Opinion polling for the 2015 Portuguese legislative election

Last updated July 20, 2022

In the run up to the 2015 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Graphical summary

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Date	Polling Firm	Sample size									^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Others	Lead
Date	Polling Firm	Sample size										Others	Lead
4 Oct 2015	2015 Legislative Election	55.9%	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	8.3	10.2	0.4	0.7	1.1	38.6	8.4	6.3
4 Oct	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 2]}		w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	8.9	9.4				40.2	9.2	7.9
4 Oct	Eurosondagem ^{[lower-alpha 2]}	46,626	w.PàF	31.3	w.PàF	7.9	9.3				38.3	13.2	7.0
4 Oct	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 2]}	17,726	w.PàF	31.7	w.PàF	8.5	10.2				39.2	10.4	7.5
4 Oct	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 2]}	25,898	w.PàF	32.5	w.PàF	8.0	9.5		1.0		40.5	8.5	8.0
Exit polls
26 Sep–1 Oct	Aximage	1,387	w.PàF	32.5	w.PàF	9.2	9.0				39.1	10.2	6.6
26–30 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,070	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	10.0	8.0				39.0	9.0	5.0
22–30 Sep	Intercampus	1,013	w.PàF	32.9	w.PàF	8.8	7.9	0.5	0.5	1.7	37.2	10.5	4.3
29 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	200	w.PàF	31.8	w.PàF	8.1	7.1				40.3	12.7	8.5
26–29 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,008	w.PàF	32.1	w.PàF	8.4	7.9				38.4	13.2	6.3
25–29 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,010	w.PàF	33.0	w.PàF	11.0	8.0				39.0	9.0	6.0
24–29 Sep	Eurosondagem	2,067	w.PàF	32.7	w.PàF	9.4	6.7				37.7	13.5	5.0
22–29 Sep	Marktest	1,607	w.PàF	28.6	w.PàF	9.3	8.7		0.8	0.7	41.0	10.9	12.4
28 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	200	w.PàF	32.1	w.PàF	8.2	7.1				39.0	13.6	6.9
25–28 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,008	w.PàF	31.6	w.PàF	8.2	7.9				38.8	13.5	7.2
24–28 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,071	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	10.0	7.0				40.0	9.0	6.0
27 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	199	w.PàF	31.8	w.PàF	8.4	7.1				38.4	14.3	6.6
26–27 Sep	UCP–CESOP	3,302	w.PàF	32.0	w.PàF	9.0	9.0		1.0	1.0	38.0	10.0	6.0
24–27 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,025	w.PàF	32.1	w.PàF	9.1	7.5				37.9	13.4	5.8
23–27 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,075	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	9.0	7.0				41.0	9.0	7.0
26 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	200	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	8.6	7.0				37.9	14.2	5.6
23–26 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,025	w.PàF	33.0	w.PàF	9.0	6.7				38.1	13.2	5.1
22–26 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	936	w.PàF	33.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0				43.0	9.0	10.0
25 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}		w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF						37.7	30.0	5.4
22–25 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,025	w.PàF	32.8	w.PàF	8.9	6.7		0.3	1.1	37.5	12.7	4.7
21–25 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,027	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0				42.0	8.0	7.0
24 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}		w.PàF	32.6	w.PàF						37.7	29.7	5.1
21–24 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,024	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	9.2	6.1			1.1	37.0	14.3	4.7
20–24 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,046	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	9.0	7.0				41.0	9.0	7.0
18–24 Sep	Aximage	710	w.PàF	32.0	w.PàF	9.0	7.1				37.9	14.0	5.9
23 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	100	w.PàF	33.4	w.PàF	7.6	6.5				37.0	15.5	3.6
20–23 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,017	w.PàF	32.9	w.PàF	7.8	6.0				37.9	15.4	5.0
19–23 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	891	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	9.0	8.0				40.0	8.0	5.0
17–23 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,548	w.PàF	36.0	w.PàF	10.1	5.0		1.5	1.9	35.5	10.0	0.5
