25–31 Jul Pitagórica [lower-alpha 5] 50428.16.930.012.74.23.514.61.9
3–9 Jul Eurosondagem 1,01427.56.632.511.14.94.02.011.45.0
4–7 Jul Aximage 59327.28.331.010.76.915.93.8
2–5 Jun Eurosondagem 1,02526.16.933.011.84.84.62.010.86.9
1–4 Jun Aximage 60824.97.832.013.06.012.77.1
30 May–1 Jun Pitagórica [lower-alpha 4] 50627.56.235.213.64.43.39.87.7
30 May–1 Jun Pitagórica [lower-alpha 5] 50628.06.330.614.44.83.712.22.6
25 May 2014 2014 EP elections 33.8%27.731.512.74.67.12.214.33.8
19–24 May Intercampus 4,00428.72.429.111.45.423.00.4
14–22 May Aximage 1,50729.07.336.210.36.510.77.2
1–7 May Eurosondagem 1,00526.98.138.010.46.610.011.1
2–5 May Aximage 60530.56.836.210.56.69.45.7
12–14 Apr UCP–CESOP 1,11730.04.036.012.07.011.06.0
9–12 Apr Aximage 61331.56.136.111.86.48.14.6
3–9 Apr Eurosondagem 1,01125.28.137.310.97.511.012.1
25–29 Mar Pitagórica 50627.67.639.010.36.98.611.4
6–12 Mar Eurosondagem 1,02126.68.436.611.16.910.410.0
8–11 Mar Aximage 58733.35.736.811.75.47.13.5
24 Feb–1 Mar Pitagórica 50628.48.737.210.54.910.28.8
9–12 Feb Aximage 60431.45.438.19.75.79.76.7
6–12 Feb Eurosondagem 1,02525.67.736.910.57.012.311.3
20–24 Jan Pitagórica 50625.87.837.811.46.6Did not exist10.612.0
9–15 Jan Eurosondagem 1,01025.08.037.510.46.612.512.5
7–10 Jan Aximage 60130.65.838.59.26.39.67.9
2014
10–15 Dec Pitagórica 50325.79.036.711.26.7Was not polledDid not existDid not exist10.711.0
5–10 Dec Eurosondagem 1,03526.58.536.510.06.512.010.0
6–9 Dec Aximage 60929.68.336.49.76.39.76.8
19–21 Nov Marktest 80025.61.535.617.26.513.610.0
6–9 Nov Aximage 60228.49.436.910.36.88.28.5
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,00525.68.437.311.15.911.711.7
22–25 Oct Marktest 80326.22.335.816.65.513.69.6
19–22 Oct Aximage 60726.912.130.212.47.211.23.3
14–19 Oct Pitagórica 50623.78.636.713.26.611.213.0
2–8 Oct Eurosondagem 1,01026.98.636.512.15.910.09.6
29 Sep 2013 2013 local elections 52.6%31.43.436.711.12.40.114.85.3
28–29 Sep Intercampus 1,00027.04.039.011.07.0Was not polled12.012.0
26–29 Sep Aximage 60930.210.334.510.45.69.04.3
17–19 Sep Marktest 80128.52.536.611.57.313.68.1
5–11 Sep Eurosondagem 1,03826.56.538.012.56.510.011.5
1–3 Sep Aximage 60928.07.635.311.86.610.77.3
25–31 Jul Eurosondagem 1,02024.47.737.412.57.510.513.0
27–29 Jul Universidade Católica 1,09632.03.035.011.07.012.03.0
24–28 Jul Pitagórica 50724.18.134.613.18.711.410.5
16–18 Jul Marktest 80427.65.234.210.88.613.66.6
8–11 Jul Aximage 60328.05.837.410.56.711.69.4
5–10 Jul Eurosondagem 1,00725.08.037.012.08.010.012.0
28 Jun–2 Jul Pitagórica 50323.79.133.913.28.911.210.2
4–7 Jun Aximage 59923.29.435.511.58.412.012.3
30 May–4 Jun Eurosondagem 1,02824.87.736.913.08.09.612.1
27–30 May Marktest 80225.05.634.613.18.213.59.6
23–28 May Pitagórica 50625.49.532.712.69.410.47.3
7–10 May Aximage 60426.29.535.59.46.912.59.3
2–8 May Eurosondagem 1,00925.98.436.012.18.88.810.1
17–20 Apr Pitagórica 50326.912.028.612.88.711.01.7
5–10 Apr Eurosondagem 1,02526.58.535.012.58.59.08.5
1–4 Apr Aximage 60125.39.432.612.07.812.97.3
19–24 Mar Pitagórica 50325.710.636.711.27.97.911.0
9–11 Mar Universidade Católica 94928.05.031.012.08.016.03.0
4–6 Mar Aximage 60725.112.131.612.27.111.96.5
28 Feb–5 Mar Eurosondagem 1,02227.09.035.212.18.08.78.2
20–24 Feb Pitagórica 50326.410.735.110.78.68.58.7
5–8 Feb Aximage 60229.18.732.011.56.312.42.9
30 Jan–5 Feb Eurosondagem 1,01127.69.534.111.68.48.86.5
22–25 Jan Pitagórica 50428.610.233.812.08.07.45.2
15–21 Jan Marktest 80327.95.232.612.413.38.64.7
6–9 Jan Aximage 60326.310.332.911.87.411.36.6
3–8 Jan Eurosondagem 1,01026.99.634.310.38.810.17.4
2013
13–18 Dec Pitagórica 51129.011.434.611.28.4Was not polledDid not existDid not exist5.45.6
5–11 Dec Eurosondagem 1,03426.410.034.011.09.09.67.6
4–7 Dec Aximage 60926.88.032.911.07.613.76.1
9–16 Nov Pitagórica 50526.49.836.29.87.510.29.8
7–13 Nov Eurosondagem 1,03326.910.135.010.09.58.58.1
30 Oct–6 Nov Aximage 60226.37.932.19.67.516.65.8
8–13 Oct Pitagórica 50329.58.334.19.17.211.84.6
4–9 Oct Eurosondagem 1,02130.010.034.89.57.78.04.8
1–4 Oct Aximage 60424.97.933.79.57.017.08.8
17–20 Sep Marktest 80520.25.229.610.18.626.39.4
15–17 Sep UCP–CESOP 1,13224.07.031.013.011.014.07.0
10–13 Sep Eurosondagem 1,03733.010.333.79.37.06.70.7
3–6 Sep Aximage 60033.37.135.47.75.311.22.1
9–14 Aug Eurosondagem 1,01134.110.133.08.86.67.41.1
17–20 Jul Marktest 80326.74.425.89.96.926.30.9
5–10 Jul Eurosondagem 1,03634.610.132.58.76.97.22.1
2–4 Jul Aximage 60035.07.930.87.85.313.24.2
19–22 Jun Marktest 80031.32.829.29.55.421.82.1
7–12 Jun Eurosondagem 1,02234.311.632.19.06.96.12.2
4–6 Jun Aximage 60036.67.528.210.15.012.68.4
26–28 May UCP–CESOP 1,36636.06.033.09.09.07.03.0
22–24 May Marktest 80730.43.529.19.68.518.91.3
10–15 May Eurosondagem 1,01134.811.631.28.86.07.63.6
2–5 May Aximage 60036.36.228.99.74.314.67.4
17–21 Apr Marktest 81031.43.625.410.27.821.66.0
11–17 Apr Eurosondagem 1,03635.310.730.59.16.48.04.8
3–5 Apr Aximage 60035.08.727.810.14.014.47.2
19–23 Mar Marktest 80236.55.220.57.66.323.916.0
8–13 Mar Eurosondagem 1,02136.012.029.68.56.97.06.4
5–7 Mar Aximage 60036.26.531.49.22.913.84.8
14–22 Feb Marktest 80030.23.925.99.36.024.74.3
2–7 Feb Eurosondagem 1,01035.011.730.08.56.58.35.0
1–4 Feb Aximage 60037.58.930.38.82.811.77.2
17–22 Jan Marktest 80037.64.025.26.17.719.412.4
5–10 Jan Eurosondagem 1,06436.412.130.37.76.47.16.1
3–6 Jan Aximage 60037.99.330.010.72.59.67.9
2012
7–13 Dec Eurosondagem 1,03336.012.530.08.86.4Was not polledDid not existDid not exist6.36.0
5–8 Dec Aximage 60039.59.127.711.33.39.111.8
15–19 Nov Marktest 80445.45.019.77.94.117.925.7
10–15 Nov Eurosondagem 1,02536.312.129.69.06.16.96.7
7–10 Nov Aximage 60041.29.526.810.63.58.414.4
20–25 Oct Eurosondagem 1,03236.912.529.28.86.36.37.7
18–22 Oct Marktest 80941.65.319.710.54.218.721.9
3–5 Oct Aximage 60041.110.226.07.65.010.115.1
22–27 Sep Eurosondagem 1,03639.312.128.28.25.36.911.1
20–23 Sep Marktest 80447.16.823.34.02.716.123.8
10–11 Sep UCP–CESOP 1,45743.06.033.07.06.05.010.0
7–10 Sep Aximage 60040.97.125.19.03.214.715.8
26–30 Aug Eurosondagem 1,02539.612.526.98.45.57.112.7
14–19 Jul Eurosondagem 1,02240.013.126.38.05.17.513.7
5–8 Jul Aximage 60042.010.324.07.55.910.318.0
26–28 Jun Eurosondagem 1,01040.813.625.07.74.88.115.8
5 Jun 2011 2011 legislative election 58.0%38.711.728.07.95.20.47.710.6

