Opinion polling for the 2022 Portuguese legislative election

Last updated

In the run up to the 2022 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2019 Portuguese legislative election, held on 6 October, to the day the next election was held on 30 January.

Contents

Nationwide polling

Graphical summary

Local Regression of polls conducted since the election Opinion polls Portugal 2022.svg
Local Regression of polls conducted since the election

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

  Exit poll

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout Letras PS (Portugal).png PSD Logo Simples.png LeftBloc.svg Logo of the Unitary Democratic Coalition.svg Cds simbolo 2.png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png Logo Chega!.svg Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png Partido LIVRE logo.png OLead
2022 legislative election 30 Jan 202251.541.4
120
29.1
77
4.4
5
4.3
6
1.6
0
1.6
1
7.2
12
4.9
8
1.3
1
4.2
0
12.3
UCP–CESOP 30 Jan 202227,61546–5137–42
102/116
30–35
84/94
3–6
3/7
3–5
3/7
1–3
0/2
1–3
0/2
5–8
7/13
4–7
5/9
1–3
1/2
7
ICS/ISCTE–GFK/Metris 30 Jan 202218,36151–5537.4–
41.4

106/118
26.9–
30.9
75/85
3.0–
6.0
4/10
3.0–
6.0
3/9
0.6–
2.6
1/3
0.5–
3.1
1/3
5.0–
8.0
8/14
4.7–
7.7
9/15
0.4–
2.4
1/2
3.5–
6.5
0
10.5
Intercampus 30 Jan 202223,848?36.6–
42.6

108/120
26.7–
32.7
77/89
2.4–
6.4
4/10
2.5–
6.5
3/9
0.1–
3.6
0/3
0.2–
3.7
0/4
3.8–
7.8
6/12
3.5–
7.5
6/12
0.2–
2.6
0/2
9.9
Pitagórica 30 Jan 202233,15756–6037.5–
42.5