22 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	103	w.PàF	34.3	w.PàF	7.9	6.2				36.3	15.3	2.0
19–22 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,007	w.PàF	34.1	w.PàF	8.3	4.8				38.9	13.9	4.8
18–22 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	828	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	10.0	8.0				40.0	8.0	6.0
21 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}		w.PàF	34.7	w.PàF						35.9	29.4	1.2
18–21 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	1,005	w.PàF	35.7	w.PàF	7.3	4.4				38.9	13.7	3.2
17–21 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	738	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0				40.0	10.0	5.0
20 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}		w.PàF	34.8	w.PàF						35.6	29.6	0.8
18–20 Sep	Intercampus ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	733	w.PàF	37.1	w.PàF	6.3	4.0				40.1	12.5	3.0
19 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}		w.PàF	34.9	w.PàF						35.6	29.5	0.7
16–19 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	613	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0				40.0	10.0	5.0
18 Sep	Aximage ^{[lower-alpha 3]}		w.PàF	35.1	w.PàF	8.4	5.7				35.5	15.3	0.4
15–18 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	678	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	8.0	8.0				40.0	10.0	6.0
14–17 Sep	UCP–CESOP ^{[lower-alpha 3]}	647	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	7.0	8.0				41.0	10.0	7.0
13–17 Sep	Aximage	704	w.PàF	34.7	w.PàF	8.3	5.8				35.3	16.0	0.6
11–16 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,867	w.PàF	35.5	w.PàF	10.3	5.2		1.8	2.2	34.0	11.0	1.5
4–7 Sep	Aximage	602	w.PàF	33.3	w.PàF	8.5	4.6		1.6	1.8	38.9	11.3	5.6
27 Aug–2 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,040	w.PàF	36.0	w.PàF	10.4	4.6		1.7	2.3	35.0	10.0	1.0
29 Jul–4 Aug	Eurosondagem	1,030	w.PàF	36.3	w.PàF	10.0	5.0		1.7	2.3	34.8	9.9	1.5
12–16 Jul	Aximage	607	w.PàF	38.0	w.PàF	7.5	4.0		1.3	1.4	37.8	10.0	0.2
2–7 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,025	w.PàF	36.7	w.PàF	10.2	4.8		1.9	2.5	34.6	9.3	2.1
26 Jun–4 Jul	Intercampus	1,014	w.PàF	37.6	w.PàF	11.0	6.0	0.9	0.6	0.8	32.7	10.4	4.9
15–21 Jun	Pitagórica	523	w.PàF	33.5	w.PàF	10.1	3.6		1.3	1.6	36.4	13.5	2.9
13–16 Jun	UCP–CESOP	1,048	w.PàF	37.0	w.PàF	10.0	8.0				38.0	7.0	1.0
4–9 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,030	w.PàF	36.9	w.PàF	10.5	4.5		2.0	2.7	33.3	10.1	3.6
31 May–4 Jun	Aximage	598	w.PàF	38.0	w.PàF	7.5	4.0		1.2	2.1	37.2	10.0	0.8
7–12 May	Eurosondagem	1,021	w.PàF	38.1	w.PàF	10.3	4.8		1.8	2.5	33.6	8.9	4.5
7–10 May	Aximage	605	w.PàF	37.3	w.PàF	7.7	4.2		2.0	2.6	37.2	9.0	0.1
9–15 Apr	Eurosondagem	1,025	26.7	37.5	8.0	10.2	4.3		2.0	2.8	—	8.5	10.8
4–8 Apr	Aximage	602	30.5	36.9	6.0	9.2	3.5		1.7	3.8	—	8.4	6.4
5–10 Mar	Eurosondagem	1,005	25.2	38.1	8.1	9.6	4.4		2.1	3.0	—	9.5	12.9
3–6 Mar	Aximage	600	28.9	36.1	6.1	10.7	4.0		1.6	4.4	—	8.2	7.2
18–25 Feb	Eurosondagem ^[1]	1,515	w.PàF	37.5	w.PàF	9.6	4.2		2.1	2.5	35.0	9.1	2.5
18–25 Feb	Eurosondagem ^[2]	1,515	27.8	36.5	7.7	10.0	4.4		2.3	2.7	Did not exist	8.6	8.7
5–11 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,015	26.7	38.1	6.9	9.0	4.0		2.2	3.0		10.1	11.4
4–8 Feb	Aximage	608	30.2	36.7	5.3	9.2	3.8		2.5	5.2		7.1	6.5
8–14 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,010	26.9	37.9	7.9	9.3	3.5		2.0	2.5		10.0	11.0
9–12 Jan	Aximage	601	30.9	36.9	4.7	7.7	3.5		3.0	5.2		8.1	6.0
2015
4–10 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,036	25.2	37.5	7.3	10.1	3.3		1.7	2.2	Did not exist	12.7	12.3
1–4 Dec	Aximage	607	31.0	37.4	5.1	7.6	5.2		2.9	4.1		6.7	6.4
6–11 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,022	25.3	36.9	7.7	10.4	3.6	1.0	1.5			13.6	10.6
7–10 Nov	Aximage	603	31.1	38.5	5.2	7.9	6.0		2.1	2.1		7.1	7.4
11–13 Oct	UCP–CESOP	1,064	28.0	45.0	4.0	10.0	4.0					9.0	17.0
2–7 Oct	Eurosondagem	1,021	26.2	34.8	8.0	10.5	4.0	2.1	1.6			12.8	8.6
1–4 Oct	Aximage	609	27.4	40.2	6.1	9.2	7.7			1.1		8.3	12.8
4–9 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,011	28.0	33.0	7.5	10.7	4.3	3.3	1.7	Did not exist		11.5	5.0
31 Aug–3 Sep	Aximage	602	28.6	30.9	8.4	11.9	5.7					14.5	2.3
31 Jul–6 Aug	Eurosondagem	1,033	27.8	32.1	7.0	11.0	4.5	3.6	1.9			12.1	4.3
25–31 Jul	Pitagórica ^{[lower-alpha 4]}	504	26.8	33.9	5.1	13.0	3.1	3.1				15.0	7.1
