Opinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese presidential election

Last updated August 24, 2025

In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Graphical summary

Polling

Exit poll

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Rebelo de Sousa	Maria de Belém	Sampaio da Nóvoa	Henrique Neto	Edgar Silva	Marisa Matias	Paulo de Morais	Cândido Ferreira	Vitorino Silva	Jorge Sequeira	Oth/ Und	Lead
			PSD CDS	Ind.	Ind.	Ind.	PCP	BE	Ind.	Ind.	Ind.	Ind.


Election results	24 Jan 2016	48.7	52.0	4.2	22.9	0.8	3.9	10.1	2.2	0.2	3.2	0.3	—	29.1

UCP–CESOP	24 Jan 2016	31,018	49–54	3–5	22–25	0–2	3–5	9–11	1–3	0–1	2–4	0–1	—	27– 29
Eurosondagem	24 Jan 2016	43,678	50.1–54.9	3.3–4.8	21.1–24.8	0.7–1.4	3.0–4.1	8.8–11.3	1.4–2.5	0.3–0.7	2.6–3.7	0.3–0.7	—	29.0– 30.1
Intercampus	24 Jan 2016	15,481	50.9–55.7	2.9–5.9	19.3–23.3	—	1.9–4.9	8.8–12.4	—	—	—	—	5.5–8.5	31.6– 32.4
Aximage	16–20 Jan 2016	1,301	51.5	9.0	22.6	0.8	5.2	6.6	2.3	0.1	1.8	0.1	—	28.9
Intercampus	14–20 Jan 2016	1,043	51.8	10.1	16.9	2.3	4.6	7.9	2.9	0.5	2.5	0.6	—	34.9
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jan 2016	2,025	55.0	13.3	19.0	1.1	3.7	5.3	2.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	—	36.0
UCP–CESOP	16–17 Jan 2016	3,340	52	8	22	1	3	8	3	0.5	2	0.5	—	30
Consulmark2	11–14 Jan 2016	1,004	53.0	10.5	23.4	1.0	2.5	4.0	3.8	0.1	1.5	0.3	—	29.6
Eurosondagem	7–13 Jan 2016	1,516	54.8	16.3	16.8	1.1	4.0	4.8	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.2	—	29.6
Aximage	2–5 Jan 2016	602	52.9	11.8	16.9	1.0	2.9	2.8	2.9	—	—	—	8.8	36.0
Eurosondagem	16–21 Dec 2015	1,515	52.5	18.1	16.9	1.3	4.7	4.8	1.7	—	—	—	—	34.4
UCP–CESOP	5–6 Dec 2015	1,183	62	14	15	1	3	3	1	—	—	—	1	47
Aximage	28 Nov–2 Dec 2015	605	54.6	13.4	13.2	0.4	1.9	2.4	1.1	—	—	—	13.0	41.2
Eurosondagem	13–18 Nov 2015	1,510	48.0	18.9	16.7	2.2	5.2	6.9	1.1	—	—	—	1.0	29.1
Aximage	31 Oct–4 Nov 2015	603	56.9	13.1	15.3	—	2.1	—	—	—	—	—	12.9	41.6
Aximage	26 Sep–1 Oct 2015	1,387	29.7	14.7	13.0	1.1	10.3 (JS)	—	—	—	—	—	31.2^[1]	8.2
Intercampus	23–30 Sep 2015	1,013	49.3	17.0	10.1	1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2^[2]	32.3

Second round

Hypothetical polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Rebelo de Sousa	Rui Rio	Santana Lopes	Durão Barroso	António Guterres	António Vitorino	Carvalho da Silva	Sampaio da Nóvoa	Maria de Belém	Jaime Gama
			PSD	PSD	PSD	PSD	PS	PS	Ind.	Ind.	PS	PS