100/117
26.7–
31.7
75/95
3.0–
7.0
4/8
2.5–
6.5
4/8
0.9–
2.9
1/2
0.8–
2.8
1/2
4.5–
8.5
6/13
4.5–
8.5
7/11
0.7–
3.7
0/1
10.8
Pitagórica [a] 24–28 Jan 2022760?36.6
98/113
32.9
82/100
5.1
5/13
5.2
5/14
1.4
1/5
1.2
1/2
5.4
2/8
5.2
2/5
1.7
1/3
5.4
3.7
Pitagórica [a] 23–26 Jan 2022608?36.731.36.15.72.11.05.14.31.86.15.4
CESOP–UCP 19–26 Jan 20222,192?36
95/105
33
89/99
6
6/13
5
4/10
2
0/2
2
1/2
6
7/9
6
5/10
2
1/2
2
0
3
Pitagórica [a] 22–25 Jan 2022608?36.630.96.74.21.81.06.73.81.66.75.7
Pitagórica [a] 21–24 Jan 2022608?36.731.45.74.31.41.87.53.21.06.95.3
ICS/ISCTE 18–24 Jan 20221,003?35
92/106
33
87/101
5
4/10
6
6/12
1
0/1
2
1/3
6
6/12
6
7/13
1
1
5
0
2
Pitagórica [a] 20–23 Jan 2022608?35.331.46.14.91.61.66.94.70.86.53.9
Pitagórica [a] 19–22 Jan 2022608?34.133.55.55.10.81.66.65.31.26.20.6
Pitagórica [a] 18–21 Jan 2022608?33.534.55.74.70.81.66.55.71.25.91.0
Aximage 16–21 Jan 2022965?33.834.46.64.51.63.28.02.81.43.70.6
Pitagórica [a] 17–20 Jan 2022608?34.633.54.94.51.21.66.36.31.65.31.1
Pitagórica [a] 16–19 Jan 2022608?36.532.95.05.01.01.96.35.21.54.73.6
Pitagórica [a] 15–18 Jan 2022608?38.730.45.15.31.11.77.24.71.14.78.3
CESOP–UCP 12–18 Jan 20221,456?37
99/110
33
89/100
5
5/8
5
5/9
2
0/2
2
1/2
6
7/9
5
4/6
2
1/2
34
Metris [b] 11–18 Jan 2022812?39.232.65.05.41.01.16.84.40.63.96.6
Pitagórica [a] 14–17 Jan 2022608?39.830.44.55.81.31.77.54.31.53.29.4
Pitagórica [a] 13–16 Jan 2022608?40.128.85.95.90.61.58.05.01.32.911.3
Pitagórica [a] 12–15 Jan 2022608?39.629.66.05.10.91.78.14.71.52.810.0
Pitagórica [a] 11–14 Jan 2022608?38.829.36.84.61.31.97.84.91.53.19.5
Pitagórica [a] 10–13 Jan 2022608?38.929.76.24.61.72.16.95.41.23.39.2
Aximage 6–12 Jan 2022807?38.128.57.44.81.82.19.03.74.69.6
CESOP–UCP 6–10 Jan 20221,246?39
104/113
30
81/89
6
8/12
5
4/10
2
0/2
3
2/4
6
6/12
4
3/7
2
1
39
Intercampus [c] 4–10 Jan 2022615?35.329.38.56.01.14.37.15.60.62.26.0
Pitagórica 30 Dec 2021–9 Jan 2022600?39.630.06.45.11.51.85.75.14.89.6
CESOP–UCP 28 Dec 2021–5 Jan 20221,238?3832662255136
ICS/ISCTE 10–20 Dec 2021901?383156227457
Intercampus [d] 7–14 Dec 2021603?35.526.86.64.51.63.58.96.40.85.38.7
Aximage 9–13 Dec 202181055.135.433.27.35.11.32.56.23.75.32.2
Pitagórica 7–12 Dec 2021625?37.031.74.95.91.03.06.35.94.35.3
Pitagórica 10–15 Nov 2021625?38.232.15.45.20.81.97.14.25.16.1
Intercampus 5–11 Nov 2021612?39.028.17.75.32.04.46.34.20.22.810.9
CESOP–UCP 29 Oct–4 Nov 2021878?393075235549
ICS/ISCTE 21 Oct–1 Nov 2021800?40265612102814
Aximage 28–31 Oct 2021803?38.524.48.84.62.02.87.74.76.414.1
Eurosondagem 18–21 Oct 20211,028?38.127.55.15.62.52.89.25.53.710.6
2021 local elections 26 Sep 202153.637.1
(105)
32.1
(93)
2.9
(4)
8.2
(19)
1.9
(1)
1.1
(1)
4.2
(5)
1.3
(1)
0.5
