Opinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese presidential election

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In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Graphical summary

Polling

  Exit poll

Date(s)
administered		Poll sourceSample size Marcelo2015.png Maria de Belem Roseira.jpg Antonio Novoa 2013-06-19 (reduzida).jpg No image.png EdgarSilva2016.jpg Marisa Matias 2014 crop.jpg PauloMorais(quadrado).png No image.png No image.png Others/
Undecided
Marcelo
PSD, CDS-PP 		Belém
Ind. 		Nóvoa
Ind. 		Neto
Ind. 		E. Silva
PCP 		Matias
BE 		Morais
Ind. 		Ferreira
Ind. 		V. Silva
Ind. 		Sequeira
Ind.
24 January 2016 Election Results 48.7%52.04.222.90.83.910.12.20.23.20.3
—
24 Jan UCP–CESOP 31,01849.0–54.03.0–5.022.0–25.00.0–2.03.0–5.09.0–11.01.0–3.00.0–1.02.0–4.00.0–1.0
—
24 Jan Eurosondagem 43,67850.1–54.93.3–4.821.1–24.80.7–1.43.0–4.18.8–11.31.4–2.50.3–0.72.6–3.70.3–0.7
—
24 Jan Intercampus 15,48150.9–55.72.9–5.919.3–23.3
—
1.9–4.98.8–12.4
—
—
—
—
5.5–8.5
16–20 Jan Aximage 1,30151.59.022.60.85.26.62.30.11.80.1
14–20 Jan Intercampus 1,04351.810.116.92.34.67.92.90.52.50.6
14–19 Jan Eurosondagem 2,02555.013.319.01.13.75.32.20.10.20.116.1 [1]
16–17 Jan UCP–CESOP 3,34052.08.022.01.03.08.03.00.52.00.5
11–14 Jan Consulmark2 1,00453.010.523.41.02.54.03.80.11.50.3
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 1,51654.816.316.81.14.04.81.60.20.20.217.7 [2]
2–5 Jan Aximage 60252.911.816.91.02.92.82.98.8
2016
16–21 Dec Eurosondagem 1,51552.518.116.91.34.74.81.7
5–6 Dec UCP–CESOP 1,18362.014.015.01.03.03.01.01.0
28 Nov–2 Dec Aximage 60554.613.413.20.41.92.41.113.0
13–18 Nov Eurosondagem 1,51048.018.916.72.25.26.91.11.0
31 Oct–4 Nov Aximage 60356.913.115.32.112.9
26 Sep–1 Oct Aximage 1,38729.714.713.01.1 JS (10.3)31.2 [3]
23–30 Sep Intercampus 1,01349.317.010.11.422.2 [4]
2015

Hypothetical runoff polling

Date(s)
administered		Poll sourceSample size Marcelo2015.png Rui Rio.jpg Pedro Santana Lopes 01.jpg Barroso EPP Summit October 2010.jpg Antonio Guterres 1-1.jpg Antonio Vitorino Politico.jpg Carvalho da Silva (squared).jpg Antonio Novoa 2013-06-19 (reduzida).jpg Maria de Belem Roseira.jpg JaimeGama2008(qd).jpg
Marcelo
PSD 		Rio
PSD 		Santana
PSD 		Barroso
PSD 		Guterres
PS 		Vitorino
PS 		Silva
Ind. 		Nóvoa
Ind. 		Belém
PS 		Gama
PS
14–20 Jan Intercampus 1,04368.4-------31.6-
67.0------33.0--
14–19 Jan Eurosondagem 2,02565.2-------34.8-
64.8------35.2--
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 1,51663.7-------36.3-
63.0------37.0--
2016
16–21 Dec Eurosondagem 1,51562.5-------37.5-
62.1------37.9--
5–6 Dec UCP–CESOP 1,18357.0-------17.0-
57.0------17.0--
4–8 Feb Aximage 60865.9-------34.1-
65.7--------34.3
62.8----37.2----
-59.6------40.4-
-67.7-------32.3
-54.8---45.2----
--24.9--75.1----
--35.2-----64.8-
--34.9------65.1
8–14 Jan Eurosondagem 1,01047.5---52.5-----
-45.9--54.1-----
--44.8-55.2-----
48.0----52.0----
-46.1---53.9----
--43.4--56.6----
61.1------38.9--
-56.5-----43.5--
--58.3----41.7--
2015
17–21 Nov Eurosondagem 1,033---39.760.3-----
47.4---52.6-----
--41.3-58.7-----
-44.2--55.8-----
---40.7-59.3----
48.2----51.8----
--44.5--55.5----
-47.5---52.5----
---55.2--44.8---
64.9-----35.1---
--58.0---42.0---
-64.8----35.2---
---69.5---30.5--
70.2------29.8--
--65.1----34.9--
-70.6-----29.4--
2014

Leadership polls

Preferred candidate

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Centre-Right/Right

Date(s)
administered		Poll sourceSample size Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.png Rui Rio (cropped).jpg Pedro Santana Lopes 01.jpg Barroso.jpg Paulo Portas 2009 (cropped).jpg EPP Summit 21 June 2007 - European People's Party (cropped).png Assuncao Esteves (18272649550) (cropped).jpg No image.png Manuela Ferreira Leite.jpg PauloMorais.png Others/
Undecided
Marcelo
PSD 		Rio
PSD 		Santana
PSD 		Barroso
PSD 		Portas
CDS–PP 		Mendes
PSD 		Esteves
PSD 		Beleza
PSD 		Leite
PSD 		Morais
Ind.
12–16 Jul Aximage 60746.236.7-6.5------10.6
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,02529.624.816.9------2.026.7
3–6 Mar Aximage [5] 60049.835.75.6-----7.0-1.9
Aximage [6] 39.740.24.8-----8.6-6.7
2015
6–9 Dez Aximage 60944.232.34.28.2---4.3--6.8
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,00529.326.413.36.94.82.52.1---14.7
2013
5–7 Mar Aximage 60040.0-9.322.9---8.3--19.5
2012

Centre-Left/Left

Date(s)
administered		Poll sourceSample size Antonio Costa img 6536.jpg Antonio Guterres 1-1.jpg Socrates2006-2t.jpg AntonioVitorino.png Carvalho da Silva (cropped).jpg Ferro Rodrigues.jpg Antonio Novoa 06-05-2013.jpg Maria de Belem Roseira.jpg Antonio Jose Seguro, Europeias 2014 (cropped).png Guilherme d'Oliveira Martins.jpg No image.png Others/
Undecided
Costa
PS 		Guterres
PS 		Sócrates
PS 		Vitorino
PS 		Silva
Ind. 		Rodrigues
PS 		Nóvoa
Ind. 		Belém
PS 		Seguro
PS 		Oliveira Martins
Ind. 		Neto
PS
12–16 Jul Aximage 607------25.932.4-18.1-23.7
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,025------33.325.0--4.836.9
3–6 Mar Aximage [7] 600---39.520.0--25.78.8--6.0
Aximage [6] ---42.410.7--21.113.4--12.4
2015
6–9 Dez Aximage 60943.827.3--6.3-3.110.4---9.1
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,00526.620.913.710.06.53.32.2----16.8
2013
5–7 Mar Aximage 60033.125.4--10.3--15.0---16.2
2012

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References

  1. ↑ Undecided voters: 16.1
  2. ↑ Undecided voters: 17.7
  3. ↑ Rui Rio: 21.5
  4. ↑ Rui Rio: 15.1
  5. ↑ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
  6. 1 2 All voters asked.
  7. ↑ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.
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