Opinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese local elections

In the run up to the 2009 Portuguese local elections, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in several municipalities across Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous local elections, held on 9 October 2005, to the day the next elections were held, on 11 October 2009.

Polling

Alcobaça

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDU	BE	CDS	IND	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	44.9 4	20.9 2	15.3 1	2.6 0	5.2 0	6.7 0	4.4	24.0
IPOM	24–25 Sep 2009	596	42.8	21.4	16.0	6.6	2.2	7.6	3.4	21.4
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	55.1 5	17.1 1	16.0 1	3.4 0	2.8 0	—	5.6	38.0

Aveiro

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD CDS	PS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	53.8 6	33.1 3	3.7 0	5.1 0	4.4	20.7
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	53.2– 58.8	29.8– 35.4	1.7– 4.3	3.4– 6.0	–	23.4
Gemeo/IPAM	24–27 Jun 2009	500	55	27	2	8	8	28
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	47.5 5	39.3 4	4.4 0	3.5 0	5.2	8.2

Barcelos

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	BE	CDU	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	43.4 5	44.5 6	4.7 0	1.8 0	1.5 0	4.2 0	1.1
IPOM	1–3 Oct 2009	789	47.0	36.5	4.1	7.6	3.0	1.8	10.5
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	47.2 5	41.8 4	2.9 0	1.9 0	1.4 0	4.9 0	5.4

Braga

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS	PSD CDS PPM	CDU	BE	O/U	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	44.7 6	42.0 5	6.3 0	4.0 0	2.9 0	2.7
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	45.2– 50.8	38.0– 43.6	3.4– 7.0	2.3– 4.9	–	7.2
IPOM	5–6 Oct 2009	794	30.0	31.5	4.2	3.1	20.1	1.5
Eurosondagem	1–2 Oct 2009	530	46.9	36.9	6.9	6.0	3.3	10.0
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	44.5 6	38.9 5	7.1 0	4.4 0	5.2 0	5.6

Faro

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS	PSD CDS MPT PPM	CDU	BE	IND	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	42.3 4	42.7 5	5.3 0	3.0 0	4.1 0	2.7	0.4
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	38.0– 43.6	41.0– 46.6	3.6– 6.2	1.9– 4.5	2.8– 5.4	–	3.0
Eurosondagem	6 Oct 2009	503	37.0	40.5	6.1	4.8	8.0	3.6	3.5
Intercampus	3–6 Oct 2009	600	38.5	36.2	7.9	6.7	6.7	4.0	2.3
Aximage	2–4 Oct 2009	500	39.1	41.1	6.1	2.6	4.9	2.2	2.0
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	41.1 4	39.8 3 [a]	8.9 0	4.6 0	—	5.6 0	1.3

Horta

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS	PSD	CDU	CDS	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	45.2 4	40.6 3	9.2 0	1.5 0	1.2 0	2.3	4.6
Eurosondagem	1–2 Oct 2009	505	40.0 3	36.9 3	15.3 1	2.2 0	3.6 0	2.0	3.1
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	38.1 3	30.0 2	26.7 2	2.0 0	1.0 0	2.0 0	8.1

Leiria

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	BE	CDU	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	37.6 5	44.9 5	7.7 1	3.4 0	2.4 0	4.1	7.3
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	41.1– 46.7	36.5– 42.1	7.0– 10.6	1.4– 4.0	0.6– 3.2	–	4.6
IPOM	29–30 Sep 2009	596	49.9	40.7	4.0	2.6	1.1	1.8	9.2
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	42.6 4	35.5 4	9.3 1	3.4 0	2.5 0	6.8	7.1

Lisbon

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD CDS MPT PPM	PS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	38.7 7	44.0 9	8.1 1	4.6 0	4.6 0	5.3
UCP–CESOP	11 Oct 2009	?	34.0– 38.0 6/7	44.0– 48.0 8/9	8.5– 10.5 1/2	3.0– 5.0 0/1	–	10.0
Eurosondagem	11 Oct 2009	?	36.9– 41.1	41.2– 45.4	6.6– 8.8	3.9– 6.1	–	4.3
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	34.7– 40.3	42.8– 48.4	7.1– 10.7	3.0– 5.6	–	8.1
Aximage	6–8 Oct 2009	802	38.4	44.4	6.4	6.0	4.8	6.0
Marktest	5–7 Oct 2009	510	37.9	45.0	7.3	5.4	4.4	7.1
UCP–CESOP	3–6 Oct 2009	2,221	33	45	9	8	5	12
Eurosondagem	1–6 Oct 2009	1,022	36.9	41.9	8.4	8.0	4.8	5.0
Intercampus	28–30 Sep 2009	800	33.1	41.4	10.4	8.3	6.8	8.3
Marktest	31 Aug–2 Sep 2009	500	32.7	43.8	7.0	9.2	7.3	8.3
UCP–CESOP	28 Jun–4 Jul 2009	716	37	38	7	9	9	1
2007 by-election	15 Jul 2007	—	20.5 3 [b]	29.5 6	9.5 2	6.8 1	33.8 5	9.0
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	48.4 9 [a]	26.6 5	11.4 2	7.9 1	5.7 0	21.8