(1)
10.7
(0)
5.0
Eurosondagem 20–23 Sep 20211,032?41.527.25.05.52.02.68.95.22.114.3
Intercampus 14–23 Sep 2021609?36.824.69.75.51.43.38.65.50.44.212.2
Pitagórica 10–19 Sep 2021609?41.325.17.15.52.01.87.14.70.45.016.2
Intercampus 13–20 Aug 2021612?34.725.19.15.41.63.57.56.10.26.89.6
Eurosondagem 16–19 Aug 20211,052?41.327.35.66.02.12.59.04.51.714.0
Eurosondagem 26–29 Jul 20211,025?41.127.34.85.92.12.28.83.34.513.8
Intercampus 7–16 Jul 2021607?34.823.49.06.72.84.59.03.10.66.111.4
Aximage 10–12 Jul 2021763?37.625.27.84.80.94.67.75.55.912.4
Eurosondagem 5–8 Jul 20211,022?40.827.35.25.22.22.19.02.55.713.5
Intercampus 8–16 Jun 2021608?34.622.48.96.03.15.210.16.40.62.712.2
Eurosondagem 31 May–3 Jun 20211,021?40.027.25.55.02.52.28.42.76.512.8
Aximage 26–30 May 2021796?38.924.08.05.71.43.77.05.20.35.814.9
Domp [e] 9 Apr–19 May 20211,156?35.121.78.64.42.45.310.83.60.67.613.4
Eurosondagem 10–13 May 20211,008?39.427.46.65.02.52.48.02.26.512.0
Intercampus 5–11 May 2021611?37.921.78.35.52.94.88.34.21.35.116.2
CESOP–UCP 3–7 May 20211,123?3828853365410
Aximage 22–25 Apr 202183058.838.226.19.25.70.42.77.24.90.84.812.1
Intercampus 7–13 Apr 2021609?36.223.39.45.23.14.89.45.00.43.212.9
ICS/ISCTE 5–13 Apr 2021802?372997126188
Eurosondagem 5–8 Apr 20211,020?39.627.86.25.22.02.17.72.56.911.8
Aximage 24–27 Mar 202183061.039.723.68.66.01.13.28.54.80.83.616.1
Intercampus 4–10 Mar 2021615?37.623.68.35.52.32.59.05.30.75.214.0
Eurosondagem 1–4 Mar 20211,010?39.528.27.04.52.22.57.52.16.511.3
Aximage 17–20 Feb 202182257.437.626.57.75.80.84.06.55.71.34.111.1
Intercampus 8–13 Feb 2021609?37.624.78.25.82.73.17.35.60.74.312.9
Eurosondagem 8–11 Feb 20211,022?39.327.26.94.82.52.07.33.07.012.1
CESOP–UCP 24 Jan 20214,637?35238622971712
Pitagórica 7–18 Jan 2021629?42.625.75.45.41.62.36.85.05.416.9
Aximage 9–15 Jan 20211,18353.739.926.67.25.00.83.57.53.50.65.513.3
CESOP–UCP 11–14 Jan 20212,001?3928762285311
Eurosondagem 11–14 Jan 20211,021?39.028.06.55.32.12.25.51.310.111.0
Pitagórica 29 Dec 2020–10 Jan 2021629?41.428.07.15.11.22.25.94.15.113.4
Intercampus 4–7 Jan 2021603?38.024.19.15.72.33.69.13.80.24.113.9
Pitagórica 22 Dec 2020–3 Jan 2021629?40.926.37.34.11.41.88.42.80.26.914.6
Pitagórica 17–27 Dec 2020629?39.727.95.64.12.31.79.13.36.211.8
Aximage 19–22 Dec 202081255.038.525.48.55.70.34.77.73.50.55.213.1
Pitagórica 17–20 Dec 2020629?40.328.55.55.31.82.28.42.45.511.8
Intercampus 14–18 Dec 2020603?38.023.67.35.43.23.47.74.50.96.014.4
Pitagórica 10–13 Dec 2020629?41.926.06.75.41.92.38.31.56.015.9
CESOP–UCP 4–11 Dec 20201,315?373077336527
Eurosondagem 7–10 Dec 20201,020?38.829.47.25.32.52.05.21.18.59.4
Aximage 23–26 Nov 202064758.437.223.97.95.81.06.57.52.20.67.413.3