25–31 Jul	Pitagórica ^{[lower-alpha 5]}	504	28.1	30.0	6.9	12.7	4.2	3.5				14.6	1.9
3–9 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,014	27.5	32.5	6.6	11.1	4.9	4.0	2.0			11.4	5.0
4–7 Jul	Aximage	593	27.2	31.0	8.3	10.7	6.9					15.9	3.8
2–5 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,025	26.1	33.0	6.9	11.8	4.8	4.6	2.0			10.8	6.9
1–4 Jun	Aximage	608	24.9	32.0	7.8	13.0	6.0					12.7	7.1
30 May–1 Jun	Pitagórica ^{[lower-alpha 4]}	506	27.5	35.2	6.2	13.6	4.4	3.3				9.8	7.7
30 May–1 Jun	Pitagórica ^{[lower-alpha 5]}	506	28.0	30.6	6.3	14.4	4.8	3.7				12.2	2.6
25 May 2014	2014 EP Elections	33.8%	w.AP	31.5	w.AP	12.7	4.6	7.1	2.2		27.7	14.3	3.8
19–24 May	Intercampus	4,004	28.7	29.1	2.4	11.4	5.4				Did not exist	23.0	0.4
14–22 May	Aximage	1,507	29.0	36.2	7.3	10.3	6.5					10.7	7.2
1–7 May	Eurosondagem	1,005	26.9	38.0	8.1	10.4	6.6					10.0	11.1
2–5 May	Aximage	605	30.5	36.2	6.8	10.5	6.6					9.4	5.7
12–14 Apr	UCP–CESOP	1,117	30.0	36.0	4.0	12.0	7.0					11.0	6.0
9–12 Apr	Aximage	613	31.5	36.1	6.1	11.8	6.4					8.1	4.6
3–9 Apr	Eurosondagem	1,011	25.2	37.3	8.1	10.9	7.5					11.0	12.1
25–29 Mar	Pitagórica	506	27.6	39.0	7.6	10.3	6.9					8.6	11.4
6–12 Mar	Eurosondagem	1,021	26.6	36.6	8.4	11.1	6.9					10.4	10.0
8–11 Mar	Aximage	587	33.3	36.8	5.7	11.7	5.4					7.1	3.5
24 Feb–1 Mar	Pitagórica	506	28.4	37.2	8.7	10.5	4.9					10.2	8.8
9–12 Feb	Aximage	604	31.4	38.1	5.4	9.7	5.7					9.7	6.7
6–12 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,025	25.6	36.9	7.7	10.5	7.0					12.3	11.3
20–24 Jan	Pitagórica	506	25.8	37.8	7.8	11.4	6.6		Did not exist			10.6	12.0
9–15 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,010	25.0	37.5	8.0	10.4	6.6					12.5	12.5
7–10 Jan	Aximage	601	30.6	38.5	5.8	9.2	6.3					9.6	7.9
2014
10–15 Dec	Pitagórica	503	25.7	36.7	9.0	11.2	6.7	Was not polled	Did not exist	Did not exist	Did not exist	10.7	11.0
5–10 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,035	26.5	36.5	8.5	10.0	6.5					12.0	10.0
6–9 Dec	Aximage	609	29.6	36.4	8.3	9.7	6.3					9.7	6.8
19–21 Nov	Marktest	800	25.6	35.6	1.5	17.2	6.5					13.6	10.0
6–9 Nov	Aximage	602	28.4	36.9	9.4	10.3	6.8					8.2	8.5
30 Oct–5 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,005	25.6	37.3	8.4	11.1	5.9					11.7	11.7
22–25 Oct	Marktest	803	26.2	35.8	2.3	16.6	5.5					13.6	9.6
19–22 Oct	Aximage	607	26.9	30.2	12.1	12.4	7.2					11.2	3.3
14–19 Oct	Pitagórica	506	23.7	36.7	8.6	13.2	6.6					11.2	13.0
2–8 Oct	Eurosondagem	1,010	26.9	36.5	8.6	12.1	5.9					10.0	9.6
29 Sep 2013	2013 Local Elections	52.6%	31.4	36.7	3.4	11.1	2.4	0.1				14.8	5.3
28–29 Sep	Intercampus	1,000	27.0	39.0	4.0	11.0	7.0	Was not polled				12.0	12.0
26–29 Sep	Aximage	609	30.2	34.5	10.3	10.4	5.6					9.0	4.3
17–19 Sep	Marktest	801	28.5	36.6	2.5	11.5	7.3					13.6	8.1
5–11 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,038	26.5	38.0	6.5	12.5	6.5					10.0	11.5
1–3 Sep	Aximage	609	28.0	35.3	7.6	11.8	6.6					10.7	7.3
25–31 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,020	24.4	37.4	7.7	12.5	7.5					10.5	13.0
27–29 Jul	Universidade Católica	1,096	32.0	35.0	3.0	11.0	7.0					12.0	3.0
24–28 Jul	Pitagórica	507	24.1	34.6	8.1	13.1	8.7					11.4	10.5
16–18 Jul	Marktest	804	27.6	34.2	5.2	10.8	8.6					13.6	6.6
8–11 Jul	Aximage	603	28.0	37.4	5.8	10.5	6.7					11.6	9.4
5–10 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,007	25.0	37.0	8.0	12.0	8.0					10.0	12.0
28 Jun–2 Jul	Pitagórica	503	23.7	33.9	9.1	13.2	8.9					11.2	10.2
4–7 Jun	Aximage	599	23.2	35.5	9.4	11.5	8.4					12.0	12.3
30 May–4 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,028	24.8	36.9	7.7	13.0	8.0					9.6	12.1
27–30 May	Marktest	802	25.0	34.6	5.6	13.1	8.2					13.5	9.6
23–28 May	Pitagórica	506	25.4	32.7	9.5	12.6	9.4					10.4	7.3
7–10 May	Aximage	604	26.2	35.5	9.5	9.4	6.9					12.5	9.3
2–8 May	Eurosondagem	1,009	25.9	36.0	8.4	12.1	8.8					8.8	10.1
17–20 Apr	Pitagórica	503	26.9	28.6	12.0	12.8	8.7					11.0	1.7
5–10 Apr	Eurosondagem	1,025	26.5	35.0	8.5	12.5	8.5					9.0	8.5
1–4 Apr	Aximage	601	25.3	32.6	9.4	12.0	7.8					12.9	7.3
19–24 Mar	Pitagórica	503	25.7	36.7	10.6	11.2	7.9					7.9	11.0
9–11 Mar	Universidade Católica	949	28.0	31.0	5.0	12.0	8.0					16.0	3.0
4–6 Mar	Aximage	607	25.1	31.6	12.1	12.2	7.1					11.9	6.5
28 Feb–5 Mar	Eurosondagem	1,022	27.0	35.2	9.0	12.1	8.0					8.7	8.2