Loulé

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	BE	CDU	CDS	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	57.0 6	32.6 3	2.9 0	1.9 0	2.6 0	2.9	24.4
IPOM	3–4 Oct 2009	695	60.5	16.2	0.9	0.4	0.4	21.6	9.2
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	51.4 4	37.4 3	2.7 0	2.2 0	1.6 0	4.7	14.0

Lousada

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS	PSD CDS	CDU	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	57.7 4	37.6 3	2.9 0	1.8	20.1
Gemeo/IPAM	7–8 Set 2009	400	65	28	1	6	37
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	61.4 5	33.2 2	3.0 0	2.5	28.2

Mangualde

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	CDU	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	35.9 3	58.6 4	2.4 0	1.1 0	2.0	22.7
Domp	24–30 Sep 2009	778	29.1 2	57.3 5	6.0 0	5.4 0	2.2	28.2
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	47.8 4	44.8 3	2.7 0	1.4 0	3.3 0	3.0

Matosinhos

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS	PSD CDS	CDU	BE	NM	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	42.3 5	17.1 2	4.4 0	2.7 0	30.7 4	2.8 0	11.6
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	38.0– 43.6	11.9– 16.5	2.6– 5.2	1.4– 4.0	32.2– 37.8	–	5.8
Aximage	4–6 Oct 2009	500	43.0	19.1	4.1	6.7	23.5	3.6	19.5
Eurosondagem	4–5 Oct 2009	534	35.3	21.1	6.0	4.7	30.2	2.7	5.1
UCP–CESOP	2–4 Oct 2009	1,257	39	22	4	4	27	4	12
IPOM	30 Jun–1 Jul 2009	796	32.6	20.9	4.5	5.2	34.5	2.2	1.9
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	47.3 6	30.9 4	8.6 1	7.0 0	—	6.2 0	16.4

Oeiras

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	IM	PSD CDS PPM	PS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	41.5 5	16.4 2	25.8 3	7.3 1	3.9 4	5.1 0	15.7
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	40.0– 45.6	14.2– 18.8	23.3– 28.9	5.0– 8.6	2.4– 5.0	–	16.7
UCP–CESOP	2–5 Oct 2009	1,307	42	16	25	7	6	4	17
Eurosondagem	29–30 Sep 2009	548	41.1	18.8	23.1	8.3	5.2	3.5	18.0
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	34.1 4	32.1 4 [a]	15.6 2	7.9 1	4.8 0	5.5 0	2.0

Oliveira do Bairro

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	CDS	PS	CDU	O/U	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	53.6 4	31.5 2	10.7 1	1.2 0	3.0	22.1
Gemeo/IPAM	16–18 Sep 2009	400	23	11	2	1	63	12
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	44.2 4	41.2 3	9.0 0	1.7 0	3.9	3.0

Paços de Ferreira

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	CDU	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	52.4 4	41.6 3	2.4 0	1.9 0	1.7	10.8
Gemeo/IPAM	14–15 Sep 2009	400	59	31	3	2	5	28
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	59.0 5	29.7 2	5.5 0	2.8 0	3.0	29.3

Paredes

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	57.8 6	26.5 3	8.5 0	3.3 0	1.5 0	2.4	31.3
Gemeo/IPAM	16–17 Sep 2009	400	59	21	13	2	2	3	38
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	50.9 5	30.3 3	9.2 1	4.2 0	1.9 0	3.4	20.6

Penafiel

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD CDS	PS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	64.2 6	29.7 3	3.0 0	1.3 0	1.8	34.5
Gemeo/IPAM	8–9 Sep 2009	400	66	28	2	1	3	38
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	62.0 6	30.1 3	3.8 0	1.4 0	2.7	31.9