ICS/ISCTE 11–25 Nov 2020802?3925872271914
Intercampus 9–16 Nov 2020622?37.124.27.74.94.15.37.33.31.84.412.9
Eurosondagem 2–5 Nov 20201,011?38.329.78.35.82.72.25.01.07.08.6
Aximage 22–26 Oct 202069459.135.527.010.05.71.25.25.43.20.46.48.5
Intercampus 6–11 Oct 2020618?37.524.811.04.34.14.17.72.40.43.712.7
Eurosondagem 5–8 Oct 20201,010?38.829.08.15.53.32.04.81.37.29.8
ICS/ISCTE 14–24 Sep 2020801?3727862472610
Aximage 12–15 Sep 202060355.137.623.98.35.61.14.86.82.61.28.113.7
Eurosondagem 7–10 Sep 20201,022?38.528.28.35.82.53.34.51.07.910.3
Intercampus 4–9 Sep 2020614?37.424.39.95.14.34.17.42.10.45.013.1
Intercampus 6–11 Aug 2020601?39.624.88.56.14.43.27.92.80.02.714.8
CESOP–UCP 13–18 Jul 20201,482?3926763373613
Intercampus 8–13 Jul 2020620?39.023.910.46.24.83.06.22.80.43.215.1
Aximage 5–8 Jul 202062455.940.426.78.56.02.12.65.22.10.16.313.7
Eurosondagem 29 Jun–2 Jul 20201,025?38.429.38.46.02.22.84.41.17.49.1
Intercampus 9–13 Jun 2020610?40.024.19.86.24.13.16.81.90.83.215.9
Aximage 5–8 Jun 202060559.239.925.88.04.91.24.35.31.40.29.014.1
Eurosondagem 1–4 Jun 20201,021?38.029.38.05.32.73.04.11.18.58.7
Pitagórica 16–24 May 2020802?44.824.16.15.82.83.36.41.65.120.7
Eurosondagem 17–20 May 20202,120?37.930.08.15.23.22.24.31.27.97.9
Intercampus 5–9 May 2020620?40.323.39.05.93.63.66.83.20.73.617.0
Eurosondagem 4–7 May 20201,005?37.729.48.35.53.02.54.01.28.48.3
Pitagórica 15–26 Apr 2020605?41.923.18.15.62.62.67.32.66.218.8
Intercampus 9–14 Apr 2020623?35.423.311.95.83.94.97.82.40.73.912.1
Eurosondagem 29 Mar–2 Apr 20201,008?37.527.29.06.02.82.43.61.210.310.3
Pitagórica 13–21 Mar 2020605?41.725.28.65.42.93.18.12.03.116.5
Intercampus 13–19 Mar 2020611?31.421.914.56.13.65.98.62.30.25.59.5
Eurosondagem 1–5 Mar 20201,011?37.327.48.86.32.92.83.31.110.19.9
Aximage 14–18 Feb 202083956.135.126.17.75.42.14.14.32.50.712.09.0
Intercampus 11–17 Feb 2020614?31.123.813.26.33.55.46.92.90.86.17.3
Eurosondagem 2–6 Feb 20201,020?37.426.79.06.53.33.12.51.10.59.910.7
ICS/ISCTE 22 Jan–5 Feb 2020800?3328984362165
Intercampus 19–24 Jan 2020619?32.825.811.96.21.96.06.22.31.75.27.0
Eurosondagem 5–9 Jan 20201,010?37.226.59.66.63.53.62.21.30.68.910.7
Intercampus 12–17 Dec 2019606?33.925.710.76.33.96.15.72.41.14.28.2
Eurosondagem 8–12 Dec 20191,019?37.126.99.57.13.63.51.91.10.68.710.2
Intercampus 20–26 Nov 2019604?34.924.910.88.12.94.84.82.92.73.210.0
Eurosondagem 17–21 Nov 20191,011?36.927.110.16.94.03.311.79.8
Aximage 8–11 Nov 2019639?37.427.110.46.24.03.23.01.30.96.510.3
Intercampus 22–28 Oct 2019604?35.624.810.76.94.45.32.50.82.76.310.8
2019 legislative election 6 Oct 201948.636.3
108
27.8
79
9.5
19
6.3
12
4.2
5
3.3
4
1.3
1
1.3
1
1.1
1
8.8
0
8.5