20–24 Feb	Pitagórica	503	26.4	35.1	10.7	10.7	8.6					8.5	8.7
5–8 Feb	Aximage	602	29.1	32.0	8.7	11.5	6.3					12.4	2.9
30 Jan–5 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,011	27.6	34.1	9.5	11.6	8.4					8.8	6.5
22–25 Jan	Pitagórica	504	28.6	33.8	10.2	12.0	8.0					7.4	5.2
15–21 Jan	Marktest	803	27.9	32.6	5.2	12.4	13.3					8.6	4.7
6–9 Jan	Aximage	603	26.3	32.9	10.3	11.8	7.4					11.3	6.6
3–8 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,010	26.9	34.3	9.6	10.3	8.8					10.1	7.4
2013
13–18 Dec	Pitagórica	511	29.0	34.6	11.4	11.2	8.4	Was not polled	Did not exist	Did not exist	Did not exist	5.4	5.6
5–11 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,034	26.4	34.0	10.0	11.0	9.0					9.6	7.6
4–7 Dec	Aximage	609	26.8	32.9	8.0	11.0	7.6					13.7	6.1
9–16 Nov	Pitagórica	505	26.4	36.2	9.8	9.8	7.5					10.2	9.8
7–13 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,033	26.9	35.0	10.1	10.0	9.5					8.5	8.1
30 Oct–6 Nov	Aximage	602	26.3	32.1	7.9	9.6	7.5					16.6	5.8
8–13 Oct	Pitagórica	503	29.5	34.1	8.3	9.1	7.2					11.8	4.6
4–9 Oct	Eurosondagem	1,021	30.0	34.8	10.0	9.5	7.7					8.0	4.8
1–4 Oct	Aximage	604	24.9	33.7	7.9	9.5	7.0					17.0	8.8
17–20 Sep	Marktest	805	20.2	29.6	5.2	10.1	8.6					26.3	9.4
15–17 Sep	UCP–CESOP	1,132	24.0	31.0	7.0	13.0	11.0					14.0	7.0
10–13 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,037	33.0	33.7	10.3	9.3	7.0					6.7	0.7
3–6 Sep	Aximage	600	33.3	35.4	7.1	7.7	5.3					11.2	2.1
9–14 Aug	Eurosondagem	1,011	34.1	33.0	10.1	8.8	6.6					7.4	1.1
17–20 Jul	Marktest	803	26.7	25.8	4.4	9.9	6.9					26.3	0.9
5–10 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,036	34.6	32.5	10.1	8.7	6.9					7.2	2.1
2–4 Jul	Aximage	600	35.0	30.8	7.9	7.8	5.3					13.2	4.2
19–22 Jun	Marktest	800	31.3	29.2	2.8	9.5	5.4					21.8	2.1
7–12 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,022	34.3	32.1	11.6	9.0	6.9					6.1	2.2
4–6 Jun	Aximage	600	36.6	28.2	7.5	10.1	5.0					12.6	8.4
26–28 May	UCP–CESOP	1,366	36.0	33.0	6.0	9.0	9.0					7.0	3.0
22–24 May	Marktest	807	30.4	29.1	3.5	9.6	8.5					18.9	1.3
10–15 May	Eurosondagem	1,011	34.8	31.2	11.6	8.8	6.0					7.6	3.6
2–5 May	Aximage	600	36.3	28.9	6.2	9.7	4.3					14.6	7.4
17–21 Apr	Marktest	810	31.4	25.4	3.6	10.2	7.8					21.6	6.0
11–17 Apr	Eurosondagem	1,036	35.3	30.5	10.7	9.1	6.4					8.0	4.8
3–5 Apr	Aximage	600	35.0	27.8	8.7	10.1	4.0					14.4	7.2
19–23 Mar	Marktest	802	36.5	20.5	5.2	7.6	6.3					23.9	16.0
8–13 Mar	Eurosondagem	1,021	36.0	29.6	12.0	8.5	6.9					7.0	6.4
5–7 Mar	Aximage	600	36.2	31.4	6.5	9.2	2.9					13.8	4.8
14–22 Feb	Marktest	800	30.2	25.9	3.9	9.3	6.0					24.7	4.3
2–7 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,010	35.0	30.0	11.7	8.5	6.5					8.3	5.0
1–4 Feb	Aximage	600	37.5	30.3	8.9	8.8	2.8					11.7	7.2
17–22 Jan	Marktest	800	37.6	25.2	4.0	6.1	7.7					19.4	12.4
5–10 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,064	36.4	30.3	12.1	7.7	6.4					7.1	6.1
3–6 Jan	Aximage	600	37.9	30.0	9.3	10.7	2.5					9.6	7.9
2012
7–13 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,033	36.0	30.0	12.5	8.8	6.4	Was not polled	Did not exist	Did not exist	Did not exist	6.3	6.0
5–8 Dec	Aximage	600	39.5	27.7	9.1	11.3	3.3					9.1	11.8
15–19 Nov	Marktest	804	45.4	19.7	5.0	7.9	4.1					17.9	25.7
10–15 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,025	36.3	29.6	12.1	9.0	6.1					6.9	6.7
7–10 Nov	Aximage	600	41.2	26.8	9.5	10.6	3.5					8.4	14.4
20–25 Oct	Eurosondagem	1,032	36.9	29.2	12.5	8.8	6.3					6.3	7.7
18–22 Oct	Marktest	809	41.6	19.7	5.3	10.5	4.2					18.7	21.9
3–5 Oct	Aximage	600	41.1	26.0	10.2	7.6	5.0					10.1	15.1
22–27 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,036	39.3	28.2	12.1	8.2	5.3					6.9	11.1
20–23 Sep	Marktest	804	47.1	23.3	6.8	4.0	2.7					16.1	23.8
10–11 Sep	UCP–CESOP	1,457	43.0	33.0	6.0	7.0	6.0					5.0	10.0
7–10 Sep	Aximage	600	40.9	25.1	7.1	9.0	3.2					14.7	15.8
26–30 Aug	Eurosondagem	1,025	39.6	26.9	12.5	8.4	5.5					7.1	12.7
14–19 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,022	40.0	26.3	13.1	8.0	5.1					7.5	13.7
5–8 Jul	Aximage	600	42.0	24.0	10.3	7.5	5.9					10.3	18.0
26–28 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,010	40.8	25.0	13.6	7.7	4.8					8.1	15.8
5 Jun 2011	2011 Legislative Election	58.0%	38.7	28.0	11.7	7.9	5.2	0.4				7.7	10.6