Porto

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD CDS	PS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	47.5 7	34.7 5	9.8 1	5.0 0	3.0 0	12.8
UCP–CESOP	11 Oct 2009	?	45.0–49.0 6/7	33.0–37.0 5/6	8.5–10.5 0/1	4.0–6.0 0	–	12.0
Eurosondagem	11 Oct 2009	?	43.3– 47.1 6/7	35.5– 39.9 5/6	7.9– 10.1 0/1	3.9– 5.7 0	–	7.2– 7.8
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	44.9– 50.5	31.3– 36.8	7.8– 11.4	3.3– 6.9	–	13.6– 13.7
Marktest	2–7 Oct 2009	400	51.0	31.0	7.8	5.7	4.7	20.0
UCP–CESOP	2–5 Oct 2009	2,571	47	33	9	7	4	14
Aximage	2–4 Oct 2009	500	46.4	34.3	9.7	5.8	3.8	12.1
Eurosondagem	28–30 Sep 2009	736	48.0	33.3	9.4	5.8	3.5	14.7
Intercampus	28–30 Sep 2009	800	44.4	35.9	8.2	7.9	3.6	8.5
Marktest	3–6 Sep 2009	399	44.7	31.1	9.6	7.8	6.8	13.6
IPOM	16–19 Jun 2009	797	55.2	23.5	9.2	8.1	4.1	31.7
UCP–CESOP	8–9 Jun 2009	1,002	54	23	4	7	12	31
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	46.2 7	36.1 5	9.0 1	4.2 0	4.5 0	10.1

Santa Cruz

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDU	JPP	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	41.9 3	13.0 1	5.0 0	32.0 3	8.1 0	9.9
Eurosondagem	2 Oct 2009	310	51.1	28.2	4.9	10.2	5.6	21.4
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	46.8 4	40.4 3	3.3 0	—	9.6 0	6.4

Santa Maria da Feira

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	48.1 6	40.6 5	3.5 0	2.5 0	2.6 0	2.7	7.5
GTriplo	15–16 Sep 2009	502	30.1	31.7	2.2	2.0	3.2	30.8	1.6
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	49.0 6	39.5 5	3.1 0	2.6 0	2.0 0	3.8	9.5

Santarém

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDU	BE	CDS	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	64.2 7	21.2 2	5.7 0	2.4 0	3.6 0	2.9	43.0
Intercampus	3–6 Oct 2009	600	53.2	27.2	8.6	4.2	4.4	2.4	26.0
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	41.4 4	37.8 4	12.2 1	2.5 0	2.3 0	3.8	3.6

São João da Madeira

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	56.0 5	26.4 2	7.2 0	5.8 0	2.7 0	2.1	29.6
Domp	21–26 Sep 2009	604	66.7 6	15.3 1	7.4 0	4.7 0	3.3 0	2.6	51.4
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	56.3 5	19.8 1	12.7 1	5.0 0	2.6 0	3.6	36.5

Setúbal

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	PSD	PS	BE	CDS	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	38.8 5	14.5 1	29.8 3	6.1 0	5.8 0	5.0 0	9.0
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	40.3– 45.9	11.8– 13.4	23.1– 28.7	4.3– 7.9	5.1– 8.7	–	17.2
Eurosondagem	28–29 Sep 2009	510	37.9	16.2	29.4	7.8	5.2	3.5	8.5
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	40.4 4	25.4 3	21.2 2	5.2 0	1.5 0	6.3 0	15.0

Trofa

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS	CDU	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	43.4 3	46.2 4	5.7 0	2.4 0	2.3	2.8
IPOM	28 Aug–1 Sep 2009	796	54.4	31.4	5.8	2.7	5.8	23.0
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	48.4 4	37.1 3	6.9 0	3.6 0	4.1 0	11.3

Valongo

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD CDS	PS	CDU	BE	IND	O/U	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	34.3 4	27.2 3	4.6 0	2.7 0	22.9 2	8.3 0	7.1
IPOM	20–22 Jul 2009	799	26.2	10.3	1.8	1.5	9.4	50.8	15.9
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	44.2 5 [c]	40.6 4	6.6 0	3.9 0	—	4.7	3.6

Viana do Castelo

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS	PSD CDS	CDU	BE	O	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	50.2 4	35.1 3	6.6 0	4.8 0	3.3	15.1
Intercampus	11 Oct 2009	?	49.8– 55.4	30.4– 36.0	5.2– 8.8	3.5– 6.1	–	19.4
Intercampus	3–6 Oct 2009	600	48.9	40.5	5.5	3.9	1.2	8.4
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	49.0 6	35.6 3 [a]	5.5 0	3.1 0	6.8 0	13.4

Vila Nova de Gaia

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PSD CDS	PS	CDU	BE	O/U	Lead
2009 local election	11 Oct 2009	—	62.0 8	25.3 3	6.3 0	3.2 0	3.2 0	36.7
IPOM	10–15 Jul 2009	800	62.1	20.5	8.7	5.2	3.6	41.6
2005 local election	9 Oct 2005	—	55.0 7	28.0 3	8.3 1	3.8 0	4.9 0	27.0

Notes

1. Sum of the PSD and CDS separate results in 2005.
2. Sum of the PSD and CDS separate results in 2007.
3. In the 2005 elections, the PSD ran alone and CDS didn't present a candidacy.

External links

• ERC - Official publication of polls
• Marktest Polls local elections 2009
• 2009 local election results
• 2005 local election results