Intercampus	14–20 Jan 2016	1,043	68.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	31.6	—
Intercampus	14–20 Jan 2016	1,043	67.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	33.0	—	—
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jan 2016	2,025	65.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	34.8	—
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jan 2016	2,025	64.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	35.2	—	—
Eurosondagem	7–13 Jan 2016	1,516	63.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	36.3	—
Eurosondagem	7–13 Jan 2016	1,516	63.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	37.0	—	—
Eurosondagem	16–21 Dec 2015	1,515	62.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	37.5	—
Eurosondagem	16–21 Dec 2015	1,515	62.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	37.9	—	—
UCP–CESOP	5–6 Dec 2015	1,183	57	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	17	—
UCP–CESOP	5–6 Dec 2015	1,183	57	—	—	—	—	—	—	17	—	—
Aximage	4–8 Feb 2015	608	65.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	34.1	—
			65.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	34.3
			62.8	—	—	—	—	37.2	—	—	—	—
			—	59.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	40.4	—
			—	67.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	32.3
			—	54.8	—	—	—	45.2	—	—	—	—
			—	—	24.9	—	—	75.1	—	—	—	—
			—	—	35.2	—	—	—	—	—	64.8	—
			—	—	34.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	65.1
Eurosondagem	8–14 Jan 2015	1,010	47.5	—	—	—	52.5	—	—	—	—	—
			—	45.9	—	—	54.1	—	—	—	—	—
			—	—	44.8	—	55.2	—	—	—	—	—
			48.0	—	—	—	—	52.0	—	—	—	—
			—	46.1	—	—	—	53.9	—	—	—	—
			—	—	43.4	—	—	56.6	—	—	—	—
			61.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	38.9	—	—
			—	56.5	—	—	—	—	—	43.5	—	—
			—	—	58.3	—	—	—	—	41.7	—	—
Eurosondagem	17–21 Nov 2014	1,033	—	—	—	39.7	60.3	—	—	—	—	—
			47.4	—	—	—	52.6	—	—	—	—	—
			—	—	41.3	—	58.7	—	—	—	—	—
			—	44.2	—	—	55.8	—	—	—	—	—
			—	—	—	40.7	—	59.3	—	—	—	—
			48.2	—	—	—	—	51.8	—	—	—	—
			—	—	44.5	—	—	55.5	—	—	—	—
			—	47.5	—	—	—	52.5	—	—	—	—
			—	—	—	55.2	—	—	44.8	—	—	—
			64.9	—	—	—	—	—	35.1	—	—	—
			—	—	58.0	—	—	—	42.0	—	—	—
			—	64.8	—	—	—	—	35.2	—	—	—
			—	—	—	69.5	—	—	—	30.5	—	—
			70.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.8	—	—
			—	—	65.1	—	—	—	—	34.9	—	—
			—	70.6	—	—	—	—	—	29.4	—	—

Leadership polls

Preferred candidate

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Centre-Right/Right

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Rebelo de Sousa	Rui Rio	Santana Lopes	Durão Barroso	Paulo Portas	Marques Mendes	Assunção Esteves	Leonor Beleza	Ferreira Leite	Paulo de Morais	Oth/ Und	Lead
			PSD	PSD	PSD	PSD	CDS	PSD	PSD	PSD	PSD	Ind.

Aximage	12–16 Jul 2015	607	46.2	36.7	—	6.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.6	9.5
Eurosondagem	2–7 Jul 2015	1,025	29.6	24.8	16.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.0	26.7	4.8
Aximage ^[3]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	49.8	35.7	5.6	—	—	—	—	—	7.0	—	1.9	14.1
Aximage ^[4]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	39.7	40.2	4.8	—	—	—	—	—	8.6	—	6.7	0.5
Aximage	6–9 Dec 2013	609	44.2	32.3	4.2	8.2	—	—	—	4.3	—	—	6.8	11.9
Eurosondagem	30 Oct–5 Nov 2013	1,005	29.3	26.4	13.3	6.9	4.8	2.5	2.1	—	—	—	14.7	2.9
Aximage	5–7 Mar 2012	600	40.0	—	9.3	22.9	—	—	—	8.3	—	—	19.5	17.1

Centre-Left/Left

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	António Costa	António Guterres	José Sócrates	António Vitorino	Carvalho da Silva	Ferro Rodrigues	Sampaio da Nóvoa	Maria de Belém	António José Seguro	Oliveira Martins	Henrique Neto	Oth/ Und	Lead
			PS	PS	PS	PS	Ind.	PS	Ind.	PS	PS	Ind.	PS

Aximage	12–16 Jul 2015	607	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.9	32.4	—	18.1	—	23.7	6.5
Eurosondagem	2–7 Jul 2015	1,025	—	—	—	—	—	—	33.3	25.0	—	—	4.8	36.9	8.3
Aximage ^[5]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	—	—	—	39.5	20.0	—	—	25.7	8.8	—	—	6.0	13.8
Aximage ^[4]	3–6 Mar 2015	600	—	—	—	42.4	10.7	—	—	21.1	13.4	—	—	12.4	21.3
Aximage	6–9 Dec 2013	609	43.8	27.3	—	—	6.3	—	3.1	10.4	—	—	—	9.1	16.5
Eurosondagem	30 Oct–5 Nov 2013	1,005	26.6	20.9	13.7	10.0	6.5	3.3	2.2	—	—	—	—	16.8	5.7
Aximage	5–7 Mar 2012	600	33.1	25.4	—	—	10.3	—	—	15.0	—	—	—	16.2	7.7