Hypothetical scenarios

Hypothetical polling

Paulo Rangel as PSD leader

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout Letras PS (Portugal).png MERCOSUL - Representacao Brasileira no Parlamento do Mercosul (22371092998) (cropped).jpg LeftBloc.svg Logo of the Unitary Democratic Coalition.svg Cds simbolo 2.png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png Logo Chega!.svg Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png Partido LIVRE logo.png OLead
Pitagórica 10–15 Nov 2021625?39.623.95.75.52.42.08.45.17.415.7

Constituency polling

Madeira

Unlike the rest of the country, in Madeira, the PSD and CDS–PP contested the election under a coalition called Madeira First. [1]

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout PSD Logo Simples.png Cds simbolo 2.png Letras PS (Portugal).png
Logo Juntos pelo Povo.png
LeftBloc.svg Simbolo CDU (PCP-PEV) (Letras).png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png Logo Chega!.svg OLead
2022 legislative election 30 Jan 202250.339.8
3
31.5
3
6.9
0
3.2
0
2.0
0
1.6
0
3.3
0
6.1
0
5.6
0
8.3
Intercampus 21–25 Jan 2022603?47.7
4
33.3
2
2.9
0
3.6
0
2.3
0
10.2
0
14.4
2019 legislative election 6 Oct 201950.337.2
3
6.1
0
33.4
3
5.5
0
5.2
0
2.1
0
1.8
0
0.7
0
0.7
0
7.3
0
3.8

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

António Costa vs Rui Rio

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork date Antonio Costa 2014 (cropped) 2.jpg Rui Rio (cropped).jpg NBoth/
O
NOLead
CESOP–UCP 19–26 Jan 202248361412
CESOP–UCP 12–18 Jan 202250351515
Aximage 6–12 Jan 202247211651226
CESOP–UCP 6–10 Jan 202249351614
CESOP–UCP 28 Dec 2021–5 Jan 202252331519
Aximage 9–13 Dec 20214621195925
Aximage 28–31 Oct 202144.118.629.41.46.525.5
Aximage 10–12 Jul 20214522281423
Aximage 26–30 May 20215215242737
Aximage 22–25 Apr 20215517202638
Aximage 24–27 Mar 20215418184636
Aximage 17–20 Feb 20215420193434
Aximage 19–22 Dec 20205319222434
Aximage 23–26 Nov 20205018224732
Aximage 22–26 Oct 20204717234930
Aximage 12–15 Sep 20204817254631
Aximage 5–8 Jul 20205517195538
Aximage 5–8 Jun 202057.318.217.33.24.039.1
Aximage 7–10 Mar 202041.121.330.81.94.919.8
Aximage 14–18 Feb 202043.821.824.73.95.822.0
Aximage 9–12 Jan 202043.619.527.52.86.624.1