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 116 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic.

116 seats needed for majority
DatePolling Firm Logo Portugal a Frente.svg [lower-alpha 1] PS Logo (Text version).png Simbolo CDU (PCP-PEV) (Letras).png LeftBloc.svg MPT (Simbolo Eleitoral).png Partido LIVRE logo.png Simbolo do Partido Democratico Republicano.png Others
Partido Social Democrata Logo.svg Cds simbolo 2.png
4 Oct 2015 2015 legislative election 1078617190001
4 Oct Eurosondagem 100−10884−9015−1816−1900−10−10
4 Oct Intercampus 106−11877−8912−2015−2300−100−2
4 Oct UCP–CESOP 108−11680−8813−1716−2000−100
Exit polls
24–29 Sep Eurosondagem 102−10889−9519−2110−150000−1
26–27 Sep UCP–CESOP 99−11478−9515−2012−1700−100−1
22–26 Sep UCP–CESOP 117891680010
21–25 Sep UCP–CESOP 113911680110
17–23 Sep Eurosondagem 100−10397−10220−225−7010−20
11–16 Sep Eurosondagem 99−10295−10120−226−90120
7–12 May Eurosondagem 971032160120
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem [1] 98−103100−10518−21401−220
18–25 Feb Eurosondagem [2] 78−8713−1799−10520−214−602−32−30
2015
5 Jun 2011 2011 legislative election 108247416800

Notes

  1. 1 2 The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) contested the election in a joint coalition called Portugal Ahead (Portugal à Frente).
  2. 1 2 3 4 This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Tracking poll.
  4. 1 2 Hypothesized scenario with António Costa as PS candidate.
  5. 1 2 Hypothesized scenario with António José Seguro as PS candidate.

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References

  1. 1 2 Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election in a coalition.
  2. 1 2 Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election separately.