Approval ratings

The table below lists the evolution of public opinion on the president's performance in office.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Aníbal Cavaco Silva

			Approve	Disapprove	No opinion	Net
					No opinion	Net
Eurosondagem	3–9 Mar 2016	1,005	26.7	40.8	32.5	14.1
Eurosondagem	4–10 Feb 2016	1,010	26.8	40.0	33.2	13.2
Aximage	30–31 Jan 2016	606	24.8	60.9	14.3	36.1
Eurosondagem	1–6 Jan 2016	1,016	26.5	39.4	34.1	12.9
Aximage	2–5 Jan 2016	602	26.5	57.2	16.3	30.7
Eurosondagem	3–9 Dec 2015	1,015	26.3	36.2	37.5	9.9
UCP–CESOP	5–6 Dec 2015	1,183	48	52	—	4
Aximage	28 Nov–2 Dec 2015	605	27.0	63.4	9.6	36.4
Eurosondagem	29 Oct–3 Nov 2015	1,036	29.9	35.6	34.5	5.7
Aximage	4–7 Sep 2015	602	24.1	59.3	16.6	35.2
Eurosondagem	27 Aug–2 Sep 2015	1,040	30.9	32.0	37.1	1.1
Eurosondagem	29 Jul–4 Aug 2015	1,030	31.6	33.8	34.6	2.2
Aximage	12–16 Jul 2015	607	25.6	61.5	12.9	35.9
Eurosondagem	2–7 Jul 2015	1,025	31.3	34.4	34.3	3.1
UCP–CESOP	13–16 Jun 2015	1,048	46	54	—	8
Eurosondagem	4–9 Jun 2015	1,030	30.1	35.6	34.3	5.5
Aximage	31 May–4 Jun 2015	598	24.0	63.8	12.2	39.8
Eurosondagem	7–12 May 2015	1,021	29.4	35.9	34.7	6.5
Aximage	7–10 May 2015	605	23.0	65.3	11.7	42.3
Eurosondagem	9–15 Apr 2015	1,025	28.5	36.0	34.5	7.5
Aximage	4–8 Apr 2015	602	20.1	67.4	12.5	47.3
Eurosondagem	5–10 Mar 2015	1,005	29.9	36.1	34.0	6.2
Aximage	3–6 Mar 2015	600	23.1	64.4	12.5	41.3
Eurosondagem	5–11 Feb 2015	1,015	31.6	32.8	35.6	1.2
Aximage	4–8 Feb 2015	608	25.5	62.1	12.4	36.6
Eurosondagem	8–14 Jan 2015	1,010	32.2	33.0	34.8	0.8
Aximage	9–12 Jan 2015	601	28.2	59.8	12.0	31.6
Eurosondagem	4–10 Dec 2014	1,036	33.6	31.9	34.5	1.7
Aximage	1–4 Dec 2014	607	28.0	61.7	10.3	33.7
Eurosondagem	6–11 Nov 2014	1,022	34.1	31.4	34.5	2.7
Aximage	7–10 Nov 2014	603	29.6	61.1	9.3	31.5
UCP–CESOP	11–13 Oct 2014	1,064	46	54	—	8
Eurosondagem	2–7 Oct 2014	1,021	35.6	30.4	34.0	5.2
Aximage	1–4 Oct 2014	609	33.3	57.5	9.2	24.2
Eurosondagem	4–9 Sep 2014	1,011	36.5	29.7	33.8	6.8
Aximage	31 Aug–3 Sep 2014	602	32.1	51.9	16.0	19.8
Eurosondagem	31 Jul–6 Aug 2014	1,033	35.7	29.0	35.3	6.7
Eurosondagem	3–9 Jul 2014	1,014	38.8	29.6	31.6	9.2
Aximage	4–7 Jul 2014	593	30.5	54.8	14.7	24.3
Eurosondagem	2–5 Jun 2014	1,025	36.0	31.3	32.7	4.7
Aximage	1–4 Jun 2014	608	28.0	7.7	64.3	20.3
Eurosondagem	1–7 May 2014	1,005	38.1	30.1	31.8	8.0
Aximage	2–5 May 2014	605	31.3	56.5	12.2	25.2
UCP–CESOP	12–14 Apr 2014	1,117	48	52	—	4
Aximage	9–12 Apr 2014	613	33.3	55.8	10.9	22.5
Eurosondagem	3–9 Apr 2014	1,011	39.6	29.7	30.7	9.9
Eurosondagem	6–12 Mar 2014	1,021	41.5	29.4	29.1	12.1
Aximage	8–11 Mar 2014	587	34.6	53.6	11.8	19.0