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Graphical summary

Polling

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample size António Costa's cabinet
ApproveDisapproveNeitherNo opinionNet
ICS/ISCTE 10–20 Dec 20219015239913
ICS/ISCTE 21 Oct–1 Nov 2021800444884
Aximage 28–31 Oct 2021803344518311
Eurosondagem 20–23 Sep 20211,03232.727.939.44.8
Intercampus 14–23 Sep 202160942.728.527.41.314.2
Intercampus 13–20 Aug 202161236.129.932.21.83.9
Eurosondagem 16–19 Aug 20211,05230.125.544.44.6
Eurosondagem 26–29 Jul 20211,02525.538.635.913.1
CESOP–UCP 9–15 Jul 20211,202162952323
Aximage 10–12 Jul 202176337332824
Eurosondagem 5–8 Jul 20211,02248.047.05.01.0
Aximage 26–30 May 2021796442922515
Eurosondagem 10–13 May 20211,00836.022.042.012.0
Intercampus 5–11 May 202161143.628.526.21.615.1
Aximage 22–25 Apr 2021830552222133
Intercampus 7–13 Apr 202160944.329.125.11.515.2
ICS/ISCTE 5–13 Apr 20218025538717
Eurosondagem 5–8 Apr 20211,02027.317.755.09.6
Aximage 24–27 Mar 2021830552419231
Intercampus 4–10 Mar 202161542.623.232.22.010.4
Eurosondagem 1–4 Mar 20211,01021.016.262.84.8
Aximage 17–20 Feb 2021822503315217
Intercampus 8–13 Feb 202160938.832.926.12.35.9
Eurosondagem 7–11 Feb 20211,02221.09.969.111.1
Eurosondagem 11–14 Jan 20211,02142.028.729.313.3
Intercampus 4–7 Jan 202160349.622.426.71.322.9
Aximage 19–22 Dec 2020812473119316
Intercampus 14–18 Dec 202060344.228.924.72.215.3
Eurosondagem 7–10 Dec 20201,02042.029.928.112.1
Aximage 23–26 Nov 2020647513312418
ICS/ISCTE 11–25 Nov 2020802514279
Intercampus 9–16 Nov 202062245.529.124.80.616.4
Eurosondagem 2–5 Nov 20201,01141.828.230.013.6
Aximage 22–26 Oct 2020694453019615
Intercampus 6–11 Oct 202061847.323.727.91.119.4
Eurosondagem 5–8 Oct 20201,01039.625.235.214.4
ICS/ISCTE 14–24 Sep 2020801494386
Aximage 12–15 Sep 2020603483514413
Eurosondagem 7–10 Sep 20201,02240.025.035.015.0
Intercampus 4–9 Sep 202061450.421.026.52.123.9
Intercampus 6–11 Aug 202060148.620.828.32.320.3
CESOP–UCP 13–18 Jul 20201,4827321652
Intercampus 9–13 Jul 202062049.317.830.82.118.5
Aximage 5–8 Jul 2020624572613431
Eurosondagem 29 Jun–2 Jul 20201,02541.024.534.516.5
Intercampus 9–13 Jun 202061059.515.424.11.035.4
Eurosondagem 1–4 Jun 20201,02142.525.032.517.5
Pitagórica 16–24 May 2020802531037016
Intercampus 6–9 May 202062062.911.523.71.939.2
Eurosondagem 4–7 May 20201,00543.325.231.518.1
Pitagórica 15–26 Apr 202060548114107
Intercampus 9–14 Apr 202062367.410.720.11.847.3
Eurosondagem 29 Mar–2 Apr 20201,00844.227.228.617.0
Pitagórica 13–21 Mar 2020605332047014
Intercampus 13–19 Mar 202061147.925.225.72.122.2
Eurosondagem 1–5 Mar 20201,01142.526.930.615.6
Intercampus 11–17 Feb 202061431.633.432.92.10.5
Eurosondagem 2–6 Feb 20201,02043.326.930.016.4
ICS/ISCTE 22 Jan–5 Feb 20208005734923
Intercampus 19–24 Jan 202061935.131.631.31.93.5
Eurosondagem 5–9 Jan 20201,01042.926.830.316.1
Intercampus 12–17 Dec 201960633.734.528.73.10.8
Eurosondagem 8–12 Dec 20191,01943.426.630.016.8
Intercampus 20–26 Nov 201960434.330.331.04.53.3
Eurosondagem 17–21 Nov 20191,01143.726.829.516.9
Intercampus 22–28 Oct 201960436.728.131.63.55.1

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tracking Poll
  2. Results presented here exclude undecideds/refuse to answer or vote (24.1%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 29.8%; PSD: 24.8%; CHEGA: 5.2%; CDU: 4.1%; BE: 3.8%; IL: 3.3%; PAN: 0.9%; CDS-PP: 0.7%; Livre: 0.5%; Others/Invalid: 3.0%.
  3. Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.8%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 29.0%; PSD: 24.1%; BE: 7.0%; CHEGA: 5.8%; CDU: 4.9%; IL: 4.6%; PAN: 3.5%; CDS-PP: 0.9%; Livre: 0.5%; Others/Invalid: 1.9%.
  4. Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.1%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 29.4%; PSD: 22.2%; CHEGA: 7.4%; BE: 5.5%; IL: 5.3%; CDU: 3.7%; PAN: 2.9%; CDS-PP: 1.3%; Livre: 0.7%; Others/Invalid: 4.4%.
  5. Results presented here exclude undecideds, non voters and non responsive (14.3% + 5.7% + 10.2%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 24.5%; PSD: 15.1%; CHEGA: 7.5%; BE: 6.0%; PAN: 3.7%; CDU: 3.1%; IL: 2.5%; CDS-PP: 1.6%; Livre: 0.4%; Others/Invalid: 5.3%.

References

  1. "Três a três na Madeira, mas com nova vitória do PSD/CDS". Público (in Portuguese). 2022-01-30. Retrieved 2025-07-28.