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 116 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic.

116 seats needed for majority
Date	Polling Firm									^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Others
Date	Polling Firm										Others
4 Oct 2015	2015 Legislative Election	w.PàF	86	w.PàF	17	19	0	0	0	107	1
4 Oct	Eurosondagem	w.PàF	84−90	w.PàF	15−18	16−19	0	0−1	0−1	100−108	0
4 Oct	Intercampus	w.PàF	77−89	w.PàF	12−20	15−23	0	0−1	0	106−118	0−2
4 Oct	UCP–CESOP	w.PàF	80−88	w.PàF	13−17	16−20	0	0−1	0	108−116	0
Exit polls
24–29 Sep	Eurosondagem	w.PàF	89−95	w.PàF	19−21	10−15	0	0	0	102−108	0−1
26–27 Sep	UCP–CESOP	w.PàF	78−95	w.PàF	15−20	12−17	0	0−1	0	99−114	0−1
22–26 Sep	UCP–CESOP	w.PàF	89	w.PàF	16	8	0	0	1	117	0
21–25 Sep	UCP–CESOP	w.PàF	91	w.PàF	16	8	0	1	1	113	0
17–23 Sep	Eurosondagem	w.PàF	97−102	w.PàF	20−22	5−7	0	1	0−2	100−103	0
11–16 Sep	Eurosondagem	w.PàF	95−101	w.PàF	20−22	6−9	0	1	2	99−102	0
7–12 May	Eurosondagem	w.PàF	103	w.PàF	21	6	0	1	2	97	0
18–25 Feb	Eurosondagem ^[1]	w.PàF	100−105	w.PàF	18−21	4	0	1−2	2	98−103	0
18–25 Feb	Eurosondagem ^[2]	78−87	99−105	13−17	20−21	4−6	0	2−3	2−3		0
2015
5 Jun 2011	2011 Legislative Election	108	74	24	16	8	0				0