Aximage	9–12 Feb 2014	604	31.6	58.9	9.5	27.3
Eurosondagem	6–12 Feb 2014	1,025	40.0	31.3	28.7	8.7
Eurosondagem	9–15 Jan 2014	1,010	38.9	31.8	29.3	7.1
Aximage	7–10 Jan 2014	601	31.6	56.9	11.5	25.3
Eurosondagem	5–10 Dec 2013	1,035	38.0	32.4	29.6	5.6
Aximage	6–9 Dec 2013	609	32.6	54.2	13.2	21.6
Marktest	19–21 Nov 2013	803	18.0	65.4	16.6	47.4
Aximage	6–9 Nov 2013	602	23.8	65.7	10.5	41.9
Eurosondagem	30 Oct–5 Nov 2013	1,005	36.7	33.1	30.2	3.6
Marktest	22–25 Oct 2013	803	19.3	61.0	19.7	41.7
Eurosondagem	2–8 Oct 2013	1,010	36.1	34.5	29.4	1.6
Marktest	17–19 Sep 2013	801	21.3	60.3	18.4	39.0
Eurosondagem	5–11 Sep 2013	1,038	33.5	34.2	32.3	0.7
Aximage	1–3 Sep 2013	609	25.9	61.9	12.2	36.0
Eurosondagem	25–31 Jul 2013	1,020	33.0	35.8	31.2	2.8
UCP–CESOP	27–29 Jul 2013	1,096	46	54	—	8
Marktest	16–18 Jul 2013	804	18.8	62.2	19.0	43.4
Aximage	8–11 Jul 2013	603	23.9	64.8	11.3	40.9
Eurosondagem	5–10 Jul 2013	1,007	29.8	35.3	34.9	5.5
Aximage	4–7 Jun 2013	599	18.4	67.0	14.6	48.6
Eurosondagem	30 May–4 Jun 2013	1,028	31.2	33.9	34.9	2.7
Marktest	27–30 May 2013	802	18.3	65.8	15.9	47.5
Aximage	7–10 May 2013	604	21.0	63.9	15.1	42.9
Eurosondagem	2–8 May 2013	1,009	31.8	33.0	35.2	1.2
Eurosondagem	5–10 Apr 2013	1,025	32.9	31.7	35.4	1.2
UCP–CESOP	9–11 Mar 2013	949	48	52	—	4
Eurosondagem	28 Feb–5 Mar 2013	1,022	36.2	32.6	31.2	3.6
Aximage	5–8 Feb 2013	602	24.2	61.3	14.5	37.1
Eurosondagem	30 Jan–5 Feb 2013	1,011	39.6	30.8	29.6	8.8
Marktest	15–21 Jan 2013	803	20.3	62.8	16.9	42.5
Aximage	6–9 Jan 2013	603	24.2	62.3	13.5	38.1
Eurosondagem	3–8 Jan 2013	1,010	37.6	31.8	30.6	5.8
Eurosondagem	5–11 Dec 2012	1,034	36.9	33.0	30.1	3.9
Aximage	4–7 Dec 2012	609	19.2	63.8	17.0	44.6
Eurosondagem	7–13 Nov 2012	1,033	36.8	32.6	30.6	4.2
Aximage	30 Oct–6 Nov 2012	602	18.0	62.2	19.8	44.2
Eurosondagem	4–9 Oct 2012	1,021	34.1	31.3	34.6	2.8
Aximage	1–4 Oct 2012	600	20.2	57.8	22.0	37.6
Marktest	17–20 Sep 2012	805	16.5	68.2	15.3	51.7
UCP–CESOP	15–17 Sep 2012	1,132	49	51	—	2
Eurosondagem	10–13 Sep 2012	1,037	35.1	29.9	35.0	5.2
Aximage	3–6 Sep 2012	600	27.0	50.2	22.8	23.2
Eurosondagem	9–14 Aug 2012	1,011	34.4	31.8	33.8	2.6
Marktest	17–20 Jul 2012	803	23.4	60.9	15.7	37.5
Eurosondagem	5–10 Jul 2012	1,036	33.8	32.8	33.4	1.0
Marktest	19–22 Jun 2012	800	28.6	56.4	15.0	27.8
Eurosondagem	7–12 Jun 2012	1,022	34.4	34.1	31.5	0.3
Aximage	4–6 Jun 2012	600	24.4	55.1	20.5	30.7
UCP–CESOP	26–28 May 2012	1,366	56	44	—	12
Marktest	22–24 May 2012	807	28.4	53.8	17.8	25.4
Eurosondagem	10–15 May 2012	1,011	34.9	33.2	31.9	1.7
Aximage	2–5 May 2012	600	23.1	57.5	19.4	34.4
Marktest	17–21 Apr 2012	810	21.9	62.3	15.8	40.4
Eurosondagem	11–17 Apr 2012	1,036	37.1	32.4	30.5	4.7
Aximage	3–5 Apr 2012	600	20.2	60.7	18.8	40.5
Eurosondagem	8–13 Mar 2012	1,021	39.2	33.2	27.6	6.0
Aximage	5–7 Mar 2012	600	21.5	59.3	19.2	37.8
Marktest	14–22 Feb 2012	800	23.6	61.1	15.3	37.5
Eurosondagem	2–7 Feb 2012	1,010	43.8	31.8	24.4	12.0
Aximage	1–4 Feb 2012	600	21.9	57.1	21.0	35.2
Marktest	17–22 Jan 2012	800	31.9	51.2	16.9	19.3
Eurosondagem	5–10 Jan 2012	1,064	47.0	25.3	27.7	21.7
Aximage	3–6 Jan 2012	600	38.3	36.5	25.2	1.8
Eurosondagem	7–13 Dec 2011	1,033	50.8	24.4	24.8	26.4
Aximage	5–8 Dec 2011	600	33.3	37.9	28.8	4.6
Marktest	15–19 Nov 2011	804	41.9	35.3	22.8	6.6
Eurosondagem	10–15 Nov 2011	1,025	52.3	23.0	24.7	29.3
Aximage	7–10 Nov 2011	600	34.5	36.2	29.3	1.7
Eurosondagem	20–25 Oct 2011	1,032	51.9	24.1	24.0	27.8
Marktest	18–22 Oct 2011	809	34.2	45.2	20.6	11.0
Aximage	3–5 Oct 2011	600	37.8	32.8	29.4	5.0
Eurosondagem	22–27 Sep 2011	1,036	50.7	26.0	23.3	24.7
Marktest	20–23 Sep 2011	804	39.9	37.1	23.0	2.8
UCP–CESOP	10–11 Sep 2011	1,457	72	28	—	44
Aximage	7–10 Sep 2011	600	37.6	28.1	34.3	9.5
Eurosondagem	26–30 Aug 2011	1,025	54.1	24.4	21.5	29.7
Eurosondagem	14–19 Jul 2011	1,022	56.8	25.0	18.2	31.8
Aximage	5–8 Jul 2011	600	53.0	21.2	25.8	31.8
Eurosondagem	26–28 Jun 2011	1,010	59.4	26.0	14.6	33.4
Marktest	28–31 May 2011	1,208	44.7	36.7	18.6	8.0
UCP–CESOP	21–22 May 2011	1,490	73	27	—	46
Marktest	9–10 May 2011	805	47.5	36.0	16.5	11.5
Aximage	29 Apr–2 May 2011	600	38.1	37.4	24.5	0.7
UCP–CESOP	30 Apr–1 May 2011	1,370	75	25	—	50
Marktest	15–17 Apr 2011	805	35.3	46.6	18.1	11.3
UCP–CESOP	2–3 Apr 2011	1,288	51	37	12	14
Aximage	28–30 Mar 2011	600	42.3	34.6	23.1	7.7
Eurosondagem	27–30 Mar 2011	1,021	51.4	32.6	16.0	18.8
Marktest	18–23 Mar 2011	805	47.0	33.6	19.4	13.4
Aximage	3–7 Mar 2011	600	50.3	23.7	26.0	26.6
Eurosondagem	23–28 Feb 2011	1,021	54.1	32.6	13.3	21.5
Marktest	17–23 Feb 2011	797	49.4	29.4	21.2	20.0
Aximage	1–3 Feb 2011	600	52.1	28.1	19.8	24.0
Eurosondagem	3–8 Feb 2011	1,025	52.5	32.0	15.5	20.5

References

↑ Rui Rio: 21.5
↑ Rui Rio: 15.1
↑ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
1 2 All voters asked.
↑ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

External links

ERC - Official publication of polls

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[Rio2-1] Rui Rio: 21.5

[Rio1-2] Rui Rio: 15.1

[Right-3] Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.

[All-4] 1 2 All voters asked.

[Left-5] Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

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[2]

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