Notes

1 2 The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) will contest the election in a joint coalition called Portugal Ahead (Portugal à Frente).
1 2 3 4 This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Tracking poll.
1 2 Hypothesized scenario with António Costa as PS candidate.
1 2 Hypothesized scenario with António José Seguro as PS candidate.

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References

1 2 Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election in a coalition.
1 2 Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election separately.

External links

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[PSD/CDS–PP-1] 1 2 The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) will contest the election in a joint coalition called Portugal Ahead (Portugal à Frente).

[DataAverage-2] 1 2 3 4 This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.

[TrackingPoll-3] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Tracking poll.

[Scenario/PSCosta-6] 1 2 Hypothesized scenario with António Costa as PS candidate.

[Scenario/PSSeguro-7] 1 2 Hypothesized scenario with António José Seguro as PS candidate.

[Coalition-4] 1 2 Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election in a coalition.

[No_Coalition-5] 1 2 Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election separately.

[lower-alpha 1]

[lower-alpha 2]

[lower-alpha 3]

[1]

[2]

[lower-alpha 4]

[lower-alpha 5]

v t e Opinion polling for elections in Portugal
Parliamentary elections	2005 2009 2011 2015 2019 2022 Next
Presidential elections	2006 2011 2016 2021
Local elections	2009 2013 2017 2021